It is pretty much conventional wisdom that Barzini's long term goal was to move the Corleones out as the leading family in New York and take on that mantle himself. He was the one behind Sollozzo, not Tattaglia, and ultimately it was Barzini's people who were establishing the drug trade in New York. This leads to the likelihood that had Vito gone along with the original idea to get into the drug business, that Barzini would allow Sollozzo to set things up, and then kill him to gather more power. This would not have caused a war because no one was beholden to Sollozzo, and the drug trade would have continued without the need for paying Sollozzo a dime.

When Vito refused to get into the business, Barzini saw his chance to have Vito assassinated, shatter the Corleones, and
let Sollozzo take the blame. Either way Barzini would win.
And either way Sollozzo was going to wind up dead. In esence, therfore Michael did Barzini a favor by killing Sollozzo and maneuvering the Corleones and the Tattaglias to fight among themselves.

What I am wondering here is how did it escape Vito, Santino and Tom that it was Barzini pulling the strings, and not that pimp Tattataglia for such a long time.

Yeah, Vito's statement, "Until today I didn't know it was Barzini all along" astonished me. How could he not know it was Barzini all along? "Tattaglia is a pimp, alone he could never have outfought Santino." Well, he was a pimp when Sollozzo first proposed his meeting with Vito and said Tat was backing him. More important: Barzini was the obvious number-two guy in the Five Families, younger and more modern than the other Dons--and the one who had the most power and influence to gain from drug profits. Vito should have sussed that out the moment Tom brought the Sol proposal to him.

I've always believed that Sol knew Barzini would have the most to gain from the drugs trade, and came to him first. But Barzini must have said, "You need Corleone's judges. If you tell him I'm backing you, he'll know that I'll get stronger. So he'll say no to you. Get Tattaglia to be your front--he's a pimp, and Vito doesn't fear him. I'll be your silent partner."

You also raise a less obvious point: what would Sol's future have been if Vito'd gone along with the proposal? He was no dummy--he'd have to know that his partners were more powerful than he, and, once the business was up and running, they'd simply eliminate him and pile up the profits. My guess is that he'd have used the drugs business to establish his own family, then whack Tattaglia and take over his borgata. That would make him one of the five Dons, and would fire a shot across the other Dons' bows.

I think we're operating with a bit of 20/20 hindsight here.

Why would it have been obvious from the start that it was really Barzini behind Sollozzo? Just because Tattaglia, Cuneo, and Stracchi were not as powerful as Barzini does not mean that they did not have much to gain from entering the drug trade. In fact, a risky move like that might be more appealing to a less powerful Don who had less to lose.

Furthermore, look at it from Vito's perspective. First of all, he felt (correctly) that drugs would ruin the Mafia. He felt it was foolish to get involved with. He may have figured that Barzini - a smarter man - would have felt the same way. Tattaglia - a "pimp" -may be stupid enough to make the mistake of getting into the drug trade. Secondly, he felt, like Don Zaluchi, that drugs were disreputable. A pimp wouldn't have the moral standards to avoid the drug trade. but perhaps Barzini would.

It is clear from Vito's statement that he realized someone was backing Tattaglia once Sonny was assassinated - a move too bold for Tattaglia. It wasn't immediately obvious who, so Vito called the meeting to smoke out his true enemy. It worked, and the Corleones won the war.

If Barzini gave Sol the go ahead to kill Vito, he had to know that Santino would not have the poliical and judicial protection necessary to run a drug operation, so perhaps Plan B could have been that Sol would kill Vito, and pick up the pieces of the Corleone family and leave Tat with his hookers.

Sound logic, LW. But I infer a different conclusion from Vito's statement: "Tattaglia is a pimp. Alone he could never have fought Santino." Tattaglia was a pimp, and couldn't have outfought Santino, before, at, and after, the time of Vito's shooting. So, as soon as Vito regained lucidity after he was shot, he should have figured out that Tat didn't have either the balls or the muscle to mount a war on him. He should have figured that others were instigating and backing the war. And he should have figured that Barzini would have the most to gain from it.

Maybe we should interpret Vito's statement a little more liberally. Maybe he meant that he was sure until today. As TB posted, he probably had his suspicions about Tattaglia's inability to pull off such a coup.

Vito's words were, "I did not KNOW until this day it was Barzini all along," so I guess that could mean he suspected it. It could be telling that Vito contacted Barzini to arrange the meeting with Tattaglia. That would be a typical "keep your enemies closer" move.

And BTW, what was it that Stracci and Cuneo did wrong?

Nothing obvious that we saw in the movie--except to be NYC Dons sharing the same space with Michael Corleone. The novel says that they sided with Barz and Tatt.

Right. He doesn't want to rub everyone out....just his enemies.

...and who are his enemies? Everyone.

Well as they said of Nixon, just because you're paranoid doesnt mean you don't have enemies.

All 5 families were against the Corleones in the war.

I hate that god damned Barzini