Israel: 'State of war'

i'm on the battlefield right now
the amount of bodies i see is insane
i cannot even realize it's reality, i cannot believe this morning led to this !
they will pay for everything we will crush them !!!

Please you and your loved ones stay safe no one expected such a massive unprovoked attack by Hamas this had to be backed by other countries.

Islamic Jihad group claims capture of Israeli soldiers
Graeme Baker

Live reporter

Islamic Jihad, which operates in Gaza, claims its fighters have also captured "many" Israeli soldiers. In a post on Telegram, a spokesman calling himself Abu Hamza states:

"We confirm in the al-Quds Brigades that now, thanks to God, we possess many Zionist soldiers who are prisoners in our hands”

Islamic Jihad is one of several militant groups that operate in Gaza. The Quds Brigade is its armed wing. The group co-operates with Hamas but also maintains independence.

It is also active in the West Bank and has staged several attacks there on Israelis.

Israel last year said a series of strikes on its leadership had "taken them back decades".

i got a call by the army
almost half of israel did.

and yes it's really iran behind that, them and hezbollah might join too.
and this is the real scary thing.

we are now rescuing hostages in there houses, we are going house after house but it's tough we are under heavy fire so we are stuck..
we already saw and rescue tons of womens who got raped and a lot of bodies and injured people here
the sights will be with me forever you cannot imagine what i see here
please hug your friends and family and be there for them whenever they need you ! there is no important people in your life then them !

More than 900 Israelis have been wounded in the Hamas attacks, Israel's health ministry says. The MDA ambulance service says about 70 people are dead.

A major investigation has been launched as to how Israeli intelligence failed to see the well-coordinated Hamas attack coming, Israeli government officials have told the BBC.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas - a political rival of Hamas - supported the right of the Palestinian people to defend themselves against the "terror of settlers and occupation troops".

Couldn't have said it better. You be safe now!

i got hit by a shrapnel in my left forehead so i was getting help in field by a medic and then they took me to hospital to get better care
now i'm resting and later i'll be back to combat zone ! i'm ready to go back !

Jesus Christ, you are a reservist? Many have been called up by IDF I heard. You are a Hero Meyer be careful !

thank you holla ! thanks buddy ! god bless you !

Already 200 deaths terrible stuff. Israel will destroy them.

Its a big fail of Netanyahu his government is weak. Also a message to US and Saudi Arabia.

Fox News just reported 300 dead, 1000+ injured

https://twitter.com/GoldingBF/status/1710707723774329261
this is something beyond evil
no words to describe it...

Special Edition from the Institute for the Study of War


IRAN UPDATE SPECIAL EDITION, OCTOBER 7, 2023
Oct 7, 2023 - ISW Press









Iran Update Special Edition, October 7, 2023


Nicholas Carl

Hamas has launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel, marking the most significant escalation between the two sides in decades. Hundreds of Hamas fighters crossed from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory and attacked nearby border posts, military sites, and residential areas on October 7.[1] The group also launched a series of large-scale rocket attacks from the strip into Israeli territory throughout the day.[2] This operation has injured and killed hundreds of Israeli civilians thus far.[3] Israeli leaders have responded by describing the attack as an act of war and have given every indication that they will respond decisively.[4] Previous Israeli response patterns suggest that Israel would likely conduct a ground operation into the Gaza Strip meant to rout Hamas completely. Hamas leaders almost certainly considered this strong possibility when planning their attack. But they have no reason to believe that they could successfully defend against such an operation, given the relative strength of the Israeli military. This observation raises the question: what is Hamas’ theory of victory? This special edition explores three possible explanations—none of which are mutually exclusive—that may be driving Hamas’ current actions.

1. Hamas leaders may expect the conflict that they have ignited to expand to include other Palestinian militias as well as Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance. Iranian leaders use this term—the Axis of Resistance—to describe their international partner system of state, semi-state, and non-state actors.[5] This coalition includes Lebanese Hezbollah, Syria’s Bashar al Assad regime, Yemen’s Houthi movement, and myriad militias operating in Bahrain, Iraq, Palestine, and Syria, all of which Iran supports financially, materially, and politically.[6] Other Iranian-backed Palestinian militias have expressed their readiness to join the fight against Israel, but there are no indications at this time that non-Palestinian members of the Axis of Resistance are involved in the conflict.[7] The Axis of Resistance is nevertheless well-positioned to intervene if its leaders chose to do so given its military footprints in Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank. In fact, encircling Israel has been one of the key motivations for Iran’s extensive investment in supporting proxy and partner militias in these locations.

The fact that Hamas launched its operation on the anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War lends credence to the possibility that it expects support from others against Israel. One of the key features of that war was that Egypt’s surprise attack heralded a multi-front war.

2. Hamas may have based its current operation on Iranian leaders’ thinking about defeating Israel. Major General Hossein Salami—the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—presented in August 2022 the most explicit articulation from an Iranian official yet on how to destroy Israel.[9] Salami downplayed the role of drones and missiles and instead argued for Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian militias to conduct more ground operations and urban combat inside Israel. Salami asserted that such activities would generate internal displacement and sow chaos, which would ultimately destabilize Israel and lead to its decline. Hamas’ decision to conduct a ground attack into Israel and how it went about doing so are noteworthy in this context. The group indiscriminately killed, abused, and abducted civilians in the towns its fighters reached and posted images and videos of the acts online, likely in part to instill terror among Israelis.

3. Hamas may have sought to disrupt the US-led negotiations to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The attack into Israel has understandably focused international attention once again on Israel-Palestine dynamics. The Saudi Foreign Affairs Ministry released a statement on October 7 advocating for the Palestinian cause and affirming Riyadh’s support for a two-state solution.[11] This attack and whatever fallout ensues will likely complicate the normalization talks and could delay or even disrupt them.

One of the most dangerous courses of action Iran could pursue would be to exploit Israeli focus on the Gaza Strip in some way in the coming days and weeks. Iranian leaders will almost certainly look for opportunities to take advantage of the conflict even if they did not direct it. Iran could exploit Israeli distraction by moving advanced military systems into Lebanon and Syria or making significant advances in its nuclear program. This scenario is less likely than others at the moment, but it warrants consideration because it could set conditions for even more significant escalations or geopolitical changes. Incidents like Hamas’ attack no longer remain confined to the immediate area in which they occur. Each now carries the potential to grow into a larger phenomenon with ripple effects throughout the Middle East and even beyond.

The United States and its allies must remain vigilant against the danger that Iran and its partners may seek to expand the crisis caused by the Hamas attacks on Israel and must avoid the tendency to become narrowly focused on Gaza and the immediate Israeli response to this attack. Iran has been pursuing an offensive strategy in the Middle East aimed at expelling the United States, among many other things, for years, as CTP has previously assessed.[12] The October 7 Hamas attack could be a part of that larger effort.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-october-7-2023

This ongoing conflict is significant and needs to be solved once and for all, meaning is it going to be Israel or the other guys?! No two ways about it. Both sides should fight to the last man and stop listening to EU and the US. This time there shouldnt be any peace deals. Lets go all the way and lets see who is stronger?! Btw Im also all about nukes and where the hell are Israels rockets?!

The same thing is happening on the Balkans too with Serbia vs Kosovo. We need to go to the end with this shit. No more civilians. Everyone should take a gun and lets solve this by fighting to the last bullet or last individual. If Israel falls (God forbid), the muslim forces wont stop there.

I grew up first during a war in Yugoslavia, then Kosovo and in Serbia, then in Macedonia, followed by an ongoing conflict between Greece and Turkey which might erupt every moment.....many people are really tired of this shit, including me.

everyone here realize that it's either a second holocaust or us being alive.
we gonna give it all ! we have nothing to lose

Iranian politicians chanted 'death to Israel ' in their parliament on Saturday after Hamas's unprecedented, large-scale raid. Israel fires artillery towards Lebanon (Hezbollah).

The Israeli military knows Hamas took "dozens" of hostages, but is still trying to figure out the exact figure
From CNN's Niamh Kennedy in London

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is trying to establish the exact number of hostages that have been taken into Gaza, with the military’s international spokesperson emphasizing the “complicated” nature of the situation to CNN on Sunday.

Speaking to CNN’s Laila Harrak in an interview from Tel Aviv, IDF spokesman Lt. Col. Richard Hecht said the IDF understands that “dozens” of hostages have been taken into Gaza.

“Because life here is very sacred, we're making sure that we come out and understand the numbers exactly,” Hecht added.

A group of militia members transport an elderly Israeli woman captured in the Kfar Azza kibbutz, in Israel, on October 7, 2023, in the Gaza Strip.

In pictures: The deadly clashes in Israel and Gaza

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/07/world/gallery/israel-gaza-attack-2023/index.html

700 deaths in Israel now and around 170 hostages.

Terrible situation. Blessings to all who are hurting

Just horrible,

'Like a horror movie' - Israel music festival-goers fled in hail of bullets


For weeks, excited music-lovers had looked forward to the Supernova festival, held in the desert in southern Israel to coincide with the Jewish festival of Sukkot.

"The time has come when the whole family is about to get together again," organisers wrote on social media before it began. "And what fun it is going to be!"

Just hours later, their social media pages are now flooded with desperate people trying to find loved ones, after Palestinian militants stormed the festival and opened fire as part of huge surprise attack on Israel.

One partygoer, called Ortel, said the first sign that something was wrong was when a siren went off at around dawn, warning of rockets. Eyewitnesses said the rockets were quickly followed by gunshots.

"They turned off the electricity and suddenly out of nowhere they [militants] come inside with gunfire, opening fire in every direction," she told Israel's Channel 12.

"Fifty terrorists arrived in vans, dressed in military uniforms," she said.

The number of people killed and wounded at the festival is not yet clear. It is also not known whether Hamas took anyone hostage from the party, as they have done in other towns and villages.

But Yaniv, an emergency medic who was called out to the party, told public broadcaster Kan News: "There are at least 200 bodies of Israelis in the area I was in."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67047034

Senior Hamas member says the militant group is ready for "worst-case scenario"
From CNN's Ibrahim Dahman and Abeer Salman


In this file image Saleh Al-Arouri makes a speech in Cairo, Egypt, on October 12, 2017.

Senior Hamas member Saleh al-Arouri said the militant group, which runs Gaza, is ready "for all options, including a war and an escalation on all levels."

"We are ready for the worst-case scenario, including a ground invasion, which will be the best for us to decide the ending of this battle," al-Arouri told Al Jazeera Arabic Saturday.
Al-Arouri claimed there are ongoing "intensive international and regional efforts" to end the crisis, "but now nothing will be more important than the battle."

Meanwhile, the Izzedine al Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, on Saturday claimed they are still fighting in 25 locations.

The group also said in a statement that there are ongoing clashes at the Re'im military base near Gaza's northern border crossing with Israel.

BREAKING Explosions heard in central Israel as Hamas claims to target Ben Gurion Airport. Loud explosions were being heard across central Israel..

Israel needs to go Big , NOW!

Clear those rabid terrorist from all of the earth.

NATO and Israel have worked together for almost 30 years in domains such as science and technology, counter terrorism, civil preparedness, countering weapons of mass destruction and women, peace and security. Over the last years, cooperation has grown.Sep 28, 2023
https://www.nato.int › news_218698
Chair of the NATO Military Committee visits Israel, 27-Sep.-2023


NATO IS USELESS

I completely agree. Its time for Israel to step on them like you would cockroaches... Full Force!

These terrorists and the constant danger they pose have got to be stamped out, once and for all. They only know force and violence. If they wanna go see Allah that badly, Israel should accommodate them.

In several Dutch cities Palestinian supporters demonstrated today it's their right but I find it disturbing they support this brutal TERROR attack on civilians.

The MO of this huge operation has all the hallmarks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Recently Hamas leadership visited Teheran.

Well I wasn't wrong !

Iran helped Hamas weeks in advance planning
Saturday's attacks on Israel, reports the American
newspaper The Wall Street Journal based on high-placed sources within Hamas, among others.

Iran is considered one of Israel's biggest enemies. It was already known that the country supported Hamas' attacks. But it has not yet been explicitly said that it was involved in the planning of the attack.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Tehran gave
the green light for the attack on Israel during a meeting in Beirut on Monday

+1 brother and stay strong and let God be with you every second. Dont stop and go straight forward!!! I see there are some non-goverment troops from the Balkans heading towards your way for help. This shit needs to be solved once and for all!

Totally agree with every single word you have said here Toodoped. I am sick and tired of seeing these people get away with doing these things time and again with no repercussions. Now is the time to strike back hard and not stop until every last one of these motherfuckers are gone. THE ULTIMATE WAR IS THE ONLY SOLUTION!!!!

MeyerLansky you're a true hero!!! USA stands with Israel 1000%. I am so sick and tired of these fucking Muslims trying to intimidate us with their Allah akbar bullshit. Fuck 'em all!!!

I also agree regarding the nukes. I am all for using them against these people who we all know want to destroy us. It's self-defense!!

By the way I had a real good friend who was killed by Muslims in Kosovo. How are things in the Balkans right now

here !
i've been awake for so long so now i'm resting a bit after a lot of hours in the battlefield, a lot of shootouts, so if there are mistakes in my writing here please forgive me.

and thank you all ! god bless you all and your families !
please never ever vote for left wing parties in your countries !
no democrats and no left wing parties in europe ! they will ruin everything ! they will get these barbaric animals inside your countries because of stupid ''morale codes'' and marxism and then god help what's next when they are inside your homes
you'll be in the same place as us !
because this war as nothing to do with occupation, and land or whatever...
they are nazis who have thirst for blood !
they kill anyone and anything they can !

everyone here knows and said it loud and clear
if trump was here the world would have been a different place
these terrorist's would have shit their pants if they knew trump was in charge !

but when people who argue about what is the definition of a women and a men
and who let's children's cut their penises and change their gender, then the terror smell the weakness and act !

Trump will win Meyer!!!! I have full faith in him. There is absolutely NO FUCKING WAY that Biden will win this time around. Not that he won last time either

Trump is the only man who knows what to do I feel. He is a very smart man

i agree ! let's hope for trump 2024 ! the world needs him for peace and prosperity for all

Guess who is financing the terrorists...

"As the biggest donor of the Palestinians, the European Commission is putting its full development portfolio under review, worth a total of EUR 691m"

As I already said...stop listening to EU and NATO!

Don't forget Iran

This has be known for many years ! With structural financing by the EU, Europe legitimizes an authority that structurally glorifies terrorism. A Palestinian state built on the foundations of hatred and terrorism serves neither the interests of Israel nor those of the Palestinians themselves.
However this is a game changer and is seen like a sort of 9/11 or the major terror attacks in Europe.

Fight ML fight those fuckers…… you’re a true hero soldier being back out there.

They are rabid ungodly, inhumane criminal creatures who must be removed from our earth.

Israel: Hezbollah, stay out of the fight
\Israel has threatened to invade Lebanon if Hezbollah is joining Hamas in the battle
. According to the Israeli government , the US is also said to be joining the battle and supporting Israel from the Mediterranean Sea, reports the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth.
If Hezbollah interferes, Israel would also consider targeting Hezbollah's ally
Syria. According to the newspaper, threats have been made to
destroy the Syrian capital Damascus and assassinate President Assad.
Because Israel does not talk directly to Hezbollah, France is said to have passed on the message
to the fighting group.

Military branch Hamas: we will kill hostages if Israel continues bombing
The military wing of Hamas has threatened to execute Israeli prisoners if Israel continues to bomb and kill civilians in Gaza.

"Any attack on innocent civilians without warning will unfortunately be met with the execution of one of the prisoners in our custody. We will be forced to broadcast this execution," Abu Obeida, a spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, told Al-TV. Jazeera. “We regret this decision, but we hold Israel and its leaders responsible for it,” he said.

Earlier this evening, the Israeli government announced that 150 people were kidnapped by Hamas last weekend in the surprise attack from the Gaza Strip on southern Israel.

More than 100 bodies found in Israeli kibbutz Be’eri after Hamas attack
CNN
—
More than 100 bodies have been found in the Israeli kibbutz Be’eri, as details gradually emerge of the horror that unfolded as Palestinian Hamas militants launched their deadly surprise attack.

Be’eri, a self-sustaining farming community of 1,000 residents near Gaza, was one of first places targeted by militants who breached the border early Saturday morning, and among the hardest hit.

Civilians were killed and taken hostage, according to Israeli authorities and videos obtained and authenticated by CNN.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/10/middleeast/israel-beeri-bodies-found-idf-intl-hnk/index.html

Ground invasion of Gaza is no silver bullet against Hamas threat

Frank Gardner

Security correspondent

There is an assumption in some quarters that the threat to Israel from Hamas can somehow be eliminated once and for all with a full-scale invasion on the ground.

History would suggest this is unlikely to be the silver bullet some are hoping for.

When Israel invaded Gaza in 2014, more than 2,000 Palestinians were killed, with each funeral generating ever more radicalised young men.

Since then, Hamas has continued to fire rockets across the border.

Its armed wing is believed to number around 30,000 fighters, most of them fanatical in their determination to defend Palestinian land. They know their tunnels, cellars, bunkers and backstreets better than the invaders.

Such a densely populated piece of territory is no place for tanks, which would be highly vulnerable to ambush.

From a purely military standpoint, a ground assault could result in short-term success, eliminating most of Hamas’s commanders.

But in the absence of a lasting peace deal, Hamas would likely regenerate itself, calling up a new generation of angry, radicalised young fighters.

TUESDAY, 10 OCTOBER 2023 - 08:04

Netherlands increases security around Jewish institutions
The Ministry of Justice and Security drew up a list of Jewish institutions that may need extra protection on Saturday, shortly after the Hamas terrorist group committed attacks in Israel, sources told De Telegraaf.

As of Tuesday morning, Dutch time, around 900 people had been killed in Israel and nearly 700 people in the Palestinian territories. Hamas terrorists also abducted 150 Israelis, the Israeli government reported.
According to the newspaper’s insiders, the Justice Ministry sent the institutions, mayors, police, and Public Prosecution Service in the involved municipalities a letter asking them to do “an extra check” to see that security around the Jewish institutions was in order. The Ministry worried about an increased threat due to the devolving situation in Israel and Gaza.

Several cities heeded the warning. The increased security is clearly visible in Amsterdam-Zuid, where there are many Jewish institutions, according to the Telegraaf. Police cars and vehicles from the Koninklijke Marechaussee regularly make rounds at the Orthodox Jewish school Cheider and other important buildings for the community.

The authorities in Tilburg and Middelburg also took extra measures around the local synagogues since the weekend. The Tilburg synagogue reported a noticeable increase in threats since the Hamas attacks and Israel’s retaliation.

After a National Security Council meeting on Monday, outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that the government was “extra alert” to the security of Jewish buildings. He said that the Netherlands as a whole, and the Jewish community in particular, was shocked by the violence. He did not say what extra measures the authorities were taking around Jewish institutions. “We shouldn’t make people wiser than they are.”

Reporting by ANP

Israel and also Ukraine are a part of Europe not NATO members but we should do more to help them !

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 9, 2023
Oct 9, 2023 - ISW Press










Iran Update, October 9, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates weekly on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Hamas is expanding its incursions into southern Israel as Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) clash with Israeli security forces in the northern province of the country. The situation could expand the war to a second front. Hamas launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel on October 7 which included sending hundreds of fighters into Israel to attack nearby border posts, military sites, and residential areas. Israel is conducting airstrikes in Gaza to retaliate. Iran’s Axis of Resistance is aligning itself with Hamas’ operation, however

• Hamas’ militant wing the Al Qassam Brigade launched an attack into the Israeli town of Rahat, which is approximately 30 kilometers east of Gaza on October 9. The Al Qassam Brigade also fired rockets into Israeli territory on October 9, including into Jerusalem as Hamas called on people in the city to attack Israelis and be at the forefront of resistance.

• Palestinian militias conducted attacks against Israelis in the West Bank on October 9 in response to calls from The Lions’ Den (TLD), a West Bank militia that Israel Hayom claims is receiving funding from Hamas.[2] These attacks are consistent with Hamas’ stated objective for the Al Aqsa Flood Operation to extend to the West Bank.

•The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes on more than 500 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)-affiliated positions, including operational headquarters in Gaza on October 9.[4] The Israeli defense minister imposed a “complete siege” on Gaza, which cut off over two million people from electricity, food, water, and fuel.[5] Israel has mobilized 300,000 military reservists in Israel amid reports of preparations for a ground incursion into Gaza.

Members of the Axis of Resistance have issued threats that may lead the war between Israel and Palestinian militias to expand into the region.

• An unidentified Iranian official told Western media on October 8 that Iran would respond to an Israeli attack with missile strikes on Israel from Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen.[8] Missile strikes from Lebanon and Yemen would require the Iranian-backed militants in these countries—LH and the Houthi movement, respectively—to conduct the strikes. The official added that Iran would send fighters into Israel from Syria to attack northern and eastern Israel.

• Head of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization Hadi al Ameri threatened to attack US forces if the United States intervened in the war to support Israel.[9] Ameri’s statement came after the United States announced it would send a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to support Israel and supply Israeli forces with military equipment and ammunition. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq attacked US forces in Syria in March while Ameri advocated for diplomatic engagement with the United States to resolve issues in Iraq.

• LH conducted artillery strikes into Israel for the second consecutive day and at least six PIJ members attempted to cross into Israeli territory from southern Lebanon.[11] The Israeli government threatened to attack LH with the assistance of the US carrier strike group if LH continued to engage in the war with Hamas. Israel also warned that it would consider striking Damascus, Syria.

The Iranian regime is categorically denying Iran’s involvement in Hamas’s ground and air attack against Israel. The Wall Street Journal reported on October 8 that Iran helped plan the Al Aqsa Flood Operation in meetings with representatives from Hamas, LH, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Beirut since August 2023.[18] Iran’s Mission to the United Nations emphasized Iran’s “unflinching support” for Palestine but denied any Iranian involvement in the Al Aqsa Flood Operation in a statement on October 8.[19] Political advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Ali Shamkhani similarly described the Palestinian resistance movement as an “independent movement” on October 8.[20] Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani responded directly to the Wall Street Journal’s allegations on October 9, describing them as “based on political motives."

• US and Israeli officials have responded cautiously to reports of Iranian involvement in Hamas’s attack. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated on October 8 that the US government has not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind the October 7 attack. Blinken noted, however, that Iran and Hamas have a “long relationship.”[22] Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Brigadier General Daniel Hagari stated on October 9 that the Israeli military cannot yet determine whether Iran was involved in planning or training for the attack.

• Iran and Hamas improved relations in 2014 following a series of disagreements on regional developments in the early 2010s.[24] Iran has since then provided extensive material and financial support to Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed in April 2023 that Iran annually sends $100 million to Hamas, $700 million to LH, and tens of millions of dollars to PIJ.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) deployed forces to the southwestern Syrian border on October 9, however. Iran has built up a large military footprint in Syria to include weapons storage facilities, headquarters, and barracks to house its affiliated militias. The Iranian and LH-directed deployments are consistent with the scenario in which the Gaza War expands into a multi-front war surrounding Israel.

• Iran instructed the IRGC in eastern Syria to deploy militants to Quneitra Province on October 9.[26] The IRGC transferred 50 foreign fighters to Damascus on October 9 who are capable of using anti-aircraft missiles and rockets.

• An IRGC officer oversaw the deployment of Syrian Arab Army and IRGC deployments to the border strip with Israeli territory from Sayyida Zeinab which Iran uses as an operational headquarters.[28] The LH Radwan Unit, which is a special unit focused on infiltrating Israeli territory, arrived in Syria to spread out along the border with Israel as well.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-9-2023

Those hamas animals beheaded babies they are pure evil.

The coward Borrell should shut his fucking mouth!! The EU is part of the problem!

As of this morning, the death toll in Israel has risen to over 1,200 dead, and more than 2,700 additional wounded. And, unfortunately, as the days pass, I suspect those numbers will greatly increase as they sift through rubble and discover more victims.

This is Israel's 9/11. In fact, proportionately speaking in relation to their population compared to NYC, the horror perpetrated against them is even worse than what NYC/America suffered through.

Hamas, Hezbollah, and similar Middle Eastern organizations are nothing but terrorists. Plain and simple! They are pure, unadulterated evil and regardless of what bullshit propaganda they try and put out there to the world, there is NO justification for their unconscionable attacks on innocent people.

This is not one nation declaring war against another nation. (for as bad as that is, because war is always horrific under any circumstances.) This is a sick fanatical ideology, a twisted version of reality and religion, that these degenerates use to perpetrate and justify their devilish actions.
-
Politics aside, because no nation, whether is be the U.S.A., Israel, England, Japan, etc.,etc., etc., is perfect....all have made mistakes and implemented bad policies over the years, once again, THERE IS NO JUSTIFYING MASS SLAUGHTER as we have been witnessing over these last few days.

Innocent children and babies slaughtered, decapitated, women captured - raped - and then desecrated, old people being shot dead, innocents wantonly destroyed.

Who the fuck does that??? What type of degenerates could even consider such actions? These are not God fearing folks. They are fanatics.

Don't misunderstand me. Because aside from "soldiers" of war killings one another, which in and of itself is terrible. There is always so-called "collateral damage" with civilians getting in the way and also killed. It is an unfortunate reality of war. Any war!

But to intentionally go out of your way to target civilians and innocents from the start? That that was your goal as you planned this attack?
-
In my opinion, there is only one way to deal with these animals, these ungodly devils. You gotta go in 100% fully committed and completely knock them out of the box....quickly!

And since they claim they love Allah so much, and so many of them "claim" they want to go to him, so they can reap their heavenly reward of (how many young virgins is it?, LOL)...I say let's fucking accommodate them!

These sickies need to be dealt with one time. Once!...not pussyfooting back and forth as the Western world has done with them for so many decades. But ONE TIME!

And whoever is found to be backing these terrorists, regardless of whether its Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, or any other Middle Eastern nation, bang them out too.

Let them stick the threat of nuclear arms up their ass! They got em? We got more! If they wanna dance and fuck around, then lets take em out to the dance floor!

I liken it to Japan's so-called "Kamikaze pilots" during WWII. Where they would forsake their own lives to crash their planes into U.S. and Allied targets; ships, buildings, etc.

After all was said and done, the Emperor of Japan, waived the white flag and surrendered Japan to U.S. Forces on that battleship in full view of the world.

What happened tough guys? No more Kamikazes? You had enough? Its the same with these Middle Eastern suicide bombers and their entire lot. When push comes to shove, lets see how many of them are REALLY willing to die for the "cause."

Enough is enough already. It's time to take serious action.
-
PS: Its also reported that after slaughtering woman and children, these depraved animals actually took the cell phones of their victims, took photos of their massacred bodies, and then texted them to the victim's relatives phone numbers and contacts found on the phones. They are bad actors....

as far as we know one of the reasons why we don't go inside gaza yet is that there is info and heavy concern that hezbolla, syria, iran and more will attack too the minute we get inside there.
so while most of our soldiers are attacking there they will suprise us too and will try to conquer israel.

the biggest problem always is the size of our army
we are small in number (around 300-400K) it's not enough, and you cannot trust the air force in a war like that...

this is a huge problem due to small population in a our country

That is, indeed, a very serious concern. That all of this was a ruse to draw Israel's military strength away from its heart, in order to stage surprise attacks from multiple enemies.

Thats a very serious concern.

https://twitter.com/USAmbIsrael/status/1712078687968092420

we are being invaded now from syria too now !!!!!

The UN is also powerless Russia and China for example refused to condemn Hamas.

Bad stuff!

Very troubling times ahead and the global economy, already rattled by elevated inflation, is now facing another geopolitical crisis.

Hollander, these are scary days...and I fear there's more coming real soon....a lot more.

Seems Israel is now fighting several different enemies on several different fronts.

Israel planning 'something big', considering ground invasion of Gaza: Report
Updated: Oct 12, 2023, 06:42 PM IST


Israel's national security establishment and people have been demanding retribution for the brutal attacks carried out by Hamas militants over the weekend

According to a report published in Bloomsberg, Israeli troops are massing for a suspected ground invasion of Gaza. The country's national security establishment and public have been demanding retribution for the attacks carried out by the Hamas militants over the weekend, which took the lives of more than 1,300 Israelis.

However, it will be a complicated task for the Israeli army to carry out a ground invasion considering the dense population of Gaza, its complex underground network of tunnels and the threat that the Israelis, Americans and others have been facing as hostages.

"The problem is that it's basically house-to-house fighting once you get into Gaza. And so it could be a heavy price," said former US Defence Secretary and CIA Director Leon Panetta on Tuesday (Oct 10) while speaking on Bloomberg Television's "Balance of Power." "But on the other hand, I think it's very clear that Israel has made the decision that they have got to crush Hamas in Gaza," he added.

ALSO READ | US will always 'back' Israel, says Blinken to Netanyahu on solidarity visit

An invasion would lead to heavy casualties on the two sides and questions about whether Israel can plan an exit strategy for the conflict. This can also lead to ripple effects throughout the Middle East and endanger the fragile rapprochement of Israel with its Arab neighbours, increasing the risks of conflict turning into a broader regional war.

According to an official, an invasion may look like the 2004 battle for Fallujah in Iraq which also involves bloody street-to-street fighting.

Israel's severe response to Gaza
No announcement has been made by Israel about sending troops into Gaza, however, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that "what we will do to our enemies in the coming days will reverberate with them for generations."

As per the report, the developments taking place on the ground clearly suggest that something big is being planned by Israel. Tel Aviv has been bombarding Gaza from the land, air and sea. A base is being built by the military next to the Gaza Strip to accommodate tens of thousands of soldiers as columns of Israeli tanks continue moving towards the region. Already 300,000 reservists have been mobilised by the country.

WATCH | Israel-Palestine war: Gazans reel under indiscriminate air strikes, dwindling supplies


"Israel is going to respond very severely and aggressively and there will be more loss of life," said Richard Hecht, a spokesman for the Israeli military, while speaking to journalists on Tuesday (Oct 10).

The experts feel that there is a high possibility of a ground invasion by Israel because of the limitations of aerial warfare in Gaza. It is being said that the airstrikes will not be able to clear out the underground weapons stockpiles, tunnels, and smuggling routes that made the Hamas attack possible on Saturday.

(With inputs from agencies)

https://www.wionews.com/world/israe...ng-ground-invasion-of-gaza-report-645935

guys that things i saw the last couple of days is beyond anything that possible to imagine !
filthy pro palestinians and hamas supporter's are denying this + denying the babies killings
i saw it all in my eyes !
they are nazis !

My wife and I made a big contribution to Magen David Adom, Israel's equivalent of Red Cross. Praying that it helps to relieve the heart-breaking suffering in Israel.

thank you very much sir !
you are doing good in the world !

I feel for the Gazans they deserve a better life, but the Jews have been victims of pogroms for centuries they have to defend themselves Israel is their homeland.

Iran Update from the Institute for the Study of War


IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 12, 2023
Oct 12, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF











Iran Update, October 12, 2023

Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 3:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the war in Israel. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance.

Key Takeaways:

1. Hamas continued rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel but reduced the rate of these attacks.

2. Small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces increased slightly across the West Bank, as Palestinian militias try to stoke conflict there.

3. CTP-ISW recorded three rocket strikes into Israeli territory from Lebanon.
4. Unidentified Iranian officials implicitly threatened to direct proxy attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria if the United States re-freezes Iranian financial assets abroad.

5. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is conducting a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, possibly to coordinate politically with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance.

6. Iran is conducting a diplomatic campaign to unite Muslim countries against Israel.

Gaza Strip

Hamas continued rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel but reduced the rate of these attacks on October 13.[1] An IDF commander stated that Hamas is trying to conserve its rocket stockpile and prepare for a prolonged war.[2] Israel estimates that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have expended around 33 percent of their rocket arsenal since the war began on October 7.

Hamas appeared to reduce the rate of its infiltrations into Israeli territory as well. CTP-ISW recorded one small arms clash between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces along the border of the Gaza Strip on October 12—a decrease from the six clashes that ISW recorded across October 10 and 11.

Hamas spokesperson Abu Ubaida released a video statement on October 12 describing the planning and objectives of the al Aqsa Flood operation. Ubaida claimed that Hamas began planning the operation in 2022 and conducted extensive analysis of Israeli forces and the terrain throughout the planning process. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency recirculated reporting that the Palestinian resistance has prepared itself for a long-term battle, including offensive operations in Israeli territory.[6] Ubaida stated that the objective of the operation was to destroy the IDF Gaza Division and facilitate further attacks into southern Israel.[7] Hamas’ militant wing has continued attacks on Israeli territory as far north as the Haifa District and has called on Palestinian militants in the West Bank to mobilize.

West Bank

Small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces increased slightly across the West Bank on October 12, as Palestinian militias try to stoke conflict there.[8] Clashes occurred in around 21 locations.[9] Leaders from Hamas, PIJ, and the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade separately issued calls on October 11 and 12 urging individuals in the West Bank to mobilize and join the fight against Israel, highlighting their desire to expand the war geographically to the West Bank.[10] PIJ spokesperson Abu Hamza boasted that the West Bank has entered the fight and called for militants to increase the rate of attacks against Israeli forces.[11] Iranian state media recirculated these calls and celebrated the ongoing clashes.

Hamas has called for a surge in anti-Israel activity on Friday, October 13, which risks driving further clashes.[13] The West Bank-based Lions’ Den militia previously succeeded in mobilizing supporters to hold marchers and clash with Israeli forces on October 11, as CTP-ISW previously reported, suggesting that Hamas may see similar success.[14] It is furthermore common for public participation in marches and protests in the Middle East to increase on Fridays, as such activities often follow Friday prayers.

South Lebanon and the Golan Heights

CTP-ISW recorded three rocket strikes into Israeli territory from Lebanon on October 12.[15] This level of rocket fire is consistent with previous days’ levels of kinetic activity around Israel’s northern border.

The IDF conducted airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports on October 12, disrupting critical nodes through which Iran funnels military equipment and personnel into the Levant.[17] The IDF struck the airport runways. The Syrian Arab Army conducted a mortar strike into the Golan Heights after the attacks, possibly as symbolic retaliation.[18] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has long used commercial airliners affiliated with the Iranian regime for military transports to Syria throughout the civil war there.

A Mahan Air flight was en route from Tehran to Damascus around the time of the IDF airstrikes and then changed course back to Iran.[20] The United States has sanctioned Mahan Air for transporting military personnel and materiel on behalf of the IRGC Quds Force to Syria to support the Iranians' efforts to defend the Bashar al Assad regime and entrench the Iranian military influence around the Levant.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance

Unidentified Iranian officials implicitly threatened to direct proxy attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria if the United States re-freezes Iranian financial assets abroad. These Iranian officials told UK-based Amwaj Media that the August 2023 prisoner swap deal between the United States and Iran involved a broader understanding in which Iran would pause proxy attacks against US positions in exchange for the United States allowing the release of $6 billion worth of frozen Iranian financial assets in South Korean banks.[22] Western media reported similar details on this broader understanding at the time.[23] South Korea has gradually transferred that money to Qatari banks for Iran to access since the agreement was reached. Western media has reported that the United States and Qatar have reached an agreement to refreeze the Iranian financial assets in response to the Hamas ground and air attack into Israel.[24] CTP-ISW is updating its chart on Axis of Resistance red lines based on these reports.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is conducting a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, possibly to coordinate politically with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance. Abdollahian traveled to Baghdad and met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani and National Security Adviser Qassem al Araji on October 12.[25] Abdollahian stated that Israel cannot commit “war crimes” against Gaza civilians "without expecting a response” during his meeting with Araji.[26] Abdollahian additionally commented on the possibility of the opening of a new front against Israel during his meeting with Sudani, stating that “everything depends on [Israeli] actions in Gaza.”[27] Abdollahian will travel to Beirut and Damascus in the coming days. Abdollahian recently met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus on August 31.[28] Abdollahian also met with Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah, and Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Saleh al Arouri in Beirut on September 1.[29] Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati additionally held separate phone calls with Haniyeh and Nakhalah on October 11.[30] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei commonly uses Velayati as his personal envoy abroad and especially to members of the Axis of Resistance and Palestinian groups.

Iran is conducting a diplomatic campaign to unite Muslim countries against Israel. Senior Iranian officials conducted a flurry of phone calls to foreign leaders on October 11 and 12 to discuss the war in Israel. President Ebrahim Raisi held separate phone calls with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Syrian President Bashar al Assad.[32] The call with Mohammad bin Salman is particularly noteworthy given that it is the first call between them since Iran and Saudi Arabia normalized ties in March 2023. Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has held phone calls with his Emirati, Egyptian, Filipino, Hungarian, Iraqi, Omani, Qatari, Russian, and Turkish counterparts since October 7.[33] Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has held phone calls with his counterparts in Algeria, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Syria, Turkey, and the UAE.[34] Tehran has historically sought to rally Muslim countries against Israel and frame itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause. Iran conducted a similar diplomatic campaign to this end when tensions rose between Israel and the Palestinian militias in April 2023, which CTP previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-12-2023

HAMAS HORROR QUICKLY REVEALS THE BIGOTS WITHIN OUR MIDST

NYPost By Douglas Murray

Sometimes a flare goes up in the darkness and you can see where everyone is standing.
That has certainly been the case since the appalling massacres in Israel last Saturday.
The bodies of all the young festival-goers, pensioners and beheaded babies hadn’t even been found before people began making excuses for their murder.
And even praised the mass slaughter.
On Sunday, just 24 hours after the atrocities, Hamas terrorists were still killing Jews in Israel.
And radical extremists were gathering in Times Square to celebrate their actions.
I went over to Times Square to see that “Pro-Palestine” rally.
But it wasn’t “pro-Palestine.”
It was just pro-massacre.
One woman in a headscarf stood in front of the crowd proudly waving a home-made sign.
It read “Zionist nightmares” and then listed the date in 1973 when all of Israel’s neighbors tried to wipe it out, and then 10/07/23.
The date of last Saturday.
The date when Hamas terrorists machine-gunned young people and shot pensioners at bus-stops.
“Long live the Intifada” this hideous woman’s sign concluded, with a Palestinian flag.
And wow, was she pleased with herself, as she cheered and punched her fist in the air.
Israel had not made one military strike in retaliation at this point.
Like the rest of the crowd she was not there opposing Israeli retaliation.
She was there to celebrate.
“From the river to the sea” many of the more formal banners said.
Which is a Palestinian battle cry which means “Destroy Israel” (because if a Palestinian state ran “from the river [Jordan] to the sea” there would be no Israel).
Other banners said “Resistance Is Justified.”
Others added “By any means necessary.”
Really?
By any means?
Like beheading some 40 babies, in a single kibbutz alone.
The Times Square rally certainly seemed to think so.
While a small group of Jewish and pro-Israel counter-protestors gathered on the other side of the street, the Palestinian protestors taunted them.
They screamed at them and waved their murderous signs even more in their faces.
You have to take a moment to consider the implications of that.
Imagine if this had been done to any other group of people, other than Jews.
Remember back to 2015 when an evil young man called Dylann Roof walked into a church in South Carolina and started shooting black congregants?
It was one of the worst shootings in recent American history.
And condemned by everyone.
An unforgivable act.
But imagine if there was a group in the US so sick — so utterly depraved — that after that shooting they got together outside other black churches.
And waved flags and signs praising the shooter in front of black Americans.
Such people would be condemned by everyone.
It wouldn’t be difficult.
It really wouldn’t.
So why do so many people seem to find it so hard when the victims are Jews?
Ask Rep Rashida Tlaib, who was silent on Tuesday when asked by a Fox Business reporter if she had anything to say about Hamas beheading babies and burning children alive.
It isn’t a difficult one, that.
Or at least it shouldn’t be.
Rep Tlaib could have just said “I am against these things.”
But she couldn’t.
It took clear pressure from her party to subsequently issue a statement saying that she was anti baby-burning in general.
Her fellow “squad” member, Rep Ilhan Omar performed a related trick.
She was one of those radical leftists and sectarians who decided to get straight onto condemning Israel’s response, rather than the terrorism itself.
Perhaps Rep Omar finds the atrocities of last weekend a bit much.
But she doesn’t want to give Israel an inch.
So she sits out the first part of the conflict and comes in just in time to condemn any Israeli counter-move.
“Gaza doesn’t have shelters” she said, so “please pray for them.”
Perhaps somebody could tell Rep. Omar that Gaza certainly does have shelters.
But Hamas uses them to store their rockets and bombs in.
If it wanted to protect the citizens of Gaza, Hamas could have spent more time building bunkers for its citizens and less time digging tunnels to try to break into Israel and murder Jews.
Rep. Omar must know this.
Just as she must know what she is doing when — along with Reps. Tlaib and Cori Bush — she used the massacre of Israelis to again call for cutting off US aid to Israel.
Everywhere, across America, other people have also given away precisely where they stand.
Think of the BLM group in Chiacgo which sent out a tweet praising the sick terrorists who flew into the Israeli music festival on hang-gliders.
Who could have imagined that anyone involved with BLM could be pro-violence?
It’s the same with all those radical professors and students who have been hiding in plain sight.
They are suddenly lit up for all to see.
Consider Yale University Professor Zareena Grewal.
In the wake of the atrocities in Israel she tweeted out “Prayers for Palestinians. Israel is a murderous, genocidal settler state and Palestinians have every right to resist through armed struggle.”
Keep up with today's most important news
Stay up on the very latest with Evening Update.
Wow.
“Every right.”
Like burning whole families to death, intentionally?
That’s quite a right for anyone to have.
MSNBC’s Mehdi Hasan has spent the last week trying to talk about Israeli “war crimes” but hasn’t told his followers about his own radical views.
Such as his view — expressed in a mosque sermon many years ago — that all non-Muslims are like animals.
Within no hours of the atrocities the American left was full of similar grossness.
People like Ryna Workman, president of NYU’s student bar association.
Workman claims to be “non-binary.”
She also wrote this week that the terrorists of Hamas have “my unwavering and absolute solidarity.”
I, for one, doubt that the terrorists of Hamas would have much use for Ms. Workman’s “solidarity.”
Were she ever to visit Gaza she would probably not be welcomed.
Hamas kills Palestinians it suspects of being gay.
And they sent the past weekend raping women beside the bodies of their dead friends.
So this dim “non-binary” woman might find her solidarity is tested to the limits.
But as I say, a flare has gone up in the night sky.
And it reminds us that we have many people in this country who rejoice in the deepest darkness.

Three Jewish schools in Amsterdam are also closed today.

Rishi Sunak condemns 'disgusting' rise in antisemitic incidents
The UK prime minister has condemned a "disgusting rise" in antisemitism in the UK, in comments to journalists made during a visit to Sweden.

"There's been a quite frankly disgusting rise in antisemitic incidents over the past few days, that's not right," Sunak said.

"We will absolutely not tolerate people inciting hatred or violence or racist activity, intimidating or threatening behaviour will not be tolerated. It will be met with the full force of the law."

It comes as the Metropolitan Police said it had seen a "massive increase" in the number of hate crimes in London, with 105 anti-semitic incidents and 75 antisemitic offences being reported from 30 September to 13 October. This is a huge rise on the same period last year.

Three Jewish schools in north London were closed on Friday as a safety precaution.

Young Israelis queue to board a flight to Tel Aviv at the Jorge Chavez International Airport in Lima, Peru 10 October 2023.
‘I don’t really have any other choice’: Young Israelis around the world return home after Hamas attacks
Protests erupt across US college campuses after Hamas attacks
Opinion: I studied deadly pogroms as a history professor. Then I lost my daughter in one
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Hamas trained a mile from Israel's heavily fortified border

Updated: Today, 10:45Today, 09:48abroad _

It was a complete surprise attack and yet Hamas had been preparing for a long time. This is evident from various images showing how Hamas practices in a replica Israeli city.

According to a CNN analysis, the training camp was very close to the pedestrian crossing between Gaza and Israel, the place where Hamas was also able to enter Israel last weekend. Another video, taken just over a year ago, also shows Hamas militants conducting paraglider exercises. The same method that was applied on Saturday, October 7. Then Hamas also invaded Israel. According to CNN, Hamas is said to have trained for that attack in at least six places in Gaza.

Two of the sites, including the barren training camp seen in the two-year-old video, were about a mile from the most fortified and patrolled part of the Gaza-Israel border. Of the remaining locations, one is in central Gaza and three others are in the far south of Gaza.

According to CNN, satellite images show that no offensive Israeli military action was taken against any of the six identified locations. According to the satellite images, some areas have been converted from agricultural land to a barren area for training in the past two years.

There were already many questions surrounding Israel's intelligence services and how the country with the most ingenious military equipment could miss such an attack. That Hamas could train so openly, in full view of Israel, raises even more questions.

When CNN asked the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment, international spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus that the findings were “nothing new.” He added that Hamas “had many training areas” and that the Israeli army had “hit many training areas over the years in the various rounds of escalation.”

Conricus also said that Hamas made the facilities look “civilian.” According to CNN, five of the locations - the sixth is an airstrip - have no civilian characteristics. They are all surrounded by huge earthen berms, which are taller than the buildings in the camps. The buildings - most of them without a roof - are almost all made of concrete blocks and cement. Some camps have gates and fences, while others have curbs but no paved roads.

In three of the training camps they even recreated Israeli tanks consisting of what looks like a large shell around a truck. Fighters practice an attack on it with RPGs and other explosives.

Ali Baraka, the head of the Lebanon-based Hamas National Relations Abroad, told RT Arabic after Saturday's attack that the terror organization had been planning the attack for two years.

https://twitter.com/TheMossadIL/status/1712834788116050411?t=JnXjDwfiZ3FTYesD9cvEjQ&s=19

Hezbollah: completely ready for war with Israel
Modified: Yesterday, 11:03 PMYesterday, 11:01 PMabroad _

BEIRUT - Calls from other countries and international organizations will not stop Hezbollah from joining the battle between Israel and Hamas. The second man Naim Qassem said this from Lebanon.

“The conversations we are having behind the scenes with major powers, Arab countries and representatives of the United Nations who are directly and indirectly telling us to stay out of this will have no effect,” said Qassem. “Hezbollah knows its duties well. We are prepared and ready, completely ready.”

Since violence between Israel and Hamas flared up last week, there have also been several clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli armed forces at the border. Yet the organization is not yet fully participating in the fight. “We will make our own plans with our contribution to this confrontation,” Qassem said at a protest meeting with hundreds of attendees.

Samidoun justifies atrocities: club banned in Germany strongly supports Hamas
Hezbollah's top boss, Hassan Nasrallah, has discussed the war between Hamas and Israel with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian. The minister has announced that Iranian allies will ensure that Israel suffers the consequences of the "crimes" against the Palestinians. Hezbollah is perhaps even more feared in Israel than Hamas, because the terrorist movement is said to have thousands of missiles ready with the help of Iran.

they have radwan force
i still don't know if they will send me to fight them in lebanon or stay here in the border of gaza...
i'll know in the next days i guess

If Hezbollah joins they know Israel will destroy Lebanon, don't forget Israel has also nuclear weapons, but it has not acknowledged its nuclear forces.

The Mossad is also very capable to assassinate enemies around the world even deep inside Iran.

israel will never use nuclear weapon.
china and russia will use it the next second too and we have ww3

but if hezbollah will attack then yes lebanon will be in a huge problem.
but if iran will attack then israel will be in a huge problem...

scary days ahead...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvvBnEdWazU

the problem israel is worried is not their forces but rather more is the missiles, which they have around 150K according to our intelligence
this could destory israel because we are small country and iron dome is not 100%.

so the air force will have to act fast and bombed most of lebanon in couple of days or else we are screwed

Gaza war puts Arab governments in an uncomfortable position.The military operation in Gaza and the increasing number of Palestinian civilian deaths are testing pro-Western governments in Israel's neighboring countries.

Two fronts will be bad and Hamas wants Israel to infiltrate Gaza to fight Israel has the best tanks in the world but it will be an operation for many months.

I'd just continue to pound Gaza with bombs and artillery from above, and eventually destroy many of those tunnels with so-called "Bunker Busters" --- way before I'd send even one foot soldier in there.

If they're hiding in buildings or even subterranean tunnels, many will be killed this way, and many of those who survive the bombs will die anyway through suffocation because the remaining tunnels will collapse or seal entrances/exits.

Then go in when Gaza is literally reduced to rubble...

It'll be much safer that way for the Israeli soldiers.

iran are threatening to join in too
this could be a huge problem for us.... huge problem.../

it's gonna be all of the arab muslim world israel
although we already won couple of times in the past and fucked them all
it's a different story today...

I hope the US gets new leadership and we join in with you in Israel and defeat the Evil forces that hate us both.

Don’t worry Brother, Evil will be defeated.

Hamas transformed itself into an effective guerrilla fighting force and got the better of one of the world's strongest armies.

Hamas is not alone: ??who are their allies? And how do other major players in the region respond?
Political parties Fatah, led by Mahmoud Abbas (left), and Hezbollah also play a dubious role in the explosive region.

The radical Palestinian Islamic group Hamas wants to trigger a chain reaction with the large-scale surprise attack, with other parties joining in, such as Fatah or Hezbollah. Other parties play more of a role behind the scenes. Who are the main players? And what can we expect from them?

Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 1:38 PM

FATAH
? What is their relationship with Hamas? The political movement, literally 'the liberation army of Palestine', was founded in 1959 by Yasser Arafat, among others. The organization has long been at odds with Hamas because the latter wants a strict Islamic state and Fatah strives for a free and socialist Palestine. But in 2017 they decided to work together.

? What role do they play in the region? Mahmoud Abbas (87) has been president of the Palestinian Authority - the administration of the Palestinian territories - since 2005, a position that has been disputed since 2009. In that position, he and his Fatah party also control the Gaza Strip.

? What is their military strength? The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade – which is said to be directly related to Fatah (although the latter denies this) – is responsible for suicide bombings, armed robberies and shooting incidents in Israel. The group is regarded as a terrorist organization by Europe, the US and Israel.

ISLAMIC JIHAD
? What is their relationship with Hamas? Islamic Jihad is a radical Palestinian Islamic resistance organization, which is mainly active in the Gaza Strip and is closely affiliated with Hamas. Compared to Hamas, the movement has much closer ties with the Iranian regime. On Saturday, the group immediately joined Hamas' surprise attack on Israel.

? What role do they play in the region? Like the military branch of Hamas, Islamic Jihad is known for extreme violence against Israel, ranging from suicide bombings to bomb and rocket attacks. It would also regularly engage minors for this purpose.

? What is their military strength? According to Western intelligence services, the organization has about 1,000 members.


HEZBOLLAH
? What is their relationship with Hamas? Hezbollah is a political party in Lebanon, which borders Israel, that fights against the Jewish state. The organization openly supports the Palestinian groups Hamas and Fatah and considers Israel its arch enemy. In response to Hamas's invasion of Israel, Hezbollah militias fired several rockets into Israel this weekend. The group is threatening many more attacks if the Israeli army launches a ground offensive against Hamas.

? What role do they play in the region? In Lebanon it is a political party, outside of it Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by many Western countries. The organization also intervened in the Syrian conflict on the side of the Syrian government.

? What is their military strength? Observers estimate that Hezbollah has about 4,000 troops. But perhaps even more importantly: according to security experts, the war in Syria left a lot of modern equipment, including very sophisticated drones.

EGYPT
? What is their relationship with Hamas? In the far south, the Gaza Strip – where Hamas has power – borders Egypt. For a long time, fighters and weapons were smuggled in or out via this border, and especially a huge tunnel network under it, which was tolerated by the then pro-Hamas Egyptian government. Until Egypt, with a new government in charge, closed most of the tunnels about ten years ago.

? What role do they play in the region? Egypt mainly wants to prevent violence from spreading to its own country, such as several Jewish tourists who were murdered this weekend in the Egyptian city of Alexandria. This weekend it called on both Israel and Hamas to exercise the utmost restraint. Egypt regularly tries to hold talks to end the unrest between Israel and the Palestinians.

? What is their military strength? The Egyptian armed forces number about 450,000 soldiers. However, it is impossible that the Egyptian government would intervene militarily in any way.


SAUDI ARABIA
? What is their relationship with Hamas? Hamas and Saudi Arabia are at odds, given the close contacts between Hamas and Iran, an arch-enemy of Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, Hamas leaders recently visited the Saudi kingdom, presumably to learn about Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with Israel.

? What role do they play in the region? Wealthy Saudi Arabia has long been one of the main backers of the Palestinian Authority, which is mainly in charge of the West Bank. But through American mediation, rapprochement attempts are underway between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman previously told Fox News: “Every day we get closer to a normalized relationship with Israel.” But that rapprochement is in danger of being seriously disrupted by the events of this weekend.

? What is their military strength? Saudi Arabia has a very modern and well-equipped army, given the tensions with Iran. However, it is impossible that Saudi Arabia would intervene militarily in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

IRAN
? What is their relationship with Hamas? Iran has been Israel's absolute archenemy for years. The country therefore openly supports the actions of Hamas, although the Iranians themselves claim to have had nothing to do with it. However, experts agree that Iran at least helped plan the attack and probably also supplied material.

? What role do they play in the region? It is sometimes said that if there is trouble in Iran, there will be trouble in the rest of the Middle East. Iran is a political heavyweight that has been trying to control the region for years. In this context, the country often clashes with Western powers and with Saudi Arabia, the other major country in the Middle East. Iran therefore has every advantage in thwarting the recent rapprochement between Israel and the Saudis.

? What is their military strength? In the annual ranking of the strongest armies in the world, compiled by the website Global Firepower, Iran currently ranks 17th. One place above Israel. This makes it the largest military power in the Middle East.

SYRIA
? What is their relationship with Hamas? Syria and Hamas were allies for years until Hamas suddenly supported the street protests against the government of Syrian President Assad in 2012. After more than ten years of silence, it was announced last year that Hamas has restored ties with Syria. The Syrian Foreign Ministry called last weekend's attack "an honorable action" against "Zionist terrorism."

? What role do they play in the region? The Arab Spring has transformed Syria into a turbulent country, but Syria still plays a crucial role in the geopolitical balance of power in the Middle East. It owes this to its military power, but also to its geographical location between Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. Historically, the country has been one of Israel's most ardent opponents and a staunch ally of Iran.

? What is their military strength? Syria is ranked 64th among the strongest armies in the world. Their total number of military personnel is estimated at 150,000.

https://youtu.be/pefEIwoTEnE?si=shDxbSe8X8Wz-Nh2

Def the Western World will never be defeated !

I'm far from a military expert, but the Israelis are smart people Israel's Sayeret Matkal is one of the world's most elite units.

biggest terror attack (consider the israeli population) it's insane !

indeed we are strong and maybe even more war experience and tougher then the random american and russian men, moroccan jews (like me) are tough people. (american jews are different entirely from us the israeli one's)
but we lack in numbers that's the problem...

We also have to keep eyes on Urkaine war. Odesa has been home to one of the largest population of Jews in what is today Ukraine.
Zelensky is a Jew.

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 14, 2023
Oct 14, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF








Iran Update, October 14, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 3:00 pm EDT

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


Key Takeaways:

1. Hamas continued its ground and rocket attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel. Palestinian militants are continuing limited attempts to infiltrate southern Israel via land and sea.
2. Clashes in the West Bank between Israeli forces and Palestinian militias decreased after peaking on October 13. Hamas remains committed to expanding the war to the West Bank, however.
3. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed attacks on the IDF for the second consecutive day as part of its ongoing harassment of Israeli forces. LH messaging indicates that the group will conduct additional attacks against Israeli forces in the coming days.
4. Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance are messaging that the Hamas-Israel war could expand geographically into a multi-front conflict. CTP-ISW is closely monitoring the situation to forecast whether such a scenario is becoming more or less likely.
5. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abdollahian traveled to Qatar, likely to meet with Hamas leadership and discuss Iranian financial assets with Qatari officials.


[u]Gaza Strip[/u]

Hamas continued its ground and rocket attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel, on October 14 The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for conducting rocket attacks on 12 locations, including Tel Aviv.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for launching rockets on seven locations in southern Israel.[2] Hamas has reduced its rate of rocket fire into Israeli territory since October 12 to conserve its stockpile and prepare for a prolonged war.[3]

Palestinian militants are continuing limited attempts to infiltrate southern Israel via land and sea. Militants engaged in small arms clashes with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at least four times in Israeli territory surrounding the Gaza Strip on October 14. These militants used an anti-tank missile in one of these instances.[4] The IDF Navy separately interdicted speedboats trying to enter Israeli territory.[5] Hamas previously used speedboats to launch its assault into Israeli territory on October 7.

Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) are messaging that Hamas is prepared to defend the Gaza Strip effectively against the IDF. Hamas published messages on October 14 boasting about its anti-armor capabilities and defensive preparations.[7] LH-affiliated al Mayadeen similarly published remarks from an unspecified Palestinian militant stating that Palestinian militias have a comprehensive defense plan for the Gaza Strip.[8] The militant also stated that the militias have enough manpower and weapons to fight the IDF for months in the Gaza Strip. Below are some of the factors that Hamas could exploit in fighting the IDF in the Gaza Strip.

• Hamas maintains around 480 kilometers of tunnels under the strip.[9] The Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote that “Hamas has had 15 years to prepare a dense ‘defense in depth’ that integrates subterranean, ground-level, and aboveground fortifications.”[10] Hamas could use these tunnels to quickly maneuver around the battlespace and facilitate the movement of fighters and weapons.

• Hamas has manufactured and used Iranian-designed explosively formed penetrators (EFP) in the Gaza Strip since 2007.[11] Hamas could use EFPs to constrain the movement of the IDF in the urban environment and threaten Israeli troops. Iran exported EFPs to its proxy and partner militias in Iraq as late as 2004, which these militias then used extensively in their attacks on US servicemembers in Iraq.
• Hamas took around 150-200 individuals hostage during its initial attack into Israeli territory on October 7.[13] The al Qassem Brigades spokesperson has threatened to execute hostages in response to Israeli attacks, although CTP-ISW has not yet recorded any such executions.[14] CTP-ISW previously reported on how Hamas uses civilians as human shields, intentionally putting them in danger to protect Hamas’ military infrastructure and weapons.

[u]West Bank[/u]

Clashes in the West Bank between Israeli forces and Palestinian militias decreased on October 14 after peaking the previous day. CTP-ISW recorded 13 small arms clashes across the West Bank on October 14—significantly less than the 32 clashes recorded on October 13. Israeli forces are conducting arrest campaigns in the West Bank, which may be contributing to the reduced violence.

Hamas remains committed to expanding the war to the West Bank, however. Hamas has repeatedly called for Palestinians to mobilize and escalate against Israeli forces in the West Bank in recent days.[16] Hamas released a statement on October 14 calling for the establishment of “popular protection committees” in all cities and towns of the West Bank to target Israeli settlers.[17] Hamas stated that it is the duty of all Palestinians to actively participate in the war against Israel.

[u]Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights[/u]

LH claimed attacks on the IDF for the second consecutive day on October 14 as part of its ongoing harassment of Israeli forces. LH claimed to have conducted missile and rocket attacks against five IDF positions in the Shebaa Farms.[18] The IDF furthermore conducted a drone strike on the border targeting a group of militants preparing to fire an anti-tank missile toward Israel.[19] Former IDF Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Tamir Tayman stated that LH is conducting attacks against Israel to reduce IDF pressure on Hamas.

LH messaging indicates that the group will conduct additional attacks against Israeli forces in the coming days. LH released separate statements on October 14 emphasizing that Israeli attacks against Lebanese security will not go unanswered and that LH has given permission to its members to fight Israel.

Israeli, Lebanese, and UN officials have warned in recent days that the Hamas-Israel war could expand to Lebanon. Hayman stated that LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is putting Lebanon at serious risk by continuing to conduct attacks against Israeli forces.[22] Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has similarly warned that LH may enter the war against Israel.[23] Finally, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that IDF airstrikes along the Israel-Lebanon border risk spreading fighting into Lebanon.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance are messaging that the Hamas-Israel war could expand geographically into a multi-front conflict. CTP-ISW is closely monitoring the situation to forecast whether such a scenario is becoming more or less likely.

• Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned that the Axis of Resistance has its “hands on the trigger” and will respond to Israel “at an appropriate time” if the United Nations does not stop IDF attacks into the Gaza Strip.[25] Abdollahian made these comments during a press conference in Beirut on October 14. Abdollahian similarly called on the United Nations to stop IDF attacks before it is “too late” during a meeting with UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland in Beirut on October 14.

• Iranian-backed Iraqi militants have broadcast their presence in Lebanon in recent days. Fighters from Asaib Ahl al Haq announced on October 8 that they are joining the war against Israel.[27] Abu Azrael—an Iranian-backed Iraqi fighter with a prominent social media presence—later claimed on October 12 that he is near the Israel-Lebanon border and waiting for “any opportunity” to enter Israel.[28] A Syrian journalist on October 13 claimed that elements of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces have entered Lebanon via Syria.

• The IRGC and LH deployed forces to the southwestern Syrian border on October 13, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[30] The IRGC transferred elements of its engineering units from Albu Kamal to the Golan Heights. LH similarly redeployed militants from Mayadin to Damascus as part of an effort to transfer LH members throughout Syria to the southwestern border.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian traveled to Qatar on October 14, likely to meet with Hamas leadership and discuss Iranian financial assets with Qatari officials.

• Senior Hamas officials, including its Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, are based in Qatar.[31] Abdollahian is concluded a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria before traveling to Qatar. CTP-ISW assessed that the tour was part of an Iranian effort to coordinate politically with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance.

• Western media reported on October 12 that the United States and Qatar have agreed to prevent Iran from accessing $6 billion of financial assets in Qatari banks.[33] South Korea transferred the assets to Qatari banks for Iran to access as part of the prisoner swap agreement that the United States and Iran reached in August 2023.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-14-2023

Islamic–Jewish relations refers to the human and diplomatic relations between Jewish people and Muslims in the Arabian Peninsula, Northern Africa, the Middle East, and their surrounding regions. Jewish-Islamic relations may also refer to the shared and disputed ideals between Judaism and Islam, which began roughly in the 7th century CE with the origin and spread of Islam in the Arabian peninsula. The two religions share similar values, guidelines, and principles.[1] Islam also incorporates Jewish history as a part of its own. Muslims regard the Children of Israel as an important religious concept in Islam. Moses, the most important prophet of Judaism, is also considered a prophet and messenger in Islam.[2] Moses is mentioned in the Quran more than any other individual, and his life is narrated and recounted more than that of any other prophet.[3] There are approximately 43 references to the Israelites in the Quran (excluding individual prophets),[4] and many in the Hadith. Later rabbinic authorities and Jewish scholars such as Maimonides discussed the relationship between Islam and Jewish law. Maimonides himself, it has been argued, was influenced by Islamic legal thought.[5]

Because Islam and Judaism share a common origin in the Middle East through Abraham, both are considered Abrahamic religions. There are many shared aspects between Judaism and Islam; Islam was strongly influenced by Judaism in its fundamental religious outlook, structure, jurisprudence and practice.[1] Because of this similarity, as well as through the influence of Islamic culture and philosophy on the Jewish populations in the Muslim world, there has been considerable and continued physical, theological, and political overlap between the two faiths in the subsequent 1,400 years.

well i recived a info that iranian revolutionary forces are already doing their way to the syria - lebanon border near israel.
this is going to be a WAR !

Editorial team — 15 October 2023

Iran, the shadow of Israel behind the ambush on Mohammed Akiki, officer 007: he is serious injured in hospital
Ambush in Iran against a senior intelligence officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This is Mohammed Akiki wounded by gunfire in Tehran and hospitalized in serious condition. This was reported by the Bnn Network website according to which the agent is now in critical condition in the intensive care unit, following the serious injuries sustained during the attack.

No further details are known at the moment but, according to an initial reconstruction by experts and analysts, the Israeli secret services were behind the ambush on Akiki in response to the attacks suffered by Hamas on 7 October. But, of course, there is and probably will not be any official confirmation.

a friend from school died from an anti tank rocket by hezbollah
i'm so sad almost crying

I'm sorry your friend was killed, Meyer--another brutal and senseless death from this Axis of Evil.

No one ever holds the Palestinians responsible for the woes they bring on themselves through their self-destructive choices of leadership. Gaza is the worst example:

Israel handed Gaza over to the Palestinian Authority. in 2006, and removed 9,000 Jewish settlers. Within days, the Palestinians held a free election--they ousted the Palestinian Authority and voted in Hamas, because Hamas, in its charter, pledges to destroy Israel. Hamas immediately fired ~7,000 rockets at Israel, dug tunnels to mount lethal raids on civilians, and terrorized their own population. They fired rockets and stored arms in mosques, schools and hospitals, daring Israel to attack them. Did the Palestinians who voted them in and cheered them on believe that Israel wouldn't protect its own citizens--and that ordinary Palestinians would bear the brunt of Israel's retaliatory attacks?

The only use Hamas has for their own people is as dead martyrs, so they can blitz the world's media with videos and photos of wailing, black-clad women surrounded by rubble. Even now, they're ordering their people not to leave the war zone for safety--they want more death and destruction to blame on Israel.

Because the militants don't really want to see the war and violence to end. If anything, they wanna ramp it up and create more tension through the years. It fits their demented narrative and ultimate game plan, to destroy Israel. And they hate when they see olive branches being extended to Israel by fellow muslim countries.

as i've said it's not about israel and land and or nessecirly jewish people (well they do have a lot of hate towards jewish)
but it's more about them wanting to conquer the world.

https://twitter.com/RadioGenoa/status/1713990902086025623
an attack in belguim couple of minutes ago

Well said Turnbull also remember in the power struggle with the secular FATAH/PLO Hamas even threw their rivals from buildings. Let's hope the Palestinians never vote for Hamas again.

Their biggest enemy is the United States.

yeah i still remember how these animals were celebrated the 9/11 terror attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqZBy09vCVk
fuck them ! cruel evil monsters !

Swedish football fans killed in terror attack in Brussels

Two people were killed in a shooting in the center of Brussels, police report. According to Belgian media, the victims wore T-shirts of the Swedish football team, which will play against Belgium in Brussels on Monday evening. That match has now been stopped. The terror level has been raised to four, the highest level.

According to Het Nieuwsblad, the suspect shared a video on Facebook in which he said in Arabic that he had killed "three infidels". At this moment there are two dead, the third victim is still alive. The man says in the video that he is a member of the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group. “Whether people like it or not, we live and die for our faith,” the video says. “I gladly approach God, if I have wronged someone, He will forgive me.” The circumstances of the shooting are not yet clear.

peaceful religion

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 16, 2023
Oct 16, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF









Iran Update, October 16, 2023

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways

1. Palestinian militias continued drone and indirect fire attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel, on October 16. The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants dropped slightly on October 16 after peaking on October 13.
2. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned on October 15 and 16 that a multi-front war against Israel is becoming more likely and that Iranian-backed militias may take preemptive actions against Israel in the “coming hours.”
3. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is trying to improve its operational security in eastern Syria likely as part of an effort to move advanced military systems into Syria and Lebanon. 250-500 Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces arrived in Syria and Lebanon on October 16.

Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel, on October 16. Hamas’ militant wing, the al Qassem Brigades, claimed responsibility for 18 mortar and rocket attacks.[1] Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) militant wing, Saraya al Quds, claimed responsibility for another six mortar and rocket attacks.[2] The militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the National Resistance Brigades, claimed two mortar attacks into Israel from Gaza.[3] CTP-ISW recorded 10 unclaimed mortar and rocket strikes as well.[4]

CTP-ISW did not record any reports of infiltrations or small arms clashes in southern Israel on October 16.

West Bank

The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants dropped slightly on October 16 after peaking on October 13. CTP-ISW recorded nine clashes and four marches in the West Bank compared to 32 clashes recorded on October 13.[5] Israeli forces arrested 20 individuals affiliated with Hamas in the West Bank and seized various small arms and ammunition.[6] CTP-ISW previously suggested that arrest campaigns in the West Bank may be contributing to the declining violence.[7] Hamas remains committed to expanding the war to the West Bank, however.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed six attacks on Israeli positions in Northern Israel on October 16 and fired an anti-tank missile at an Israeli tank.[8] CTP-ISW recorded one mortar attack into Israeli territory from Lebanon, a decrease compared to seven recorded on October 15.[9] The IDF said that there were multiple small arms clashes on Israel’s northern border.[10] CTP-ISW also recorded one small arms clash between LH and Israeli security forces across Israel’s northern border on October 16.[11] LH released a video on October 16 showing LH militants shooting at Israeli surveillance equipment on the Lebanese border.[12] LH members were seen shooting at Israeli Army radio towers and cameras at outposts along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Israel’s National Emergency Authority (NAE), which falls under the Israeli Ministry of Defense, evacuated Israeli citizens from 28 towns on the Israel-Lebanon border to create a two-kilometer buffer zone.[13] Lebanese Hezbollah steadily increased its activity along the Israeli border between October 7 and 15.[14] CTP-ISW has also reported several unconfirmed reports of militia infiltrations into northern Israel.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned on October 15 and 16 that a multi-front war against Israel is becoming more likely and that Iranian-backed militias may take preemptive actions against Israel in the “coming hours.” Abdollahian stated in an interview with Al Jazeera on October 15 that Israel’s continued siege of Gaza is making a multi-front war “increasingly more probable.”[16] Abdollahian similarly posted on X (Twitter) on October 16 that “the time for political solutions is coming to an end” and that the expansion of the Israel-Hamas war to new fronts is becoming “inevitable.”[17] Abdollahian also warned on October 16 that resistance groups may take “preemptive measures” against Israel in the “coming hours.”[18] Iranian state media recirculated Abdollahian’s warning in English, indicating that their intended audience is the United States and Israel. [19] CTP-ISW will continue to closely monitor the Israel-Hamas war to forecast whether a multi-front war is becoming more or less likely.

• The Iranian regime continues to signal its unwillingness to enter a direct conflict with Israel. Iran’s Mission to the United Nations emphasized that Iran will not intervene in the Israel-Hamas war if Israel refrains from attacking Iranian territory, interests, and nationals in a statement on October 15.[20] CTP-ISW previously reported that Iran has articulated its red line for directly intervening in the Israel-Hamas war as an Israeli attack on Iran.[21]
•Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance are preparing for the Hamas-Israel war to expand into a regional conflict. Iranian-backed militants have deployed to southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria.[22] These militants include Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces units, and the Afghan Fatemiyoun and Pakistani Zeynabiyoun divisions. The IDF has conducted airstrikes on Damascus and Aleppo international airports to disrupt Iranian military shipments to Syria and Lebanon.

Iran would likely provide material and financial support to its proxies to fight Israel rather than get directly involved in the Israel-Hamas war were this war to expand into a regional conflict. Direct Iranian involvement would lead to escalation with Israel, which Iran seeks to avoid. Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani warned Israel against attacking Iran on October 9, threatening a “devastating response” to any attack.[23] Iran has historically used its proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen to advance its regional objectives—such as expelling the United States from the Middle East—while retaining a degree of plausible deniability.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is trying to improve its operational security in eastern Syria likely as part of an effort to move advanced military systems into Syria and Lebanon. Iran typically takes steps to reinforce operational security along its ground lines of communication in Syria to protect military shipments from Israeli airstrikes.[25] Israel has conducted airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports in recent days, which Israeli media and officials have indicated is meant to disrupt the transfer of Iranian military systems to Syria and Lebanon. CTP-ISW is monitoring Iran positioning its proxies in the Levant to support the Palestinian militias fighting against Israel.

•The IRGC commander of eastern Syria prohibited cellphones at IRGC headquarters in Deir ez Zor city in one of several security measures to protect infrastructure and foreign fighters against airstrikes, according to local media.[26] The IRGC attempted to disguise its activity in eastern Syria by providing personnel with civilian cars and rebranding facilities as Syrian Arab Army positions.[27] CTP-ISW previously noted that the IRGC and LH deployments to Deir ez Zor indicated the militias have struggled to preserve operational security as they expand operations in Syria.[28]
•Israel conducted multiple airstrikes on Damascus and Aleppo international airports on October 12 and 14 which disrupts critical aerial nodes through which Iran funnels military equipment and personnel into the Levant.[29] Iran transfers weapons through these airports, as was the case in February 2023 when it sent air defense equipment to Aleppo along with earthquake relief shipments.[30]
• A senior official at the Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry indicated that the air strikes in Syria are part of an Israeli effort to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.[31] Israeli media reported on October 16 that Israel detects an intensive Iranian effort to transfer advanced weapons to LH in Lebanon.

An Iraqi-based open-source intelligence account claimed on October 16 that 250-500 Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces arrived in Syria and Lebanon. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s tracking of Iranian-backed foreign fighters deploying to border areas with Israel.[33] Iranian-backed militants have deployed to the southwestern Syrian border since the war began on October 7.[34] These militants also include members of the Afghan Fatemiyoun Division and Pakistani Zeynabiyoun Division, according to Israeli media.[35] IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani was in Syria coordinating some of these deployments as of October 15, according to an Iran-based journalist.[36] LH similarly redeployed militants from Mayadin to Damascus as part of an effort to transfer LH members throughout Syria to the southwestern border.

Iran has pursued greater coordination with Palestinian groups during the past year. Iranian officials, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Palestinian militant groups held meetings, visits, and calls in the year leading up to Hamas’s October 7 attack. The coordination included Iran providing explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), which militants in the West Bank used in attacks against the IDF. This is consistent with comments from the PIJ leader in Lebanon, Ihsan Ataya, who acknowledged as recently as September 28 that Iran supports PIJ with money, weapons, and “everything it needs to confront Israel.”[38] The coordination also occurred after Hamas began planning its October 7 attack on Israel. The group’s spokesperson claimed the group began planning its attack in 2022.[39] The graphic below demonstrates this coordination with senior Iranian political and strategic leadership, as well as Hamas and PIJ military developments.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-16-2023

Iran's top leader accuses Israel of genocide

17-10-2023 13:31 | Abroad | author ANP/RTR/AFP
TEHRAN - Iran's spiritual leader Ali Khamenei accuses Israel of "genocide" against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Grand Ayatollah demands that bombings in that densely populated area be stopped immediately.

Khamenei said in Tehran that "no one can stop the Muslims and resistance forces" if "the Zionist regime's crimes continue." Audience members in the audience chanted “death to Israel.”

Iran has repeatedly used threatening language. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian spoke about a possible "preemptive strike" after consultations with Hezbollah. He said the "resistance leaders" will not allow "Israel to act as it sees fit in Gaza."

Shockwave

A senior commander of the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian regime's shock troops, also issued a warning on Tuesday. According to state media, Ali Fadavi promised Israel a "shock wave" if the "atrocities" in Gaza do not stop.

There is international fear that other countries will increasingly become involved in the war between Israel and Hamas. That group carried out a bloody surprise attack on Israel on October 7, which responded with air strikes on the Gaza Strip.

Iran has powerful allies in the region, such as the Shia Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. It has repeatedly targeted Israel in recent days. Iranian authorities also support Hamas, but say they were not involved in the attack on Israel.

200-300 dead after air strike at Gaza Hospital, gunfire in Ramallah as protesters clash with PLO security forces. They are also blaming Mahmoud Abbas President of the Palestinian Authority.

Hamas probably was storing rockets and ammo in that hospital, as they always do.

Yes it is also suggested that something went wrong at that place that is was hamas own rocket which caused the explosions.

Hamas is trying to derail Biden's visit to the region. It's being said here in in the US that, after Israel destroys Hamas, it will turn Gaza over to the Palestinian Authority. Biden was scheduled to meet with Abbas, but this incident "forced "Abbas to cancel the meeting.

The Israeli military says it had no involvement in an explosion that killed hundreds of people at a Gaza City hospital and that the blast was caused by a misfired Palestinian rocket.

The King of Jordan also canceled the meeting with Biden very bad, they should talk.

They both refused any and all refugees, they do not want the animals who only want to spread their twisted views.
That says a lot.

Whats the status with Israel's "ground assault"? has it started at all yet? I don't see anything

The more than 200 hostages are first priority.The special forces are on the ground in Gaza, The British SAS is reportedly working with Israel's elite Sayeret Matkal force and the US Delta Force.

US assesses that Israel is ‘not responsible’ for Gaza hospital blast
Officials told CNN separately that the initial evidence gathered by the US intelligence community suggests that the hospital strike came from a rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
British officials in public and private on Wednesday have not yet gone as far as the US. One official said it’s “not conclusive, but the Israeli assertion is not unfounded.”
“We’re not quite there yet,” another official said. “Not because we dispute what they’ve seen. We’re still at ‘Let’s look at all the facts.’”
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Wednesday that British intelligence services were working “rapidly” to establish the facts behind the deadly blast.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/18/politics/us-intel-gaza-hospital-blast/index.html

Since the murder of Sadat Egypt's military leaders also want no resurrection of Muslim Brotherhood of which Hamas is an offshoot.
The PIJ also.

The Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is a Sunni Islamist militant group seeking to establish an Islamist Palestinian state that is committed to the destruction of Israel. It is the second-largest militant group in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, founded in 1979 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The group has drawn inspiration from the Iranian revolution and receives support from Iran, Syria, and Lebanese Hizballah.

It will be the end of Netanyahu.

Israeli anger at Netanyahu erupts at hospital bedsides

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/israeli-anger-at-netanyahu-erupts-at-hospital-bedsides.html

Many protests turned ugly in Europe, remember France was in the early years one of Israel's biggest supporters, later the US.

ISRAEL–HAMAS WAR (IRAN UPDATES)
Oct 17, 2023 - ISW Press

This page collects the refocused Iran Updates that ISW began publishing on October 7, 2023. ISW and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) refocused the Iran Update to cover the Israel–Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance.


We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision making of the Iranian regime. ISW and CTP at the American Enterprise Institute provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.



Iran Update, October 17, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl

Key Takeaways

1. Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel on October 17, attacking civilian and military targets.
2. The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank remained low after peaking on October 13.
3. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called for mobilization in the West Bank following an explosion at a hospital in Gaza.
4. CTP-ISW recorded 10 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 17, including seven against military targets. LH activity on Israel’s northern border creates opportunities for further operations against Israel.
5. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated what other senior Iranian officials are saying about the Hamas-Israel war during a speech.
6. Senior IRGC commanders are framing Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel.

Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel on October 17. [/b ]The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 26 mortar and rocket attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another five rocket attacks.[2] The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—the militant wing of Fatah—claimed two mortar attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.[3] CTP-ISW recorded reports of five unclaimed mortar and rocket strikes as well. This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW observed on October 16.

CTP-ISW recorded one report of an infiltration from the Gaza Strip near Zikim on October 17.[4] An IDF helicopter killed two individuals on the beach.[5] CTP-ISW cannot independently confirm this report.

[b]Palestinian militias are hitting civilian and military targets in their indirect fire attacks. Hamas is continuing to target civilians throughout Israel from the Gaza Strip, including in Tel Aviv, Beersheba, and Haifa.[6] Hamas targeted Israeli forces with mortars and rockets near Sufa, Mufakim, Eshkol, and Kfar Azza in five separate attacks on October 17.[7] Palestinian militias are also continuing to target southern Israeli towns that the IDF has evacuated and designated as military zones. Ninety percent of Sderot’s civilians have departed the city, for instance, which Israel designated a militarized zone on October 16.[8] The IDF deployed units to this area in recent days, suggesting that the militias seek to target IDF military assets in addition to civilians.

IDF airstrikes into the Gaza Strip have killed several senior Hamas officials since the war began on October 7. Three senior IDF officers told the New York Times that the goal of Israeli operations is to “wipe out the top political and military hierarchy of Hamas.”[10] Multiple separate IDF airstrikes into the Gaza Strip killed Hamas’ Shura Council chief, the al Qassem Brigades Central Brigade commander, and at least two relatives of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh on October 17.[11] Israel has conducted at least 10 airstrikes against senior Hamas, PIJ, and other militia officials since October 8.

West Bank

The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank remained low on October 17 after peaking on October 13. CTP-ISW recorded seven small arms clashes in the West Bank and five demonstrations in support of the Palestinian resistance and denouncing Israeli attacks into the Gaza Strip. Hamas remains committed to expanding the war to the West Bank.

Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called for mobilization in the West Bank following an explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip on October 17, which may increase the rate of clashes in the coming days.[14] The IDF said that PIJ conducted a rocket attack that failed and hit the active hospital.[15] The Hamas-run Health Ministry contrastingly claimed that an Israeli airstrike hit the hospital. The explosion has reportedly killed hundreds.[16] ISW cannot independently verify the cause of the explosion or the exact death toll.[17] The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claimed to attack IDF positions in the West Bank in response to the explosion.

LH-affiliated Al Mayadeen claimed on October 16 that the IDF’s focus on the West Bank throughout 2023 contributed to its intelligence failure ahead of Hamas’ October 7 attack.[19] The report said that IDF redeployments from southern Israel to the West Bank drew IDF attention away from the Gaza Strip. It also alleged that Hamas deceived Israel by not interfering in conflict between Israel and other Gaza-based Palestinian militias throughout the year.

Senior Iranian regime officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have called for the arming of Palestinian militias in the West Bank since August 2022, as CTP-ISW has reported extensively.[20] These calls have coincided with an uptick in kinetic activity in the West Bank during the past year.[21] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami previously specified during an interview with the Supreme Leader’s website in August 2022 that Iran seeks to arm Palestinian groups’ ”infantry” in the West Bank to conduct more ground operations against Israeli security forces and stoke unrest.[22] The Iranian focus on the West Bank in addition to several reports noting the flow of weapons into the territory this year via Iran‘s proxy network in the Levant suggests that the West Bank remains a threat to Israel.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas canceled a meeting scheduled for October 18 with US President Joe Biden and other leaders in the Middle East, according to a senior Palestinian official.
Abbas withdrew from the summit to protest the explosion at the hospital in the Gaza Strip.[24] The Palestinian Authority was founded in 1994 and is the governing body that oversees the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

CTP-ISW recorded 10 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 17, including seven against military targets Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed responsibility for all 10 attacks on military and civilian targets along the Israel-Lebanon border, including an anti-tank missile attack on Metulla that wounded two IDF soldiers.[26] This is the third consecutive day that LH has targeted Metulla. The IDF called for civilians to immediately evacuate Metulla and other areas along the Lebanese border.[27] The IDF separately killed at least two LH militants attempting to plant explosive devices near Hanita along the Israel-Lebanon border on October 17.

LH activity on Israel’s northern border creates opportunities for further operations against Israel. LH has targeted dozens of Israeli military targets in northern Israel since October 7, including Israeli border outposts, surveillance, military equipment, and barracks. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance, including LH, are preparing for the Hamas-Israel war to expand into a regional conflict.[29] Israeli officials have furthermore reported on LH efforts to transport weapons to Lebanon via the Damascus and Aleppo international airports.[30] The IDF has conducted three airstrikes on those airports in recent days to disrupt possible Iranian military transfers to the Levant.


Iran and Axis of Resistance

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated what other senior Iranian officials are saying about the Hamas-Israel war during a speech on October 17. Khamenei echoing these talking points demonstrates his support for them and signals to the rest of the Iranian regime that these are the official positions.

• Khamenei warned that the continuation of Israeli “crimes” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip will make resistance groups “impatient” and that “no one will be able to stop [these groups].”[31] “Resistance groups” is the term that Iranian officials use to describe the proxy and partner militias that Iran sponsors throughout the Middle East. Khamenei’s warning resembles similar warnings from Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian since October 9. Abdollahian posted on X (Twitter) on October 16 that the expansion of the Hamas-Israel war to “other fronts” is becoming “inevitable.”[32] Abdollahian separately warned that resistance groups may take “preemptive” measures against Israel during an interview on Iranian state television on October 16.[33]
• Khamenei also accused the United States of determining Israel’s “current policy” vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip, echoing claims from Iranian officials and media since October 13 that the United States is playing a direct role in the Hamas-Israel war.[34] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, for instance, recirculated Lebanese Hezbollah’s assertion that the United States is the “real owner” of the Hamas-Israel war and that Israel is “merely implementing American decisions.”[35] Tasnim similarly alleged on October 16 that American military commanders are overseeing some operations against the Gaza Strip because Israeli officers are suffering from “mental and psychological confusion.”[36] Abdollahian accused the United States of encouraging Israel to conduct more attacks against civilians in the Gaza Strip during a phone call with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell on October 17.[37] Members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance—including Lebanese Hezbollah and the Bashar al Assad regime—have criticized the US role in the conflict as well.

Senior IRGC commanders are framing Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel. Former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari framed the attack as a “warmup” to prepare and train for future operations against Israel in an interview on October 15.[39] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami similarly described Hamas’ operation as the “first stage” of Israel’s “hasty collapse.”[40] IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi added on October 17 that the Axis of Resistance will inflict a new “shockwave” on Israel if it continues its “atrocities” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/israel%E2%80%93hamas-war-iran-updates

I see that. It seems they're biding their time...for a variety of reason; the hostages, the exodus of Palestinians from Gaza, and military strategy as well.

True, “haste makes waste”


Pentagon says missiles from Yemen were ‘potentially’ aimed at Israel, ‘posed threat’
By AP

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, tells reporters that the USS Carney, a Navy destroyer in the northern Red Sea, intercepted three land attack cruise missiles and several drones that were launched by Houthi forces in Yemen. He says they were shot down over the water.

“We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched from Yemen heading north along the Red Sea, potentially towards targets in Israel,” Ryder says in a Pentagon briefing.

Ryder says the missiles were shot down because they “posed a potential threat” based on their flight profile, adding that the US is prepared to do whatever is needed “to protect our partners and our interests in this important region.” He says the US is still assessing what the target was.

The western media were very quick to say 500 deaths and blamed Israel right away. pure propaganda by Hamas !

European intelligence source tells AFP: A maximum of 50 killed in Gaza hospital !
Israel has denied it was responsible for the explosion, providing evidence that it was caused by a misfired Islamic Jihad rocket aimed at Israel, which has been accepted by the UK, US and many others as credible.

VDL: Iran sanctions needed as it's equipping Hamas
POLITICSChristian Baha / NP3 hours ago
1 min read

EPA-EFE/RAJAT GUPTA
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claimed on Thursday that 93% of all the equipment Hamas is using is supplied by Iran and that Tehran needs to be sanctioned because of this.

Speaking at an event at the Hudson Institute, von der Leyen noted that the European Union and its allies have already introduced a series of sanctions against Iran but that they need to "catch up" and "close loopholes" in order to ensure there is no circumvention of these measures.

The EU official also accused Tehran of wanting to "fuel the fire of chaos" in the MIddle East and warned the threat of a "regional spillover" of the Israel-Hamas conflict is "real" but noted an "escalation is not inevitable." She insisted the Eu and its allies "stand with Israel" and need to take action to prevent the "horror" from spreading.

That was a good move by the U.S. fleet. And it showed just one iota of our capabilities if we so chose to "intervene."

Dutch travel advice Lebanon to red: do not go there or leave the country

The travel advice for all of Lebanon is now red. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs advises people not to travel to Lebanon. The ministry also advises people to leave Lebanon as soon as possible if it is safe to do so.
Previously, the color code for the country was orange (travel only if necessary), and red (do not go there) in border areas.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicates that the unpredictable developments between Israel and the Palestinian Territories have increased tensions in Lebanon. "Rocket attacks and shelling are being carried out from Israel and Lebanon in the border area. It is unpredictable whether this violence will spread to other parts of Lebanon."

I think Biden convinced Israel to delay its Gaza invasion to "give diplomacy a chance." Biden's moral and political priority is to rescue American hostages (Israeli hostages, too), which is why he dispatched Blinken on his shuttle diplomacy mission among so-called "moderate" Arab leaders. Netanyahu probably agreed to the delay because all the hostages would be killed the moment an invasion was launched, and because he needs American might (those two aircraft carrier task forces) to deter Hezbollah and Iran from opening a second front, which would badly strain Israeli resources.

It's been pretty well established by now that the hospital rocket was launched by Hamas ally Palestinian Islamic Jihad, not Israel; that it landed in the hospital parking lot and did not demolish the hospital (although the hospital was damaged); and that the death toll is more like 100 to 200, not 500 as claimed by Hamas. But, it was a "gift" to Hamas, giving them more dead Palestinians to blame on Israel. It also forced the "moderate" Arab leaders to back out of a summit conference Biden requested. Big victory for Hamas because the world will alwlays blame Israel for everything and anything bad.

Blinken probably had established at least a framework for an agreement with the moderates before they backed out--Biden wouldn't have agreed to go to the summit if he had to start negotiating from scratch. That framework might still be on the table if the moderates cool off and come back. But, unless Israel can utterly destroy Hamas, they'll have suffered a major defeat--even if one surviving Hamas fighter is photographed waving his AK-47 on top of a pile of rubble that was once Gaza city, every Arab and enemy of Israel will believe that they won a "great victory."

Iran's 'Axis Of Resistance': A Network Designed To Create Chaos, Fight Tehran's Enemies

As fighting intensifies between Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel, Iran has been increasingly vocal about the prospect of additional firepower entering the fray to score a victory for what Tehran calls the "axis of resistance" against Israel.

The axis, refined by the Islamic republic over the last four decades, is a loose-knit network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors who play an important role in Iran's strategy to oppose the West, Arab foes, and, primarily, Israel.

Active in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, the network allows Iran to create chaos in enemy territory, while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability.

In the case of the latest conflict involving Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the stronger the Israeli response and the greater the blowback by Israel's Shi'ite and Sunni enemies in the region, the better it is for Iran, experts say.

It is a strategy that dates back to before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, according to experts, but was honed and rebranded as the axis of resistance by the Quds Force, the elite overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

"Although a new term, ‘axis of resistance' describes an old phenomenon: any individual or group willing to fight Iran's wars in return for funding, arms, military training, and intelligence support," Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told RFE/RL in written comments.

But while Iran openly positions itself as the leading voice of the network as it calls for global resistance against Israel and the West, "the Quds Force avoids micromanagement and provides the proxies with some maneuvering room," Alfoneh said.

This relative autonomy, which at times has even seen proxies and partners work against Tehran's regional interests, makes it difficult to pin blame directly on Iran.

"If there is any kind of kinetic retaliation, your proxy, your partner absorbs the retaliation, and if your adversary wants to widen the scope, they have a hard time politically connecting the dots to do that," Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told RFE/RL.

'Successful Proxy Strategy'

The October 7 assault on Israel carried out by the Sunni militant group Hamas was a case in point, with Iran lauding the attack that killed more than 1,400 Israelis and triggered retaliatory Israeli strikes on Gaza that have so far killed more than 3,700 people and unleashed a devastating humanitarian crisis.

But despite Iran's longstanding support of Hamas -- which Alfoneh said is historically closer to Sunni Arab states and is for the most part funded by Qatar -- Israel and the West have not been able to directly tie the assault to Iran.

"When assessing the connective tissue between Iran and Hamas, we can't forget that the desire for Iran to disguise its own hand plays into the Islamic republic's own successful proxy strategy," Taleblu said. "The fact that some folks are having a hard time finding an immediate go order, or a very clear green light, is the success of the proxy strategy."

The axis of resistance is part of Iran's attempts to export the Twelver Jafari School of Shi'a Islam, which was named as Iran's official religion after 1979, and “it’s kind of messianic vision for what the Middle East would look like," Taleblu explained.

"This ideology only has resonance when the Middle East is in chaos, and the Islamic republic is an expert in managing chaos," he added.

The U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members, injected an element of chaos within the ranks of the network itself.

But while it presented challenges, it was not enough to disrupt the Quds Force or break up the axis.

"The Quds Force is a highly institutionalized military organization and the assassination of Major-General Soleimani had no impact on the performance of the organization," Alfoneh said.

The axis has continued its operations through Hamas and the Iran-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, sworn Israel enemy and Iranian proxy Lebanese Hizballah, and Iran-backed Shi’ite militias in Iraq known as the Popular Mobilization Force.

In Syria, the IRGC has deployed troops to aid government forces supporting President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, and in Yemen Iran has championed the Huthis, which has been battling a military alliance led by Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia.

At times, some of these groups have flexed their independence from Iran and acted against Tehran's interest.

Alfoneh recalled Hizballah's kidnapping of Israeli border guards in 2006, which he said, "resulted in a devastating war that was much more problematic, since it was contrary to Iran's overall strategy of using Hizballah as a deterrent against Israel."

Major Differences

Major differences were observed between Hamas and Iran during the Syrian conflict as the Palestinian militants refused to come to the aid of Assad, a key Tehran ally.

And the political rise of some groups, including in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, has led some to distance themselves from Iran, at least rhetorically, to retain their domestic legitimacy.

Hamas has insisted that it alone was behind its multipronged assault on Israel, and that Iran and Hizballah had no role. Hizballah has in recent days exchanged fire with Israel across the border in the biggest escalation of violence since their 2006 war. Israel has accused Hizballah of carrying out the attacks "under Iranian instruction."

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which also has a presence in Lebanon, is also believed to have mounted a cross-border attack on Israel on October 10.

In Iraq, sources told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Iranian officials met with the heads of pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias after the October 7 attack on Israel.

Radio Farda has since reported that Shi’ite militias in Iraq have created a joint operational headquarters aimed at supporting the operation of Palestinian militant groups against Israel.

While Iran did engage different proxies in joint operations in Syria, Alfoneh of the Arab Gulf States Institute told RFE/RL: "In general, Iran prefers to preserve a degree of compartmentalization so intelligence leaks from one proxy do not compromise the entire proxy network."

A Strategic Victory?

In turn, Israel’s military reaction and the United States’ diplomatic and military support for Israel following the Hamas assault and the threat of the involvement of other members of the axis of resistance, can be seen as a strategic victory for Iran.

"The fact that the U.S. has to send such overt conventional military hardware [to Israel] is being seen as a win in Tehran, for them to have to deter a nonstate actor like Lebanese Hizballah," said Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

"This goes to show you how much Iran's proxies and their hybrid and conventional and asymmetric military capabilities [have grown] over the past few decades."

For its part, Hizballah claimed on October 18 that it was "thousands of times stronger" than it was during its last war with Israel, highlighting the possibility that the axis overall is more formidable in terms of firepower and recruitment than ever.

But Alfoneh said the strength of the axis, coming as Iran has called for an expanded alliance against Israel, is "not important."

"As long as the smaller and more expendable proxies such as Hamas can poke a hole in Israel's Iron Dome and demonstrate Israel's vulnerability, and as long as the more valuable proxies such as Hizballah can stay out of the war and provide Iran with an effective deterrence against Israeli bombardment of Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran is perfectly happy," Alfoneh said.

Taleblu said, despite Iran's effort to distance itself from a possible broader conflict involving its proxies and the militant groups that make up the axis of resistance, it is important to not let Tehran hide behind a shield of plausible deniability.

"It's imperative to constantly hold the patron accountable, and not just the proxy," Taleblu said. "Every time you hold only the proxy accountable, the patron will fight to live another day."

With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

No word from Meyer this week, hope he is ok.

Yeah he still didn't know if he would be send to the border with Lebanon or Gaza.

The USA is key in this conflict also Ukraine war the Americans are still the only superpower in the world !

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 20, 2023
Oct 20, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF








Iran Update, October 20, 2023

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Amin Soltani and Brian Carter

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 20. Hamas also released two American hostages held in Gaza, marking the first time Hamas has released any hostages since its October 7 attack into Israel.
2. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the West Bank increased following Hamas calls for protests on October 18. The Israel-Hamas War may be driving Palestinian militia coordination in the West Bank.
3. Iranian-backed militants targeted US forces stationed at Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and al Harir Air Base on October 20, marking the third consecutive day of attacks against US forces in the Middle East. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to continue attacks on US forces in the Middle East.

Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 20. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas' militant wing—claimed ten rocket, mortar, and drone attacks. Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad—claimed responsibility for another seven rocket attacks. This rate of attacks is consistent with the rates that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days. Both groups continue to frame these attacks as being in response to Israeli “massacres” against civilians.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for the first armed drone attack since October 15, which destroyed an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) tank.[1] The al Qassem Brigades released a propaganda video and two photographs on October 20 of its drones and drone attacks and threatened further attacks.[2] The al Qassem Brigades has used these drones to strike IDF soldiers and infrastructure in attacks since October 7.

Hamas released two American hostages held in Gaza, marking the first time Hamas has released any hostages since its October 7 attack into Israel. Hamas military spokesperson Abu Ubaida released a statement on October 20 claiming that it had released the hostages after Qatari mediation efforts.[4] Ubaida also said that the hostage release was in response to US President Joe Biden‘s “false allegations” about the group during Biden’s address on October 19.[5] Hamas continues to hold over 200 other hostages.

IDF airstrikes continue to kill Hamas leadership and operatives in Gaza. The IDF killed senior Hamas engineer Mahmoud Zavih on October 20.[6] The IDF reported that Zavih was responsible for weapons production for Hamas' military wing, the al Qassem Brigades.[7] The IDF said the leader “exchanged knowledge with other terrorists in the Middle East,” suggesting the leader supported the weapons production effort of other Axis of Resistance groups in the region.

The IDF is degrading Hamas’ naval capabilities which Hamas could use to target Israeli gas rigs and other infrastructure, according to an Israeli journalist.[8] An IDF airstrike on October 19 killed a member of Hamas’ naval branch in Gaza who the IDF claimed was plotting maritime attacks.[9] The IDF also killed another member of Hamas’ naval branch in Gaza who participated in Hamas’ attack into Israel on October 7.[10] Hamas has worked to develop its naval capabilities in recent years. The IDF reported in 2021 that Hamas for the first time developed unmanned sea vessels to launch attacks in Israel.

West Bank

Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the West Bank increased following Hamas calls for protests the day before. CTP-ISW recorded 17 distinct clashes and 12 demonstrations in the West Bank on October 20. Many demonstrators condemned the Israeli raid on the Nour Shams refugee camp on October 19 where six Palestinians and one Israeli officer died.[12] Unspecified militants detonated an IED targeting an IDF convoy at the camp overnight.[13] Hamas called for protests in support of the Gaza Strip across all cities and towns in the West Bank on October 20, as part of Hamas’ effort to expand fighting against Israel to the West Bank.

• Palestinians held Hamas and Fatah flags at a demonstration in Hebron and Yatta condemning Israeli attacks and in support of Gaza. The IDF dropped leaflets in Hebron warning it will find and catch anyone who identifies themselves as a member of Hamas.[17] Hamas chairman Khaled Mashaal called on Fatah to defeat Israel together.[18] The Hamas and Fatah signed a reconciliation deal on October 13 after having been at odds for more than a decade.[19]
• Hamas claimed that al Qassem Brigades fought in the Nour Shams camp on October 19.[20] The PIJ-affiliated Tulkarm Brigade said that several Palestinian groups supported them during the fighting.[21] This is the first coordinated small arms clash that a Palestinian militia has claimed in the West Bank since October 7.
• Hamas continued to message that the resistance in the West Bank and Gaza must work together. Hamas’ Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh delivered a speech on October 9 praising the mass popular movement in support of Gaza over the past few days, noting that Israeli aggression extends to the West Bank.[22] Coordinated Palestinian resistance in the West Bank supports Hamas’ stated objectives to expand the war to the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel risk further escalation between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH). LH conducted 18 attacks targeting civilian and military infrastructure in northern Israel on October 20, which is consistent with its rate of attacks since October 15.[30] CTP-ISW recorded between three and five attacks daily between October 12 and October 14.[31] CTP-ISW has recorded between nine and 20 attacks targeting northern Israel daily since October 15.[32]

The IDF intercepted an unspecified drone crossing the Israel-Lebanon border near the Upper Galilee region on October 20.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Iranian-backed militants targeted US forces stationed at Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and al Harir Air Base on October 20, marking the third consecutive day of attacks against US forces in the Middle East.[34] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq - an umbrella group of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias - targeted US forces stationed at Al Harir Air Base in Iraqi Kurdistan on October 20 in a drone attack.[35] It claimed to have launched two drones targeting the air base and reported that both drones “hit their target.”[36] This is the fourth attack claimed by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq during the last three days.[37] Militants from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted Al Harir Air Base and Ain al Asad in Iraq and the al Tanf Garrison and Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria on October 18 and 19.

Unidentified militants targeted US forces stationed at BIAP in a rocket attack on October 20.[39] Iraqi Security forces found the rocket launch site in Jihad neighborhood, which is adjacent to the airport.[40] The counter-rocket artillery mortar (C-RAM) system at BIAP engaged two rockets, destroying one.[41] This is the first attack on BIAP since October 7. No group has claimed the attack on BIAP at the time of publication.

Iranian-backed militias have conducted eight attacks over the past three days across the Middle East in a multi-theater escalation against the United States and Israel. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to conduct attacks on US forces in the region if the United States intervened in the Israel-Hamas war, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[42] Iranian-backed Iraqi groups are currently behaving as though the United States has crossed this red line. Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri warned on October 19 that continued Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip could force “other actors,” including “resistance groups,” to engage in the conflict, echoing previous regime rhetoric about the possibility of a conflict expanding.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to continue attacks on US forces in the Middle East. Tura News, affiliated with Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah, circulated a warning of additional attacks on US forces in Iraq “in the next few days.”[44] Iranian-backed Badr Organization released a promotional video repeating the group’s threat to attack the United States if it intervenes in the Israel-Hamas war.

Ashab al Kahf released a statement on October 20 threatening to conduct improvised explosive device (IED) attacks on US forces.[46] Ashab al Kahf is a member of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq which claimed the one-way drone attack on US forces stationed at Ain al Asad Air Base on October 18.[47] Ashab al Kahf claimed 3 IED attacks targeting US logistics convoys in Iraq between July and August 2023.

IRGC-QF Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani warned Syrian President Bashar al Assad during his visit to Syria on 15 October that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if the Israel-Hamas war expands geographically.[49] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began directing militias to the southwestern Syrian border immediately after the Hamas-led attack into Israel on October 7. Iranian officials have since messaged that a multi-front war against Israel is becoming more likely.

• Najafi reported that Ghaani established a joint operations room in Syria during his visit on October 15.[50] The IRGC will oversee this operations room, according to Iranian state-news journalist Mostafa Najafi.[51] An unspecified Iranian intelligence official said that Iran will start a “limited” ground operation from the Golan Heights and notably not from Lebanon if the situation escalates to protect LH.[52]
• Syrian opposition media reported on October 19 that the Axis of Resistance, in coordination with the Syrian regime, plan to surprise Israel and create a narrative in which the Axis represents the main resistance to Israel.[53] Iranian-backed militias are deployed along the southwestern Syrian border in Rif Dimashq and Daraa province.[54] CTP and ISW have tracked the IRGC and LH from Syria and Iraq deploying to the border of Syrian and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights since October 9.

Iranian-backed militias have relocated ammunition and equipment to residential areas in Deir ez Zor City and Hatla, Deir ez Zor Province on October 19 according to a report from anti-regime news outlet Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).[55] According to local sources cited by SOHR, Iranian-backed militias began transferring weapons to residential areas in fear of a possible retaliation from US forces. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq targeted US forces stationed at al Tanf Garrison and Conoco Mission support site in eastern Syria on October 19, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[56] US forces have targeted Iranian-backed militia weapons storage facilities in Syria in retaliation for strikes on US positions in Syria previously, most notably during the last escalation cycle between the United States and militias in March 2023.

LH and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) arrived in al Mayadin, Deir ez Zor Province, Syria on October 19. LH militants were transferred from Idlib Province, Rif Dimashq Province, and Hatla, Deir ez Zor Province.[58] Popular Mobilization Forces arrived in al Mayadin from Iraq the same day.

PMF supporters traveled to the Iraq-Jordan border near Trebil, Iraq to stage a sit-in in support of the Palestinian people.[60] Sadrist Movement leader Moqtada al Sadr called for Iraqis to hold a sit in on the border with Palestine and remain “until the siege is lifted.”[61] Jordanian authorities did not comment on any convoys traveling to the border; however, Jordanian security forces closed the al Karameh Border Crossing with the West Bank according to Iraqi Kurdistan-based Shafaq news.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) spokesperson Nasser Abu Sharif stated that the potential for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia motivated Hamas’ October 7 attack during an Iranian conference on the Israel-Hamas war in Qom on October 20.[63] Sharif argued that the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would have dealt a devastating blow to the Palestinian cause. He also mentioned that many unspecified intra-Palestinian issues also “justified” the Al Aqsa Flood operation. Sharif further claimed that LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is awaiting a simple “phone call” from resistance leaders before attacking Israel, consistent with Iranian and Axis of Resistance rhetoric about the potential expansion of the conflict since October 13.[64] Sharif finally claimed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has forbidden Palestinian groups from granting any concessions or retreating, consistent with CTP-ISW's previous assessment that the Palestinian resistance is preparing for a prolonged conflict with Israel.

Iranian Friday prayer leaders echoed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent claim that the United States is responsible for Israeli actions against the Gaza Strip during their sermons on October 20.Khamenei accused the United States of determining Israel’s “current policy” vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip during a speech on October 17, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[66] Mashhad Friday Prayer Leader Ahmad Alam ol Hoda emphasized that the United States, not Israel, is the “main perpetrator” of killings and bombings in the Gaza Strip.[67] Varamin Friday Prayer Leader Mohsen Mahmoudi similarly claimed that the United States is “the root of all Israeli crimes."[68] Pardis Friday Prayer Leader Hossein Hosseini asserted that Israel is carrying out attacks against women, children, and hospitals in the Gaza Strip “under the heads of American statesmen.”[69] This coordinated rhetoric from Friday prayer leaders suggests that Khamenei and his inner circle are directing this messaging campaign. Friday prayer leaders receive guidance for the content of their sermons from the Office of the Supreme Leader.

Iranian officials and media are criticizing US President Joe Biden’s October 18 visit to Israel and framing it as part of US-Israeli preparation for an Israeli ground invasion into the Gaza Strip. Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian described Biden’s visit as “provocative” during a meeting with his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib on the sidelines of the emergency Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah on October 18.[70] Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani similarly stated that Biden’s visit highlighted US plans to “complicate” the situation in the Middle East during a phone call with his Iraqi counterpart Thabet al Abbasi on October 20.

• State-run outlet IRNA claimed on October 20 that the purpose of Biden’s visit to Israel was to “strengthen” Israeli attacks against Hamas.[72] Qods Friday Prayer Leader Hamza Mohammadi claimed on October 20 that Biden gave the Israeli government “the green light” for a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip.[73] Regime outlets recirculated Western reporting on October 19 that Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington is “fully in support” of a ground invasion.

Iranian officials have begun comparing Israel to ISIS and Hitler after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled Hamas as “ISIS” and “the new Nazis” on October 17.[75] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian compared Israel to ISIS while claiming that Israel attacked a Greek Orthodox church in the Gaza Strip on October 20.[76] Iranian Chief Rabbi Younes Hamami Lalehzar separately stated that Israel cannot represent Judaism “just as ISIS cannot represent Islam” during an interview with English-language Press TV on October 20.[77] Passive Defense Organization Head Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali described Israel as “a new Hitler in the region” in a speech on October 20.[78] The above rhetoric is consistent with Iranian accusations since October 11 that Israel is committing war crimes and genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Iranian media recirculated Western and Syrian reporting on the October 19 Iranian-backed militant attacks on US military assets. State-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency recirculated the sUS Defense Department’s announcement that it had intercepted several Houthi missiles and drones on October 19.[79] The Iran-backed Houthis launched at least three land-attack cruise missiles and eight drones “potentially” targeting Israel.[80] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency recirculated Western and Syrian media reporting on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase, Anbar province, Iraq as well as the Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria.[81] The Islamic Resistance of Iraq fired three drones targeting the al Tanf Garrison, Syria and three one-way drones targeting Conoco Mission Support Site on October 19.[82] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias also launched an unspecified number of rockets targeting US forces at the Ain al Asad Airbase.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-20-2023

RIP

Soldier killed by Lebanon missile; Gallant: Hezbollah joined fighting, is paying price
Staff Sgt. (res.) Omer Balva, a dual Israeli-American citizen, flew from US to report for duty, was killed Friday night; 3 others hurt; defense minister meets with troops in north

https://www.timesofisrael.com/soldi...zbollah-joined-fighting-is-paying-price/

Three fronts now!


Israel-Gaza war: Israeli air strike hits West Bank refugee camp

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 22, 2023
Oct 22, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 22, 2023
Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


Key Takeaways:


1. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Palestinian militias increased their targeting of the Israel Defense Forces in these attacks, likely as part of their preparations to defend against a possible Israeli ground operation.
Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank dropped by roughly half.
2. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 17 attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign against Israeli forces and assets.
3. Iranian leaders have reached a consensus approving limited cross-border Lebanese Hezbollah attacks into Israel, according to Reuters. This report and others indicate that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are coordinating a carefully calibrated escalation to draw Israeli attention away from the Gaza Strip.
4. The Israel Defense Forces Air Force conducted airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airport runways. The Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry indicated that the airstrikes in Syria are part of an Israeli effort to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.
5. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani arrived in Syria to monitor Iranian-backed militias on the Israel-Syria border, according to Israeli media. Ghaani previously warned Syrian President Bashar al Assad that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if the war expands.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted a one-way drone attack on US forces at Ain al Asad air base in Iraq, marking the fifth consecutive day of attacks targeting US force in the Middle East. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel.
7. The Houthi prime minister said that the Houthis will target Israeli ships in the Red Sea if Israel continues operations in the Gaza Strip after meeting with Palestinian militia officials in Sanaa, Yemen.


Gaza Strip


Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 22. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 12 direct and indirect fire attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another three rocket attacks.[2] This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip increased their targeting of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), likely as part of their preparations to defend against a possible Israeli ground operation. Palestinian militias targeted a greater proportion of military targets relative to their overall attacks than at any point since October 18, when the militias targeted IDF positions near the Gaza Strip 15 times.[3] Palestinian militias launched eight direct and indirect fire attacks targeting the IDF on October 22.[4] They also fired mortars and rockets targeting Israeli cities and towns seven times. Al Qassem Brigades fighters separately killed one Israeli soldier and wounded three others during a firefight within the Gaza Strip.[5] The IDF said that the Israeli forces were searching for the bodies of missing Israelis and preparing for Israel’s ground operation.


West Bank


Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank dropped by roughly half on October 22. CTP-ISW recorded nine distinct clashes.[8] Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Qabatiya, close to Jenin, on October 22. The al Aqsa Martyrs‘ Brigade fighters used small arms and improvised explosive devices (IED) against Israeli forces.[9]

CTP-ISW recorded only two demonstrations in the West Bank on October 22, which is consistent with the number of demonstrations on October 21.[10] Hamas’ calls for protests in support of the Gaza Strip across the world did not generate increased protests in the West Bank.[11]

Israeli forces continued raids and arrests in the West Bank, arresting at least 46 Palestinians, including 27 active Hamas members and two PIJ military leaders, south of Jenin on October 22.


Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights


Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 17 attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign against IDF forces and assets on October 22. These attacks are consistent with the increased rate of Iranian-backed attacks into Israel since October 15. This campaign creates opportunities for additional Iranian-backed ground attacks into Israel and increases the risk of further escalation, as CTP-ISW previously noted.[14] LH militants fired surface-to-air missiles at an IDF helicopter, marking the first use of air defense in Lebanon against the IDF since the start of the war.[15] The IDF intercepted a drone crossing from Lebanon into Israel—the first attempted drone infiltration from Lebanon since October 20.[16] The majority of attacks from Lebanon used anti-tank guided missiles against IDF forces and positions.[17] Israeli forces struck five ATGM squads in southern Lebanon on October 22.

The Israeli Defense Ministry expanded the civilian evacuation zone along the Israel-Lebanon border to encompass 14 additional towns.[19] Israel previously evacuated towns within two kilometers of the border.[20]

Several Iranian-backed militias are participating in the attack campaign against Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. The al Qassem Brigades fired multiple barrages of rockets at northern Israeli towns on October 15 and 19.[21] Saraya al Quds claimed four of its fighters have died in southern Lebanon since October 7.[22] LH has almost certainly approved these attacks given the extent to which LH controls southern Lebanon and coordinates with the other Iranian-backed groups operating there.

Iranian leaders have reached a consensus approving limited cross-border LH attacks into Israel, according to Reuters.[23] Two LH-affiliated individuals also told Reuters that the LH military activity around northern Israel is meant to ”keep Israeli forces busy but not open a major new front.” CTP-ISW cannot verify the accuracy of this report. It is consistent, however, with the IDF spokesperson stating that Iran has instructed LH to escalate against Israel and thereby impose pressure on the IDF while it prepares for ground operations into the Gaza Strip.[24] These reports indicate that Iran and LH are coordinating a carefully calibrated escalation to draw Israeli attention away from the Gaza Strip.

The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airport runways on October 22.[25] Israel previously conducted multiple airstrikes on Damascus and Aleppo international airports on October 12 and 14, disrupting critical nodes through which Iran funnels military equipment and personnel into the Levant.[26] A senior official at the Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry indicated that the airstrikes in Syria are part of an Israeli effort to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.[27] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has long used commercial airliners affiliated with the Iranian regime for military transports to Syria throughout the civil war there.

Unidentified militants conducted an indirect fire attack into the Golan Heights following the IDF airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports, possibly as symbolic retaliation. Israeli forces intercepted the fire.[28] This is a consistent response pattern to Israeli airstrikes into Syria since the war began. Unidentified militants launched indirect fire into the Golan Heights following the previous airstrikes.

IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani arrived in Syria on October 21 to monitor Iranian-backed militias on the Israel-Syria border, according to Israeli media.[30] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this report. Iranian-backed militias have concentrated in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria in recent days as part of Iran-led preparations for the war to expand into a regional conflict.[31] An Iranian state-affiliated journalist previously claimed that Ghaani warned Syrian President Bashar al Assad on October 15 that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if the Israel-Hamas war expands.[32] An unspecified Iranian intelligence official claimed that Iran would start a ”limited” ground operation from Syria into the Golan Heights and notably not from Lebanon if the situation escalates to protect LH.[33]

The rhetoric of the Lebanese prime minister and foreign minister diverged on the issue of Lebanon’s possible future involvement in the Israel-Hamas war. Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed concern but indicated that the situation is returning to normal and that the Lebanese government is making every effort to keep harm away from Lebanon.[34] Lebanese Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib contrastingly expressed concern about the outbreak of war in southern Lebanon based on Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip during an interview with al Jazeera.[35] Bou Habib called for a ceasefire but warned that Israel will in the event of a larger war erupting suffer far more losses than it did in the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war.


Iran and Axis of Resistance


The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted a one-way drone attack on US forces at Ain al Asad air base in Iraq on October 22, marking the fifth consecutive day of attacks targeting US force in the Middle East.[36] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed nine drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria since October 18.[37] Four of those attacks targeted the Ain al Asad air base.[38] These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel, as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[39] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah threatened additional attacks against US positions on October 20.[40]

The Houthi prime minister said on October 22 that the Houthis will target Israeli ships in the Red Sea if Israel continues operations in the Gaza Strip after meeting with Palestinian militia officials in Sanaa, Yemen on October 21.[41] The Houthi prime minister also acknowledged on October 22 that the United States intercepted Houthi drones and missiles headed toward Israel over the Red Sea on October 19.[42] He claimed that some of the missiles and drones still hit their targets.[43] CTP-ISW has not observed any indications of a Houthi drone or missile strike within Israel, however. The Houthi prime minister is a southern Yemeni.[44] He is not part of the Houthi Movement’s inner circle, which is almost exclusively made up of northern Yemenis.

IRGC-affiliated media is conducting an information operation asserting that Israel does not care about Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip. Tasnim News Agency recirculated a Hamas claim that Hamas sought to transfer two hostages to Israel but that Israeli officials refused to accept their delivery on October 22.[46] Tasnim similarly claimed on October 21 that Israel’s “clandestine goal” is to “cause the killing of captive Israelis,” according to “informed sources.”[47] Tasnim published the article in both Persian and English, which suggests that the messaging is intended for both domestic and global audiences.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-22-2023

China has deployed six warships, including a guided-missile destroyer, in the Middle East amid escalating tensions. The presence of these vessels signifies China's operation in the region during the heightened situation.

Major concern about global terror attacks.

‘Battle of entire Muslim Ummah’: Islamist terror outfits Al-Qaeda and ISIS call for global jihad, asks followers to attack Israeli, US and Jewish targets

https://www.opindia.com/2023/10/isr...ers-to-attack-israeli-us-jewish-targets/

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 24, 2023
Oct 24, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 24, 2023

Brian Carter, Peter Mills, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Hamas and its allies are preparing the information environment to blame Israel for the possible deaths of hostages in the Gaza Strip, especially if Hamas begins killing hostages. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel.
2. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces have decreased significantly in the West Bank. Hamas has repeatedly tried to incite violence against Israel in the West Bank since the war began.
3. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted six attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. These attacks are consistent with Western and Israeli reports that LH is trying to “keep Israeli forces busy.”
4. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed daily attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since October 18. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel.
5. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Alwiya Waad al Haq (the Righteous Promise Brigades) threatened to attack US forces in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
6. Iran is setting informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war and deflect any responsibility from itself. This narrative that Iran is pushing ignores the fact that Iran has already facilitated the expansion of this war to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen by directing its proxy and partner militias in these countries to attack US and Israeli targets.

Gaza Strip

Hamas and its allies are preparing the information environment to blame Israel for the possible deaths of hostages in the Gaza Strip, especially if Hamas begins killing hostages. Hamas military spokesperson Abu Ubaida said on October 9 that Hamas would kill hostages in response to Israeli airstrikes, indicating Hamas’ willingness to do so for perceived military and/or political gains.[1] Tasnim News Agency—an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—reported on October 22 that Israel’s “clandestine goal” is to “cause the killing of captive Israelis,” according to “informed sources.[2] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) spokesperson Abu Hamza said on October 24 that Israel does not “pay attention” to the lives of hostages.[3]

Hamas and allied Palestinian militias took hostages during the October 7 attack likely to discourage an Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip and/or to secure concessions of some kind. Israeli actions and rhetoric suggest that Hamas and allied militias will fail to generate those desired effects, however. Israel is continuing to prepare for a possible ground operation into the Gaza Strip, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel-Hamas hostage negotiations collapsed after Hamas demanded that Israel allow fuel deliveries into the Gaza Strip.[4] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson said that fuel will not enter the strip because Hamas uses fuel for its military infrastructure.[5] Israeli sources said that Israel estimates that Hamas and allied militias are low on fuel and will need to leave their tunnel networks underneath the Gaza Strip once their fuel is depleted.

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 11 indirect fire attacks.[7] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of PIJ—claimed responsibility for six mortar and rocket attacks.[8] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—the militant wing of Fatah—claimed responsibility for two rocket attacks.[9] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed responsibility for three mortar attacks.[10] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media and IDF outlets reported two other unclaimed rocket attacks.[11] This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days.

CTP-ISW recorded one infiltration attempt from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. IDF naval elements targeted a cell of Hamas divers attempting to infiltrate Israel near Zikim.[12] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its forces clashed with the IDF near Zikim after the attempted infiltration.[13] Other Palestinian sources said that fifteen Hamas fighters infiltrated into the Zikim naval base, where they clashed with the IDF.[14] The IDF wounded six Hamas fighters, according to Palestinian media.

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 11 indirect fire attacks.[7] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of PIJ—claimed responsibility for six mortar and rocket attacks.[8] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—the militant wing of Fatah—claimed responsibility for two rocket attacks.[9] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed responsibility for three mortar attacks.[10] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media and IDF outlets reported two other unclaimed rocket attacks.[11] This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days.

CTP-ISW recorded one infiltration attempt from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. IDF naval elements targeted a cell of Hamas divers attempting to infiltrate Israel near Zikim.[12] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its forces clashed with the IDF near Zikim after the attempted infiltration.[13] Other Palestinian sources said that fifteen Hamas fighters infiltrated into the Zikim naval base, where they clashed with the IDF.[14] The IDF wounded six Hamas fighters, according to Palestinian media.

West Bank

Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces have decreased significantly in the West Bank on October 24. CTP-ISW recorded three clashes on October 24 compared to nine on October 23.[16] CTP-ISW also recorded one demonstration in Tulkram in solidarity with the Gaza Strip.[17] Hamas has repeatedly tried to incite violence against Israel in the West Bank since the war began.[18]

• The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade claimed responsibility for an ambush targeting the IDF in Burqa, Nablus.[19] Militants lured the IDF before throwing an IED and opening fire at them. Israeli media reported that one IDF soldier was wounded in the fighting.[20]
• The Jabaa Battalion—a component of PIJ’s al Quds Brigades—claimed responsibility for shooting down an Israeli drone in Jaba, Jerusalem. LH-controlled al Manar reported that Jabaa Battalion militants shot down the drone while engaging IDF soldiers in small arms combat.[21]
• The Nablus Brigade—a unit of PIJ’s al Quds Brigades—reported that it attacked at least one IDF patrol in Nablus.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted six attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.[23 LH claimed two anti-tank guided munition (ATGM) attacks on IDF positions along the northern Israeli border.[24] LH also released a compilation video of previous attacks on IDF radar and sensor sites.[25] LH has continued to suffer casualties in the fighting around the border as the IDF targets ATGM squads preparing to fire into Israel.[26] An LH-affiliated journalist claimed that the group intends to destroy the IDF’s ”espionage capacity” and limit all mechanical and personnel movement along the border through these attacks.[27] These attacks are consistent with Western and Israeli reports that LH is trying to “keep Israeli forces busy.”[28] This campaign also creates opportunities for further LH attacks into Israel and increases the risk of further escalation, as CTP-ISW previously noted.[29]

Unidentified militants in southwestern Syria launched two rockets into the Golan Heights on October 24.[30] CTP-ISW has recorded five attacks into the Golan Heights from Syria since the war began.[31] This most recent attack is inconsistent with the attack pattern that CTP-ISW has observed during the war so far. Unidentified militants have only fired into the Golan Heights from Syria after Israeli airstrikes on Syrian airports up until this point.[32] The IDF has conducted five airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports since October 7 to disrupt possible Iranian efforts to transfer military equipment and personnel to Syria.

LH and Lebanese government officials have opposing messages about the possibility of the war expanding to Lebanon. The Lebanese prime minister and Lebanese army commander visited southern Lebanon on October 24 to discuss de-escalating and restoring stability with United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFL) leaders.[34] The Lebanese Army commander stated the Lebanese army is following developments and maintaining readiness at the southern border, while the Lebanese prime minister called Lebanon a peace-loving country. The Lebanese prime minister and the army commander do not control LH forces in southern Lebanon and cannot meaningfully enforce de-escalation, however. LH Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem warned on October 24 that LH is at the heart of the battle to defend the Gaza Strip and that the group’s “hand is on the trigger.”

Iran and Axis of Resistance

The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed daily attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since October 18. The group has claimed 15 drone and rocket attacks in this time. The group continues to expand the location of its attacks against US forces in Syria. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel, as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[36]

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it used drones to attack US forces at al Omar and al Shaddadi in eastern and northeastern Syria respectively on October 23.[37] The group claimed the drones “hit their target”. The group has not previously claimed attacks on US forces in al Omar and al Shaddadi.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it fired two rockets at US forces in Ain al Asad airbase in Iraq on October 24.[38] The group released a video showing the rocket launch but did not include footage of any impact.[39] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed five attacks on US forces at Ain al Asad airbase since October 18. The leader of the Iranian-backed militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba condemned the Iraqi government over its refusal to expel US forces from Iraq on October 24.[40] Nujaba previously threatened to attack US forces in Iraq in May 2023.[41] London-based, Qatar-funded al Araby al Jadeed reported that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani met with the heads of Iranian-backed proxies in Iraq in an effort to deescalate with US forces in Iraq.[42] Nujaba and another Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, Kataib Hezbollah, refused to meet with Sudani and rejected calls for de-escalation.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Alwiya Waad al Haq (the Righteous Promise Brigades) threatened to attack US forces in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates on October 24. Alwiya Waad al Haq previously claimed drone attacks targeting the Saudi royal palace in January 2021 and ”vital facilities” in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates in February 2022.[45] CTP-ISW previously assessed that this group was likely a front for Kataib Hezbollah.[46] Pro-Iran Telegram channels affiliated with Iraqi proxy groups echoed the group’s threat to attack US forces in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.[47] This threat and its amplification in pro-Iran channels suggest that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are willing to escalate regionally beyond Iraq and Syria.

Iran is setting informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war and deflect any responsibility from itself. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s official website accused Israel of trying to ignite “a direct war against Iran with US support.”[48] Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani stated on October 24 that Iran is seeking to preserve regional “stability and security” despite “war-mongering” from the United States and its allies.[49] IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency argued on October 24 that Axis of Resistance attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria are only meant to deter further American involvement in the Israel-Hamas war.[50] Nine unspecified Iranian officials told the Qatari-owned, London-based al Araby al Jadeed that Iran only supports “limited” and “small-scale” militia attacks on Israel and US positions in the region but would not seek to open a ”major new front in the war” on October 24.[51] Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali lastly stated that the responsibility for ”any escalation” of the conflict would fall on the United States and Israel during an interview with Russian state media on October 24.

This information operation that the Iranian regime is conducting is meant to frame the United States and Israel as the antagonists in the war and especially in the event that it escalates further. This information operation also frames the regime as responsible and non-escalatory to its population. This narrative that Iran is pushing ignores the fact that Iran has already facilitated the expansion of this war to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen by directing its proxy and partner militias in these countries to attack US and Israeli targets.

Iranian state media is seizing on Israeli and Western reports of divisions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF generals and between Israel and the United States to revive pre-war narratives about Netanyahu’s and Israel’s isolation and weakness. State-run outlet IRNA recirculated Israeli reporting on October 23 about “disagreements” between Netanyahu and the IDF and about Israel’s “inability to decide” on a ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[52] IRNA’s framing of the disagreements differs from the original Israeli reporting that noted that the Israeli war cabinet and senior Israeli military officials disagree on the “timing and scope” of a ground operation—not on whether to conduct such an operation in the first place.[53] Iranian officials and media repeatedly claimed throughout 2023 that Israel was at its “weakest point” due to protests over Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms and internal political fissures.[54] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated in April 2023, for example, that Israel was in its worst position and “in a hurry” to collapse.

IRNA separately recirculated Israeli and American reporting on October 24 that some US officials doubt the IDF’s readiness to conduct a ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[56] The regime’s emphasis on disharmony between Israel and the United States contrasts with its emphasis on Muslim unity against Israel. Tehran has historically—and particularly since the start of the war on October 7—sought to rally Muslim countries against Israel and frame itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

Iranian media exaggerated the scope and losses of the IDF’s October 22 raid on Khan Younis as part of its ongoing efforts to deter an Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip. Israel conducted a limited raid on Khan Younis to gather information about Israeli hostages and to prepare for a ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[58] The IDF announced that one Israeli soldier was killed during the raid but did not acknowledge Hamas’ claim that it had destroyed Israeli military equipment.[59] State-controlled, English-language Press TV claimed on October 23 that Hamas forced 20 Israeli tanks to retreat during the clashes at Khan Younis.[60] Press TV also claimed that Israeli forces were “caught in an ambush” near Rafah on October 22, which forced them to abandon 10 tanks. IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi similarly referred to the Khan Younis raid when warning Israel on October 23 that a ground operation into the Gaza Strip would precipitate a “regrettable answer from” the Axis of Resistance. Iranian media and officials’ framing of the Khan Younis raid as a defeat for Israel is consistent with previous Iranian rhetoric that the IDF will face “significant challenges” if it launches a ground operation.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-24-2023

i've been in the syria-lebanon border so they took our phones because of safety reasons.
now i'm home for this weekend.

Good to hear from you Meyer stay strong !

Breaking news: USA conducts airstrikes in Syria, targeting Iranian proxy facilities.

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 26, 2023
Oct 26, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF









Iran Update, October 26, 2023

Peter Mills, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Ashka Jhaveri, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The IDF conducted a raid into the Gaza Strip, which Israeli media framed as preparation for the ground operation.
2. Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants and anti-Israel protests continued at their usual rate in the West Bank. The Lions’ Den released a statement indicating increasing alignment with Hamas.
3. Iranian-backed militant attacks around the Israel-Lebanon border decreased significantly. The IDF is conducting daily airstrikes against LH and Palestinian militia targets along the northern Israeli border, which may have contributed to the reduced rate of attacks.
4. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed three attacks on US military positions in Iraq and Syria.
5. A senior Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow and met with Russian and Iranian officials.
6. Iranian officials and media are dismissing US calls for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to show restraint in the Hamas-Israel war. The narrative that Iran cannot control its proxy and partner militias in the Axis of Resistance is an Iranian information operation meant to generate plausible deniability for Iranian-led actions in the Middle East and obfuscate Tehran’s responsibility.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 26. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 10 indirect fire attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for five mortar and rocket attacks.[2] The al Aqsa Matyrs’ Brigade, which claims it is affiliated with Fatah, claimed responsibility for one rocket attack.[3] Fatah denies that it has any connection to the al Aqsa Matyrs’ Brigade, however. The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—claimed responsibility for two rocket attacks.[4] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media reported five other unclaimed mortar and rocket attacks.

Israeli Ground Operations in the Gaza Strip

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed that the IDF will conduct a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip and described its objectives in a televised speech on October 25.[6] Netanyahu stated that the operation is meant to “eliminate Hamas by destroying its military and governance capabilities and to do everything possible to get our hostages back.” Netanyahu did not specify when the operation would begin.

The IDF conducted a raid into the Gaza Strip on October 26, which Israeli media framed as preparation for the ground operation.[7] The IDF Givati Brigade deployed an armored company equipped with bulldozers for the raid.[8] An IDF spokesperson stated that the unit ”eliminated terrorists, neutralized threats, dismantled explosives, [and] neutralized ambushes” during the raid.[9] Palestinian anti-tank elements attempted to fire on the IDF unit, and the IDF tanks returned fire and destroyed the anti-tank elements, according to local Israeli sources.[10]

Iranian state media responded to the raid by pushing the false narrative that Palestinian militants forced the IDF to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.[11] US military doctrine defines a raid as “an operation to temporarily seize an area in order to secure information, confuse an enemy, capture personnel or equipment, or to destroy a capability culminating with a planned withdrawal.”[12] The IDF withdrawal after the operation is consistent with the US military doctrinal definition of a raid, which includes a planned retrograde at the end of the mission.

IDF airstrikes continue to attrit Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip. The IDF reported on October 26 that it killed the deputy head of Hamas’ intelligence department.[13] The IDF stated that the deputy head helped plan the October 7 attack with other senior Hamas officials. The IDF reported that it killed the commander and deputy commander of the al Qassem Brigades’ Darj Tafah battalion in Gaza city.[14] The IDF announced that it killed a battalion commander in the al Qassem Brigades in Khan Younis on October 25.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there.

Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants and anti-Israel protests continued at their usual rate in the West Bank on October 26.[16] CTP-ISW recorded five small arms clashes and eight protests.[17] This rate of activity follows a brief uptick in anti-Israel activity in the West Bank on October 25.[18] The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—appeared to trigger this brief uptick as it released a statement calling for mobilization on October 24.

The Lions’ Den released a statement indicating increasing alignment with Hamas on October 26. The group called for a general business strike throughout the West Bank and described itself as “a sword in the hand of Commander Mohammad Deif,” who is the head of Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades.[20] This framing marks a departure from previous Lions‘ Den claims that the group is not affiliated with any specific Palestinian faction.[21] The statement also marks a departure from previous Lions’ Den calls for mobilization because it refers to the entire West Bank rather than specific locations.[22]

The timing of this statement is noteworthy for several reasons:

• The statement coincides with additional Hamas calls for further escalation against Israel in the West Bank.[23] This apparent alignment comes after CTP-ISW observed indications that Hamas and the Lions’ Den were struggling to coordinate their efforts in the West Bank during the early days of the war.[24]
• The statement comes after Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and PIJ held a coordination and planning meeting in Beirut on October 24.[25] CTP-ISW is considering the hypothesis that this meeting has prompted a change in Palestinian militant behavior in the West Bank.
• The statement comes after Netanyahu reaffirmed on October 25 that the IDF will imminently conduct a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip to destroy Hamas’ “military and governance capabilities.”[26]
The fact that Palestinian militias, especially Hamas, rely on public calls for escalation in the West Bank indicates that these groups lack the necessary chain of command and organization to do so covertly. Hamas has demonstrated that it can organize coordinated efforts in the Gaza Strip because it has organizational infrastructure there through which Hamas leaders can communicate instructions and orders.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militant attacks around the Israel-Lebanon border decreased significantly on October 26. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) did not claim any attacks on Israeli targets for the first time since CTP-ISW began recording LH claims on October 11.[27] Unspecified militants fired a surface-to-air missile targeting an IDF drone.[28] This single attack marks a noteworthy decrease from the six Iranian-backed attacks that CTP-ISW recorded on October 25.[29]

The IDF is conducting daily airstrikes against LH and Palestinian militia targets along the northern Israeli border, which may have contributed to the reduced rate of attacks.[30] LH acknowledged that IDF airstrikes have killed at least 44 of its fighters since October 9, including 30 fighters since October 21.[31] Israeli airstrikes specifically targeting LH anti-tank guided missile cells on October 25 killed eight LH fighters before they could fire their missiles and hit Israeli targets.[32]

It is noteworthy that the decreased rate of attacks occurred immediately after LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah held a coordination and planning meeting with Hamas Deputy Political Bureau Chairman Saleh al Arouri and PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah in Beirut on October 24.

[u]Iran and Axis of Resistance[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed three attacks on US military positions in Iraq and Syria. The group conducted one-way drone attacks on US positions at Ain al Asad airbase and Erbil International Airport on October 25 and 26.[34] The group also conducted a rocket attack on a US base near Hasakah in northeastern Syria on October 26.[35] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed 20 of the 22 reported attacks on US forces in the Middle East since October 18. The US force presence in Iraq and Syria is essential to US efforts to counter ISIS.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq reaffirmed on October 26 their commitment to waging a long-term fight against the United States, indicating that the group will conduct additional attacks in the coming days. Kataib Hezbollah (KH) leader Abdul Ali al Askari stated that the group is prepared to fight the United States ”for years.”[36] Asaib Ahl al Haq leader Qais Khazali stated that Iraqi militias are attacking the United States for its support for Israel.

A senior Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow and met with Russian and Iranian officials on October 26.[38] Hamas’ International Relation Office head and political bureau member Musa Abu Marzouk led the delegation, which also included Health Minister of the Gaza Strip Basem Naim.[39] The delegation held a joint meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister and Special Representative for the Middle East Mikhail Bogdanov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. Hamas leaders issued statements around the visit praising Russia’s stance toward the Israel-Hamas war. Russia has framed itself as a possible mediator between Israel and Hamas and submitted a UN resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire on October 16. The UN resolution failed to mention Hamas by name.[40] The Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry condemned Russia’s invitation to Hamas on October 26.[41]CTP-ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is already exploiting and will likely continue to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support for and attention to Ukraine.[42] A senior Hamas delegation most recently visited Moscow in March 2023 amid strained tensions between Russia and Israel over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Iranian officials and media are dismissing US calls for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to show restraint in the Hamas-Israel war. The Biden administration has sent Iran at least two messages since October 7, expressing its desire to avoid a regional war and calling on Iran to show restraint and to urge its proxy militias to do the same.[44] US President Joe Biden also issued a direct warning to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on October 25, stating that the United States will respond to continued attacks on US forces in the Middle East.[45] Iranian Vice President for Political Affairs Mohammad Jamshidi dismissed the Biden administration’s messages, describing the warnings against regional escalation as “nothing but requests.”[46] An unidentified source separately told Iranian state media on October 26 that the United States’ supply of military equipment to Israel contradicts US calls for restraint.[47] The source added that Iran cannot “order or forbid regional resistance groups [from acting.]”

The narrative that Iran cannot control its proxy and partner militias in the Axis of Resistance is an Iranian information operation meant to generate plausible deniability for Iranian-led actions in the Middle East and obfuscate Tehran’s responsibility.[49] This narrative has repeatedly proven false.

• CTP-ISW reported in June 2023, for example, that Iraqi proxies stopped threatening to attack US forces following IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani’s visit to Baghdad that month.[50] The cessation of proxy threats suggested that Ghaani had directed the proxies to deescalate.
• Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Major General Gholam Ali Rashid stated on October 26 that the Axis of Resistance in the “north, east, and south” of Israel would support Hamas in the event of an Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[51] Rashid is a member of Iran’s IRGC command network, a small group of seinor leaders who dominate the IRGC and have close connections stemming from the Iran-Iraq War.[52] Rashid has personal connections to other senior members of Iran’s military leadership, such as former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari.[53] The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters is the highest Iranian operational headquarters and is responsible for wartime operations. The headquarters, along with the Armed Forces General Staff, commands, controls, coordinates, and supports the three branches of Iran’s armed forces.[54] The commanders of these branches—the Artesh, IRGC, and Law Enforcement Command—relay orders from the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters to their operational forces.[55] Statements by Rashid carry more weight than those by IRGC officers in lesser posts.
• Iran has facilitated the expansion of the Hamas-Israel war since October 7. Iran has directed its proxy and partner militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to attack US and Israeli targets.[56] The militias have used weapons supplied by Iran in some of their attacks on US military positions.[57] Iran has historically provided extensive material and financial support as well as training to its proxies in the region. The Washington Post reported on October 9 that Iran provided Hamas fighters with training and weapons prior to the October 7 attack.[58] The IRGC Quds Force has separately coordinated the deployment of hundreds of Iranian-backed militants in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria since the war began.[59] These militants include military engineers and missile experts, among others.[60] Israel has furthermore conducted several airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports since October 12 and indicated that the airstrikes are meant to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.[61]
Iran’s claims are part of its ongoing information operation to deflect responsibility for any further escalation of the conflict away from Iran. The Iranian regime has repeatedly accused the United States of aggravating the conflict while framing itself as a promoter of peace. Iran has additionally set informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war and deflect any responsibility from itself, as CTP-ISW previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-26-2023

Israel has now start the offensive to eliminate Hamas, now a ceasefire is crazy!

UN resolution calls for 'humanitarian ceasefire'. Why did the Netherlands abstain from voting?
WAR ISRAEL AND HAMASThe UN countries have issued a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. 120 countries voted in favor, but the Netherlands abstained.

The resolution, tabled by Jordan, calls for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. The text also calls for protecting civilians and allowing humanitarian goods for civilians into Gaza. That call was accepted with 120 votes in favor, more than two-thirds of the countries in the UN.

Anyone who looks at Israel's troops and weapon systems concludes: this is a military giant
The Netherlands did not vote in favor and was one of 45 countries that abstained. This also applies to Germany, Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, among others. The Dutch ambassador to the UN in New York, Joke Brandt, emphasized in an explanation the importance of pauses in fighting, aid supplies and the sharp condemnation of 'all acts of violence against Palestinian and Israeli civilians'. “But as far as we are concerned, important elements are missing from the text,” she said.

The main point is that the text does not state that Israel has the right to defend itself. The Netherlands also believes there is insufficient emphasis on the release of all hostages. A Canadian amendment to also condemn the Hamas terror attack and to include in the text the need to release the Israeli hostages did not receive sufficient support.
\
The fact that the Netherlands does not vote in favor of the call to lay down arms is a sensitive issue among staff at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Last week, a group of 350 civil servants criticized the Dutch position in the conflict in a letter to outgoing ministers Hanke Bruins Slot (CDA) and Liesje Schreinemacher (VVD). The Netherlands is damaging its international credibility "by abandoning the foundations of international law in the case of Gaza," they write, NRC reported . The officials also call for a ceasefire 'strongly'.

Belgium, France and Norway, among others, did agree to the UN resolution. Belgium also "deeply regrets" that important points are missing from the text, Ambassador Philippe Kridelka said in the UN hall, but decided to vote in favor anyway. Kridelka also wanted to read in the call that Israel has the right to defend itself. French Ambassador Nicolas de Rivière also indicated that he misses that point, but that his country votes in favor, "because nothing can justify the suffering of citizens."

The fact that the General Assembly of all countries in the UN adopts a resolution does not have immediate consequences, but serves as a strong signal from the world to the warring parties in a war. Europe turned out to be very divided, as Austria, the Czech Republic and Hungary voted outright against it. A total of 14 countries voted against.

Secretary General António Guterres also spread the call for a 'humanitarian ceasefire' via social media. “Everyone must take responsibility,” he writes. “This is a moment of truth. History will judge us all.”

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 28, 2023
Oct 28, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 28, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 3:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to fire rockets at Dimona for the first time since the war started.
2. Israeli ground forces advanced into the Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to attack advancing IDF forces in Beit Hanoun and east of Bureij. Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are framing the IDF advances into the Gaza Strip as a failure likely to encourage civilians to stay rather than try to evacuate toward the southern part of the strip.
3. The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—appeared to implicitly call for further mobilization and violence against Israel in the West Bank after the IDF conducted ground operations into the Gaza Strip. Iranian and Palestinian sources are describing Israeli settlers in the West Bank as legitimate military targets. Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces and held large, anti-Israel demonstrations at their usual rate across the West Bank.
4. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 12 attacks into Israel as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.
5. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed to attack US forces at al Tanf Garrison in eastern Syria.
6. Iran is conducting a messaging campaign (1) to signal to the United States the potential for further Iranian-backed attacks against US forces in the region and (2) to reassure members of its Axis of Resistance, especially LH, of Iran’s commitment to supporting them in the event that the United States enters the war in support of Israel.
7. IRGC-affiliated media is continuing to provide the informational cover for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to conduct attacks against US positions on the false grounds that the United States is directing Israeli operations into the Gaza Strip.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 28. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for nine indirect fire attacks. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to fire rockets at Dimona for the first time since the war started.[1] Israeli news reported that the Iron Dome air defense system intercepted three of the rockets and one fell in an open area.[2] The Israeli Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center is based outside of Dimona in southern Israel.[3] Iran and its Axis of Resistance have threatened to attack the facility previously, which has prompted Israel to reinforce the reactor, according to the head of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission head.[4] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—separately claimed responsibility for nine mortar and rocket attacks.

Israeli Ground Operations in the Gaza Strip

Israeli ground forces advanced into the Gaza Strip on October 27.IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said IDF ground forces supported by heavy fire entered the Gaza Strip to dismantle Hamas, secure the border, and return hostages.[6] IDF Southern Command Fire Center Commander Lieutenant Colonel Gilad Keinan stated that Israel is using fire “from the air, from the ground, or from the underground.”[7] IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that Israeli troops entered the northern Gaza Strip with ground troops, armor, and artillery.[8] The IDF released footage of tanks entering along the beach in the northwestern Gaza Strip.[9] Hagari added that the ground operation was supported by "very significant, massive attacks from the sea."[10] The IDF Air Force struck 150 underground targets in the northern Gaza Strip overnight, which included striking Hamas militants, tunnels, and other subterranean infrastructure.[11] Hamas maintains around 480 kilometers of tunnels under the strip.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed to attack advancing IDF forces in Beit Hanoun and east of Bureij overnight.[13] Hamas official Ali Bakara said Palestinian militants used anti-tank missiles to repel the attack and that it has been preparing defensive plans since the beginning of the battle.[14] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said overnight that Israel completed a phase in the war and that Israel will continue to be strong and precise.[15] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the locations of these Israeli ground operations.

Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are framing the IDF advances into the Gaza Strip as a failure likely to encourage civilians to stay rather than try to evacuate toward the southern part of the strip. • • Hamas claimed that the Israeli ground attack into the Gaza Strip was a failure.[16] A Saraya al Quds official said that the IDF received painful strikes on the points of advance.[17] Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine militant wing spokesman Abu Jamal said the IDF suffered heavy losses.[18] An Israeli spokesperson said Israel had no casualties in Friday night's fighting.[19]

• Israel issued an urgent message for residents of the Gaza Strip and Gaza City to temporarily relocate south until intense hostilities end.[20] Israel dropped flyers in the northern part of the strip with a similar message. Hamas previously urged locals to stay in Gaza, describing the Israeli warnings on October 12 as “psychological warfare” against Palestinians.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Hamas continues to use civilians as human shields, which intentionally puts these civilians in harm's way, to protect Hamas’ military infrastructure and weapons.[21] Civilians leaving the northern Gaza Strip en masse would risk depriving Hamas of the ability to use regular civilian activity to mask its military activities.

Iranian officials and media continued to argue on October 28 that Israeli ground operations into the Gaza Strip are failing and will not achieve their aim of destroying Hamas. IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency claimed that on October 27 that the IDF ground operations inside the Gaza Strip were unsuccessful.[22] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency similarly argued that Israel has had to repeatedly retreat after conducting limited operations inside the Gaza Strip and that Israel has not been able to do much more than launch a media campaign justifying these retreats.[23] State-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency recirculated Hamas’ statement that the IDF operations failed as Hamas inflicted significant casualties and damage on the IDF.[24] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami argued that Israel is incapable of defeating Hamas, claiming that the Gaza Strip will become the grave for many Israeli soldiers.[25]

This Iranian messaging ignores the fact that much of the IDF activity into the Gaza Strip in recent days had been raids.[26] US military doctrine defines a raid as “an operation to temporarily seize an area in order to secure information, confuse an enemy, capture personnel or equipment, or to destroy a capability culminating with a planned withdrawal.”[27] The IDF withdrawals after their operations were consistent with the US military doctrinal definition of a raid, which includes a planned retrograde at the end of the mission.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—appeared to implicitly call for further mobilization and violence against Israel in the West Bank after the IDF conducted ground operations into the Gaza Strip on October 27. The group posted on its Telegram for the first time since October 25, saying “long live jihad.”[28] The Lions’ Den has repeatedly called for mobilization in the West Bank in support of Hamas since the war began. The group claims to be unaffiliated with any specific Palestinian faction.[29] The Lions’ Den released a statement indicating increasing alignment with Hamas on October 25, however.[30] CTP-ISW previously reported that the group appeared to briefly trigger an uptick in violence after previous calls to mobilize.

Iranian and Palestinian sources are describing Israeli settlers in the West Bank as legitimate military targets. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s official website pushed the narrative that Israeli settlers are armed and contribute to Israel’s “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians on October 27.[31] Hamas Political Bureau member Musa Dudin similarly stated on October 27 that “it is time for the West Bank to attack the security of the settlements.”[32] The statements come amid heightened tension between Palestinians and settlers in the West Bank.[33] The Palestinian Health Ministry in the West Bank said an Israeli settler shot and killed a Palestinian on October 28.[34] Hamas responded to the shooting on Telegram, hailing the Palestinian as a martyr, who was killed “during the confrontations of the al Aqsa Flood battle.”

Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces and held large, anti-Israel demonstrations at their usual rate across the West Bank on October 28. CTP-ISW recorded 11 distinct clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces across the West Bank. CTP-ISW recorded four instances of Palestinian militants using IEDs, which has become increasingly common since October 18.[36] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade's Rapid Response Groups claimed to attack IDF soldiers stationed at Netzanei Oz on the border between Israel and the West Bank.[37]
CTP-ISW recorded five anti-Israel demonstrations in major cities across the West Bank, including Nablus, Jenin, Ramallah, and Tulkarm. Many shops closed in Jenin as part of a general strike against Israeli attacks into the Gaza Strip.[38] Local Telegram channels called for general mobilization in the West Bank on October 28, which is consistent with repeated Hamas calls for further resistance in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 12 attacks into Israel as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. LH claimed five anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) and rocket attacks on IDF positions along the border with Lebanon on October 28, which is consistent with its rate of attacks prior to October 26.[40] The IDF responded with multiple airstrikes and artillery strikes into southern Lebanon and on the Israel-Lebanon border, including against LH ATGM squads.[41] LH claimed that one of its attacks caused IDF casualties along the border.[42] LH fired an Iranian-designed 358 surface-to-air missile at an Israeli drone on October 28.[43] IDF air defense intercepted the missile over Tiberias in northern Israel.[44] The 358 missile is an Iranian-origin missile widely used by the Houthi movement in Yemen.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the
United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed to attack US forces at al Tanf Garrison (ATG) in eastern Syria on October 27 The group claimed to attack the base with two one-way attack drones, marking the group’s third attack on ATG since October 19.[47] Local media reported two other unclaimed drone and rocket attacks on US forces stationed at bases in eastern and northeastern Syria.[48] Iranian-backed militias were responsible for these attacks, according to local anti-Syrian regime media.[49] Iranian-backed militias transported short range rockets to a town two miles from a US base in Deir ez Zor Province on October 28.[50] This is the eleventh consecutive day of Iranian-backed militia attacks on US forces in the Middle East. All three attacks occurred after Israel’s expanded operation into the Gaza Strip.

Iran is conducting a messaging campaign (1) to signal to the United States the potential for further Iranian-backed attacks against US forces in the region and (2) to reassure members of its Axis of Resistance, especially LH, of Iran’s commitment to supporting them in the event that the United States enters the war in support of Israel.

• Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned on October 27 that continued US support to Israel will result in the “opening of new fronts against the United States,” according to Bloomberg TV.[52] Abdollahian spoke with Bloomberg TV, as well as other Western outlets, while visiting New York City for an emergency UNGA session on the Israel-Hamas war.[53] Iranian state media heavily recirculated the headline of “new fronts against the United States” in its coverage of Abdollahian’s interview.[54] This warning diverges slightly from his previous warnings, which have mentioned the possibility for the war to expand geographically but had not framed this expansion as directed specifically against the United States.[55] Abdollahian separately pushed during his interviews with Western outlets the Iranian information operation asserting that the United States and Israel would be responsible for any further escalation and expansion of the war. Abdollahian stated in his interview with NPR on October 27, for example, that the continuation of Israeli attacks on Hamas could drive Iranian-backed Lebanese and Palestinian groups to implement plans “more powerful and deeper than what [the United States] has witnessed.”[56] The narrative that the United States and Israel would be responsible for the escalation of the war ignores the fact that Iran has already facilitated the expansion of this war to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen by directing its proxy and partner militias in these countries to attack US and Israeli targets.
• IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Ramazan Sharif warned of further attacks on US positions in the region during an interview with LH-affiliated al Mayadeen on October 28.[57] Sharif warned that “those who cannot reach Israel [in battle] may be able to reach the US forces that are managing this war.”[58] He added that Iran is monitoring US bases in the region and US missile transfers to Israel. Al Mayadeen published the interview in Arabic and English, suggesting that Sharif meant to address local and Western audiences.[59] Sharif’s interview was firstly likely part of Iranian efforts to deter the United States from providing further military support to Israel. Sharif also likely sought to reassure the Axis of Resistance that Iran would support them, especially LH, in light of reports that the United States would intervene if LH attacked Israel.

IRGC-affiliated media is continuing to provide the informational cover for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to conduct attacks against US positions on the false grounds that the United States is directing Israeli operations into the Gaza Strip. Tasnim and Fars news agencies claimed that 5,000 American soldiers participated in the IDF’s October 27 ground operations into the Gaza Strip.[61] Tasnim also repeated its earlier claim from October 16 that American military commanders have taken over command of Israeli operations in the area.[62] Several elements in Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including various Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement, have threatened to attack the United States and Israel if the United States intervenes in support of Israel.

The Artesh—Iran's conventional military—held its annual exercise near Esfahan on October 27-28. The Artesh regularly holds this exercise around the same time every year.[63] Senior armed forces officials assessed the Artesh’s missile, drone, armored combat, electronic warfare, helicopter transport, and engineering capabilities.[64] The Artesh also unveiled a series of purportedly new capabilities, including “a multi-rotor smart bomber,” a cruise-missile equipped helicopter, and other unspecified “operational and tactical equipment.”[65] Artesh Ground Forces Passive Defense and Engineering Deputy Commander Brigadier General Miser Arjoumandi stated that the Artesh implemented projects for a “five-kilometer fire wall” for coastal defense operations.[66] Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Deputy Coordinator Brigadier General Ali Shadmani assessed that the Artesh Ground Forces are in “excellent” condition in all areas on the sidelines of the exercise on October 28.[67] Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari similarly stated that the Artesh is fully prepared for defending Iran’s borders and responding to any threats.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-28-2023

Herzog says German-Israeli Shani Louk found beheaded after being taken to Gaza

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/isra...sraeli-shani-louk-found-beheaded-in-gaza

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 30, 2023
Oct 30, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 30, 2023

Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


Key Takeaways:[/u]

1. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel at a rate consistent with the rate observed on October 29.
2. Israeli forces conducted a route clearance operation moving from near Juhor ad Dik to the Salah al Din road in the Gaza Strip before withdrawing.
3. Israeli forces conducted an extensive operation targeting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders and infrastructure in Jenin. CTP-ISW has recorded noteworthy Palestinian militant activity around Jenin in recent months.
4. CTP-ISW recorded three additional clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces.
5. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 10 attacks into Israel.
6. LH leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to give a speech on Friday, November 3, according to LH media. This planned speech is noteworthy given that Nasrallah has not yet made a public statement on the Israel-Hamas war.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two separate rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria.
8. Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser and former IRGC Commander Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi met with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin on the sidelines of the 10th Common Security and Lasting Peace forum in Beijing.

[u]Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel on October 30 at a rate consistent with the rate observed on October 29. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for eight indirect fire attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another eight indirect fire attacks.

Israeli forces conducted a route clearance operation moving from near Juhor ad Dik to the Salah al Din road in the Gaza Strip before withdrawing.[3] Israeli forces, including at least one bulldozer and other armor, held a position on the Salah al Din road on October 30.[4] Israeli forces withdrew after a brief period.[5] Palestinian sources and the IDF reported that Palestinian fighters engaged IDF armor east of Zaytoun neighborhood, which is just west of Salah al Din road.[6] The Salah al Din road is an important north-south thoroughfare running through the entirety of the strip. This Israeli operation is consistent with Israeli military experts’ characterization of IDF tactics, which involve small IDF units taking “limited areas” before following up with additional ground forces and armor.

Palestinian media, Hamas, and Axis of Resistance media claimed that the al Qassem Brigades and National Resistance Brigades engaged IDF forces in the northwestern Gaza Strip on October 30. The National Resistance Brigades is the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Hamas claimed that the al Qassem Brigades used mortars, snipers, anti-tank fire, and machine guns to target IDF units moving northwest of Beit Lahia.[8] The National Resistance Brigades mortared Israeli vehicles attempting to enter the strip in the northwest, according to the reports’ claims.[9] The al Qassem Brigades also used anti-tank fire and machine guns against IDF forces in the northwestern Gaza Strip on October 30.[10]

Hamas is continuing its information operation claiming that the Palestinian militants are defeating the IDF and thwarting the IDF’s plan.[11] The IDF is intentionally moving slowly to take “limited areas” with small forces before following them up with additional ground forces.[12]

Israeli special operations forces and Shin Bet personnel rescued IDF Private Uri Magidish on October 29 during a ground operation in the Gaza Strip.[13] The Israeli defense minister said that Israel planned the operation for “days” and that the operation was held in a “relatively remote area in the northern Gaza Strip.”

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces conducted an extensive operation targeting Hamas and PIJ leaders and infrastructure in Jenin on October 30. The raid is part of the Israeli effort to degrade Hamas and PIJ capabilities in the West Bank. Israeli media reported the operation killed senior PIJ commander and founder of the Jenin Battalion Wiam Iyad Hanon.[16] The Jenin Battalion is an amalgamation of militia groups based in Jenin but most heavily associated with PIJ.[17] CTP-ISW recorded two claims of Palestinian militants using IEDs in Jenin on October 30.[18] PIJ claimed that the IEDs damaged Israeli armored vehicles.[19] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the claims of damage or causalities caused by the IED attacks.

CTP-ISW has recorded noteworthy Palestinian militant activity around Jenin in recent months. PIJ stated on October 13 that the group is prioritizing attacking Israeli forces and infrastructure around Jenin.[20] PIJ’s branch in Jenin separately announced in July 2023 that they have explosively formed penetrators (EFP), which are an Iranian-designed explosive device that Iranian-backed militias—with Iranian direction—used extensively against US forces in Iraq.

CTP-ISW recorded three additional clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces on October 30.[22] The IDF stated it arrested 38 Hamas members and 13 other militants while confiscating weapons across the West Bank.[23] CTP-ISW recorded a single anti-Israel demonstration in Ramallah compared to three the day prior.[24] It is noteworthy that there has been no significant inflection in anti-Israel activity in the West Bank since the IDF began ground operations into the Gaza Strip on October 27.

Shin Bet warned the Israeli government that continued settler attacks could lead to an eruption of violence in the West Bank, according to Israeli media. Shin Bet head Ronen Bar warned on October 30 that an increase in Israeli settlers attacking Palestinians risks harming the war effort. US administration officials have also expressed concern over rising settler violence.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel.

The PIJ attack is especially noteworthy given the closeness of the group to Iran and LH. Tehran and LH have provided various forms of support, including funding and military equipment and training, to PIJ for decades.[31] LH almost certainly permits Palestinian militant groups, such as PIJ, to conduct attacks from southern Lebanon given the extent to which LH controls the area and coordinates with the other Iranian-backed groups operating there.

A Syrian Arab Army (SAA) unit fired two rockets into the Golan Heights on October 29, according to local Syrian media. The report claimed that the rockets landed in an open field. The IDF conducted airstrikes against the SAA 112th Brigade near Nawa, southern Syria, shortly after the rocket fire.

LH leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to give a speech on Friday, November 3, according to LH media.[34] This planned speech is noteworthy given that Nasrallah has not yet made a public statement on the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah’s only major appearance since the war began was him attending a coordination and planning meeting with senior Hamas and PIJ leaders in Beirut on October 25.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two separate rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria on October 30.[36] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsibility for 26 attacks on US forces in the Middle East since October 18.

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a rocket attack targeting Conoco Mission Support Site on October 30.[37] This is the third attack on this location that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed since October 18. Syria-based al Sharqiya News reported that the group launched the attack from a neighborhood within Deir ez Zor City controlled by Iranian-backed militias.[38]
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a rocket attack on Ain al Asad airbase on October 30.[39] This is the eighth attack on Ain al Asad airbase that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed since October 18.

UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported on October 30 that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani is coordinating Axis of Resistance activities against Israel from a joint operations center in Beirut.[40] Ghaani traveled to Beirut on October 20 where he has since been stationed and met and coordinated with LH and Palestinian militia leaders, according to the report.[41] Ghaani previously visited Syria to direct Iranian-affiliated militias to prepare to open a second front against Israel on October 15, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

Syria-based, anti-Iran news outlet Eye of Euphrates released a report detailing the various Iranian-backed militias responsible for conducting attacks on US forces in the Middle East since October 189. The article reported that the most senior IRGC Commander in Syria, Hajj Askar, has coordinated all attacks on US forces in Syria with the local IRGC commanders in eastern Syria through a joint operations room based in Sayyida Zainab, Rif Dimashq Province. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this report, although it is consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous reporting.

• Eye of Euphrates reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) were responsible for conducting at least one of the one-way drone strikes targeting al Tanf Garrison in eastern Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, of which KH and AAH are both members, has claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks on Al Tanf Garrison since October 18.[44]
• Eye of Euphrates reported that the leader of the Iranian-affiliated Akidat militia, Hashem al Sattem, armed and directed Iranian sleeper cells active in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-held territory to conduct strikes on US forces stationed at al Omar oil field. CTP-ISW previously reported on Iranian efforts to establish sleeper cells in SDF-held territory and warned that these cells possessed the capabilities to target US forces in eastern Syria.[45] CTP-ISW has recorded at least one attack targeting US forces stationed at al Omar oil field since October 18.[46]
• The article explained that Iranian-backed Syrian Hezbollah militants, led by Mohammad Amin Hussein al Raja and Tariq al Mayouf, and the Iranian-affiliated Sons of Jazira and Euphrates, led by Nawaf Ragheb al Bashir, conducted rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed at Conoco. According to Eye of Euphrates, the militants carried out attacks from Mazloum and Marat in Deir ez Zor Province. CTP-ISW has recorded two attacks targeting US forces stationed at Conoco Mission Support Site since October 18.

Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Vahid Jalal Zadeh discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Russian parliamentarians in Moscow on October 30.[48] Jalal Zadeh met with the following individuals:

• Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky
• Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrey Kartapolov
• Russian State Duma member Alexander Babakov
• Russian Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Kostantin Kosachev
Jalal Zadeh called on Russia to cooperate with Iran to stop Israeli “crimes” against Palestinians.[49] Jalal Zadeh’s visit to Moscow follows Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani’s October 26-27 visit to Moscow, in which he met with senior Hamas and Russian officials.[50] Jalal Zadeh will travel to Turkey after concluding his trip to Russia.

Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser and former IRGC Commander Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi met with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin on the sidelines of the 10th Common Security and Lasting Peace Forum in Beijing on October 30.[51] Iranian state media reported that the two officials discussed unspecified military cooperation.[52] Khrenin previously traveled to Tehran on July 31 to August 1 to discuss defense industry cooperation, establishing military attaches between Belarus and Iran, and conducting joint exercises. Khrenin met with Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani during the visit. [53] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Khrenin may have discussed establishing Shahed one-way attack drone factories in Belarus to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[54]

Iranian state media separately reported that Safavi will meet with other unspecified commanders and officials attending the forum to improve cultural, economic, and political ties.[55] Safavi stated that he seeks to represent the “voice of the oppressed people of Gaza” during his meetings and speech at the forum.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-30-2023

Israel's representative on the United Nations Security Council, Gilad Erdan, wore a Star of David at a meeting on Monday. He stated that he would only remove them if the Council condemned Hamas's atrocities.

"Some of you have learned nothing in the last 80 years. Some of you have forgotten why this body was created," he told those gathered at the Security Council.

According to Erdan, the Security Council remained silent after Hamas killed more than 1,300 Israelis and took 230 people hostage on October 7. The Security Council has not yet adopted a single resolution on the conflict, because there is division over a ceasefire and over condemnation of Hamas' horrific attack and Israel's extremely violent response to it.

These guys give Israel a bad name and this will backfire 100%.

Ultranationalist MK Tzvi Succot appointed head of Knesset West Bank subcommittee
Opposition lawmakers warn settlement activist will inflame tensions in the West Bank amid a wave of settler violence against Palestinians

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ultra...-head-of-knesset-west-bank-subcommittee/

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 1, 2023
Nov 1, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, November 1, 2023

Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Peter Mills, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

November 1, 2023: 2pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


Key Takeaways:

1. Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated al Mayadeen reported that an Israeli armored unit advanced from the northwestern Gaza Strip south along the coast.
2. Axis of Resistance and Palestinian media reported that the al Qassem Brigades clashed with an IDF unit in Beit Hanoun.
3. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel at their usual rate. Multiple Palestinian militias appeared to conduct joint indirect fire attacks on locations in Israel, which would suggest greater coordination between these groups.
4. Anti-Israel militancy and protest activity in the West Bank returned to regular levels after surging on October 31. The Lions’ Den released a statement calling for further anti-Israel militancy in the West Bank.
5. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted six attacks into Israel as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Syria.
7. Iran and LH are continuing to promote the expectation in the information space that LH will announce some kind of escalation against Israel on November 3.
8. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are signaling that they may escalate against US forces in Iraq and Syria, as LH similarly messages against Israel.
9. The Houthi movement may have conducted an attack targeting southern Israel, which would mark the fourth attempted Houthi attack on Israel since the war began.
10. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)-affiliated al Mayadeen reported that an Israeli armored unit advanced from the northwestern Gaza Strip south along the coast to Salah Khalaf Street and later attempted to move east, inland, to al Nasr Street and al Toum Street.[1] The commander of the IDF 162nd Division stated that Israeli forces had reached “the gates of Gaza City,” possibly corroborating this reporting.

Axis of Resistance and Palestinian media reported that the al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—clashed with an IDF unit in Beit Hanoun on November 1. The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its militants destroyed at least four Israeli Merkava tanks with Yasin-105 anti-tank weapons.[3] The al Qassem Brigades also claimed to have bombed a gathering of IDF soldiers near Beit Hanoun using a quadcopter drone.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that its fighters fought an IDF unit in Karamah, southwest Beit Lahia.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its militants engaged Israeli forces attempting to enter the Zaytoun neighborhood west of Gaza City. The al Quds Brigades militants reportedly fired Yasin-105 anti-tank weapons and conducted a mortar attack on advancing Israeli forces.[5] Palestinian media reported that militants were successful in destroying an Israeli armored personnel carrier during the fighting.[6] The al Quds Brigades claimed that its forces supported the fighting at Zaytoun and caused an unspecified number of Israeli casualties.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel at their usual rate on November 1. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for eight indirect fire attacks.[8] The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for another three indirect fire attacks.[9] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—claimed to launch mortars into southern Israel.[10] Palestinian media reported that the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—the self-claimed militant wing of Fatah— conducted three rocket attacks.[11]

Multiple Palestinian militias appeared to conduct joint indirect fire attacks on locations in Israel, which would suggest greater coordination between these groups. The al Qassem Brigades and Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades independently claimed mortar and rocket attacks on Nirim, southern Israel, at the same time.[12] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades jointly claimed mortar attacks on the Erez crossing into the Gaza Strip.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Anti-Israel militancy and protest activity in the West Bank returned to regular levels on November 1, after surging the day prior. CTP-ISW recorded five small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces, and two instances of Palestinian militants conducting IED attacks in the West Bank.[14] Israeli forces also uncovered buried IEDs in the Jenin refugee camp.[15] CTP-ISW recorded five demonstrations in support of the Gaza Strip.[16] Demonstrators in Nablus and Ramallah flew Hamas flags.

The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—released a statement on October 31 calling for further anti-Israel militancy in the West Bank.[18] The group reiterated its calls for mobilization and attacks against Israeli targets. The group also suggested that Israel could face a multi-front escalation on November 3, likely in reference to Hassan Nasrallah’s planned speech that day.[19] CTP-ISW previously noted that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are creating the expectation in the information environment that Nasrallah will announce some kind of escalation on November 3, which could include Hezbollah increasing its rate of attacks or using more advanced military systems against Israel.[20] The Lions’ Den has indicated growing alignment with Hamas in recent days, as CTP-ISW previously reported, even though the group has historically claimed that it is not affiliated with any specific Palestinian faction.

Israeli forces arrested Fatah Secretary General in Jenin Ata Abu Ramila in an overnight raid on November 1.[22] Ramila is one of the few high-level Fatah officials whom Israeli forces have arrested since October 7.[23] The IDF accused Ramila of inciting, promoting, and financing terrorism in Jenin, which is a hotspot for Palestinian militant activity in the West Bank.[24] Ata Abu Ramila previously called for all Palestinian militias to unite and fight together against Israel in January 2023.[25] Israel continued raids throughout the West Bank, arresting 46 people affiliated with Hamas and other West Bank militias on November 1.[26] Israeli forces have arrested 1,830 people in the West Bank since October 7, according to Palestinian Authority media Wafa.[27] CTP-ISW cannot verify the accuracy of this report.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants, including LH, conducted six attacks into Israel on November 1 as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. LH claimed four indirect fire and anti-tank missile attacks on IDF positions in northern Israel.[28] Unknown militants conducted two indirect fire and anti-tank missile attacks into northern Israel as well.[29] The IDF continues to conduct airstrikes and artillery strikes on Iranian-backed militants, who are attempting to launch indirect fire from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Syria on November 1. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed it fired two drones targeting US forces at the al Tanf Garrison in southeastern Syria and achieved “direct hits.”[31] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has attacked al Tanf Garrison four times since October 18. The group has conducted 27 total attacks on US forces in the Middle East since October 18.

Iran and LH are continuing to promote the expectation in the information space that LH will announce some kind of escalation against Israel on November 3. CTP-ISW previously reported that LH has released two dramatic videos in recent days ahead of LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s planned speech on November 3, creating the expectation of a significant announcement on the Israel-Hamas war.[32] This speech is significant in that it will be Nasrallah’s first public statement on the war. Iranian state media has further amplified the news of the upcoming speech and the dramatic videos, describing them as a “sign of future events.”[33]

• Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati held a phone call with LH Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem on October 31 for further political coordination.[34] Velayati praised Nasrallah’s leadership and wished him success in his fight against Israel, according to Iranian state media.
• Unidentified LH members published an open letter on November 1, expressing solidarity with Palestinian militants fighting Israel in the Gaza Strip.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are signaling that they may escalate against US forces in Iraq and Syria, as LH similarly messages against Israel. Three Iranian-backed Iraqi militias released statements on November 1 to escalate their attacks on US military positions. The leader of Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba said that the Islamic resistance is liberating Iraq militarily and that “what is coming is greater.”[36] Ashab al Kahf responded to Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, quoting the statement and saying that Ashab al Kahf will strike American bases “until our land is liberated.”[37] Saraya Awlia al Dam similarly said that it is ready to fight against the “aggression in Iraq and in other arenas.”[38] All three groups have attacked the US forces in Iraq previously.[39] The groups are affiliated with Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq, which is a member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.

The Houthi movement may have conducted an attack targeting southern Israel overnight on October 31, which would mark the fourth attempted Houthi attack on Israel since the war began. The IDF said that it intercepted an “aerial attack” over the Red Sea but that there was no threat to civilians and the attack did not enter Israeli territory.[41] Local journalists and social media accounts reported that the attack was intercepted near Eilat in southern Israel.[42] A Houthi Shura Council member posted “Eilat” in Arabic and Hebrew on X (Twitter) shortly before the IDF confirmed an attack.[43] The attack came after the Houthis launched drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles targeting Israel earlier on October 31 and threatened more attacks.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on November 1.[45] Abdollahian praised Erdogan’s “strong and accurate positions” on the Israel-Hamas war and announced that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will soon travel to Turkey. Erdogan has expressed strong support for Hamas in recent days, describing the Palestinian militia as a “liberation group” on October 25 and organizing a pro-Palestine rally in Istanbul on October 28.[46] Abdollahian’s visit to Turkey is likely part of Iran’s ongoing effort to unite Muslim countries against Israel. Iran has historically—and especially since the start of the war on October 7—sought to rally Muslim countries against Israel and frame itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[47] Abdollahian has traveled to Turkey four times since August 2021 and last traveled to Turkey in March 2023 to evaluate the impacts and damage of the February 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei discussed the Israel-Hamas war with a group of students on November 1, marking the fifth time he has publicly discussed the war since October 7.[49] Khamenei called on Muslim countries to impose an oil and food embargo on Israel, echoing previous calls from other Iranian officials, such as Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, to impose such an embargo.[50] Khamenei also warned Muslim countries that Israel may threaten them in the future if they do not help Hamas defeat Israel. Khamenei repeated previous Iranian claims that Israel does not care about Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip and that the United States is directing Israel’s war against Hamas.[51] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Hamas and its allies are preparing the information environment to blame Israel for the possible deaths of hostages in the Gaza Strip, especially if Hamas begins killing those hostages.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-1-2023

Totally agree. Evil exists in every corner.

waiting for nasrallah's speech tomorrow
if he declares a war then i'm there so... well i need to defend my people.

in less then 24 hours i might be inside syria or lebanon fighting.
life's crazy

Israeli Army has now completely surrounded Gaza City, where most Hamas fighters are holed up this will be a huge siege.

yes
we suffered some losses too
and it's not even the beginning yet.
because the underground tunnels are where the real fighting will be.
they are all hiding there, and in the hospitals.

I saw some Hamas propaganda footage of (Iranian) drones and anti tank rockets killing Israelis. Hamas is also well prepared for the battle.

November 22 we have national elections in Holland right and left are so divided about Israel.

The radio debate, which lasted more than two hours, started with a discussion about the situation in Gaza, in which Wilders and Yesilgöz were more on the same page. Frans Timmermans – the third participant in this debate – stated that he thinks it is time for a ceasefire. He also said he found Israel's response disproportionate. “This does not help Israel either, it is a gift to Hamas,” he said.

PVV leader Geert Wilders called that comment 'shocking': “They did not attack, they were attacked. I think they should hit back hard, and I think that will be done proportionately.”

VVD party leader Dilan Yesilgöz defended the Netherlands' decision not to vote for a ceasefire in the UN context. “Israel is surrounded by terrorist organizations. Hamas, Hezbollah. This does not stop with Israel,” Yesilgöz said about the danger posed by these terrorist organizations. “We shouldn't pretend that that doesn't exist.”

Yes it's so complicated because it's a holy land and Jerusalem in particular for Jews, Muslims and Christians.

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 3, 2023
Nov 3, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, November 3, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Brian Carter, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Sydney White, Riley Bailey and Frederick W. Kagan

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Contributor: James Cary

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias targeted IDF ground forces with small arms, anti-tank fire, and indirect fire in the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israeli territory, primarily in Southern Israel.
3. Palestinian militants engaged Israeli forces in small arms and IED attacks in the Jenin refugee camp overnight on November 2-3 amid Israeli arrest raids.
4. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Axis of Resistance militias conducted three attacks from southern Lebanon into Israel on November 3, including one attack using a one-way attack drone.
5. LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s November 3 speech supports a long-running Iranian and Axis of Resistance information operation that claims Israeli actions are an extension of US policy.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed two attacks inside Israel on October 3, the group’s first time attacking outside Iraq and Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Iraq on November 3.
7. Wagner elements in Syria will reportedly transfer Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide to Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah.
8. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is continuing to coordinate politically with senior Hamas leadership.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israeli Clearing Operations

Palestinian militias targeted IDF ground forces with small arms, anti-tank fire, and indirect fire in the northern Gaza Strip. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that the IDF is encircling Gaza City from the air land, and sea.[1] Fighting continued behind the Israeli forward line of advance in the central Gaza Strip, however. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed responsibility for attacking IDF forces in the northwest, northeast, and south of Gaza City.[2] The al Qassem Brigades used anti-tank munitions and their intricate network of tunnels underneath the Gaza Strip to ambush IDF forces.[3] They also used rockets and mortars to attack IDF vehicles and infantry near the Erez military checkpoint on the northern border.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed to fire artillery at advancing IDF vehicles along the coast.[5] The al Quds Brigades military spokesmen said his fighters fired anti-tank munitions at Israeli vehicles and thwarted a maritime landing attempt west of Gaza City.[6] A Palestinian journalist reported clashes in the Zaytoun and Shujaia neighborhoods southeast of Gaza City on November 3.[7] Palestinian militias have attacked IDF forces and vehicles in Zaytoun neighborhood since October 30 as the IDF attempts to clear territory south of the city.

Hamas and PIJ are coordinating attacks on IDF ground forces in the Gaza Strip. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that the IDF is encircling Gaza City from the air land, and sea.[1] Fighting continued behind the Israeli forward line of advance in the central Gaza Strip, however. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed responsibility for attacking IDF forces in the northwest, northeast, and south of Gaza City.[2] The al Qassem Brigades used anti-tank munitions and their intricate network of tunnels underneath the Gaza Strip to ambush IDF forces.[3] They also used rockets and mortars to attack IDF vehicles and infantry near the Erez military checkpoint on the northern border.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed to fire artillery at advancing IDF vehicles along the coast.[5] The al Quds Brigades military spokesmen said his fighters fired anti-tank munitions at Israeli vehicles and thwarted a maritime landing attempt west of Gaza City.[6] A Palestinian journalist reported clashes in the Zaytoun and Shujaia neighborhoods southeast of Gaza City on November 3.[7] Palestinian militias have attacked IDF forces and vehicles in Zaytoun neighborhood since October 30 as the IDF attempts to clear territory south of the city.

Hamas and PIJ are coordinating attacks on IDF ground forces in the Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades conducted an attack against IDF ground forces northwest of Gaza City on November 3 with artillery support from the al Quds Brigades.[9] Hamas and PIJ leadership have coordinated throughout the war in bilateral planning meetings. [10] The tactical coordination on the ground and coordination at the senior level is consistent with the reality that the IDF is facing a coalition of several Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip.

The IDF said its forces recently took over a Hamas military stronghold used by Nukhba–a naval special forces unit of Hamas’ militant wing–and Hamas’ operational intelligence headquarters in Jabaliya. The Assistant to the Israeli director of military intelligence said that Jabaliya is a hub of Hamas’ tunnel network used for weapons stockpiles, rocket firing positions, and tunnels leading to the coast.[12] The IDF is degrading Hamas’ naval capabilities, which Hamas could use to target Israeli gas rigs and other infrastructure, according to an Israeli journalist.[13] Palestinian militants continued to operate in Jabaliya. The al Quds Brigades claimed to engage IDF forces at a “close distance” east of Jabaliya.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israeli territory, primarily in Southern Israel. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel at a decreased rate on November 3. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for four indirect fire attacks.[15] The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for another four indirect fire attacks. The al Quds Brigades’ indirect fire targeted Israeli military concentrations in three locations adjacent to the Gaza Strip.[16] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed one indirect fire attack into southern Israel.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

CTP-ISW recorded 12 separate clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank on November 3. CTP-ISW also recorded 10 instances of IED attacks against Israeli forces in the West Bank, which is an increase compared with the daily average of IED attacks in the area over the past week. The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claimed IED attacks against Israeli forces in four locations in Tulkarm on November 3.[18] The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Quds Brigades engaged Israeli forces with small arms and IEDs in Tulkarm at the same time as the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades’ attack on November 3, indicating possible coordination between the groups.[19] The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and al Quds Brigades previously conducted combined attacks in Tulkarm on October 30.

Palestinian militants engaged Israeli forces in small arms and IED attacks in the Jenin refugee camp overnight on November 2-3 amid Israeli arrest raids. The Jenin Brigade of the al Quds Brigades claimed it conducted small arms and IED attacks on Israeli forces on November 3, presumably in Jenin, though the brigade did not indicate where the attacks occurred.[22] The IDF conducted an airstrike which it said killed multiple militants in the Jenin refugee camp on November 3.[23] The IDF also dropped leaflets calling for West Bank residents not to work with Hamas and other militant groups.[24] The attacks came after West Bank residents in Jenin and Tulkarm broadcasted a speech by al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Obaida on November 2, who said its fighters would ”make the enemy pay.”

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah and other Axis of Resistance militias conducted three attacks from southern Lebanon into Israel on November 3, including one attack using a one-way attack drone. LH claimed two attacks, including a one-way attack drone targeting Israeli forces near Mt. Dov.[26] The IDF reported that the drone attack wounded two soldiers, and that the IDF targeted an LH military position with an airstrike in response.[27] Unspecified militants also fired an anti-tank guided missile targeting an Israeli military site near Manara.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s November 3 speech supports a long-running Iranian and Axis of Resistance information operation that claims Israeli actions are an extension of US policy.[29 Nasrallah said that the United States is “completely responsible" for Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.[30] He added that to avert US involvement in the war, Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip must cease.[31] Nasrallah also threatened that if the war expands, the United States will suffer the most and “endure the greatest losses.”[32] This information operation is implicitly threatening that LH will expand the war if the United States does not constrain Israeli ground operations. Nasrallah’s threats and the information operation are consistent with Iran's and its so-called Axis of Resistance’s objectives. We assess these objectives to be (1) deter Israel from trying to destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip, (2) prevent Israel from destroying Hamas if deterrence fails, and (3) deter the United States from providing military support for Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip.

Nasrallah also identified halting the fighting in Gaza and securing a victory for Hamas in the region as LH’s two primary objectives as part of his justification for failing to increase support to Hamas. Nasrallah said that LH seeks to halt the fighting in Gaza and secure a victory for Hamas, which he claims would further the interests of the people of the region.[34] Nasrallah justified the relatively low-level of support that LH has provided for Hamas by arguing that LH has successfully fixed large numbers of Israeli forces on the Israel-Lebanon border.[35] Nasrallah noted that any further LH actions depend on Israeli operations in Gaza, adding that ”all options are on the table.”[36] These statements are consistent with CTP’s assessment of LH’s activity on the Israel-Lebanon border, which aims to draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel while setting conditions for successive campaigns into Israel.

Iranian state media widely covered Nasrallah’s speech on November 3.

• State-controlled outlets primarily focused on Nasrallah’s threats to US assets and forces in the region, warnings about the expansion of the war to new fronts, and claims that the Al Aqsa Flood Operation was “100 percent” a Palestinian initiative.[38] The Iranian regime, like Nasrallah, has in recent weeks accused the United States of being directly involved in the war.[39] The regime has additionally set informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[40]
• IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency framed Nasrallah’s speech as marking the opening of a new front against Israel that can “inflict a final blow on the Israeli military and government.”[41] This framing differed from other Iranian media coverage of Nasrallah’s speech in that it framed the speech itself as an escalation, rather than as a warning of future escalation. Fars notably published this statement approximately 10 minutes after the conclusion of Nasrallah’s speech.
• Iranian officials and media emphasized Israel’s “fear” of Nasrallah and LH on November 3. Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Friday Prayer Leader Mohammad Ali al Hashim stated that Nasrallah “terrifies” Israel, which he described as a “victory.”[42] Al Hashim added that Israel’s “fear” of Nasrallah underscores the “high importance of Nasrallah in equations in West Asia and even in the world.” Iranian media separately recirculated Israeli reporting that LH is waging a “psychological war” against Israel and that the IDF had been in “full alert” and “on standby” ahead of Nasrallah’s speech.[43]
• Iranian media highlighted Iranians’ support for Nasrallah. Raisi administration-affiliated IRNA reported that “thousands” of Iranians gathered in Tehran on November 3 to support Palestinians and watch Nasrallah’s speech.[44] Fars similarly reported that university students gathered near the former US Embassy in Tehran to watch Nasrallah’s speech.[45] Various state-controlled outlets livestreamed Nasrallah’s speech on November 3.

Harakat Hezbollah al Nubja (HHN) leader Akram al Kaabi released a statement on November 3 in reaction to Nasrallah’s speech stating that the Iraqi resistance is ready to participate in the Israel-Hamas war with ground forces. Kaabi said Iraqi ground forces can take on Israel side-by-side with Palestinian and Lebanese militias. Kaabi also affirmed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s battle with American forces is an existential battle and will not end without total liberation. Kaabi previously announced on November 1 that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq would liberate Iraq by military force and to expect greater attacks.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed two attacks inside Israel on October 3, the group’s first time attacking outside Iraq and Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed to attack vital Israeli infrastructure on the coast on the Dead Sea with unspecified weapons.[48] The group also claimed an unspecified attack on the Israeli Red Sea city of Eilat in response to Israeli attacks against Palestinian civilians.[49] The Al Qassem Brigades reposted the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s Eilat claim.[50] Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it would start a new phase of confrontation next week that will be more severe and wider across the region.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Iraq on November 3. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed it launched two drones targeting US forces near the Erbil International Airport in Iraqi Kurdistan and achieved “direct hits.”[52] Reuters cited two security sources reporting that US forces shot down two drones targeting the al Harir base, which is a separate location thirty miles north of Erbil International Airport.[53] The US Department of Defense stated on November 2 that there had been 28 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria since October 17.

An Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-linked Mahan Air flight purportedly transporting shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles (MANPADs) landed at the Russian Hmeimim military airport in northern Syria from Tehran on November 2.[55] Israeli media said that the airplane carried five tons of weapons and arrived at the airport, which it said appears to provide a safe cover for the IRGC.[56] Four trucks carried the plane’s cargo to central and southern Syria, according to local opposition media.[57] CTP-ISW cannot corroborate or verify these claims. Sources at Hmeimim Airport reported to opposition media that Russia agreed to let Iran use its military airport in Syria for weapons transfers.[58] This claim is consistent with a report from Kuwaiti newspaper al Jarida on October 2 that LH would provide weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian forces transporting Iranian weapons through Syria to LH in Lebanon. CTP-ISW previously reported on this supposed Iran-LH-Syria-Russia deal in detail on October 2.[59] Russia may be able to facilitate weapons shipments without risking Israeli airstrikes interdicting them. Russia and Israel have a complex relationship in Syria, as Israel has historically relied on Russia to curb Iranian activities in Syria.[60] Israel has stopped giving Russian forces advanced warning of its strikes into Israel, however.

Wagner elements in Syria will reportedly transfer Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide to Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah. (NOTE: This text also appeared in the Institute for the Study of War’s November 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment) CNN reported on November 3 that two people familiar with US intelligence stated that Assad agreed to provide the Russian air defense systems to Hezbollah and tasked Wagner with their delivery during joint conversations between the three actors.[62] The Wall Street Journal reported on November 2 that US intelligence indicated that Wagner itself would give the Russian air defense systems to Hezbollah.[63] Israel frequently conducts airstrikes on Iranian weapons shipments into and through Syria, and Assad may have asked Wagner to deliver the air defense systems to Hezbollah to act as a deterrent to potential Israeli interdiction efforts.[64] CTP-ISW has previously assessed that Russia may be able to facilitate weapons shipments in Syria without risking Israeli airstrikes, and the Kremlin may believe that this Israeli reticence will extend to Wagner.[65] Russia and Israel have a complex relationship in Syria, as Israel has historically relied on Russia to curb Iranian activities in Syria.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held separate phone calls with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on November 3. Abdollahian emphasized the readiness of Axis of Resistance members to act against Israel during his meeting with Mekdad.[68] These phone calls follow Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Representative for Syrian Affairs Alexander Lavrentiev in Tehran on November 2.[69] Iranian media additionally recirculated on November 3 Western reporting that Israel is not giving Russian forces advanced warning of its strikes into Syria.

Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al Sudani removed two professional, experienced military commanders on November 1, possibly due to pressure from the Iranian-backed Shia Coordination Framework. Sudani removed Counter-Terrorism Service commander LTG Abdul Wahhab al Saadi and Baghdad Operations Commander LTG Ahmed Salim Bahjat, replacing them with experienced CTS LTG Karim Abboud Mohammed and former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki-linked MG Walid Khalifa al Tamimi respectively.[71] An Iraqi political analyst said that the sackings were due to “political influences,“ adding that the Shia Coordination Framework fears the CTS after it conducted raids targeting Iranian-backed factions under former Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi.[72] The analyst added that the Framework is attempting to ”control” the CTS and that ”those in power” are fearful of a CTS-led coup.

The Secretary General of the Iraqi Defense Ministry issued instructions to the Iraqi Army Chief of Staff on October 28 to ensure troop and materiel readiness on account of the rapidly changing security situation.[74] The leaked letter instructed forces to protect weapons and ammunition depots, to repair all military equipment and weapons, and secure barracks and bases, and advised additional intelligence collection against future threats.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is continuing to coordinate politically with senior Hamas leadership. Abdollahian held a phone call with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh on November 2, marking the fourth time Abdollahian and Haniyeh have discussed the Israel-Hamas war since October 7.[75] Iranian media did not provide details of what Abdollahian and Haniyeh discussed. Their phone call notably comes amid IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari’s November 2 announcement that Haniyeh is slated to travel to Tehran.[76] Iranian diaspora and anti-regime media recirculated Hagari’s announcement, although state-controlled outlets have not responded to or denied the announcement.

Anti-regime outlet Iran International claimed on November 3 that senior Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) commanders are in Tehran.[78] CTP cannot independently verify this claim, although it is entirely plausible that HHN commanders are coordinating their actions vis-à-vis the Israel-Hamas war with Iranian officials. HHN has previously attacked US forces in Iraq and is affiliated with the Iranian-backed militia Asaib Ahl al Haq, which is a member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.[79] HHN was one of three Iranian-backed militias that released a statement on November 1 signaling that they may escalate against US forces in Iraq and Syria, as CTP-ISW previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-3-2023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3QxT-w3WMo
now more then ever

By the rivers of Babylon, there we sat down
Yeah, we wept, when we remembered Zion
By the rivers of Babylon, there we sat down
Yeah, we wept, when we remembered Zion

Jewish woman stabbed at home in Lyon, swastika painted on door

A 30-year-old Jewish woman was stabbed in her home in the southern French city of Lyon, police report. A swastika has been placed on her front door, the city's mayor and the police report. The public prosecutor is investigating "a possible anti-Semitic motive", writes the French newspaper Le Monde .

The victim suffered two stab wounds and was taken to hospital, but her injuries are not life-threatening.

Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, authorities in cities around the world have reported rising anti-Semitism and Islamophobia.

europe is in bad place
they will have to change their immigration policies or else they are screwed

Islam is the largest religion in Europe after Christianity . Including European Russia and Turkey, about 50 million Muslims live on the continent..

your future will be like ours and even worse...

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1721160932766753200

Putin is such a weasel lol.

Hamas delegations have been to Moscow several times this year. Hamas leader Haniyeh was welcomed with open arms. Last week, Hamas leaders were again in the Russian capital. Hamas then announced that it would release the Russian hostages, "because Russia is our closest friend." Hamas is not classified as a terrorist organization in Russia, while Navalny's anti-corruption organization is on the terrorism list, directly below IS and Al-Qaeda.

Since the war against Ukraine, Iran has been one of Russia's most important allies. It supplies weapons and drones and the countries help each other to circumvent Western sanctions.

At the same time, Putin is trying not to jeopardize his relationship with Israel. There are almost a million people of Russian descent living in Israel whom Putin cannot 'abandon'. Israel has so far not supplied weapons to Ukraine and has refrained from sanctions against Russia.

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 5, 2023
Nov 5, 2023 - ISW Press









Iran Update, November 5, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Brian Carter, Annika Ganzeveld, and Frederick W. Kagan

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli ground forces advanced along the northwestern Gazan coast amid reports of clashes with Hamas in the area. The IDF continued its advance into Tal al Hawa on November 5.

2. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank continued at their usual rate on November 5, indicating that November 4’s calls for uprisings across the West Bank failed to materialize.

3. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militants continued cross-border attacks into northern Israel on November 5 at their normal rate.

4. Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy militia Kataib Hezbollah threatened to escalate attacks against US forces in Iraq and to target “US regional interests” ahead of Blinken’s visit to Iraq, which indicates that Iran and its proxies and partners may target US interests outside of Iraq and Syria.

5. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on November 5.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israeli ground forces advanced along the northwestern Gazan coast amid reports of clashes with Hamas in the area. IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israeli ground forces have fully encircled Gaza City and split the whole Gaza Strip into two.[1] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—released footage of its militants operating in or around the al Shati Refugee Camp.[2] Independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated the footage to the Ahmed Oraby road north of the al Shati camp.[3] The footage shows militants launching rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) at IDF tanks.[4] Both the al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—and the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade said they targeted Israeli vehicles in northwestern Gaza on November 5.[5]

The IDF is continuing its advance in Beit Hanoun in the northeastern Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—published footage of its militants maneuvering through tunnel systems in Beit Hanoun and attacking IDF forces with various weapons on November 4.[6] A Palestinian journalist said that the IDF clashed with Hamas forces on al Karamah Street, the main north-south street in Beit Hanoun, on November 4.[7]

Hamas fired mortars targeting Israeli military vehicles west of the Erez military checkpoint on November 5, possibly as part of an effort to harass and disrupt Israeli ground lines of communication there.[8] Israeli forces crossed into the Gaza Strip at and near Erez on October 29 and Hamas will likely continue to attack this and other IDF crossing points and the roads leading from them.[9]

IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari released videos and pictures showing how Hamas uses the Indonesian Sheikh Hamad Hospital for military operations.[10] The videos show Hamas militants firing small arms at the IDF from the hospital.[11] Another video shows a tunnel shaft that the IDF says connects to a tunnel network underneath the hospital.[12] CTP-ISW previously reported that the Wall Street Journal published a map of the tunnel system that Hamas has created below the Gaza Strip, which includes a system underneath Beit Hanoun.

The IDF continued its advance into Tal al Hawa on November 5. The Al Qassem Brigades claimed that it defended against Israeli advances from southwest of Tal al Hawa.[14] The National Resistance Brigades—the military wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine—mortared Israeli forces and fired anti-tank rockets at advancing Israeli vehicles southeast of Zaytoun neighborhood and south of Gaza City on November 5.[15] The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades also mortared Israeli vehicles entering the al Samouni area near Zaytoun.[16]

Al Qassem Brigades and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades mortared advancing Israeli forces east of Juhor ad Dik, which is close to where Israeli forces entered the central Gaza Strip at the beginning of the ground operation.[17] Local sources claimed Hamas fighters ambushed an Israeli military unit in the western outskirts of Netzarim, west of Juhor ad Dik.[18] Israeli forces south of the Gaza Strip are continuing to undertake clearing operations. Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of ”clear,” which is a tactical task that ”requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari stated on November 5 that the IDF will still allow civilians to leave north Gaza and head south.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israeli territory, primarily in southern Israel. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for four indirect fire attacks into the areas immediately adjacent to the Gaza Strip, and for two attacks targeting Tel Aviv.[20] The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for 12 indirect fire attacks on November 5.[21] The al Quds Brigades’ indirect fire primarily targeted Israeli towns adjacent to Gaza and North Gaza governorates in the northern Gaza Strip. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)-aligned media also reported that unspecified militants fired anti-tank guided missiles at Israeli forces near Kissufim on November 4.

Hamas condemned the Israeli Heritage Minister’s suggestion that Israel could use a nuclear weapon on the Gaza Strip. Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu made the comment in a radio interview.[23] Israeli Prime Minister Benajamin Netanyahu condemned the comment and suspended Eliyahu from participation in cabinet meetings.[24] Hamas called on the United Nations and international community to take the statement seriously and warned that the statement will ignite the region.

Al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Ubaida claimed that Israeli airstrikes have killed 60 Israeli hostages, which is consistent with a Hamas information campaign that seeks to prepare the information environment to blame Israel for the possible deaths of hostages. Netanyahu restated that there will not be a ceasefire without the return of Israeli hostages.[27] Hamas political bureau member Khalil al Hayya said on November 5 that Israel and Hamas were on the verge of an agreement to release hostages, but the negotiations are now back to square one.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank continued at their usual rate on November 5, indicating that November 4’s calls for uprisings across the West Bank failed to materialize. CTP-ISW recorded 13 clashes in the West Bank, including several hours of continual fighting in Jenin.[29] CTP-ISW also recorded five instances of Palestinian militants conducting IED attacks in the West Bank.[30] The IDF recovered multiple IEDs planted on roads in Jenin.[31] IDF raids across the West Bank likely contributed to the number of armed clashes.[32] CTP-ISW recorded six anti-Israel demonstrations on November 5.

Israeli security forces killed an ISIS operative in a raid on November 5 in Abu Dis, near Jerusalem.[34] Israel released the operative from prison in July 2023. The ISIS fighter was recruiting a small cell to conduct small arms attacks against Israeli forces.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on November 5 to discuss a post-Hamas Gaza, the Israel-Hamas War, and humanitarian aid.[35] Abbas said that Gaza is “an integral part” of a future Palestinian state, but noted that the Palestinian Authority will assume its responsibilities within a “comprehensive political solution” applying to both the West Bank and Gaza.[36] Abbas emphasized the need for an “immediate ceasefire” and added that humanitarian aid must be allowed into Gaza.[37] A US State Department spokesperson said that Blinken told Abbas that the United States is committed to restoring essential services in Gaza and “getting aid into Gaza.”[38] The spokesperson added that Blinken expressed his commitment to “the realization of the Palestinians’ legitimate aspirations” for a Palestinian state.[39]

Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), continued to call for uprisings against Israel in the West Bank. Palestinian militant groups have repeatedly called for demonstrations and attacks since October 7, but the calls have so far failed to generate widespread protests or attacks. PIJ called for “comprehensive confrontation” with the IDF.[40] Separately, Hamas called for demonstrations to “pressure” Israel in response to Israeli treatment of Palestinian prisoners.[41] A militia with members in the Palestinian security services gave a 24-hour deadline for Abbas to declare a confrontation with the IDF.[42] The militia said it will rebel against the Palestinian Authority if its demands are not met.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militants continued cross-border attacks into northern Israel on November 5 at their normal rate. LH claimed nine attacks out of the 10 conducted on Israeli military and communications points along the border.[43] Lebanese Hezbollah launched rockets at Kiryat Shmona on November 5 in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed four Lebanese civilians.[44] The IDF intercepted two drones attempting to cross into Israeli airspace, one over southern Lebanon and one near Matat in northern Israel.[45] Israeli forces continued retaliatory attacks targeting the sites in Lebanon that militants used to launched projectiles into Israel.[46]

Political Bureau Head of the Islamic Group in Lebanon Ali AbI Yassin stated that his group’s military wing, the Fajr Forces, would participate in a war with Israel in support of Gaza on November 5, which is consistent with the group’s previous statements and activity.[47] The Fajr Forces claimed one rocket attack into northern Israel on October 18.[48] The Sunni armed group operates in southern Lebanon and made a resurgence during the Israel-Hamas war after almost 20 years of dormancy. The deputy head of the Islamic Group’s political bureau said on October 30 that the group is not in complete alignment with LH but that the group supports LH in terms of resistance.[49] LH almost certainly permits militant groups operating in southern Lebanon, such as the Fajr Forces, to conduct attacks from southern Lebanon given the extent to which LH controls the area.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—an umbrella group of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for one attack targeting US forces in Syria on November 5. This Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it launched one drone targeting US forces at Tal Baidar, west of Hasakah city, Syria.[50] The group has not previously targeted this position. Local Syrian sources reported that US forces shot down an unspecified drone near the base.[51] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed 33 attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East since October 18. CENTCOM has not commented on the November 5 attack at the time of publication.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al Sudani on November 5 in Baghdad to discuss threats to US forces. Blinken said that he “made very clear” that attacks on US positions in Iraq are “totally unacceptable” and that the United States will “take every necessary step to protect our people” during the meeting with Sudani.[52] Iraqi government sources told an Iraqi Fayli Kurdish outlet on November 4--notably before Blinken’s travel was publicly announced--that Blinken would visit Baghdad on November 5 and that the meeting between Blinken and Sudani would focus on attacks against US forces.[53] The source claimed that Blinken would deliver a warning that the United States will respond to attacks on US forces, presumably within Iraq.[54] Retaliation against Iranian-backed groups in Iraq would be a break from the Biden Administration’s pattern of striking targets in Syria in response to Iranian-backed attacks in Iraq.[55] US aircraft struck an IRGC-affiliated compound on October 26 in Syria in response to Iranian-backed attacks in Iraq.

Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy militia Kataib Hezbollah threatened to escalate attacks against US forces in Iraq and to target “US regional interests” ahead of Blinken’s visit to Iraq, which indicates that Iran and its proxies and partners may target US interests outside of Iraq and Syria. Kataib Hezbollah spokesperson Abu Ali Askari said on November 4—notably before Blinken’s travel was publicly announced—that Kataib Hezbollah would “work to end” the US presence in Iraq and “disable US regional interests” if the United States continued to support Israel’s ground operation in Gaza.[57] Kataib Hezbollah has the capabilities to target the US interests in the Arab Gulf states and has targeted US allies in the Gulf previously.[58] A Kataib Hezbollah-linked militia group targeted Saudi oil infrastructure in 2019 and in 2021.[59] Iran is also more likely to choose Kataib Hezbollah to target US interests regionally because the Yemeni Houthi movement is less likely to target US assets in the Arab Gulf states due to the Houthis’ ongoing peace efforts with Saudi Arabia.

The Iranian foreign affairs minister discussed the Israel-Hamas War with the Iraqi foreign minister ahead of the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to Tehran on November 6. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in a phone call with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hossein on November 4.[61] Abdollahian warned that the United States’ “growing violence” against civilians in the Gaza Strip will “inevitably” cause the war to expand. Iranian media separately reported on November 5 that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani will travel to Tehran on November 6.[62] Sudani’s visit comes on the heels of his meeting with the US secretary of state.

Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on November 5.[63] Haniyeh and Khamenei discussed “the latest developments” in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Khamenei reiterated Iran’s support for Palestinian resistance groups and praised Gazans’ “patience and endurance.” Khamenei condemned the United States’ support for Israel and called on Islamic governments to support Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Iranian officials have engaged with senior Hamas leadership on numerous occasions since October 7. Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has discussed the war with Haniyeh on four separate occasions since October 7, for example.

Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani warned the United States on November 5 that it will suffer “heavy blows” if it does not immediately halt attacks on the Gaza Strip and implement a ceasefire Ashtiani’s warning is part of Iran’s ongoing efforts to deter the United States from providing further military support to Israel.[65] His warning is also consistent with previous Iranian claims that the United States is “directing” Israel’s war against Hamas.[66] Other Iranian military officials have issued similar warnings to the United States in recent weeks. IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Ramazan Sharif recently warned the United States in an interview with LH-affiliated al Mayadeen on October 28 that “those who cannot reach Israel [in battle] may be able to reach the US forces that are managing this war,” as CTP-ISW previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-5-2023

the attack was on his birthday
and halad mashal said that russia and china knew about the attack.

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 7, 2023
Nov 7, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, November 7, 2023

Peter Mills, Brian Carter, Kathryn Tyson, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW has refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces entered the northern outskirts of al Shati refugee camp in the northwestern Gaza Strip, according to local and Axis of Resistance-affiliated reporting as well as geolocated footage.
2. Hamas and other Palestinian militants are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
3. CTP-ISW recorded seven indirect fire attacks into Israel, five of which targeted Israeli military facilities.
4. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade conducted eight attacks on Israeli forces in the West Bank after threatening revenge for an Israeli raid that killed fighters from the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and Hamas.
5. Iranian-backed militants continued cross-border attacks into northern Israel at their normal rate.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for four attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
7. UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported that senior Axis of Resistance officials traveled to Iran in the summer of 2023 to establish a regional joint operations room.
8. Iranian officials are continuing their attempts to rally the Arab and Muslim world against Israel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israeli forces entered the northern outskirts of al Shati refugee camp in the northwestern Gaza Strip on November 7, according to local and Axis of Resistance-affiliated reporting as well as geolocated footage. A Palestinian journalist cited local sources that said that the IDF reached an apartment building just north of al Shati camp.[1] An Axis of Resistance-affiliated source similarly claimed that the IDF engaged unspecified Palestinian militants at positions east and west of the building.[2] Geolocated Hamas footage from November 4 furthermore showed Hamas militants firing tandem charge anti-tank rockets at Israeli armor north of al Shati camp.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun on November 7. The IDF said that it forces destroyed several Hamas tunnels inside a residential home in Beit Hanoun.

Hamas and other Palestinian militants are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. Axis of Resistance-affiliated media reported fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the al Amoudi area near Atatra.[5] An independent social media account geolocated IDF footage of the fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants near Atatra.[6] Unidentified Palestinian militants separately attacked an IDF unit near the Sharm amusement park in Netzarim on November 7, according to a Palestinian journalist.[7] Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of "clear,” which is a tactical task that "requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.” Clearing operations frequently take weeks and sometimes months to complete. Enemy counterattacks will often persist throughout a clearing operation until the clearing force has successfully eliminated organized resistance in its sector. Attacks may still occur infrequently even after the end of a clearing operation due to the re-infiltration of enemy forces.

The IDF reported that its forces located a Hamas unit planning to attack advancing Israeli forces from a building adjacent to the al Quds Hospital outside Gaza City and called in air support for a strike.[8] The strike caused several secondary explosions. The IDF suggested that there had been a weapons stockpile at the site.[9] A Palestinian journalist reported that the IDF is making advances to the Tal al Hawa neighborhood south of Gaza City on November 6, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

CTP-ISW recorded seven indirect fire attacks into Israel, five of which targeted Israeli military facilities.[11] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed two rocket attacks targeting Ashdod and Tel Aviv.[12] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media claimed that the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade— the self-claimed military wing of Fatah—conducted three rocket attacks targeting Israeli military facilities.[13] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade has not claimed responsibility for any three of these reported attacks at the time of publication. Axis of Resistance-affiliated media also claimed that unidentified Palestinian militants destroyed several wings of the Barzilai Hospital in Ashkelon in a rocket attack.[14] Half as many indirect fire attacks into Israel occurred at the time of publication on November 7 compared to November 6.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian militants continued clashing with Israeli forces at the usual rate in the West Bank on November 7. The al Qassem Brigades, al Quds Brigades, and al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade engaged Israeli forces in 12 small arms clashes and conducted seven IED attacks targeting Israeli forces.[15] These attacks occurred primarily around Jenin and Tulkarm in the northern West Bank. Unspecified militants also detonated an IED targeting Israeli forces in Jenin.[16] Unspecified militants separately clashed with Israeli forces with small arms fire in Ramallah.

The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade conducted eight attacks on Israeli forces in the West Bank on November 7 after threatening revenge for an Israeli raid that killed fighters from the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and Hamas. Israeli forces killed at least three al Aqsa Martys’ Brigade and Hamas fighters during a raid in Tulkarm on November 6.[18] The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade said on November 6 that it would avenge these fighters within 24 hours and appears to be acting on its threat.[19] Most of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade attacks on November 7 occurred in Tulkarm in the northern West Bank, which included an hours-long engagement between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the Tulkarm camp.[20] The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Quds Brigades also engaged Israeli forces in the Tulkarm camp at the same time, indicating possible coordination between the groups. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and al Quds Brigades claimed combined attacks in Tulkarm in October 2023.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants continued cross-border attacks into northern Israel at their normal rate on November 7. Unspecified militants conducted five attacks on Israeli military and civilian targets in northern Israel with anti-tank missiles, rockets, and small arms fire.[22] Unspecified militants also fired one salvo of 20 rockets from southern Lebanon toward the Golan Heights on November 7.[23] The IDF responded by firing artillery at the source of the attacks in Lebanon.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

•Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for four attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on November 7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed 42 attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East since October 18. A Syrian regime-affiliated social media account claimed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is using variants of the Samad-2 drone to attack US forces in Iraq and Syria.[25] The Houthi movement is the primary operator of the Samad-2 drone, although Lebanese Hezbollah and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq also maintain variants of this platform.[26]

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it conducted two separate one-way drone attacks targeting Erbil International Airport and al Harir airbase in northern Iraq on November 7.[27] The group has claimed five attacks on Erbil International Airport and four attacks on al Harir airbase since October 18. The Islamic Resistance al Dhaferin Group, which is affiliated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, previously threatened to attack al Harir airbase on November 5.[28]
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it conducted one-way drone and rocket attacks on US bases at the Green Village and Conoco bases in northeastern Syria.[29] The group’s claimed attack on US forces at Green Village is its first claimed attack there since October 18, although it previously targeted a nearby US base at al Omar oil field on October 24. The group has also claimed three attacks on the Conoco base since October 18.

The Houthi military spokesperson claimed that the group launched an unspecified number of attack drones at “sensitive sites” in Israel on November 6.[30] The Houthis released a video on November 7 showing the launch of 10 drones.[31] The IDF did not comment on the Houthi’s claimed drone attack.[32] Israeli media reported that no alarms were activated in southern Israel, suggesting the drones did not reach Israel.[33] CTP-ISW cannot independently confirm this drone attack. It would mark the fifth attempted Houthi attack against Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began if it did, in fact, occur.

Iranian officials are continuing their attempts to rally the Arab and Muslim world against Israel. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf discussed holding an extraordinary meeting of the “Permanent Palestine Committee,” which is composed of the parliamentary heads of some Muslim countries, to support the “oppressed people of Palestine” during a phone call with Algerian Assembly President Ebrahim Boughali on November 7.[34] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian similarly discussed Egyptian-Iranian cooperation ahead of the upcoming Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Riyadh on November 12 with Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry.[35] Iranian state media reported that President Ebrahim Raisi will attend the OIC meeting.[36] Iran has repeatedly used the OIC as a platform for uniting Arab and Muslim countries against Israel, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported on November 7 that senior Axis of Resistance officials traveled to Iran in the summer of 2023 to establish a regional joint operations room.[38] Representatives and leaders from Hamas, PIJ, the Houthi movement, and numerous Iraqi militias met with senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani. The Axis of Resistance originally established the operations room to “counter challenges” from the United States and Israel and is currently using the operations room to coordinate Axis of Resistance activities vis-a-vis the Israel-Hamas war. Ghaani has coordinated Axis of Resistance activities from the joint operations room in Beirut, according to an earlier Amwaj Media report.[39] Amwaj Media noted at the time that LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is essentially leading the joint operations room. The establishment of this regional joint operations room is consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous observation that Iran pursued greater coordination with Palestinian groups in the year leading up to Hamas’ October 7 attack into Israel.[40] Senior PIJ and Hamas officials met with Iranian leaders, including Khamenei, in Tehran in June 2023, as CTP-ISW previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-7-2023

Yep they don't care about the Palestinians or Israelis killed they want to weaken NATO.

‘Never again’ is now: At Kristallnacht memorial, Scholz vows to protect Germany’s Jews
Chancellor decries uptick in antisemitism, draws parallel between ‘mentality of radical Islamists and those on the far right’

https://www.timesofisrael.com/never...al-scholz-vows-to-protect-germanys-jews/

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 9, 2023
Nov 9, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF








Iran Update, November 9, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Peter Mills, Kathryn Tyson, Brian Carter, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces advanced to a Hamas security headquarters in the northwestern Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces conducted clearing operations west of Jabaliya city in the northwestern Gaza Strip.
3. Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
4. Palestinian militias launched the fewest number of indirect fire attacks into Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began.
5. Palestinian militia fighters clashed with Israeli forces six times in the West Bank.
6. The Lions’ Den claimed its first attacks in the West Bank since the Israel-Hamas war began. The Lions’ Den continues to emphasize its alignment with Hamas.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militias conducted three cross-border attacks into northern Israel.
8. The United States conducted an airstrike on an IRGC weapons storage facility in eastern Syria in response to continued Iranian-sponsored attacks in Iraq and Syria, which injured three US servicemembers.
9. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for an additional five attacks on US forces in Iraq, most of which occurred after the US airstrike in Syria. Abu Alaa al Walai—the secretary general of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Seyyed ol Shohada—announced his group’s support for attacks against US forces in Iraq.
10.The Houthi movement claimed that it fired multiple unspecified ballistic missiles targeting “sensitive sites” near Eilat in southern Israel on November 9, marking the sixth attempted Houthi attack on Israel.
11. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Economic Cooperation Organization summit in Tashkent to discuss the Israel-Hamas war.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

•Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israeli forces advanced to a Hamas security headquarters in the northwestern Gaza Strip. The Israel Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that infantry, armor, engineering, and special forces units raided the security headquarters, which included intelligence and air defense headquarters.[1] The IDF killed 50 Palestinian fighters while clearing the infrastructure, which included an underground tunnel system. The IDF published a map of the area, detailing several tunnel shafts in close proximity to each other. These clusters of tunnels could enable the hit-and-run attacks on Israeli forces that CTP-ISW has observed.[2] An independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated footage that Hamas published on November 8 showing militia fighters firing rocket propelled grenades (RPG) at Israeli forces in the security headquarters.

Israeli forces conducted clearing operations west of Jabaliya city in the northwestern Gaza Strip. IDF located a Hamas weapons production and storage facility inside a residential building in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood. Israeli forces found drone parts, explosives, and operational plans in addition to a tunnel shaft with a cooling system.[4] IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said on November 8 that the militia fighters have connected the tunnels to water and oxygen systems in preparation for a prolonged stay in them.[5] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed to destroy an IDF tank with an RPG north of Sheikh Radwan neighborhood on November 9.[6] An IDF combat team engaged in 10 hours of fighting in western Jabaliya on November 8, during which it seized weapons and exposed tunnel shafts.[7] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—launched mortars at Israeli forces operating in the area.

Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. Local media reported violent clashes east of Beit Hanoun on November 9 after the IDF reported that its forces conducted ground operations there the previous day.[9] The al Qassem Brigades claimed to ambush Israeli infantry forces near Juhr al Dik, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Palestinian militias are attempting to harass and disrupt Israeli ground lines of communication.[10] Palestinian militia fighters separately launched mortars at an Israeli command center in the northwestern Gaza Strip on November 8.[11] Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of "clear,” which is a tactical task that "requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.”

The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed an RPG attack on an IDF personnel carrier northwest of Gaza city.[12] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-declared militant wing of Fatah—similarly claimed to fire mortars at Israeli forces in the northwestern Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias launched the fewest number of indirect fire attacks into Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for two indirect fire attacks all in southern Israel. The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for one indirect fire attack. Hamas and PIJ have taken measures to prepare for a prolonged war, including reducing indirect fire attacks to conserve stockpiles.

Hamas leaders met with officials from the Egyptian Intelligence Agency in Cairo to discuss a hostage exchange for humanitarian aid. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, former Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Khaled Meshaal, and senior Hamas official Khalil al Haya met Egyptian Intelligence Agency chief General Abbas Kamal, according to reports on November 9.[15] Egyptian officials said that the group discussed a deal in which Hamas releases hostages in exchange for humanitarian aid.[16] Unnamed sources from Egypt, the United Nations, and a Western diplomat said that a three-day truce is being negotiated to allow humanitarian aid and fuel to enter the Gaza Strip in exchange for hostages.[17]

An unnamed source separately told Reuters that CIA Director William J. Burns and Mossad chief David Barnea met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Doha to discuss hostage negotiations and releases.[18] The source stated that this meeting intended to bring all three sides of the deal together for a quicker process.

US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that Israel will begin to implement a daily four-hour humanitarian pause in areas of the northern Gaza Strip.[20] Kirby said during a press briefing that there will be no military operations in these areas during the pause and that the process is starting on November 9.[21] A pause is temporary, localized, and for a specific purpose to help with hostage releases and for humanitarian assistance, according to Kirby.[22] The IDF said there have been three humanitarian pauses in the northern Gaza Strip at the request of the United States.[23] The United States and Israel have been clear that a ceasefire—a mutual agreement between warring parties to stop hostilities—is not in order.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian militia fighters clashed with Israeli forces six times in the West Bank on November 9. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades engaged Israeli forces in four small arms clashes and conducted two IED attacks across the West Bank.[25] These attacks included an hours-long small arms engagement and IED attacks targeting Israeli forces in the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank.[26] The al Qassem Brigades also clashed with Israeli forces in the Jenin camp.[27] The Jenin Battalion of the al Quds Brigade clashed with Israeli forces and conducted IED attacks targeting Israeli forces in unspecified areas in Jenin.[28] A Palestinian journalist reported that some forces from the Palestinian Authority (PA) joined the clashes against Israeli forces in Jenin but that the PA did not order these fighters to engage Israeli forces.[29] The IDF claimed to have killed 12 fighters during the raids in the Jenin camp and arrested two al Quds Brigade fighters on November 9.[30] The IDF also conducted a drone strike on fighters in Jenin who had "endangered” Israeli forces.[31] Hamas and the Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—released statements on November 9 calling for further mobilization against Israeli forces across the West Bank, especially in the Jenin camp.

The Lions’ Den claimed its first attacks in the West Bank since the Israel-Hamas war began in a statement on November 9. The Lions’ Den claimed that it had participated in 14 shootings in multiple areas near Nablus but did not specify the dates of the attacks.[33] Unspecified fighters have conducted shooting attacks targeting Israeli forces and civilians in October and November 2023 in the same locations that the Lions’ Den claimed it has attacked.

The Lions’ Den continues to emphasize its alignment with Hamas. The Lions’ Den said that the West Bank will be "a sword and a shield for Mohammed Deif and Saleh al Arouri” on November 9.[34] Mohammed Deif is the commander of Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades and Saleh al Arouri is Hamas Political Bureau deputy chairman. The Lions’ Den previously described itself as “a sword in the hand of Commander Mohammad Deif” on October 26.[35] These statements mark a departure from previous Lions‘ Den claims that described the group as being not affiliated with any specific Palestinian faction.

[u]Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militias conducted three cross-border attacks into northern Israel on November 9. LH claimed a rocket attack targeting an Israeli mechanized infantry unit near the northern Israeli town of Shomera.[37] LH also conducted an anti-tank guided missile attack targeting an Israeli Merkava tank operating in Metula.[38] Unspecified fighters separately fired one anti-tank guided missile targeting Israeli forces near Mitzpe Adi.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The United States conducted an airstrike on an IRGC weapons storage facility in eastern Syria in response to continued Iranian-sponsored attacks in Iraq and Syria, which injured three US servicemembers on November 8. 40] Unspecified Iranian-backed militias fired rockets targeting US forces in eastern Syria on November 8.[41] US officials reported that the attacks inflicted minor injuries on three US servicemembers, who quickly returned to duty after the attacks.[42] Iranian-backed militias again fired short-range rockets targeting US forces at al Omar oil field following the US airstrike.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for an additional five attacks on US forces in Iraq, most of which occurred after the US airstrike in Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and its affiliated groups have claimed 50 attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East since October 18.

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed two separate one-way attack drone attacks targeting US forces at al Harir Air Base in northern Iraq on November 8 and 9.[44] One attack occurred on November 8 before the US airstrike in Syria. The other occurred on November 9 after the US airstrike. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq released a video showing the launch of two unspecified drones.[45] Iraqi Kurdistan counterterrorism forces reported that the attack on November 9 destroyed one of the fuel depots at al Harir airbase.[46]
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed three separate missile and one-way drone attacks targeting US forces at Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq on November 9.[47] The group released a video showing it launching two drones and three missiles. The missiles bared visual similarities to the group’s al Aqsa-1 missile.[48] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed on November 6 it launched its al Aqsa-1 missile at an unspecified US base in the Middle East for the first time.[49] The al Aqsa-1 missile bears visual similarities to the Iranian-built Fateh-313, which the Iranians used to target US positions in Iraq in January 2020 in retaliation for the US airstrike that killed IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani.[50]
• Unspecified fighters conducted an IED attack targeting a joint US-Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service patrol near the Mosul dam in northern Iraq on November 9.[51] A US official reported that the attack caused no casualties.

Abu Alaa al Walai—the secretary general of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Seyyed ol Shohada—announced his group’s support for attacks against US forces in Iraq. Walai stated that attacks on US forces would continue until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.[53] Kataib Seyyed ol Shohada was formerly part of another Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah and has fought in Syria on behalf of Iran in Syria in recent years.

The Houthi movement claimed that it fired multiple unspecified ballistic missiles targeting “sensitive sites” near Eilat in southern Israel on November 9, marking the sixth attempted Houthi attack on Israel. The Houthi military spokesperson stated that these attacks would continue until Israel halts its military operations in the Gaza Strip.[56] The IDF used its Arrow anti-ballistic missile defense system to shoot down a missile south of Eilat.[57]

Unidentified fighters separately conducted a one-way drone attack into Eilat on November 9.[58] The attack caused no casualties, and no actor has claimed responsibility for the attack at this time.[59]

US officials confirmed that the Houthis shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone on November 8 in international airspace near Yemen.[60] The Houthi military spokesperson released a video on November 8 showing the shoot down of the drone.

A Syrian journalist said that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba’s Syria-based Golan Liberation Brigade announced that it is in a “state of full mobilization” on November 8.[62] Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba is active in Syria and formed the Golan Liberation Brigade in 2017 with the expressed mission of liberating the Golan Heights from Israel.[63] The Golan Liberation Brigade operates in Syria along the Israeli border.[64] CTP-ISW has not yet observed this brigade conducting attacks against US forces or into Israel, though Iraqi militias like Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba frequently have overlapping membership between the formal militia subordinated to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PF) and covert action cells that conduct attacks against US forces.[65]

The reported announcement from Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba’s Golan Liberation Brigade is consistent with an effort by Iran’s Iraqi proxy network to mobilize its forces in preparation to fight the United States and Israel. The PMF Chief of Staff and Iranian proxy Abu Fadak al Mohammadawi previously said that the PMF is in a “state of emergency” on November 2 in response to ”American threats” to respond to attacks against US forces.[66] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al Sudani that the United States would "protect its people" in response to Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks in a meeting on November 5.[67] Abu Fadak is also the secretary general of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia and US-designated foreign terrorist organization Kataib Hezbollah.[68] Abu Fadak replaced key Iranian proxy Abu Mahdi al Muhandis as head of Kataib Hezbollah in 2020.[69] KH has repeatedly threatened to attack US military positions in recent weeks and is part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Economic Cooperation Organization summit in Tashkent on November 9 to discuss the Israel-Hamas war.[70] Raisi emphasized Iranian-Turkish coordination ahead of the upcoming Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting on November 12 to ensure “effective action” to halt Israeli attacks into the Gaza Strip and to provide humanitarian aid. Other Iranian officials have been coordinating with other Arab and Muslim countries in anticipation of the OIC meeting, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[71] This is consistent with the Iranian effort to disrupt Israeli normalization with Arab states by concentrating attention on the Palestinian cause.[72] Iran has repeatedly used the OIC as a platform for uniting Arab and Muslim countries against Israel and impeding the Arab-Israeli normalization process, as CTP-ISW previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-9-2023

What to expect when Biden and Xi Jinping meet in California

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67381821.amp

Taiwan Ukraine Israel so many problems but at least the two most important countries meet.

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 11, 2023
Nov 11, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF











Iran Update, November 11, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces advanced further toward al Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area and clashed with nearby Palestinian militia fighters.
2. Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
3. Palestinian militants claimed three indirect fire attacks into Israel. Palestinian militias have reduced their rates of indirect fire attacks into Israel in recent days compared to the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
4. CTP-ISW recorded six clashes and three demonstrations in the West Bank, primarily in Jenin.
5. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed fighters conducted 15 cross-border attacks into northern Israel.
6. Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave his second public speech on the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah highlighted Iran’s support for members of the Axis of Resistance and warned that Iranian-backed militias will continue attack US forces in Iraq and Syria unless the United States intervenes to stop Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—an umbrella group for Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed one attack targeting US forces stationed in Rmelan, Hasakah Province, in northeastern Syria.
8.Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to attend a joint Arab League-OIC meeting. Raisi’s visit to Riyadh marked the first official visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia in 11 years and was part of Iran’s ongoing effort to rally Arab and Muslim countries against Israel.
9. Iranian Intelligence and Security Minister Esmail Khatib warned of the long-term consequences of Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip for US forces in the Middle East.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israeli forces advanced further toward al Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area and clashed with nearby Palestinian militia fighters. The Hamas-led Gaza Strip Health Ministry director general said that there are Israeli tanks in the streets and snipers on nearby roofs.[1] An independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated footage taken from a building on the corner of the medical complex with audible small arms fire.[2] The al Quds Brigades—the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed on November 11 that its fighters fought the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the vicinity of al Shifa hospital and the nearby Nasr neighborhood and al Shati refugee camp.[3] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—said its militia fighters are engaged in clashes at ”all the pivots and points” of Israeli progress in the Gaza Strip.[4] Local media said that al Qassem Brigades fighters previously clashed with advancing Israeli forces on the al Nasr Street northeast of al Shifa hospital on November 10.[5] Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that the IDF would help evacuate the infants from al Shifa hospital.[6] Head of the Gaza Coordination and Liaison Administration said that the IDF is not shooting at the hospital or besieging the area and has left the east side of the hospital open.[7]

The IDF Givati Brigade Combat Team advanced on the Lababidi Street east of al Shati refugee camp and killed the Hamas company commander who held hostage 1,000 Gaza Strip residents at the Rantisis Specialist Clinic, according to the IDF.[8] The IDF has repeatedly said that Hamas uses civilian and humanitarian infrastructure to mask its military activities.

Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. al Qassem Brigades published footage on November 11 of its fighters conducting hit-an-run attacks with rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) to harass Israeli forces in Beit Hanoun.[10] The IDF continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun as the 551st Brigade fought in Beit Hanoun and destroyed Hamas infrastructure.[11] The al Qassem Brigades separately launched mortars at Israeli vehicles west of the Erez military checkpoint, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Palestinian militias are attempting to harass and disrupt Israeli ground lines of communication.[12] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-claimed militant wing of Fatah—mortared IDF soldiers in al Nasr neighborhood on November 11.[13]

Israel is conducting joint attacks on Palestinian militia infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. IDF infantry forces identified military targets inside buildings of the al Shati refugee camp, where CTP-ISW has observed clashes for several days before Israeli naval forces attacked the buildings from the Mediterranean Sea.

Palestinian militants claimed three indirect fire attacks into Israel on November 11. The al Qassem Brigades claimed two mortar attacks into southern Israel.[15] The al Quds Brigades claimed one rocket attacks targeting Kissufim in southern Israel.[16] The IDF intercepted a ”suspicious” target that crossed from the Gaza Strip into Sderot.[17] Palestinian militias have reduced their rates of indirect fire attacks into Israel in recent days compared to the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. CTP-ISW previously reported that Hamas and PIJ began reducing its rate of attacks from the Gaza Strip in mid-October 2023 to conserve munitions.

Al Qassem Brigades Military spokesperson Abu Ubaida claimed that Palestinian militia fighters are effectively attacking Israeli forces. Ubaida said that the militia fighters have destroyed or damaged over 160 Israeli military vehicles since the start of the Israeli ground operations and over 25 vehicles in the last 48 hours.[19] CTP-ISW has not observed any evidence of this assertion. The al Qassem Brigades primarily uses the Yassin-105 anti-tank RPG to conduct hit-and-run attacks on Israeli tanks.[20] Ubaida claimed that the militia fighters are targeting Israeli ground forces with rockets, car bombs, mortars, and anti-personnel bombs, likely refering to dropping bombs using a quadcopter drone.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

CTP-ISW recorded six clashes and three demonstrations in the West Bank, primarily in Jenin, on November 11.[22] Unidentified Palestinian fighters threw fireworks and Molotov cocktails at IDF personnel in Silat al Dhahr, Jenin, according to a video circulated by Palestinian media.[23] Unidentified Palestinian fighters separately clashed with Israeli forces at Arraba, Jenin.[24] Palestinian media circulated a call for youth demonstrations in Jenin in support of the Gaza Strip on November 10.[25] CTP-ISW recorded two youth demonstrations in Bethlehem and Tulkarm on November 11.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed fighters conducted 15 cross-border attacks into northern Israel on November 11. LH claimed responsibility for nine cross-border attacks using rockets, mortars, and anti-tank munitions along the Israel-Lebanon border and in the disputed Sheba Farms.[27] LH fighters targeted two IDF outposts in the Shebaa Farms as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.[28] The IDF said unspecified fighters in Lebanese territory launched mortars and rockets that landed into open areas in Israel.[29] The IDF separately said unspecified fighters fired at an Israeli drone operating near the border and that Israeli air defense forces shot down or intercepted three aerial targets.[30] The Lebanese Amal Regiments carried out several military operations on November 11, including attacking the Israeli Ramim barracks.[31] This attack is the first time the Amal Regiments have claimed attacks since the Israel-Hamas war began. LH separately claimed to fire rockets at the Ramim barracks on November 11.

LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave on November 11 his second public speech on the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah stated that LH will continue to use southern Lebanon to pressure Israel, implying that it will conduct further attacks on Israeli targets. Nasrallah also claimed that the Lebanese diplomatic and political establishment supports the LH attacks against Israel.[33] He lastly asserted that LH has expanded the quantity of its attacks into northern Israel and begun useing new military capabilities, such as the Burkan missile and various surveillance drones.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—an umbrella group for Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed one attack targeting US forces stationed in Rmelan, Hasakah Province, in northeastern Syria on November 11.[35] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it launched two one-way drones in the attack and that both successfully hit their targets. CENTCOM has not commented on the attack at the time of publication. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the claim from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. This attack is the first targeting US forces in Rmelan since the Israel-Hamas war began.

LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah highlighted Iran’s support for members of the Axis of Resistance in a speech on November 11.[36] Nasrallah claimed that Iran has not wavered in its support for its Axis of Resistance and has continued to arm, finance, and train “Lebanon, Palestine, and the region.” Nasrallah may be responding the possible frustrations within the Axis of Resistance toward Iran given that Iran has had a relatively restrained response to the Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip.

Nasrallah also warned that Iranian-backed militias will continue attack US forces in Iraq and Syria unless the United States intervenes to stop Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah praised the Islamic Resistance in Iraq for fighting to remove US forces and the Houthis for conducting drone and missile attacks targeting Israel.[37] Nasrallah’s warning of additional attacks is noteworthy given that he has reportedly played a prominent role in leading joint operations room overseeing Axis of Resistance activity cross the region.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on November 11 to attend a joint Arab League-OIC meeting.[39] Raisi’s visit to Riyadh marked the first official visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia in 11 years and was part of Iran’s ongoing effort to rally Arab and Muslim countries against Israel.[40] Raisi called on Arab and Muslim governments to cut all economic and political ties with Israel and to label the IDF a terrorist organization. Iranian state media specifically called on Azerbaijan and Turkey to stop exporting oil to Israel in their coverage of the joint meeting.[41] The emphasis from Iranian state media on Turkey is consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous observation that the Iranian regime is seizing on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s pro-Hamas, anti-Israel stance on the Israel-Hamas war to try to undermine Israeli-Turkish rapprochement.[42] Raisi additionally called for the IDF to immediately withdraw from the Gaza Strip and stated that Arab and Muslim countries should arm Palestinians if Israeli “war crimes” and US “management” of the war persist.

Raisi met with the leaders of Egypt, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Syria on the sidelines of the joint Arab League-OIC meeting.[43] Raisi warned that people in the region may lose patience with their governments and take up the Palestinian cause themselves if the OIC fails to take effective actions to help Palestinians and stop Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip.[44] Iran has historically—and especially since the start of the war on October 7—sought to rally Muslim countries against Israel and has used the OIC as a platform to do so, hoping to isolate Israel internationally.[45] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian recently attended an emergency OIC ministerial meeting in Jeddah on October 18 to this end.

Iranian Intelligence and Security Minister Esmail Khatib warned on November 11 of the long-term consequences of Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip for US forces in the Middle East.Khatib stated that the US forces sent to the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war may stay in the region after the war ends because Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip have failed to "establish deterrence.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-11-2023

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 13, 2023
Nov 13, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, November 13, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, Peter Mills, and Kathryn Tyson.

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

Israel is pressuring Hamas to surrender its position inside the al Shifa Hospital. Hamas prevented al Shifa Hospital staff from accepting fuel from Israeli forces, according to the Israel Defense Forces.
Israeli forces advanced further into the al Nasr neighborhood in the northwestern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces also fought with Palestinian militia fighters at the al Quds Hospital in southwestern Gaza City. The IDF said it has weakened 10 out of 24 Hamas battalions in the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian fighters engaged Israeli forces in seven small arms clashes and detonated five IEDs targeting Israeli forces across the West Bank on November 13.
Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted at least 12 attacks into northern Israel on November 13. Israeli officials stated on November 13 that LH attacks on November 12 killed and wounded 17 Israeli soldiers and civilians. LH acknowledged on November 13 that 73 of its fighters have died fighting Israel since October 7.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed one attack targeting US forces in Syria on November 12 and claimed to fire one drone at US forces stationed at Green Village. CTP-ISW recorded four attacks targeting US forces in Syria on November 13.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israel is pressuring Hamas to surrender its position inside the al Shifa Hospital.[1] Reuters reported on November 13 that Israeli forces and tanks reached the gate of the al Shifa Hospital. Israeli Military International Spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht said that the IDF has not entered the hospital yet.[2] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—clashed with Israeli forces in the vicinity of the hospital, marking the fourth day of armed clashes between Palestinian militias and Israeli forces near the hospital.[3] The spokesperson of the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry said that 650 patients are still inside the hospital.[4] The World Health Organization reported that the al Shifa Hospital is no longer functioning.[5]

Israeli forces arrested Palestinian militia fighters northeast of the al Shifa Hospital on November 12.[6] A local news organization said that Israeli forces surrounded al Wafa Hospital east of the al Shifa Hospital on November 13 and ordered patients and medical staff to evacuate.

Hamas prevented al Shifa Hospital staff from accepting fuel from Israeli forces, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF reported on November 12 that it left 300 liters of fuel at a location approximately 300 meters from the hospital.[8] The head of the hospital told Al Araby TV that the amount of fuel is insufficient and that he agreed to accept the fuel so long as it was delivered by the International Committee of the Red Cross.[9] The IDF reported that Hamas prevented the hospital staff from taking the fuel.[10] A US official with knowledge of US intelligence said on November 13 that Hamas has a command node underneath the al Shifa Hospital and uses the fuel intended for the hospital.[11] US and Israeli officials have stated that Hamas uses hospitals and civilian facilities for command and control, storing weapons, and housing fighters.

Israeli forces advanced further into the al Nasr neighborhood in the northwestern Gaza Strip. The al Quds Brigades clashed with Israeli forces in the al Nasr neighborhood on November 13.[14] The IDF published footage of ground forces operating in the Ranteesi Specialist Hospital in the al Nasr neighborhood on November 13.[15] An IDF combat team continued raids on the outskirts of al Shati Refugee Camp, focusing on destroying military infrastructure in the heart of the civilian population including schools, universities, mosques, and homes. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades artillery unit launched mortars at the Israeli army operating in the vicinity of the camp.[16] A Palestinian woman told the BBC that the IDF ordered some 800 people taking shelter in a clinic in the camp to leave.

Israeli forces fought with Palestinian militia fighters at the al Quds Hospital in southwestern Gaza City. The IDF said a brigade combat team of armored forces, engineers, and infantry with air support killed 21 militants during a period of intense fighting against Hamas.[18] The IDF published drone footage of a militant with an RPG taking cover within hospital grounds and an Israeli tank operating outside of the hospital grounds.[19] The IDF said the incident is another example of Hamas’ ongoing exploitation of sensitive sites, including hospitals.[20] The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said there was heavy shooting and the presence of Israeli military vehicles and forces in the vicinity of the hospital.

Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters conducted indirect fire attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades fired mortars at Israeli forces east of Juhor ad Dik on November 13.[22] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—separately claimed to fire rockets and mortars at Israeli forces east of Juhor ad Dik on November 12 in response to Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip.[23] The al Quds Brigades fired 60 mortars at Israeli vehicles on Highway 10, where Israeli forces have been crossing to advance into Gaza City.[24] Palestinian media reported that the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—the self-claimed militant wing of Fatah— fired mortars at the Israeli army in an unspecified location in the southern Gaza city axis.[25]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun in the northeastern Gaza Strip on November 11. The IDF said that reservists raided the home of a senior PIJ member in a civilian area in Beit Hanoun where they found various weapons and intelligence materials and located a tunnel shaft.[26] CTP-ISW previously reported on October 21 that the IDF faces a loose coalition of Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip—rather than just Hamas.[27] The al Qassem Brigades conducted two attacks on Israeli forces north of Beit Hanoun using a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) and sniper rifle.

The IDF said it has weakened 10 out of 24 Hamas battalions in the Gaza Strip.[29] The IDF published a report explaining how it has been working to eliminate Hamas operatives and commanders at the field and senior levels since October 7.[30] The report says Hamas is comprised of 30,000 militia fighters in the Gaza Strip, which are divided into five regional brigades, 24 battalions, and 140 companies.[31] Each battalion is comprised of several strongholds and military outposts.[32] The IDF said that its ground forces are fighting in areas of several battalions.[33] The IDF has been assassinating several Hamas leaders to dismantle military structures. The IDF said on November 13 that it had assassinated five leaders with various roles in Hamas’ intelligence services, anti-armor units, and special forces.

Palestinian militias conducted three indirect fire attacks into Israel on November 13. The al Qassem Brigades claimed one rocket attack at Tel Aviv.[35] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed one mortar attack on an Israeli military site in southern Israel.[36] The al Quds Brigades claimed two rocket attacks on Israeli military sites in southern Israel.[37]


West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters engaged Israeli forces in seven small arms clashes and detonated five IEDs targeting Israeli forces across the West Bank on November 13.[38] Palestinian militia groups have not claimed the attacks, which occurred primarily in major cities, including Nablus and Jenin. The attacks came as Israeli security forces continued conducting arrest raids in the West Bank on November 13.[39] The IDF said it detained 14 Hamas operatives during the overnight raids.


Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted at least 12 attacks into northern Israel on November 13. LH claimed five attacks targeting the IDF along the Israel-Lebanon border.[40] Unidentified fighters conducted seven more indirect fire and anti-tank guided missile attacks on Israeli towns and IDF border posts along the Israel-Lebanese border.[41] Israeli officials stated on November 13 that LH attacks on November 12 killed and wounded 17 Israeli soldiers and civilians.[42] LH acknowledged on November 13 that 73 of its fighters have died fighting Israel since October 7.[43] Unidentified fighters also fired an anti-tank guided missile which caused several injuries near Netua, along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that members of the Front for the Liberation of the Golan are currently operating in territory surrounding the Golan Heights.[45] SOHR claimed that approximately 700 fighters deployed to the Qunaitrah countryside, western Rif Dimashque, and western Daraa in October 2023.[46] The Assad regime formed the Resistance of the Front for the Liberation of the Golan in 2006 and is primarily made up of Syrians and Palestinian refugees.[47] The group also has ties to LH according to the Washington Institute.[48] CTP-ISW has previously reported on LH and other Iranian-backed militias deploying to the border of the Golan Heights since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.[49]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed one attack targeting US forces in Syria on November 12.[50] The group claimed to fire one drone at US forces stationed at Green Village.[51] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed two attacks targeting US forces stationed at Green Village since October 18.[52] CENTCOM has not commented on the attack at the time of publication. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this claim.

CTP-ISW recorded four attacks targeting US forces in Syria on November 13. The LH-controlled news outlet al Mayadeen reported that unidentified militants conducted attacks targeting US forces in Syria in retaliation for the US airstrike on an IRGC training facility and safe house on November 12.[53] CTP-ISW has not recorded any group claiming responsibility for the four attacks and cannot independently verify this claim.

The Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fired 15 rockets at US forces stationed at al Omar Oil Field, according to unidentified sources cited by Iranian state news on November 13.[54] Unidentified militants also targeted US forces stationed at Conoco with Grad missiles, according to Iranian state news.[55] The local Syrian news outlet Deir ez Zor 24 reported that Iranian-backed militias were also behind the attack at Conoco.[56]
Iranian-backed militants fired at least one drone targeting US forces stationed at Abu Hajar Airport on November 13 according to UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).[57] Iranian state media reported that unidentified Iranian-backed militants launched three drones at US forces stationed at al Shadaddi, Hasakah Province.

The Ebrahim Raisi administration is pressuring Egypt to reopen the Rafah crossing to enable humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian urged the Egyptian government to reopen the Rafah crossing in separate meetings with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry. The meetings occurred on the sidelines of the joint Arab League-Organization for Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Riyadh on November 11.[59] Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani separately emphasized the need for Egypt to reopen the Rafah crossing in a press conference on November 13.[60]

Iranian media claimed on November 13 that Israeli officials have called on the Egyptian government to turn away 60 tons of Iranian humanitarian aid destined for the Gaza Strip.[61] The media reports did not specify why Israel is blocking that aid. Iranian Red Crescent Society head Pir Hossein Kolivand announced on October 20 that this organization had sent its first humanitarian aid shipment to Egypt en route to the Gaza Strip.[62] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify that Iran has sent humanitarian aid shipments to Egypt or that Israel is blocking such shipments from entering the Gaza Strip.

LEC Commander Ahmad Reza Radan met with senior Iraqi officials in Baghdad on November 13. Radan discussed law enforcement and border security cooperation with Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani, Interior Minister Lieutenant General Adel al Khaldi, and National Security Adviser Qassem al Araji.[63] Radan also discussed internal security cooperation with Popular Mobilization Forces Chairman Fali al Fayyadh.[64] Radan’s meetings follow Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's statement that Iran and Iraq should coordinate to “increase political pressure” on the United States and Israel during a meeting with Sudani in Tehran on November 6.[65] Sudani met with Khamenei after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Baghdad on November 5, during which he and Blinken discussed Axis of Resistance attacks on US forces.[66]

Radan is a hardline member of the IRGC and has extensive experience crushing political dissent and protests.[67] He joined the Basij and IRGC as a teenager to fight in the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and transferred to LEC after the war.[68] Radan served as law enforcement deputy commander from 2008 to 2014, during which time he played critical roles in cracking down on the 2009 Green Movement and suppressing protests in Syria.[69] Radan traveled to Damascus in 2011 to meet with Syrian security services and support their crackdown against the Syrian people.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-13-2023

Hamas murdered her Israeli-Australian mother in kibbutz Be'eri.
Now Nicole Carbone has returned to say goodbye

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11...-kibbutz-where-her-mother-died/103097694

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEyt16L48kM

The CCP has always been hostile to the USA, but now the Chinese are hopeful to get a better relation with the Americans that would be great for the World.

lol
you need to be stupid to believe in that

you people in the USA and EUROPE needs to WAKE UP !
because what's been happening to us will happens to you if you will not vote for the right leaders who will not follow the liberals crazy ideas of immigration, and police defunding
and more of that progressive bullshit

operation. Israeli forces also released images, video, and statements saying that they discovered an ”operational headquarters.”[5] The images and video show a limited amount of equipment labeled with Hamas insignia and iconography.[6] This refutes the Hamas claims that it was not using the hospital for any military purposes.

Israeli forces also provided humanitarian aid to the al Shifa Hospital. A senior Israeli official told the Wall Street Journal that Israeli forces left portable incubators, baby food, and medical supplies at the hospital’s front gate and the staff was informed they could take the supplies.[8] The same official added that the incubators could be used in ambulances to transport babies to safer areas in southern Gaza or to Egypt or Israel. The official presumably meant via the evacuation corridor Israel established east of the hospital that most likely connects to Salah al Din Road. Salah al Din Road is the primary north-south humanitarian corridor that Israel established early in the war.[9] The senior Israeli official said that the final decision on where to take the babies would be up to doctors in the hospital.

Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have attacked Israeli forces east of the hospital—where Israel is attempting to establish an evacuation corridor—on several occasions since November 10. Israeli officials reported on November 14 that Hamas fired on the humanitarian corridor.[12] This is consistent with reporting from official media arms of Palestinian militias, local reporters, independent news aggregators, and Western media highlighting Hamas and PIJ attacks targeting Israeli forces east of the hospital. A Gaza-focused account on X (Twitter) said that Hamas fighters attacked Israeli forces northeast of the hospital on November 10, and PIJ reported on November 11 and November 13 that it was engaged in ”fierce clashes” near the al Shifa Hospital.[13] A Palestinian journalist reported that Hamas fighters attacked an Israeli unit east of al Shifa on November 11.[14] Satellite imagery from November 14 also showed large smoke plumes caused by fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters east of the hospital and along the area that presumably connects al Shifa to Salah al Din Road.[15] Palestinian fighters also fired at Israeli forces approaching the hospital compound from the east on November 14.

Palestinian militia fighters continued to harass Israeli forces in southern Gaza City governorate on November 15 using indirect fire and improvised explosive devices (IED). The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli forces entering Juhor ad Dik, presumably from Israel.[17] The group also fired unspecified rockets targeting IDF units near al Azhar University and al Nour Resort, west of Juhor ad Dik.[18] The al Qassem brigades fired short-range 114mm rockets targeting Israeli forces in the same general vicinity, south of Gaza City.[19] Al Qassem Brigades infantry separately ambushed IDF infantry and a bulldozer using anti-armor and anti-personnel IEDs east of Juhor ad Dik.[20] It is notable that no Palestinian militant organization has released footage demonstrating their ability to destroy Israeli armor since the ground operation began.

Israeli forces continued their clearing operations in northwestern Gaza City on November 14-15. Palestinian fighters continued attacks targeting Israeli forces in northwestern Gaza City, which is consistent with the doctrinal definition of clearing operations.[21] Palestinian fighters engaged IDF forces with small arms near al Mukhabarat Street, western Gaza City, on November 14.[22] The Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade fired 60mm mortars at IDF armor and infantry near the al Maqousi area, west of Sheikh Radwan on November 15.[23]

Qatari mediators continued efforts to facilitate an agreement between Hamas and Israel to release 50 civilian hostages in return for a three-day ceasefire.[24] Israel would also release some Palestinian women and children and increase the amount of aid to Gaza.[25] Officials familiar with the negotiations said that Hamas agreed to the deal’s “general outlines” but Israel is continuing to negotiate on some details.[26] Israeli War Cabinet member Benny Gantz said that even if Israel needs to “pause” fighting, it will not stop the war until Israel “achieves its goals.”[27]

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad said on November 14 that it will hold its hostages until it obtains a “better” deal from Israel to exchange Palestinian prisoners for hostages.[28]

Palestinian militias conducted four attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on November 15. The al Quds Brigades claimed three indirect fire attacks.[29] Unspecified Palestinian fighters launched one anti-tank guided missile targeting Israeli forces near Kissufim.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

•Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian militia fighters conducted 14 attacks on Israeli security forces in the West Bank on November 15.[31] The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Quds Brigades engaged Israeli forces in four small arms clashes and detonated four IEDs targeting Israeli forces in several areas in Tulkarm on November 14.[32] The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Quds Brigades announced that seven of its members died during the clashes.[33] The Tulkarm Rapid Response Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade separately engaged Israeli security forces with small arms fire in Tulkarm on November 15.[34] The Hornets' Nest of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, which operates in the Jenin camp, announced on November 14 that Israeli forces had arrested two of its members.[35] CTP-ISW recorded one anti-Israel demonstration in Ramallah.

Hamas said on November 15 that Israeli forces detained dozens of students at Hebron University.[37] The IDF said on November 15 it had arrested 28 “wanted persons” in the West Bank, including Hamas fighters, in an ongoing arrest campaign.[38] The IDF said that it had arrested Hamas operatives in a “student dormitory,” likely referring to Hebron University.[39] Hamas also called for an escalation in attacks against Israeli forces in the West Bank by “all available means.” Hamas has repeatedly called for attacks and demonstrations in the West Bank since the Israel-Hamas war began, but the calls have so far failed to generate widespread attacks or protests.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 9 cross-border attacks into northern Israel on November 15. LH claimed five rocket and ATGM attacks on IDF soldiers and military bases and one ATGM attack on an unspecified Israeli vehicle near the border.[41] Unidentified fighters launched rockets and anti-tank missiles towards Kiryat Shmona and Baranit, respectively.[42] IDF Army Radio stated the rocket attacks on Kiryat Shmona caused no casualties or damage and that the IDF responded with artillery fire toward the location from which the rockets were launched.

[u]Iran and Axis of Resistance[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi proxies—claimed one attack on a US base in Iraq. The group claimed to have fired rockets at Ain al Assad Base in Anbar Province on November 15.[44] Iranian-backed militias have targeted US forces at Ain al Assad Base 18 times since mid-October, making it the most frequently targeted US base in the region.

A US Navy warship shot down a Houthi drone headed toward it over the Red Sea on November 15.[45]
The USS Thomas Hudner, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, is a different US warship than the one that intercepted the several Houthi drones and cruise missiles fired toward Israel on October 19.[46] Unidentified US officials speaking to Reuters did not specify if the drone was an attack or surveillance model. The drone interception came hours after Houthi military spokesperson Brig. Gen Yahya Sarea claimed responsibility for the November 14 ballistic missile attack on Eilat in southern Israel.[47] Sarea stated that the Houthi army plans to continue attacks on Israel and that will target Israeli ships in the Red Sea. Sarea’s statement parallels Houthi movement Leader Abdul Malik al Houthi’s threat to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea and the Bab al Mandeb Strait on November 14.[48] The Houthis have the capability to conduct such attacks because the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force has provided the Houthis the means to do so.

Likely Iranian-backed militants launched two rockets into the Golan Heights from Syria on November 14.Local Syrian media reported militants fired rockets from Tell Jumou in Daraa Province at unspecified targets in the Golan Heights and Israeli forces returned mortar fire.[51] This brief exchange of fire in Syria does not mark an escalation of the conflict. Iranian-backed militants or Syrian Arab Army forces have fired projectiles into the Golan Heights from Syria at least 11 times since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

Russian forces are trying to distance themselves from Iranian escalation against US forces and Israel in Syria. Local media Deir ez Zor 24 reported that the Russian general for Deir ez Zor Province ordered local mayors and sheikhs to report all Iranian-backed militia members attempting to attack US forces at Conoco Gas Field.[53] The general extended the surveillance demand to seven towns on the east bank of the Euphrates near US positions. Iranian-backed militants fired at least 15 rockets at Conoco on November 14, likely from sites near the seven towns.[54] The United States has conducted three retaliatory attacks on Iranian-backed militant positions in Deir ez Zor since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.[55] Russia instructed the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to not co-locate with Iranian-backed militants in southern Syria and not participate in the Israel-Hamas war to avoid Israeli airstrikes, according to UK based anti-regime Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.[56] An Israeli airstrike that targeted an SAA ammunition position in late October was located less than a kilometer away from a Russian military camp in Daraa Province.[57] Israel also conducted airstrikes on the SAA 112th Mechanized Brigade in Daraa Province on November 12 after militants fired projectiles into the Golan Heights the day before.

Western media reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei complained that Hamas did not warn Iran about its October 7 attack during his meeting with Hamas Political Bureau Head Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on November 5, citing Iranian and Hamas officials.[59] Reuters also reported that Khamenei warned Haniyeh that Iran would not “enter the war on your behalf” and pressured the Hamas leader to silence his group members calling for Iran and LH to fully join the war against Israel.

• Western media previously reported that American intelligence officials have obtained information suggesting that Iranian officials were surprised by Hamas’ October 7 attack.[60] Western media reported that while Iranian officials were aware that Hamas was planning the attack, they were not aware of the timing or scale.[61] Some Western media has also reported that Iranian officials were directly involved in planning and preparation for the attack, including training Hamas militants inside Iran in the weeks before October 7.[62]
• It is noteworthy that Iranian officials and media have been conducting two separate information operations, denying any Iranian involvement in or foreknowledge of the attack on the one hand and emphasizing Iranian support for Hamas and the Palestinian resistance on the other, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

The United States extended its original July sanctions waiver permitting Iraqi payments for Iranian electricity on November 14.[64] The sanctions waiver permits the transfer of Iraqi payments for Iranian electricity to restricted bank accounts in third countries for the purchase of non-sanctioned goods. The United States previously issued a similar sanctions waiver in July 2023, permitting Iranian access to roughly 2.7 billion dollars of Iraqi payments, as CTP-ISW reported.[65] Western media reports did not specify whether Iran would now have access to the same or a greater portion of the roughly 10 billion dollars in Iraqi payments being held in escrow accounts inside Iraq.

IRGC-affiliated media separately recirculated US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller’s statement that Iran would be capable of purchasing only non-sanctioned goods on November 15.[66] The Ebrahim Raisi administration-affiliated outlet IRNA and Iranian Supreme National Security Council-affiliated outlet Nour News Agency recirculated reports about the sanctions waiver on November 14. These outlets additionally argued that the Biden administration should not prevent Iran from accessing its frozen assets in Iraq since Iran played no role in Hamas’ October 7 attack into Israel, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court issued a ruling to remove Iraqi Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed al Halbousi and Representative Laith al Dulaimi from parliament on November 14.[68] he Federal Supreme Court has not published an opinion at the time of publication. Halbousi, an important Sunni politician and ­the leader of the Taqqadum Movement, claimed that the Federal Supreme Court’s ruling was unconstitutional and was a move by unspecified parties to create political divisions within society.[69] He also announced that the Deputy Prime Minister of Planning Muhammad Ali Tamim, Minister of Industry and Minerals Khaled Battan al Najm, and Minister of Culture, Tourism, and Antiquities Ahmed Fakak al Badrani, all members of the Taqqadum party, would resign in protest and boycott Parliament sessions and State Administration Coalition meetings. All 43 members of the Taqqadum party boycotted the extraordinary parliamentary session held on November 15.[70] Halbousi adjourned parliament “until further notice” after being informed of his removal.[71] Dulaimi’s lawyer claimed that the Federal Supreme Court ruled to remove Halbousi as speaker after reviewing forgery accusations brought against Halbousi by his client Laith al Dulaimi and Representative Basem Khashan.[72] The Coordination Framework expressed its full support for the Iraqi Supreme Court's decision to remove Halbousi during a meeting held on November 15.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-15-2023

We need the Chinese and they need the Western world in trade if China wants a communist regime who are we to fight that. Chinese don't want to fight.

that's true
they will not fight the us
unless biden and the democrats will have another win in 2024 and china will probably invade taiwan
but overall they are smart by the way that they do their stuff
they don't get into conflicts, that's true.

Last warning, Meyer--no political posts here or on any Boards!

IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 19, 2023
Nov 19, 2023 - ISW Press










Iran Update, November 19, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel–Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Key Takeaways:

1. The Washington Post reported that Israel and Hamas are nearing an agreement for a five-day pause in fighting.
2. Israel published CCTV footage showing Hamas militia fighters taking hostages to al Shifa Hospital during the October 7 attack. The IDF uncovered a tunnel system underneath al Shifa Hospital, which is consistent with Israel’s repeated assertions that Hamas uses humanitarian infrastructure for military activities.
3. Israeli forces continued their advance from the coast eastward into Gaza City.
4. The al Qassem Brigades conducted a complex attack on an Israeli combat outpost in the Nasr neighborhood of Gaza City.
5. Palestinian militia fighters engaged Israeli forces in six small-arms clashes across the West Bank.
6. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 21 cross-border attacks, including at least one infiltration, into northern Israel.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it launched a one-way attack drone targeting US forces at al Harir airbase, Erbil province, Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
8. Houthi fighters hijacked an Israeli-owned, Japanese-operated freighter transiting the Red Sea.
9. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei visited the IRGC Aerospace Force permanent exhibition at the Ashura Aerospace Science and Technology University in Tehran.
10. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held a phone call with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to discuss the Israel–Hamas war.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

The Washington Post reported on November 18 that Israel and Hamas are nearing an agreement for a five-day pause in fighting. Sources familiar with the emerging terms said that the US-brokered deal would free dozens of women and children held hostage in the Gaza Strip, according to the Washington Post report.[1] The five-day pause would be the first sustained pause in conflict since the Israel–Hamas war began.[2] The six-page set of written terms would require all parties to the conflict to freeze combat operations for at least five days while Palestinian militias release 50 or more hostages in small batches every 24 hours.[3] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) estimated on November 17 that there are 237 hostages in the Gaza Strip.[4] US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said on November 19 that negotiations to secure the release of hostages are closer than at any point since negotiations began.[5] Qatar’s prime minister said there is "good progress” on the issue of releasing hostages.

Israel published CCTV footage showing Hamas militia fighters taking hostages to al Shifa Hospital during the October 7 attack. The IDF and Israeli Security Agency published drone footage on November 19 of a 55-meter-long tunnel 10 meters underneath the hospital.[9] Israeli forces located the tunnel underneath a shed near a vehicle full of weapons, including rocket propelled grenades (RPG), other explosives, and small arms.

Israeli forces continued their advance from the coast eastward into Gaza City. Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in the Sheikh Ijlin and Rimal neighborhoods as part of an Israeli effort to locate and destroy militia infrastructure and assets.[11] The forces located and raided a Hamas military intelligence site and located weapons caches and seven rocket launchers.[12] The IDF said the forces have interrogated over a hundred fighters, including three members of Hamas’ Nukhba special force, which took part in the October 7 attacks.[13] The IDF Nahal Brigade moved from al Shati refugee camp toward Jabalia city to support offensive operations in the area.[14]

Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces advancing into Gaza City. Local media reported that Palestinian militia fighters are fighting with Israeli forces in the streets of Jabalia.[15] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—and the al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several hit-and-run attacks on Israeli forces and military vehicles, including one combined operation.[16] These attacks primarily use small arms, RPGs, and tandem rockets against Israeli forces as they clear areas.[17] The al Qassem Brigades published footage of a cache of IDF military equipment including uniforms, helmets, an identification tag, and various weapons.[18] There is no indication of where or when the militia fighters obtained the items.

Israel urged civilians in several neighborhoods to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip using an evacuation corridor on the Salah al Din Highway.[19] The IDF said Hamas has lost control over the northern Gaza Strip and is trying to prevent civilians from moving southward.[20] The Israeli Army Radio said only 25 percent of residents in Jabalia have evacuated.

The al Qassem Brigades conducted a complex attack on an Israeli combat outpost in the Nasr neighborhood of Gaza City. The group published a video of three militia fighters conducting a “martyrdom operation” at the Rantisi Specialist Hospital in the al Nasr neighborhood, where Israeli forces have established a combat outpost since November 13.[22] The militia fighters were armed with small arms and fired an RPG at the hospital.[23] A local media outlet said the fighters are part of “suicide squads.”

Palestinian militia fighters continued attacks targeting Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to ambush and fire tandem charge, anti-tank rockets and small arms at Israeli forces near Juhor ad Dik.[25] The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli positions at the al Nour resort near Juhor ad Dik.[26] The al Quds Brigades also clashed with Israeli forces in Beit Hanoun and mortared Israeli positions in Beit Lahia.

Palestinian militias continued their usual rate of indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The al Quds Brigades claimed to launch two rocket attacks into southern Israel. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to launch one rocket attack at an Israeli military base in southern Israel.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian militia fighters engaged Israeli forces in six small-arms clashes across the West Bank on November 19.[29] Palestinian militia fighters detonated improvised explosive devices (IEDs) four times targeting Israeli forces and an Israeli armored vehicle during an IDF raid in Jenin.[30] The Jenin Brigade of the al Quds Brigades said that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces in multiple areas in Jenin and detonated several IEDs.[31] The same group also claimed that the IEDs damaged several Israeli military vehicles. The Jenin Brigade of the al Qassem Brigades claimed that its members clashed with Israeli forces during the IDF raid.[32] The IDF confiscated over 10 small arms, located several IED warehouses, uncovered buried IEDs, an IED manufacturing site, and detained 20 people in its raids of Jenin and Balata camps.[33] Palestinian militia fighters also detonated one IED targeting Israeli forces in Dheisheh refugee camp.[34]

CTP-ISW separately recorded one demonstration against Israel in Ramallah.[35] The Palestinian Prisoners’ and Ex-Prisoners’ Affairs Authority stated Israeli forces arrested at least 70 Palestinians from the West Bank on November 19.[36] The IDF said that it arrested 38 “wanted persons” across the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 21 cross-border attacks, including at least one infiltration, into northern Israel on November 19.[38] LH claimed 14 attacks using anti-tank munitions, rockets, and mortars targeting Israeli forces and military infrastructure.[39] The IDF killed two unspecified fighters near Shtula on November 19 after the fighters entered northern Israel from southern Lebanon.[40]

The IDF reported that multiple drones penetrated Israeli airspace in the Upper Galilee region on November 19.[41] The IDF intercepted two drones.[42] Israeli media reported that “it was suspected” the drones carried explosives.[43] IDF- and LH-affiliated media reported drone intercepts near Dalton and Hatzor Haglilit on November 19.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it launched one-way attack drone targeting US forces at al Harir airbase, Erbil province, Kurdistan Region of Iraq on November 19.[45] This attack marks the eighth Iranian-backed attack on al Harir airbase that CTP-ISW has recorded since the Israel–Hamas war began.

Houthi fighters hijacked an Israeli-owned, Japanese-operated freighter transiting the Red Sea on November 19.[46] Houthi fighters fast roped onto the deck of the Galaxy Leader from a helicopter.[47] The Houthi fighters took 25 crew members hostage.[48] The IDF spokesperson confirmed that there were no Israelis aboard.[49] Israeli billionaire Rami Ungar owns the ship.[50] Senior Houthi officials have repeatedly threatened to target Israeli shipping in the Red Sea in recent weeks.[51] This attack marks the first instance in which the Houthis have acted on these recent threats. The Israeli government said that the Houthis hijacked the ship under Iranian "guidance.”[52] The IRGC Quds Force maintains a minor naval presence off Yemen’s coast in the Red Sea that it uses to surveil maritime traffic in support of Houthi attacks on commercial tankers and "to facilitate smuggling of personnel and materials into Yemen.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei visited the IRGC Aerospace Force permanent exhibition at the Ashura Aerospace Science and Technology University in Tehran on November 19.[54] Khamenei condemned Western support for Israel’s “racial discrimination” of Palestinians and called on Muslim states to cut ties with Israel.[55] Iran has been attempting to rally Arab and Muslim states against Israel since the Israel–Hamas War began, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[56]

Khamenei also inspected newly unveiled military equipment at the facility, including the Shahed-149 combat drone and the Fattah-2 hypersonic cruise missile. The Shahed-149, labeled “Gaza” in published photos, resembles the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to observers.[57] Iranian state media separately emphasized the Fattah-2's purported ability to penetrate and target high-altitude ballistic missile defense systems.[58] Israel used its Arrow-3 ballistic missile defense system to intercept incoming Houthi missiles on November 9.[59] Western media reported on October 24 that the United States will deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems to Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf Arab states.[60] CTP-ISW cannot verify the veracity of Iranian claims about the Fattah-2. Iran has previously made false or exaggerated claims about its military capabilities.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the Israel–Hamas war on November 19.[61] The two officials emphasized the need for an immediate ceasefire and the importance of delivering humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. Iranian and Russian officials have engaged in political coordination vis-a-vis the Israel–Hamas war since at least October 26, as CTP-ISW previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-19-2023

Israel: Fight against Hamas resumes • New attacks reported

Israel says Hamas violated pause in fighting
The Israeli army says it has resumed the fight against Hamas. It accuses Hamas of violating the ceasefire by firing rockets into Israel.

Based on Palestinian media, Reuters reports that Israel is carrying out further attacks in the north of the Gaza Strip.

Plumes of smoke over Gaza, Israel carries out air strikes
Plumes of smoke can be seen in images from the north of the Gaza Strip. According to Hamas, the Israeli army is carrying out artillery strikes there. The Israeli military says it is also currently carrying out airstrikes. According to Hamas, the south of the Gaza Strip is being bombarded.

Based on witnesses, news channel Al Jazeera reports heavy fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza City. Israeli tanks are also said to be shelling targets.

Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago
A blueprint reviewed by The Times laid out the plan for the Oct. 7 attack. Israeli officials dismissed it as aspirational and ignored specific warnings.

Terrible war Thanks to Hamas as expected Israel will wipe out Gaza till nothing is left

US Defense Secretary: Israel Risks Strategic Defeat

If Israel does not do more to avoid civilian deaths in the Gaza Strip or to limit settler violence in the West Bank, the country risks a strategic defeat in its war with the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas. This is what US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin says.
Speaking before a defense forum in California on Saturday, Austin harkened back to his experience as a military commander of troops in Iraq. "The lesson is not that you can win in urban warfare by protecting civilians. The lesson is that you can only win in urban warfare by protecting civilians," he said. "If you drive the civilian population into the arms of the enemy in this kind of fighting, you turn a tactical victory into a strategic defeat."
Before the start of the fighting pause on November 24, almost 14,900 people had been killed in the war in the Gaza Strip, according to the government there. Among them are 6,150 children and 4,000 women. The war that broke out on October 7 has also left some 36,000 people injured, according to Hamas. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations have taken place in many world cities.
Austin also reiterated America's call for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue. “We believe that Israelis and Palestinians must find a way to share the land they both call home,” he said. “It would make this tragedy worse if all that awaited Israelis and Palestinians at the end of this terrible war was more uncertainty, more anger and more despair.”

The American newspaper The Wall Street Journal writes that Israel is considering filling Hamas tunnels with seawater. The Israeli army says it has carried out air strikes on Hezbollah.

Israel Gaza: Hamas raped and mutilated women on 7 October, BBC hears

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67629181

the things i saw
you don't wanna know...
i still have nightmares from all the stuff i saw... horrible

Stay strong bud. As men, we should be able to "chew out" all of the pressure and horror which is constantly trying to occupy our thoughts and mind on daily basis. I know some will say "its easy for you to say", well its not because I have many friends who went through the same bloody situations and as a medical doctor, Ive also seen lots of horrific stuff. Again, I know its tough but try to stay strong and also try to ignore all of the horror. I know its a different mindset but you have to try it. Cheers

thank you very much !

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 6, 2023
Dec 6, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF




Iran Update, December 6, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Peter Mills, Amin Soltani, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces are operating in Khan Younis as part of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s effort to target senior Hamas commanders. Palestinian militias claimed several attacks along Israeli lines of advance in Khan Younis.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia and the Shujaiya neighborhood of eastern Gaza City.
3. Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters engaged in 15 clashes across the West Bank.
4. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel is pursuing diplomacy to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which bans Lebanese Hezbollah from positioning military forces south of the Litani River.
5. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 10 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq on December 5 and 6.
7. The Houthi movement said that it launched several ballistic missiles targeting Eilat in southern Israel on December 6.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces are operating in Khan Younis as part of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s effort to target senior Hamas commanders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on December 6 that the Israeli military had encircled Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar’s house in Khan Younis.[1] Residents in the area told Reuters that Israeli tanks neared his home.[2] IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that Sinwar is likely underground in Hamas’ extensive tunnel network.[3] Israel has claimed repeatedly that senior political and military Hamas leadership, including Sinwar and Hamas’ military chief Mohammed Deif, are hiding in Khan Younis.[4]

The IDF 98th Paratrooper Division led the attack on Khan Younis to target Hamas’ ”centers of gravity,” which is presumably a reference to Hamas’ critical command node in the city.[5] The IDF said that its forces encircled the city after it broke through Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade’s defenses. The IDF reported that it began conducting targeted raids within the city.[6] The IDF issued urgent warnings to residents in the Khan Younis area against traveling on the Salah al Din Road as Israeli forces are operating on parts of the road.[7] The Israeli Air Force attacked 250 targets across the Gaza Strip on December 6, targeting weapons, tunnels, IEDs, and other military infrastructure.[8] Hagari stated that the four IDF divisions operating across the Gaza Strip are fighting with a high intensity as they break down defensive lines.

Palestinian militias claimed several attacks along Israeli lines of advance in Khan Younis The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that its fighters detonated a house-borne improvised device (HBIED) targeting Israeli forces east of Khan Younis on December 6.[10] The use of more sophisticated tactics, such as rigging a house to explode, is consistent with Hamas’ shift from less sophisticated to more sophisticated tactics after the end of the humanitarian pause.[11] The al Qassem Brigades claimed several other indirect and direct fire attacks using anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), small arms, and mortars.[12] Other Palestinian militias allied with Hamas also attacked the IDF near Khan Younis. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that it used a high-explosive fragmentation grenade and mortars to attack Israeli forces, east of Khan Younis.[13] Bani Suheila residents reported on December 6 that Israeli forces reached Bani Suheila.[14] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Resistance Committees —claimed that its fighters fought Israeli forces advancing in Khan Younis.[15] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—a self-affiliated militant wing of Fatah—claimed that its fighters targeted an Israeli tank with an anti-tank munition east of Khan Younis.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia on December 6. The IDF stated its Nahal Brigade fought Palestinian fighters in Jabalia on December 6.[17] The IDF announced it had “encircled” the neighborhood and was operating at its “core” on December 5.[18] Geolocated footage posted on December 5 shows armed clashes between Palestinian fighters and Israeli troops that occurred near Kamal Idwan Hospital on the northern border of Jabalia.[19] The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reported Israeli tanks fired at the hospital’s main generator on December 5, indicating Israeli forces advanced into Jabalia.[20] The IDF said its fighters operating in Jabalia recovered one of the largest stockpiles of weapons in the Gaza Strip, consisting of hundreds of missiles and launchers, long-range rockets, RPGs, drones, and explosively formed penetrators.[21]

The al Qassem Brigades attacked Israeli military vehicles along the Israeli line of advance in the Beit Lahia Project area, just north of Jabalia.[22] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades said that its fighters fought field coordination with the al Qassem Brigades and the al Quds Brigades in neighborhoods near Jabalia camp including Tal al Zaatar, Kamal Adwan, and al Fallujah.[23] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades is a loose group of local militias and the third largest armed group in the Gaza Strip.

The IDF also continued clearing operations in the Shujaiya neighborhood of eastern Gaza City. The IDF said on December 5 that it was in the “core” of Shujaiya on December 5.[25] The al Quds Brigades attacked Israeli forces on the lines of advance into Shujaiya with IEDs, RPGs, and anti-armor shells.[26] The al Quds Brigades also fired anti-tank rockets at Israeli forces advancing into Shujaiya from the al Tuffah neighborhood, northwest of Shujaiya.[27] The al Qassem Brigades posted a video of its fighters attacking Israeli military vehicles with anti-tank rockets in the Shujaiya neighborhood on December 5.[28] The video included a burning Israeli Merkava tank in Shujaiya.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted seven indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 6. The al Qassem Brigades conducted six rocket attacks targeting southern Israel.[30] The al Quds Brigades conducted one rocket attack.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters engaged in 15 clashes across the West Bank on December 6. This level of violence is consistent with the daily average rate of clashes in the West Bank over the last seven days. Palestinian fighters, including al Qassem Brigades fighters, engaged Israeli forces in two small arms clashes and detonated at least two IEDs targeting Israeli vehicles as Israeli units conducted raids in Jenin.[32] Palestinian fighters also detonated five other IEDs targeting Israeli forces and engaged Israeli forces in seven other small arms clashes elsewhere in the West Bank.[33] Palestinians demonstrated against Israeli operations in Gaza in Ramallah and Tulkarm on December 6.[34]

The IDF said that its forces arrested 16 wanted persons, three of whom were affiliated with Hamas, in the West Bank on December 6.

[u]Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel is pursuing diplomacy to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which bans Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) from positioning military forces south of the Litani River.[36] Gallant met with mayors and local council heads in Nahariya, northern Israel, on December 6.[37] Israel evacuated thousands of northern Israelis from their homes after the October 7 attacks.[38] Gallant “promised” that northern Israelis will not return to their homes before Lebanese Hezbollah military forces are north of the Litani River. Gallant said that the “best option” is for a diplomatic agreement in which unspecified actors would enforce UN Security Resolution 1701. The resolution, which ended the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War, created a demilitarized zone between the Blue Line and the Litani.[39] Gallant said that if diplomatic measures fail Israel will use its military to force LH north of the river, according to the Times of Israel.

Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 10 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon on December 6.[40] This rate of attacks is consistent with the daily average. Unspecified fighters conducted three additional attacks into northern Israel, including a 16-rocket salvo targeting Matat, northern Israel.

[u]Iran and Axis of Resistance[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq on December 5 and 6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces on December 3, two days after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip ended on December 1. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and its affiliated groups have claimed 81 attacks against US forces in the Middle East since October 18.

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed two separate one-way drone attacks targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar province, Iraq, on December 5 and 6.[42] The group has claimed 24 attacks on Ain Asad Airbase since October 18.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting US forces at al Harir Airbase in Erbil province, Iraq, on December 6.[43] The group last claimed an attack on al Harir Airbase on November 22.

The Houthi movement said that it launched several ballistic missiles targeting Eilat in southern Israel on December 6.[45] The IDF reported that it intercepted a surface-to-surface missile over the Red Sea and said that the missile did not cross into Israeli territory.[46] The Houthi military spokesperson said that the Houthis will continue to target Israel until the end of the Israel-Hamas War.

The USS Carney shot down a likely Houthi drone over the southern Red Sea on December 6.[48] An unspecified US official told the Navy Times that the drone originated from Houthi-controlled territory. There were no injuries to US personnel or damage to the ship and it was not clear what the drone was targeting. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency also reported a drone incident west of the Houthi-controlled Hudaydah port in the southern Red Sea on December 6.[49] It is not clear if these are the same incidents.

Two unspecified sources “familiar with Saudi thinking” told Reuters that Saudi Arabia urged the United States to show restraint amid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The sources said that Saudi Arabia is “pleased” with the United States’ handling of the situation and wishes to avoid further escalation. Saudi Arabia is negotiating a bilateral peace agreement with the Houthis that seeks to secure Saudi Arabia’s exit from the war in Yemen.[51] Saudi efforts to encourage US restraint vis-a-vis the Houthis aim to protect this truce. The Houthis view the United States and Saudi Arabia as belligerents in the war against the Houthis.[52] The Houthis would likely therefore view a US retaliation against the Houthis as a violation of the Saudi-Houthi informal truce that began in April 2022.

An unspecified “Iran-aligned” source based in Tehran told Reuters that Houthi representatives discussed their attacks with Iranian officials in November, demonstrating continuing Houthi-Iranian coordination.[54] The source may have been referencing a meeting between the Houthi Ambassador to Iran Ibrahim al Daylami and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in Tehran on November 30.[55] The source said that the Houthi and Iranian representatives agreed that the Houthis would carry out attacks in a “controlled” way that would help force the end to the Israel-Hamas war. Another "Iran-aligned” source told Reuters that Iran does not want to become directly involved in an “all-out war in the region.”

Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Chinese Communist Party International Liaison Department head Liu Jianchao on December 6 in Tehran.[56] The two officials emphasized further cooperation between their countries to end the war.

Iranian First Vice President Mohammed Mokhber discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Omani Trade, Industry, and Development Minister Qais bin Mohammad al Youssef on December 6. Mokhber thanked al Youssef for Oman’s stance against Israeli “crimes” and criticized international institutions for not taking “serious” action to halt Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-6-2023

You're always welcome brave man and as I can see, most of us are supporting you. BUT by the end of the day no matter what happens with the state and the whole conflict, sill DONT forget your family and your mental stability (something which I previously mentioned). Cheers again bud and stay strong and safe.

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 8, 2023
Dec 8, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, December 8, 2023

Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, and Peter Mills

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.



[u]Key Takeaways:[/u]



1. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted an indirect fire attack targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 for the first time since 2021, marking a notable escalation in Iranian efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors' current campaign to remove US forces draws remarkable similarities to the 2021 campaign to force a US troop withdrawal from Iraq.
3. Israeli forces are destroying Hamas infrastructure in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist their advances.
4. Israeli forces are operating to dismantle Hamas in Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli forces also clashed with Palestinian fighters eight times across the West Bank.
5. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 10 indirect fire attacks into Israel.
6. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias claimed 13 attacks into northern Israel.
7. The IDF conducted multiple strikes on unspecified Iranian-backed targets in southern Syria on December 8 in retaliation for rocket strikes into the Golan Heights the day prior.
8. Unspecified militants conducted 9 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, according to a US journalist

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted an indirect fire attack targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 for the first time since 2021, marking a notable escalation in Iranian efforts to expel US forces from Iraq. An unidentified US military official reported that unidentified militants fired multiple rockets at the US Embassy in Baghdad and Forward Operating Base (FOB) Union III, landing near the embassy’s gates and in the river nearby.[1] An unidentified US embassy spokesperson confirmed that the perpetrators launched two salvos of rockets toward the US Embassy compound at approximately 0415 local time.[2] An anonymous US military official separately told Western media that seven mortar rounds landed in the US Embassy compound, causing minor damage but no casualties.[3] An anonymous Iraqi security official claimed that three Katyusha rockets were fired at the embassy but fell in the vicinity of the Green Zone.[4] No group has claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing.

Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zaidan met with US Ambassador Alina Romanowski on December 8, likely to discuss Iranian-backed Iraqi actors’ efforts to use legal and political pressure to try to expel the United States from Iraq. Iraqi media reported that Zaidan and Romanowski discussed the constitutional and legal foundations “for addressing all the problems that Iraq and the region are going through.”[5] Zaidan and Romanowski’s meeting follows the Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee’s December 6 announcement that is has drafted a resolution to expel US forces from Iraq.[6] Zaidan is a close political ally of Tehran.[7] He recently met with Romanowski on November 17 to discuss the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court’s decision to remove former Iraqi Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Halbousi from office and the necessity of an independent judiciary.[8] CTP-ISW previously hypothesized that Halbousi was removed from his post as part of political efforts to reduce the US presence in Iraq.

Iranian-backed Iraqi actors' current campaign to remove US forces draws remarkable similarities to the 2021 campaign to force a US troop withdrawal from Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are pursuing political and military means to force US forces to withdraw from Iraq. The Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee presented a draft resolution to expel US forces, arguing that the United States' recent strikes in Iraq were a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.[10] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the current attack campaign is meant to impose a cost on the United States for supporting Israel while also eroding American willingness to remain militarily in Iraq and Syria.[11] Iraq’s Council of Representatives similarly passed a non-binding resolution in January 2020 to remove US forces from Iraq following IRGC-QF Commander Qasem Soleimani’s death.[12] Iranian-backed Iraqi proxies intensified their attack campaign on US forces in frequency and expanded geographically in from 2020 to 2021 to pressure former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi to force US forces to withdraw from Iraq.[13] Kadhimi and US President Joe Biden signed an agreement in July 2021 agreeing to a troop drawdown that allowed for 2,500 military advisors to remain in Iraq to support Iraqi Security Forces under Operation Inherent Resolve.

[u]Gaza Strip[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces are destroying Hamas infrastructure in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist their advances. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 8 that its ground, air, and naval forces continued the offensive in Khan Younis, which it claims is a main stronghold for Hamas.[15] Israeli forces are clashing with Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in targeted raids while seizing various weapon systems and intelligence materials.[16] The IDF 7th Brigade engaged in a multi-hour complex attack on Palestinian militias, some of whom were preparing to fire rockets at Israel.[17] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on December 8 shows recently flattened terrain in areas between the two Israeli advances toward Khan Younis, which suggests that the IDF have linked up. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed to target Israeli forces with rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) at a school in between the two Israeli advances.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters detonated a house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) targeting Israeli forces east of Khan Younis on December 8.[19] The use of more sophisticated tactics, such as rigging a house to explode, is consistent with Hamas’ shift from less sophisticated to more sophisticated tactics after the end of the humanitarian pause.[20] The al Qassem Brigades claimed seven attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip using RPGs, including anti-tank RPGs, mortars, and small arms.[21] Other Palestinian militias allied with Hamas also attacked the IDF near Khan Younis. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—mortared Israeli forces on the Israeli line of advance east of Khan Younis.[22] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed that its militia fighters fired mortars at Israeli vehicles and clashed with Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis.[23] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—fired mortars and anti-tank munitions at Israeli forces on the eastern Israeli line of advance into Khan Younis.

Israeli forces are attempting to dismantle Hamas in Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip The 7th Brigade began an offensive to break through Hamas’ defensive lines in the central and southern Gaza Strip, which included raiding a Deir al Balah Battalion position.[25] Israeli naval forces struck Hamas observation posts and weapons storage facilities in the central Gaza Strip.[26] The Deir al Balah Battalion, which is part of Hamas’ Central Brigade, released a training video prior to October 7 of its militia fighters practicing close-quarters combat in urban environments.[27] The al Quds Brigades claimed that its militia fighters clashed with Israeli forces using anti-tank RPGs and small arms on the axes of Israeli advances east of Deir al Balah.[28] Palestinian militias have claimed attacks on Israeli forces in Deir al Balah since December 3.[29]

Israeli forces initially advanced into the southern Gaza Strip along the intersection of two of Hamas’ battalions’—the Central and Khan Younis Battalions—area of operations.[30] The IDF declared the Salah al Din Road between southern Deir al Balah and Khan Younis a combat zone on December 2 and moved eastward to secure the Salah al Din Road south of Deir al Balah on or before December 3.[31] The Israeli presence along the seam of two Hamas battalions could create operational challenges for Hamas to coordinate a defense of Khan Younis.

Israeli media reported that Hamas is defending Shujaiya neighborhood in Gaza city. A Lebanese Hezbollah telegram channel reposted Israeli news site Yedioth Ahronoth’s claim that Hamas members have not fled and are fighting fiercely in the Shujaiya neighborhood.[32] An Israeli commander operating in Shujaiya noted that Hamas military infrastructure, such as tunnel shafts, is in most homes and schoosl in the neighborhood.[33] Shujaiya is one of the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip.[34] Hamas militia fighters and Israeli forces engaged in a multi-day battle in Shujaiya in 2014 where the IDF took 16 casualties.[35]

The IDF continued clearing operations in Shujaiya neighborhood on December 8 as Palestinian militias claimed attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles. The IDF said on December 8 that the 188th Brigade and Counter-Terrorism Unit forces operated at the heart of Shujaiya and defended against an attempted al Qassem Brigades ambush.[36] The al Qassem Brigades used anti-tank RPGs on six Israeli military vehicles in Sheikh Radwan and al Zaytoun neighborhoods in Gaza city.[37] The al Quds Brigades fighters claimed two tandem-charged RPG and grenade attacks on Israeli forces on advancing axes in the Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods.[38] An unspecified Israeli source quoted by Palestinian media said that the al Qassem Brigades are continuing to launch rockets targeting Tel Aviv from Shujaiya and Jabalia neighborhoods.

The IDF acknowledged its forces failed to extract a hostage from Hamas custody in the Gaza Strip on December 8. The IDF said that two of its soldiers were injured during the operation and no hostages were rescued.[40] The IDF did not say if the hostage was killed and accused Hamas of attempting psychological warfare against Israel.[41] The al Qassem Brigades said hostage Sa’ar Baruch died during a clash with Israeli forces on December 8 as fighters thwarted the attempt to rescue Baruch.[42] The al Qassem Brigades also claimed an unspecified number of hostages died in Israeli airstrikes.

Palestinian militias are using more sophisticated tactics to confront the IDF’s advance into Jabalia and have had some success. The IDF confirmed that Israeli war cabinet minister Gadi Eizenkot’s son died while fighting in the northern Gaza Strip on December 7.[44] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters killed the soldier when they detonated an IED on a tunnel door on the eastward line of advance into Jabalia.[45] The al Quds Brigades claimed an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) attack on the western Israeli line of advance into Jabalia on December 8.[46] This is consistent with Palestinian militias' use of increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip after the end of the humanitarian pause.[47] Hamas and other Palestinian militias have used EFPs six times since December 1 and are increasingly rigging houses and tunnel infrastructure with explosives.

Israeli forces continued to uncover Hamas military infrastructure in cleared areas on December 8. IDF 749th Reserve Engineering Battalion destroyed Hamas military infrastructure, located kilometer-long tunnel routes, and seized EPFs, rocket parts, and launchers at al Azhar University in northern Gaza city’s Rimal neighborhood.[49] The IDF 14th Brigade raided a Hamas observation room containing hundreds of radios, dozens of cameras, magazines, a combat shaft, grenades, and other unspecified military equipment around the al Shati medical center.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 10 indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 8. This is consistent with the weekly average after a decline on December 7.[51] The al Qassem Brigades conducted five rocket attacks, including three salvos targeting Tel Aviv.[52] The al Qassem Brigades published a video of their forces using long-range M-90 rockets to target Tel Aviv.[53] The al Quds Brigades conducted four rocket attacks.[54] One rocket attack went unclaimed.

[u]West Bank[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters eight times across the West Bank on December 8.[56] Palestinian fighters engaged Israeli forces in small arms clashes eight times near major cities in the West Bank, including Hebron and Ramallah. Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces during Israeli raids in the Fara refugee camp in the northern West Bank.[57] Hamas announced that six of its fighters died during raids in the Fara camp on December 8.[58]

West Bank residents held four anti-Israel demonstrations in the West Bank on December 8.

Palestinian militias called for an escalation in attacks and demonstrations in the West Bank on December 8. Hamas called on fighters in the West Bank to avenge the deaths of fighters killed in the West Bank “by all possible means.”[60] The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said that Israeli forces plan to increase operations in the West Bank and that ”a response will inevitably come.”[61] The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—claimed that it conducted 14 attacks across the West Bank during an unspecified period and called for further attacks.[62] The Lion’s Den last called for mobilization against Israeli forces in the West Bank on November 9.

The Lions’ Den continued to emphasize its alignment with Hamas. The Lions’ Den said that the West Bank will be “nothing but a sword and a shield“ for Mohammed Deif and Saleh al Arouri.[64] Mohammed Deif is the commander of Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades and Saleh al Arouri is the Hamas Political Bureau deputy chairman. This statement marks a change from previous Lions’ Den claims that the group has no affiliation with other Palestinian militias.

[u]Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militias claimed 13 attacks into northern Israel on December 8. LH claimed ten attacks, all of which targeted Israeli military facilities along the Lebanese border.[66] IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari reported that Israel’s air defense system intercepted a “suspicious aerial target” that entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon.[67] Unidentified militants launched two separate rocket attacks on Israeli forces at Shtula and Maalot Tarshiha injuring two IDF soldiers.

The IDF conducted multiple strikes on unspecified Iranian-backed targets in southern Syria on December 8 in retaliation for rocket strikes into the Golan Heights the day prior.[69] LH-affiliated al Mayadeen claimed that the Israeli strike killed four Iranian-backed militants near al Baath and al Hamidiya, Quneitra Province.[70] Iran and Iranian-backed militias have deployed militants to Quneitra Province since October 9 to support Axis of Resistance efforts to threaten Israel on multiple fronts, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Unspecified militants conducted 5 attacks on US forces in Iraq on December 8, according to a US journalist.[72] Unspecified militants conducted two attacks on Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for one of the attacks, which it conducted using rockets.[73] An Iraqi OSINT X (Twitter) account claimed that the second attack was also a rocket attack.[74] CTP-ISW cannot verify this claim. Unspecified militants conducted two attacks on Erbil Airport in northern Iraq and one attack on al Harir Airbase in Erbil Province, Iraq.

Unspecified militants conducted 4 attacks on US forces in Syria on December 8, according to the same US journalist.[75] Unspecified militants conducted two attacks on the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Hasakah Province, Syria. Unspecified militants conducted an attack on the US base Conoco Mission Support Site in northeastern Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for this attack, which it carried out using rockets.[76] Unspecified militants conducted an attack targeting US forces stationed at al Shaddadi, Hasakah Province, Syria.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in a phone call with PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah on December 8.[77] Abdollahian described Iranian diplomatic efforts to support Palestinians, including President Ebrahim Raisi’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 7. Nakhalah presented a report on the most recent developments in the war and on Palestinian resistance groups’ “complete readiness” to confront Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip and to defend Gazans.

Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous traveled to Tehran on December 8 to attend a meeting on bilateral economic cooperation.[78] Arnous will meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during his three-day visit to Iran.

US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer stated that the IRGC is involved in planning and executing the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on Israel and ships in the Red Sea. The New York Times reported that Iran operates an intelligence gathering ship in the Red Sea, which helps the Houthis identify Israeli-owned vessels to attack.[81] Unspecified IRGC-affiliated Iranian sources stated that Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance plans to increase attacks on US and Israeli facilities in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on American-owned vessels operating in the Red Sea.[82] The US Treasury sanctioned an IRGC-QF financier Sa’id al Jamal on December 7 for facilitating tens of millions of dollars in Iranian financial support for the Houthi movement.[83] US officials linked this continued Iranian financial support to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and international trade.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-8-2023

Media: first phase of Israel's war against Hamas still two months away

Israeli forces need about two more months in the Gaza Strip to complete the "first phase" of the war against Hamas, a defense official said. The army foresees another three to four weeks to complete its current offensive in the southern Hamas stronghold of Khan Younis and another three to four weeks of intensive fighting.
The top official told US media that the United States, Israel's closest ally, is not setting a deadline for ending Israeli military operations in Gaza. But Washington has indicated that time is running out, Israeli media also report about the high-ranking official's assessment. The US government would like Israel to end intensive operations by the end of December. Jerusalem believes the armed forces will be needed at least until the end of January.
Israel has been trying to destroy Hamas for just over two months, after the terrorist group carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7.

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 10, 2023
Dec 10, 2023 - ISW Press










Iran Update, December 10, 2023




Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Andie Parry, Riley Bailey, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces on the Israeli forward line of advance in Khan Younis.
2. Palestinian militias attacked Israeli military vehicles in Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced east of the city.
3. Israeli forces killed the Hamas Shujaiya Battalion commander during clearing operations in the neighborhood.
4. Israel moved elements of its Artillery Corps into the Gaza Strip for the first time since the war began.
5. The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began.
6. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine called for greater coordination among Palestinian militias against Israel.
7. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted two indirect fire attacks into Israel.
8. Al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Obeida threatened that Hamas would conduct additional terror attacks against Israeli civilians.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across West Bank.
10. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a one-way drone attack that injured Israeli soldiers in northern Israel. LH claimed seven other attacks on Israeli military positions in northern Israel.
11. Asaib Ahl al Haq Secretary General Qais al Khazali reiterated his commitment to expelling US forces from Iraq in a social media statement.
12. Unspecified militants conducted two one-way drone attacks on US forces in eastern Syria, according to a US journalist.
13. The French FREMM Multi-Mission Frigate Languedoc intercepted two incoming Houthi drones off the Yemeni coast while patrolling the Red Sea.
14. Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran.

Gaza Strip
[/b]
[b]Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces on the Israeli forward line of advance in Khan Younis on December 10. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued targeting Palestinian militia sites in Khan Younis, Jabalia, Shujaiya, and Beit Hanoun. Israeli forces attacked underground tunnels in Khan Younis and conducted airstrikes to support ground maneuvers.[1] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that its fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis.[2] The militia claimed to kill 13 Israeli soldiers in the EFP attack and two more soldiers with small arms afterward the initial explosion. EFPs are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, such as main battle tanks.[3] This attack is consistent with the shift of Hamas and other Palestinian militias using increasingly sophisticated tactics since the humanitarian pause expired on December 1.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed several other attacks on Israeli soldiers and armored vehicles using anti-personnel munitions, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), anti-tank rockets, and mortars. The militia claimed that it targeted an Israeli field command post with anti-personnel shells in one of the attacks.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—conducted a complex attack on Israeli forces in a building northeast of Khan Younis using anti-personnel munitions and small arms. The militia also claimed three mortar attacks on Israeli soldiers advancing on east of Khan Younis.[5] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli soldiers and vehicles east of al Bureij in the central Gaza Strip and Khan Younis.[6] A local resident captured footage of Israeli tanks operating on the Osama Elnajjar Road in Khan Younis on December 10.

Palestinian militias attacked Israeli military vehicles in Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced east of the city on December 10. Most of the attacks claimed by Palestinian militias across the Gaza Strip occurred around Jabalia. Fighting between Israeli forces and militia fighters concentrated in eastern Jabalia city near Jabalia refugee camp and in western Jabalia city adjacent to the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood. The al Qassem Brigades claimed several attacks on Israeli Merkava tanks and armored bulldozers using the al Yassin anti-tank munition west of Jabalia refugee camp.[8] The militia claimed attacks using anti-personnel munitions, grenades, and small arms against Israeli forces in the same area.[9] The militia also claimed that its fighters conducted two house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) attacks on Israeli forces west of Jabalia.[10] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades claimed to fire RPGs, including tandem-charged RPGs, at Israeli military vehicles and soldiers as they advanced on al Fallujah Road.[11] A Palestinian journalist in Jabalia refugee camp reported that Israeli tanks advanced toward a UN Relief and Works Agency clinic.[12] Several other local journalists commented on Israeli forces operating around the camp.

Israeli forces killed the Hamas Shujaiya Battalion commander during clearing operations in the neighborhood. The Shujaiya Battalion is a combat effective battalion under active and intense IDF pressure as Israeli forces advance into Shujaiya neighborhood.[14] Israeli forces killed the former commander of the battalion on December 2.[15] The IDF announced on December 10 that it killed the new battalion commander, Amad Abdullah Ali Qariqa.[16] Qariqa had served as the deputy commander of the battalion since 2019 and trained anti-tank operatives in Hamas’ Gaza City Brigade.[17] The IDF said on December 2 that it has “significantly damaged” the battalion’s capabilities.[18]

The IDF provided details on three units’ operations in Shujaiya neighborhood on December 10. The 282nd Fire Brigade attacked over 20 targets, including weapons storage facilities, booby-trapped houses, and other Hamas-affiliated military infrastructure.[19] The Golani Brigade has uncovered 15 tunnel shafts, located ammunition, and killed Palestinian fighters since the start of fighting in the neighborhood.[20] The 188th Brigade Combat Team raided a Hamas military headquarters and found various weapons.[21]

The al Quds Brigades claimed on December 10 that one it its "martyrdom” fighters blew up a house of 13 Israeli soldiers, who were searching for a tunnel entrance in Shujaiya.[22] The attack is one of few Palestinian militia claims of ”martyrdom” operations since the Israel-Hamas war began.[23] An Israeli Army Radio journalist on the ground noted that Israeli forces had encountered a compound of booby-trapped houses while clearing Shujaiya and after Palestinian militia fighters attempted to lure the forces into a trap.[24] The al Quds Brigades separately claimed to destroy an Israeli tank using an EFP in Shujaiya.[25] The National Resistance Brigades claimed on December 10 that two of its fighters, including a commander, died during clashes in Shujaiya.

Israel moved elements of its Artillery Corps into the Gaza Strip for the first time since the war began. The Artillery Corps has been using fire to support ground maneuver and for shaping operations in the Gaza Strip since the war began.

The al Qassem Brigades military spokesperson, Abu Obeida, boasted about Hamas’ alleged battlefield success in the Gaza Strip in a speech on December 10. Abu Obeida claimed that the al Qassem Brigades have destroyed Israeli vehicles in several neighborhoods around the northern Gaza Strip and Khan Younis.[28] Obeida referenced a failed Israeli operation to rescue a hostage on December 8 to say that neither Israel nor the United States is capable of freeing Hamas-held Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began.[30] The outlet stated that the IDF has killed 800 militia fighters since the resumption of fighting after the humanitarian pause expired on December 1.[31] The number of wounded of Hamas fighters is twice as high as the number of fatalities, between 12,000 to 14,000, since the beginning of the war began, according to the outlet.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) called for greater coordination among Palestinian militias against Israel. The PFLP called for the formation of a unified Palestinian emergency command to confront Israeli military operations.[32] Some Palestinian militias have claimed combined operations since the war began, although such claims are infrequent.[33] CTP-ISW previously reported that the IDF faces a loose coalition of Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip—not just Hamas.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted two indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 10. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades separately fired rockets at an Israeli military site adjacent to the Gaza Strip.[35] An unspecified senior military source told Israeli Army Radio that Hamas has hundreds of medium- and long-range rockets left in its arsenal and noted that 2024 will be a continuous year of fighting.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Obeida threatened on December 10 that Hamas would conduct additional terror attacks against Israeli civilians. Obeida referenced a shooting attack conducted by two Hamas gunmen on a bus stop in Jerusalem on November 30, saying “what is coming is worse and greater.”[37] That shooting attack killed three Israeli civilians hours before the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip expired.[38] The spokesperson also acknowledged that Hamas has a military presence in the West Bank and mockingly asked if Israel is “able to eliminate [Hamas] in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.”

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across West Bank on December 10. Palestinian fighters used small arms against Israeli forces in three towns around Nablus.[40] The Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that it shot at an Israeli military checkpoint in one of the Nablus clashes.[41] Palestinian fighters also engaged Israeli forces in Tubas and Hebron.[42] CTP-ISW did not record any IED attacks on Israeli forces in the West Bank on December 10. Israeli forces arrested 21 Palestinians and confiscated small arms, weapons components, and explosives in West Bank raids on December 10.

Hamas and several other Palestinian groups called for a global strike, especially in the West Bank, on December 11.Hamas’ West Bank Telegram channel distributed flyers for the strike.[44] Hamas called on West Bank residents to fight Israeli forces and demonstrate against Israel on December 11.[45] The National and Islamic Forces—a coalition the major Palestinian political factions— announced that its parties would participate in the global strike as a show of unity.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted a one-way drone attack that injured Israeli soldiers in northern Israel on December 10. LH claimed that it launched several one-way attack drones at an Israeli command headquarters at the Yara barracks in northern Israel.[47] The IDF said that the attack moderately injured two soldiers and lightly injured others.[48] Israeli air defenses intercepted two of the several drones that entered Israel from Lebanon.[49] LH has only claimed seven drone attacks on Israeli positions along the Lebanese border since the Israel-Hamas war began, although the IDF frequently intercepts ”suspicious” aerial targets originating from Lebanon.[50] LH last claimed a drone attack on Israeli forces on November 20

LH claimed seven other attacks on Israeli military positions in northern Israel on December 10.[52] LH fired Burkan rockets at three Israeli military sites.[53] The al Qassem Brigades' Lebanon branch separately launched rockets at northwestern Israeli towns on December 10.[54] The al Qassem Brigades last claimed an attack from Lebanon on November 12.

Top Israeli security and military officials discussed publicly on December 10 the threat that LH poses to Israel. Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hangebi told Israeli media that Israel can no longer accept the presence of LH’s elite Radwan forces along its northern border and that the situation in the north must change.[56] Hangebi added that Israel will pursue a diplomatic solution but otherwise would “have to act.” IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that Israel emphasized similar sentiments about the need to address the LH threat, while visiting Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.[57] Halevi said that Israel can deter LH but can also achieve security through war. Halevi specified that war is not the preferred option. These statements follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning on December 7 that “if Hezbollah makes a mistake, the IDF will turn Beirut and South Lebanon into Gaza and Khan Younis.”

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) Secretary General Qais al Khazali reiterated his commitment to expelling US forces from Iraq in a social media statement on December 10.[59] Khazali’s statement follows recent indications of a division between AAH and other Iranian-backed Iraqi militant groups over attacks on US forces. Kataib Hezbollah (KH) has implicitly criticized the lack of AAH attacks on US positions since the Israel-Hamas war began.[60] AAH members also notably did not attend the December 5 funeral ceremony for five Iraqi militants killed during recent US self-defense strikes, though many other Iranian-backed Iraqi groups were present.[61] Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to try to expel US forces from Iraq, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

Unspecified militants conducted two one-way drone attacks on US forces in eastern Syria on December 10, according to a US journalist.[63] The militants targeted the US positions at Conoco Mission Support Site and al Omar oil field. US forces intercepted three drones used in the attacks. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has not claimed responsibility nor has any other actor for the attacks at the time of writing. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq previously claimed attacks on US positions at al Omar oil field on December 4 and Conoco Mission Support Site on December 8.

The French FREMM Multi-Mission Frigate Languedoc intercepted two incoming Houthi drones off the Yemeni coast while patrolling the Red Sea on December 9.[65] The Houthi drone attack comes after the Houthi military spokesperson announced on December 9 that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea.[66] The New York Times also reported on December 8 that Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” plans to increase attacks on US and allied assets in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on American-owned vessels operating in the Red Sea.[67] The Houthis have unsuccessfully targeted US naval vessels in the Red Sea with drones on multiple occasions, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[68] US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer stated on December 7 that the IRGC is involved in planning and executing the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran on December 10. The Houthi drone attack comes after the Houthi military spokesperson announced on December 9 that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea.[66] The New York Times also reported on December 8 that Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” plans to increase attacks on US and allied assets in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on American-owned vessels operating in the Red Sea.[67] The Houthis have unsuccessfully targeted US naval vessels in the Red Sea with drones on multiple occasions, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[68] US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer stated on December 7 that the IRGC is involved in planning and executing the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran on December 10. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi boasted that the war has increased the global influence of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.”[70] Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian praised the unity of the Axis of Resistance against Israel.[71] Arnous met with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on December 9.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian called on Europe to take “effective action” to facilitate a permanent ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in a letter to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell on December 10.[73] Abdollahian also called for the observance of international law and the provision of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. Abdollahian warned of the possibility of the “deep” expansion of the conflict if Israel continues its military operations in the Gaza Strip during a phone call with Borrell on December 3.[74] Iranian officials have tried to pressure international actors to pursue a ceasefire by repeatedly suggested that the war could evolve into a regional conflict, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

Cypriot security forces arrested two Iranians on December 10 for allegedly plotting to assassinate prominent Israelis inside Cyprus.[76] Israel stated that it aided the operation to identify and arrest these individuals.[77] Cypriot and Greek authorities have previously arrested Iranian-backed individuals plotting to conduct similar attacks against Israelis in Cyprus and Greece.

The PFLP said that attacks on US bases and interests in addition to removing US and Israeli forces from the region must remain a goal of the Palestinian resistance.[79] The PFLP criticized the United States for vetoing a resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war at the UN Security Council on December 8.[80] Iranian-backed militias in the regional have attacked dozens of US positions in Iraq and Syria since the war began.

The Kremlin continues to express an increasing anti-Israel position in the Israel-Hamas war despite feigning interest in being a neutral arbitrator in the conflict. NOTE: A version of this text appears in ISW December 10 Russia Offensive Campaign Assessment.Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a telephone conversation on December 10, which reportedly lasted for 50 minutes and heavily focused on the Israel-Hamas war.[82] Putin reportedly noted that there is a “disastrous humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip” and stressed that avoiding consequences for the civilian population while countering terrorist threats is just as important as rejecting and condemning terrorism.[83] Putin’s comments are noteworthy in light of the devastation the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought to the civilian population there and Russia’s deliberate efforts to inflict suffering on Ukrainian civilians by attacking energy infrastructure going into winter. Putin reportedly reiterated the Kremlin’s initial rhetorical position on the Israel-Hamas war by claiming that Russia is ready to alleviate civilian suffering and deescalate the conflict.[84] Putin has increasingly shifted away from this more neutral rhetoric to a much more anti-Israel position in recent weeks, notably claiming that the war is leading to the ”extermination of the civilian population in Palestine.”[85] Netanyahu reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with Russian positions towards Israel that Russian officials have articulated at the United Nations (UN) and other multilateral organizations.[86] Netanyahu also reportedly criticized Russia for its ”dangerous cooperation” with Iran, notably following Putin’s meeting with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Moscow on December 7.[87] Putin likely aimed to assuage Israeli concerns about Russian support for Hamas and the deepening Russian-Iranian security partnership, but Israeli and Russian rhetoric surrounding the conversation suggests that Putin likely failed to do so.[88] The Kremlin’s increasingly non-neutral framing of the Isarel-Hamas war signals potential increasing support for Iranian interests in the region and increased willingness to antagonize Israel.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-10-2023

“Real chance” of terrorist attacks in the Netherlands; Threat level now “significant”
The terrorist threat level was increased to the second-highest point on Tuesday, with a warning of a “real chance” of an attack, the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) wrote in a report. The threat level was increased to its highest point in over four years.

The threat assessment system used by the NCTV is a scale rising from the least severe first level, to the most severe fifth level. The NCTV raised the alert from level three, dubbed “significant,” to level four, called “substantial.

The amount of known appeals for attacks issued by jihadist organizations has increased, partly due to the escalation in conflict in the Middle East and the destruction of copies of the Quran which have been set on fire in various countries. Recent attacks in neighboring countries show that these calls are also being heeded, the NCTV stated.

The threat level jumped from level two to level four in early 2013. It remained in that position until Dutch authorities lowered the assessment down to level three, where a threat is considered “conceivable.” This happened at the end of 2019. The organization wrote that “extra security measures” have recently been implemented, but the NCTV did not elaborate about them.

When will Geert Wilders take over H? Geert will save you. He doesn't fuck around. I wouldn't be surprised if his first day in office included hunting Muslims with an AK-47

LOL Wilders is an secret agent of Israel hehe. Forming a new government will be tough for him though formation talks will at least continue to February.

Wilders experienced the Arab threat to the young Jewish state from the front row. He regularly had to flee to the shelter with his fellow growers. Then Palestinian terrorists had infiltrated Israeli territory from Jordan. Occasionally Wilders saw how Israeli helicopters attacked them with magnesium bombs. Impressive for Wilders : 'We didn't even see something like that on TV in Holland. I was not naive, but the experience was intense.'

Wilders had now had a short-lived marriage. He met his current wife, a Jewish-Hungarian diplomat, in a pub in The Hague. The couple has deliberately remained childless to focus on their careers.

Interesting. I was under the impression that Wilders was gonna be the guy, but I guess it's not that simple over there. Keep us updated H

Ah yeah I keep forgetting you guys have lots of political parties. Forming a majority can happen in so many different ways I suppose

The idea is now there will be a centre right coalition with PVV (Wilders), BBB and NSC (both new parties) with the tolerating partner the VVD (party of PM Rutte), the new PM is not yet known. Wilders or somebody else. The 3 biggest issues are immigration, purchasing power and social security.

Arrests in Denmark, Holland and Germany. The German prosecutor's office: "They were linked to Hamas"
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser: "We have the Islamist scene in our sights"
6.02pm

"Potential terrorist attacks against Jewish institutions in Europe" they were foiled, according to the German prosecutor's office, in operations that were carried out today in Germany, Denmark and Holland and led to the arrest of 7 alleged members of Hamas.. The first to announce the arrests was Denmark, which initially spoke of three prisoners with links to organized crime. But a few hours later the confirmation arrived, also from the Mossad, that those arrested had links to Hamas, and that the operation involved other European countries . The main investigation seems to start from Germany, where today the prosecutor announced the arrest of four suspects, identified as the Lebanese Abdelhamid al A. and Ibrahim el R., the Egyptian Mohamed B. and the Dutch Nazih R., who was arrested by the Dutch police in Rotterdam. The four are accused of belonging to "a foreign terrorist organisation", in particular Hamas, which is considered such by the EU. According to German investigators, the four arrested took part in Hamas operations abroad and had "tightening" relations with its armed wing, the Ezzeldin al Qassam Brigades

"The arrest of four alleged members of the terrorist organization Hamas demonstrates that our security authorities are extremely be vigilant and act accordingly. We have the Islamist scene in our sights." German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser wrote this in X after the arrest of the four suspected Hamas members, three in Berlin and one in Rotterdam, who apparently planned an attack on Jewish institutions in Germany.. ", wrote Faeser again. "I would like to thank the Federal Criminal Police Office and our other security agencies involved in today's operation under the direction of the Federal Attorney General. I would like to thank the Dutch police for their close cooperation", added the German minister. "The protection of Jews is our highest priority. We adopt all legal means against those who threaten the lives of Jews and the existence of the State of Israel"

The office of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was the first to confirm that there were seven arrested in Europe who they were acting "in the name of Hamas". And he raised the alarm that the terrorist organization intends to expand its operations around the world to "attack Israeli targets" , Jews, Westerners at any price", especially after the attacks of last October 7. For this reason, the Israeli prime minister's office recalled that Hamas represents a threat to the security of all European countries and offered the help of the intelligence services. to foil future conspiracies, as would have happened with the anti-terrorism operations conducted today in Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands.

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 18, 2023
Dec 18, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, December 18, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, and Peter Mills

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip.
2. The IDF reported on December 18 that Israeli forces destroyed Hamas’ Beit Hanoun Battalion.
3. The al Qassem Brigades still has two units that are not committed to combat in the Rafah and the Central governorates that it could draw on to defend Khan Younis.
4. Palestinian militias conducted three indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
5. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times across the West Bank.
6. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
7. The Houthis claimed to have conducted two drone attacks targeting the Norwegian-owned, Cayman Islands-flagged Swan Atlantic tanker and Swiss-owned, Panama-flagged MSC Clara container ship in the Red Sea.
8. Israel conducted airstrikes targeting the IRGC headquarters at Sayyida Zainab, Damascus.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli ground forces advanced into the northern Gaza Strip on October 27.[1] Israeli clearing operations have relied on ground, air, and naval forces to destroy Hamas’ military infrastructure, namely its tunnel system and command structure.[2] Palestinian militia fighters have clashed with Israeli forces in virtually all neighborhoods of the northern Gaza Strip since October 27.[3] The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began. Operations in the northern Gaza Strip likely resulted in most of the deaths.[4] CTP-ISW defines “degrade” as a temporary effect whereby a unit’s losses seriously impede its ability to continue executing assigned missions while the unit remains able to operate.[5]

Israeli forces are engaged in intense fighting against Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion the Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza city.[6] A commander in the IDF noted that Shujaiya “was and still is an established stronghold” of Hamas. Palestinian militia fighters have attacked Israeli forces throughout clearing operations in Shujaiya using a variety of munitions, such as explosively formed penetrators and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) to resist Israeli advances.[7] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 18 that its forces had captured and destroyed a central square in Shujaiya.[8] CTP-ISW has reported that the Shujaiya Battalion is also facing active and intense IDF pressure as Israel takes out its infrastructure and command structure.[9]

Commercially available satellite imagery captured on December 18 shows flattened terrain throughout Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city, which indicates that Israeli tanks or bulldozers have been actively operating there since early December. Israel identified Jabalia and Shujaiya as targets for Israeli clearing operations.[10] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on December 11 that Hamas’ Jabalia and Shujaiya Battalions are “on the verge of being dismantled.”

The IDF reported on December 18 that Israeli forces destroyed Hamas’ Beit Hanoun Battalion. Israeli forces took control of the battalions’ command and control centers including its underground headquarters and other militant infrastructure.[13] The IDF 252nd Reserve Division completed its operations in the area and handed over responsibility to the Gaza Division.[14] An Israeli war correspondent noted that the announcement indicates the military has firm control over the sector.[15] Israeli ground forces began operating in Beit Hanoun on October 27 and have faced almost daily Palestinian militia attacks on and behind the forward line of advance, with various munitions, including explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG).[16] The IDF Chief of Staff told forces in the Gaza Strip on November 21 that it had caused very serious damage to the Beit Hanoun Battalion.

Palestinian militias in the northern Gaza Strip will likely continue to target Israeli forces on and behind the Israeli forward line of advance. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed two complex attacks on Israeli forces in Beit Lahiya.[18] Militia fighters detonated IEDs and fired a thermobaric rocket at Israeli forces in one of the attacks.[19] The militia posted a video of an attack and claimed to fire a Kornet anti-tank guided missile at an Israeli jeep operating behind the Israeli line of advance.[20] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed sniper attacks against Israeli forces in Shujaiya and mortar Israeli forces in Juhor ad Dik on December 18.[21] Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of "clear,” which is a tactical task that "requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.”

Israeli forces detained Hamas and PIJ fighters in Rimal neighborhood of Gaza City last week. The IDF reported on December 18 that its forces detained several fighters belonging to Hamas and PIJ after intense clashes in Rimal last Friday.[22] Israel said it detained a member of the al Qassem Brigades’ naval commandos, the Nukhba forces, as well as a fighter who participated in the October 7 attacks.

Palestinian fighters continued their attempts to resist Israeli forces as the IDF continued its advance in Khan Younis on December 18. The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli soldiers in central and eastern Khan Younis and took control of an IDF quadcopter surveillance drone in eastern Khan Younis.[24] The al Qassem Brigades fired mortars, RPGs, and anti-personnel shells at Israeli forces and tanks in eastern and northern Khan Younis.[25] The IDF said its Special Forces Unit 217 has been fighting in the heart of Khan Younis for two weeks, raided a tactical tunnel system, and destroyed a drone manufacturing site.[26] Israeli aircraft struck Hamas fighters and infrastructure with direction from ground forces in Khan Younis on December 17 and 18.[27] These Israeli operations degrade Hamas’ ability to resist IDF advances in the southern Gaza Strip.

The al Qassem Brigades still has two units that are not committed to combat in the Rafah and the Central governorates that it could draw on to defend Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades maintain five geographic brigades in the Gaza Strip.[28] Israeli forces have not yet expanded clearing operations to the areas of responsibility of the Central Brigade in the Central governorate or the Rafah Brigade in Rafah governorate. An Israeli defense correspondent reported on December 18 that Hamas is transferring forces from the rest of the Gaza Strip to support its Khan Younis Brigade.[29] The same correspondent noted that the IDF assesses that it will take several months to defeat the Khan Younis Brigade.

The Israeli defense minister expressed a vision for the next stage of operations in the Gaza Strip during a press conference with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on December 18 Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant said that some regions of the Gaza Strip are close to being able to transition to a “day after” the war and Israel can start working on bringing back the local population.[31] Gallant stated that this transition will be possible even while other parts of the Gaza Strip remain in active conflict.[32] Gallant also noted that Israel will not control Gaza in any civilian way.[33] Austin said that he spoke with Gallant about the military campaign's objectives, phasing, and protecting civilians.

Hamas has continued to issue hostage propaganda since Israeli forces mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in Shujaiya on December 15 and as hostage exchange negotiations resume. The al Qassem Brigades posted a video of three elderly male hostages calling on Israel to agree to a hostage/prisoner swap with no conditions and to not let them “grow old” in the Gaza Strip.[35] Hamas translated a hostage's statement as “we do not want to be casualties as a direct result of IDF airstrikes,” echoing a repeated and false information operation that Israeli airstrikes are killing the hostages.[36] PIJ claimed an Israeli airstrike killed an elderly Israeli hostage a day before the group released her through the temporary pause deal in late November.[37] Hamas Gaza leadership member Ghazi Hamad claimed that Israel is purposely killing the Hamas-held hostages in airstrikes and in the December 15 incident so that it doesn’t have to complete a hostage/prisoner swap.[38] Hamas has continued to message in recent days that it will not enter hostage negotiations until Israel stops its ground operation in the Gaza Strip.[39] CIA Director Bill Burns, Israeli Mossad head David Barnea, and the Qatari prime minister met to restart hostage negotiations on December 18, however.

Palestinian militias conducted three indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip on December 18. The al Quds Brigades fired rockets and mortars at Nahal Oz in southern Israel.[41] The militia separately claimed to fire rockets east of Rafah along the border with Israel.[42] The al Qassem Brigades fired rockets at Kissufim, where Israeli forces used a border crossing to enter the southern Gaza Strip.[43]

Israeli forces operating in Khan Younis reported on December 18 that they destroyed rocket launchers aimed at Israeli territory.[44] IDF Home Front Command lifted workplace and educational restrictions in Ashkelon in southern Israel after a situational assessment regarding the threat of rocket fire from the Gaza Strip.[45] The IDF evacuated and designated the periphery of the Gaza Strip as a military zone on October 11.[46] Israeli clearing operations and lifted restrictions in southern Israel are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Israeli forces are likely degrading Hamas’ capacity to conduct indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times across the West Bank on December 18.[48] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades engaged Israeli forces in small arms clashes and detonated IEDs targeting these forces in Azzun, west of Nablus.[49] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades separately fired on an Israeli civilian vehicle near Ramallah.[50] Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces and detonated IEDs targeting these forces in the al Fara refugee camp near Tubas.[51] Hamas’ West Bank branch said that Israeli forces killed four fighters during the clashes.[52]

The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades said that Israeli forces killed five fighters during clashes in the Noor Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm on December 17.[53] The Noor Shams Camp branch of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades said that Israeli ”crimes will not go unnoticed” and called on fighters across the West Bank to unite against Israeli forces.[54] The Qalqilya branch of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades called for further attacks on Israeli forces in revenge for the killing of Palestinian fighters in Tulkarm and Jenin.[55] A Palestinian journalist said that members of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, Hamas, and the al Quds Brigades participated in a memorial service for fighters killed in Tulkarm.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 18. LH claimed an attack on an IDF Iron Dome air defense system for the first time since the Hamas-Israel war began on October 7.[57] The IDF has not acknowledged the attack on the Iron Dome system. LH attacked Israeli forces near Hanita and fired rockets targeting Kiryat Shmona in retaliation for an IDF airstrike in Lebanon near the funeral of an LH fighter.[58] Unspecified fighters carried out four rocket attacks, one anti-tank guided missile attack, and launched one drone into northern Israel on December 18.[59] The IDF reported that it responded to LH attacks with artillery fire and airstrikes targeting LH rocket launchers and other unspecified military infrastructure in Lebanon on December 18.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Iraq held provincial council elections on December 18 for the first time since 2013.[61] Iraqi provincial councils are authorized to appoint and remove governors, approve provincial director-general positions, and approve provincial security plans.[62] The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced midday on December 18 that only 17 percent of registered voters had cast votes.[63] Iraqi media claimed after the closing of the polls that voter participation had reached 38 percent and that voter participation was highest in the northern province of Kirkuk.[64] IHEC announced that it will release the results of the election on December 19.[65]

Iraqi media reported several instances of voter intimidation and violence at voting centers on December 18. Unidentified individuals threw IEDs at two voting stations in Kufah, Najaf Province.[66] Iraqi Joint Operations Deputy Commander Lieutenant General Qais al Muhammadawi separately announced that unspecified individuals hurled a stun grenade toward a voting center in Najaf.[67] Supporters of an unspecified political alliance stormed a voting center in Baghdad and demanded that voters vote for a member of their alliance.[68] Iraqi officials emphasized that the elections passed smoothly and without any major security incidents.

The Houthis claimed to have conducted two drone attacks targeting the Norwegian-owned, Cayman Islands-flagged Swan Atlantic tanker and Swiss-owned, Panama-flagged MSC Clara container ship in the Red Sea on December 18. The Houthi Navy initially deployed unspecified “craft” with armed personnel to direct the ships to alter course before attacking them.[70] The Houthi military spokesperson claimed that the group conducted drone attacks on the two ships.[71] US officials stated, on the other hand, that multiple unspecified “projectiles” had been launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen.[72] It is unclear what munitions the Houthis used to conduct the attacks at the time of writing. The USS Carney responded to the Atlantic’s distress call.[73] Western media reported that the Atlantic was damaged in the attack.[74] The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion in the water near a vessel south of the port of Mokha in Yemen.[75] The Houthis have expanded their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel after having threatened to do so on December 9 and 12.

The Houthi anti-shipping attack campaign continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting Red Sea maritime traffic headed to Israel. The British petroleum company BP, Taiwanese shipping company Evergreen Line, and Belgian oil tanker company Euronav announced on December 18 that they will suspend shipping operations in the Red Sea.[77] Norwegian energy group Equinor similarly stated that it had rerouted an unspecified number of ships away from the Red Sea.[78] The above companies cited the “deteriorating security situation” in the area and concern for the “safety of ships and crew.” The Hong Kong-based shipping company Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) similarly announced on December 17 that it would immediately stop shipping goods to and from Israel.[79] Global shipping giants, such as Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, previously announced that they would pause operations around the Red Sea but did not specify how it would affect their services to Israel.

Israel conducted airstrikes targeting the IRGC headquarters at Sayyida Zainab, Damascus on December 17. The Syrian Defense Ministry stated that Israel conducted airstrikes near Damascus which injured two Syrian Arab Army soldiers.[82] Iranian-backed militia groups and the IRGC maintain their main headquarters in Sayyida Zainab and use it to facilitate Iranian lines of effort elsewhere in Syria.[83] Syrian opposition news outlet Eye of Euphrates reported on October 30 that the senior-most IRGC commander in Syria has coordinated all attacks on US forces in Syria through a joint operations room based in Sayyida Zainab.[84] Israel has regularly conducted airstrikes on the headquarters and recently killed general officers in IRGC Quds Force Unit 340, which is responsible for providing technical military support and training to members of the Axis of Resistance.[85] There is no reason to believe that Israel has targeted the same unit or capabilities as it is not clear what area of the Sayyida Zainab headquarters was targeted and the headquarters is a sprawling facility.

The Jordanian armed forces clashed with Iran-backed militias attempting to smuggle weapons and drugs through the Jordan-Syria border on December 18.[86] Jordanian state media stated that this was the largest armed cross-border weapons and drug smuggling operation in recent years.[87] Several Jordanian army personnel and smugglers were injured or killed during the clash. The Jordanian army similarly announced that it had neutralized an unspecified number of drug smugglers attempting to smuggle Captagon into the country on December 12.[88] The Syrian regime and Iran-backed militias mass produce the drug in Syria and smuggle it through Jordan to the Gulf Arab states, generating billions of dollars of revenue for the malign actors.[89] Jordanian and Western officials have stated that Iran and LH have been behind the surge in drug and weapons smuggling from southern Syria into Jordan.[90] The Jordanian armed forces conducted air strikes on Iran-linked drug factories in southern Syria in May 2023.[91]

Jordanian officials have been concerned about Iranian threats to their security beyond drug and weapons smuggling.[92] The Jordanian Armed Forces shot down three drones that traveled into their airspace from Syria in August 2023, which Jordanian officials linked to Iran-backed militias in Syria.[93] Jordan also borders Iraq and the West Bank whose local governments and security institutions are infiltrated by Iran-backed militias that can then infiltrate Jordan from all directions. Some Western analysts have noted that Jordan is home to millions of displaced refugees from Iraq, Syria, and the West Bank which Iran can recruit for its militant groups.[94] Many of the Palestinian civil society organizations in Jordan are reportedly linked to Iran-sponsored groups.

An Israel-affiliated hacktivist group “Predatory Sparrow” conducted a large-scale cyberattack against gas pumps throughout Iran on December 18.[96] The cyberattack disabled between 60-70% of the gas stations around the country.[97] President Ebrahim Raisi confirmed the fuel stations were experiencing a disruption and ordered the Ministry of Oil to investigate this.[98] Iranian media outlets and Oil Minister Javad Owji stated that the oil disruption was a result of a cyberattack by Israel and the United States.[99] Iran also recently blamed Israel for the December 15 Jaish al Adl attack in Sistan and Baluchistan province.[100]

The "Predatory Sparrow” group claimed responsibility on X for the attack and warned this was only a small part of their capabilities.[101] They further stated that they were acting in response to Iranian provocations in the region and warned Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directly that ”playing with fire has a price.” According to Israel Army Radio correspondent Doron Kadosh, Israel claimed responsibility for the attack.[102] Israel warned Iranian emergency services before the attack in a form of cyber “roof-knocking”.[103] The “Predatory Sparrow“ group has targeted IRGC-affiliated industries in the past and attributed responsibility to Israel.

Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the recent attack on an LEC Headquarters in Rask, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, during a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart Jalil Abbas Jilani on December 18.[105] The two foreign ministers discussed the Israel-Hamas war. Jilani emphasized Pakistan’s commitment to cooperating with Iran to counter terrorism.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-18-2023

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 20, 2023
Dec 20, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, December 20, 2023

Brian Carter, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, Kathryn Tyson, Andie Parry, and Alexandra Braverman

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces are transitioning from clearing operations to holding operations in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi threatened to target US warships in the Red Sea.
3. Israel and Hamas continued negotiations for a new humanitarian pause in fighting in exchange for Israeli hostages being held in the Gaza Strip.
4. PIJ Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah and a PIJ delegation will travel to Cairo in the coming days to discuss ceasefire negotiations with Egyptian officials.
5. Iranian military leaders view current Hamas operations in the Gaza Strip as the prelude to a long-term war to destroy Israel.
6. Iraqi political parties and coalitions aligned with the Shia Coordination Framework—a loosely aligned coalition of pro-Iranian political parties—have won the most seats in the provincial council elections.
7. Iraqi media claimed on December 20 that unspecified militants attacked US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq.

Israeli forces are transitioning from clearing operations to holding operations in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip, such as Beit Hanoun and the al Shati camp, are beginning to execute tasks analogous to the US military definition of a holding operation. A holding operation “involves disrupting [enemy] activities in an area and providing a good security environment for the population” and “focuses on securing the population.”[1] The Israeli Defense Minister said on December 18 that the IDF is preparing to transition to a “day after” the war and that Israel will begin bringing back the local population in some areas of the strip.[2] The IDF redeployed some of the units responsible for clearing Beit Hanoun and al Shati camp and backfilled them with new units to hold the areas.[3] The backfilling units are continuing lower intensity operations, such as raids against infrastructure and clashing with small cells of Palestinian fighters.[4] The hold phase is defined by a decreased level of violence, but it still requires holding forces to engage and eliminate enemy forces and infrastructure to provide security.

Doctrinally sound holding operations would enable the Israel Defense Forces to protect local Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip and Israeli citizens in southern Israel. Holding operations consist of both offensive and defensive tasks that secure the population and prevent enemy forces from securing terrain.[6] US military doctrine defines the tactical task ”secure“ as efforts to prevent a unit, facility, geographic location, or population from being destroyed or damaged.[7] Holding forces execute defensive tasks, such as capturing enemy weapons caches and securing terrain.[8] They also conduct offensive operations, including raids against enemy leaders and disruption operations targeting enemy support structures among the population.[9] Holding operations allow the IDF to protect local populations by securing areas in the Gaza Strip against Hamas re-infiltration while protecting Israeli citizens in southern Israel by continuing to dismantle Hamas military infrastructure.

The holding phase is a lengthy transitional period that seeks to create a minimally acceptable security environment to provide space for the creation of a new political order. This phase can take many months. In US doctrine and practice, the holding force will increasingly execute stability tasks and operations—such as restoring essential services and supporting dislocated civilians—as the hold phase continues.[10] Stability tasks and operations during the holding phase help set conditions for the new political order and prevent a collapse of social order.

Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi threatened to target US warships in the Red Sea in a speech on December 20.[11] The United States announced on December 18 that it established a 10-nation combined maritime operation to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.[12] Abdulmalik said that the Houthis would attack “US battleships, interests, and navigation” if the United States “escalates further” and targets Yemen or the Houthis.[13] The US Navy no longer operates battleships. Abdulmalik also accused the United States of “militarizing the Red Sea and asked that Arab countries leave the Houthis to respond to a “direct war” with the United States and Israel.[14] Abdulmalik claimed falsely that the Houthis would not target European vessels in the Red Sea as long as the vessels do not go to Israel.[15] The Houthis have repeatedly targeted European vessels that were en route to destinations other than Israel, such as Italy.[16]

The Houthi Supreme Political Council similarly criticized the US-led coalition as a “hostile step aimed at protecting Israel.”[17] The council said that it will hold the United States responsible for anything that comes from the “militarization” of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The Houthi movement is conducting an information operation that aims to frame any US response to Houthi acts of piracy and terrorism targeting international shipping as an escalation. The Houthi movement is claiming to support the Palestinian cause while criticizing the US-led coalition. The Houthis and Iran are attempting to demonstrate the threat that the Axis of Resistance poses to global shipping and major maritime routes in the Middle East, as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[18] This effort is not specific to the Israel-Hamas war. Tehran has had a long-standing goal to develop the military capabilities and proxies that it requires to disrupt traffic around both the Bab al Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.[19] In this context, the United States is responding to multiple Houthi acts of piracy and terrorism which aim to disrupt all international trade in the Red Sea, not just to Israel. Several of the vessels that the Houthis have attacked were bound for destinations other than Israel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian fighters fired at Israeli forces in Beit Hanoun with small arms on December 20. The IDF reported that one Palestinian fighter attempted to conduct a drive-by shooting targeting Israeli reservists in Beit Hanoun on December 20.[20] Palestinian media also reported armed clashes between Palestinian fighters and the IDF in Beit Hanoun.[21] These attacks are consistent with the doctrinal definition of a holding operation. Enemy fighters frequently attack holding forces during holding operations as the holding force conducts defensive and offensive operations to degrade and destroy the enemy force’s military infrastructure.

The IDF continued clearing operations in Jabalia on December 20. The IDF’s 551st Brigade Combat Team and Nahal Brigade captured Hamas rockets and conducted airstrikes to eliminate Palestinian militia anti-tank team positions.[23] Palestinian fighters also clashed with advancing Israeli forces near al Sikka Road and the Civil Administration Site in Jabalia on December 20, according to Palestinian media.[24]

Palestinian militia fighters continued their efforts to defend against Israeli advances in Jabalia and Shujaiya. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)--claimed that its fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an IDF bulldozer and Israeli infantry east of Shujaiya.[25] The Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—attacked IDF units in Tal al Zaatar, near Jabalia refugee camp, on December 20.[26] The group fired rocket-propelled grenades targeting Israeli forces in Shujaiya.[27] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—used rocket-propelled grenades to attack Israeli armor in eastern Jabalia on December 20.[28]

Palestinian militia fighters conducted attacks behind the forward line of Israeli advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades attacked an eight-vehicle Israeli convoy in Sabra and Tal al Hawa on December 20.[29] CTP-ISW assesses that the al Qassem Brigades’ Sabra-Tal al Islam (Tal al Hawa) Battalion is degraded, but not combat ineffective.[30] Al Qassem Brigades fighters also detonated anti-personnel improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun neighborhood, southern Gaza City.

Palestinian fighters continued using sophisticated tactics to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades detonated IEDs targeting Israeli troops in two separate booby-trapped tunnels northeast and east of Khan Younis on December 20.[32] The group also attacked Israeli armor north and east of Khan Younis using rocket-propelled grenades.[33]

Israeli forces in Khan Younis raided Palestinian militia infrastructure on December 20. The 7th Brigade Combat Team discovered “underground infrastructure” including unspecified “water and electrical systems” in the homes of senior Hamas leaders in central Khan Younis.[34] The IDF’s 55th Brigade Combat Team also captured a militia weapons cache in Khan Younis.

Israel and Hamas continued negotiations for a new humanitarian pause in fighting in exchange for Israeli hostages being held in the Gaza Strip. Egyptian officials claimed that Israeli negotiators proposed a one-week pause in fighting to allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip in exchange for 40 women, children, and elderly men held hostage.[36] Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have rejected any hostage release until a ceasefire is implemented and Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip.[37] PIJ is expected to participate in hostage negotiations with Hamas for the first time since the Israel-Hamas began.[38] PIJ observed the previous humanitarian pause in fighting but was not a party to negotiations.[39] An unidentified Israeli official stated that negotiations are still in the early stages.[40] Mossad Director David Barnea traveled to Doha, Qatar on December 18 to begin negotiations.

PIJ Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah and a PIJ delegation will travel to Cairo in the coming days to discuss ceasefire negotiations with Egyptian officials.[42] Nakhalah claimed that his delegation’s primary goal is to establish a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, remove Israeli forces from the territory, and begin reconstruction in the strip.[43] PIJ Deputy Secretary General Muhammad al Hindi said that PIJ will not negotiate any hostage release until these demands have been met.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in nine locations in the West Bank on December 20. Palestinian fighters detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in four towns in the northern and central West Bank.[45] Palestinian fighters also fired small arms at Israeli forces in seven towns.[46] The Jenin Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade claimed that its fighters fired small arms and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in Yamoun.[47] The Qalqilya Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade fired small arms targeting an Israeli checkpoint near Qalqilya on December 19.[48] Israeli forces arrested 17 Palestinians, 11 of whom were affiliated with Hamas, during overnight raids in the West Bank on December 20.[49] The IDF confiscated small arms, ammunition, military equipment, and vehicles during the operations.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 20.[51] LH claimed that its fighters fired surface-to-air missiles targeting IDF helicopters operating over Shomira, Even Menachem, and Shtula.[52] LH also claimed two rocket strikes on IDF positions near Khirbet Maar and Shtula.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Doha on December 19. Haniyeh praised Iran and other regional actors for their support of the Palestinian people.[55] Haniyeh also denied the IDF’s claim that it controls part of the North Gaza Governorate.[56] Abdollahian said in a press conference after the meeting that Haniyeh claimed that Hamas has only used 14 percent of its defense capabilities and manpower.[57] This is Abdollahian’s fourth trip to Doha since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.[58]

Abdollahian also met with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Doha.[59] The two discussed the Israel-Hamas war and the likelihood of an imminent permanent ceasefire. Abdollahian questioned an unconfirmed US claim that an agreement on the Israel-Hamas war could be reached before the end of the year.[60] Abdollahian also said that indirect and direct diplomatic negotiations show that the region is gradually moving towards a ceasefire within an unspecified time frame.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi urged the Pakistani government to improve border security during a phone call with Pakistani President Arif Rahman Alavi. Raisi’s statement comes after Balochi Salafi-jihadi fighters attacked a police station on December 15 in the Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran.[62] Raisi also called for increased bilateral cooperation between Iran and Pakistan particularly in the energy sector. Raisi reiterated the importance of coordinated action by Islamic countries to end the Israel-Hamas war.

Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war during a phone call with his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad on December 19. The two spoke about the need for an immediate ceasefire and the provision of aid for the Palestinian people.

Iranian military leaders view current Hamas operations in the Gaza Strip as the prelude to a long-term war to destroy Israel. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami stated the Palestinian resistance is practicing and gaining the necessary experience in “the formula for destroying Israel” during a meeting of provincial IRGC commanders in Khuzestan Province.[64] Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani said on November 18 that Israel’s military and intelligence failures since October 7 provide lessons for future action against it.[65] IRGC commanders previously framed Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel. Former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari framed the attack as a “warmup” to prepare and train for future operations against Israel in an interview on October 15.[66] Salami described Hamas’ operation as the “first stage” of Israel’s “hasty collapse” on the same day.[67] Salami previously outlined what he considered to be the formula for destroying Israel during an interview with the Supreme Leader’s website in August 2022. Salami argued that Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian militias needed to conduct more ground operations and urban combat inside Israel that would destabilize and generate internal displacement leading to Israel’s collapse.

US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with senior Iraqi federal government and Kurdistan Regional Government officials in Baghdad and Erbil, Iraq, on December 19 and 20.[69] Nuland congratulated Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on the “successful” provincial council elections.[70] Sudani emphasized his government’s commitment to protecting diplomatic missions, embassies, and international coalition advisors in Iraq. Nuland separately discussed the provincial council elections with National Wisdom Movement head Ammar al Hakim.[71] The National Wisdom Movement won the third most seats in the elections.[72]

Nuland discussed protecting diplomatic missions and US and coalition forces in Iraq during a meeting with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani.[73] Nuland and Barzani also discussed the “political and security” situation in Iraq as well as relations between Erbil and Baghdad. Nuland also met with KRG Prime Minister Masoud Barzani. Nuland and Barzani discussed the risk of the reemergence of ISIS and emphasized the need for the KRG, Iraqi central government, and US-led international coalition to cooperate to combat terrorism.

Iraqi media claimed on December 20 that unspecified militants attacked US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq.[75] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has not claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-20-2023

With war raging in Gaza, Christmas is effectively canceled in Bethlehem

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...lehem-christmas-gaza-war-intl/index.html

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 26, 2023
Dec 26, 2023 - ISW Press










Iran Update, December 26, 2023

Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Hamas and other Palestinian militias are exploiting the Israeli hostages they are holding to ensure that Hamas and its partners are involved in any negotiations about the future of the Gaza Strip. Hamas having a role in the future of the strip is incompatible with Israel’s stated war objectives of destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing “Palestinian society.”
2. Hamas fighters attacked Israeli forces conducting holding operations in Beit Hanoun. CTP-ISW assessed on December 20 that the IDF transitioned to a hold phase in Beit Hanoun.
3. Hamas and its militia allies continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Jabalia. The IDF reported that one of Hamas’ battalions used Indonesian Hospital in Jabalia as a headquarters.
4. The IDF continued clearing operations in Daraj wal Tuffah, Gaza City. Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj wal Tuffah.
5. Palestinian militias continued to try to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis. Palestinian militias used mortars, small arms fire, and anti-tank rockets to defend against the Israeli advances.
6. A Hamas security official shot and killed a fifteen-year-old Palestinian boy at an aid distribution site in Rafah, demonstrating the continued breakdown of governance and social order across the Gaza Strip.
7. Palestinian militias conducted at least two mortar attacks from the Gaza Strip targeting southern Israel on December 25 and five rocket attacks on December 26.
8. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters across the West Bank in nine locations on December 25 and in four locations on December 26.
9. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted from southern Lebanon into northern Israel 10 attacks on December 25 and nine attacks on December 26.
10. Israeli media reported that LH began withdrawing many of its forces, including Radwan special operations forces, from the Israel-Lebanon border.
11. The United States conducted airstrikes targeting three Kataib Hezbollah drone facilities in Hillah, Babil Province, Iraq, in response to a KH drone attack that wounded three US military personnel at Erbil International Airport earlier that day.
12. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria.
13. Iranian Supreme National Defense University President IRGC Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam discussed security and counterterrorism cooperation with Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh in Baghdad.
14. Israel was likely responsible for an airstrike on the IRGC military headquarters near Sayyidah Zainab, Syria, killing senior IRGC officer Brigadier General Razi Mousavi. The IRGC and senior Iranian officials vowed that Iran would retaliate against Israel for Mousavi’s death.
15. The Houthis attacked two vessels in the Red Sea as part of the ongoing anti-shipping attack campaign that they and Iran have conducted around the Bab al Mandeb in recent weeks. The IDF intercepted at least one Houthi drone targeting southern Israel.

Hamas and other Palestinian militias are exploiting the Israeli hostages they are holding to ensure that Hamas and its partners are involved in any negotiations about the future of the Gaza Strip. Beginning international negotiations on what the Gaza Strip will look like after the war with discussions on hostage releases has created the opportunity for Hamas and its allies to insert themselves into the discussion on the future of the strip. Hamas and its allies seek to use the hostages as leverage to get Israel to leave the Gaza Strip and end the war on terms favorable to Hamas. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad rejected an Egyptian three-phase peace proposal on December 25 that sought to create a long-term ceasefire likely because it did not guarantee an immediate Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.[1] The first phase of the agreement would have Hamas release 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for Israeli releasing 140 Palestinian prisoners.[2] This phase also included the withdrawal of the IDF only from residential areas in the Gaza Strip.[3] Releasing hostages prior to a complete Israeli withdrawal deprives Hamas and its allies of some of their negotiating leverage. The second and third phases of the agreement would have Hamas release female and then male soldiers held hostage in return for Israel releasing additional Palestinian prisoners.[4] The third phase would include the formation of a transitional government in the Gaza Strip that would include “various Palestinian factions, including Hamas.”[5] Hamas officials have said repeatedly in recent days that they would refuse to release any hostages prior to a complete ceasefire that forces Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, leaving Hamas in power.[6] Hamas and its allies are thus exploiting the hostages to ensure it will remain in power after the end of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas' effort to secure its role in the future of the Gaza Strip is incompatible with Israel’s stated war objectives of destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing “Palestinian society.”[7] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated these aims in an op-ed on December 26.[8] Any agreement that maintains Hamas’ military and political role in the Gaza Strip would be tantamount to Israel’s defeat in this war because it would preserve Hamas as a governing body and military force and provide Hamas safe haven to reconstitute itself and threaten Israel again in the future. Hamas remains resilient and able to reconstitute its military capabilities, despite its military losses in the war thus far.[9] Israel’s stated war goals are meant to prevent Hamas’ reconstitution by destroying Hamas as a governing body and military force. Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have highlighted that Israel will need to fight a "prolonged” war to achieve these objectives.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Hamas fighters attacked Israeli forces conducting holding operations in Beit Hanoun on December 26. Hamas fighters detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting Israeli forces west of Beit Hanoun on December 26.[11] The IDF said on December 18 that it destroyed Hamas’ Beit Hanoun Battalion.[12] CTP-ISW assessed on December 20 that the IDF transitioned to a hold phase in Beit Hanoun.[13] Violence decreases during a hold phase but is not absent, as the holding force seeks the complete destruction of the enemy force.

Hamas and its militia allies continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Jabalia on December 25 and 26. Palestinian militias ambushed Israeli forces using IEDs, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms.[15] Hamas said that it targeted two separate Israeli combat outposts with thermobaric rockets on December 25.[16] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) reported that that it used tandem charge rockets to attack advancing Israeli armor in Jabalia on December 26.[17] Hamas and PIJ also conducted a combined complex ambush using standard and thermobaric rockets against Israeli forces sheltering in a home in Jabalia city.[18] The IDF 261st Brigade engaged a Hamas cell that attempted to detonate an IED targeting an IDF tank in Jabalia on December 26.[19] Israeli air and artillery support targeted and killed the enemy Hamas cell.

The IDF reported on December 26 that one of Hamas’ battalions used Indonesian Hospital in Jabalia as a headquarters. The IDF said that its 551st Brigade searched the grounds of the Indonesian Hospital and discovered a Toyota Corolla belonging to the family of one of the Israeli hostages.[21] The IDF reported that it found “bloodstains” and “RPG remains” in the vehicle, adding that the presence of the vehicle at the hospital connects the hospital to Hamas’ October 7 attack.[22] The IDF said that the hospital was a “strategic center of the underground infrastructure” for one of the Hamas battalions operating in Jabalia.[23] The IDF was likely referring to the Khalifa (Jabalia Camp) Battalion, given that the Indonesian hospital is in the Jabalia refugee camp where this battalion operates.

The IDF continued clearing operations in Daraj wal Tuffah, Gaza City, on December 26. The IDF said that all four battalions in Hamas’ Central Brigade, of which the Bureij Battalion is apart, have sustained “some damage” but are “largely functioning.”[28] The IDF killed the Central Brigade commander in mid-October, but his deputy likely commands the brigade now given that Hamas has a conventional military structure.[29] Hamas and its militia allies attempted to defend against the IDF’s advance. The al Qassem Brigades detonated a booby-trapped tunnel targeting Israeli soldiers east of Bureij, and the National Resistance Brigades mortared Israeli forces near Abu Mutaybaq crossing.[30] The al Qassem Brigades also fired anti-tank rockets targeting advancing Israeli armor.[31]

PIJ mortared advancing Israeli units near Juhor ad Dik, northeast of Bureij, on December 26.

Palestinian militias continued to try to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis on December 25 and 26. Palestinian militias used mortars, small arms fire, and anti-tank rockets to defend against the Israeli advances. The al Qassem Brigades claimed seven attacks using mortars and anti-tank rockets on December 25 and 26, targeting Israeli forces north and east of Khan Younis city.[33] The al Quds Brigades said that its forces engaged in "heavy fighting” against IDF forces north and east of the city.[34] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, and the National Resistance Brigades similarly attempted to defend against Israeli advances north of Khan Younis on December 25 and 26.[35]

The IDF 4th Brigade Combat Team (BCT) destroyed “dozens of tunnel shafts” and discovered and destroyed a weapons factory in Khan Younis on December 25.[36] The IDF also said the 4th BCT destroyed a “concrete factory” that Hamas used to manufacture concrete for building tunnels.[37] The IDF 7th Brigade called in airstrikes targeting a group of Hamas fighters in Khan Younis on December 26, killing 10.[38]

Hamas’ political leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, said that Hamas is inflicting “heavy [Israeli] losses” and that the al Qassem Brigades “destroyed” the IDF and will “crush it.” Sinwar claimed that Hamas forces killed at least 1,650 Israeli soldiers and permanently disabled 1,650 more.[39] He added that Hamas has destroyed 750 IDF vehicles “completely or partially.” Sinwar provided no evidence to support his assertions and was likely exaggerating dramatically to frame Hamas as performing better militarily than it actually is. The IDF reported that 161 soldiers have been killed in action as of December 26.

A Hamas security official shot and killed a fifteen-year-old Palestinian boy at an aid distribution site in Rafah on December 24, demonstrating the continued breakdown of governance and social order across the Gaza Strip. The killing sparked clashes between Hamas security officers and the boy’s family in Tal al Sultan. A crowd formed after the killing, burning a Hamas police station and demanding revenge for the boy’s death.[42] A separate video showed plainclothes Hamas officers beating an individual with a stick in Khan Younis.[43] These reports are consistent with the Associated Press’s November 10 reporting, which noted that the strip’s society was “fraying” and that the population was beginning to push back against Hamas’ rule in the southern Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias conducted at least two mortar attacks from the Gaza Strip targeting southern Israel on December 25 and five rocket attacks on December 26. The al Quds Brigades and the National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed one mortar attack each targeting southern Israel on December 25.[45] The al Quds Brigades claimed five more rocket attacks targeting southern Israel on December 26.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in nine locations across the West Bank on December 25. Palestinian fighters used a combination of IEDs and small arms in three of the nine clashes.[48] Palestinian militias also detonated two separate IEDs targeting Israeli forces in near Ramallah and Bethlehem.[49] Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fighters fired small arms targeting Israeli forces in Tulkarm, Jenin, and Nablus on December 25.[50] Israeli forces arrested 11 people and confiscated weapons and cars in overnight raids throughout the West Bank on December 25.

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in four locations across the West Bank on December 26. Palestinian fighters used a combination of IEDs and small arms in three of the nine clashes.[48] Palestinian militias also detonated two separate IEDs targeting Israeli forces in near Ramallah and Bethlehem.[49] Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fighters fired small arms targeting Israeli forces in Tulkarm, Jenin, and Nablus on December 25.[50] Israeli forces arrested 11 people and confiscated weapons and cars in overnight raids throughout the West Bank on December 25.

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in four locations across the West Bank on December 26. Palestinian fighters used a combination of IEDs and small arms in three of the four clashes.[53] Palestinian media said that Israeli forces blew up three houses in Nour Shams refugee camp.[54] The IDF said its forces uncovered IEDs, an IED manufacturing site, makeshift rockets, and small arms in the camp.[55]

Israeli forces arrested several senior Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) militia in overnight raids in Ramallah on December 26.[56] The PFLP’s Office of Martyrs, Prisoners, and Wounded said that the arrests were an Israeli attempt to empty the West Bank of any national or political mobilization and that the arrests would only lead to “adverse results.”[57] Palestinians demonstrated in support of the Gaza Strip and Palestinian prisoners in Bethlehem and Nablus on December 26.[58] Several civil society and political groups, including Hamas’ political wing, called for mass demonstrations in the West Bank on December 26.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 10 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 25.[60] LH claimed responsibility for eight of these attacks, targeting civilian and military sites. LH used an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) in at least one of the attacks.[61] The al Qassem Brigades separately conducted an indirect fire attack targeting Israeli forces in northern Israel.

Iranian-backed militias, including LH, conducted another nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 26.[63] LH claimed responsibility for eight of these attacks, targeting military sites. LH used an ATGM in at least one of the attacks and a Burkan short-range rocket in at least one of the attacks.[64] LH also conducted a drone attack on an Israeli military site.[65]

Unspecified militants separately fired a surface-to-air missile targeting an IDF aircraft around the Israel-Lebanon border.

Israeli media reported on December 24 that LH began withdrawing many of its forces, including Radwan special operations forces, from the Israel-Lebanon border.[67] Israeli officials told Israeli media that it is not clear for how long these LH forces will remain deployed away from the border, however. Israeli media attributed the withdrawal to the high rate of casualties that LH forces have incurred.

CTP-ISW is considering the hypothesis that LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah ordered the withdrawals to alleviate Israeli concerns about the threat that LH poses. Israeli officials have expressed concerns in recent weeks about the potential for LH to conduct an attack into Israel similar to what Hamas did on October 7.[68] Israeli officials have accordingly discussed called for international diplomatic engagement to get LH to move its forces away from the border in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which prohibits LH forces from operating south of the Litani river.[69] Nasrallah withdrawing forces now without further international negotiations would allow him to redeploy forces to the border at a later date of his choosing.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The United States conducted airstrikes targeting three Kataib Hezbollah (KH) drone facilities in Hillah, Babil Province, Iraq, on December 25 in response to a KH drone attack that wounded three US military personnel at Erbil International Airport earlier that day.[70] The US airstrikes killed at least one KH member and wounded at least 16 others.[71] Western observers noted that the earlier KH drone attack was one of the "most serious” attacks conducted by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias since the Israel-Hamas war began.[72] The KH attack put one US servicemember in critical condition.[73] KH has not claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing. The Iraqi federal government condemned the US airstrike but also said that the militia attacks against military bases hosting international coalition advisers “violate Iraqi sovereignty.”

The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—an Iraqi security service containing several Iranian-backed Shia militias—held a funeral for the KH member who was killed in the US airstrikes.[75] Many individuals at the funeral carried PMF flags, while a small number carried Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) flags.[76] HHN is one of the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that has led the attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began. The PMF and KH-affiliated media honored the killed KH member in social media posts.[77] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Ashab al Kahf published a statement claiming that the US killing of Iraqi militants increases their determination and resolve to expel US forces.[78] Ashab al Kahf added that the United States “will not enjoy security and safety throughout our country and the region as long as there is a pulsing vein in us.”

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria on December 25 and 26.

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting US forces at al Harir Airbase in Erbil Province, Iraq, on December 25.[79] Al Harir Airbase is located approximately 30 miles northeast of Erbil International Airport.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting US forces at al Omar oilfield in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria, on December 25.[80] The group also claimed a rocket attack targeting US forces at al Shaddadi in Hasakah Province, Syria, on December 26.

Iranian Supreme National Defense University (SNDU) President IRGC Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam discussed security and counterterrorism cooperation with Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh in Baghdad on December 26 Moghaddam and Fayyadh discussed “exchanging experiences and information” between the SNDU and PMF. The meeting between Moghaddam and Fayyadh may have been part of ongoing Iranian efforts to professionalize and institutionalize the PMF. Doing so would consolidate Iranian influence in the Iraqi security sector since the IRGC strongly influences various militias under the PMF. Moghaddam previously served as Iran’s police chief between 2005 and 2015.[83] He was instrumental in the Iranian regime’s crackdown on the 2009 Green Movement and was sanctioned by the United States in 2011 for committing human rights abuses.[84] Moghaddam also met with Iraqi National Defense University President Lieutenant General Aqeel Mustafa Mahdi, Iraqi Federal Police head Major General Saleh Naser al Ameri, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasem al Araji, and Iraqi Interior Minister Abdul al Shammari during his visit to Baghdad between December 24 and 26.[85] Moghaddam may have discussed internal security and his experience suppressing civil unrest during his conversations with Iraqi officials.

Israel was likely responsible for an airstrike on the IRGC military headquarters near Sayyidah Zainab, Syria, on December 25, killing senior IRGC officer Brigadier General Razi Mousavi. Mousavi is the most senior IRGC official killed since Israel assassinated Brigadier General Mohsen Fakhri Zadeh near Tehran in November 2020 and the most senior IRGC commander killed in Syria since 2015.[87] Iranian officials and state media emphasized Mousavi’s close relationship with former IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani and former IRGC Quds Force Deputy Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi. They also described him as one of the most important and experienced IRGC commanders in Syria overseeing Iranian support to the Axis of Resistance.[88] Western and anti-regime media reported that Mousavi headed Quds Force Unit 2250, which manages Iranian weapons shipments to LH and to Iranian-backed groups in Syria.[89] Israeli officials told an Israeli journalist that Israel will not accept responsibility for Mousavi’s death.[90] Israel previously conducted an airstrike on Sayyidah Zainab on December 2, killing two IRGC general officers.[91] Israel also conducted airstrikes on Sayyidah Zainab on December 10.[92]

The IRGC and senior Iranian officials vowed that Iran would retaliate against Israel for Mousavi’s death.[93] Western media reported that the IDF was on high-alert and expected large-scale rocket and drone attacks launched from Lebanon and Syria.[94] Iran may be responsible for an explosion that occurred near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi on December 26, which could be part of the Iranian retaliation for Israel killing Mousavi.[95] Iran is likely responsible for previous attacks near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, which makes this hypothesis plausible. An explosion occurred at the embassy in January 2021. Local authorities discovered a note at the scene that stated that the explosion was in response to Israel killing Fakhri Zadeh in November 2020.[96]

The likely Israeli airstrike that killed Mousavi follows other alleged Israeli action against Iranian interests in recent weeks. An Israel-affiliated hacktivist group “Predatory Sparrow” conducted a large-scale cyberattack against gas pumps throughout Iran on December 18.[97] Iran also blamed Israel for a Balochi Salafi-jihadi insurgent attack on a police station in Sistan and Baluchistan Province on December 16.

The Houthis attacked two vessels in the Red Sea on December 26 as part of the ongoing anti-shipping attack campaign that they and Iran have conducted around the Bab al Mandeb in recent weeks. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea claimed that the group fired anti-ship missiles at the Liberia-flagged, Swiss-owned cargo ship MSC United after the crew refused orders from Houthi naval forces.[99] The missiles did not strike the MSC United, which was traveling from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan.[100] The Houthis falsely claim that they only target ships headed to Israeli ports or owned by Israelis.[101] The UK Maritime Trade Operations organization announced that two one-way drones exploded near a vessel 50 nautical miles west of Yemen in a separate incident on December 26.[102] Sarea did not claim responsibility for the second attack, and the attack did not cause damage.

The IDF intercepted at least one Houthi drone targeting southern Israel on December 26. The Houthi military spokesperson said that the group launched attack drones at military targets in Eilat and other unspecified locations in Israel.[104] The IDF stated its fighter jets intercepted a hostile aerial target headed to Israel over the Red Sea.[105] Egyptian security sources speaking to Reuters stated that an unspecified actor intercepted a drone over the Egyptian Red Sea town of Dahab.

International shipping giant Maersk announced on December 24 it is preparing to resume shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea since the US established Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial traffic there. Maersk halted traffic through the Red Sea on December 15, a day after the Houthis conducted a missile attack targeting one of its container ships near the Bab al Mandeb.[108] The United States announced Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18 to address Houthi attacks on international shipping around the Bab al Mandeb.[109] The Iranian regime claimed that the US-led coalition was ”collapsing” on December 23.[110] Maersk’s decision to resume shipping as a result of the coalition refutes the Iranian information operation.

Western media reported on December 26 that a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report confirmed that Iran has increased its production rate of highly enriched uranium (HEU).[111] The report was sent to IAEA member states. CTP-ISW is treating this information with some skepticism, as Western media has previously published inaccurate interpretations of unpublished agency reports.[112] The most recent public IAEA reports in November 2023 said that Iran had slowed its enrichment rate of 60 percent HEU.[113] Iran and the United States concluded an informal agreement in August 2023 under which Iran would partially slow down and reverse its nuclear advances in return for the United States unfreezing Iranian financial assets in Qatari banks.[114] The United States reportedly refroze Iranian assets in October 2023 that it had released as part of the agreement.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war and Egyptian-Iranian relations during a phone call with Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry on December 25.[116] The ministers discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire and for the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war and regional maritime security during a phone call with Jordanian Foreign Affairs Minister Ayman Safadi on December 25. Abdollahian said that a ceasefire would ensure the safety of the region. Abdollahian added that Iran is committed to ensuring the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, ignoring the fact that Iran has conducted and facilitated repeated attacks against commercial vessels in these areas in recent weeks.

Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Faisal Mekdad in Tehran on December 25.[118] The two emphasized the need for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war. Mekdad was in Tehran to attend the Tehran International Conference on Palestine, which the regime held on December 23.

The Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) signed a free trade agreement with Iran on December 25.[120] The agreement will eliminate customs duties on almost 90 percent of goods and establish a preferential regime for most of the trade between Russia and Iran. This agreement serves to replace a similar temporary agreement that has been in force since 2019.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-26-2023

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 27, 2023
Dec 27, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, December 27, 2023

Brian Carter, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, and Johanna Moore

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are driving an escalation cycle that combines military and political pressure to try to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. US, UN, Saudi, and Yemeni officials are negotiating an agreement to end the war in Yemen, which will not remove the threat the Houthis pose to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandeb.
3. The IRGC spokesperson claimed that the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel was retaliation for the United States’ targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani. This was a failed effort to show unity across the Axis of Resistance and portray Iran as a leader.
4. The IDF officially began operations against Palestinian militias in Khuzaa south of Khan Younis on December 27.
5. Palestinian political factions, including Hamas and PIJ, affirmed their unity against Israel on December 27. They stressed the need for a reform of Palestinian governance after the end of the war but did not specify what reform would entail.
6. An Israel Army Radio correspondent reported on December 27 that the IDF intercepted an Iranian-made drone over the Mediterranean Sea that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched from Iraq.
7. Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct trade using their national currencies rather than the US dollar.

Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are driving an escalation cycle that combines military and political pressure to try to expel US forces from Iraq. Iranian-backed militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba said on December 11 that expelling US forces requires political efforts from the government and military efforts from the militias.[1] Iranian-backed attacks against US forces combine both military and political effects to drive US forces from Iraq, which is a long-held objective for Iran and its proxies. Iranian-backed militias—not the United States—are driving the escalation in Iraq by conducting attacks that risk killing US military personnel to trigger US self-defense airstrikes against the militias.[2] These Iranian-backed groups then frame these self-defense airstrikes as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty to argue that the Iraqi government should expel the United States from Iraq. The United States is in Iraq at the invitation of Iraq’s government to defeat ISIS, meaning that Iranian-backed attacks on an Iraqi partner are themselves a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.[3]

The Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are using legal and political pressure to drive out US forces, as CTP-ISW has previously assessed.[4] The militias’ military lines of effort create the conditions for Iranian-backed proxies to increase the legal and political pressure on Iraq’s parliament and prime minister. The Badr Organization-chaired Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee drafted a new resolution to expel US forces from Iraq in response to a US self-defense strike targeting Kataib Hezbollah in November, and multiple Iranian-backed politicians have called for the expulsion of US forces in the wake of the December 25 US airstrikes.[5] The November strike was in response to a KH ballistic missile attack targeting US forces in Iraq.[6] Iranian-backed proxies called US forces a “threat” and demanded a timetable for a US withdrawal in separate statements after the December 25 US airstrikes.[7] The US strikes were a response to an Iranian-backed attack that wounded two US service members and severely injured a third.[8] The agreement that allows the US military presence in Iraq is an executive agreement, but a non-binding resolution will still impose political pressure on the prime minister to expel US forces.[9] The prime minister could choose to expel US forces by introducing a timetable, such as the one former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki set in the 2000s.

US, UN, Saudi, and Yemeni officials are negotiating an agreement to end the war in Yemen, which will not remove the threat the Houthis pose to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandeb. US, UN, Saudi, and Yemeni officials told the Wall Street Journal that there is now an “informal three-year roadmap” to “end” the war in Yemen.[10] The negotiations did not include key Yemeni belligerents.[11] A US official told the Journal that the United States is “separating” the Yemeni “peace” process and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. “Sources familiar with Saudi thinking” said that Riyadh urged Washington not to retaliate against the Houthis, however.[12] Saudi Arabia seeks to prevent US strikes targeting the Houthis, believing that US strikes risk derailing the peace process.[13] Reaching an agreement would not change Riyadh’s calculus, as discouraging US efforts to deter Houthi terrorism and piracy in the Red Sea would prevent a breakdown in the agreement.

The IRGC spokesperson claimed that the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel was retaliation for the United States’ targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani in a failed effort to show unity across the Axis of Resistance and portray Iran as a leader.[15] IRGC Spokesperson Brigadier General Ramazan Sharif claimed that Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 civilians was in response to the United States’ targeted killing of RGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani.[16] Iran funded, supported, and provided the weapons and training used in the October 7 attacks, but was reportedly surprised by the scope and timing of the attacks.[17]

Hamas denied the Iranian claim, likely to present itself domestically and internationally as only the defender of Palestine and thereby obfuscate its role as the initiator of the current war and an extension of Iran’s regional project. Iran has provided weapons, materiel, training, and guidance to Hamas, and the group is a member of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance.[18] The group's leaders frequently meet with Iranian officials and coordinate their actions with Iran.[19]

Hamas likely seeks to frame itself as the defender of Palestine in part to prevent blowback from its domestic audiences. Palestinians have borne the brunt of Hamas’ decision to launch its war against Israel with the October 7 terrorist attacks. Hamas’ popularity decreased in the Gaza Strip after the 2008 and 2014 Israeli ground operations.[20] Recent polls show that support for Hamas remains high in Gaza, although anecdotal evidence suggests that some Gazans increasingly blame Hamas for starting the war and/or for failing to provide for and protect civilians having begun it.[21] Hamas officials found after Israeli operations in Gaza City in 2014 that the Gazan public "did not feel they were getting the benefits [from Hamas] for tolerating the bombing of Gaza by Israel,” for example.[22] Accepting Iran’s claim that Hamas attacked Israel to avenge the death of an Iranian general could alienate Gazans. Iran’s presentation of the October 7 attacks as an offensive action in response to the Soleimani strike also undermines the current Hamas narratives that it is acting defensively against Israeli "aggression” and on behalf of the Gazan people rather than solely on behalf of Iran.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Hamas used more sophisticated weapons systems as it continued to try to defend against Israeli advances in Jabalia. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas' military wing—said that it fired an RPO-A thermobaric rocket for the first time during this war at an Israeli special operations forces (SOF) unit in a house on Old Gaza Street in Jabalia.[23] The group also detonated at least one explosively formed penetrator targeting Israeli forces during a six-hour engagement in the al Saftawi area.[24] Al Qassem Brigades fighters also fired two Igla man-portable air defense systems targeting two Israeli helicopters over Jabalia.[25] The group did not shoot down the helicopters.

Palestinian militias other than Hamas continued to attack Israeli forces in Sheikh Radwan The National Resistance Brigades—the armed wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—and the Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the armed wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—engaged Israeli forces in two separate attacks in Sheikh Radwan.[26]

The Israel Defense Forces Navy provided fire support to Israeli forces in northern al Shati Camp on December 27, which is consistent with holding operations.[27] Violence decreases during a hold phase but is not absent as the holding force seeks the complete destruction of the enemy force.

The IDF continued clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods in Gaza City. An IDF unit captured a rocket launch site and a tunnel shaft in an orchard near Darraj and Tuffah on December 27.[28] Palestinian fighters engaged the IDF with small arms and anti-tank fire as the IDF cleared the orchard.[29] A separate IDF unit called in air support during clearing operations in Darraj to eliminate a large number of Hamas fighters.

The IDF’s line of advance reached eastern Bureij on December 27, according to satellite imagery published by the New York Times.[31] The IDF announced that it began operations in Gaza’s Central Governorate on December 26.[32] Palestinian militias attempted to defend against the Israeli advance using mortars and anti-tank fire.[33] The al Quds Brigades—the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s military wing—claimed that it destroyed an Israeli tank east of Bureij.[34] Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades and the PFLP’s Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades also engaged Israeli forces using small arms and anti-tank fire.[35] The Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades said that their “strike unit” attacked Israeli advances towards eastern Bureij.

Palestinian militias continued defensive operations against Israeli clearing efforts in Khan Younis. The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades conducted three attacks with anti-tank rockets targeting Israeli forces and tanks in Khan Younis.[37] The al Quds Brigades ambushed an Israeli infantry unit at close range in Khan Younis.[38] The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas' military wing—attacked Israeli forces at least four times in northern and eastern Khan Younis using mortars, RPGs, and small arms.[39] National Resistance Brigades—the armed wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)— detonated IEDs targeting an Israeli military vehicle in central Khan Younis.[40] The IDF said its forces have fought in Palestinian fighters deep Khan Younis for the past two weeks.[41] The Israeli forces have destroyed tunnel openings, launched dozens of attacks with precision munitions, and raided Hamas outposts during the operation.

The IDF officially began operations against Palestinian militias in Khuzaa south of Khan Younis on December 27. IDF Gaza Division Commander Brigadier General Avi Rosenfeld issued a statement acknowledging that the IDF began operating in the town southeast of Khan Younis to pursue fighters and subterranean infrastructure.[43] Rosenfeld said fighters from Khuzaa participated in the October 7 assault on Nir Oz.[44] Palestinian media reported that Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces advancing southward in the adjacent town to Khuzaa on December 26.[45] The al Qassem Brigades attacked Israeli SOF in a building in Khuzaa on December 25.

The Israeli security cabinet discussed the first section of the Egyptian three-phase peace proposal on December 27. The Israeli security cabinet is a 14-person cabinet.The first phase of the agreement resembles the humanitarian pause and prisoner/hostage exchange Israeli and Hamas completed in late November.[48] The first phase of the agreement would have Hamas release 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for Israel releasing 140 Palestinian prisoners and force the IDF to withdraw from residential areas in the Gaza Strip.[49] The Israeli security cabinet is only discussing this first phase of the proposal. The Israeli security cabinet is not discussing the subsequent phases of the proposal that would release Israeli soldiers from Hamas custody and determine the form of a transitional government in the Gaza Strip that would include “various Palestinian factions, including Hamas.”[50] The security cabinet did not vote on the plan.[51]

Hamas officials have said repeatedly in recent days that they would refuse to release any hostages prior to a complete ceasefire that forces Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and leaves Hamas in power.[52] The third phase proposal and Hamas’ counterproposal are incompatible with Israel’s stated war aims. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu restated his war objectives of destroying Hamas militarily and politically in Gaza on December 25.[53] Any agreement that maintains Hamas’ military and political role in the Gaza Strip would be tantamount to Israel’s defeat in this war because it would preserve Hamas as a governing body and military force, as well as provide Hamas safe haven to reconstitute itself and threaten Israel again in the future.

Palestinian political factions, including Hamas and PIJ, affirmed their unity against Israel on December 27. The Central Command of the Palestinian Forces Alliance met in Beirut to discuss joint goals of withdrawing Israeli forces from Gaza, swapping all Israeli hostages for all Palestinian prisoners, and attaining humanitarian aid for Gaza.[54] The groups that are part of the alliance include Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Fatah, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front, and the Palestine Liberation Front. The political factions stressed the need for a reform of Palestinian governance after the end of the war but did not specify what reform would entail.[55] The meeting is notable in context of the Egyptian peace deal that Hamas and PIJ rejected on December 25.[56] A Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) executive committee delegation will travel to Cairo in the next few days for talks with Egyptian officials about the Egyptian three-phase peace proposal.[57] The PLO is expected to discuss the makeup of a potential, unified government that would run the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Palestinian militias conducted one indirect fire attack into Israel on December 27. The Quds Brigade fired mortars and rockets at Nahal Oz in southern Israel.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in six locations across the West Bank from December 26 through December 27.[60] The Israeli forces conducted a counterterrorism raid in Nur Shams refugee camp on December 26.[61] Israeli forces uncovered IEDs that had been buried under and next to roads its forces were operating on.[62] Palestinian fighters also threw IEDs at Israeli forces during clashes that lasted from December 26 through December 27.[63] Israeli forces ordered an air strike on fighters that it said were throwing explosives at its forces.[64]

Fatah—the political wing of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—called for strikes in the West Bank to mourn the death of six Palestinian fighters who were killed in the Israeli airstrike in Tulkarm.[65] The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade claimed that the six fighters were members of its Rapid Response unit operating in the Nur Shams refugee camp.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed six attacks targeting Israeli civilian and military targets on December 27.[67] LH conducted a combined drone, mortar, and rocket attack targeting Israeli military positions in the disputed Shebaa Farms.[68] The IDF said LH’s three drones did not hit their intended targets.[69] LH said that it launched 30 rockets at Kiryat Shmona in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed three people in southern Lebanon.[70] Israel said that it struck several LH positions in southern Lebanon on December 27.

The IDF continued to discuss the threat that LH poses along Israel’s northern border on December 27. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi held a situation assessment and approved “a variety of” future, unspecified plans in the Northern Command, which is responsible for northern Israel and the border with Lebanon.[72] Halevi stated that the military is “at a very high level of readiness,” and that the IDF needs to be ready for an offensive into southern Lebanon, if necessary.[73] Israeli officials agreed on December 19 to give the Biden administration time for a diplomatic solution between Israel and LH but added that they “wanted to see progress in the next few weeks.”[74] Israeli officials seek to use diplomatic measures to pressure the Lebanese state to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which bars LH military units from operating south of the Litani River.[75] The Israeli Army Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that LH is endangering the stability of the region for the benefit of Hamas and compared LH to Hamas on December 26.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

An Israel Army Radio correspondent reported on December 27 that the IDF intercepted an Iranian-made drone over the Mediterranean Sea that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched from Iraq.[77] IDF Army Radio correspondent said that the drone appeared to be heading toward the Karish gas field.[78] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed on December 22 that it had attacked a “vital target” in the Mediterranean Sea.[79] The IDF did not confirm that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted such an attack.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting US forces at Erbil International Airport in Erbil Province, Iraq, on December 27. Kataib Hezbollah, which is a member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, also conducted an attack on US forces at Erbil International Airport on December 25 that wounded three US service members.

The Iraqi Army Chief of Staff announced plans to complete the transfer of security responsibilities from the Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of Interior in 2024.[82] The Iraqi Army has already transferred security responsibilities to local police in various southern and central provinces, including Babil, Najaf, Al Muthanna, and Wasit.

IRGC Quds Force officer Brigadier General Razi Mousavi, who was killed in Syria on December 25, oversaw logistics and acquisitions in Syria, according to former IRGC Quds Force Officer Mansour Hajit Pour.[84] Pour told IRGC-affiliated news outlet Tasnim that Mousavi started his career with the Quds Force in Lebanon 30 years ago.[85] Mousavi also worked closely with Syrian President Bashar al Assad and former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani to combat ISIS.[86] Pour said that Mousavi’s primary responsibility in Syria was overseeing logistics and providing “strategic products.”[87] Pour’s description is consistent with Western and anti-regime media reporting that said that Mousavi headed Quds Force Unit 2250.[88] Unit 2250 manages Iranian weapons shipments to LH and Iranian-backed groups in Syria.[89] The IRGC Quds Force has coordinated the deployment of hundreds of Iranian-backed fighters in southern Lebanon and southwest Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began.[90] These fighters include military engineers and missile experts, among others.

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces held a funeral procession for Mousavi in Najaf, Iraq, on December 27.[92] Mourners carried Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba flags in the funeral procession.[93] Iranian Ambassador to Iraq and former IRGC Quds Force officer Mohammad Kazem al-e Sadegh attended Mousavi’s procession.[94] Iran will hold Mousavi’s official funeral ceremony in Imam Hussein Square, Tehran on December 28.

Atomic Energy Organization head Mohammad Eslami denied on December 27 that Iran has increased its production rate of highly enriched uranium to 60 percent. Eslami’s denial is in response to Western media reports on December 26 that said that Iran increased its production rate of highly enriched uranium to 60 percent.[97] Eslami stated that the reports show “nothing new” and insisted that Iran is operating within the International Atomic Energy Agency framework. Eslami stated that the leaked report is an attempt to turn attention away from the Israel-Hamas war.

Central Bank of Iran Governor Mohammad Farzin traveled to Moscow on December 26 to discuss banking and finalize trade agreements with Russian officials.[98] IRIB reported that the bank managers of the Bank of Russia and the National Bank of Iran established a credit line worth 6.5 billion rubles (approx. $70 million) to allow Iran to import basic goods from Russia. Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct trade using their national currencies —rather than the US dollar— on December 27.[99] Iranian media said that this agreement allows previously established non-SWIFT messaging systems and bilateral brokerage relations to now be used by banks and economic operators.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian traveled to Yerevan, Armenia, on December 27 to discuss peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Armenian officials.[101] Abdollahian met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, and National Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan.[102] Abdollahian stated that the United States must end its support for Israel if it seeks a “dignified exit” from the Israel-Hamas war during a press conference with Mirzoyan.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-27-2023

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 30, 2023
Dec 30, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, December 30, 2023

Annika Ganzeveld, Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Peter Mills, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City. Israeli forces continued executing tasks consistent with holding operations in some areas of Gaza City. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Beit Lahiya and Sheikh Radwan in the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Palestinian militias are launching attacks from civilian-populated areas of al Bureij as Israeli forces advance clearing operations in the Central Governorate. Palestinian militias claimed several attacks on Israeli forces north and east of al Bureij, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that the IDF appears to be isolating Hamas’ Bureij Battalion and other Palestinian militias there before reducing them.
3. The IDF continued to make ground advances in and around Khan Younis. At least five Palestinian militias attempted to defend against Israeli advances into Khan Younis. Palestinian militia fighters attacked Israeli forces south of Khan Younis.
4. Hamas and PFLP officials messaged a unified and positive position on the Egyptian peace proposal and accused Israel of spreading disinformation about the negotiations.
5. Palestinian fighters conducted at least two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in three locations across the West Bank.
7. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
8. The Axis of Resistance may escalate further against US forces in the region around the four-year anniversary of the US killing Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2024. The IRGC Quds Force is engaging with senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia and political leaders likely to discuss their military and political campaign to expel US forces.
9. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani ordered the opening of Celebration Square in Baghdad’s Green Zone for New Year’s Eve.
10. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria.
11. The Shia Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of Iranian-backed political parties—is conducting a series of political maneuvers to try to increase its political influence in Basra.
12. Israel was likely responsible for a series of airstrikes targeting Aleppo International Airport and Iranian and Iranian-backed targets in Albu Kamal, Syria, to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah.
13. The Houthi military spokesperson warned the United States against “escalating” with the Houthis and rallying other nations to protect Israeli shipping.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City on December 30. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it was operating in Daraj and Tuffah on December 21.[1] Palestinian militias have since then claimed several attacks on Israeli forces attempting to clear the remaining areas in the northern Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—published footage on December 29 of its fighters firing rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) at Israeli tanks from destroyed buildings in Darraj and Tuffah.[2] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—fired tandem charged anti-tank rockets and RPGs at Israeli tanks and troop carriers as Israeli forces advanced into the neighborhoods.[3] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—fired tandem charged anti-tank rockets and RPGs at an Israeli tank and bulldozer in Tuffah.

Israeli forces continued executing tasks consistent with holding operations in some areas of Gaza City. CTP-ISW reported on December 20 that Israeli forces are transitioning from clearing operations to holding operations in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip.[5] Violence decreases during a hold phase but is not absent, as the holding force seeks the complete destruction of the enemy force.[6] Palestinian attacks in these areas demonstrate that the militias have retained some forces capable of targeting Israeli operations.

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters on December 30 in Sheikh Ijlin neighborhood for the first time since mid-November.[7] Israeli forces initially advanced toward the neighborhood in southern Gaza City in mid-November.[8] The al Qassem Brigades conducted several attacks, including a complex attack in which its fighters detonated improvised explosive devices (IED) in the path of two Israeli vehicles and subsequently engaged Israeli ground forces.[9]
Israeli forces identified Palestinian fighters operating near them in Shujaiya, according to an IDF report on December 30.[10] The IDF stated that it established “operational control” of Shujaiya on December 21 after dismantling Hamas’ battalion there.[11]
Israeli forces engaged in a multi-hour battle with Palestinian fighters in Gaza City, according to an IDF report on December 30.[12] Israeli air forces killed more than 15 Palestinian fighters in less than three hours.[13] Israeli ground forces engaged Palestinian fighters following the airstrikes.[14]
The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades conducted a combined operation firing mortars and rockets at an Israeli combat outpost southeast of Zaytoun neighborhood in Gaza City on December 30.[15] The Hamas Zaytoun Battalion commander is one of the three remaining commanders in the Gaza City Brigade, who held their current positions before the war began, according to Israeli reports on December 21.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Beit Lahiya and Sheikh Radwan in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces destroyed two Hamas-affiliated buildings in Beit Lahiya and found a large quantity of weapons, including explosive devices.[17] The IDF identified two Palestinian fighters observing Israeli forces from a building and directed tank fire at their position.[18] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli special operations forces and detonated a Shawaz explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an Israeli tank in Sheikh Radwan on December 30.[19] Palestinian militias have claimed nearly daily attacks in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood since the humanitarian pause expired on December 1, suggesting that it is one of the remaining areas with significant Palestinian militia defensive capabilities in the northern Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias are launching attacks from civilian-populated areas of al Bureij as Israeli forces advance clearing operations in the Central Governorate. Israeli forces received intelligence on December 28 that Hamas fighters were hiding inside a school where civilians were sheltering in southern al Bureij.[20] Palestinian fighters fired RPGs and small arms at Israeli forces while hiding behind women and children inside the school, according to the IDF.[21] Israeli forces raided the school and cleared the building of Palestinian fighters.[22] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that Hamas continues to use civilians as human shields, which intentionally puts these civilians in harm's way, to protect Hamas’ military infrastructure and weapons.[23] Israeli forces in a separate instance encountered Hamas fighters, who launched attacks from civilian sites in al Bureij.[24]

Palestinian militias claimed several attacks on Israeli forces north and east of al Bureij, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that the IDF appears to be isolating Hamas’ Bureij Battalion and other Palestinian militias there before reducing them.[25] The al Qassem Brigades conducted several attacks on Israeli forces in the area, including claiming to use a Shawaz EFP to target an Israeli tank north of al Bureij.[26] Israeli forces face other Palestinian militias in the central Gaza Strip. The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Resistance Committees—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces north of al Bureij.[27] The al Quds Brigades detonated an unspecified explosive device targeting an Israeli military vehicle east of al Bureij.[28] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed to fire tandem-charge anti-tank rockets at Israeli forces east of Bureij as well.

The IDF continued to make ground advances in and around Khan Younis on December 30. The IDF said it began ground maneuvers deeper into southern Khan Younis on December 30, a day after it said it was expanding operations there.[30] The IDF 98th Division conducted around 50 airstrikes as part of shaping operations to enable ground force maneuvers.[31] Shaping operations conducted through airstrikes change the operational environment in urban areas to favor Israeli clearing operations on the ground.[32] The 7th Brigade Combat Team raided a Hamas military intelligence headquarters in central Khan Younis as part of the clearing operations.[33] Israeli forces also found an al Quds Brigades operations room inside the Hamas compound.[34] This raid could degrade the defensive capabilities of Hamas’ Khan Younis Battalion and al Quds Brigades forces in Khan Younis. Israeli forces separately clashed with Palestinian fighters as Israeli air support struck fighters, weapons manufacturing sites, and a Hamas stronghold in Khan Younis.[35] The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on December 30 that intensified clashes in Khan Younis and Deir al Balah have caused at least 100,000 internally displaced people to arrive in Rafah in recent days.[36]

At least five Palestinian militias attempted to defend against Israeli advances into Khan Younis on December 30. The al Qassem Brigades conducted several attacks on Israeli armor and dismounted infantry on December 30, including sophisticated house-borne IED and EFP attacks.[37] Fighters from the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and the Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades fired anti-tank shells and small arms at Israeli armor and dismounted infantry on the advancing line in Khan Younis.[38] National Resistance Brigades fighters clashed with Israeli forces in central Khan Younis.[39] The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli positions in north and east of Khan Younis.[40]

Palestinian militia fighters attacked Israeli forces south of Khan Younis on December 30. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, al Qassem Brigades, and National Resistance Brigades mortared Israeli forces in Khuzaa, southeast of Khan Younis.[41] The IDF began clearing operations in Khuzaa on December 27.[42] The al Qassem Brigades fired an anti-tank shell at Israeli armor in Khuzaa.[43] The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades each mortared Israeli forces east of Rafah as well.

Hamas and PFLP officials messaged a unified and positive position on the Egyptian peace proposal and accused Israel of spreading disinformation about the negotiations on December 30. Israeli media said that Hamas had “agreed in principle” to the release of further hostages in exchange for a month-long pause in fighting, in contrast to Hamas’ previous position requiring the complete cessation of the conflict.[45] Hamas political officials abroad, such as Osama Hamdan and Hossam Badran, and senior PFLP official Maher Mezher rebuked the claim from Israeli media.[46] Hamdan reiterated that Hamas will only release the Israeli hostages once Israel stops its operation in the Gaza Strip.[47] Badran said that Hamas is discussing all peace proposals with the various factions but that hostages will only be released after the war ends.[48] Mezher said that the Palestinian political factions will deliver an amended proposal to Egypt in the coming days after they met to discuss and revise the Egyptian peace deal proposal on December 27.[49]. Mezher said that the Egyptian proposal is “suitable to be a cornerstone” of a deal.[50] The Israeli security cabinet has indicated that it will not seriously consider the Egyptian three-phase peace plan, as the Egyptian plan would prevent Israel from achieving its stated war aims and is therefore tantamount to a defeat for Israel.[51] The Egyptian proposal would form a transitional government in the Gaza Strip that would include “various Palestinian factions, including Hamas.”[52] Mezher and Hamdan claimed that Israel leaked the story to harm the united Palestinian front against the war and mislead Israelis about the release of hostages due to internal political pressure.[53] The Palestinian leaderships‘ recent comments are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that both Hamas’ political leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ external political leaders seek to use their Israeli hostages as leverage to maintain their influence in negotiations.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reaffirmed his commitment to pursuing his stated objectives in the war against Hamas and his preparedness to fight for many months on December 30. Netanyahu held a press conference and declared that “the war will continue for many more months.”[55] He also reiterated that Israel would fight until the elimination of Hamas and the release of all hostages.[56] He stated the IDF is employing new methods in the northern, central, and southern Gaza Strip.[57] Netanyahu had further clarified his war objectives of destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing “Palestinian society” in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on December 26.

Palestinian fighters conducted at least two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel on December 30. The al Quds Brigades claimed two rocket attacks targeting southern Israel on December 30.[59] The al Qassem Brigades published footage of its fighters firing approximately ten rockets into unspecified areas of Israel on December 29.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in three locations across the West Bank on December 30. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that it detonated an IED against an unspecified target in Azzun, east of Qalqilya.[61] Hamas praised a car-ramming attack that injured an IDF soldier near Hebron.[62] Palestinian security forces dismantled planted IEDs in Jenin on December 30.[63] Israeli forces conducted raids to arrest wanted Palestinians near Ramallah.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 30. LH fired rockets and anti-tank guided missiles toward three Israeli border positions.[65] LH also claimed that it attacked an Israeli military position in Shebaa Farms with one-way attack drones.[66] Unspecified fighters separately launched rockets toward Yiftah on December 30.[67]

Israeli politicians continue to emphasize that LH must withdraw from Lebanon’s border with Israel. Israeli war cabinet member and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated in a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Israel cannot tolerate the threat that LH poses and that LH must withdraw from the border for the sake of regional stability.[68] The chairman of Israeli political party Israel Beitenu and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman separately called for Israel to control southern Lebanon up to the Litani River until the Lebanese government can exercise its sovereignty over the area.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Axis of Resistance may escalate further against US forces in the region around the four-year anniversary of the US killing Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2024.The United States killed Soleimani and his top Iraqi lieutenant, Abu Mehdi al Muhandis, in an airstrike at the Baghdad International Airport in 2020.[70] Iranian leaders have vowed to expel US forces from the region as part of their revenge for the United States killing Soleimani.[71] Iranian-backed militias have conducted an abnormally high rate of attacks around the anniversary of Soleimani’s and Muhandis’ deaths ever year except for the anniversary in January 2023.[72] The absence of an Iranian-led escalation around January 2023 is unsurprising given that the Iranian regime was focused heavily on internal security in the aftermath of the Mahsa Amini protest movement at the time. Iranian proxy and partner militias have conducted a concerted attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria in recent months as part of Tehran’s effort to expel US forces, as CTP-ISW has reported extensively. The coincidence of this campaign with the anniversary of Soleimani’s and Muhandis’ deaths presents an increased risk to American servicemembers in the Middle East during this period.

The IRGC Quds Force is engaging with senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia and political leaders likely to discuss their military and political campaign to expel US forces. The Iranian Embassy in Baghdad organized a ceremony to honor Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mehdi al Muhandis on December 30.[73] The following senior Iranian and Iranian-backed Iraqi actors attended the ceremony:

• Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Mohammad Kazem al-e Sadegh[74]
• Former Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General and current Poplar Mobilization Forces (PMF) Chief of Staff Abdul Aziz al Muhammadawi[75]
• PMF Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh[76]
• Former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki[77]


The presence of al-e Sadegh is noteworthy given that he is a senior IRGC Quds Force officer. Iranian leaders have long appointed such officers as ambassador to Iraq, highlighting the degree to which the IRGC Quds Force controls and influences Iranian policy toward Iraq. These officers who dual hat as diplomats to Iraq serve as key liaisons between Iranian and Iraqi military and political leaders.

The presence of Mohammadawi and Fayyadh is noteworthy given their influential roles over Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. The PMF is an Iraqi security service containing numerous Iranian-backed Shia militias.[78] Several of these militias, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, are members of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq has conducted almost daily attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria in recent weeks as part of their campaign to expel US forces.

IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani appeared to speak on behalf of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in a speech on December 29. Ghaani warned that militias will “put aside their considerations” and “respond” to the United States if the United States continues its “irrational behavior” in Iraq.[79] Ghaani was likely referring to the self-defense strikes that the United States has conducted on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias when he referred to “irrational behavior.” Ghaani ignored in this statement that the United States has a legitimate right to self-defense as it operates in Iraq to fight ISIS at the invitation of the Iraqi federal government. Ghaani’s comment is especially noteworthy given that the IRGC Quds Force—and he as its commander—directs, manages, and supports the Iraqi Shia militias that have been conducting the attack campaign to expel US forces. The IRGC Quds Forces provide military equipment, funding, and training to its proxies and partners throughout the region to support Iran’s pursuit of its strategic objectives, which include expelling the United States from the region.[80] Ghaani’s remark belies repeated claims by Iranian officials that “resistance groups” in the Middle East act independently.[81]

Iranian-backed political actors continued to call for the removal of US forces from Iraq in statements on December 30. Iraqi militia leaders and politicians have increased their calls for the expulsion of US forces since the United States conducted self-defense strikes on three Kataib Hezbollah facilities in Hillah, Babil Province, on December 25.

• Nouri al Maliki claimed that US forces in Iraq have transformed “from advisory forces into killers” and that the Iraqi people will not accept the presence of foreign forces in Iraq during a speech at the Iranian Embassy in Baghdad.[82] Maliki’s claims echo similar ones from other Iranian-backed Iraqi actors that the presence of US forces in Iraq threatens Iraqi security and stability.[83] US advisory forces are currently deployed in Iraq for counter-ISIS operations at the invitation of the Iraqi government and provide planning, operational, intelligence, logistical, and fire support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).[84] CTP-ISW previously assessed that an Iraqi decision to expel US forces will very likely create space for ISIS to rapidly resurge in Syria within 12 to 24 months and then threaten Iraq.[85] The ISF still faces significant deficiencies in logistics, intelligence, and fire support that inhibit its ability to defeat ISIS alone.[86]
• A member of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq’s political wing, Ali Turki, stated that “dirty American hands” cannot shed the blood of the PMF and ISF.[87] Turki called on the Iraqi federal government to expedite the expulsion of US forces from Iraq.
• A member of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization’s political wing, Faleh al Khazali, separately stated that the presence of US forces in Iraq is “unjustified” because of the presence of 1.6 million Iraqi security personnel in the country.[88] Other Iranian-backed Iraqi politicians, including Mohammad Shia Sudani, have similarly cited Iraqi forces’ “increased capabilities” as justification for the removal of US forces.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani ordered the opening of Celebration Square in Baghdad’s Green Zone for New Year’s Eve.[90] Sudani ordered that the gates of the Green Zone, where the US Embassy and other government and highly sensitive facilities are located, remain open for an unspecified amount of time after midnight on December 31. PIJ and Hamas-affiliated Quds News Network separately called for demonstrations in front of US embassies across the world on New Year’s Eve to demand an end to “Israeli aggression” in the Gaza Strip.

The Islamic Resistance of Iraq claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria on December 29 and 30.[92] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a rocket attack targeting US forces at al Shaddadi, Hasakah Province, Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also claimed two separate one-way drone attacks targeting US forces at al Harir airbase in Erbil Province, Iraq.

The Shia Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of Iranian-backed political parties—is conducting a series of political maneuvers to try to increase its political influence in Basra. Basra is an important Shia stronghold in southern Iraq. Current Basra Governor Asaad al Eidani’s political party, the Design Alliance, won 12 out of 23 seats in the recent provincial council elections.[93] Informed sources told an independent Iraqi news outlet that members of the Shia Coordination Framework are lobbying the Iraqi judiciary to rule that a majority of seats in Basra requires 13—not 12—seats.[94] Such a decision would deprive Eidani’s party of a majority. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors have historically co-opted elements of the judiciary to politically benefit themselves and disadvantage opponents, especially in recent years.[95] The independent Iraqi outlet reported that the Shia Coordination Framework is suspicious of Eidani’s ties to rival Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr. Sadr has previously praised Eidani and members of the Design Alliance.

Israel was likely responsible for a series of airstrikes targeting Aleppo International Airport and Iranian and Iranian-backed targets in Albu Kamal, Syria, on December 29-30 to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to LH. Western and Israeli media reported and several social media accounts circulated reports of the airstrikes.[97] An unspecified American military official denied to Western media that the United States conducted any self-defense strikes.[98] The Syrian Defense Ministry claimed that the airstrike at Aleppo damaged the airport.[99] Israel has historically conducted airstrikes on major Syrian airports to prevent Iranian weapons deliveries to proxy and partner militias in Syria and Lebanon.[100] CTP-ISW has previously written on how the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) uses Iranian regime-affiliated airliners to transport military equipment and personnel to the Levant.[101] The likely Israeli airstrikes at Albu Kamal reportedly hit IRGC and Iranian-backed targets, including weapons depots and truck convoys as they crossed from Iraq into Syria. Those airstrikes killed several Iranian-backed militants, according to social media claims and Western and Israeli media reports. Israeli media reported that the airstrikes at Albu Kamal killed four LH members who were members of a unit responsible for transferring military technologies and weapons from Iran to Lebanon.[102] An Israeli social media account reported that Israel also targeted an IRGC Quds Force unit with similar responsibilities in the same strikes.[103]

The airstrikes follow reports that Israel has targeted IRGC and IRGC-affiliated actors that are trying to prepare LH for a wider conflict with Israel in recent weeks. Israeli media reported that an Israeli airstrike on the Damascus International Airport on December 28 was meant to interdict Iranian weapons transfers to LH.[104] An Israeli airstrike on the IRGC military headquarters in Sayyidah Zainab, Syria, on December 25 killed a senior IRGC commander who oversaw Iranian materiel support to LH.[105] Israeli media further reported that Iran has accelerated its weapons transfers to LH in anticipation of a wider war with Israel.[106]

The IDF stated that unspecified actors fired two rockets from Syria toward northern Israel following the most recent airstrikes on Albu Kumal.[107] This attack is unsurprising given that unspecified actors have repeatedly conducted small-scale indirect fire attacks into Israel immediately in response to Israeli airstrikes in Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began.

The Houthi military spokesperson warned the United States against “escalating” with the Houthis and rallying other nations to protect Israeli shipping on December 29. Brigadier General Yahya Sarea emphasized the Houthis’ defensive readiness and commitment to the Palestinian cause, which is consistent with prior Houthi rhetoric.[108] The Houthis have conducted an anti-shipping attack campaign around the Red Sea in recent weeks to disrupt commercial shipping to Israel and demonstrate both the willingness and capability of the Axis of Resistance to disrupt maritime traffic around strategic maritime chokepoints.[109] The United States announced Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18 to counter Houthi attacks on international shipping.

Senior Iranian military and political officials attended a commemoration ceremony for IRGC Brigadier General Razi Mousavi, whom Israel killed in an airstrike in Syria, on December 30.[111] The Iranian regime previously held a funeral ceremony for Mousavi on December 28.[112] Western and anti-regime media have reported that Mousavi headed IRGC Quds Force Unit 2250, which manages Iranian weapons shipments to LH and Iranian-backed militias in Syria.[113] Many high-ranking IRGC officials attended the most recent commemoration ceremony, including:

• IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami;
• IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh;
• IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Pak Pour;
• IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani; and
• IRGC Quds Force Deputy Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallah Zadeh.
Other notable attendees included Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Interior Minister and former IRGC Quds Force officer Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan, and former IRGC commanders Major General Mohammad Ali “Aziz” Jafari and Major General Mohsen Rezaei. The presence of such senior Iranian military and political officials at Mousavi’s commemoration ceremony and funeral highlights his prominence in the regime and its regional project.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-30-2023

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Saturday that Israel’s war with Palestinian militant group Hamas will “continue for many months until Hamas is eliminated and the hostages are returned”.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231230-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-us-government-bypasses-congress-with-emergency-munitions-sale-to-israel

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-12-30-2023-5f475fb7221f7e97251f58c3aae1aeb8

“As the chief of staff said this week, the war will continue many more months,” he told a televised news conference Saturday. “My policy is clear. We will continue to fight until we have achieved all the objectives of the war, first and foremost the annihilation of Hamas and the release of all the hostages.”

More than 120 hostages remain in Gaza, after militants seized more than 240 in the Oct. 7 assault that also killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians.

Netanyahu is also at odds with the Biden administration over who should run Gaza after the war. He has rejected the U.S.-backed idea that a unified Palestinian government should run both Gaza and parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank as a precursor to eventual statehood. Instead, he has insisted on open-ended Israeli security control in Gaza, without saying what would come next.

They already took out Al-Arouri he was an important and charismatic leader !


Israel kills senior Hamas leader in drone strike near Beirut in Lebanon

Israel reportedly killed a senior Hamas leader in a drone strike near Beirut. According to Lebanese media, it would be Saleh al-Arouri.

He was seen as Hamas' second in command and also the leader of the Al-Qassam brigades in the West Bank. For example, he is said to be involved in the kidnapping of three Israeli boys in 2014. He is also said to have maintained close ties with both Hezbollah and Iran.

Arouri is said to be the highest-ranking Hamas person that Israel has managed to kill since October 7. Hamas has now announced al-Arouri's death, calling it "a treacherous Zionist attack."

Israel reportedly used a drone to attack an office of the movement in the southern suburb of Dahiyeh. That neighborhood is a stronghold of the Shiite terrorist movement Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas in the fight with Israel. Two other high-ranking members were also reported to have been killed.

There has been no response from Jerusalem to the drone attack yet. The Israeli government previously announced that all Hamas leaders are living 'on borrowed time'.

Lebanon's Prime Minister Mikati condemned the attack as a "new Israeli crime" in a statement. He speaks of an attempt to lure his country into a "new period of confrontation" with Israel. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 and occupied part of the neighboring country until 2000. In 2006, the Israeli army crossed the border again, then in a war with Hezbollah. Israel and Hezbollah have since regularly bombarded each other in the border area. Since the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas, the shelling has increased.

Following the news of Al Arouri's death, people in Ramallah took to the streets in protest. A general strike has been declared in the city for Wednesday, Al Jazeera reports.

IRAN UPDATE, JANUARY 4, 2024
Jan 4, 2024 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, January 4, 2024

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, Kathryn Tyson, Riley Bailey, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Iranian-backed actors in Iraq have intensified their effort to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reported that Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip “are completing the current mission” as part of their transition to a third phase of operations there.
3. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip.
4. Israel moved the evacuation corridor running north-to-south from Salah al Din Road to the coastal road in the Gaza Strip.
5. Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
6. Israeli forces have degraded the command-and-control capacity of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade, according to the Israel Defense Forces.
7. Hamas’ naval special operations forces have reinforced Palestinian fighters defending Khan Younis via tunnel systems.
8. The al Quds Brigades fired rockets at Ashkelon from the northern Gaza Strip.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 10 times across the West Bank. Hamas called for continued and intensifying anti-Israel demonstrations in the West Bank in response to Israel killing senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri.
10. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
11. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted two drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria.
12. US NAVCENT Commander Vice Admiral Brad Cooper stated that the Houthis tried to conduct an unmanned surface vessel attack in the Red Sea, marking the first instance of them doing so since the Israel-Hamas war began.
13. The Afghan branch of the Islamic State—named Islamic State Khorasan Province—claimed responsibility for the recent terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran. CTP-ISW previously assessed in August 2023 that ISKP terrorist attacks inside Iran will likely exacerbate tensions between Iran and the Afghan Taliban.
14. The New York Times reported that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered his military commanders to exercise “strategic patience” vis-a-vis the United States on an unspecified date, citing unspecified sources familiar with internal regime discussions.
15.US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated that Russia has already launched ballistic missiles acquired from North Korea at targets in Ukraine and continues efforts to acquire similar missiles from Iran.

Iranian-backed actors in Iraq have intensified their effort to expel US forces from Iraq. CTP-ISW has assessed that Iranian-backed actors are using almost daily militant attacks and legal and political pressure to force US troops to leave. These Iranian-backed actors have disguised the reason for their attacks, framing them as responses to the Israel-Hamas war. These attacks trigger US self-defense strikes, to which the United States has a legitimate right to protect its servicemembers. The Iranian-backed Iraqi actors exploit these strikes, framing them as violations of Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity and thereby pressuring the Iraqi federal government to pursue the removal of US forces.

Iranian-backed actors in Iraq have accelerated these efforts in response to the United States conducting a self-defense strike on January 4, killing a senior official in Iranian-backed militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN).[1] The United States reported that the HHN official, whose name was Mushtaq Jawad al Jawari, was “actively involved in planning and carrying out attacks on US personnel.”[2] The Washington Institute for Near East Policy similarly reported that Jawari was also responsible for distributing Iranian-supplied advanced conventional weapons to client militias in Iraq and Syria.[3] Jawari was formally the commander of the Popular Mobilization Force’s (PMF) 12th Brigade and the deputy commander of the PMF Baghdad Operations Command.[4] HHN controls the 12th Brigade and has long participated in the Iranian-led attack campaign to expel US forces from Iraq. HHN—through the 12th Brigade—also advocated for sectarian cleansing as part of its counter-ISIS operations in Tarmiyah, referencing Kataib Hezbollah’s (KH) sectarian cleansing of Jurf al Saqr in 2014 as a model of success.[5]

Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting this most recent US self-defense strike in Baghdad to add further momentum to their effort to remove US troops. The Parliamentary Security and Defense committee, which is controlled by the Iranian-backed Badr Organization, called for an emergency parliamentary session to discuss repercussions for the strike and how to preserve Iraqi security and sovereignty.[6] The committee previously presented a draft resolution to expel US forces from Iraq to the Iraqi Parliament and its speaker, Mohsen al Mandalawi, on December 6.[7] Mandalawi has condemned the strike and said that the Iraqi federal government must act immediately to remove US forces, indicating his openness to supporting a parliamentary effort to this end.[8] Mandalawi replaced former Parliament Speaker Mohammad al Halbousi on November 15, after the Iraqi Federal Court removed Halbousi from his position.[9] Halbousi blocked a parliamentary motion to expel the US ambassador to Iraq immediately prior to his removal, suggesting that he was removed at least partly for that reason.[10]

The Mohammad Shia al Sudani administration has similarly begun criticizing the United States and indicating support for the removal of US troops, likely in response to pressure from Iranian-backed actors. The United States currently operates in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi federal government. Sudani announced on December 28 that his administration would begin steps to remove US forces.[11] Sudani’s military spokesperson responded to the latest US self-defense strike by describing it as being “akin to terrorist activities.”[12] The military spokesperson added that the strike was outside the mandate of the International Coalition, which is deployed to Iraq for counterterrorism operations.[13]

An Iraqi decision to expel US forces would very likely create space for ISIS to rapidly resurge in Syria within 12 to 24 months and then threaten Iraq. The US military mission in these countries is meant to enable the enduring defeat of ISIS and through cooperation with local partners.[14] The US support to its counter-ISIS partners in Iraq and Syria is instrumental to defeating ISIS.[15] US forces and military infrastructure in Iraq provide the logistical support that enables the presence of US forces in Syria. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would necessitate a withdrawal from Syria, where ISIS is reconstituting itself in territory held by the Syrian regime.[16] CTP-ISW continues to assess that the United States and its partner in Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS and that the US withdrawal from Syria will very likely cause a rapid ISIS resurgence in Syria within 12 to 24 months.[17] A resurgent ISIS would then be able to threaten Iraq again. The Iraqi Security Forces still face significance deficiencies in fire support, intelligence, and logistics that will impede their ability to defeat ISIS alone.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reported that Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip “are completing the current mission” as part of their transition to a third phase of operations there.[19] Gallant said Israeli forces “are reorganizing with the intention of carrying out raids and airstrikes soon.”[20] This remark comes shortly after the IDF announced the withdrawal of five brigades from the Gaza Strip on December 31. The third phase of operations in the northern Gaza Strip will reportedly include the end of major combat operations, a “reduction in forces” in the strip, the release of reservists, a “transition to targeted raids,” and the establishment of a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.[21] CTP-ISW warned on January 2 that the third phase of operations as described will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily.[22] Israeli forces have degraded several Hamas units in the northern Gaza Strip. But Hamas’ military forces are neither defeated nor destroyed at this time.[23] Palestinian militias continued to operate in the northern Gaza Strip and have targeted Israeli forces in areas where Israel has degraded the local Hamas units.[24] Israel likely faces continued attacks in these areas in part because it is fighting several Palestinian militias, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the al Aqsa Martyrs‘ Brigades, rather than just Hamas.

The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip on January 4.[25] The group fired mortars and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) at Israeli armor and dismounted infantry in Tuffah, where Palestinian fighters have claimed almost daily attacks on Israeli forces since late December 2023.[26] The al Qassem Brigades published footage on January 4 of its fighters firing anti-personnel devices, RPGs, and small arms at Israeli forces in Gaza City.[27] The al Qassem Brigades also targeted Israeli forces in Mughraqa, south of Gaza City, where Israeli forces are continuing clearing operations.[28] The IDF reported on January 4 that it destroyed an underground military compound west of Mughraqa in the past week.

Israel moved the evacuation corridor running north-to-south from Salah al Din Road to the coastal road in the Gaza Strip on January 4.[30] The Salah al Din Road was the primary north-south humanitarian corridor that Israel designated early in the war.[31] Israel designating a new corridor comes as the IDF continues clearing operations in the central and southern parts of the Gaza Strip.

The IDF reported on January 4 that it killed PIJ’s “chief of operational staff,” who operated in the northern Gaza Strip.[32] The IDF stated that the PIJ official, Mamdouh Lulu, worked as an assistant to and was a close associate of PIJ leaders in the northern Gaza Strip. Lulu communicated with PIJ senior officials outside of the Gaza Strip and coordinated attacks on Israel before and during the Israel-Hamas war, according to the IDF. Hamas-affiliated media reported on January 3 that three civilians died in an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, including Lulu.

Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip. The IDF stated that the PIJ official, Mamdouh Lulu, worked as an assistant to and was a close associate of PIJ leaders in the northern Gaza Strip. Lulu communicated with PIJ senior officials outside of the Gaza Strip and coordinated attacks on Israel before and during the Israel-Hamas war, according to the IDF. Hamas-affiliated media reported on January 3 that three civilians died in an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, including Lulu.

Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip. A Palestinian journalist reported on January 4 that Israeli forces have surrounded Maghazi “from all directions.”[34] Another journalist reported on January 4 that Israeli bulldozers constructed sand berms in Maghazi.[35] The al Qassem Brigades detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an Israeli tank west of Maghazi.[36] The group also targeted an Israeli tank with an anti-tank RPG there.[37]

Israeli forces continued operating in Bureij, north of Maghazi on January 4. The IDF located long-range rocket launchers at the center of the city.[38] The al Qassem Brigades detonated a house-borne improvised explosive device (IED) north of Nuseirat, which neighbors Bureij.[39] The group also mortared Israeli forces and vehicles in Bureij.[40] Israeli forces face other Palestinian militias in the central Gaza Strip. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of PIJ—mortared Israeli dismounted infantry and vehicles in Bureij.[41] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Bureij and Maghazi.[42] The groups’ fighters detonated an explosive device as Israeli vehicles advanced southeast of Bureij.[43] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—fired an RPG at an Israeli vehicle as it advanced in Bureij.[44]

Israeli forces conducted airstrikes targeting buildings containing anti-tank elements from the Hamas Deir al Balah Battalion, according to an IDF report on January 4.

Israeli forces have degraded the command-and-control (C2) capacity of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade, according to the IDF. The IDF said that it has significantly damaged specifically the C2 of the brigade’s northern and eastern battalions.[46] This statement is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that these battalions are under active and intense IDF pressure.[47] The IDF reported on January 4 its fighters killed two company commanders from the northern and eastern battalions of the Khan Younis Brigade.[48] The IDF 98th Division has similarly degraded Hamas’ combat effectiveness in Khan Younis by destroying Hamas military sites and an underground tunnel system hundreds of meters long.[49] Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Hamas weapons depots in Khan Younis as well.[50] The IDF 4th Brigade commander said his forces are fighting on the southern flank of the Hamas Khan Younis Brigade, demonstrating how Israeli forces have surrounded Khan Younis to fight Hamas there.

Hamas’ naval special operations forces (SOF) have reinforced Palestinian fighters defending Khan Younis via tunnel systems. Five naval SOF fighters surrendered themselves to the IDF 55th Brigade Combat Team in Khan Younis, according to the IDF on January 4.[51] This incident suggests that Hamas continues to draw fighters from less active areas to support battalions under active and intense pressure from IDF clearing operations.

At least four Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances in central Khan Younis City on January 4. The al Qassem Brigades fired anti-tank rockets and mortars at Israeli armor and dismounted infantry in four separate attacks around Khan Younis.[52] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fired mortars and RPGs at Israeli forces in separate attacks as well.[53] The National Resistance Brigades targeted Israeli forces with RPGs, and the al Quds Brigades clashed with Israeli infantry in central Khan Younis City.[54] Israeli fighter jets struck Hamas fighters firing anti-tank missiles and planting IEDs near Israeli forces in Khan Younis.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant discussed on January 4 continuing IDF operations against Hamas and other Palestinian militias in the southern Gaza Strip. Gallant said during a visit to the central Gaza Strip border that Israeli operations above and below ground are getting stronger in the southern Gaza Strip.[56] He also said that Palestinian militants’ “countdown” for Israeli forces leaving the Gaza Strip is wrong.

The al Quds Brigades fired rockets at Ashkelon from the northern Gaza Strip on January 4.[58] IDF Home Front Command lifted civilian educational and workplace restrictions in Ashkelon on December 18 after a situational assessment regarding the threat of Palestinian indirect fire from the Gaza Strip.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 10 times across the West Bank on January 4.[60] The al Quds Brigades and al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades engaged Israeli forces with small arms and detonated IEDs, including a ”car bomb,” targeting these forces in Tulkarm.[61] The IDF said that it concluded a 40-hour counterterrorism operation in the Noor Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm on January 4.[62] The IDF said that it destroyed militia infrastructure, detained hundreds of suspects for questioning, and seized weapons during the operation.[63] The IDF also conducted an airstrike on fighters who attacked IDF forces in the camp.[64] The Jenin Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades separately attacked Israeli forces in Sir, south of Jenin.[65] Palestinian fighters engaged Israeli forces in small arms clashes in Sanur, south of Jenin as well.

Hamas called for continued and intensifying anti-Israel demonstrations in the West Bank in response to Israel killing senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri.[67] Hamas called for an escalation in demonstrations and other “solidarity activities” in the West Bank in the upcoming days. Arouri was the deputy chairman of Hamas‘ political bureau and directed Hamas military operations in the West Bank.[68] Arouri also helped found Hamas’ military wing in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.[70] LH claimed that it conducted seven attacks targeting Israeli military positions in northern Israel on January 4.[71] This rate of attacks marks a decrease from the 13 attacks that LH claimed on January 3.[72] LH launched the uptick in attacks on January 3 likely in response to Israel killing senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri in Beirut on January 2. LH acknowledged that nine of its fighters died fighting Israel on January 3.[73] Unspecified fighters separately launched rockets targeting Goren in northern Israel on January 3.The Economist reported on January 4 that LH withdrew an unspecified number of fighters two to three kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border.[75]

The Economist reported on January 4 that LH withdrew an unspecified number of fighters two to three kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. The Economist suggested these withdrawals signal that LH seeks to avoid further escalation with Israel.[76] Israeli media previously reported that LH began withdrawing its “Radwan” special forces away from the border on December 24 due to high casualties inflicted by Israeli airstrikes.[77] The Economist reporting did not specify which LH units or how many LH fighters have withdrawn from the border, although it is possible that the Economist was referring to the same event that Israeli media covered. LH’s continued attacks into northern Israel on January 4 demonstrates that LH retains military forces along the border.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told a US envoy on January 4 that Israel needs a “new security reality” on its northern border so that its citizens can return to their homes in northern Israel.[78] Gallant stated that Israel prefers a diplomatic solution but that there is a "short window of time” to find one.[79] LH Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem stated on December 31 that LH will not allow displaced Israeli civilians to return to their homes in northern Israel until Israel halts its military operations in the Gaza Strip.[80] Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed concern about the threat that LH poses to Israel in recent weeks. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi met with IDF commanders and discussed Israel’s military readiness during a trip to northern Israel on January 3.

Hamas leaders mourned the death of former Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Saleh Arouri during his funeral in Beirut on January 4. Hamas Political Bureau members, including Ismail Haniyeh, Mahmoud Mardawi, and Hossam Badran, eulogized Arouri via recorded video at the ceremony.[82] Hamas West Bank deputy leader Zaher Jabareen spoke in-person at the ceremony.[83] The leaders' emphasized that Arouri’s killing would not weaken the resolve of Palestinian militias against Israel and that the war remains completely active. Several LH officials and Palestinian militia supporters attended the funeral in Beirut.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted two drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria on January 4. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted US forces at Rukban and al Omar oil field.

US NAVCENT Commander Vice Admiral Brad Cooper stated that the Houthis tried to conduct an unmanned surface vessel (USV) attack in the Red Sea on January 4, marking the first instance of them doing so since the Israel-Hamas war began.[86] The Houthi USV traveled around 15 miles before detonating within a “couple of miles” of US Navy and commercial vessels.[87] Cooper stated that the USV attack did not cause any casualties or damage to nearby ships. The attempted attack follows a statement from the United States and 12 of its international partners on January 3 warning that the Houthis will face unspecified consequences if the group continues to attack shipping in the Red Sea.[88] The Houthis conducted the USV attack likely to demonstrate their capabilities in response to the statement from the United States and its partners. The IRGC Quds Force has furnished the Houthi movement with explosive-laden drone boats in recent years, and the Houthis conducted their first waterborne IED attack on a Saudi naval frigate in January 2017.[89]

Cooper additionally discussed Operation Prosperity Guardian on January 4, stating that the United States has intercepted 19 Houthi drones and missiles and that around 1,500 vessels have transited the Red Sea since the formation of the maritime coalition on December 18.[90] The United States established Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure freedom of navigation and bolster regional security.

Houthi Supreme Leader Abdul Malik al Houthi and senior Houthi official Mohammad Abdul Salam released statements calling for mass demonstrations across Yemen in support of Palestinians on January 5.[92] Both officials warned that the Houthi movement will “respond and punish” the United States for the killing 10 Houthi members on December 31. The United States killed the Houthi militants after they fired at US helicopters trying to aid a commercial vessel under Houthi attack in the southern Red Sea.

The Afghan branch of the Islamic State—named Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—claimed responsibility for the recent terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran, on January 4.[94] Two ISKP members detonated suicide vests during a ceremony commemorating the anniversary of the United States killing Qassem Soleimani, killing at least 84 civilians and wounding dozens of others, on January 3.[95] This attack marks the third that ISKP has claimed inside Iran in recent years. ISKP previously conducted shooting attacks at a prominent Shia shrine in Shiraz in October 2022 and again in August 2023.[96] ISKP attacks beyond Afghanistan raise the group's profile among Salafi-jihadi organizations, helping ISKP attract financing and recruits.[97] ISKP attacks in Iran also support the group's efforts to undermine the Taliban government by exacerbating divisions within the Taliban movement, which remains divided between those who want to prioritize addressing domestic issues in Afghanistan versus those who wish to continue supporting jihadist movements internationally.[98]

CTP-ISW previously assessed in August 2023 that ISKP terrorist attacks inside Iran will likely exacerbate tensions between Iran and the Afghan Taliban.[99] Tehran has repeatedly pushed the Taliban to adopt stronger counterterrorism measures since the Taliban came to power in August 2021.[100] Iran and the Taliban have previously engaged in counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation vis-a-vis the ISKP, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[101] These attacks compound with additional Iranian grievances toward the Taliban, moreover. Tensions have risen between Iran and the Taliban over water resources in recent months.[102] Iranian state media claimed on January 4 that the enemies of Iran are trying to create tensions between Iran and other Muslim countries, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, where ISKP operates.[103]

Iranian officials discussed the ISKP attack with regional states on January 4. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated that terrorists will not be able undermine Iran’s security and unity with attacks during a phone call Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.[104] Raisi also accused Israel of trying to spread insecurity to Iran due to its failures in the Gaza Strip in a phone call with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamid al Thani.[105] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian emphasized that fighting terrorism is the main priority of Iran and Pakistan during a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart, Jalil Abbas Jilani.

The New York Times reported on January 3 that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered his military commanders to exercise “strategic patience” vis-a-vis the United States on an unspecified date, citing unspecified sources familiar with internal regime discussions. Khamenei reportedly stressed that Iranian military commanders should avoid any actions that would risk direct military confrontation with the United States. It is unclear when Khamanei issued this directive to his military officials, though the reporting is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran seeks to avoid a direct military confrontation against the United States and Israel.[108] CTP-ISW has recently assessed, however, that Iran and the Axis of Resistance are trying to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to fulfill Iran’s longstanding strategic objective of forcing a US military withdrawal from Iraq and Syria.[109] Iran will likely pursue this objective in a manner that seeks to avoid a direction confrontation with the United States, namely through proxy and partner militia attacks, exploiting legal mechanisms in host countries, and other coercive measures, consistent with Khamenei’s reported directive.

NOTE: A version of the following text appears in the ISW January 4, 2024, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on January 4 that Russia has already launched ballistic missiles acquired from North Korea at targets in Ukraine and continues efforts to acquire similar missiles from Iran. Kirby stated that North Korea provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and an unspecified number of ballistic missiles and that Russian forces launched at least one of the North Korean missiles into Ukraine on December 30, 2023.[111] Kirby also stated that Russian officials continue efforts to buy ballistic missiles from Iran. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported earlier on January 4 that unspecified US officials stated that Russia could receive Iranian short-range ballistic missiles as early as spring 2024 but that the officials do not believe that Russia and Iran have yet completed a deal.[112]

Russia may be intensifying efforts to source ballistic missiles from abroad because these missiles appear to be more effective at striking targets in Ukraine in some circumstances. Russian forces routinely use short-range ballistic missiles to strike Ukrainian cities closer to the frontline, and these missiles appear to be more effective at penetrating or avoiding Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian air defenses have intercepted 149 of a reported 166 Russian cruise missiles in intensified attacks since December 29, 2023, but have only intercepted a handful of the ballistic missiles that Russia has launched at Ukraine in the same period, for example.[113] Russian forces have repurposed S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles for conducting strikes against surface targets in Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that Ukrainian air defenses struggle to intercept these unorthodox missile attacks using their own S-300 and S-400 systems.[114] Ukrainian forces have also appeared to be less successful in intercepting Iskander ballistic missiles during recent strikes, although Ukrainian forces did intercept an Iskander-M missile during a less intense series of Russian missile and drone strikes on December 30.[115] Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted all Iskander-M or S-300/S-400 missiles that Russian forces launched at Kyiv on December 12.[116] Ukrainian forces reportedly also intercepted all 10 Kinzhal missiles that Russian forces launched at Ukraine on January 2 with Western-provided Patriot systems.[117] The effectiveness of Russian ballistic missiles thus appears to depend in part on the configuration of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella in the target area and the strike package of which the missiles are part.

The relative success that Russian forces have had in striking targets in Ukraine with ballistic missiles in combination with cruise missiles and drones may be prompting an intensification of Russian efforts to source ballistic missiles from abroad. Russia can reportedly produce roughly 42 Iskander missiles and four Kinzhal missiles per month, although it is unclear how many S-300/S-400 missiles Russia can produce.[118] Russia‘s defense industrial base (DIB) likely cannot produce ballistic missiles at the scale required for a persistent strike campaign in Ukraine that relies on regularly expending a large volume of ballistic missiles, and Russia likely has to source ballistic missiles from abroad if it wishes to maintain large-scale missiles strikes against Ukraine.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-4-2024

IF, earlier this Month, attacks had been needed against Iran or whomever, and had to be coordinated through the US Sec. of Defense, it might not have happened as quickly as it could have, because Lloyd Austin, the Sec. of Defense, was in the Hospital, and at the time, the Biden Administration did not know that, and Lloyd Austin's next in Command was on Vacation in Puerto Rico.

US and UK carry out strikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/politics/us-strikes-houthis-yemen/index.html

Houthis vow to hit back after US and UK attack

The Houthis will hit back hard after the joint attack by the United States and the United Kingdom on their installations in Yemen. This is what several leaders of the movement that controls a large part of the country say. No retaliation has been reported so far.

The response to the bombings by the US and UK and four allies, including the Netherlands, will be the Houthis' largest operation yet, leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi promised. He calls on Yemenis to take to the streets on Friday and demonstrate against "American aggression".

“America and Britain will have to prepare to pay a high price and bear all the terrible consequences of this blatant aggression,” Hussein al-Ezzi, deputy foreign minister for the Houthis, also responded via X. The

Houthis had already threatened before the operation to take revenge by attacking American bases in Iraq, among other places. Although air raid sirens sounded around the US embassy in Baghdad, no attack was reported. Nor have any American ships in the Red Sea been hit by missiles or drones, American media report on the authority of the Pentagon.

Biden: Retaliation if 'outrageous' Houthis continue violence in Red Sea

US President Biden warns that the Houthis in Yemen will be attacked a second time if they continue their "outrageous behavior". The rebels attack ships in the Red Sea in a show of support for Hamas and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The United States and the United Kingdom attacked dozens of Houthi targets during the night from Thursday to Friday. According to Biden, this was a success. “I don't think there were any civilian casualties and that's another reason why it was a success,” he further said.

The Iran-backed Houthis argue that US and British interests are now "legitimate targets". Due to the violence in the Red Sea and the attacks on the Houthis, there are fears of an escalation of the situation in the Middle East.

I found this explanation of what's going on in the Red Sea to be fascinating...

EU member states on Tuesday added Hamas political leader Yahya Sinwar to their ‘terrorist’ sanctions list, making him subject to the freezing of funds and financial assets and prohibiting EU operators from making economic resources available to him. The move comes in response to the deadly Hamas-led October 7 attack on Israel.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-...own-in-southern-gaza-as-toll-tops-24-000

NOS News
•
Today, 12:05
Tensions between Iran and Pakistan: an overview of what we know now

Pakistan carried out air strikes on neighboring Iran last night, killing several people . An overview of what we know now.

What happened?
The Pakistani army carried out airstrikes last night on targets of two militant organizations in neighboring Iran. According to Iranian media, several rockets hit a village in Sistan and Balochistan province, which borders Pakistan. Nine people have been killed, Iranian authorities report. Pakistan says drones and missiles, among other things, were used in the attack.

Why these attacks?
The two countries accuse each other of harboring militant movements. According to the Pakistani military, the attacks targeted terrorist hideouts on Iranian territory. The action cannot be seen separately from the attacks that Iran carried out on Pakistani territory on Tuesday. Then the Iranian regime said it had carried out attacks on a militia in Pakistan.

This morning, Pakistan said in a statement that it has informed Iran several times about the presence of terrorists. “Pakistan has provided concrete evidence of the presence and activities of these terrorists,” the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said. The Pakistanis say that Iran, however, has done nothing about it. By the way, similar accusations are also being heard from Iran.

“The government and the military were under enormous pressure,” Abdullah Khan, an analyst at the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, told the AP. "The Iranian attacks were celebrated in the media and the image among Pakistanis of a strong army is no longer what it was. There had to be a response."

The attack was named 'Marg bar Sarmachar' by Pakistan. 'Marg bar' means 'death to' in Farsi and 'sarmachar' means 'guerrilla' in Baloch.

Has this conflict been going on for some time?
Insurgents have been active in the border region between Pakistan and Iran for more than twenty years. However, these are different groups. Iran carried out attacks on Tuesday on two bases of the Sunni separatist group Jaish al-Adl, a group that emerged from the former radical Islamist group Jundallah.

And on the other side there is the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front, which is where the Pakistani attacks have been focused today. That group would operate from Iran.

NOS
The group has no religious background, but fights for the secession of the Balochistan region. The liberation army is seen as a terrorist organization by Pakistan, the US and the EU, among others.

“Pakistan will pay a price for this,” the group warned today. “We will not be silent.”

What kind of area is the border region?
Iran and Pakistan share a border of about 900 kilometers. It is a largely lawless and deprived area. Smugglers and militants can cross the border without major problems. It is also an area that plays a major role in the global opium trade from Afghanistan.

What are the reactions?
The Pakistanis said in a statement that it "fully endorses" Iran's territorial integrity and sovereignty and that the sole purpose of this attack was to safeguard Pakistan's national security and interests.

Angry sounds are heard from the Iranian capital Tehran. Pakistan's attack is condemned by the Iranians and Iran also demands immediate clarification from Pakistan. China, which has good ties with Iran and Pakistan, has asked both countries to maintain calm. Turkey spoke with Iran and Pakistan this morning, saying the parties are not looking for escalation in an area already characterized by unrest.

The Pakistani army says it is on "very high alert" and warns that any new action from the Iranian side will be met. Both countries are also struggling with their own internal problems: Iran was recently hit by an attack that resulted in about a hundred deaths. There are elections next month in Pakistan and there are also economic problems.

At the same time, there is no shortage of tension: Iran is starting a major planned military exercise today.

Well known Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir is the only journalist in the world to have interviewed Osama bin Laden after the September 11 attacks.[9] During his career, Mir has also interviewed various world leaders.

In 2009, Mir compared the Hamas and the Taliban. According to Mir, "Hamas probably have more suicide bombers than Taliban, but they are different from each other". In an article titled "Hamas builds while Taliban bomb schools", Mir wrote that both Hamas and Taliban were born in refugee camps, and both were initially encouraged by the West. Mir claimed that some of the Hamas leaders were educated in Pakistani universities, and that many of them were part of the Afghan Jihad against the former Soviet Union, and close to Abdullah Azzam who was also a mentor of Osama bin Laden in early 1980s.[86]

Brave young woman

IRAN UPDATE, JANUARY 21, 2024
Jan 21, 2024 - ISW Press

Download the PDF









Iran Update, January 21, 2024

Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

CTP-ISW published abbreviated updates on January 20 and 21, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, January 22, 2024.

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel–Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

• The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are pushing a new, multi-part plan to end the Israel–Hamas war. The US-Egyptian-Qatari plan will enable Hamas to reconstitute and present a continued threat to Israel. This proposed plan, as reported, does not include any provisions to disarm Hamas.
• Israeli forces raided an underground tunnel in a civilian area of Khan Younis that previously held Israeli hostages.
• Palestinian militias conducted five indirect fire attacks targeting southern Israel on January 21.
• Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in four locations across the West Bank on January 20 after CTP-ISW's data cutoff.
• Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel targeting Israeli towns and military facilities on January 21.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria on January 21.

The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are pushing a new, multi-part plan to end the Israel–Hamas war.[1] The plan contains three parts that will occur over a 90-day period, according to the Wall Street Journal. Hamas would first release all civilian hostages in return for Israel releasing “hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners. Israel would also withdraw its forces from population centers in the Gaza Strip, allow freedom of movement throughout the Gaza Strip, end “surveillance,” and double the flow of humanitarian aid into the strip. Hamas would release all female Israeli soldiers and return the bodies of dead hostages to Israel in the second stage. Finally, Hamas would release the remaining Israeli soldiers and fighting-age males, while Israeli forces withdraw from the strip completely. An Egyptian official told the Wall Street Journal that the parties to the agreement are considering “safety guarantees” for Hamas’ political leadership and the formation of an “international fund” for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. After the 90-day period, the plan would lead to a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the relaunching of a process to form a Palestinian state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his rejection of a “ceasefire” in exchange for the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas in a video published on January 21.[2] Netanyahu was not explicitly responding to the US-Egyptian-Qatari plan. Netanyahu noted that an end to the war that leaves Hamas intact means that the next October 7 attack is “a matter of time.” Netanyahu laid out the Israeli war aims—"deradicalization” of Palestinian society, demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, and the destruction of Hamas—in the Wall Street Journal on December 25, 2023.[3]

The US-Egyptian-Qatari plan will enable Hamas to reconstitute and present a continued threat to Israel. This proposed plan, as reported, does not include any provisions to disarm Hamas. Hamas will be able to rebuild its governance capabilities in the Gaza Strip, which allowed it to generate funds for its operations prior to its October 7 attack.[4] Hamas would essentially have access to the same resource pools that it had prior to the war. Hamas fighters are already reinfiltrating areas that Israeli forces cleared in the northern Gaza Strip, which will facilitate Hamas’ reconstitution.[5] This reinfiltration process would accelerate under the implementation of the first phase of the proposed plan, in which Israeli forces would leave Gazan cities and towns.[6] “Safety guarantees” for Hamas’ political leadership would protect some of the planners of the October 7 attacks, possibly including Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar is Hamas’ political leader in the Gaza Strip. He closely collaborates with Hamas military leaders Mohammad Deif and Marwan Issa.[7] Sinwar also founded and led Hamas’ internal security apparatus and is responsible for the deaths of many Palestinians and Israelis in that role.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces raided an underground tunnel in a civilian area of Khan Younis that previously held Israeli hostages.[9] Palestinian fighters moved the hostages prior to the tunnel’s capture by Israeli forces. The IDF said that the tunnel entrance was inside the home of a Hamas fighter. Palestinian fighters placed boobytraps inside the tunnel and posted guards outside the tunnel. The IDF killed the guards to make entry into the tunnel system. Israeli forces discovered five prison cells where Hamas kept the hostages. Israeli forces also captured Hamas intelligence documents and weapons inside the tunnel. The IDF said that there were 20 hostages held in the tunnel system at a time, according to unspecified testimonies. The IDF said that Hamas held some of the hostages who it released in the November 2023 exchange deal inside this tunnel.[10] The IDF published children’s drawings as proof the hostages had been held there. Israeli media reported that the drawings belonged to five-year-old Emilia Aloni, one of the hostages freed in November 2023.[11] The IDF destroyed the tunnel after IDF forces searched it.

The Yiftach Brigade (assigned to the 99th Division) conducted clearing operations in Maghazi in the central Gaza Strip. Yiftach Brigade armor and engineers destroyed a Hamas weapons factory and a rocket launch site in Maghazi camp.[13] Palestinian fighters fired rocket-propelled grenades at the brigade during the operation. The IDF said that the brigade killed over 30 Palestinian fighters during the engagement.[14] The military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the al Quds Brigades, conducted indirect fire attacks on Israeli armor and infantry advancing north from Bureij, roughly a kilometer north of Maghazi.[15] Al Quds Brigades “snipers” fired at Israeli forces northeast of Bureij camp.

Palestinian militias claimed attacks targeting Israeli forces in Jabalia on January 21. The al Qassem Brigades—the military wing of Hamas—fired anti-tank munitions at Israeli armor in Jabalia City. The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—and the National Resistance Brigades—the military wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed that it clashed with Israeli dismounted infantry east of Jabalia refugee camp.[17] The National Resistance Brigades also fired thermobaric rockets at Israeli infantry.

Palestinian militias conducted five indirect fire attacks targeting southern Israel on January 21. This is the largest number of indirect fire attacks into Israel since January 7.[19] Three Palestinian militias mortared Israeli armor at the Sufa military site near the southern tip of the Gaza Strip.[20] The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and the military wing of the Palestinian Mujahideen Movement, the Mujahideen Brigades, launched rockets at Nahal Oz in a combined operation on January 21.[21] The al Quds Brigades launched rockets at Kissufim.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there
• Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in four locations across the West Bank on January 20 after CTP-ISW's data cutoff.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel targeting Israeli towns and military facilities on January 21.[24] LH said it fired rockets at a civilian area in retaliation for an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon that unsuccessfully targeted a senior LH field commander.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting an unspecified Israeli military site in the Golan Heights.[26] The group said that the attack occurred on January 20.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria on January 21.[27] The group claimed a one-way drone attack targeting US forces stationed at al Shaddadi in Hasakah Province and US forces stationed at al Omar oil field in Deir ez Zor Province.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-21-2024

Anyone heard something from @MeyerLansky? I hope he is alright since many Israeli reservists were killed during the past few days....

Last time he checked in was January 5. I think he was stationed at the Libanon border not Gaza which is becoming hell on earth.

Interesting Analysis from 2021 !

How Afghanistan Influences Hamas, PIJ, and Iran in their Approach to Israel
by Kobi Michael, Yoel Guzansky
Aug 24, 2021

Brief Analysis
As the Taliban takeover boosts Iranian proxies’ morale, Israel and the United States should develop a coordinated strategy against these groups to enhance Israeli security and restore confidence in American commitments to regional partners.

Although it was predictable, the Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan nonetheless shocked the West. This development and its outcomes are liable to tar the United States with the brush of defeat and paint it as a failure in its role as leader of the free world and the West. Moreover, the United States has long been viewed as the most bitter foe of fundamentalist Islamist movements and the most significant obstacle to the latter realizing its visions. Therefore, necessary and justified as it may have been, the disturbing images of the U.S. withdrawal—though no withdrawal ever looks good—are proving a tailwind in jihadists’ sails.

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org...hamas-pij-and-iran-their-approach-israel