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War with Iran? #619319
11/03/11 12:56 PM
11/03/11 12:56 PM
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ronnierocketAGO Offline OP
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Anyone remember that report published years ago about how back in spring 2008, allegedly Israel asked President Dubya if he would publicly support them if they commenced military airstrikes against the purported Iranian nuclear development sites? He said no, and said strikes never happened. If that anecdote is true, Dubya made the right decision.

With that in mind...

UK military steps up plans for Iran attack amid fresh nuclear fears

Quote:
Britain's armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran's nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned.

The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government.


Quote:
They made clear that Barack Obama, has no wish to embark on a new and provocative military venture before next November's presidential election. But they warned the calculations could change because of mounting anxiety over intelligence gathered by western agencies, and the more belligerent posture that Iran appears to have been taking.


Quote:
The Israeli cabinet was reported on Wednesday to be debating whether to launch air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in the coming weeks. The prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and the defence minister, Ehud Barak, are lobbying in favour of action, but other senior ministers are urging caution.

In response, Iran has warned, as it has in the past, that any attack by Israel would result in retaliation against the US. The Iranian news agency ISNA quoted Hassan Firouzabadi, Iran's military chief, as saying: "The Zionist regime's military attack against Iran will inflict heavy damages to the US as well as the Zionist regime."


Quote:

But Keane and other military colleagues giving evidence on Capitol Hill all stopped short of advocating an air strike against Iran. That has been line for years from the Pentagon, which sees all-out war against Iran as the worst of options.


who's up for a 4th war in a decade? We've got another trillion bucks under our couch cushions somewhere. God knows that there is no Anti-War movement in America, with the population on Iraq/Afghanistan either apathetic or not giving a shit while playing HALO instead.

the NeoCons are beating hard the same drums for more war, and Romney such a pussy push-over to that party base, he would start a war if he is elected. Unfortunately, I'm afraid that I could say the same thing to a degree with the current President when you read this:

Quote:
"I do not think the US has the stomach for it," Sam Gardiner, a retired air force colonel who taught strategy at the National War College and who has specialised in carrying out war games targeting Iran, said. But if Israel went ahead, it would be difficult for the US to stay out. "The US would have to be involved and finish it," he said.


Finish it?

Of course this all could be hot smoke, alot of this shit leaked simply a public posture of braun, deter the Tehran regime. I mean that first link talks of the British planning contingency plans, not planning to do it tomorrow after it picks up eggs and booze at the store. Big difference. Then you also read about the debate itself in Israel turning against the proposed strikes:

Quote:
In all the rising volume over Netanyahu and Barak’s plot to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilties, by far the most important sound in the air is silence – the silence of the heads of the IDF, IDF Intelligence, Mossad and Shin Bet. In his Friday column that broke it all open, Nahum Barnea wrote in Yediot Aharonot that the four security/intelligence chiefs – Benny Gantz (IDF), Aviv Cochavi (IDF Intelligence), Tamir Pardo (Mossad) and Yoram Cohen (Shin Bet) were all opposed to an attack. Since then, none of them have denied it, none of them or “sources close to” them have said a word. Which means it’s confirmed – all four leaders of Israel’s professional military-intelligence establishment are against bombing Iran.


To be continued?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/02/uk-military-iran-attack-nuclear

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/02/us-heading-war-iran-obama

http://972mag.com/finally-israel-wakes-up-to-the-israeli-threat/26931/

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #619827
11/08/11 08:32 PM
11/08/11 08:32 PM
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Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #619831
11/08/11 08:41 PM
11/08/11 08:41 PM
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Lilo Offline
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It would be an incredibly stupid idea.


"When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives."
Winter is Coming

Now this is the Law of the Jungle—as old and as true as the sky; And the wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the wolf that shall break it must die.
As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk, the Law runneth forward and back; For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Lilo] #619841
11/08/11 10:09 PM
11/08/11 10:09 PM
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Sicilian Babe Offline
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Originally Posted By: Lilo
It would be an incredibly stupid idea.


That's never stopped us before. tongue


President Emeritus of the Neal Pulcawer Fan Club
Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #619871
11/09/11 11:49 AM
11/09/11 11:49 AM
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Bombing Iran would almost definitely result in a massive increase of terrorist activity. Since Iran won't be capable of striking back themselves (they don't have the resources to hit America, probably not even Israel) they would likely retaliate with organizing terrorist attacks.

I think it would start a whole new chapter of terrorism activity.


"It was between the brothers Kay -- I had nothing to do with it."
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Sonny_Black] #620082
11/10/11 09:17 PM
11/10/11 09:17 PM
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Nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize the Middle East. Some countries fear Iran as much as Israel does--perhaps more, since they lack the military means to stop Iran. If Iran goes nuclear, so will Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and perhaps Syria. It has been widely reported that Saudi Arabia has been privately encouraging Israel to act, even offering some support.

The UN report that finally confirms Iran's nuclear activites could be viewed as a go-ahead for a preventive attack. But by whom? If the US attacks, Iran, which lacks the ability to strike directly at the US, will retaliate against Israel, possibly causing a major war. Knowing that, Israel might attack--but Israel would need guarantees of major diplomatic and possibly miitary support from the US.

BUT: US/Israel relations are at a near-alltime low--and got lower after the media reported on Obama's and Sarkozy's criticism of Netanyahu. Obama, who has said he doesn't want sanctions against Iran's central bank for fear of higher oil prices, isn't going to declare that any retaliatory attack on Israel by Iran would constitute an attack on the US. Very dangerous situation--not only for Israel and the entire Middle East, but for the world.


Ntra la porta tua lu sangu � sparsu,
E nun me mporta si ce muoru accisu...
E s'iddu muoru e vaju mparadisu
Si nun ce truovo a ttia, mancu ce trasu.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Turnbull] #620090
11/10/11 10:57 PM
11/10/11 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted By: Turnbull
Nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize the Middle East. Some countries fear Iran as much as Israel does--perhaps more, since they lack the military means to stop Iran.


The Middle East (or at least the one we've known) has already destabilized in '11. Syria, Iran's only regional ally, might be next to fall. The brutal crackdown on democratic demonstrators after the '09 election was rigged really turned off all those people wanting to topple their tyrants as a possible alternative governmental model.* Not to mention it's heavily subsidized economy has gone to shit.

Iran is much weaker now than it was when the last U.S. President left office.

Originally Posted By: Turnbull


The UN report that finally confirms Iran's nuclear activites could be viewed as a go-ahead for a preventive attack. But by whom?

If the US attacks, Iran, which lacks the ability to strike directly at the US, will retaliate against Israel, possibly causing a major war.


Or, American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan (you know, the countries situated inbetween Iran) are targeted in the first strike retaliation. If Americans strike first, that is the inevitable expectation retaliation.

If its the first strike in a campaign not merely to delay the nuke program, but regime change...regardless of who launched first strike, those American forces will be the target.

Originally Posted By: Turnbull

Knowing that, Israel might attack--but Israel would need guarantees of major diplomatic and possibly miitary support from the US.


Paranoid hypothetical: Israel goes ahread with the pre-emptive strike without the American greenlight. What then? Would the outraged American electorate (and conversely Congress) push the government into a war it didn't start or agree with in the first place in order to finish it?

Unlikely, but I wouldn't dismiss it. Israel is an arrogant ally that pretty much bullies its way with the U.S. regarding foreign policy, and not necessarily always in America's best interest.

Originally Posted By: Turnbull

BUT: US/Israel relations are at a near-alltime low--and got lower after the media reported on Obama's and Sarkozy's criticism of Netanyahu. Obama, who has said he doesn't want sanctions against Iran's central bank for fear of higher oil prices, isn't going to declare that any retaliatory attack on Israel by Iran would constitute an attack on the US.


Totally disagree. That public threat would be enough. Come to think of it, what happened to Obama's "nuclear shield" promise to Israel back in '09? Unless I've misunderstood that, its still in place. If it was ever implemented.

I'm not worried about Iran attacking because it's like stepping on Superman's cape.

*=Turkey is the model. Islamic and democratic, which unsurprisingly is alot more appealing than a theocratic/fascist dictatorship.

Last edited by ronnierocketAGO; 11/10/11 10:59 PM.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620159
11/11/11 08:00 PM
11/11/11 08:00 PM
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yigido Offline
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iran wouldnt get any regional support. because of them being shiite muslims and not sunni. if their would be anyone helping them i think it would be turkey.

and i personally think that ahmedinejad is just a big bluffer.(how many times did he threat israel?)

Re: War with Iran? [Re: yigido] #620207
11/12/11 11:18 AM
11/12/11 11:18 AM
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Yogi Barrabbas Offline
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Nice of this poxy Coalition government we have in the UK to offer support when they are currently ploughing through the biggest cuts to the military in recent years. I don't think we have any soldiers, planes or ships left to send anywhere??????


I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees!
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Yogi Barrabbas] #620217
11/12/11 12:16 PM
11/12/11 12:16 PM
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Gateshead, UK
Capo de La Cosa Nostra Offline
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Originally Posted By: Yogi Barrabbas
Nice of this poxy Coalition government we have in the UK to offer support when they are currently ploughing through the biggest cuts to the military in recent years. I don't think we have any soldiers, planes or ships left to send anywhere??????
That's alright, they'll just recruit from the working youth to whom the promise of actual employment is too tempting.


...dot com bold typeface rhetoric.
You go clickety click and get your head split.
'The hell you look like on a message board
Discussing whether or not the Brother is hardcore?
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Capo de La Cosa Nostra] #620219
11/12/11 12:24 PM
11/12/11 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted By: Capo de La Cosa Nostra
Originally Posted By: Yogi Barrabbas
Nice of this poxy Coalition government we have in the UK to offer support when they are currently ploughing through the biggest cuts to the military in recent years. I don't think we have any soldiers, planes or ships left to send anywhere??????
That's alright, they'll just recruit from the working youth to whom the promise of actual employment is too tempting.

Not sure if that's sarcasm, Mick, but there's some truth to that.

Young people are oftentimes forced to join the military in order to survive catastrophic economic times (like right now).


"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620234
11/12/11 01:35 PM
11/12/11 01:35 PM
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Gateshead, UK
Capo de La Cosa Nostra Offline
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It was both sarcastic and true. And sad.


...dot com bold typeface rhetoric.
You go clickety click and get your head split.
'The hell you look like on a message board
Discussing whether or not the Brother is hardcore?
Re: War with Iran? [Re: yigido] #620265
11/12/11 10:58 PM
11/12/11 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted By: yigido
iran wouldnt get any regional support. because of them being shiite muslims and not sunni. if their would be anyone helping them i think it would be turkey.

and i personally think that ahmedinejad is just a big bluffer.(how many times did he threat israel?)


Not to mention Ahmedinejad is a total bitch within his own government, if I remember the statistics correct, he's only the 11th most powerful figure within that regime. Nevermind publicly flogged by the Supreme Leader (the real boss) with open suggestions of outright eliminating the Presidency in his feud with his henchman.

Anyway that GOP debate confirmed a thought I already suggested, with Romney saying that if elected, "Iran will not get the bomb."

Re: War with Iran? [Re: Capo de La Cosa Nostra] #620266
11/12/11 10:58 PM
11/12/11 10:58 PM
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ronnierocketAGO Offline OP
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Originally Posted By: Capo de La Cosa Nostra
It was both sarcastic and true. And sad.



Off-topic, but you happy Berlusconi is gone?

(A dumb question, I know but it still had to be asked.)

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620275
11/13/11 04:23 AM
11/13/11 04:23 AM
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Newcastle-upon-Tyne UK
Yogi Barrabbas Offline
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Originally Posted By: ronnierocketAGO
Originally Posted By: Capo de La Cosa Nostra
It was both sarcastic and true. And sad.



Off-topic, but you happy Berlusconi is gone?

(A dumb question, I know but it still had to be asked.)

How will Italy cope without the great man???


I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees!
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Yogi Barrabbas] #620305
11/13/11 02:37 PM
11/13/11 02:37 PM
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ronnierocketAGO Offline OP
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Originally Posted By: Yogi Barrabbas


(A dumb question, I know but it still had to be asked.)

How will Italy cope without the great man???[/quote]

It'll be tough for any successor to fill those shoes at the Bunga Bunga parties.

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620309
11/13/11 02:46 PM
11/13/11 02:46 PM
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California
The Italian Stallionette Offline
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Honestly I'm not quite sure why Berlusconi stepped down. Was it the economy alone? I know he's had a reputation with young women but didn't think that was the reason. I mean in Italy? lol

Seriously, who is leading the country now or will there be another election? confused


TIS


"Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind. War will exist until that distant day when the conscientious objector enjoys the same reputation and prestige that the warrior does today." JFK

"War is over, if you want it" - John Lennon

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620323
11/13/11 04:31 PM
11/13/11 04:31 PM
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NJ
carmela Offline
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Mario Monti is in charge right now for organizing a government for Italy. He's the commissioner for the EU. Complete opposite of Berlusconi.

The people wanted him out. Not so much about the women (some were underage and that was the issue with that), but his mob ties, the economy is toppling, etc.

I wonder now what will happen with Matteo Messina Denaro, #1 fugitive in Italy, now that Berlusconi isn't in charge. Somehow I think his time on the run is near over. But what do I know. wink


La madre degli idioti e' sempre incinta.

Re: War with Iran? [Re: carmela] #620446
11/15/11 05:51 AM
11/15/11 05:51 AM
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Newcastle-upon-Tyne UK
Yogi Barrabbas Offline
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I wonder which European nation will be the next to go down the toilet??

So far we have had Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy and the thing that links these four is the fact i have been to these places which obviously makes me a jinx.

Also therefore means bad times ahead for Spain, Begium, Holland, Luxambourg, Norway and last (and certainly least) France!!


I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees!
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Yogi Barrabbas] #620455
11/15/11 11:04 AM
11/15/11 11:04 AM
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pizzaboy Offline
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Originally Posted By: Yogi Barrabbas
So far we have had Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy and the thing that links these four is the fact i have been to these places which obviously makes me a jinx.

So have I, and I'm doing fine tongue.

Maybe you really are a jinx, Yogi tongue lol.


"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: pizzaboy] #620511
11/16/11 11:03 AM
11/16/11 11:03 AM
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Newcastle-upon-Tyne UK
Yogi Barrabbas Offline
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Originally Posted By: pizzaboy
Originally Posted By: Yogi Barrabbas
So far we have had Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy and the thing that links these four is the fact i have been to these places which obviously makes me a jinx.

So have I, and I'm doing fine tongue.

Maybe you really are a jinx, Yogi tongue lol.


I knew it...... rolleyes


I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees!
Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620515
11/16/11 12:58 PM
11/16/11 12:58 PM
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ronnierocketAGO Offline OP
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What if Iran gets the bomb? The most serious speculated scenario for war worth reading:

Quote:
[T]he Obama administration should not discount the possibility of an Israeli-Iranian nuclear conflict. From the very start, the nuclear balance between these two antagonists would be unstable. Because of the significant disparity in the sizes of their respective arsenals (Iran would have a handful of warheads compared to Israel's estimated 100-200), both sides would have huge incentives to strike first in the event of a crisis.

Israel would likely believe that it had only a short period during which it could launch a nuclear attack that would wipe out most, if not all, of Iran's weapons and much of its nuclear infrastructure without Tehran being able to retaliate. For its part, Iran might decide to use its arsenal before Israel could destroy it with a preemptive attack. The absence of early warning systems on both sides and the extremely short flight time for ballistic missiles heading from one country to the other would only heighten the danger. Decision-makers would be under tremendous pressure to act quickly.


http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1...nuclear-program

An argument that the newly-released IAEA report actually decreases the likelyhood of war:

Quote:
The report also means that for the time being, an Israeli military strike will likely move to the back burner, and Jerusalem will focus instead on getting the world to impose crippling sanctions on Iran, not crippled sanctions like those that have already been passed.


http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=244845&R=R66

Last edited by ronnierocketAGO; 11/16/11 01:00 PM.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620576
11/17/11 12:59 PM
11/17/11 12:59 PM
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Israel’s Secret Iran Attack Plan: Electronic Warfare

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/20...ic-warfare.html

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620585
11/17/11 03:17 PM
11/17/11 03:17 PM
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That article posted above has something every American needs to read, specifically these passages:

Quote:
Netanyahu has refused to give any assurance to Obama or his top cabinet advisers that he would inform or ask permission before launching an attack on Iran that would likely spur the Iranians to launch a terrorist attack on the United States or Israel in response, according to U.S. and Israeli officials familiar with these meetings.


Quote:
One American close to the current prime minister said, “When Netanyahu came into office, the understanding was they will not make the same mistake that Olmert made and ask for something the president might say no to. Better to ask forgiveness than to ask permission.”


Quote:

The Israelis may be coy this time around because of the experience of then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. In 2007, the Israelis presented what they considered to be rock-solid evidence that Syria was building a covert nuclear facility at al-Kibar. They asked President Bush to bomb the facility, according to the new memoir from Condoleezza Rice.

“The president decided against a strike and suggested a diplomatic course to the Israeli prime minister,” she wrote. “Ehud Olmert thanked us for our input but rejected our advice, and the Israelis then expertly did the job themselves.”

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620923
11/19/11 08:03 PM
11/19/11 08:03 PM
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Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #620971
11/20/11 07:34 AM
11/20/11 07:34 AM
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Lilo Offline
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Originally Posted By: ronnierocketAGO


They have been saying that for the past 20 years. The neo-cons are also really beating the drums over this. Witness the editorial by former CIA officer, PNAC participant and AEI approved neo-con Reuel Marc Gerecht.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/opinio...nyt&emc=rss

Basically he wants to reconfigure Iranian sanctions to drive out European buyers of/ dealers in Iranian oil and let China get cheaper oil. This is of course the SAME China that is ramping up military spending, making noise about owning the entire South China Sea, polluting like crazy, propping up dictators over the world, and telling the US, Brazil and anyone else to go f*** themselves anytime someone brings up the indelicate fact of China's cheating and stealing on currency, tariff and intellectual property issues. And the writer wants to help give China cheaper oil...Yeah THAT makes sense.


"When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives."
Winter is Coming

Now this is the Law of the Jungle—as old and as true as the sky; And the wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the wolf that shall break it must die.
As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk, the Law runneth forward and back; For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: Lilo] #621005
11/20/11 02:14 PM
11/20/11 02:14 PM
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I agree 100%, Lilo. I hate to make a blanket statment that may come across as not quite politically correct, but it's enough already with the friggin Chinese.

There's a great article in this week's Time Magazine called "China: Obama's Real Problem." I can't seem to find a link online, but it's one of this week's cover stories.

Everyone should read it.


"I got news for you. If it wasn't for the toilet, there would be no books." --- George Costanza.
Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #621111
11/21/11 12:58 PM
11/21/11 12:58 PM
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ronnierocketAGO  Offline OP
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
Take this however you will. An argument that there isn't a Iran nuke program:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2011/11/iran-and-the-iaea.html

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #621304
11/23/11 03:27 PM
11/23/11 03:27 PM
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
R
ronnierocketAGO Offline OP
ronnierocketAGO  Offline OP
R

Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 13,145
East Tennessee
Did anyone actually read the recent IAEA report? (I didn't, to be honest.)

Quote:
The NIE left open the possibility that Iran could continue its weapons-relevant activities. With four years of additional perspective, the latest IAEA report gives greater detail on the weapons work that Iran did prior to 2003, then updates the available information on what lesser work occurred after 2003. The new activities included:


Quote:
- Engaging in experimental research, after 2003, on hemispherical initiation of high explosives.

- Further validation, after 2006, of a neutron initiator design.

- Conducting modeling studies, in 2008 and 2009, that could determine the yield of a nuclear explosion.

Carrying on scattered research activities does not amount to a full-fledged restart of an integrated weapons program. That type of activity still appears to have halted in 2003. The activities since seem more like Iran is refining its previous understanding of nuclear weapons design -- not breaking for a bomb.


http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/f...eas-report-iran

Re: War with Iran? [Re: ronnierocketAGO] #621352
11/24/11 06:18 AM
11/24/11 06:18 AM
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 8,845
Newcastle-upon-Tyne UK
Yogi Barrabbas Offline
Yogi Barrabbas  Offline

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 8,845
Newcastle-upon-Tyne UK
China seems to have gone power mad!!


I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees!
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