What if Sonny had kept his mouth shut at the Solozzo meeting, and hadn't revealed his greed for Sol's drug deal? Do you think Sol still would have tried to kill Vito?

I think that once Vito passed on the deal,the die was cast. As much as Sonny may have been in favor of the deal,he wasn't going to let Sollozzo off the hook. Even if Sonny hadn't tipped his hand, there was just too much money at stake to let Vito stand in the way,so he had to go. . Remember, after the shooting,Sollozzo wanted Tom to calm Sonny down and talk sense to him about the wisdom of getting into the business. Whether or not Sonny was in favor of the deal would be irrelevant since Sonny's temper and impulsiveness were well known in the Mafia world and his first act would be revenge. He was not smart or business savvy enough to understand that it was not personal. That's why Sonny had to go too.As Solozzo said, the Tattaglia's were behind him with all of their people. Of course we find out later that it's Barzini as well. Remember,Solozzo was not a made guy,so no way he could have hit Vito without the OK from above. The Mob was going into the drug business one way or the other,and to avoid a war,they would OK some "pre-emptive strikes". As we see later,after Sonny is killed,Vito makes an "accommodation" with the other Families, and against his counsel, they vote to organize the drug trade.

If Sonny had shut up following on similar thread

I too believe, Vito was a dead man either way - Yes or No - It was just a matter of time

Turnbull's posts on Barzini or similar, among others,
Barzini being the 'silent partner' [was using Sollozzo] to become Numero Uno

Barzini was getting “impatient with being the Number Two Don, wanted to dethrone Vito and take over
Barzini thought of himself as No.1 waiting in the wings, impatient to be the top dog in NYC

Sonny kept quiet or not Vito dead Barzini Numero Uno if not for Michael

Sollozzo had surmised in just their phone conversations that Tom was keen for the narcotics business before witnessing Sonny was hot for his deal

If Vito had said yes they would have got everything set up and then killed him

Vito's politicians would go over to the highest bidder as more than anything it was always the money
Sonny, with his temper couldn't cultivate or retain them for all the nickels and dimes in Vito's pocket

I come out about where Lou came out: Whether or not Sonny kept his mouth shut, Vito's "no" put Sol's back against the wall. He couldn't operate without Vito's police and politicians. Without them, Sol either had to go back to Sicily with his tail between his legs, or kill Vito. With Vito dead, half of his political support would be lost, as Tom noted to Sonny after the shooting. That would have put them into play for the other Dons--and Sol--to "buy." Then Sol could negotiate with Sonny for the police/politicos remaining loyal to the Corleones, and at a reduced rate because the Corleones would be gravely weakened with Vito dead.

The one big difference: Sonny's show of greed at the meeting emboldened Sol to take his shot at Vito--and no doubt to get the backing of Tattaglia and probably the other Dons. They would be wary of starting a war. But Sol told them: "There isn't going to be a war because Sonny is hot for a deal, and so is Hagen. He'll convince Sonny to cool his temper and accept a deal." If Sonny had kept quiet, Sol would have had to try harder to convince the Dons to back him in killing Vito. But, there, too, greed carries the day: their own greed for drug profits would have convinced them to back Sol. And, even if the other Dons were reluctant, Sol would have still tried to kill Vito and present the other Dons with a fait accompli, and the promise of drug profits.

My take, for what it is worth!

Whilst Sonny's blunder may have been catalyst in bringing Sollozzo and Barzini's plans forward....

Vito made it even easier for Sollozzo, Barzini / Tattaglia by handing Luca on a platter and Carlo did the same with Sonny

Whilst Vito was strangely curious / concerned to find out what Tattaglias had under their fingernails, Vito wasn't worried? about his safety not having beefed up his security
Vito left himself wide open for the murder attempt Vito was slipping indeed

Even though “Solozzo was not a made guy” Sollozzo was still able to approach Barzini [it was Barzini all along] and scored a meeting with Vito, all on his own merit without anyone vouching for him So Sollozzo must have had clout

Perhaps debatable points could be, among others,

• How can the killing of the father not be personal?
• Would / could Sonny still do business with the same people who murdered his father Vito, the same business Vito refused and was murdered because of his refusal
• How would Clemenza and Tessio react to Sonny collaborating with the same people who murdered Vito especially as Clemenza and Tessio actually witnessed Sonny's blunder even though Tom says for Sonny to make the deal if Vito dies
• I doubt any “police/politicos [would] remain loyal to the Corleones” especially with Vito dead and Barzini offering them a lot more money - “all our people are business men, their loyalty is based on that”
• I believe Sollozzo would have already had the backing of all the other Dons through Barzini, Sollozzo's 'silent partner'
• Sollozzo would have kept Barzini and their 'partners' informed about Tom's eagerness for the narcotics trade
• I believe all of Sollozzo and Barzini's plans would have been in motion, loaded and ready to fire - Vito dead, Barzini Numero Uno, drug riches

However the Trilogy theme of under / over estimating each other - in this instance, Vito underestimating Sollozzo, Sollozzo and McCluskey underestimating Michael

Thank you for compressing some of my earlier threads relating to this one, Lana.

Tattaglia vouched for Solozzo, as Vito said to Sol before he said "no."

We don't know for sure that Sol wasnt a made man--not made in the USA, perhaps, but possibly made in Sicily.

Sorry I was not clear about my sources

Extracts:

Vito's slipup

Vito saw Sollozzo because as Vito said "Vito heard that Sollozzo is a serious man, to be treated with respect"

So how do we figure that “Tattaglia vouched for Solozzo”

VITO CORLEONE

And what is the interest for the Tattaglia Family?

SOLLOZZO (to Tom)

My compliments.

(then to Don Corleone)

I'll take care of the Tattaglia's, outta my share.[/quote/]
Sol would never have gotten an audience with Vito unless another Don vouched for him. "My compliments" was not Sol admitting that he was trying to hide Tatt's vouching for him, it was his way of was buttering up Tom to reinforce Tom's enthusiasm for the drugs deal.

and Tom didn't dig deep enough to reveal Barzini connection

I think you might be letting knowledge of the book bleed into what actually happens in the movie. The book makes it clear that the Tattaglias are sponsoring Sol, but that's purged from the movie. Sol's compliments are presented immediately after Tom reveals the connection to the Tattaglias, so if Sol is buttering Tom then that discovery is what he's buttering him with.

That said, if Copolla inserted this cagey little exchange as a dramatic flourish, he shot himself in the foot. If the Tattaglias DIDN'T ask for the meeting, then Vito never REFUSED them an accommodation, and the war never happened. It was all a dream....

My thinking is that there probably was no Barzini connection at that point. I think Sol and the Tattaglias would have turned to Barzini first, and that Barzini told them that the Corleones would have to be on board. That sets up the necessity of the meeting, with the inevitable rejection from Vito and response from Sol and the Tattaglias.

Pete, I can see that reasoning. The drug traffic, as evidenced by Vito's and the Detroit Don's statements about drugs, was already up and running. Sol's drug operation was just one of what was probably several at the time. I don't see Vito's participation in it as critical, but only useful or helpful to Sollozzo, and the Tattaglia's. Barzini's involvement could have been from the outset, but probably emerged as Barzini saw it as a way to replace Vito as NY's crime czar.

By the way, a Consigliere doesn't drop from Heaven with consummate knowledge of the criminal underworld's machinations. Tom has his failings, but he operated in a much different, fast-paced environment than did Genco. Also, neither the novel or the film give us all that much information about Genco's successes and failures.

I speculated a while back that Sol may have approached Barzini first about a drugs deal because he figured Barzini had the most to gain from partnership with him, while Vito, already on top with rackets far less dangerous than drugs, didn't need Sol. I also speculated that Barzini advised Sol to go to Tattaglia because Vito wouldn't be worried about him, but would be concerned if he knew that Barzini was Sol's partner. Just speculation.

No, Tom didn't suss out Barzini. But, what surprises me is that Vito didn't figure that out, either. He said to Tom after the Commission meeting that he didn't know until that day that Barzini was behind it. "Tattaglia is a pimp--he could never have outfought Santino" Well, Vito, Tattaglia was a pimp before the Great War of 1946--how come it took you that long to figure it out?

No, Tom didn't suss out Barzini. But, what surprises me is that Vito didn't figure that out, either. He said to Tom after the Commission meeting that he didn't know until that day that Barzini was behind it. "Tattaglia is a pimp--he could never have outfought Santino" Well, Vito, Tattaglia was a pimp before the Great War of 1946--how come it took you that long to figure it out?

TB, I have trouble understanding just why Vito's role in the proposed drug operation was considered so vital. Certainly, the other NY families had political and legal influence. While Vito's participation would be helpful, it wasn't essential. Thus, I conclude that Sollozzo's approach to Vito was just part of Barzini's long-range plan to depose Vito. As you point out, Sollozzo's partnership with the Tattaglias was just a ploy by Barzini to mislead Vito.

I think Vito always knew that Tattaglia wasn't the true force behind Sollozzo. That's why he sent Luca Brasi on the ill-fated mission to find out what Sollozzo had "under his fingernails."

But he didn't know that it was Barzini all along until the night of the meeting, when Barzini sat at the head of the table and did most of the talking.

Maybe he should have realized that Barzini had the most to gain, but Vito didn't recognize the urgency of the situation until he was shot and, by the time he was back on his feet, his priority was Michael's safety, not revenge or protecting his empire.

That's a good point, Oli.

Vito claimed all along that his "friends in politics" wouldn't stay friendly if they knew his business was drugs. But there's no indication that the Corleones lost any political influence after he capitulated at the Dons' meeting.

I think maybe what they needed most from Vito was not active participation but to stay out of the way. Vito did have the most influence among politicians, media, etc. and, if he focused that influence against the drug trade it would have caused great difficulties from Sollozzo, et al. But if he at least stayed on the sidelines, they felt the drug business would flourish.

It is the business they had chosen


Why the interest, the curiosity after knocking it back?

No doubt something as big as this would have needed the backing of someone like Barzini not "Tattaglia a pimp-- Should have raised red flags It is the Consigliere's job to suss out

I reckon Vito's participation was essential otherwise why would Barzini still need Don Corleone's judges and politicians even after that long

Vito had to spell it out to Tom that "Tattaglia is a pimp--” it was Barzini all along even after the peace meeting

Vito had stated to Sollozzo “there's not gonna be no trouble from me”! -

“I wish to congratulate you on your new business, I know you'll do very well and good luck to you, especially since your interests don't conflict with mine”

Vito curiosity killed Luca

calling it dirty business didn't help Sollozzo was insulted Vito changed to a little dangerous

Sollozzo / Barzini's strategy could also have been to let Tom discover the Tattaglia connection, hoping Tom would then stop digging deeper Tom obliged!

Sollozzo inwardly feeling smug that the Corleones have no idea about Barzini connection

My take, for what it is worth!

I watched the peace meeting scene closely! as to why Vito's participation in the proposed drug operation was so vital, critical to it's success and it seems -
Extracts:

• Tattaglia stated “Vito had ALL the judges and politicians in his pocket. He refused to share them”
• Barzini stated “Don Corleone had ALL the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them or let us others use them”
• Even though Tattaglia and Barzini seem to use 'had' the discussion was in the present tense ie: they were still after Vito's protection even after that long
• Barzini concluded “Don Corleone will give us protection in the East and there will be peace”
• Does this mean the other New York families did not have political and legal influence? Hence Vito's protection was essential for the proposed drug operation
• The drug operation in New York was not up and running? even after that long
• What I found even more telling is Tattaglia's “as time goes by and Vito's position becomes stronger will he attempt any individual vendetta?”
• So, even though Vito was in a 'weak' position, the other families couldn't prise the judges and the politicians away from the Corleones
• The judges and the politicians were still in Vito's pocket and remained loyal to Vito as long as Vito was alive

Thus I also deduce that Vito's participation and protection in the proposed drug operation was essential indeed

One question is why would Sol tell Tom, "The Tattaglia family is behind me with all their people. The other New York Families will go along with anything that will prevent a full-scale war." People make tactical errors, but since Sol is trying to avoid a lengthy war it would make sense to reveal the Barzini connection then, because he would want his side to look as big as possible. The simple explanation is that Barzini wasn't on board, yet.

Furthermore, Sol should have been very suspicious if Barzini had told him, "Go attack the Corleones and kill Vito. I'll support you in the ensuing war if there is one, but don't tell anyone I said that." Again, the simpler answer is that Barzini was still holding back, and (along with the other families) only picked sides after the Corleones killed the police captain.

All of this then explains Vito: "Tattaglia's a pimp -- he never could've outfought Santino. But I didn't know until this day that it was -- Barzini all along...." He's been pondering the dynamic of Sol and Tat, and like an astronomer he knows there's some bigger force that was acting on both of them. It's only at the conference that he finally figures out that Barzini was that force.

I think Tatt and Barz were exaggerating, but they had a point:
All Mob families have police and political protection in order to protect their operations and stay in business. As long as their rackets are (in Vito's words) "harmless vices" like gambling, liquor and prostitution, the cops and politicos are easy to "buy." But drugs, as Vito said, "is a dirty business." That's why judges are so important. The novel provides detail missing from the film:

At their meeting, Sol tells Vito: "Even a Sicilian sentenced to 20 years could break omerta and talk his brains out, endangering higher-ups." He pledges to Vito that he will use operatives with clean records "so it will be logical for judges to hand down light sentences." For Sol, that was the essential value of a partnership with Vito: he may not have had all the judges in NY, but he had most of them. More important, he had earned (bought, if you will) their trust and loyalty over the years. Only Vito could prevail on judges to hand down light sentences to Sol's operatives if they were caught.

I think Sol was telling the truth: None of the families, including Barzii, would want a full-scale war. It wouldn't have been necessary for him to emphasize Barzini at that point.

Corleones killed the police captain only after Vito's two murder attempts the second one even as Vito lay helpless in his hospital bed

I doubt the hit on the top, most powerful, Numero Uno Mafia Don would have been carried out on just the say-so of Tattaglia a pimp Hence Barzini must have been on board, already picked sides

It is inconceivable one family would have monopoly, could never happen in real life!

Barzini was the glaringly obvious bigger force Sonny is blamed so must Vito and Tom