'Chechen power vacuum is Putin's nightmare' Author : Mark van Harreveld Vladimir Putin is very concerned about a possible power vacuum in Chechnya, the semi-autonomous Caucasus state of Ramzan Kadyrov, writes security expert Luke Coffey of the American think tank Hudson Institute. For some time now, persistent reports and rumors have been circulating that Kadyrov is seriously ill, is preparing an exit and may want to move to the Arab Emirates. A poorly arranged succession is a nightmare for Putin, Russia has had anything but pleasant experiences with the Caucasus republic.
In early May, Kadyrov had a conversation with Putin, and according to observers, the dictator asked his Kremlin boss to be relieved of his post. Kadyrov's real intentions remain a mystery, and in the past Kadyrov has threatened to resign, often to obtain concessions and support from Moscow. Because the relationship between Ramzan Kadyrov and Putin has always been very transactional, according to Coffey. 'The president gets a loyal lieutenant who rules one of Russia's most unstable regions with an iron fist, and in return Kadyrov enjoys protection from the Kremlin.' Moscow subsidizes Chechnya generously, Kadyrov publicly demonstrates his unwavering loyalty to Putin, and he and his closest associates can go about their business with unchecked brutality.
Read also Chechen dictator Kadyrov visits Putin, may resign Big problem If Kadyrov resigns, Coffey believes that could create a major problem for Putin at a time when he can least afford it. However, it is unclear what the situation is now: either Kadyrov is again after Russian concessions (the day after he asked to resign, Kadyrov visited Putin again), or he is actually ill. The stories that Kadyrov is suffering from pancreatic necrosis are persistent, according to reports he was in hospital for a long time and recent videos on social media show that he can no longer speak properly.
Real or fake, it is very inconvenient for Putin. Because every transition of power or power vacuum in the Northern Caucasus worries Moscow and the Kremlin has every reason to be - Chechnya has been a ticking time bomb on Russia's lap since the times of Tolstoy, and Putin also has bad experiences with the rebellious Caucasus state. Between 1999 and 2009 he fought the Second Chechen War and installed Akhmad Kadyrov, father of, as president of the republic. Ramzan succeeded his father in 2007.
Read also 'If Chechen Kadyrov falls away, that will be an extra worry for Putin' Since 2000, there has been a government in exile in Western Europe, with Akhmed Zakayev as prime minister. Zakayev was previously deputy prime minister and foreign minister when Chechnya was still independent. This government is now largely based in Kyiv, with at least two Chechen units fighting on the Ukrainian side. According to Coffey, this government in exile, which therefore has an experienced army at its disposal, will try to play a major role when the death or departure of Kadyrov leads to the inevitable power vacuum in the republic.
Power struggle "If Kadyrov steps down, there will likely be a significant power struggle over his successor. Various Russian power centers will put forward their preferred candidates. The outcome - a smooth transition behind the scenes or a violent conflict - could significantly affect Russia's internal stability," said Coffey, who noted that Russia's main security service, the FSB, will try to arrange the succession.
'The FSB is believed to be supporting two possible successors: Magomed Daudov, speaker of the Chechen parliament and a close ally of Kadyrov, and Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen special forces and lieutenant general in the Russian army. The leadership of the National Guard reportedly prefers Adam Delimkhanov, a deputy in the State Duma and Kadyrov's cousin.'
Read also Putin confidant Kadyrov possibly poisoned Wildcard candidate But there are other contenders on the Chechen coast: one is what Coffey calls a “wild card candidate,” Musa Bazhaev, a Russian-Chechen businessman and chairman of Alliance Group, the huge Russian business conglomerate. He may be of interest to the Kremlin because of his promises of economic development. Finally, it is also possible that Kadyrov is trying to keep leadership within his family by having his 17-year-old son Adam take over. Despite his youth, Adam has been given increasing responsibility, overseeing Chechen units in the National Guard and all police forces in the region. His age and lack of experience, however, could pose significant obstacles.
Putin will not make hasty decisions, Coffey believes. According to the analyst, he is focused on the negotiations with the White House on the war in Ukraine and will not want another major crisis on his plate. 'Before accepting Kadyrov's resignation, Putin will probably demand a clear succession plan to prevent destabilization. But with so many competing interests, preventing a power struggle - or even an armed conflict - may be easier said than done.'
Read also Rift between Putin and 'dirty handyman' Kadyrov, 'Chechen leader preparing exit' Chechen Wars For those who have forgotten, it was not until 1864 that Tsar Alexander II gained control of the Northern Caucasus after a long and bloody campaign. The region has remained troubled ever since, so much so that in 1944, Joseph Stalin deported nearly half a million Chechens and Ingush to Central Asia. In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic declared independence as the Chechen Republic of Chechnya. Then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin invaded the small country, starting the First Chechen War (1994–1996), which ended in a disastrous Russian defeat and a fragile peace.
Chechnya was de facto independent, but politically very unstable. The country seemed to earn its GDP by kidnapping, looting in neighboring countries, and stealing and reselling oil.
In October 1999, newly appointed Prime Minister Vladimir Putin launched the Second Chechen War. By February 2000, Russian forces had all but destroyed the capital Grozny, and over time Moscow ousted the Chechen leadership, replacing it with local allies loyal to the Kremlin. In 2009, Russia declared the war officially over, and since then fighting has been confined to the border region with Dagestan by Chechen supporters of the caliphate.
