There can only be one other theory. Michael had more traitors on his team. Seemed like Mike didn't really trust Rocco at this point.

Digging deeper, I have to wonder who got Roth out of Cuba? Ola was dead, and Batista's people were running for their own lives. I suppose it could have been someone from Batista's camp, but if so that person would have had to know of the Fredo/Roth alliance. Then again hasn't it always been assumed that Questadt's being at the Batista meeting was some kind of mistake? Maybe it wasn't!

I agree with several others in this thread about the depth of Fredo's involvement in the assassination. I feel like, to whatever extent we can trust the film makers to have given us clues about how the attempted hit on Michael happened, it just has to be Fredo (or I suppose "his men", on Fredo's orders) who opened the drapes and later killed the two gunmen, however implausible that seems. And thus Fredo had to have known it was a hit. Any other theory would have to be invented out of whole cloth, based on nothing.

Although I can't immediately put my finger on a particular reason, I always had a strong impression that Roth's ties to Cuba stretched back decades, perhaps even to prohibition times (Cuba obviously being a prime source for the 'rumrunning' racket back in those days). If that were true I'm sure he would have had the 'local resources' to escape from Cuba when needed - more so than perhaps anyone else caught on the island at the time?

That sounds plausible to me...

Yes I would agree, his strong ties to Cuba he more than likely knew how to get out especially with the rebellion starting up he had to have known "other ways" to get out if Batista was overtaken.

Roth: "This county's had rebels for the last fifty years -- it's in their blood, believe me, I know. I've been coming here since the 20's. We were running molasses out of Havana when you were a baby -- the trucks, owned by your father."

Aha! Of course, thanks. Cool scene - that would explain my "strong impression" then...

Note to self: when you begin to forget the actual lines, it's time to once again dust off that boxed set and set an evening aside... or book yourself in for a brain scan.

Turnbull,

I always enjoy reading your posts. Very informative and well thought out.

The wild-card in the Roth theories is that when Roth went to the hospital, he wasn't faking. He was about to get smothered with a pillow and wasn't making any defensive moves. I'm not sure how far this mitigates his craftiness, but to a certain extent, he wasn't faking some things.

Thank you!

Roth had suffered a stroke in his hotel room, so he wasn't even conscious when brought to the hospital. He wasn't in a position to be crafty.

IMO, it comes down to greed: Michael, greedy for Roth's "legitimate" Havana interests, blinded himself to Roth's craftiness. Roth, greedy for the $2 million, blinded himself to Michael's being onto his game. Michael won, but by a hair.

TB, are you sure about that. I think that, plain and simple, Michael wanted Roth dead. That's why he told Fredo that Roth wouldn't see the new year. I think Michael's Cuba sojourn was only intended to get rid of Roth.

olivant, yes I agree that Michael wanted Roth dead and he truly thought he wouldn't see the new year but like TB said he didn't plan on Roth having the stroke either.

Oli, sure, Michael wanted Roth dead. But only after he found out who was the traitor in his family. I think that was the main purpose of his trip to Cuba.

And, yes, Michael had good reason to want Roth dead after he concluded that Roth was behind the Tahoe attack. But, the decision to have him whacked in Cuba may have been prompted by his knowledge that Roth was planning to have him whacked after the Presidential New Year's Eve party--kill or be killed. Whacking Roth in Cuba would have been more dangerous than having him killed in the US.

Maybe, but that is exactly what Michael tried to do. That bodyguard guy wacked Ola and was going to wack Roth, but Batista's cops got in the way.

Actually in a way Castro taking over was a lucky break for Michael. Roth lost a ton of money, and influence.

Thanks for the link reference

Reinforce "Pop had Genco -- look what I got" He let Michael perjure himself, very nearly ended in prison

Yes. I sympathize with Tom to a point. But, I draw the line there. He tells Michael, "Our people with the New York detectives said Pentangeli was half-dead, scared, talking out loud about how you betrayed him...
"Our people"??? How about you, Tom: why didn't you know about it????

Vito was slipping If anybody is to be blamed, first and foremost, it is Vito for appointing Tom as consiglieri
Michael's concern was justified and in times, detrimental too

Tom had strange wealth of information, Fredo was talking to him yet another failure of his instead of finding out what he's got under his fingernails, I reckon Tom says gleefully! payback time!!
“No way we can get to him. If we don't it's up to five counts of perjury”
"Fredo says he doesn't know anything I believe him"
“Roth played this one beautifully” ”

Now I believe it was Tom who opened the drapes in Michael and Kay's bedroom!
Fredo is a pimp He never could have outfought Michael but I didn't know until this day that it was Tom all along!

Extract:
Very informative thread indeed

Sure thing Fredo was undoubtedly in with Roth and Ola far more deeply in his treacherous betrayal of Michael

I acknowledge the above is may have been scenario....My queries please and somewhat confusing take!

• Did Roth and Ola know that they will never see the New Year?
• They seemed pretty slack considering how Michael's bodyguard, Bussetta was able to just walk into Ola's hotel room and killed him
• How and why would Fredo have contacts in the Cuban government?
• Why would Roth / Ola organise or feel the necessity for Fredo to have contacts in the Cuban government
• Besides Fredo could and wouldn't have already told Roth / Ola straight after Michael told Fredo “Hyman Roth will never see the New Year” unless Fredo's guilty conscience pricked him!
• Why would Fredo wait until the Presidential Palace New Year reception and then tell his contacts in the Cuban government even if he had any unless because of Roth's no show
• Anyway, Roth and Ola should have been already dead?
• More importantly no one knew of Roth's stroke, at the New Year reception [however acknowledge the military could have gone to Roth's hotel to 'check' on him if Roth's no show was detected and found out Roth was in the hospital]
• Then again why would the military go to rescue Roth as at that stage if my memory serves me right, Batista had not resigned his presidency unless the military after informing Batista of his untenable position due to the rebels taking over, went to take care of Batista's old friend and associate Roth

As regards Tom the Consigliere and lawyer, Tom seemed clueless "Duh-h-h, Tom!" - or it was all an act for aspiring Don Tom!

If Tom was being tentative, perhaps trying to protect Fredo but in the process let his one and only client Michael perjure himself, who very nearly could have ended up in prison indeed if Michael had not brought Frankie Pentangeli's brother Vincenzo over

Fredo kept the trust Michael entrusted but couldn't continue wanted to be Don

Lana, not everything in that scene was logical or even credible--FFC took directoral license to enhance the drama, as he did throughout the Trilogy. Keep in mind the broad themes:

1. Greed motivated both Michael and Roth: Michael, greedy for Roth's Cuban gaming empire; Roth for the $2 million and the opportunity to put Michael in the killing-bottle in Cuba. Greed makes people careless; or as Vito said, "Women and children can afford to be careless, but not men."
2. Corollary to the above: They underestimated each other: Michael, initially thinking Roth was a harmless old man; Roth, thinking Michael still didn't know he was behind the Tahoe shooting. Michael was the more clever because he knew, right after the shooting that Roth was behind it.

Those themes run throughout the Trilogy. Greed for money made Pauilie Gatto think he could get away with betraying Vito; greed for revenge blinded Carlo to the fact that his beating of Connie would identify him as Sonny's betrayer; greed for respect and status was Fredo's undoing. And, Vito underestimated Solozzo and Tattaglia; Sol and Mac underestimated Michael; Sonny and Tom underestimated Carlo; Carlo underestimated Michael; Michael underestimated Altobello; Vincent and Michael underestimated Mosca, etc., etc.

Keep in mind, too, that Michael brought the bodyguard, Buscetta, to Cuba in part to fool Roth into thinking that he still had no clue about who was behind the Tahoe shooting, hence he didn't bring Rocco and/or Neri. Roth and Ola, seemingly protected by Batista's forces, thought they had nothing to fear from Buscetta.

Fredo had not been outed as the traitor in the family until the superman show

I believe, Fredo had plenty time and probably opportunities to tell Roth / Ola

• Michael had figured Roth was the one who engineered the Tahoe bedroom shooting, failing which Roth had now arranged for Michael to be killed in the Cuban military car taking Michael back to his hotel after the New Year party
• Michael had arranged for Roth to never see the New Year

It seems to me for whatever reason Fredo chose not to go running to Roth / Ola with this pivotal information “keeping the trust Michael had entrusted” when the brothers were having drinks

However when the senate hearing came around Fredo withheld all the information that could have helped Michael because the jealousy, resentment was back and the misguided allure of becoming Don Fredo - something in it for me - was too much pull to resist

Also if and once Michael got into that Cuban military car - Bussetta, Neri, Rocco – no one, nothing would have saved Michael!

Tom took his time coming to see Michael because he was killing the assassins!

Nobody until they actually saw Michael alive would have thought Michael survived the shooting
Who can that sort of machine gun fire in such a confined space of a bedroom?!

So the dead assassins is another anomaly Whodunit and why

What are we to make of it?!

Comical