If Sollozo's hit (on Vito)* fails where does the plot go from there?

-Do the Corleones fight it out against the other 5 families and essentially the rest of the criminal world who are destined to join the drug trade?

-Is the Sollozo hit(on vito)* the best thing that could have happened since Mike is inevitably forced to take over instead of 'stupid' Sonny?

-Does Vito try and whack the Turk?

I think an un-injured Don sticks to his guns and refuses the offer, causing an all out war that would have inevitably crushed the Corleones (b/c they were really fighting an unstoppable force in the drug trade).

So actually, the Sollozo hit(on vito)* IRONICALLY saves the Corleone family. It paves the way for Micheal to come along and kill EVERYONE who needed it, and then part the proverbial red sea out to Tahoe. Family saved.


*EDIT

Nothing ironic about it at all.

"We can't wait. I don't care what Sollozzo says about a deal, he's gonna kill Pop, that's it. That's the key for him. Gotta get Sollozzo."


Don Cardi

If the Sollozo hit had failed, things would have pretty much gone as they did. Remember the hit succeeded and Michael had to go to Sicily to hide out. Had it failed, he probably would have still gone to Sicily (assuming he lived). Either way the war continued on under Sonny's leadership. Sonny would have still been set up and killed, and at that point Vito would have made the deal to allow drugs to be sold in exchange for safe passage home for Michael, who would then have plotted the same revenge, only this time with Sollozzo in the mix. Keep in mind here that Sollozzo wasn't really that big a player. He really was working for Tattaglia and Barzini, and could not make a move without their permission.

Good question, Ice--and one that hasn't been asked before. Take a bow!
I'm pretty much with dt here because the basic physics of the situation left no room for maneuver:
--Sollozzo needed Vito dead in order to survive and (perhaps) make a deal on drugs.
--Sonny was adamant that there'd be no deal on drugs as long as the Don lived, and until he could retake the reins of the family.
--Michael wasn't empowered to make a deal with Sollozzo at that meeting. The only purpose was for him to kill Sollozzo and McCluskey.

So, if Michael had lost nerve and didn't shoot, the meeting would have ended the way Sollozzo intended: he was simply buying time to get another shot at Vito.
If Michael did shoot and miss Sollozzo, or just wounded him, and didn't hit McCluskey, he'd be a most wanted man. If McCluskey was quick on the draw, he might have shot Michael. If Michael were quicker, he'd have gone to Sicily. But it might have been impossible for him to come back because McCluskey, to cover his own ass, would have claimed that he was meeting with "informants" (the novel says so), and that one of the "informants" shot the other. McCluskey would have made every effort to identify Michael as the shooter, the better to neutralize the Corleones and any attempt they might make to implicate him in the Sollozzo affair. With the family distracted by defending against McCluskey and the police, the other families would have been tempted to take advantage of the chaos by warring against the Corleones while they were vulnerable.
If Sollozzo was breathing, he and Tattaglia would have continued to try to kill Vito. They would probably succeed eventually. With Vito dead, I'm guessing Sonny's hothead nature would close his mind to any deal with Sollozzo. He'd fight to the last dead Corleone. I believe there'd be a good chance that the family would fall apart, as did the Bonannos after Joe's war with the Commission. Sonny'd never survive--he'd be killed either by someone from the other families, or from within.

As you pointed out, Ice, drugs was a bigger force than Vito Corleone. If, by some chance, Vito survived, I believe he'd make a deal on drugs with the other families, just as he did to get Michael home from Sicily. The condition might have been that Sollozzo had to go, and that some arrangement had to be made to bring Michael home. Maybe they'd arrange a big payoff to get McCluskey to change his mind.

WELL I WAS REALLY ASKING WHAT HAPPENS IF SOLLOZO FAILS TO 'HIT/INJURE' VITO? WHERE DOES THE STORY GO W/ VITO STILL IN CHARGE INSTEAD OF SONNY?

NICE SPECULATION ALL THE SAME, IF MIKE MISSES SOLLOZO WE ARE IN REAL TROUBLE

(I re-worded my original post)

I see what you're trying to say. Hmmmm...I think that it was inevitable for Vito to be shot. If the Turk had failed at this attempt, then he would've somehow tried again. Barzini needed Vito's political connections too badly. So, IF the first shooting had failed (for example, if the gunmen show up after Vito was safely in the car, or Vito had decided to leave the office early), then there simply would've been another attempt. Perhaps that one would've killed Vito, and then Sonny might've taken the deal, etc. I think that an attempt on Vito's life was inevitable.

Assuming the shooters 'botch' the attempt, or perhaps Fredo helps takes some of the shots, Vito is in shape to negotiate. I just kind of think the hit on Vito was a very close call named Fredo. Vito could have escaped w/ less damage.(*edit)

After a failed hit attempt by Sollozo would Vito's plan of action be very different from Sonny's??

2 options that he has
-Make some kind of deal?
-War?

What else?

I can't believe how everyone misunderstood your post. I actually went back & re-read it, thinking I must've misread something.

Remember, Vito had already sent Luca to 'get under Solozzo's fingernails' so he was clearly concerned about the guy. If he had escaped the attempted hit unscathed (which was impossible) then he would've known Solozzo needed him DEAD, would try again and eventually succeed...and would have taken appropriate action to make sure Solozzo and whomever was backing him paid the price. I doubt he would've made the drug deal simply to keep the peace. That would indicate fear and weakness; two traits Vito Corleone did not posess until after being shot and losing his son.

Remember his departing statement to Solozzo after the initial meeting:

"...My no is final, and I wish to congratulate you on your new business, and I know you'll do very well; and good luck to you
- as best as your interests don't conflict with my interests."

I'd guess that Vito might've considered an attempt on his life a conflict of interests and delegated accordingy.

Apple

I'm the confusing one Apple. I have already changed this post 5 times.

Guess I'm just killing a few 'birds' with one thread though.

If the hit had failed, if Vito would have kept running the family, then he would have been in a powerful position to demand huge concessions from the rest of the families to get his cooperation on drugs. The desperation of the hit attempt tipped the other families' hand. Vito would have then figured out a way to provide cooperation without alientating his political and legal allies. Remember, the only reason that he didn't do so after he recovered was because he had to secure Michael's return.

Interesting point, Olivant- was Vito really that much against the purveyance of narcotics? Was he able to see past Tom's warning that without narcotics they risked everything they had, "not now but ten years from now"? was he really able to see that the narcotics racket truly would "destroy us in the years to come"? (As it indeed eventually did- LCN is a shell of it's former self)...
Big Picture speculation here- Sonny would have lived, Vito would have lived longer, securing more time and training in the more subtle qualities of being a Don for Santino- who would have gone on to become the Don upon Vito's retirement. Fredo would have remained the low-level gopher, but for his older brother, as opposed to his kid brother- Fredo would perhaps not made the same mistakes that he later did.
But Vito's greatest triumph would have been that he finally would have had "enough time"- Michael would have stayed out of the Family buisness, the Family would have moved towards more legitimate enterprises with Michael at the lead of that side of things- perhaps not Michael, but Anthony, or even Mike and Kay's aborted son, may have gone on to become "Senator Corleone, Governor Corleone, something..."

Sammy The Fish

Sammy:

The novel comments that the hit on Sollozzo deprived Michael of years of valuable training under his father. So, would Michael have actually stayed out of the business if Vito had escaped harm? Would he have eventually been convinced by Vito to enter the business. I just don't see such an intelligent and influential father as Vito simpply letting Michael go his own way. True, had Sonny lived he might have taken over as Don. But, I think Vito had Michael in mind long term to guide the family.

Oh you meant what is Sollozzo's hit on Don Vito Corleone failed?

It may interest you that the attempt DID fail. Sollozzo wanted Vito Corleone dead. Vito Corleone lived. As Sollozzo put it, "That's bad luck for me."

Dosen't Barzini have his own political connections?

Despite Sollozzo intentions, to the Corleones the hit was a success of sorts because it put Vito out of action for quite a while, led to Sonny's death, and to Michael's exile. You could even make the argument that the falling dominoes it set in motion led to fratricide.

Short-term, and especially for Solozzo...the hit failed.

Because not only did Vito not die, bit it set in motion a string of events leading to Solozzo's death, a war, Sonny's death which although prompted Vito to end the war and make the drug deal... brought Michael home from Sicily to run the family and set in motion (with his father) a plan that would eventually eliminate the Heads of all FIVE Families.

The hit failed.

Apple

Well, how far into the future do we carry the effects of the hit on Vito whether you consider it a success of failure? How about this: the hit forced Michael to take control of the family resulting in the eventual murder of his daughter, destruction of his will to live, his dying alone, and the passing of family control to a bastard child.

As far as need be.

In fact, whether you take it long- or short-term, in the business sense the hit was a failure for ALL involved EXCEPT the Corleone Family. For even though Don Vito ultimately made the drug deal to keep the peace...it was eventually Don Michael who 'settled all Family Business'...and in quite an effective way.

Apple

ps - I personally don't count anything that happened in GFIII because the only reason for ANY of it was the success of GF and GFII.

Yeah but let us assume Fredo grows a pair and actually gets off a few shots, preventing the assassins from seriously injuring Vito. Vito is healthy enough to resume duties, and Sonny does not whack out Bruno Tatt.

So...After the failed attempt Vito is for the most part un-injured and able to go home. He then finds out Luca is dead, where does he go from there????

To War.



Don Cardi

Yes, DC, to war. But given Vito's statesmanship and practical nature, it might not have been a war aimed at the entire Tattaglia family:
Certainly Vito would need Sollozzo dead. In the grand scheme of things, he was (as Hyman Roth later said of Frankie) "small potatoes." I'm guessing (and this is a guess) that Vito'd approach Tattaglia in somewhat the same way Michael talked about Fredo to Tom after the Havana revelation: Vito'd say that he knew Sollozzo had misled Tattaglia, that Tattaglia hadn't intended to jeopardize the peace that the Five Families had enjoyed for more than a decade, etc. He'd then demand concessions and/or tribute from Tattaglia as compensation: No more drug deals, some rackets conceded to the Corleones, etc.

But I don't see Vito trying to wipe out the Tattaglias or take over the Tattaglia family. He'd realize that even though he could easily outfight Tattaglia, a war would be costly on both sides. And since the Tattaglias' main business was prostitution, he wouldn't want to become the city's biggest pimp. I think Vito would see the real value of letting Tattaglia pay compensation and live would be to send messages to the other Dons: I'm still Number One here; I'm protecting all of us from a destructive war--and, no more drugs!

Yes, DC, to war. But given Vito's statesmanship and practical nature, it might not have been a war aimed at the entire Tattaglia family:
Certainly Vito would need Sollozzo dead. In the grand scheme of things, he was (as Hyman Roth later said of Frankie) "small potatoes." I'm guessing (and this is a guess) that Vito'd approach Tattaglia in somewhat the same way Michael talked about Fredo to Tom after the Havana revelation: Vito'd say that he knew Sollozzo had misled Tattaglia, that Tattaglia hadn't intended to jeopardize the peace that the Five Families had enjoyed for more than a decade, etc. He'd then demand concessions and/or tribute from Tattaglia as compensation: No more drug deals, some rackets conceded to the Corleones, etc.

But I don't see Vito trying to wipe out the Tattaglias or take over the Tattaglia family. He'd realize that even though he could easily outfight Tattaglia, a war would be costly on both sides. And since the Tattaglias' main business was prostitution, he wouldn't want to become the city's biggest pimp. I think Vito would see the real value of letting Tattaglia pay compensation and live would be to send messages to the other Dons: I'm still Number One here; I'm protecting all of us from a destructive war--and, no more drugs!

I agree, and as I said in my original post Vito would 'stick to his guns' and resist the drug trade, only to find out later its impossible to win.

However if the Sollozo hit failed to injure him I don't think Vito would have had the element of surprise like he does in the movie. If he is not injured then he would have 'show his hand' immediately. Instead, he is in the hospital while Sonny starts a war, then Mike comes out of no where to whack the Turk, and then Vito misleads the five families into thinking he(they) will keep the peace, allowing Mike to whack all five and lead the way out west. Family saved.

So, ironically, it may have been the temporary disabling of Vito that won the war for the Corleones b/c it sets in motion Mike and allows Vito to lie in the shadows and strike his unsuspecting enemy.

And he wouldn't need it.

An attempt is made on the life of Don Vito Corleone and everybody knows why. If he is lucky enough to escape without injury, all involved are reduced to the position of groveling, saying...ok well, let's make the deal anyway or we'll try to kill you again...if you don't kill us first...which is effectively what Solozzo did but ended up dead because he underestimated Vito's youngest son.

Yes, DC is right. Vito would've gone to war. Perhaps not in the same way or via the same methods as his children took once he was unable to conduct business...but he most certainly would've gone to war.

Apple

Yes but as we all now know the drug business is an unstoppable force that would have found its way into the Five Families eventually. Another 'Turk' would have come along and the Five Families would have no choice but to go along.

Mother Fate(an injured Vito) allowed the Corleones to get out of it(drug dealings) and New York when they did. If Vito never gets injured and stays in the Don spot the whole time, he negotiates temporarily yes, but they would all eventually have to succumb to the drug deals. As it is Sollozo strikes and injures Vito enabling Mike to take over and allowing Vito to mislead the Families, and then the Corleones 'get the hell out of Dodge' leaving the other's to deal with the drug nonsense.

He could have fought all the wars he wanted but nothing was going to stop the drug business from entering the Five Families of New York. If Vito himself chooses to whack the Families we have to think it would not be successful since Mike's attempt worked b/c he had the element of surprise, Vito would certainly not have the element of surprise.

Sooo....whacking all five families and entering the gambling industry in Nevada(Mike's brainchild?) is the only way for them to get out of New York and get out of the drug deals. MIke was thought to be harmless by the other families which is the only reason the hit worked. Again, I don't think Vito without the element of surprise that Mike had could have whacked all five families, nor would he have tried to move Moe Greene out and move the family to Vegas. No, Vito would have to War for a while, then negotiate, then eventually either agree to the deals, or pull out of 'THE BUSINESS' all togethor. Something we know is hardly possible.

Vito did survive, then acceded to the drug deal as a STRATEGY to bring Michael home and continue with his long range plan for revenge. But, had he not been injured and had he not had to concern himself with Michael's return and had Sonny not been killed, Vito would have eventually exercised his huge intelligence to recognize that he really had to participate to at least some extent in the drug trade, that it was the wave of the future.

By the way, according to the novel, it is Vito not Mike that tells Tom to put together a group to give him a report on the possibilities out in Neveda.

I think he made it clear he was not going to be apart of this 'wave of the future.' Guess its left up to conjecture though.

Operative word: eventually .

Yes, he might very well have eventually recognized this.

But, if Tom's persuasive argument pre-Solozzo meeting did not persuade him, then a failed attempt on his very life would not have prompted him to simply think "Oh, gee...I guess they're really serious!", lie down & make the deal.

He would've gone to war.

Apple