The nominal reason that Michael had Fredo bring the $2 million to Havana was so that he could keep stringing Roth along until he could find out who was the traitor in his family. Now I’m thinking that Michael didn’t need the money to keep Roth on a string—so he might have had another motive. I’d like your opinions:

Roth had arranged for his allies in the Cuban government (probably SIM, known as “Batista’s Gestapo”) to take Michael to his hotel after the Presidential New Year’s Eve party in a military car, for his “protection,” and to assassinate him. Roth needed Michael dead because Michael had been horning in on Roth’s gaming empire ever since he had Moe Green whacked. Roth tried to have Michael killed at Tahoe, after Anthony’s party—and the $2 million wasn’t even on the table at that point. Havana—where Michael was outside his Tahoe fortress, and unprotected by Rocco, Neri and their troops—was Roth’s last, best chance to have Michael killed. Getting the $2 million would have been a big bonus, but Roth’s plan had to move ahead when and how it was arranged, with or without the money.

Michael, knowing how—and when—Roth planned to have him killed, didn’t need the money to keep Roth on a string. He knew exactly how much time he had left—and when he had to act. The clock was ticking on both his and Roth’s plans, and the $2 million was important but not essential to both.

So, why did Michael have the $2 million brought to Havana? I’m guessing that he was signaling to Batista’s successors—including Castro—that he was willing to pay to be the new Mr. Big in Cuban gambling. He and every other American who read the newspapers knew that Batista didn’t have much time left. Tourism—anchored by gambling and prostitution—was Cuba’s third-biggest industry after mining and sugar. Castro had not yet declared himself a Communist, and had been saying in interviews from his hideouts that he loved Americans, winning him a big cheering section in the US. It was logical for Michael and other businessmen with interests in Habana to conclude that whoever ruled Cuba after Batista would keep the casinos and brothels open. Michael was obsessed with being the biggest legal gambling czar in the Western Hemisphere. I don’t think he was going to let a change of government interfere with his plans.

Your views?

TB, good speculation. However, when did Michael order the $2 million brought to Cuba? Was it on the spur of the moment only after Michael witnessed the rebels at the roadblock ("They could win"?) because he figured that Batista's days were numbered and he could make a deal with his successors as you suggest? Or was it previously timed to arrive when Fredo brought it? I just don't know.

Of course, if he figured that Batista's days were numbered, why was he still in Cuba on New Year's eve? I ask that because if he intended to make a deal with Batista's successors, why did he leave Cuba? If he leaves, how does he make that deal?

And another question: how did Michael learn about his possible assassination? Who were his contacts in Cuba?

Thanks for your thoughtful response, Oli:


Obviously he didn't bring the money with him. So, I'm guessingthat he had it brought after the meeting with Batista, as part of his signal that he was committed to being Roth's successor despite the war against Batista.

I'm guessing his being at the party was a tactical move--to establish an alibi for the verifiable time that Roth was murdered. Michael couldn't have known that Batista would abdicate just after midnight. I think the plane was his insurance that he wouldn't be arbitrarily arrested or held in custody. I think he would have come back--with the money--when the dust of Roth's murder settled.

Michael simply deduced it. Since he knew Roth was determined to have him killed, the setup--especially the military car for his "protection"--seemed obvious to him.

TB, while your retorts are rather logical, I still don't understand why Michael remained in Cuba. For whom would Michael need an alibi? If he was arrested by Cuban authorities for anything, he was a dead man.

He also needed to keep track of Fredo, as in, "Fredo, where are you going?" "I'm gonna get me a real drink."

Well, if it were me I would have gotten out of there pronto.

So would I. In real life, it would have been very dangerous for Fredo to bring the money to Havana. Then as now, it was illegal for any American to leave the country with more than $10k in cash. Any US Customs inspector could have opened Fredo's bag at the airport, had him arrested on a felony rap, and confiscated the money. It would have been even more dangerous at Cuban customs, given the rampant corruption at that time.

Let's face it, Olli: FFC had Fredo bring the money because he needed to set the stage for that entire, magnificent Havana scene and Michael's realization of Fredo's betrayal. You and I are just helping FFC along by adding a little logic to his directorial license.

I concur TB. I think that real life v. fictional life has its challenges for we Trilogy addicts.

Yes TB, absolutely! If you watch Michael in all of those scenes in Havana with Fredo, Michael is constantly seeing what kind of reaction Fredo has whenever he asks him questions about his knowing Ola, about Roth's failure to kill him at his home in Tahoe, about Roth having him assassinated, etc. He constantly looks for signs, for reactions from Fredo, when making those references to Roth and Ola.

Which brings me to this question. I was watching the HBO Epic last night and thought of something in the scene where Michael gives Fredo the Kiss of Death.....Why in the world would Michael let on to Fredo that he knew it was him while they were still in Havana? Why give Fredo that kind of heads up? Why not keep it in, let Fredo leave the island with him, and then confront him when they arrived back in Nevada?

My only though is that although Michael suspected that it was Fredo, once Fredo confirmed Michael's fear that it was him, Michael was unable to control his emotions at that point.

Any thoughts?

I agree 100%. There are two times in the Epic to watch Michael's eyes very closely. It precursors him absolutely losing control.

The first is during the Superman scene in which Fredo incriminates himself beyond all doubt. Michael's eyes are furious before hiding his face in his hand.

The second is when Kay tells Michael about the abortion. His eyes are flaming red before he snaps and strikes her.

Yes! If you look very closely at Pacino when Kay is telling him it was an abortion, etc. etc. you can see Pacino's bottom lip quivering. A brilliant piece pf acting by him in that scene.

Great analysis as always TB and I agree with your explanation.

I was home sick a few days last week and watched the entire Saga on HBO. So many nuances that I had forgotten about over time. I, too, noticed the quiver and it struck me because I had not picked up on it before. The rage in Pacino's eyes at Kay was poignant.

Michael, like his father, was a master at masking his emotions. I think the Havana scene with Fredo was too crushing for Michael to process. My guess is that while Michael had suspected Fredo, I don't think Michael actually thought that he would find evidence against his brother. When it occurred, it was was too overwhelming for Michael to comprehend.

As you know, goombah, this has been a subject of plenty of discussion here.

Michael didn't initially suspect Fredo of treachery. When he said to Tom, right after the Tahoe shooting, "Fredo? He's got a good heart, but he's weak and stupid, and this is life and death," he meant that Fredo didn't have what it took to run the family in his absence--not that Fredo was a conspirator. And, I don't think Michael necessarily had Fredo bring the money to Havana to test him. Tom couldn't be spared because he was running the family back home. And, by not having Rocco or Neri bring it, Michael was signaling Roth that he hadn't dismissed them as possible conspirators. So, Fredo was the logical choice.

But then there were the suspicious looks Michael gave Fredo whe he asked who else was in Havana...and when he introduced Johhny Ola to Fredo...unmistakably suspicious.

TB, your's is an excellent response to Goombah with which I agree except ...

I just don't see any type of look from Michael. As you point out, it was Fredo who asked the question. If he doesn't ask, then there's no look from Michael either way. Again, whenhe introduces Ola, no look.

Thanks Ol1.
Perhaps it was the camera angle, but I thought I detected a kind of piercing look when Michael said, "Johnny, I don't think you know my brother Fredo." I'm influenced in part by the earlier boathouse scene at Anthony's party when Michael introduces Ola to Tom, and Ola says, "Sure, I remember Tom from the old days." If Johnny remembered Tom from the old days, he surely would have bee acquainted with Fredo, who was just a few years younger than Tom and Sonny, and older than Michael.

Turbull you better articulated my argument.

What I meant and should have said is that I think Michael started to suspect Fredo when they were in Havana. Certainly there was no suspicion at Tahoe after the attack. Fredo was a reduced to a laughingstock by his drunk wife at the First Communion party, so nothing would have indicated that Fredo could've planned the Tahoe shooting on that night. He had to apologize for Deanna's behavior on the dance floor.

Michael started to slowly test Fredo in Havana when Fredo brought the money, when they were out having banana daqaris, and at the NYE reception. But I would add these were more to gauge Fredo's reactions rather than deep suspicions. When Fredo made his aggregious slip, I think Michael was horrified that Fredo could be so easily manipulated.

Goombah, you provide a nice, logical bridge between Michael's "good heart" speech at Tahoe and the suspicious looks in Havana. But then, another piece of illogic comes along to confound us:

If Michael was at all suspicious, or even unsure, of Fredo, why did he tell Fredo about his plan to whack Roth, and when he was going to do it? And, even if he wasn't at all suspicious or unsure of Fredo, why tell him at all, since he didn't want Fredo to do anything to help him? Since Fredo was "weak and stupid," as Michael told Tom, there was a real chance he could screw things up even unintentionally.

TB, I think ya'll are all wrong about these furtive looks which I just don't see. However, your question about Michael telling Fredo is right on the money. His doing so makes no sense at all.

I think the money was to string Fredo along. He had to suspect everyone and Fredo was the one with everything to gain based on the Senate's charts where he is listed as underboss. Like you said before Mike is constantly watching Fredo's reactions. How do you tell someone you trust them? Trust them with $2 mil cash, that's how. He pours honey in Fredo's ear and Fredo lets his guard down. This is the only reason I can see, other than being well greased from a night on yhe town, that he slips up in front of Michael at the show. I wouldve cut my own tongue out right there.

The only person Mike completely trust was Tom. Everyone else he feeds misinformation to see what comes of what. He doesn't know when he going to kill Roth until what Fredo says at the show. So telling Fredo before hand is purely misinformation.

What I don't understand is how he knew there was a traitor to begin with? Hundreeds of people were just at your house, none of them could find your bedroom window? Why not suspect the senator? Maybe him and Turnbull had hatched the plan lol.

My thinking as well. Michael was simply putting Fredo to the test.

Sonny, you could certainly infer that Michael was putting Fredo to the test in Havana, especially if you put weight on those suspicious looks Michael gives him. But it still leaves unanswered: If Michael did have any suspicions about Fredo, or if he was putting him to the test, why did he tell him about Roth's plan to have him assassinated--and his own plan to have Roth whacked--especially since he concluded by telling Fredo to do nothing?

Why did he not send the bodyguard to kill Roth prior to Fredo's slip? Misinformation. He know if Roth makes changes or leaves Cuba then Fredo is the bad apple.

I think Michael was willing to find out who the traitor was at any cost. I think to him that was more important than killing Roth so he put Fredo to the ultimate test. Seemingly showing Fredo his trust by sharing such delicate information was an easy way to trick him. I think that he still trusted Fredo just enough to take the risk. And besides, he could still kill Roth back in the States where he wasn't protected by a government. Why kill Roth in the lion's den in the first place? So he wouldn't have to deal with investigations back home? Would someone who kills four major crime bosses in one sweep still worry about such a thing?

As Michael told Pentangeli before leaving for Havana, he wanted Roth relaxed until he could find out who was the traitor in his family. Of course he could have had Roth killed at any time. But he had to hold out until the last minute until he knew who was the traitor. Notice how he dispatched the bodyguard to kill Roth the moment Fredo made his fatal gaffe at the Superman show.

I sure wouldn't have had fredo handling $2000000. Wheter it was to Havana or anywhere else. The equivalent to that now is somewhere north of $15000000. I would have had my best guys handling that.

Thanks for the recap of my whole point Turnbull

...and thanks to all for the great discussion.

I could go for days on Sopranos and the Godfather