Mafia's Future

Over on my blog, http://cosa-nostra-news.blogspot.com/, you can see a series of charts that show some trends in global crime outfits, primarily in terms of size, that make LCN seem like a fart in the wind.

As I wrote, "With 1,100 members, 80% of which are tripping over one another in New York and its outer boroughs, the American "La Cosa Nostra," which is the official FBI term for the U.S.-based Mafia, is a mere hill of beans compared with other criminal outfits around the world.

"Just look at this chart... The Italian Comorra has 7,000 members -- but even that is a drop in the bucket when compared with the Russian mob, which has over 300,000 members around the world; the Triads, at 250,000; and the Yakuza, at 86,000.

"Maybe AG Holder was on to something when he consolidated the Fed's focus on O.C. in this country."

You need to scroll down to about the third post... Hope you find it edifying, if not necessarily enjoyable...

Nice blog. I love the Galante photo. It's always fun to go to Brooklyn and have a cup of coffee and Italian pastry in front of 205 Knickerbocker Ave.

Sometimes I see Russian Jews around Forest Hills and Rego Park with cryptic tattoos on their arms. Tattoos are forbidden by Jewish law. I figure these tattoos have some kind of significance with Russian Jewish mobsters.

As powerful as the Russian are said to be, it seems like they go to great lengths to avoid violence, because they don't have nearly as many shootings as other ethnic mobs.

Plus I feel that the Russians are largely involved in White Collar crime like Medicare fraud which is much harder to get busted/draw attention than traditional organized crime rackets like loan sharking, extortion, etc.

Very nice blog and chart! Only, doesn't the numbers given for the Sicilian Mafia fall a little short with only 2,500 members? And I also suspect the numbers given for the Russian Mafia are highly inflated.

The LCN is small potatoes on the world scale but is the most homegrown and imbedded in america

The American LCN is primarily a domestic operation. One that isn't really even national in scope anymore. So it's obviously different from the larger syndicates that are international in scope. That 1,100 figure was actually from 1999 when the UN cited it. Since then, according to the FBI, the total membership in the U.S. is down to about 1,000. At least 70% of it being the 5 NY families. If you throw the other remaining northeast families in there - New England, New Jersey, and Philadelphia - it goes up to 85%. Throw in the rest of the remaining members in the northeast and you're probably looking at close to 90% of the mob's membership in that single region of the country. Or, to put it another way, you could add up all of the remaining members outside of the northeast and it would roughly equal the smallest NY family.

I've always said that, if we're talking international groups, the Italian syndicates are a much better example than the American mob. But even then, you have to take a lot of these especially large membership estimates with a grain of salt. Even the experts don't always agree. For example, the FBI cites the Cosa Nostra as having 5,000 members and the 'Ndrangheta as having 6,000. However, Mafia expert, Letizia Paoli, cites the Cosa Nostra as having 3,500 members and the 'Ndrangheta 5,000. In other places I've seen 10,000 cited for the 'Ndrangheta. And 7,000 for the Camorra. The FBI cites 2,000 for the SCU but estimates for them vary as well. Getting into even much larger figures, like 300,000 for the Russians, 250,000 for the Chinese, and 86,000 for the Japanese can be even harder to read.

I agree. Identity theft and the stuff you mentioned are their big things. Being from Queens, I pay in cash for just about everything I purchase these days. I won't get a "Key Food" card or fill out info at the pharmacy or health club because I know what will happen. Restaurants too. Pay in cash!

The Russians have all these ambulette services around Queens that take sick old people from doctor to doctor all day long. It's a huge scam.

Salvine, who was a poster over on the Real Deal back in the day and a retired federal law enforcement officer, said that, the most of the international groups don't have the same presence in the U.S. that they do throughout much of the rest of the world, which he said is almost like an "open buffet." Obviously the Mexicans, who are right next door, are an exception. But the Italians, Russians, Chinese, Albanians have a "healthy respect" for American law enforcement and so they don't try to become as entrenched in the U.S. as they are elsewhere.

In other words, the new ethnic groups here haven't had the same opportunity to become entrenched like the Italians did. The LCN had a half century before RICO was first used. The newer groups don't have that luxury, which is why the predictions about them in this country haven't come true for the most part.

really good point

You aint kidding, I have personally seen a bunch of healthcare fraud being done by Russians over in the Bronx. It is crazy the amount of cash these smart guys must be pulling in.

Yup. Take a walk around Forest Hills between Grand Central and 108th Street. There are three or four mansions being constructed or renovated on every street. No exaggeration. They put the mafia mansions of Middle Village and Howard Beach to shame.

Is American law enforcement the strongest in the world? Is America the hardest place for OC to thrive now?

Italian and Russian mafia are 2 most powerful OC groups in the world,not the quantity but the quality.

you got to realize is the sicilians and us lcn have member and associates! dont knoe but msybe the chinese russians albanians dont have members and associates. maybe there all members?

The Yakuza are probably the most entrenched, "inextricably interwoven into the fabric of society" organized crime syndicate in the world, though I'm not sure how they would fare in a comparison of the "quality" of the average member.

I'd say American law enforcement, with it's resources, experience in organized crime investigations, RICO, the witness protection program, etc. is the most prepared to confront emerging crime groups and prevent them from becoming entrenched.

We also have to remember that it often comes to an agency jurisdictional thing. The FBI investigates the LCN, as well as the Russian, Asian, and Balkan criminal enterprises. The DEA is the agency that goes after the purely drug-trafficking groups the most, i.e. the Mexicans, Colombians, etc. Although there is obviously some overlap.

This guy is right. If you say that Camorra has 7000 members and the Russian mafia has 300000 people, then I understand the confusion.
Using the Camorra as an example, the 7000 pretty much refers to the total members in the clans...this totally excludes all the young guys pushing drugs for them in the squares, all the people who work for them distributing contraband, dropping off items, laundering money. These are people who we would traditionally consider to be 'members' but is simply the formal structure of the group that means we have to say the camorra 'only' has 7000. For example, it is estimated that they pretty much directly employ 300,000-400,000 in Campania alone.

The Russians, for example as we all know, have a much more loose, renegade structure so it is easy to count even Pavel who sometimes steals vodka from the shop as an OC veteran...

You ain't kidding.

I was a business agent (Teamsters Local 813) for the funeral directors and hearse drivers at Parkside Chapel and Schwartz Brothers (among others), which are both on Queens Boulevard, so I spent quite a bit of time in that area. There are tons of moneyed Russian and Bukharian Jews in that neighborhood. Now I'm not implying that they're all crooks, but they can't all be barbers .

I was out there just last week to have lunch with a friend on Austin Street. On my way back to Throggs Neck, I took the side streets to the Grand Central. You have to see some of the houses going up by the old Parkway hospital on 113th Street. They're beyond belief. They kind of remind me of the houses that went up on Ocean Parkway in Brooklyn a few years back. They were knocking down million dollar homes just for the sake of putting up new ones.

That says it all, Ivy. They'll never be another prohibition. They'll never be another Tammany Hall to protect the bosses from prosecution. Those days are long gone. No ethnic group (including the present day Italians) will ever have the same opportunities that the Italian American gangsters did eighty years ago.

All that said, OC will always be around to some degree because people will always want to gamble and borrow money (among other things). Someone will be there to provide these services. Whether it's the Italians, the Chinese, the Russians or the Albanians, there will always be criminal minded opportunistic people in the world.

The Russians and Chinese don't have the same initiation rituals as the Italian Mafia. On that chart, only the "made members" of the Mafia are shown as opposed to all the associates of the different criminal syndicates, and even then these numbers are likely inflated. It's not a good comparison.

russians and chineses estimates include both made members (if they have any ritual) and associates, the camorra has 7.000 inducted members but you have to add 70.000 associates same for cosa nostra ndrangheta and scu

Very interesting charts. Although I can't help but think that strictly speaking in the next 40+ years all genuine Italian-American's in La Cosa Nostra will eventually die out. And after each spouse and each generation has passed surely LCN will then have to implement guys from Southern Italy?

Just like the Westies who went from a prominently Irish ethnic organization to an influx of Serbian members.

People were floating that theory about bringing Italians over 20 years ago. Eventually all the families will give way to general attrition - the last being the 5 NY families. I'm not sure how long it will take but they will always be Italian-American crime families for as long as they're around.

but the chart about russian mafia is totally bullshit lmao
in the italy chart sicilian mafia has more than 2500 inducted members, at least 5.000

i think theres 16000 associates in sicily

Speaking of, what do you think of independent Italian criminals in the United States, you've mentioned that poster at RD who's talked about the respect that foreign criminals have the power of American law-enforcement, I imagine this also applies to Italian, real Italian wiseguys.
Is there a zero presence of Ndrengheta, Cosa Nostra, or Camorra guys in the United States, or do they cozy up with Italian-American wiseguys?

I do think the New York families will always be around in one form or another, but they will probably eventually mutate into something else. In 100 years they will be virtually unrecognizable I bet.

Things are going to get really interesting when the cohort of mobsters born between 1920-1940 finally dies out. As I have said before, when that happens, the Genovese family will probably turn into just another mob gang instead of the whole "Ivy League" thing.

For some reason I find the whole attrition process fascinating to observe.

I would rather think this will happen when the generation that was born between 1940-1960 dies out. These were guys that were schooled by the older generation.

but arent the ones being schooled now being schooled by the middle generation which was schooled by the 1920-1940 generation?

Yes, but eventually general attrition will take its toll. Also, the ones that were born between 1940-1960 grew up in the time the mob was still thriving. They were schooled by the guys who knew Genovese, Luciano and Costello. The still have the necessary experience.

yh but if the genovese are that picky in who becomes made etc like being on year probation and two people have to vouch then it will still have less peole cooperating in thirty forty years plus like i said they will be schooling the young how they were being schooled. anyway we'll see

50.000 i think is more probable, without counting all the relatives of single mafiosi who are often involved in a way or another and they are very much

Now you know I was born in 1959, Sonny. Are you trying to jinx me?

It said that in boss of bosses book but can't exactly remember

That's the thing, Short. Eventually, they won't be able to be as picky. Attrition not only thins out quantity, but also quality. After three or four generations in America, the hunger is gone. If you're raised by educated and professional Italian American parents, the odds of you becoming a wiseguy are quite slim. The time will eventually come when even the Genovese family will make a rat or two. And once that dam breaks, they'll be just like everyone else.

Ahhh I see your point. In years to come they will employ any Italian American they can get?

Exactly.

When do you think that will be?

I think it's like Ivy and Ivan said: When the guys who were born around 1940 start passing away.

It's true that the Genovese are the smartest, but they're also been very lucky. For whatever the reason, they've enjoyed longetivity. Not just in terms of their mob strength, but in the actual lengths of their lives. Some of these guys have lived beyond 90 years old. But no one lives forever.

So still quite a while since they live longer and especially since people are going to live longer

Btw. I know it's really off topic but you know carmine Persicos pic in prison with a suit on. Why did he gt a pic of him with a suit on folding his arms. So random :L

Shit, you're on to me.

No, there's some presence of the Cosa Nostra, 'Ndrangheta, and Camorra. But even the Cosa Nostra, which has the most of the Italian syndicates, doesn't have what it did during the "Pizza Connection" days. I can only think of a handful of cases involving these groups here in the U.S. in recent years. Obviously the presence is more evident up in Canada.

Just out of curiosity, would someone in their mid 20s be too old to start up in LCN?

No, your never too old as long as you help them make money they don't care if your 50 or 85. These days with a shrinking recruiting pool many guys get made in their 50s or 60s, with very few exceptions including Librio Bellomo and Alphonse Truccio and some others most are made later when they're in their 40s or 50s because they done prison time and been around the life more

Considering the fact that the average age of a mafioso nowadays is late 60's to early 70's, a guy in his mid-20's would be considered to young, if anything. Not as an associate or hanger-on but not too many 20-somethings getting made.

Thinking of making a career change?...

That's not true at all. It might appear that way because Bosko Radonjich briefly led the group during the 1990s. However, it was still predominantly Irish-American. He just happened to be the most trusted most respected guy after Shannon lost the top spot, because Bosko had connections with Coonan (and the other guys) and some Gambino connects as well. As the Westies had before him

My opinion is that the italian mob are finished in the USA,because the battle ground is much bigger now..not only hispanics but also Albanians,Russians,Serbs etc.The same goes for Europe except Italy the Cammora,'Ndrangheta are still holding the market in their hands besides the growth of black gangs and they got networks in Germany,Albania,France,England and Balkan.

They are far away from finished,and serbs in US ? I live in Serbia i am from Serbia and all i can tell u is that out criminals mostly go to Spain or South African Republic and thats it never US,only maybe Russians can challange italians,but they will work together,together they can make more money.But i agree that Camorra, 'Ndrangheta and Sicilian Mafia are major players in Europe.

Yes you are right about Spain and South Africa but im going to find the article that sad something about serbian gangs showin up in New York or Detriot i think and ill let you know!As for the Ital. mob in the US...i dont take gangsters that generate 2000 dollars in two weeks so serious,almost everyone that wants to do black market stuff can do that!

The Camorra, 'Ndrangheta and Sicilian Mafia also have strongholds here in the Netherlands, mostly due to the presence of Rotterdam, where a lot off the cocaine for the European market comes in. Then there´s the homegrown Dutch syndicates, the Chinese triads, Russians, Serbs etc.

Of course, this being Holland, our ganster culture is a little bit different. For example, gangsters literally get shot while riding their bicycle .

Here´s an example:

[image]



This guy was actually a feared hitman over here in Amsterdam, called Martin Hoogland, but even he enjoyed going out for some cycling . And then wound up being shotgunned to dead

Not exactly Serbs, but apparently all the really big-time gangsters in Cleveland are Croatians. It used to be an American Cosa Nostra stronghold, so yeah the American Mafia being surpassed by Yugoslavs has happened in at least one city.

PizzaBoy,

You know the secret, it's all in the food! We've got the better tables so it's fresher!

Eat at Andy's Colonial, live to 106!

The balkan mob named by Interpol The Pink Panthers organization,heres a wiki post...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Panthers

I can't quite tell if you're talking about the presence of the organized crime groups out of Italy being finished in the U.S. or the Italian-American mob simply being finished.

The Italian-American mob is certainly a primarily domestic operation at this point. And it is finished in a lot of places. But certainly not in New York, and to a lesser extent, in other parts of the northeast or Chicago.

As for the Italian syndicates, they obviously still have a large presence in western Europe, and to a lesser extent, Canada and Australia.

I was thinking the same thing.

He was an ex cop turned hitman for the Serbs, Jotsa Jocic in particular, and he had murdered Dutch godfather Klaas Bruinsma. He had it coming.

they have several strongholds in south america too

doesnt the italian and sicilian mafia control 80% of the narcotic trade in europe?

That he did. As a cop, he actually did undercover work, associating with Serbs etc. Problem was, he enjoyed it a bit too much and was fired, going full criminal after that.

I've heard that number before. Although they are very big into cocaine, especially the 'Ndrangheta, 80% seems very high, given the fact that there are other criminal syndicates in Europe too.

Here's an article (in English) about the 'Ndrangheta from the Spiegel, one of Germany's biggest newspapers. I think it was posted here before, but can't find it right now. If so, sorry for the rerun.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,806233,00.html

maybe 80% if importing it not the selling maybe

i think 80% is too high, they are sure the biggest european importer of cocaine since they have very links with colombians, but this estimates seem too high; they own routes in gioia tauro and other italian ports and hundreds camorra members in Spain that is colonized by napolitans; same for estimates that claim albanians import 80% of heroin that left only 20 for turks and others i dont know why this 80% come from

The 80% figure, which is about 5 years old now, originated with Italian law enforcement officials.

Thanks, and thanks to all of you for the positive comments. My traffic on a daily basis has DOUBLED in the past week and think this BB is partly the reason. So, thanks for your support.

Now Ivy League, you know your stuff! I had a question maybe you could answer -- does the 1,500 or 1,000 include associates? As we all probably know, each soldier has his own crew of associates ranging from - maybe 5 to 10? The number would be significantly higher. Then you have the crooked businessmen who share or pay mob bosses, some law enforcement-types on the payroll, etc. I think that number is strictly limited to made men, so perhaps you could times that number by 10! Look at all the press coverage the Mafia gets -- and not just in New York. Read any newspaper in any city, chances are, you'll find a mob story somewhere...

I haven't looked into this thread too deeply yet, so sorry if I repeated something someone else may have said.

no they are only made members they are 10.000 with associates

Yes, the roughly 1,000 are total "made" members in the U.S.

Because an associate can be defined in different ways, estimates are all over the place. The 10,000 figure coming from the assumed 10 associates for every member, which may not necessarily be the case anymore. Looking at the latest estimates for the NY families, 5 associates for ever member seems to be the ratio now. For Chicago, it's about 4 associates for every member. For New England and Philadelphia, it's about 2 associates for every member. And New Jersey has a ratio of about 1 associate for every member.

Getting back to the original intent of this post, I think we all agree that the American LCN will likely never achieve the power and money it had up to the late 1970's and early 1980's.

I think the more relevant question about the future of the LCN is how will morph and adapt to evade law enforcement and what new rackets / money making schemes will be pursued.

One of the most obvious changes in the last 10-15 years is that most of the NY families have moved to a ruling panel instead of the traditional Boss, Consigliere and Underboss administration.

LCN has gotten more savvy with internet schemes and stock / securities fraud.

As long as there is money to be made, the glorification of OC in the media and movies, there will be people interested in the life. They will always continue to try to control unions, run bookmaking and loansharking, deal drugs, extort businesses, etc.

I am interested in hearing other projections on how the LCN will continue to change and adapt.

Interestingly, the Gambinos, Luccheses, and Colombos seem to have gone back to the more traditional three-man administration (boss, underboss, consigliere). Of course, that can change quickly with one indictment. With so much change at the top, I do think acting bosses and ruling panels will be the rule more than the exception.

Gambling, loansharking, extortion, drug trafficking, labor/business racketeering, and robberies/fencing stolen goods are all still LCN staples. The one "growth" business for the LCN in the last 15 years or so has been various forms of fraud. Stock fraud cases have slowed down compared to the a decade ago but there's still be some in recent years. Other examples over that time have been health care fraud, real estate and mortgage fraud, telecommunications fraud, computer fraud, and ID and credit card fraud.

slowed down mean not into it that much nowadays?

The late 1990's and early 2000's was the main time for mob-related stock scams. But there have been a few since then, including 2 cases in 2005, 1 case in 2006, and 2 cases in 2010.

probs has slowed down but maybe its more difficult to prove and indict people on it?

I'd guess because the feds and the SEC became wise to the "pump and dump" scams and started watching things more closely.

yh i agree. how does the health fraud work?

Check out this article about how a Genovese crew was involved. Some may remember this kind of scam being a part of the pilot episode of The Sopranos.

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/08/21/nyregi...=all&src=pm

Amd are the mob still involved with these fraud systems or like stock fraud not as much nowadays? And cheers for that! Really interesting!

The Genovese family was involved in another case in the early 2000's and, around that same time, the Colombos were indirectly related by extorting protection money from Russian medical clinics. They were protecting them from being shaken down by the Russian mob.