Some Africa specialists fear that Putin will press him into service to advise Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his mercenary force, the Wagner Group, which is playing a key role fighting on the ground in Ukraine and has been implicated in some of the worst war crimes attributed to Russian forces. Prigozhin and Bout are both believed to be linked to Russia’s military intelligence agency known as GRU, and may well have crossed paths in Africa where they were both working after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Analysts say that even if Bout steers clear of the war in Ukraine, he can still do a lot of damage in Africa as the Wagner Group expands Russia’s presence, trading in timber, minerals and other natural resources.

“Wagner is Russia’s coercive tool in Africa,” says Joseph Siegle, head of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, an arm of the Pentagon.

“While the numbers that are deployed in Africa may seem small,” Siegle says, “in fact, they’re having very far-reaching political effects to keep regimes that are supportive of Moscow in power. This has wide-reaching geostrategic implications for Russia’s involvement in Africa. Wagner is helping prop up some of the more destabilizing forces on the continent. Russia’s engagement is making them even more unstable.”

This undated photograph handed out by French military shows three Russian mercenaries, right, in northern Mali. | French Army via AP

“Africa is a great profit center for the Wagner Group,” says Tim Wittig, an American scholar based in South Africa, specializing in studying threat finance and wildlife trafficking. Wittig says that Bout’s logistical skills, contacts and discipline, far superior to those displayed by Wagner Group, “could really help solidify Wagner’s footprint in Africa and make it harder to dislodge.”

Tom O’Connor, a former senior FBI agent specializing in domestic terrorism, now a consultant, takes the view that Putin’s play is more likely aimed at stirring up political division inside the United States, in part by refusing to include a former Marine, Paul Whelan, in the swap for Griner.

“Taking Paul Whelan off the table is strategic on Putin’s part,” O’Connor wrote. “Reaction in many camps has been to attack the administration. ... Republican leaders, who have already said they are going to stop payments to assist Ukraine, are outwardly attacking Biden and making continued Ukraine support more difficult. Putin released Griner … to continue efforts to inflame the Right against the Left in the U.S. The end result, he hopes, is less support to Ukraine and to continue his efforts to divide U.S. population. Score one for Putin.”