In Havana, Michael says, "Can I trust you with something, Fredo?" He then confides that "Hyman Roth will never see the New Year." But he didn't tell Fredo about the plane he'd arranged to take them out of Cuba. And, as we've noted here many times, Michael gave Fredo searching looks when Fredo asked if anyone he knew was in Havana, and when he "introduced" him to Johnny Ola.

After the Tahoe shooting, when Michael told Tom that he was the only person he could completely trust, he said: "Fredo? He's got a good heart, but he's weak, and stupid, and this is life and death." I think he meant that Fredo wasn't up to running the family in his absence. And while Michael didn't think Fredo had an active part in the shooting, he couldn't dismiss the possibily that Fredo had some inadvertent role through his own stupidity and weakness.

So, if he couldn't trust Fredo completely (and if we take his not telling Fredo about the plane, and the searching looks, as evidence of non-total trust), why did he tell him about his plan to whack Roth?

Maybe he was testing Fredo to see if he'd tell Roth about his plans. It was another test to see if he'd pass.

I'm speculating here; Mike had his doubts about Fredo at this point through the process of elimination, but he was not sure. First question is to ask him if he knew Roth or J.oOla; when that brought more doubt via Fredo's unconvincing denial, he gives him one more chance by confiding in him with his plan... that would have been the perfect opportunity for Fredo to confess, claim he was an unwitting accomplice, and offer to act as a double agent for his brother's benefit, to make sure things went according to plan (not that Mike needed that!!).
I think, that Mike wanted him to confess and repent... that it was a mistake.. Fredo would have redeemed himself (and probably saved his life) if he did. but what happened was the beginning of Fredo's end:
1- Mike asks him if he knew anyone - deny
2- Mike confides in him - indifference
3- Mike introduces him to Ola - charade
4- Fredo's slip in that night club that Ols brought him there before!!! - CONFIRMATION!

I think Mike would have accepted that Fredo with his simple mind was "used" by Ola; he was prepared to deal with that, but the sequence of events above convinced him that Fredo was not unwitting (as he had hoped - I presume), but a part of the conspiracy.

and knowing what mike is like; he kept the conversation on a need to know bases, towards whatever served his purpose... there was no need to tell Fredo about the escape plan before he can completely trust him.

Hmmmm.... great question.

This is pure speculation, but I believe it may have been a part of the cat and mouse game Michael and Roth were playing
from the time the Rosato's had their "meeting" with Pentangeli.
Michael suspected Fredo was the traitor, but was not 100% sure.
If he was, Michael would know that Fredo would report to Ola or Roth right away....or would he? Remember the "wrong number"
sequence when Fredo told Ola he didn't want to deal with him any more. My guess here is that Michael figured if Fredo did not pass this information along, there was nothing lost, but that if he did, it would further disturb Roth who could never outright tell Michael that he knew about a plot against him because Fredo ratted on him. I have long maintained a minority view on these boards that Roth and Michael both knew they were trying to kill each other, and that Roth's "heart attack" was faked to get him out of the hotel and into a hospital where he got as it turned out, last minute protection from Batista.

I always felt that Michael had his suspicions about Fredo at that point, but he didn't want to believe them. I think he was almost in denial, and trying to find ways for Fredo to confirm his innocence rather than his guilt. When Fredo slips at the Superman show, you can see the pain on Michael's face. It's almost as if he has received a physical blow.

That's a man who has had his worst fears confirmed.

Well said SB. I couldn't agree more.

And as Desertwolf said, Mike had his doubts about Fredo, but he was not 100% sure.

I believe that in his heart he was hoping that his doubts and suspicions about his own brother would be wrong, but in his head he knew that they would be right. That's why when it all comes out at the Superman show, Michael is so distraught. Sick to his stomach.

TD, good insight... here are my afterthoughts:

I would add that if Mike was tapping the phones from the days when his father was alive in NYC, isn't it safe to assume that he tapped his Lake Taho estate too? Fredo lived there, and got the phone call.. when he answered he was asleep and not so alert, so he engaged in a conversation with Ola, but when he became fully awake he must have guessed that Mike could be tapping the phones and played the "Wrong number" bit... but it was too late had someone been listening in on that conversation.

On the other hand, Mike's reaction to Fredo's slip in the Havana nightclub while watching the SUPERMAN suggests he (Mike) was not sure... [read below copied from the trascript]:

FREDO

Fifty bucks, Pat. Old Man ROTH would never come here, but Old Man JOHNNY knows these places like the back of his hand. Now watch him -- he's gonna break a cracked with it.

GEARY

Break a cracker -- I want to see him break a brick.

[MICHAEL turns and signals to his BODYGUARD then turns back. He looks at the floor and then covers his face with his hand. He is in great pain realizing that FREDO is the Family traitor]

Which brings us back my earlier post... Mike perhaps was not tapping the phones, or if he was, his attempt (prior to the nightclub incident) was to give Fredo a chance to come clean, and save himself!

I'm not sure.... what do you guys think?

Bad writing. Oh, wait. That's only the right answer when it involves GFIII.

There's a schizophrenia in Michael's dealings with Fredo in this period. On the one hand, he tells Tom that he does not fully trust Fredo, because of his weakness and stupidity. And he clearly is testing Fredo when he mentions Ola and Roth once Fredo arrives in Cuba.

But Michael never would have told Fredo his plans if he felt that there was any chance of Fredo tipping off Roth. And Michael's reaction when he realizes that Fredo is pure shock, not the reaction of someone who has had his suspicions confirmed. (Look how differently he reacted when Sollozzo is exposed.)

I believe that Michael (at least until New Year's Eve) trusted Fredo's good intentions, but knew that his weakness and stupity were a potential ch*nk in the Corleone armor. He may have felt that there was little risk in telling Fredo something at that point because Fredo would be under Michael's watchful eye in Havana, leaving little room for him to be tricked into spilling the beans. The thought of Fredo consciously passing the info along to Roth did not cross Michael's mind.

Irony is Al Pacino actualy was sick to his stomach in those scenes. He'd been battling the flu.

Point taken. However, if that was the case, then why was Michael able to turn to his bodyguard and through the actions of a nod / look, without ever uttering a word, communicate that Roth and Ola had to be taken out? In my opinion Michael's not saying a word and just giving a look indicates to me that he planned for this moment. He thought out what had to be done once his worse fears were confirmed.

Michael has a heart?

A heart, a brain....da noirve.

Good point, DC. Obviously, Michael and the bodyguard had planned for something. Michael was probably waiting until the last possible minute to find out who the traitor was, hoping for some hint to be dropped during the evening. He may have been expecting it from Fredo, but it's equally likely that he thought Ola or even Geary would provide the information he needed.

But I still don't see any scenario that involved Michael truly suspecting Fredo and still telling him about his move against Roth. At least no scenario that makes sense.

Yes, deep down in his tortured soul there is something. But, it ended once Mary died on the Opera House steps.

Nor I.

The idea that Michael may have been testing Fredo to see if he'd confess and repent is fascinating. Fredo nearly did: "Mikey, I was mad at you...why didn't we spend time like this before." It also fits with Michael's leading questions and probing looks--and with the whole idea of Michael having Fredo bring the $2 million to Havana, when Tom could have found someone trustworthy to do it.

But, if Michael had any suspicion that Fredo was directly involved with Roth and Ola, he'd never have told him his plans. If it were a test, the only way Michael would know that Fredo betrayed his plan to Roth would be in the instant before Roth's assassins ambushed and whacked him. Roth wasn't going to phone him and say, "Uh, Mike, Fredo tells me your plan is that I'm never going to see the New Year."

As the most powerful gringo in Havana, Roth could have had Michael whacked the moment he stepped off the plane in Havana. But Roth was greedy for the $2 million--and Michael knew it. That's why he strung Roth along to buy time so he could find out who the traitor was. Roth also could have whacked him the moment Fredo brought the $2 mil and grabbed it, but that would have left trails leading to Roth.

So Roth continued to hope Michael would give him the $2 mil, per his birthday party charade. Then he'd establish his alibi by arranging for Michael to be assassinated in a military car taking him home from the Presidential Palace.

No doubt his pals in SIM, Batista's Gestapo, would arrange an attack on the car with grenades and other military weapons, killing everyone in the car, and making it look like the guerrilas were responsible. Then Roth would have plausible deniability for any suspicious Corleone allies or US lawmen: "What, me kill Michael? Why, I loved the kid like a son. I was even gonna give him my Cuban empire--just ask any of those guys at my birthday party." And Batista would have a nice propaganda point: "Those mierda guerrilas committed another reckless act of terrorism, and tragically killed a mos' respected American businessman who was continuing to work with Cuba for the greatest period of prosperity in her entire history."

But if Fredo or anyone else had tipped Roth that Michael knew his plan and was going to act first, Roth would have moved instantly to whack Michael, loose ends or no. Kill or be killed.

I am a little unclear on something. If Roth was so driven by greed that he would not kill Michael over two million dollars, why did he try to kill him in Tahoe? Further, once that plot failed, why not take him out the minute he landed in Cuba. After all they had a friendly government, no oversight by Kefauver, The Justice Dept. and the God Damned FBI. Surely he could have had Batista's goons bump him off and blame it on Castro, in which case he'd get a bigger piece of the pie. In fact as soon as he learned Fredo arrived with the money, he could wack Michael, convince Fredo to fork over the money and then wack Fredo too.

Good question. IMO, Roth's goal all along was to find an opportune time and place to kill Michael. Tahoe looked ideal because of Pentangeli's beef. After that plot failed, Roth went to Plan B: lure Michael to Cuba, and get him to pay $2 million for his own demise. I think the $2 million was a brilliant innovation on his part, but his overall goal was to kill Michael, $2 million or no.


He could have. But having an important gringo whacked in cold blood would have embarrassed his pal Batista and led to fingers pointing at Roth. He needed that military car ruse to create an alibi: Batista's people would attack the car with grenades and other military weapons, killing all inside (including Michael). Then Michael would look like he'd been an innocent victim of the rebels.

Fredo's ineptitude when their father was shot probably didnt impress michael either.im not even going to suggest that fredo was in on that hit either!its just too much to imagine.but i have wondered why they didnt whack fredo too.

im surprised michael even trusted fredo with the 2 million dolars in a simple briefcase

For not having been a smart bodyguard? Then Sonny should have committed suicide because of his mistake at the meeting with Sollozzo.

Waste of bullets.