If Fredo never slips about Ola and Old Man Roth on New Years Eve... then what happens?

Michael goes home and is none the wiser about finding the traitor in his family... atleast not then anyways

I am afraind Fredo's days are still numbered. Micheal pondered upon Fredo's betray a long time ago. And it was clear enough that Fredo was the rat well before that.

I agree. Watch Michael's eyes after he "introduces" Fredo and Ola. Fiirst he studies Ola's face, looking for a tell, then you see his eyes move a little, onto Fredo. When he says "Happy New Year" as he hoists his drink, he has a look of disappointment on his face.

While I will agree that Michael had suspicions about Fredo... and maybe even knew... but didnt want to believe it... his mind was clouded with doubt when it came to Fredo.... so the words "clear enough" doesnt work for me... THIS is "clear" when you see his reaction when Fredo blabs...

Fredo's slip-up was merely the smoking gun. Michael's Sicilian cunning deduced that it was Fredo. Michael tested Fredo twice in Havana before Fredo's slip of the tongue: once when Fredo first arrived and Michael divulged who the money was for and a second time when they were having drinks.

One could even argue that Michael's doubts began forming in Las Vegas, years prior, when Michael warned Fredo to "never take sides with anyone against the Family again - ever."

Michael's coldness was in full effect in the 2nd film, so I do not buy the argument that he "didn't want to believe it." Michael proved time and again that he would kill all of his enemies.

Good question. I don't think it's been asked before. Congrats!

Michael was in Havana, dangling the $2 million before Roth, to buy time to find out who the traitor was in his family. But he had a definite deadline in Havana. He knew that Roth planned to have him whacked after the party in the Presidential Palace. So, he had to act first, even if he hadn't yet found out who the traitor was. That's why he arranged for that private plane to take him out--even before he knew that Batista was going to abdicate.
So, if Fredo hadn't made his fatal gaffe at the Superman show, my guess is that Michael would have ordered the bodyguard to kill Roth. Then he would have corralled Fredo and both of them would have flown out on that private plane. Michael would have felt very insecure not knowing for sure who the traitor was. But, since he was watching Fredo closely in Havana (as many of us have mentioned), he would have watched him even more closely when they got back to Nevada.
I'm guessing that sooner, rather than later, he would have found something in Fredo's behavior to convince him that Fredo had a part in the conspiracy. Then he would have confronted Fredo. I think he would have hesitated to whack Fredo--unless Fredo made an outburst like the one he made in the boathouse. If that happened, I believe Michael would have convinced himself that he had no choice but to whack Fredo.

With all that said and true in most circumstances concerning Michael. Fredo was his brother, so it was different even if only up until he finally whacks him(his father's son)... so he was not Crystal Clear on that situation. The Gaffe crystalized his vision.






Yeah. Thanks. What do I win? LOL




Yeah... thats sound just about right. Agreed.


I have one other question though... why so much "certainty" about the "emotional" scene by Fredo sealing his fate? He was weak and simpleminded and very upset... the emotional outburst was more hurt about his father. I dont know that he held THAT much against Michael(except the "you take care of me part")...

The outburst underscored just how much Fredo bitterly resented Michael. When Fredo said, "I was passed over...that ain't the way I wanted it," Michael concluded (justifiably IMO) that Fredo would always resent him, always be jealous, always think he (Fredo) deserved to be Don--and would try again.

I see... well that is really an unknown... but I dont blame Michael for thinkiing that way(or the posters on this board for that matter)...

On the flip side... Fredo could have accepted his destiny.. which was non-donship.... work under Michael. Not.