Definitely agree that the Colombos are closest to death's door - and three civil wars and three decades of nepotistic leadership later, how could they not be? Few if any viable leadership candidates and the quality guys they do have are getting awfully old. Seems like the smartest guys around that borgata - like Michael Persico - long ago figured out that its best not to be an official member and to just get rich trading on the association instead.

Also agree that in a weird sort of way, the Bonannos are one of the stronger families with long term prospects because of the family ties and the Sicilian connections. In fact, they're probably unnecessarily hampered at the moment by lacklustre leadership.

Genovese should in theory be strongest, but you have to wonder who's going up in the ranks? Could it be a huge, strong family that one day hits a wall? If they are recruiting successfully, how are they getting the success other families aren't getting? I rather suspect that the Genovese are slowly going the way of Chicago - powerful, yes, profitable, yes - but just getting older and older with each passing year. Hard to know what's going on in there.

Gambino's are big enough and have the Sicilian connection that they should be pretty well OK. Also agree that if the Colombos DID fold, it would be most likely to the Gambino's benefit.

Lucchese I would think are doing OK for now - DeSantis and Dellorusso seem to have provided some stability and Madonna, Crea et al are doing their time like men. But like all of the above, its tough to imagine that they'd have any more than half a dozen capable, *SMART* and tough guys that are real long-term leadership material. And if the talent pool is really that shallow then...it may be only a matter of time.

Around the rest of the country, the prospects are bleak although like others here, I suspect more is going on than anyone knows about.

In my town, there was always a historical presence of mob guys whose influence peaked in the mid 70's - and those of them who are still around will lend money and take bets. One in particular is well known for sophisticated scams and money laundering. And while they would almost certainly not kill you if you didn't pay them, I guarantee you that not paying promptly would be a very bad idea. You see these old guys hanging around any one of a couple of Italian coffee shops and from an outsider's perspective, its almost as much now a social thing as it is anything else. I don't think any of them see a resurgence in their organization. I wonder if that is not a distant early warning as to how things will ultimately go in the bigger cities where they are surviving for the moment on their density but will ultimately face the same issues in time.