I want to revisit some familiar issues involving Fredo, Roth and Michael:

First, did Michael suspect Fredo before the Superman show gaffe? I don’t think Michael believed that Fredo was actively complicit in the Tahoe shooting. When he told Hagen, “Right now you’re the only one I completely trust,” I think he might have meant to add “…to run the family while I’m away.” His statement about Fredo: “…he’s got a good heart, but he’s weak and stupid, and this is life and death,” meant that he wasn’t confident in Fredo’s ability to protect the family—not necessarily that he thought Fredo had a role in the shooting, or would try again.

Second, if Michael didn’t completely trust Fredo, why did he tell him, in Havana: “Can I trust you with something?” and then reveal that he was going to have Roth killed? If Michael’s lack of trust of Fredo centered on his ability to be temporary Don rather than being in cahoots with Roth in the shooting, then Michael was simply letting his brother in on his plans. When Fredo asked what he could do, Michael said, “Just go along as if you know nothing”—not trusting Fredo to take an active role, but perhaps using Fredo to keep up the deception that Michael’s relationship with Roth was still good. Michael did give Fredo a couple of searching looks—in the hotel room when Fredo asked if there was anyone in Havana that he knew; and at the nightclub, when Michael introduced him to Johnny Ola. But again, I don’t think that Michael suspected Fredo of actively participating in the Tahoe plot. That would explain why he looked so devastated when Fredo made his fatal gaffe at the Superman show.

Third, did Michael ever consider giving Fredo a pass after Havana? Maybe—just maybe. Certainly Michael wanted Fredo to return to the US with him, not out of brotherly love but to learn as much as possible from Fredo. Ever-practical Michael also probably wanted to assure that Fredo didn’t fall into the hands of the Cuban authorities and perhaps implicate Michael in Roth’s murder (Michael didn’t learn that Roth survived until he got back to the US). But I think he may have meant it when he told Tom,”…tell him everything's all right. Tell him I know Roth misled him -- and he didn't know they were planning to kill me.” Michael may have wanted to believe it. But, after the meeting in the boathouse, when Fredo screamed out all his resentment and anger at Michael, he knew that there was no way he could let his brother live: with Fredo complicit in one attempt on his life, and with so much jealousy and bad feeling still bottled up in him, Michael would never feel safe with Fredo alive.

Tunbull, I think that when Fredo and Michael have a drink in Havana, Michael is carefully feeling him out. I think that there may have been some doubts about Fredo, but I don't think that Michael truly suspected him. He may have thought that Fredo inadvertently gave something away, but given his reaction to Fredo's Johnny Ola comment during the Superman show, I agree that the revelation hit Michael very, very hard.

And yes, I do believe that he was thinking of giving Fredo a pass. Perhaps he would ostracize him, but I don't think he considered killing his brother, until that day in the boathouse. When Fredo revealed his resentment and anger at his father and brother for what he perceived as a lack of faith in his abilities, when Michael understood the EXTENT of Fredo's anger during his vitriolic rambling, then Michael knew that Fredo would be a danger to his Family, and therefore his family. He knew that he couldn't afford to let Fredo live.

What I did find interesting was Fredo's inability to be angry with his father. I believe that all three of Vito's sons adored their father and couldn't bring themselves to go against him, even after his death. Michael changed his destiny (or fulfilled his destiny, depending on how you look at it) our of love for his father. Fredo, who felt he was passed over in favor of his brother, was so angry at Vito for doing it, that he betrayed the family. And yet they never, ever criticized their father.

Well,he should not have not killed his own flesh and blood,no matter what the reasoning behind it.That was an ugly and terrible thing to do.I believe that Fredo really was in the dark about Roth wanting to kill Micheal. He was sweet and honest,(in his heart)and he would have never willingly participated in somthing like that.Like the time that Connie told Mike to forgive him beacuase he is "sweet and helpless without him". And when Fredo embraced Mike,that is true. Which is why I do not think Micheal believed that Fredo had anything to do with the shooting.

Yes, SB. Michael may have had in mind that Fredo might have blabbed something of interest to Roth or Ola--just as Sonny's shooting off his mouth at the Sollozzo meeting inadvertently encouraged Vito's shooting.

BB, if you're right that Michael never believed that Fredo had anything to do with the shooting, then how do you explain the fact that Michael had Fredo killed?

As to whether he HAD to kill him, that's a little more debatable. I don't entirely agree that Fredo was a threat as long as he was alive. How much did he really know about Michael's security operations? Obviously, enough to get Roth's people onto the compound. But did he know anything that couldn't be changed after he was send into exile?

I've always felt that FFC wanted us to think that the killing of Fredo was not absolutely necessary. Rather I think FFC used it to show how inhuman Michael has become.

SB, I think that if Michael was indeed sizing up Fredo over a few banana daquiris in Cuba, than he missed out on a telling remark. When Fredo wonders why they didn't do that "before" I always thought that was a clue that Fredo had done something that would irrevocably hurt his relationship with Michael. Michael doesn't seem to pick up on that nuance, though.

i think fredo could have bin a preety good asset to the organisation he wasn't as weak as every one else thought

I am absolutely convinced that Michael was in the dark about Fredo's complicity until they attended the Havana show. And I agree that fratricide was an extreme; exile was appropriate, but not murder. Also, consider the insidious way that Michael lured Frdo into a sense of forgiveness. That was really, really cold.

Michael must have had some kind of feeling that Fredo could be the traitor.

He's "testing" Fredo when he gets to Cuba ("Anyone I know in Cuba?").

If Michael didn't even consider Fredo, then he wouldn't have jump to the traitor conclusion at the sex show. As soon as Fredo screws up, Michael nods to his body guard, giving him the sign to get rid of Johnny O and Roth. Michael knows at this point who the traitor is.

Turnbull I must respectfully dissent.

I believe Michael suspected Fredo's complicity in the hit right from the beginning, but perhaps he didn't want to believe it. He tells Tom he has a working theory but he doesnt let on what it is. He says he must leave "If I think what's happened happened." I think his comment to Tom about Fredo being weak and stupid should be taken in context with his comment that there was a traitor "very close" who "botched" it and who would be "very scared." This all fits Fredo. Tom, probing asks if it could be Neri or Rocco, and Michael merely diverts him with this little speech about everyone being a businessman, and by that thinking anything is possible (ironically it turns out Fredo saw it as "business not personal" because there was something in it for him on his own).

Certainly the question in Havana about knowing Johnny Ola was a trap for Fredo, who by know, Michael probably suspected all the more, if for no other reason,that things in Tahoe were running smoothly.

The scene when they go for a drink in the afternoon is a classic case of "keeping your enemies closer." By now Fredo is racked with guilt, and he has been entrusted to bring the $2 million to the island, which he considers to be an important job. I think he gives it all away to Michael with the very bitter and remorsefule line which said in effect "why didnt we go out like this before?" In other words, "I wouldn't have betrayed you if you had only been closer to me." By this point Michael is certain that Fredo is clueless about his suspicions, and when he shares the information about the impending assassination, he has Fredo drawn back into the fold (Fredo was too weak to stick to his path of betrayal, and Michael was physically too close to allow Fredo to go and talk to Roth's people. In fact the first contact Fredo has with Ola is when they "meet" in the nightclub

Finally, in the famous "Kiss of death scene" Michael says "I know it was you (present tense) you broke my heart (past tense0." So IMHO Fredo's comment at the Superman show was the proof Michael needed that it was Fredo all along.

dt, you may be right. I can't say with certainty that Michael didn't think Fredo had an active role in the Tahoe shooting. That's why I used qualifiers in my post--I think, I believe, etc. I believe Michael didn't entirely rule out Fredo as having some role (the searching looks in the hotel room and when introducing Johnny Ola). For a while, I thought those searching looks alone proved that Michael did suspect Fredo of an active role.

But two other facts pushed me in the direction that Michael didn't think Fredo was an active participant. One was his telling Fredo that "Hyman Roth will never see the New Year." Yes, the two were emotionally and physically close at that point, but it'd still be a life-and-death matter for Michael if he thought Fredo had been actively involved with Roth and Ola, and could warn them--he couldn't keep track of Fredo for every minute. (I think it's possible that, when Fredo said he was "gonna get me a real drink" at the Presidential party, he may have phoned a warning to the Cuban authorities because the very next thing we see is that detail of efficient-looking military men double-timing to Roth's hospital room.)
The other is the physical and emotional near-collapse Michael experiences when Fredo makes his fatal gaffe at the Superman show. You might argue that Michael was feeling, "Oh, no--I was right about Fredo." And you might be right. But it seemed like genuine shock to me.

A traitor "very close" does fit Fredo, as it turns out. But I can't reconcile Michael's describing Fredo as having a "good heart" but being "weak and stupid" with a suspicion that he killed the two gunmen (oh, no--not that one again. ). He literally said that the gunmen botched it, not the "traitor." And, yes, Fredo did say that "there was something in it for me," which sounded like "business." But his near-hysterical outburst of resentment immediately afterward was intensely personal.

Well put TB.

I would add to this the fact that Michael would have known that if Roth was using Fredo, it was not on an operational basis because Fredo was too incompetent. Further, after the Tahoe shooting when Ola made his famous "wrong number" call to Fredo in the middle of the night Fredo made it clear that he didnt want anything more to do with them, and they had got him in deep enough already. Fredo being Fredo probably saw the wagons circling around him. He could no longer help Roth, but he had to be afraid Michael would figure out that he had been involved with them. AGian, I think Michael suspected Fredo all along, but for many reasons he just did not want to believe it was Fredo. Its interesting that Michael knew Pentangeli was not involved and used Pentangeli as sort of a "straw man" when dealing with Roth. Clearly he wanted to make Roth feel comfortable enough that Michael was barking up the wrong tree on who ordered the hit.

I think Michael set Fredo up with the "did you ever meet Ola?" question, and when it became clear Fredo was lying we see the emotional reaction during the Superman show. Michael now has proof and knows he will have to kill his own brother.

I still think the disclosure about Roth wanting to assassinate Michael was done to draw Fredo into his confidence. On the chance that Fredo would have had the opportunity to spill this information, what would Michael care. The message to Roth would be that Michael had made plans to avoid the planned hit. Your comment about the troops coming to guard Roth are interesting, but I think it is just as likely that Batista, who knew by then his time was short, got work that Roth was in the hospital, and he simplky sent his people there to protect him.... and likely to get him out of Cuba.

Fredo says, "anyone I know in Havana"? - Michael clearly see's his reaction = liar

Fredo says "Mikey I was mad at you"... then stops talking... I think Mike sense's something... then lets it go...

Fredo upon meeting Johnny Ola in front Michael - Fredo's awkward reaction/greet...

Michael has a inkling at these points...