NOS News • Yesterday, 6:54 PM Why would IS attack Moscow? Four questions and answers
Heavily armed men entered a concert hall in Krasnogorsk, near Moscow, last night. They opened fire on visitors and staff, detonated explosives and started a fire. At least 133 people have died.
Although Russian President Putin tries to establish a link with Ukraine without evidence, experts and Western sources point to the terrorist organization IS as the perpetrator of the attack.
But why would Russia be a target for IS? This requires consideration, among other things, of Russia's (military) role in conflicts in Syria, among other places. Four questions and answers:
Why is IS mentioned as a possible perpetrator for the attack in Moscow? Yesterday, the attack was quickly claimed by a Telegram account attributed to the terrorist group IS. "Islamic State fighters have attacked a large group of Christians in the town of Krasnogorsk on the outskirts of the Russian capital Moscow, killing and wounding many and causing widespread destruction before safely returning to their base," the message read. Telegram channel. This afternoon the same Telegram account shared a photo of four people who allegedly committed the attack for IS.
A US official last night called the IS claim "credible". According to this anonymous American source, the US has warned Russia in recent weeks about a possible attack by IS branch ISIS-K.
This branch is said to have "concentrated on Russia in recent months". It is not clear whether the Telegram account in which the attack is claimed is indeed from this IS branch.
Putin has dismissed the terror warnings, Hubert Smeets of the knowledge platform Window on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus told NOS. "According to Putin, these warnings were only intended to destabilize Russia." Putin does not respond to IS' Telegram message claiming responsibility for the attack. He states that the perpetrators, who have now been arrested, were on their way to Ukraine and have contacts there. Putin does not provide any evidence for this claim, with which Putin suggests a link between the terrorists and Ukraine.
What is ISIS-K? ISIS-K, also known as ISKP or ISPK, is a branch of IS. The name stands for Islamic State Province Khorasan, referring to the old Persian name for the region in which the terrorist organization operates.
The split occurred in 2014 in eastern Afghanistan. Terrorism expert Bibi van Ginkel tells the NOS that this branch is active in Afghanistan, Pakistan and to a small extent in Iran. "But they also have all kinds of connections with other regional IS branches, especially those in the Caucasus."
The IS branch is particularly strong in Afghanistan, although the Afghan Taliban government is relatively successful in combating the terrorist group. This emerges from a recent analysis by the think tank The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. According to the think tank, ISIS-K has therefore expanded its terrorist horizons; In 2022 and 2023, the group committed attacks in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and the Maldives. Attacks in Germany, India and Turkey were thwarted.
In an attack in Iran earlier this year that killed 84 people, the US intercepted information indicating that ISIS-K was responsible, according to Reuters sources.
How does ISIS-K compare to the Islamic State? The terrorist group that once renamed 88,000 square kilometers in Syria and Iraq into a 'caliphate' lost its last piece of land in 2019. IS then fragmented into various cells spread across the world. Larger and smaller IS cells emerged in Africa, but also in Central Asia (in countries such as Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan).
"With the end of the caliphate, we already knew that IS had not yet been defeated," says Van Ginkel. ISIS-K has gained in strength, especially since the dismantling of the caliphate, such as in Afghanistan. "All kinds of small groups with extremist ideas are already active there. They are trying to involve ISIS-K."
The group was able to establish the caliphate at the time due to the political and military vacuum in Syria due to the civil war and a weak Iraqi central government. ISIS has made a specialty of exploiting weak regimes and unresolved local conflicts.
According to experts, ISIS-K has benefited from the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan and the US withdrawal. The collapse of the US-backed Afghan army gave the ISKP opportunities to seize weapons. The Taliban's lack of air power has given the group an opportunity to gain and hold ground.
Why would this group target Moscow? According to Van Ginkel, previous attacks in the region were aimed at defending extremist Islamic ideas. "Russia has played a pretty important role in Syria in the fight against IS, so the attack in Moscow may also have something to do with that," she says. Russia is a loyal ally of President Assad, who has ruled Syria in a ruthless, bloody manner for years. With Russia's help, Assad also fought IS.
Furthermore, the Kremlin maintains a relatively good relationship with the Taliban, which is therefore hostile to ISIS-K. Although the Taliban are still officially classified as a terrorist organization in Russia, their leaders have been received in Russia several times. In 2022, ISIS-K claimed a deadly attack on the Russian embassy in the Afghan capital Kabul.
According to the aforementioned anonymous US official, ISIS-K accuses Russia of "having the blood of Muslims on its hands." ISIS-K refers to the Russian interventions in Afghanistan, Syria and Chechnya.
Earlier this month, the Russian security service FSB announced that it had thwarted an IS attack. According to IS, the attack in Moscow should be seen "within the context of the war between Islamic State and countries fighting against Islam."
