On Tuesday, Trump made his surprise announcement that the Houthis had agreed to stop attacking shipping lanes in the Red Sea, and said that the U.S. would halt its attacks on the Iran-backed group.
Thomas Juneau, a Middle East specialist at the University of Ottawa said “It is at best a very unstable agreement The Houthis’ ambitions in the Red Sea, against Israel and in the region in general will not wind down,”
“This allows President Trump to claim victory, but ultimately, it is a very limited” [hollow] win, he said.
The Yemeni rebels have framed the ceasefire as a victory, regularly announcing throughout the escalation that they shot down MQ-9 drones and at least three F-18 aircraft.
These losses highlight “billions spent by the U.S.,” said Mohammed Albasha, of the U.S.-based Basha Report Risk Advisory, noting that “none of their senior commanders were harmed.”
The group operating out of hard-to-access mountain strongholds has withstood a decade of war against a well-armed, Saudi-led coalition.
Michael Shurkin of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank said 1. “The nature of Houthi rule and how they operate makes them doubly resistant to air strikes,” 2. “The Houthis as an organization are dispersed and rely on tribal networks. 3. They are classic guerrilla fighters and proficient at asymmetrical warfare,”
With Hamas and Hezbollah decimated by Israel, the Houthis have become Iran’s strongest ally. “Their importance has increased,” said Juneau, adding that they had become “more indispensable in Iran’s eyes.”