War! The Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

In a scenario straight out of a Tom Clancy novel, Vladimir Putin has initiated an invasion of Ukraine under the pretext of it always being a part of Mother Russia. However, insufficient infantry occupation forces, lack of leadership, supplies and a will to fight against the Ukrainians, has left the invasion in danger of stalling out. This could result in Putin turning towards tactical nuclear weapons as an option, especially in light of the activation of the multi national NATO Response Force and the increase in defense support to the Ukraine from around the world

To date, the U.S. has activated 14,000 troops for Europe. Half of those have mobilized unilaterally, including 4,700 82nd Airborne Division soldiers to Poland, 1,000 2nd Cavalry Regiment soldiers to Romania and 300 XVIII Airborne Corps soldiers to Germany.

Earlier this week, another 1,000 troops started moving out, including aircrew, maintainers and staff to support six Air Force F-35 strike fighters, 32 Army AH-64 Apache helicopters and 800 members of an infantry task force battalion to the Baltic states, Poland and Romania.


With the activation of the NATO Response Force, the U.S. expects to start attaching more troops to that organization, as part of a deterrence effort should Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threaten NATO territory.

“It’s a menu of options that are going to be available to national leaders,” Kirby said. “And again, what I can promise you is, as we get solidity on this, and more specificity, we’ll detail that.”
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...nse-force-activation-amid-russia-attack/

Putin puts forces on nuke alert, Zelenskyy agrees to meet in Belarus
"President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces put on high alert amid tensions with the West over his invasion of Ukraine.
Putin asserted at a meeting with his top officials on Sunday that leading NATO powers had made “aggressive statements” along with the West imposing hard-hitting financial sanctions against Russia, including the president himself.
The alert means Putin has ordered Russia’s nuclear weapons prepared for increased readiness to launch. He told the Russian defense minister and the chief of the military’s General Staff to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.
Meanwhile, the office of Ukraine’s president has confirmed that a delegation will meet with Russian officials as Moscow’s troops draw closer to Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy office said Sunday on the Telegram messaging app that the two sides would meet at an unspecified location on the Belarusian border and did not give a precise time for the meeting.
The meeting news came shortly after President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers."
https://www.militarytimes.com/flash...er-ukraines-2nd-largest-city-of-kharkiv/

Ukraine Slows Russian Advance Under Shadow of Nuclear Threat
KYIV, Ukraine — Outgunned but determined Ukrainian troops slowed Russia’s advance and held onto the capital and other key cities — at least for now. In the face of stiff resistance and devastating sanctions, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear forces put on high alert, threatening to elevate the war to a terrifying new level
Explosions and gunfire that have disrupted life since the invasion began last week appeared to subside around Kyiv overnight, as Ukrainian and Russian delegations met Monday on Ukraine’s border with Belarus. It's unclear what, if anything, those talks would yield.
Terrified Ukrainian families huddled in shelters, basements or corridors, waiting to find out. Exact death tolls are unclear, but the U.N. human rights chief said 102 civilians have been killed and hundreds wounded — warning that figure was likely a vast undercount — and Ukraine’s president said at least 16 children were among the dead. More than 500,000 people have fled the country since the invasion, another U.N. official said Monday — among the millions who have left their homes.
Neighboring Belarus could send troops to help Russia as soon as Monday, according to a senior American intelligence official with direct knowledge of current U.S. intelligence assessments. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
U.S. officials say they believe the invasion has been more difficult, and slower, than the Kremlin envisioned, though that could change as Moscow adapts. The British Defense Ministry said Monday that the bulk of Putin’s forces are about 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of Kyiv, their advance having been slowed by Ukrainian forces.
Western nations ramped up the pressure with a freeze on Russia’s hard currency reserves, threatening to bring Russia’s economy to its knees. Russians withdrew savings and sought to shed rubles for dollars and euros, while Russian businesses scrambled to protect their finances.
In addition to sanctions, the U.S. and Germany announced they will send Stinger missiles to Ukraine among other military supplies. The European Union — founded to ensure peace on the continent after World War II — is supplying lethal aid for the first time, including anti-tank weapons and ammunition. At least one Western country is studying a request from Ukraine to provide fighter jets, a European official said. She spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss information not yet public.
In addition to sanctions, the U.S. and Germany announced they will send Stinger missiles to Ukraine among other military supplies. The European Union — founded to ensure peace on the continent after World War II — is supplying lethal aid for the first time, including anti-tank weapons and ammunition. At least one Western country is studying a request from Ukraine to provide fighter jets, a European official said. She spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss information not yet public.
The Russian military claimed Monday it had taken full control of Ukraine’s airspace after showering its air bases and air defense batteries with air and missile strikes. But a similar claim on the first day of the invasion turned out to be untrue, and U.S. officials said Sunday that Moscow has failed to fully control Ukrainian skies.
In Mariupol, where Ukrainians were trying to fend off attack, a medical team at a city hospital desperately tried to revive a 6-year-old girl in unicorn pajamas who was mortally wounded in Russian shelling.
During the rescue attempt, a doctor in blue medical scrubs, pumping oxygen into the girl, looked directly into the Associated Press video camera capturing the scene.
“Show this to Putin," he said angrily. “The eyes of this child, and crying doctors."
Their resuscitation efforts failed, and the girl lay dead on a gurney, covered by her blood-splattered jacket.
https://www.military.com/daily-news...ance-under-shadow-of-nuclear-threat.html

Chechens Are Fighting on Both Sides of Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

https://themedialine.org/top-storie...oth-sides-of-russian-ukrainian-conflict/

US-RUSSIA nuclear war would kill 34 million people within hours and is increasingly likely.
The simulation, the result of a study at Princeton‘s Science and Global Security programme (SGS), suggests 34 million people would be killed and 57 million injured in the first hours of an all-out nuclear conflagration – not counting those left ill by fallout and other long-term problems.
In the animation, electronic trails of ballistic missiles arc across the screen, before blossoming into a carpet of white discs.
Worldwide destruction would include the nuclear incineration of Europe, which scientists claimed could be brought about by the escalation of a conventional war between Nato and Russia.
SGS claims the video is “based on real force postures, targets and fatality estimates”. The first simulated nuclear blast appears to occur just inside Poland, near Wroclaw and the borders with Germany and the Czech.
They say: In hopes of halting a US-NATO advance, Russia launches a nuclear warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad. NATO retaliate with a single air strike. As the nuclear threshold is crossed, fighting escalates to a tactical nuclear war in Europe. Russia sends 300 nuclear warheads via aircraft and short-range missiles to hit Nato bases and advancing troops. Nato responds with approximately 180 nuclear warheads via aircraft.
After that, hundreds of further strikes are made on both sides against military nuclear forces. In the video, Russia’s red streaks lift away from the ground moments before America’s rain of blue obliterates swathes of the country; then, Moscow’s bombs crash into the US from coast to coast.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...tin-simulation-europe-nato-a9109116.html

Russia-Ukraine news: Ukrainian ambassador accuses Russia of using devastating ‘vacuum bomb’

https://nypost.com/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-news-latest-updates-of-war-in-europe/

The treacherous Ramzan Kadyrov is about as big a snake as you can ask for. He fought against the Russians in the First Chechen War and sided with Russia in the Second Chechen war and became president of Chechnya after his father, who was president before him, was assassinated in 2004, most likely by Russia..
"A Russian daily, Gazeta, reported that according to a poll conducted by the independent Levada Center, only 33 percent of Russians believe that Kadyrov can be trusted, while 35 percent believed that he cannot. Asked whether they thought Kadyrov could normalise the situation in Chechnya and end the bloodshed there, 31 percent said yes and 38 percent said no."

International Criminal Court in The Hague is already investigating "war crimes" in Ukraine.

Chechnya's a prime example of Putin's modus operandi. The Russian troops decimate the population, the Kremlin installs a bootlicking puppet government to suppress whatever's left of the local population and when push comes to shove they will use your traditionally hostile population as cannon fodder. He did this in Chechnya, he's going to do the same to Ukraine and afterwards Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia will follow.

US Intel agencies' top priority: understanding Putin's state of mind.

Also the military interventions in Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014 and Syria in 2015, Syria went very well for him and became a testing ground for Russian weapons and tactics that it can now bring to bear in Ukraine.

I would say study the behavior of Vito Genovese and you will understand Putin, the wealthiest, most powerful gangster in the history of the world.

Hundreds of volunteers from western europe are going to Ukraine, dozens of dutch afghanistan veterans.

Imagine the residents of DC. they'd be giving the Russians food and killing Americans to take their fuel because they'd feel bad. Wake up America!

Russia takes increasing aim at Ukraine urban areas on seventh day of war.
The latest details about Russia’s attack on Ukraine:
“Nobody will forgive. Nobody will forget.”
5:41 a.m. EST March 2
Ukraine’s leader decried Russia’s escalation of attacks on crowded cities as a blatant terror campaign, while U.S. President Joe Biden warned that if the Russian leader didn’t “pay a price” for the invasion, the aggression wouldn’t stop with one country.
“Nobody will forgive. Nobody will forget,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed after Tuesday’s bloodshed on the central square in Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, and the deadly bombing of a TV tower in the capital. He called the attack on the square “frank, undisguised terror” and a war crime.
The assault on Kharkiv continued Wednesday, even as Russia said it would be ready to resume talks with the Ukrainian side in the evening. A Russian strike on the regional police and intelligence headquarters, according to the Ukrainian state emergency service. It said three people were wounded.
The strike blew off the roof of the police building and set the top floor on fire, and pieces of the five-story building were strewn across adjacent streets, according to videos and photos released by the emergency service.
Biden used his first State of the Union address to highlight the resolve of a reinvigorated Western alliance that has worked to rearm the Ukrainian military and adopt tough sanctions, which he said have left Russian President Vladimir Putin “isolated in the world more than he has ever been.”
“Throughout our history we’ve learned this lesson — when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos,” Biden said. “They keep moving. And the costs and threats to America and the world keep rising.”
As Biden spoke, a 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of hundreds of Russian tanks and other vehicles advanced slowly on Kyiv, the capital city of nearly 3 million people, in what the West feared was a bid by Putin to topple the government and install a Kremlin-friendly regime.
The invading forces also pressed their assault on other towns and cities, including the strategic ports of Odesa and Mariupol in the south.
As the seventh day of the war dawned Wednesday, Russia found itself increasingly isolated, beset by the sanctions that have thrown its economy into turmoil and left the country practically friendless, apart from a few nations like China, Belarus and North Korea. Leading Russian bank Sberbank announced Wednesday that it is pulling out of European markets amid the tightening Western sanctions.
As fighting raged, the humanitarian situation worsened. Roughly 660,000 people have fled Ukraine, and countless others have taken shelter underground.
The death toll was less clear, with neither Russia nor Ukraine releasing the number of troops lost. The U.N. human rights office said it has recorded 136 civilian deaths, though the actual toll is surely far higher.
One senior Western intelligence official estimated that 5,000 Russian soldiers had been captured or killed in the biggest ground war in Europe since World War II.
Many military experts worry that Russia may be shifting tactics. Moscow’s strategy in Chechnya and Syria was to use artillery and air bombardments to pulverize cities and crush fighters’ resolve.
Britain’s Defense Ministry said it had seen an increase in Russian air and artillery strikes on populated urban areas over the past two days. It also said Kharkiv and Mariupol were encircled by Russian forces and that troops had reportedly moved into the center of a third city, Kherson. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had seized Kherson, though the claim could not be confirmed.
Ukrainian authorities said five people were killed in the attack on the TV tower near central Kyiv. A TV control room and power substation were hit, and at least some Ukrainian channels briefly stopped broadcasting, officials said.
Zelenskyy’s office reported that the site of the Babi Yar Holocaust memorial, which is adjacent to the TV tower, was also hit. A spokesman for the memorial said a Jewish cemetery at the site, where Nazi occupiers killed more than 33,000 Jews over two days in 1941, was damaged, but the extent would not be clear until daylight.
Zelenskyy expressed outrage Wednesday at the attack on Babi Yar and concern that other historically significant and religious sites, such as St. Sophia’s Cathedral, could be targeted.
“This is beyond humanity. Such missile strike means that for many Russians our Kyiv is absolutely foreign,” Zelenskyy said in a speech posted on Facebook. “They have orders to erase our history, our country and all of us.”
Russia previously told people living near transmission facilities used by Ukraine’s intelligence agency to leave their homes. But Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed Wednesday that the airstrike on the TV tower did not hit any residential buildings. He did not address the reported deaths or the damage to Babi Yar.
In Kharkiv, with a population of about 1.5 million, at least six people were killed when the region’s administrative building on Freedom Square was hit with what was believed to be a missile. The Slovenian Foreign Ministry said its consulate in Kharkiv, located in another large building on the square, was destroyed.
The attack on the square — the nucleus of public life in the city — was seen by many Ukrainians as brazen evidence that the Russian invasion wasn’t just about hitting military targets but also about breaking their spirit.
The bombardment blew out windows and walls of buildings that ring the square, which was piled high with debris and dust. Inside one building, chunks of plaster were scattered, and doors lay across hallways.
Another Russian airstrike hit a residential area in the city of Zhytomyr. Ukraine’s emergency services said Tuesday’s strike killed at least two people, burned three homes and broke the windows in a nearby hospital. About 85 miles (140 kilometers) west of Kyiv, Zhytomyr is the home of the elite 95th Air Assault Brigade, which may have been the intended target.
In the southern port city of Mariupol, the mayor said the attacks were relentless.
“They have been flattening us non-stop for 12 hours now,” Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying. “We cannot even take the wounded from the streets, from houses and apartments today, since the shelling does not stop.”
https://www.militarytimes.com/flash...raine-urban-areas-on-seventh-day-of-war/

Volunteer fighters arrive in Ukraine. But the untrained should stay home.
Pussies need not apply.
Several hundred volunteers willing to fight Russians alongside Ukrainian forces have already arrived in that embattled nation, according to a government official there.
A defense official at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington D.C. told Military Times that they have already received more than 3,000 applications for U.S. citizens wanting to fight. That figure, he said, includes many military veterans. He could not say how many.
The Ukrainian officials spoke to Military Times on the condition of anonymity to discuss the plans.
On Sunday, Military Times reported that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy created “The International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine.”
It is a new effort, the Ukrainian official told Military Times, to help bolster the fight.
The Russian advance on Kyiv is stalled at the moment, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Thursday morning, in part because of a stiff Ukrainian resistance. Military Times also reported that Ukrainian aircraft and other assets have struck a 40-mile long convoy about 25 kilometers north of Kyiv.
A number of veterans have reached out to Military Times, either saying they are planning to travel to Ukraine to fight or want to. Ukraine’s embassy in Washington, D.C. did not immediately respond to questions about how many U.S. veterans had signed up.
The call for volunteers has been met with enthusiasm on several online forums like Reddit and Discord.
One Reddit page for those volunteering to fight for Ukraine has more than 32,000 members according to the site.
While the forums do have people claiming to be combat veterans, many seem to be young people who have never seen combat or even picked up a gun, heading to Ukraine in search of adventure in the name of a good cause.
A former SEAL turned CIA officer who writes under the name Frumentarius offers his own advice about going.
Notify the U.S. State Department first, he urges. And he offers a note of caution to those who want to fight.
“You aren’t Rambo,” he writes in SANDBOXX.
“If you are determined to go, be professional, responsible, and realistic in your expectations,” Frumentarius writes. “Follow the Ukrainian government’s advice about how to officially register, and do not go there telling them where and how you want to participate in the fighting.
“They will place you in whatever capacity they need you, and wherever they need you most. You are not Rambo, there to single-handedly slay Russians and post your selfies. You will be part of a military machine that is under extreme stress, and you need to seamlessly integrate into that system to be an effective part of it.”
No volunteers will be allowed to bring their own weapons, said the Ukrainian official. Those who fight will be issued at least rifles, he added. He would not comment on whether they will be issued other types of weapons.
Ukraine officials stress to Military Times that they are looking for foreign volunteers with combat experience who require little training before being armed and sent to the front line.
The instructions for joining the legion require “documents confirming military service or work with law enforcement agencies and participation in combat.”
“We are asking for trained people to come,” said the official in Ukraine. “We don’t have time for training.”
The defense official in Washington said there are opportunities for help beyond combat.
“We do not want to send people who are not trained, but at the same time, people can provide medical help. Or some can analyze mass media if they do not wish to fight.”
The defense official, however, stressed all these efforts are voluntary.
“We are not hiring anyone,” he said.
https://www.militarytimes.com/flash...aine-but-the-untrained-should-stay-home/

Fire in Zaporizhzhya, Europe's largest nuclear power plant
In Zaporizhzhya, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, a fire rages in the night from Thursday to Friday. The mayor of nearby Energodar, in southeastern Ukraine, reports in a Facebook video that the fire started after an attack by Russian ground forces. The fire can be seen in unverified images on social media.

Russian troops have been trying to capture the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in recent days. The developments surrounding Energodar already led on Thursday to a response from the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA, which called on Russian and Ukrainian troops not to fight in the area around the nuclear power plant.

For no country to put a stop to this , it just goes to show how corrupt all countries and politicians are.

it was so nice of Pelosi and all these other worthless politicians to back full sanctions after 5 days to get ahead of selling off their Euro stock interests.
Disgusting, all of them.

Italian authorities have seized a super yacht owned by Alexei Mordashov, Russia 's richest man.

Five Sky News journalists were shot at Monday while working near the Ukrainian capital Kiev, UK news channel chief Ukraine correspondent Stuart Ramsay reported Friday. Cameraman Richie Mockler is said to have received two bullets to his bulletproof vest and Ramsay himself was injured by a bullet in his lower back.

i wonder if putin will stop at ukraine or will keep going for the rest of europe

If he attacks NATO Russia will be destroyed, they have no chance. NATO 's budget is ten times as large and they have the best technologies/weapons.

Nearly 20,000 people from 52 countries have volunteered for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. "The whole world is on our side today, not only in words, but also in deeds," said Kyiv Independent Foreign Minister Dmitro Koeleba, who announced the number on Sunday.
According to Koeleba, this concerns both veterans and people without military experience. He declined to say which countries the volunteers come from or how many of them are already in Ukraine.

the thing is that he might use nuclaer weapon
and then nato and all of the world will suffer a lot. even if they win the war.

It's part of the Russian doctrine, but to actually do it is another thing. I don't think Putin want to destroy his own country NATO's nuclear umbrella is also essential for Europe's security.

Why Putin will regret launching this war

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/06/opinions/bergen-mike-repass-putin-invasion/index.html

I absolutely, positively, didn't want the U.S. and the Nato countries getting involved in this conflict. Now I'm not so sure anymore.

I think this Putin isn't going to stop until we stop em! He's pulling a Hitler here, in that he's trying to reestablish Mother Russia to its former glory from a half century ago as the USSR. It's never gonna happen but he's too psychotic and delusional to understand that fact.

If we allow him to take Ukraine, and he will. What's next? Latvia? Poland? He'll get more emboldened than he already is by the free world's apathy and push further to take more ground.

As much as I hate to say it, I think we gotta go kick this guy in the ass. It's like the bully in the schoolyard who threatens everyone and pushes his weight around. You just gotta walk up to him and punch him square in his face!

Nuclear Armament? Well we got that too! And so does other allied nations. We cannot allow him to use that against us as a scare tactic. Because it'll be never-ending bullying.

Georgia will be his next target or Moldova. Belarus has a tight grip on the country and is a puppet of Russia. Russia loses, they lose any hope of controlling the Black Sea. Ukraine is blocking a lot of water from getting into Crimea, which has been upsetting the Russians for a few years. This also constrains supplies to Stevapol, which is Russia's most valuable Naval base as they can launch year round, where their northern ports are iced over for half a year, the Baltics have a lot of treaties, while the Pacific base is most of the times rough and close to North Korean, and Japan's water boundaries. Russia broke their promise to Ukraine. Anyone notice China's military movements up and during this conflict, especially after the sanctions and Russia economy being hit majorly hard. Yeah they are eyeing Taiwan but have pulled there forces back into mainland China, with its navy still monitoring Taiwan. There are more than 20,000 foreigners fight for Ukraine. The Chechens are fighting on both sides. Everyone says Putin has lost it, but he still has not attacked a NATO country, that should tell you something.

Gasoline price is going way up here € 2.41 EURO.

Good analysis.

If Poland becomes the transfer terminal for fighter jets to Ukraine, will Putin move against her? If so, then the rest of NATO has to respond.

Keep in mind that the reason that the US buys Russian oil is due to the restrictions codified in the Jones Act which prohibits any ships except US ships from transporting oil between US ports. Since that is so expensive to do, US oil companies on those coasts buy Russian oil.

And you think the world has a chance if that happens?

If Putins Nukes are in the same shape as his military we should move quickly.

The probably don’t even fire.

We must save these people, its wrong not to help more.

He probably thinks Russia keeps it's entire nuclear arsenal in Russia lol

Stockpile alone, Russia is the largest nuclear power in the world. The majority of the ones that are ready to go are at sea. Their subs are strategically placed all over the globe. If something were to happen to Russia it's fucking lights out for all of us LOLL

We are always helping. How about we help Americans in America? Putin isn't Hitler. At this point its about saving face for him. He'll take Ukraine but he knows he can't do anything else

As long as that help doesn't include warfare I'm all for it haha

at this point i don't think anyone can help ukraine.
with 200K russian soldiers in ukraine (that's what they reported in the news) then it's over for them.
but if finland or sweden are next then someone's got to do something to stop them !

He's not going into Finland or Sweden. Like Ralphie said, this is about saving face right now. I would be astounded if he tried to go into Moldova or any of the other old Soviet nations

Is anyone worried that the Ukrainians are doing too well against the Russians' ? That nuclear trigger is gonna get more and more tempting for baldie. Heard they had six Mig 31s flying into Kaliningrad. They can carry a warhead of about 500 kilotons which is over 30 times the power of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima

Putin could definitely go ahead and push some buttons if he so chooses....and shortly thereafter he and Russia would get their asses vaporized as well!

He may be crazy and a bully, but he's not stupid for himself and his loved ones. Believe that! (in order words, at the end of the day he ain't making THAT move because he knows if he does Mother Russia and everything he loves will be a memory). And IMO he loves himself way too much for that!

A Scottish grandfather, Rab Grady (centre), announced he was fighting alongside the Ukrainians on a video he posted online

Massive news: Roman Abramovich sanctioned. All UK assets frozen. Chelsea can still operate under a special licence but sale now on hold. Club will not be allowed to sell any more tickets - only season ticket holders can go to games for the foreseeable future.

I no Rooty, for Vladimir Putty!.....because this Russkie snooty is targeting the innocent people of Ukraine where he's taking his doody!

Saw an interview with the Klitschko brothers with Dutch TV. Very impressive they would die for their country.

Wow. You think their boxing skills would come in handy?

Against a Kalashnikov rifle or machine-gun from 30 yards out?

Definitely!...especially that long jab of theirs.

HAHAHAHAHAHHAH I hope this is a fucking joke. They might be able to knock out a couple of soldiers but that's it. They were good but not that good

They did have an incredible jab yes lol. You know what, I take everything I said back. I think they could do it

NATO, looking through rose-colored glasses, sees Putin losing: He started out by trying to weaken or intimidate NATO, but NATO (and much of the rest of the world) united against him. Brave and capable Ukranians have tarnished his armed forces' lofty reputation; sanctions are wrecking his economy, and his people are demonstrating in Moscow's streets against him.

Take off rose-colored glasses: Putin is winning. He will stop at nothing to crush Ukraine, no matter how much destruction he causes, and no matter how many Ukrainians--and Russian soldiers--die. The oligarchs and the common folks in Russia aren't going to unite to force him out--Russian "democracy" is a millimeter thin, and Russians love "strongmen"--they loved Stalin, they love him. Sanctions took their best shot against Putin, and he's still standing. And, Putin is defining how NATO responds to him: no "No Fly" zone, no Polish MIGs for Ukraine-- for fear of "provoking" him--as if he's not provoked now. He's not worried about a war of attrition because, as Napoleon said, "God is on the side of the big battalions."

There's a grim reality: NATO is weak, and can't afford a war against Russia. Only Britain and Germany have capable armed forces; the other NATO "partners" have spent so little on national defense that they can't even combat domestic terrorism. Putin knows that, NATO knows that. Ukraine is not a NATO member, If war broke out, the US would have to send American soldiers to fight, bleed and die on foreign soil--again.

US officials say China is helping Russia with their invasion. Chinese officials deny this.

This situation is definitely a major problem for Nato and the U.S. If he keeps pushing, and Putin will, at some point we're gonna have to kick him in the ass. (and you damn well know who's boot its gonna have to be right?).

Kick him in the ass how? Drop a nuke on him? Russia has already been decimated economically. His support is dropping by the second and he knows he can't do anything. Ukraine isn't worth it. Let him have it lol

If he takes Ukraine. Do you think he will stop there? I doubt it. Soon he'll be looking to push up on Bosnia or Moldova, or Poland, etc. If he takes that, then what?

It'll be like Hitler in 1939 where looking back the U.S. says we "shoulda," we "coulda," stopped that whacky fuck at Munich in 39'

I agree not to go to war yet. But I don't think this scumbag will allow us that pleasure. If he stops and gracefully backs off, or they reach an "accord," then fine. But honestly I don't see it happening.

Believe me I don't wanna see us involved because I got 2 sons both of whom are of age to be drafted and fight. I hope not!

The only beneficiaries of this ugly, horrible war are the world's intelligence services. You can bet that every spy satellite is watching the Russian Army's tactics, order of battle and overall performance. They will crank what they learn into their own armed forces' plans. I hope the Ukrainians are removing the electronic brains from Russian planes, tanks and other advanced equipment--and turning them over to us.

Don't forget arms producers. They always benefit during wartime. Lockheed, General Dynamics, Boeing, BAE all make a fortune..

Without a friggin doubt!

Russia reports deployment of hypersonic missiles, dozens dead in Mykolaiv
Russia has used hypersonic missiles to destroy military targets in Ukraine, Russia's defense ministry reported, according to state news agency Interfax . Dozens of people were killed in rocket attacks in the southern city of Mykolaiv on Friday night, BBC News reported .

The British broadcaster relies on statements by a Ukrainian parliamentarian. It would be an air raid on a Ukrainian barracks.

In addition to the dead, there were also dozens of injured. The Belgian war journalist Robin Ramaekers, who is present in the city, even reports eighty deaths. Claims about the death toll in the city have not yet been verified by independent media.

"Our troops continue to defend the city. The Russians cannot break the fierce resistance, so they also shoot at civilians," said the Ukrainian parliamentarian.

"The Russian Mafia"....led by "Kapo" Vladimir Putin, aka; "Vlad the Puttana"

Some of you may already be aware of these broadcasters on Youtube. But, if not, look up some of them such as Sherrirae, Mel K, and Judy Byington. There are many more.

Why listen to them? They are completely on the side of Putin (and off their rocker). These are Americans backing Putin. They maintain that Putin is wiping out Ukranian Nazis who are allied to Biden et al and are running a huge world-wide child trafficking network.

They are the same people who maintain that Trump is still President operating in the background, that many prominent Americans such as Tom Hanks, Oprah, and even Biden were arrested and tried by the military, and executed and that when you see videos of them, that's all CGI. They also maintain that JFK, Jr. is still alive and is actually Trump's VP. They maintain that thousands more have been arrested by the military and executed, that Washington, DC is empty, that the White House is surrounded by a high fence and the military, and that the federal buildings there are vacant. They also maintain that any recent bad weather we've experienced is the result of CIA control.

This is just a sample of their rantings: really and truly, you need to listen to them.

I'm good olivant. I draw the line at CNN

Wall Street Journal over the past several days has articles on weakness of Russian armed forces. The fact that four (now five) Russian generals have been killed i fighting shows, that their chain of combat command below general officer level is weak and unreliable. Equipment is breaking down at a high rate, logistics and supply are awful, morale and discipline among troops is poor, with many looting stores because they aren't being fed. And, they never anticipated the courageous and capable resistance of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians

All of this, if true, is good news for the civilized world. But, I worry that it will cause Putin to take desperate measures, like chemical, biological and nuclear warfare. Nothing stops his brutality and paranoia.

I agree TB that Putin may become desperate. His attacking civilian targets is evidence of that.

Have you listened to any of the alt-right youtube podcasts I referenced above?

Russia may think it's a superpower, but even Italy's economy is much bigger.

I tried Mel K for all of seven minutes.

At least 80 billion euros in Russian assets are parked in the Netherlands. Of this, 45 billion euros would belong to organizations and persons on the European sanctions list, according to research by the FD. The amounts are in stark contrast to the amount that has been frozen in the Netherlands under the sanctions against Russia, according to De Nederlandsche Bank: 200 million euros.

The worse it goes for Russia, the more dangerous Putin might become. I wonder if any major powers will see this as an opportunity to line up with Putin. If China ever backs him, things get even more dangerous. Tons of credit to the Ukraine for how well they have fought and the invasion.

That has to be one of the dumbest things I've heard in a good while. Determining the world's most powerful countries is a much more complex process than simply by looking at a country's GDP. Does this mean you think Canada is a bigger superpower than Russia?

BBC Newsroom: Russia-Ukraine war

Analysis, reports and reaction to Russia's military assault on Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0bqz7j7

The nuclear facts behind Putin’s first-use threat

Charts and Diagrams

https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/the-nuclear-facts-behind-putins-first-use-threat/

Hundreds of American tanks and armored cars arrive in Vlissingen

https://www.europereloaded.com/thou...and-armored-cars-arriving-in-vlissingen/

The guided-missile cruiser Moskva, named for the Russian capital, sank while being towed to port after suffering heavy damage.

The Moskva had the capacity to carry 16 long-range cruise missiles.

If Ukraine hit the Moskva with missiles, the cruiser likely represents the largest warship to be sunk in combat since the 1982 Falklands War, which saw a similar-sized cruiser called the ARA General Belgrano torpedoed by a British submarine, killing over 300 sailors on board.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...ack-sea-22d7279f32c15d4a7037a2195113fb57

Russia-Ukraine War LIVE: Russia warns of nuclear war

https://www.hindustantimes.com/worl...on-april-26-tuesday-101650931010873.html

this is starting to get uglier
i won't be surprised if russia will try to prevent the west weapons supply to ukraine by force...
which will end up in a huge direct war between the west and russia

I don't think Putin is a good guy, doing such things. However Ukraine has had a Nazi problem and we didn't get to see Maxwell's list of clients as to who was part of the child trafficking network. However we get to see Johnny Depp's trial case in detail. All these from the MSM that has lied on every single issue of the so called pandemic for two years, now instead of being accountable, they start on another distraction for the masses. What's next? Alien invasion? Famine? Another pandemic where WHO is in charge? They extinguish crisis with crisis. I don't follow the news anymore, from neither side. This documentary was interesting. Didn't watch all of it. However it does address the Nazi problem in Ukraine.

https://rumble.com/vwxxi8-ukraine-on-fire.html

Even Germany has agreed to deliver anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine, the German Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday.
It's very sensitive because of the communist history of eastern Germany.

US urges more arms for Ukraine amid fears of expanding war

The U.S. pressed its allies Tuesday to move “heaven and earth” to keep Kyiv well-supplied with weapons as Russian forces rained fire on eastern and southern Ukraine amid growing new fears the war could spill over the country’s borders.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...ss-nato-9198d40f605385550c02e82c6366ccca

Vladimir Putin's war effort has been left in ruins after his top commander - Valeriy Gerasimov - was reportedly wounded and forced to flee the country after a Ukrainian ambush attack. The devastating attack is a huge blow to the Kremlin after President Putin had personally sent General Gerasimov to rescue the stalled war ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade. General Gerasimov, who is the chief of staff of the Russian army, had been sent to the region to take personal control of the all-out assault on the Donbas region.

Nancy Peloisi showed up there today with a congressional delegation. That can only mean one thing: the situation will get worse.

Russia’s Putin To Hand Over Keys To War While He Has Cancer Surgery

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-he-has-cancer-surgery-report/ar-AAWN94M

Ukraine admits ‘Ghost of Kyiv’ fighter pilot is a myth

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-media-social-cc6e278ae22f37476eb95e5133541047

there are still rumors about moldova being russia next target

I just read that also, in the NYPost. We'll see. If it's true, hopefully he croaks right on the table. It could potentially save millions of lives.

It would be an ideal opportunity for Putin's foes to have him killed and blame it on medical circumstances, It'd be rough justice, too, considering all the foes Putin had murdered by poison.

Italy Freezes Scheherazade Superyacht Linked To Vladimir Putin

https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacom...inked-to-vladimir-putin/?sh=49dd3c1111e8

Finland’s NATO membership: Finland's leaders announced in a joint statement on Thursday that they are in favor of applying for NATO membership, moving the Nordic nation closer to joining the alliance. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, public support for joining NATO in Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia, has leaped from around 30% to nearly 80% in some polls.

Sweden could be next: It is also expected that Sweden, Finland’s neighbor to the west, will soon announce its intention to join NATO. Sweden's foreign minister said Thursday that the country will "take Finland’s assessments into account." Russia has warned both countries against joining the alliance, saying there would be consequences.

Support for Finland: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Finland would be "warmly welcomed" into the alliance. Meanwhile, NATO members Denmark and Estonia said they would support Finland’s membership, with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen saying it "will strengthen NATO and our common security."

Moscow's reaction: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that Russia would see Finland's accession to the NATO as a threat and the move would not contribute to more security. Russia will analyze the situation with Finland's entry to NATO and will work out the necessary measures to ensure its own security, he added.

things are getting serious...

Coup to remove cancer-stricken Putin underway in Russia, Ukrainian intelligence chief says

https://fortune.com/2022/05/14/does-putin-have-cancer-coup-underway-blood-cancer-ukraine-war/

Moscow – Rare realism from a military analyst on Russian state television. "We are in complete geopolitical isolation and the whole world is against us." Discharged Colonel Mikhail Chodaryonok warned before Putin's raid that the operation would not go smoothly and now he is right. "As much as we hate to admit that, we have to get out of this situation."

...

Protester painted in Ukraine colors ejected from Cannes red carpet

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...rs-ejected-cannes-red-carpet-2022-05-20/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fb2V7yTRtg

Russia is studying an Italian peace plan for UKraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said Monday, according to Interfax.
"Moscow is studying Italy's plan to resolve the situation in Ukraine," Rudenko was reported as saying.
Italy's four-stage plan would feature a ceasefire, talks on Ukraine's 'international status', i.e. whether it is neutral, a bilateral agreement between Kyiv and Moscow on the contested areas of Crimea and Donbass, and a multilateral agreement on peace and security in Europe.

The European police organization Europol is concerned about the large amount of weapons being delivered to Ukraine. When the war is over, they could fall into the wrong hands.

That says Europol chief Catherine De Bolle in conversation with the German newspaper Die Welt am Sonntag. De Bolle is especially afraid of a repeat of the end of the wars in the Balkans.

Weapons from those wars are used by criminal gangs thirty years later, says De Bolle. She fears that the weapons from Ukraine will continue to roam.

I am glad to see this war updated on here. The American news media could not cover it enough a few weeks ago, now coverage of it is sparse. Most people thought it would be over by now, but sadly it seems like this war is going to drag on, and eventually draw others into it. If Putin is really sick, I wonder if his successor (if Putin dies) will try to end the war or escalate things.

Ukrainians Wipe Out Russian Base Hidden In Trees

https://www.zenger.news/2022/05/27/ukrainians-wipe-out-russian-base-hidden-in-trees/

Ukrainian troops have slowed down their liberation of Russian-occupied territories as they lack fire-power and manpower, Zelenskiy said in an interview with the Financial Times, according to a transcript of his remarks provided by the president’s office.

Ukraine needs 10 times the amount of weapons and people to move forward with its counteroffensive, he said. Even so, Zelenskiy reiterated his country needs to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Having Russian troops pushed back to their Feb. 24 positions would only be a temporary victory as Ukraine has to regain control over all of its territories, he said.

========================
We have weapons, but, where are "the people" he speaks of going to come from??

Moscow’s chief rabbi ‘in exile’ after resisting Kremlin pressure over war
Pinchas Goldschmidt left Russia just weeks after invasion of Ukraine, daughter-in-law says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...fter-resisting-kremlin-pressure-over-war

John Cena turns the dream of a Ukrainian refugee with Down syndrome into a reality

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...th-down-syndrome-into-a-reality-20220608

Vladimir Putin ally warns London ‘will be bombed first’ if World War 3 breaks out
June 25, 2022 by Admin
In this article, you will get all the information regarding Vladimir Putin ally warns London ‘will be bombed first’ if World War 3 breaks out
London will be the first strategic Nato target to be hit by Russian missiles should World War Three erupt, a close ally of presdient Vladimir Putin has claimed.

Speaking on Russian state TV Andrey Gurulyov, an MP sat on Moscow’s defence committee, described a full-scale invasion of Nato’s Baltic state members.

Gurulyov, a former military commander and member of the pro-Putin United Russia party, said: “We’ll destroy the entire group of enemy’s space satellites during the first air operation.

“No-one will care if they are American or British, we would see them all as NATO.

“Second, we’ll mitigate the entire system of anti-missile defence, everywhere and 100 per cent. Third, we certainly won’t start from Warsaw, Paris or Berlin. The first to be hit will be London.

“It’s crystal clear that the threat to the world comes from the Anglo-Saxons.”

Russia and their Gold

Welcome to NATO Sweden and Finland we become stronger again.

you do...
instead of getting weaker nato got stronger and more united
this is not what russia wanted from the beginning of the war

Bank of England tells lenders to brace for economic storm

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of England warned on Tuesday that the economic outlook for Britain and the world had darkened and told banks to ramp up capital buffers to ensure they can weather the storm.

"The economic outlook for the UK and globally has deteriorated materially," the BoE said as it published its latest Financial Stability Report, adding that developments around the war in Ukraine would be a key factor.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-tells-lenders-brace-economic-storm-2022-07-05/

Putin dares the West to fight, one day after top Moscow leader threatens to take back Alaska

https://justthenews.com/government/...er-top-moscow-leader-threatens-take-back

"Sarah Palin: "I can see Russian troops landing from my house." (Maybe)

NYC getting prepared...

Fear sells

Word! They have updated duck and go under the table with stay inside and watch TV. I thought it was time for alien invasion, but no. It's time for nuclear war that can be avoided by not going outside and following the media.

Russia doesn't tend to lose wars....so far....

Ukraine war: Russia plans to annex Ukrainian land

Russia plans to annex more Ukrainian territory using a similar "playbook" to its takeover of Crimea, the US says.

Citing US intelligence, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Russia is already laying the groundwork for annexation.

Occupied regions of Ukraine could hold "sham" referenda on joining Russia as soon as September, he said.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 after a referendum which was widely viewed as illegitimate.

"We want to make it plain to the American people," Mr Kirby told reporters. "Nobody is fooled by it. [Russian President Vladimir Putin] is dusting off the playbook from 2014."

He accused Russia of installing illegitimate pro-Russian officials to run occupied regions of Ukraine, with the aim of organising referenda on becoming part of Russia.

The results of the votes would be used by Russia "to try to claim annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory", Mr Kirby said.

Russia has already installed its own regional and local officials in the parts of Ukraine it has occupied.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62231936

Ukraine war: CIA chief says no intelligence that Putin is in bad health

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62246914

Russia's departure from the International Space Station in 2024 will seriously affect the country's space sector, say experts.

Building its own space station could take at least a decade with "the most generous funding", says analyst Vitaly Yegorov

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1552102616515379201

Russia to build Death Star near Earth ? ? ?

The United States added sanctions on more Russian elites Tuesday in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Among them: Vladimir Putin's purported girlfriend and Andrey Grigoryevich Guryev, who owns the 2nd largest estate in London after Buckingham Palace


https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1554605463295115264

War 'about to enter new phase', UK intelligence warns
We’ve got more from the UK’s MoD.

On what Ukraine’s troops are focusing on, it adds:

Ukrainian forces are focusing their targeting on bridges, ammunition depots, and rail links with growing frequency in Ukraine’s southern regions.

Including the strategically important railroad spur that links Kherson to Russian-occupied Crimea, almost certainly using a combination of block, damage, degrade, deny, destroy, and disrupt effects to try to affect Russia’s ability to logistically resupply.

The MoD then adds it believes the war is about to enter a “new phase”.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is about to enter a new phase, with the heaviest fighting shifting to a roughly 350km frontline stretching south-west from near Zaporizhzhia to Kherson, paralleling the Dnieper River.

Russia sent Steven Seagal to occupied Ukraine to spread propaganda, part of his role as a Kremlin spokesman

https://www.businessinsider.nl/russ...part-of-his-role-as-a-kremlin-spokesman/

Ukraine is not even a NATO member... I've had about enough of the "Cold War" spending... Americans need monetary help more than some corrupt Govt. in Africa, or Asia, or the Ukraine...

US to send $3 billion in aid to Ukraine as war hits 6 months

https://apnews.com/article/us-ukraine-3-billion-dollar-aid-package-363cdbeb670626eb410d72e81bd8068c

The car bombing of Darya Dugina in Moscow is interesting her father was def the target!
Who was behind it FSB, Ukraine secret services, CIA??

Maintenance work: New record: gas price rises to 315 euros per MWh
BUSINESSPlumley News about 2 hours ago
\
The gas price in Europe continues to soar. The futures contract TTF on the energy exchange in Amsterdam, which is trend-setting for European gas trading, continues to rise and reached the record value of 315 euros per megawatt hour on Thursday.

In the past week, natural gas was traded at a peak of just under 241 euros. Within a week, the price has risen by 23 percent. And compared to the previous year, the price of gas has increased almost twelvefold.

Maintenance work
On the market, the new surge in gas prices was explained by a renewed interruption in Russian gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Russia has announced that it will suspend gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in the Baltic Sea for three days at the end of August. The state-owned company Gazprom announced that no gas would flow from August 31 to September 2 due to maintenance work.

According to Russian information, after the maintenance work, 33 million cubic meters of natural gas will be delivered again every day. This corresponds to the 20 percent of the daily maximum output to which Russia reduced deliveries a few weeks ago.

The CEO of Lukoil Ravil Maganov "fell out of a window", about a dozen of oligarchs have died during the war under mysterious circumstances. Real mafia shit. One less constant critic for Vladimir Putin.

Russians are fleeing the second-largest city in Ukraine Kharkov now Putin faces second revolt as Russian Officials slam War, demand resignation.

Russian energy exec falls from boat in latest mystery death

https://nypost.com/2022/09/12/russian-energy-exec-falls-to-his-death-from-boat/

China as well as India have growing concerns about how the war is going. During a meeting with India's Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Uzbekistan security summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wanted to end the Ukraine conflict "as soon as possible," without saying how.

Exclusive: NATO chief calls Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...scalation-dangerous-reckless-2022-09-21/

Russians researched how to break their own arms and hurriedly bought one-way plane tickets out of the country to avoid war call-up.
Russian conscripts would be 'cannon fodder' 90% of these reservists have not received any form of training.

Yes, I think conscription is going to backfire on Putin. Russia today is not like the USSR of the Afghanistan war era. Russia doesn't have an antiwar movement like America's during the Vietnam War era. But, young Russian men are just as likely to resist being conscripted into fighting a war they don't want as were their US counterparts years ago.

Yeah now young people in Moscow and Saint Petersburg have to go to fight a war against their brothers and most of them will die the western weapons the Ukranians have are superior.

Ukraine war: Putin not bluffing about nuclear weapons, EU says

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63016675

Complaints about Russia's chaotic mobilization grow

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...tic-mobilisation-grow-louder-2022-09-24/

Europe investigates 'attacks' on Russian gas pipelines to Europe

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ndersea-gas-pipelines-europe-2022-09-27/

Vladimir Putin heightens World War tensions with rant about the West on big day in Russia and Ukraine war
Putin's lengthy diatribe today culminated with the signing of documents that, from Russia's perspective, has made four Ukrainian regions part of the Russian Federation.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-heightens-world-war-28124224

You can take Russia out of the Soviet Union, but you can't take the Soviet Union out of Russia. Stalin is dead; long live Stalin.

100% that's why Putin denied today seeking to revive the Soviet Union. However communism has been replaced by nationalism and imperialism.

I do think China, India and Kazachstan could press Putin not to escalate further. China doesn't want a war with the West.

His speech was pretty scary!

Putin portrayed the annexation as a holy war against the West, using startling rhetoric.

"They [the West] are moving toward open Satanism," he said in a speech broadcast to millions online.

Western elites were teaching "sexual deviation" to children who changed their gender, he said. "We're fighting for historical Russia, to protect our children and grandchildren from this experiment to change their souls," he added.

Putin invoked Jesus by name to bear witness to his "truth" and portrayed himself in messianic terms.

"I believe in the spiritual power of the Russian people and my spirit is its spirit, the suffering of the people is my suffering," he said.

"The destruction of the Western hegemony is irreversible," Putin added, as he neared the climax of his oration.

He's pulling a Hitler. Unfortunately, the U.S. can't be the war machine we once were. If it wasn't for our ability to aid the world in WW2, Europe would've collapsed. Our industry is outsourced, kids are pussies, and all of our comrades are fighting an imaginary war.

Europe still can't carry their own weight they are now waiting what the US will do.

Wait until winter comes. We've dipped into our oil reserves. Our president can't even ride a bike. Hopefully his cabinet can play chess.

Blinken is a smart guy, but I agree Biden often looks lost and confused lol.

Russian natural gas lines... some go through Ukraine, others don't, but the ramifications to Germany cannot be understated...

Germany's Catastrophic Gas Problem

Russia said on Saturday its troops had abandoned their bastion of Lyman in Ukraine's east for fear of encirclement and the leader of Chechnya, a close Kremlin ally, said Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in response.

The fall of the town is a major setback for Moscow after President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the annexation of the Donetsk region, along with three other regions, at a ceremony on Friday that was condemned by Kyiv and the West as a farce.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...nd-lyman-stronghold-military-2022-10-01/

Prices here are still going up it's crazy and we still didn't reach the peak. The third economy of Europe is now also hit hard.

The Russian state gas group Gazprom no longer supplies natural gas to Italy. This is reported by the Italian oil and gas company Eni. Eni says it has been informed by Gazprom that it is not possible to supply gas to Italy from Austria due to a transport problem.

There are growing doubts over whether Russia can actually win this war. This raises the question of whether the Russian elites are prepared to stick with Putin until the bitter end, particularly amid growing threats to use nuclear weapons.

The idea that Russia will inevitably prevail has started to be overshadowed by doubt over what price Russia is prepared to pay in order to bring Ukraine to heel. The longer the conflict rages and the more resources the Russian regime throws into the furnace of war, the more divided Russia’s elites may become, and the more serious those divides.

There are no signs that the Russian elite sees Ukraine as an existential problem for Russia. For Putin, it is an extremely emotional and personal topic. He is fixated on ideas of historical justice, Russian ancestral lands, and the desire to “liberate” the fraternal Ukrainian people from anti-Russian “occupiers” sponsored by the West. But this viewpoint is not shared even by many hawks, never mind the technocrats.

The Ukranian forces are making big progress in all four Russian-occupied territories.

One of the reasons senior military people in big nations don't want to get involved in a shooting war is that the purpose of having a strong military is to deter wars they don't want. Once their nation starts shooting, it's proof that their deterrent failed. Then they run the risk of losing, or failing to win decisively, which is the same as losing, for a big nation. Another reason is that their strategies, tactics and equipment are exposed to enemies and any other observers with spy satellites, which means just about every other nation on earth. NATO is pricking up priceless information on Russia's order of battle, capabilities, armaments and support infrastructure--and they're cranking what they learn into their own strategies and plans. It's a two-way street: even as they're being beaten, the Russians are learning about NATO's strengths and equipment as they're being used by NATO's proxy, Ukraine.

Russia warns US of direct military clash risk

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63140098

Russia’s Putin makes Chechnya’s Kadyrov an army general
Moscow
AFP
Published: 05 October ,2022: 07:28 PM GST

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, said Wednesday he was granted a top rank in Russia’s army, just as Moscow’s forces suffer a series of defeats in Ukraine.

The 46-year-old Chechen leader – one of the most outspoken voices in Russia backing Putin’s Ukraine offensive – said it was a “huge honor” for him.

Kadyrov, a former warlord, said Putin had “personally” informed him of the decision.

“The President of Russia awarded me the rank of colonel general,” Kadyrov said on Telegram. “This is a promotion for me.”

The rank of colonel general is the third highest command rank in the Russian military hierarchy.

Kadyrov’s appointment to the rank came as the Ukrainian army pushed back Moscow’s forces in areas that the Kremlin proclaimed to be “Russian forever.”

The Chechen leader said he would do “everything to end the special military operation quickly” – using the Kremlin’s term for its Ukraine campaign.

Chechen units – including Kadyrov’s own militia with a sinister reputation, the “Kadyrovtsi” – are fighting alongside regular Russian forces in Ukraine.

Kadyrov has thrown his full backing behind Putin’s campaign, regularly calling for the most drastic tactics to be used in Ukraine.

This week he called on Moscow to use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine after Russian troops were forced to retreat from the town of Lyman.

He then said he was sending three of his teenage sons – aged 14,15 and 16 – to the front.

Russian President Putin celebrated his 70th birthday on Friday. Only a handful of world leaders congratulated him, but a few even gave him a real gift. Also on the Ukrainian side, the birthday of the Russian president does not pass without a struggle.

To celebrate his 70th birthday, Putin held "an informal meeting" with some former Soviet leaders, including Armenia, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Tajikistan, in St. Petersburg on Friday. The last two also brought presents. For example, Putin received a voucher for a tractor from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan gave him a mountain of watermelons and pumpkins. The Russian leader also received calls from Cuba, Turkey, South Africa, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, among others. And even Kim Jong-un of North Korea sent Putin birthday wishes.

Domestically, the president was praised by state media, schools celebrated and Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church called for prayers to mark Putin's birthday. "God has placed you at the helm of power so that you can render a very important and responsible service to the future of the country and people entrusted to you," the head of the Russian Church said in a congratulatory telegram to the president.

We now see economic warfare on a full scale western sancties but also opec cuts oil production.

The UK Daily Mail coverage with lots of pictures and backstory...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/br...bridge-linking-Crimea-Putins-Russia.html

Russia appoints notorious general to lead Ukraine offensive

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...torious-general-sergei-surovikin-ukraine

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1579166216366985217

12:45pm CDT 10.9.22

Breaking911 (@Breaking911)

JUST IN: Putin blames Ukraine secret services for Crimea bridge blast, denounces 'terrorist act' - AFP

Putin denounces Kerch Bridge attack "a terrorist act" by Kyiv

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...t-kerch-bridge-linking-crimea-and-russia

A coup wouldn't suprise me, A coup d'état or putsch is the illegal overthrow of a government, usually by a small group of an existing state institution - usually by the military - to replace the deposed government with another institution.

Most of President Putin's Kremlin elite oppose the Ukraine war.

N. Korea confirms nuke missiles tests to ‘wipe out’ enemies

https://apnews.com/article/business...s-north-6ce0a8da47f8eb9228d4b33223ebfa3b

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches were tests of its tactical nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets, state media reported Monday, as its leader Kim Jong Un signaled he would conduct more provocative tests.

Russia fired missiles at cities across Ukraine on Monday morning, including the capital Kyiv, where at least five people were killed, according to officials. Strikes against "critical infrastructure" including power facilities were also reported in Kharkiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/11732

Amir Tsarfati

Air raid sirens are all across Ukraine:
Flights of cruise missiles are recorded in different regions.
Rocket launches from the Caspian in the direction of the Dnipropetrovsk region were recorded.

Russia is running out of weapons for its war in Ukraine and the costs to the Kremlin are "staggering" in terms of soldiers killed and equipment lost, a UK spy chief will say.

Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of GCHQ, will use a rare, public speech today to say the Ukrainian armed forces are "turning the tide" on the physical battlefield as well as in cyberspace.

He will say Beijing is seeking to exploit technologies in space and online in ways that could pose a "huge threat to us all".

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-r...rs-of-casualties-spy-chief-says-12717702

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar observed a "common understanding" regarding the need for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu on Tuesday, Akar's ministry said in a statement.

Akar emphasized the importance of an immediate ceasefire to stop loss of life and establish peace and stability in the region, according to a readout following the call between the two ministers.

"The importance of declaring a ceasefire urgently in order to prevent further loss of lives and to re-establish peace and stability in the region was emphasized, and it was gladly observed that there was a common understand?ng regarding the ceasefire," the Turkish defence ministry said.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) will go ahead with its annual routine nuclear deterrent exercises as cancelling it now would send the wrong signal to Moscow, NATO head Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference on Tuesday.

Stoltenberg said NATO's military strength was the best way to prevent any escalation of tensions with Russia, which has made veiled threats of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which it invaded on Feb 24th.

Russians shelled the city with thermite incendiary and white phosphorus cluster munitions.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/11745

Defense Russia: 11 dead in 'terrorist attack' on training ground
At least 11 people were killed and 15 injured in an attack on a Russian army training ground in Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry speaks of an act of terrorism. A statement from the ministry states that the attackers are two citizens from a former member state of the Soviet Union.

According to news agency RIA Novosti, the attack was on a training ground where 'volunteers' for the war in Ukraine receive shooting training, among other things. The perpetrators were shot dead.

It's strange we are in a war we send weapons but the Ukraine has to fight.

China India asking their citizens to leave Ukraine, Serbia close embassay in Kiev. CIS countries telling citizens to leave.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/11811

Some counties can read the map very well. They know Putin better than the western world does .

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/11812

North Korea is about to conduct a nuclear test in the next 24 hours

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/11818

Ukraine offers $100,000 bounty for Russian war criminal Igor Girkin
The Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate announced the reward on Oct. 16. Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, is a former Russian FSB agent and a key figure in the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine when he helped seize Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast, in 2014. Girkin has also been found guilty of participating in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine, which killed 283 people. He has since been critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of mishandling Russia’s war effort.

Ukraine use Turkish drones.
If they get the US drones they can take out anyone like they do with ISIS/Al Qaeda.
It's def becoming a drones and also a cyber war.

Fail of the day. A Russian defence ministry expert doesn't realise he is already on air and says: "Just don't ask too much about these Iranian drones. We all know they are Iranian, but the authorities don't want to admit it".

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1583042663426584578

The battle of Kherson could be very bloody.

The first city to fall to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was in turmoil on Monday as its Moscow-appointed officials began fleeing across a river to safer territory, while Russian soldiers appeared to be digging in for a fight against advancing Ukrainian forces.

Government offices in Kherson have been emptied of essential equipment. Civilians have been told by proxy officials loyal to the Kremlin to take “documents, money, valuables and clothes” and evacuate, according to Ukrainian officials, videos on social media and accounts from Ukrainian activists who have spoken to residents.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24/world/europe/russia-ukraine-kherson-war.html

What are dirty bombs and why is Russia talking about them?
Russia is taking highly disputed claims that Ukraine plans to use a dirty bomb on its own soil to the UN security council

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/25/what-are-dirty-bombs-russia-ukraine

Russia suspends participation in Ukraine grain export deal

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...by-deploying-new-nuclear-bombs-in-europe

Flamboyant Russian entrepreneur Oleg Tinkov tears up his Russian passport and denounces 'fascism' under President Putin.

The founder of the online Tinkoff Bank, one of the largest Russian banks with about 20 million customers, is lashing out at the Kremlin regime on Instagram.

“I can no longer and do not want to be associated with a fascist country that starts a war against a peaceful neighbor,” said Tinkov, who, unlike many other rich Russians, dares to take a public position against Putin. He previously called the Russian armed forces a 'shit army'.

An independent Russian news outlet tweeted a certificate confirming that Tinkov is no longer Russian, according to the BBC. Sota Vision also posted Tinkov's statement on Instagram on social media. However, the statement now appears to have been removed from Tinkov's account.

According to the BBC, Tinkov is currently living in London. Like many wealthy Russians, he would be hit hard by sanctions. “I hope that more prominent Russians follow my example, so that Putin's regime weakens and he eventually falls. I hate Putin's Russia, but I love all the Russians who turn against this foolish war."

Don’t let Russia win, NATO chief warns US
With Ukraine-skeptical Republicans poised for election gains, Jens Stoltenberg tells POLITICO a Russian victory would ‘send a message to authoritarian leaders — not only Putin but also China.’

Stoltenberg warned that Kyiv’s recent battlefield gains would not have been possible without NATO allies’ support. And he appealed to the more strident anti-China sentiment that runs through both major U.S. political parties.

A victorious Russia, he said, would “be bad for all of us in Europe and North America, in the whole of NATO, because that will send a message to authoritarian leaders — not only Putin but also China — that by the use of brutal military force they can achieve their goals.”

Spain to send new military aid package to Ukraine
Ukraine will receive a new military aid package from Spain, including air defence systems, the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has said.

In a statement on Twitter, Mr Kuleba said he had assured Spain's foreign minister Jos Manuel Albares that Ukraine would "always remember that Spain stood with us during the most difficult time" following the new aid package.

It comes after the US said it would provide $275 million in additional military assistance to Ukraine, including arms, munitions and equipment.

Last week, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said: "We are also working to provide Ukraine with the air defence capabilities it needs with the two initial US -provided NASAMS ready for delivery to Ukraine next month and we are working with allies and partners to enable delivery of their own air defence systems to Ukraine."

Russia says five nuclear powers teetering on 'brink of direct armed conflict'
Russia's foreign ministry has said it fears the five declared nuclear powers were teetering "on the brink of a direct armed conflict".

In a statement, the ministry added that the West must stop "encouraging provocations with weapons of mass destruction, which can lead to catastrophic consequences".

Western capitals have said Moscow is behind a ramping up of nuclear rhetoric since Russia invaded Ukraine in February - most recently by repeatedly accusing Kyiv of planning to use a radioactive "dirty bomb" without offering evidence.

Kyiv has denied having any such plan.

Moscow said it stood by a joint declaration issued together with the US, China, Britain and France in January affirming their joint responsibility for avoiding a nuclear war.

Vladimir Putin has appeared on several occasions to threaten a nuclear strike in connection with the war in Ukraine, and Moscow has repeatedly said its military doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons if Russia's territorial integrity is under threat.

White House: North Korea covertly shipping 'significant number' of artillery shells to Russia
The White House says North Korea is covertly shipping a "significant number" of artillery shells to Russia to support Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby North Korea "is covertly supplying" the ammunition to Russia, but added that"we're still monitoring this to determine whether the shipments are actually received."

He said the US believes North Korea is "trying to make it appear as though they're being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa".

He did not provide a specific estimate on the quantity of ammunition being sent.

Mr Kirby insisted that North Korean shipments are "not going to change the course of the war".

The White House would not specify the mode of transportation or whether the US or other nations would attempt to interdict the shipments to Russia.

Like I said it's becoming a drone and cyber war modern warfare. It's still shrouded in mystery, but reports have emerged of the use of drone boats in a recent attack on the Russian Black Sea fleet.

Ukraine war: What are Iranian kamikaze drones and will the US send the deadly MQ-9 Reaper?

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...-us-send-the-deadly-mq-9-reaper-12737283

And the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role goes to --- Volodymyr Zelenskyy ! ! ! (video)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590089376138416128

Zelensky is doing great things for his country Putin underestimated him he thought he was a clown.

Putin will not attend G20 summit in person, Russian embassy says

https://apnews.com/article/putin-bi...donesia-5f6fd062f8f49f384f7b72e2f6245800

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia next week, an Indonesian government official said Thursday, avoiding a possible confrontation with the United States and its allies over his war in Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other world leaders are to attend the two-day summit in Bali that starts Nov. 15.

Several people suggested that Putin feared he would be killed.
Xi and Biden did a good job today it's a first step the 2 most powerful countries have to keep talking.

Poland Calls a Crisis Meeting After Grain Plant Explosion

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/world/europe/poland-explosion-ukraine-missile-strike.html

And so it begins. Pray for the world lol

Atmosphere of crisis in Poland after deaths by 'Russian missiles', NATO holds emergency session
The specter of NATO being pulled even further into the war between Ukraine and Russia has moved one step closer now that two Russian missiles reportedly landed in the Polish village of Przewodów on Tuesday evening. Two people were killed in the process. NATO will hold an emergency session on Wednesday.

US officials now admit blast in Poland caused by stray missile fired by Ukraine

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1592774546364727296

Zelensky denies it, it's possible NATO allies want to down play the incident. Anyhow it's still a serious matter when rockets hit EU territory.

MH17: Three guilty as court finds Russia-controlled group downed airliner

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63637625.amp

Iran protesters set fire to Ayatollah Khomeini's ancestral home

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-...e-to-ayatollah-khomeini-s-ancestral-home

Poland Says It Will Not Allow Russian Delegation At OSCE Talks

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rferl.org/amp/poland-osce-talks-russia-delegation/32137323.html

Zelensky asks NATO to protect nuclear power plants from Russian 'sabotage'

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...a-nuclear-plant-after-madness-of-attacks

Weapons shortages spark tough choices for Ukraine’s allies

https://www.defensenews.com/pentago...spark-tough-choices-for-ukraines-allies/

On both sides already 100.000 deaths and wounded and this terrible war will continue for a long time, the west can't stop and Putin idem ditto.

That's pretty big I can imagine the west is helping the protesters.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Crimea is the main strategic prize in this war, for both sides, for who holds it controls the Black Sea and the entrance to the Sea of Azov. And the cherry on the icing that is Crimea is Sevastopol, the main naval port.

NATO commits to future Ukraine membership, drums up aid

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-nato-europe-romania-4b073dd620cad097f22106e6a29c859c

The Western countries should give Ukraine Patriot missiles to defend themselves. The weapon system can disable helicopters, manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

300 days of war now Zelensky likely makes a visit to Washington DC today.

NewsWorldEurope
Putin claims ‘Satan II’ hypersonic missile will be ready for deployment soon in speech to military chiefs
Leader says no financial limits on military spending, as he complains Nato is was using its full capabilities against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-speech-today-russia-ukraine-b2249292.html%3famp

Close friend of Putin lashes out at wealthy 'easygoing' Russians at war
A powerful Russian, owner of Wagner's private army Yevgeny Prigozhin, has lashed out at wealthy compatriots for their lack of commitment to Russia's war against Ukraine. In a television interview, President Vladimir Putin's closest confidant portrayed the so-called oligarchs (influential business people) and other wealthy as easy-going faint-hearted.

"They all want to dive into a heated pool in the evening and have fun," Prigozhin complained in an interview with Russian state television RT. The government should take everything away from these Russians as soon as possible. Then they would also be willing to contribute to the battle and to support the troops at the front, the Wagner boss reasoned. "At some point you have to realize that you have to give up everything you have, from the world of temptations, the restaurants, spas, dachas, swimming pools."

Prigozhin's interview is remarkable. For a long time, the Putin accomplice did not even appear in front of cameras. On Saturday he was already at a funeral of a Wagner mercenary who died in Ukraine. The American Institute for War Studies sees his presence at the funeral and the interview as attempts to gain respect and influence in Russian society.

Haha Lavrov has lost so much credibility the last months, he once was considered a moderate and intelligent diplomat.

Russia's Lavrov: Either Ukraine fulfils Moscow's proposals or our army will decide

Dec 27 (Reuters) - Moscow's proposals for settlement in Ukraine are well known to Kyiv and either Ukraine fulfils them for their own good or the Russian army will decide the issue, TASS agency quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying.

"Our proposals for the demilitarization and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia's security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy," the state news agency quoted Lavrov as saying late on Monday.

"The point is simple: Fulfil them for your own good. Otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army."

Moscow has been calling its invasion in Ukraine a "special military operation" to "demilitarise" and "denazify" its neighbour. Kyiv and its Western allies call it an imperial-style aggression to grab land.

In September, Moscow proclaimed it had annexed four provinces of Ukraine - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - after holding so-called referendums that were rejected as bogus and illegal by Kyiv and its allies.

On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was open to negotiations and blamed Kyiv and its Western backers for a lack of talks, a stance Washington has previously dismissed as posturing amid persistent Russian attacks.

Lavrov told TASS that when it comes to how long the conflict will last, "the ball is in the regime's court and Washington behind it."

There is no end in sight to the war, which has entered its 11th month and which has killed thousands, displaced millions and turned cities into rubble.

Kyiv has ruled out conceding any land to Russia in return for peace, and publicly demands Russia relinquish all territory. Moscow has insisted it is pursing "demilitarisation" and "denazification" but in reality its aims have not been fully defined.

Putin bans Russian oil exports to countries that implement price cap

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...hat-imposed-price-cap-decree-2022-12-27/

Italy pledges continued support for Ukraine - and why it matters
Italy has pledged its continued support for Kyiv and reiterated its commitment to achieving a "just peace" for Ukraine.

There has been much talk in recent months that Vladimir Putin is hoping that, in time, those supporting Ukraine militarily and financially will grow weary with the cost.

Support for Ukraine has been a contentious topic within Italy's ruling coalition, which includes Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini's League and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia parties.

Ms Meloni is a staunch supporter of Kyiv, while her allies Mr Salvini and Mr Berlusconi have been much more ambiguous due to their historical ties with Russia and President Putin.

But in a statement following a phone call between Ms Meloni and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Italian government said: "Meloni renewed the Italian government's full support for Kyiv in the political, military, economic and humanitarian fields, to repair energy infrastructure and (to work) for the future reconstruction of Ukraine."

Xi has to be careful China doesn't want to get dragged into the conflict by Putin they need Europe for business.

The Ukrainian Army and a growing number of posts on pro-Russian social media have suggested that hundreds of recently mobilized Russian troops died in a New Year's attack on a makeshift barracks in a suburb of the occupied city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

If such a scale of casualties is confirmed, it could represent one of the deadliest single incidents for the Russian side since the all-out invasion began 10 months ago and another potential rallying point for Ukraine and its international supporters in the conflict.

RFE/RL is unable to corroborate battlefield accounts in areas of the heaviest fighting, and there was no confirmation from Russian officials of the alleged incident.

But expressions of shock and anger by Russians online about the incident and the apparent failure of the Russian military to guard an occupied vocational school where the purported recruits were gathered suggested that even normally pro-Kremlin Telegram groups were acknowledging a setback.

Some of the Russian groups suggested the shelling was the result of an attack by Ukraine with a high-precision HIMARS rocket.

#HIMARSoCLOCK visit on school 19 in #Makiivka, Donetsk region official number is " 63 " dead and + 250 wounded so the reality is 630 dead

https://twitter.com/Htx_fella_osint/status/1610012103133347843

Police: 25 torture chambers discovered in liberated areas of Kharkiv Oblast
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 2, 2023 6:33 pm

Investigators have discovered 25 torture chambers in the liberated areas of the northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, head of the regional police Volodymyr Tymoshko reported on Jan. 2.

Tymoshko described detention conditions of civilians as “inhumane,” reporting that Russian troops allegedly used electric shocks for torture and broken people’s fingers.

According to him, 920 bodies of civilians allegedly killed by Russian troops, including 25 children, were found since Sept. 7, and 656 bodies were identified.

In total, 1,699 civilians, including 74 children, were killed, and 2,596 were injured in Kharkiv Oblast since the start of the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, the official said, adding that 9,617 buildings were damaged or destroyed in the oblast due to Russia’s attacks.

As of Jan. 2, the Ukrainian military liberated 340 settlements in the oblast.

After many years of major cuts in defense Netherlands and most NATO countries now heavily invest in the army. Here we have 4 army units: the Royal Army, the Royal Navy, the Royal Air Force and the Royal Marechaussee.

NATO has become so powerful with 30 countries, although Australia is not a member, it has cooperated with NATO forces.

Zelensky is begging for more tanks, The U.S. and the Netherlands are financing upgrades to nearly 100 older tanks destined for the Ukrainian army. Germany is thinking about sending Leopards that would be big one of the best.

I'm sure Ukraine gets Leopard and Challenger tanks soon, Europe knows it has to!

The Russian army has - not for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine - the necessary changes of the guard at the top of defense this week. Sergei Soerovikin, who has been in charge of the offensive in Ukraine since October 2022, has to stand still. The current Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valeri Gerasimov will take over his duties, the Ministry of Defense reports.

In the statement, the Russian ministry says that Gerasimov has been appointed "commander of joint forces" in Ukraine to replace Soerovikin. The latter took office in October, but will now be the vice commander. According to Reuters, the ministry points to the "broadening of assignments", "the need for closer interaction" between the various army units and "improvement of the quality and effectiveness of the management of the Russian army" as an explanation for the replacement.

Putin's discontent with the regular army top has also to do with the Wagner group his favorites.

Wow the US army unloaded 1,275 tanks and other military equipment in the port of Vlissingen, Netherlands on Wednesday.
Not for Ukraine but to protect the Eastern border of Europe what a powerplay!

High-ranking Wagner Group member seeks asylum in Norway

https://apnews.com/article/russia-government-norway-asylum-6a427312ad96ad5398c8a4a03fd7b128

Patriots will be send and British tanks the coming months will be a big battle.

Russian oligarchs already lost 89 billion euros on sanctions against Russia, and Roman Abramovich is the biggest loser

The sharply diminished wealth of the richest oligarchs has everything to do with the harsh sanctions imposed on them by the West since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. Converted, those oligarchs have lost 308 million euros a day since the start of the war.

The biggest loser is Roman Abramovich, former owner of the London football club Chelsea. He saw more than half of his fortune, 57 percent, go up in smoke. He now owns 'only' 7.8 billion dollars.

Under intense pressure, Germany decides to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, The United States is likely to announce today that it will supply Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks, the Wall Street Journal reported .

Ukraine will now push for F-16 fighter jets, government adviser says

https://thehill.com/homenews/383029...16-fighter-jets-government-adviser-says/

Now that Ukraine is finally getting the tanks it wants, it’s already looking for the next big thing — fighter jets

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/now-th...ing-for-the-next-big-thing-fighter-jets/

Western intelligence is def supporting them.

Russian saboteurs seek to hamper Putin’s war machine
Anti-Putin activists try to slow down Russia’s war in Ukraine and say they are willing to step up their violence.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/25/russian-saboteurs-seek-to-hamper-putins-war-machine

The websites of German airports have been hit by cyberattacks instigated by a Russian “hacker group”, authorities said Thursday.

https://airlive.net/breaking-a-cyberattack-is-targeting-several-websites-of-german-airports/

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday repeated a claim that neo-Nazis were committing crimes in Ukraine as the world marked the Holocaust.

Macron says will not rule out France sending fighter jets to Ukraine

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...rson-kyiv-calls-for-faster-arms-supplies

INTERNATIONAL
Former Putin aide: Coup a ‘real possibility’

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehil...-putin-aide-coup-a-real-possibility/amp/

Reuters: US may send long-range missiles to Ukraine
By ANP/upday
February 1, 2023, 7:16 AM

The United States is preparing new military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include long-range missiles for the first time, Reuters news agency reports based on talks with two senior US government officials. The package, worth more than 2 billion dollars (1.84 billion euros), will also include ammunition and other weapons.

The military aid is expected to be announced later this week, the officials said. It also supposedly contains "support material" for Patriot air defense systems, precision-guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons.

A significant portion of the package, more than $1.7 billion (1.56 billion euros), would come from a fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). This allows the government to order the weapons from the arms industry instead of obtaining them from existing US arms stockpiles.

The money from the USAI would be used to purchase a new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), with a range of 150 kilometers. The US has rejected requests from, among others, arms manufacturer Boeing to send the so-called ATACMS missile, with a range of 297 kilometers, to Ukraine.

Other assistance would include mine-resistant vehicles (MRAPs), guided multiple missile systems (GMLRS) and munitions.

Has the Russian Offensive Begun?
Ukraine is bracing for a major escalation in the Donbas.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-trade.html

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday that Russia is preparing to mobilize more than 200,000 troops, while the UK ministry of defense said in December that Putin had been presented with plans to expand Russia's military by around 30%, to 1.5 million active personnel.

Russian students, people without combat experience, the elderly, and those with health issues were among those who had been called up to fight.

The symbol of Wagner Group reminds us of the "Totenkopf" of the SS.

Russia is planning a major offensive against Kyiv by the one-year anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine.

China unsettled by Russia's 'poor performance', the Chinese are getting more worried.

CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday the intelligence agency assesses that the next six months will be "critical" for Ukraine in its fight against Russia's invasion.

Ukraine's Zelensky vows to hasten EU membership after Kyiv summit

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...-on-bloc-membership-new-russia-sanctions

Here we go!

Now that the Dutch armed forces are struggling with a screaming shortage of personnel, it is time to reintroduce conscription. That says Christen Democrat leader Wopke Hoekstra. He argues for compulsory military service, whereby 18-year-olds can choose to join the army or do social service.

Hoekstra makes his remarkable proposal today at the CDA party congress, one and a half months before the provincial elections. He wants about 200,000 young people to join the armed forces or opt for social service every year.

According to the CDA Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, the war in Ukraine 'has forced us to face the facts'. “Security, democracy and a strong society are not free, that is a hard lesson,” says Hoekstra.

It is not the first time that the CDA advocates compulsory service. But because of the war in Ukraine and the 'lack of solidarity in the Netherlands', Hoekstra believes it is now necessary to take 'a step further'.

Zelensky On Tour...

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...ault-as-ukraine-braces-for-new-offensive

Britain's King Charles will hold an audience with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his trip to the United Kingdom on Wednesday, Buckingham Palace said.

Zelensky is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and address Britain's parliament, as well as visit King Charles at his London residence.

Zelensky's trip to Britain will be his second foreign visit since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly a year ago, and comes at a time when Kyiv is urging the West for more military support.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will arrive in Paris on Wednesday evening following his visit to London, the Élysée Palace told AFP, confirming previous media reports.

Zelensky is then expected to head to Brussels for a European Union summit on Thursday.

WAR CRIMINAL

The UK is seriously considering sending fighter jets to the Ukraine.

The western allies will do that.
Ukraine need them to protect the airspace Eurofighter's, F-16's and MIG's.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...travel-together-to-eu-summit-in-brussels

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that his country has intercepted plans by Russian secret services to destroy Moldova.

Speaking to European Union leaders in Brussels, Zelensky said he recently told Moldovan President Maia Sandu about the alleged scheme. “I have informed her that we have intercepted the plan of the destruction of Moldova by the Russian intelligence," Zelensky said through a translator.

The Ukrainian president said the documents showed “who, when and how" the plan would "break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova". Zelensky said the plan was very similar to the one devised by Russia to take over Ukraine.

Fury in Ukraine as Elon Musk’s SpaceX limits Starlink use for drones

A senior Ukrainian presidential aide has reacted with anger after Elon Musk’s SpaceX said it had taken steps to prevent its Starlink satellite communications service from controlling drones, which are critical to Kyiv’s forces in fighting off the Russian invasion.

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s chief operating officer, said at a conference in the US that the surprise decision had been taken because it had never been the company’s intention to allow Starlink to be used “for offensive purposes”.

That prompted an immediate complaint on Thursday morning from Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukraine’s president, Volodymr Zelenskiy, who argued that Musk’s business had failed to recognise Ukraine’s right to self-defence.

When will get the Ukraine version of "MiG Alley"???

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MiG_Alley

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Poland has been living with the consequences: 8 million Ukrainians have crossed the border into Polish territory since last February and the majority of NATO assistance is delivered through Poland, which shares a 535-kilometre-long border with Ukraine. With the prospect of a new Russian spring offensive in Ukraine on everyone’s mind, Poland is acting as if it is preparing for a war.

If Poland’s support for Ukraine has been seemingly limitless, it comes from a deeply rooted belief that if Russia is not defeated, Poland itself will become a target. Security concerns have led Poland to modernize its army and boost its defence spending to up to 4 percent of its GDP this year, the highest percentage among all NATO countries, according to Prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...cerns-drive-poland-s-support-for-ukraine

United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately
Reuters
MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies.

"U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately," the U.S. embassy in Moscow said. "Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions."

"Do not travel to Russia," it added.

"Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, singled out U.S. citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence," the embassy said.

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Ukrainian soldiers train on Leopard tanks in Poland
Ukrainian soldiers who have arrived at a Polish military base straight from the front line have praised the Leopard battle tanks whose ins and outs they have been learning under the watchful eye of allied instructors.

“As of today, I can say that the machine is very high quality, very good,” Ukrainian army Major Vadym Khodak told reporters attending the training showcase in the southwestern village of Swietoszow.

“And what I like is that our soldiers like it very much,” he said of the 105 Ukrainian soldiers who are receiving tank training from Polish, Canadian and Norwegian instructors.

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Norway says Russia poses main security threat to Europe
Norway’s intelligence agencies see Russia as posing the main security threat to the country and to the remainder of Europe, the Nordic nation’s defence minister says.

“Russia today poses the biggest threat to Norwegian and European security, and the confrontation with the West will be long-lasting,” Bjorn Arild Gram predicted.

Gram made the remarks after Norway’s government received annual threat assessments from the country’s three security services: the domestic and foreign intelligence agencies and the Norwegian National Security Authority, or NSM.

The deputy head of the foreign Norwegian Intelligence Service, Lars Nordrum, said Norway’s oil and gas installations could be targeted by Russian sabotage. NSM head Sofie Nystrøm warned that “all of Europe will suffer” if Norwegian gas and oil installations were hit.

Dutch F-35s intercept three Russian military aircraft over Poland - Netherlands' defence ministry
Reuters
Feb 14 (Reuters) - Two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft over Poland and escorted them out, the Netherlands' defence ministry said in a statement late on Monday.

"The then unknown aircraft approached the Polish NATO area of responsibility from Kaliningrad," according to Reuters' translation of the ministry's statement.

Kaliningrad is a Russian Baltic coast enclave located between NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania.

"After identification, it turned out to be three aircraft: a Russian IL-20M Coot-A that was escorted by two Su-27 Flankers. The Dutch F-35s escorted the formation from a distance and handed over the escort to NATO partners."

The Il-20M Coot-A is NATO's reporting name for the Russian Ilyushin Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft while the Su-27 Flankers are NATO's reporting name for the Sukhoi Su-28 fighter aircraft.

Russia's defence ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for a comment.

The Netherlands' defence ministry said that eight Dutch F-35s are stationed in Poland for February and March.

The 155th Marine Brigade destroyed at Voehledar
Vladimir Putin suffered one of his most humiliating losses in Ukraine recently . An elite Russian brigade was decimated near Voehledar, a mining town in Donetsk.

Rishi Sunak pushes for Ukraine charter and long-range missiles for Kyiv

The Prime Minister said he hoped the coming Nato summit in Vilnius would build long-term assurances. "Our aim should be to forge a new charter in Vilnius to help protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression," he said.

Mr Sunak said Ukraine's forces had reached an inflection point in the battle against Russian troops and called on fellow leaders at the summit to “double down” on military support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/wor...-standard-capabilities-rishi-sunak-says/

The west has backed Ukraine to a degree Vladimir Putin, and the west itself, never expected, it's a terrible brutal war with trences like WWI. One year now and still no end in sight.

Zelensky knows the west may get tired now we are not used to this kind of warfare in Europe anymore.

US: China considering military aid to Russia
The United States has information that China is 'seriously considering' providing military aid to Russia. That said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after a meeting with China's top diplomat Wang Yi in Munich. The US warns China that this will create a "serious problem" in their relations.

Biden planned to meet for extended discussions with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials, he said in a statement.

Biden's also plans to meet in Poland with leaders of the Bucharest Nine, a group of eastern NATO allies formed in 2015 in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea.

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...t-signalling-strong-us/story?id=97328622

It's a historic visit and a big signal to Russia and China.

What does Biden's visit to Ukraine mean - and how will Russia spin it?
Sky's experts assess US president's trip to Kyiv

https://news.sky.com/story/what-doe...sess-us-presidents-trip-to-kyiv-12815934

Fresh from a surprise visit to Kyiv, US President Joe Biden rallied NATO allies in Poland on Tuesday to stress that the United States is squarely behind Ukraine and committed to bolstering the alliance's eastern flank. Earlier, Russia's Vladimir Putin said Moscow would suspend its participation in the last remaining arms control treaty with Washington as part of an anti-Western speech delivered days before the anniversary of his Ukraine offensive.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...lling-speeches-one-year-into-ukraine-war

Chinese top diplomat visits Russia

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang says he is very concerned that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate "out of control". “We call on certain countries to immediately stop pouring oil on the fire,” Qin said in a speech.

Qin's statements come in the same week that top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, who until recently was foreign minister, is in Moscow. According to the Kremlin, there is much to discuss with the Chinese guest. The top Chinese diplomat would talk about the possibilities of ending the war with Ukraine through negotiations and a peace agreement. Beijing and Moscow entered into a "borderless" friendship last year and maintain close ties. China has not condemned the invasion.

During a stopover in Hungary on Monday, Wang called for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Chinese top diplomat is expected to explore the possibilities of a peace agreement in Moscow. On Friday, exactly one year after the invasion, President Xi Jinping was due to deliver a "peace speech".

China is eyeing the doubling of Japan's defense budget with suspicion
China and Japan will hold security talks today and tomorrow for the first time in four years.
After 2019, things went quiet between Beijing and Tokyo. The corona pandemic was in between, but in the meantime tensions were also rising. About the disputed islands in the East China Sea, about defense exercises, and also about the war in Ukraine.
'It will never work out politically, but they need each other economically.' Every year, USD 300 billion is exchanged between the two countries.
Even when it comes to the war in Ukraine, the two are diametrically opposed. China's top foreign representative, Wang Yi, was in Moscow this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While Japan announced that it would support Ukraine with the enormous amount of 5.5 billion euros.

Lavrov’s statement has crowd burst into laughter in India.

It's not going well for Putin. Russia is believed to have suffered tens of thousands of casualties during its latest wave of assaults in Ukraine. Hundreds of Russians are fighting on the side of Ukraine in the battle for Bakhmut, The New York Times reported.

Russian mercenary Wagner group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has accused Vladimir Putin of cutting him off over his call for resupplying arms and ammunition in the grinding battle in eastern Ukraine.

“To get me to stop asking for ammunition, all the hotlines to offices, to departments etc have been cut off from me. But the real humdinger is that they’ve also blocked agencies from making decisions [related to Wagner],” the private Russian military’s leader said on Telegram.

ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes
Arrest warrants issued for Russian leader and his children’s rights commissioner for ‘unlawful deportation’ of Ukrainian children

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...-putin-arrest-warrant-ukraine-war-crimes

China need to step up they should play a leading role in bringing peace with Iran, Syria, North Korea, Russia they could make a difference.

Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Moscow helped both give the impression of a united front, but there are underlying tensions, for example Russian concerns around Chinese economic influence and interests not only in Kazakhstan but across Central Asia.

The Partisans will never give up.

Partisan groups began to be organized in mid-2022. These groups have been involved in intelligence-gathering, sabotage, and assassinations.

Finland has become a Nato member it has a huge border with Russia.

Putin signs law enabling digital mobilization
Updated 1 min ago
8 min ago
ABROAD _Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Friday that allows mobilization orders to be sent digitally.

Russian media report this. According to the new law, a reservist can now be mobilized electronically, via the Russian version of what we call DigiD. Until now, mobilization orders have been hand-delivered, but many Russians chose to ignore the call, move or flee the country.

A citizen who refuses to receive the call or cannot be reached is in violation. Russian law imposes severe penalties on those who evade mobilization.

Earlier this week, the State Duma also gave the green light to the new law.

https://apnews.com/article/japan-group-of-seven-foreign-ministers-7153e446eef75936b8ec731950eedb8c

The G-7 envoys from Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Italy and the European Union have underlined that their meeting in Karuizawa, Japan marks a crucial moment in the world’s response to Russian and Chinese aggression, two crises that are seen as challenges to the post-World War II rules-based international order. Global efforts to confront the matters at the United Nations have been stymied by Chinese and Russian intransigence on the Security Council.

“There can be no impunity for war crimes and other atrocities such as Russia’s attacks against civilians and critical civilian infrastructure,” the ministers said.

“We remain committed to intensifying sanctions against Russia, coordinating and fully enforcing them,” the communique said, and would support “for as long as it takes” Ukraine as it defends itself.

The foreign ministers’ document was prepared as a template for global leaders to use at a G-7 summit that will be held in Hiroshima next month, and included language about Iran, Myanmar, Afghanistan, nuclear proliferation and other “grave threats.”

It's all about Geopolitics Putin, Xi, Biden, Macron, Scholz. We get a new world order.

The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a new phase. According to experts, the Russian spring offensive has failed. Meanwhile, Ukraine is preparing for a counter-offensive. The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force threatens to withdraw his troops from the key battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine as casualty rates mount. Ukraine’s military authorities say Russian forces have been unable to cut their supply routes to the front-line city.

Andriy Yusov, a Ukrainian military intelligence official speaking to RBC Ukraine, says more than 10 tanks of oil products with capacity of around 40,000 tonnes were destroyed in an explosion on the Russian-occupied port of Sevastopol on Saturday,

Speaking to RBC Ukraine, Yusov did not claim Kyiv was responsible for the explosion, instead describing the blast as “God’s punishment” for a Russian strike on a Ukrainian city on Friday.

Chinese role in mediation ‘not unrealistic’
Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk says the Chinese are “pursuing their own interests, but a peaceful solution and end of hostilities are more in line with Beijing’s interests than this huge never-ending earthquake for the entire world order”.

Russia
Russia accuses Ukraine of trying to kill Vladimir Putin with Kremlin drone strike
Kremlin says two drones used in alleged attack were disabled by Russian defences

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...vladimir-putin-with-kremlin-drone-strike

Russian ex-president Medvedev calls for "physical elimination of Zelensky and his clique"
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has called on Telegram to eliminate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He did so in response to the emergence of footage showing several drones exploding over the Moscow Kremlin .

According to Russia, the images were taken last night and involved an "attempted assassination of President Putin" that must be retaliated "at an appropriate time and place". Ukraine, however, denies any involvement.

The chairman of the State Duma of Russia - Vyacheslav Volodin - has also used strong words to condemn the attack. He called it an "attack on Russia" on Telegram and called for the use of weapons "capable of stopping and destroying the terrorist regime in Kiev". He also said there can be no negotiations with Zelensky "after the attack".

Russian state media, meanwhile, are reporting on the incident, telling the same story as the Kremlin. Margarita Simonyan, the head of the Russian state channel RT, among others, quickly added fuel to the fire after the images emerged: "Maybe it will really start now," she tweeted.

Simonyan makes no secret of her hatred of the West. For example, she already warned that Russia would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against opponents or unleash a worldwide famine. She has said several times that the war in Ukraine will end in a "frightening way".

If it's up to Putin Poland, east Germany and the other eastern countries will also come under influence of Russia.

Prigozhin is furious his Wagner Group has been slaughtered they will leave Bakhmut next week, Top Russian defense officials to blame.

Russia will put nuclear weapons in Belarus. It's cold war all over again.

Will Russia be the next to surrender?

UK and USA will again give a huge amount of long distance weapons worth billions.
This will really hurt the Russians.

Zelensky, in private, plots bold attacks inside Russia, leak shows
THE DISCORD LEAKS | U.S. intercepts reveal the Ukrainian’s leader’s aggressive instincts, a marked contrast to his public-facing image as the stoic statesman weathering Russia’s brutal onslaught

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

Zelensky is no softie today he was at the Arab League looking for support.

Russia claimed on Saturday to have fully captured the smashed eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which would mark an end to the longest and bloodiest battle of the 15-month war.

The assault on the largely levelled city was led by troops from the Wagner Group of mercenaries, whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said earlier in the day that his troops had finally pushed the Ukrainians out of the last built-up area inside the city.

Taking Bakhmut - which Russia refers to by its Soviet-era name of Artyomovsk - would represent Moscow's first big victory in the conflict in more than 10 months.

"As a result of offensive actions by Wagner assault units, supported by artillery and aviation of the Southern Group of Forces, the liberation of Artyomovsk has been completed," the Russian defence ministry said in a one-line statement.

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated troops on capturing the city and said those who had distinguished themselves would be given awards, domestic Russian news agencies reported.

Drones have attacked Moscow again second time first was on the Kremlin this one on a wealthy neighbourhood where Putin also has a huge house. Ukraine denies involvement, but I don't believe that Ukrainian secret services are not involved. Don't forget those guys were also trained in soviet times and should not be underestimated. It shows they can hit the Russians in the heart of their empire.

EU says attack on dam in southern Ukraine ‘war crime’
European Council president vows to hold perpetrators accountable, send more aid to those affected by flood

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukr...m-in-southern-ukraine-war-crime-/2915364

US had intelligence of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipelines: Report
Washington received information from close ally that Ukrainian military planned attack 3 months before it happened: Washington Post

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukr...ack-nord-stream-pipelines-report/2915933

Nato members may send troops to Ukraine, warns former alliance chief
Security guarantees and membership path needed at Nato summit to avoid escalation, says Anders Rasmussen

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-to-ukraine-warns-former-alliance-chief

Ukraine has cultivated a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia, US officials believe they have developed sabotage cells made up of a mix of pro-Ukrainian sympathizers and operatives well-trained in this kind of warfare. Ukraine is believed to have provided them with Ukrainian-made drones.

This is a true test.

Ukrainian forces mounted a major attack early Thursday in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, as Ukraine’s Army went on the offensive on multiple fronts in an operation that carries high stakes for Kyiv and its Western allies.

A senior U.S. official said that Thursday’s attack appeared to be a main thrust of a much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive. For months, Kyiv officials have been mobilizing new units, gathering advanced weapons and training for what its leaders have billed as a major attack aimed at pushing Russian forces back and retaking occupied territory.

The advancing Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia included German Leopard 2 tanks and American Bradley fighting vehicles, a strong indication that the counteroffensive was underway in several locations, according to the official, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential briefings on operational details.

LOL

Vladimir Putin was never the Soviet super spy he'd like us to believe. He was merely a KGB 'errand boy,' report says
Nathan Rennolds
Mon, June 5, 2023 at 1:47 AM GMT+2·2 min read
\\
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been portrayed as an elite KGB intelligence officer in the 1980s.

But a new report from Der Spiegel suggests he was never the super spy he was thought to be.

His role involved mainly "banal" administrative tasks such as sorting through travel applications.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was likely never the elite Soviet spy that the world has been led to believe, an investigaton by the German news outlet Der Spiegel has revealed.

Stories of Putin's exploits as an intelligence officer during the 1980s vary, and it is an era somewhat shrouded in mystery, as he has never commented on the period himself.

But many stories have painted him as a heroic figure, who, among other things, single-handedly defended the KGB's offices from looters and carried out top-secret secret missions such as meeting with members of the Red Army Faction, a terrorist group that wreaked havoc in West Germany and committed a series of kidnappings and assassinations.

But according to Der Spiegel's report, the majority of Putin's work was actually limited to "banal" administrative tasks.

Citing one of Putin's former colleagues at the KGB's Dresden office, it says his "work consisted primarily of endlessly reviewing applications for West German relatives' visits or searching for potential informants among foreign students at Dresden University."

The report says that Putin is rarely mentioned in Stasi — the name of the East German secret police — records. In those that do reference him, it is only in regards to things like his birthday or administrative tasks, none provide evidence to back up the stories mentioned previously.

Horst Jehmlich, a former Stasi officer who also worked in Dresden, told Der Spiegel that Putin was nothing more than an "errand boy."

Putin worked for the KGB, the Soviet Union's intelligence service, for nearly two decades. He moved to Dresden, in East Germany, in 1985 — a time when the country was on its last legs.

Just four years later, the Berlin Wall fell, marking the beginning of the end of the Cold War and taking a big step towards the reunification of Germany in 1990.

Officially he retired from active KGB service with the rank of lieutenant colonel.

But Oleg Kalugin, a former high-ranking KGB officer and fierce critic of Putin, told an interview with RFE/RL in 2015 that the would-be leader of Russia had lied and was "just a major."

Scholz plans to speak to Putin 'soon'
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Scholz made the comments while speaking at the German Protestant Church Congress.
The chancellor said that he already spoke with Putin before the start of the war and intended "to do so again soon."
Scholz reiterated Berlin's position that the withdrawal of Russian troops would be a precondition for negotiations with Moscow, saying that this would be the only way to ensure a "fair peace."
"It's not reasonable to force Ukraine to approve and accept the raid that Putin has perpetrated and that parts of Ukraine become Russian just like that," Scholz added.
The chancellor said that he considered that Berlin had made the right decision in acting "in a coordinated manner" with its partners on Ukraine. He added that Germany felt committed to this principle since the start of the war early last year.
Responding to shouts from the crowd urging the chancellor to "negotiate," Scholz said: "Negotiating is OK. The question is: who negotiates with whom and about what?"

Dutch intelligence tipped CIA on alleged Ukraine plan to attack Nord Stream -NOS
Reuters
June 13, 20234:42 PM GMT+2Updated an hour ago

The logo of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project is seen on a pipe at the Chelyabinsk pipe rolling plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia, February 26, 2020. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

AMSTERDAM, June 13 (Reuters) - A Dutch intelligence agency tipped off the CIA about an alleged Ukrainian plan in June 2022 to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline, Dutch national broadcaster NOS reported on Tuesday.

The NOS report, which was compiled with help from leading German media outlets, did not identify its sources.

It said that the Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD had warned the CIA of the existence of such a plan, leading to a warning from Washington to Kyiv not to attack the pipeline.

Advertisement · Scroll to continue
Unexplained explosions ruptured both Nord Stream 1 and the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipelines, carrying gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, in September.

The blasts occurred in the economic zones of Sweden and Denmark. Both countries said the explosions were deliberate, but have yet to determine who was responsible. Those countries and Germany are investigating.

Washington and NATO called the incident "an act of sabotage". Moscow accused investigators of dragging their feet and trying to conceal who was behind the attack. Ukraine denies responsibility.

How military control of Ukraine has changed

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/c..._control_quad_13_06_23_2x640-nc.png.webp

NATO and USA shouldn't fuck around fuck those Russians we could end this war in a few weeks lol.
Bomb the shit.

bomb that shit ?!
if the west will take action then you risk iran and china getting involved too
which may results in III World War.
it's not a game.

Just kidding Meyer but that sort of talk you hear on the Russian side like bombing the port of Rotterdam.

they just don't know how to take the humiliation of this defeat.
russia being exposed as the biggest bullshit it's hard for them to take....
the longer the war continues the better it is for the world
because russia will slowly get worse by all means.
they are just a country with nuclear weapon that's all.

iran and china are the biggest concern to the west.

I agree, China wants world influence but doesn't want a big conflict with the West. European investments in China are gigantic and Chinese interests in Europe ever growing, a whopping 71 percent of German companies plan to expand their investments in China. Volkswagen, for example has more than 40 factories in the country.

China doesn't even have a single nuclear aircraft carrier. They have no oil, they get most of their oil from the middle east through the Straits of Malacca, which the US could shut down at will. The United States ensured, after WWII, that we would remain the premier power on the planet for a long time. Saudi Arabia is protected by US Patriot missile batteries, despite all this bluster about BRICS, the Saudis know exactly who affords them the protection for then to sleep at night. China is watching the Ukrainian conflict, and is taking notice of the superiority of the Wests arsenal and the likely cost of invading Taiwan.

Daily update on the War in Ukraine.
Russian ntrenchements hamper progress in the south, Reports of the nuclear reactor in Zaporizhzhia cooling system being mined for demolition by the same Russian commander who ordered dam destroyed, 2 weeks ago.

What a coalition has Zelensky build even Pakistan, Cambodia and Sudan are helping.

List of military aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Daily update on the War in Ukraine. Ukraine launches cruise mussile to blow hole in Daryivskiy bridge to Crimea resulting in a 130 Km diversion in the logistics supply train to the Russian occupied region of Dnipro. Meanwhile, Prighozian continues to bemoan the lack of adequate supplies of munitions as he continues to attempt to build support in Moscow.

Investigation for Prigozhin mutiny

The Russian security service FSB starts a criminal investigation against the boss of the mercenary army
Wagner, Prigozhin. He is accused of calling for mutiny. Prigozhin has been raging for months against the top
bosses in the Russian military, including Defense Minister Shoigu. He says they are incompetent.

Just today, Prigozhin said that Ukraine and NATO posed no threat to Russia at all and that the war
was started under false pretenses.

Prigozhin, who started out as Putin's cook, has not personally attacked the president in any of his outbursts .

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...o-public-about-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin

Russia on edge after threats from Wagner boss Prigozhin: military vehicles ready in Moscow
Updated 3 min ago
44 minutes ago

Russia is on high alert following news that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is being prosecuted for mutiny. The army command in Moscow calls on the notorious mercenaries to comply with President Vladimir Putin's orders, as can also be seen on Russian state television. Kiev is undoubtedly watching the chaotic situation in the neighboring country, where soldiers are stationed at government buildings.

Russian TV interrupts regular programming
Earlier, Russia's state-run Channel 1 interrupted regular programming to broadcast an "emergency news bulletin".

The announcement recapped earlier official statements about Prigozhin and Wagner and said that Prigozhin's video of the alleged strike was fake and that the defence ministry denied attacking Wagner.

The emergency announcement also said that FSB - Russia's domestic intelligence agency - had launched a criminal case against Prigozhin and that President Putin was being kept informed.

What is the Wagner boss claiming?
Lets recap what Prigozhin has been saying.

He posted a series of furious recordings online on Friday, accusing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket strike on Wagner’s camps in Ukraine on Friday.

"Today they carried out a rocket strike on our rear camps, and a huge number of our comrades got killed," he said.

“They have treacherously cheated us,” he added.

The Russian defence ministry denied carrying out a rocket attack on Wagner forces.

Prigozhin then said his troops would oust Shoigu, and called on the Russian army to stand aside.

“This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” he said.

Prigozhin also claimed that Shoigu had personally directed the purported strike and then fled.

“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” he shouted.

He has since claimed his forces have crossed from Ukraine into Russia, without providing evidence.

Earlier he released a video saying Russia had had no reason to invade Ukraine and the war had been a disaster.

In the audio, Prigozhin said, without providing evidence, that Russia’s military leadership was responsible for the deaths of 2,000 fighters. He pledged to hold them to account.

Within hours, Prigozhin said in another message that he and his fighters had turned their backs on Ukraine and crossed back into Russia. He warned that “if something stands in our way, we will destroy everything that will try to stop us.”

Russia on the brink of Civil War as Wagner Forces seize control of Rostov on Don and Voronezh with about 25,000 troops and heavy weapons. Russian military carrying out necessary measures in the region according to the governor of Voronezh as troops in the southern command seem to be rallying towards Prighozhin and the Wagner forces. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are said to be massing in preparation for their counter offensive while they observe developments across the border.

Wow this is first time Putin faces a serious internal crisis.

What's been happening in Russia?
Things have been developing quickly in Russia.

Here's what has happened in the past few hours.

President Putin made a televised speech calling the challenge by the Wagner mercenary force "high treason" and a "stab in the back". He appealed for unity and said authorities were acting quickly to contain the situation
Rebelling Wagner mercenaries say they have taken control of the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, a key military site.
BBC sources also say Wagner forces have now seized military facilities in a second city - Voronezh, which is halfway between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.
Prigozhin has said he will march on the capital if top military figures don't meet with him.
Prigozhin appears to have responded to Putin in an audio message, saying his troops were not committing treason, but rather were "patriots" fighting for the future of the Motherland - calling out "corruption, lies and bureaucracy"
And the international community is starting to respond. Some countries that border Russia are building up security, while NATO says it is monitoring the situation closely.

Russia: A bunch of dump trucks full of sand are being placed at all entrances into Moscow.

More and more private jets with no declared destination or Turkey as destination appear over Moscow.
They are making a run for it

The Russian regime army has started to target random civilian cars in Voronezh. It is hell.

Girkin: "The rebels successfully bypassed Voronezh and are moving through the territory of the Lipetsk region. They boast that they shot down the forward outposts of the "Rosgvardia" and took trophies."

Strelkov says that Wagner forces passed through Voronezh and have entered Lipetsk Oblast, moving towards Moscow on the M4 highway.

Putin is at risk of losing his iron grip on power. The next 24 hours are critical

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/24/europe/russia-putin-wagner-prigozhin-analysis-intl/index.html

Wagner mercenaries enter Lipetsk region en route to Moscow

The governor of Russia's Lipetsk province said Saturday afternoon that Wagner Group mercenaries had entered the region, some 400 kilometres (250 miles) from Moscow. Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Wagner mercenaries of "treason" in a live address to the nation after the group's chief Yevgeny Prigozhin called for an armed uprising to oust the defense minister on Friday.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...f-mutiny-he-says-his-forces-enter-russia

Haha what an insane turn of events

LIVE Wagner chief says mercenaries turning back to 'avoid bloodshed'
Wagner Forces 'Halt Advance' on Moscow BBC News

Posted at 20:0420:04
What was in the agreement and how was Belarus involved?
Abdujalil Abdurasulov

Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine

Belarus strongman Aleksander Lukashenko has conducted talks with Evgeniy Prigozhin.

As a result of the negotiations that lasted for the whole day, Prigozhin has agreed to de-escalate.

Lukashenko’s press service reports the negotiations took place with Vladimir Putin’s agreement.

“Prigozhin has agreed to stop the march towards Moscow and take further steps to de-escalate the situation,” the statement says.

As part of the agreement, Wagner fighters get security guarantees.

What else was offered to Prigozhin and mercenaries is not clear.

Russia has been using the territory of Belarus to launch attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion, effectively erasing Belarus’ sovereignty.

And any signs showing that Putin’s grip on power is weaking threatens the regime in Minsk that is heavily dependent on Moscow.

Earlier today, Svitlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader who challenged Lukashenko in 2020 presidential elections, said the Wagner’s rebellion “is the best chance to kick the Russian military out from [Belarus]”.

“If we miss this chance,” she said in her video appeal, “Russia will do to us exactly what they did to Ukraine.”

Zelensky claims Putin left Moscow, Lukashenko is reported to be in Turkey.

Wagner boss to leave for Belarus and charges to be dropped - state media
Russian state media have just reported that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave for Belarus.

The reports say charges against him and his Wagner forces will be dropped by Russian authorities to avoid "bloodshed".

What could this mean for the Ukraine war?
James Nixey, head of the Russia-Eurasia programme at Chatham House, says Ukraine will profit from the crisis in Russia.

Speaking with the BBC, Nixey says Ukraine is likely to continue to "needle Russia" to try to create implosions within the country.

Nixey says today marked the worst day for Vladimir Putin in all his years of presidency.

"He's losing this [Ukraine] war," Nixey says.

"That's not to say Ukraine is finding it very easy to win... but this is not what Vladimir Putin expected so far into his presidency."

Prigozhin still has ties to some generals and the GRU/Spetsnaz, he knows if he gives up he's a dead man. The elite has never been more divided and finally see the lies about the war and how bad it's going. Chinese are also shaking their heads..

There is no way back for Prigozhin.

Moscow has stepped back from civil war with Wagner. But the danger’s not over, experts warn

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/25/...on-belarus-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

What many people call a coup attempt was actually an attempt by Prighozhin to wrest control of the Russian military from Defense Minister Zhoigu and head of Russian General command Gerasimov. In a a deal allegedly brokered by President Lukachenko, Prighozhin has been afforded safe haven in Belarus
Meanwhile, Ukranian troops advance in the Kherson region and Donbas region with gains near Bahkmut.

I watched both statements, interesting but this is far from over without Wagner the war effort takes a big hit Prigozhin just spoke of the sentiment of thousands of ordinary soldiers not just Wagner that the war is going really bad.

Belarus at risk.

According to state media, Lukashenko urged Putin not to "waste" Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Lukashenko said Wagner mercenary chief had landed in Belarus.
Wagner mercenaries might settle in Belarus, join its military!

Prighozhin is in Minsk, Belarus according to Belarus President Lukashenko yesterday, some Wagner personnel are said to be joining him as well.
Meanwhile slow progress along the Zaporizhzhian Front as Ukranian units continue probing attacks with the bridgehead at Oleshky near Lherson holding strong though fog of war limits intel.

WOW Sergei Surovikin aka "General Armageddon", who apparently supported the rebellion, has been arrested.

Putin is flexing his muscles lol. Gangster style

!

'Purge': Top Russian generals Gerasimov and Surovikin are reportedly missing following Wagner mutiny
Russian generals Sergei Surovikin and Valery Gerasimov have not been seen in public since Wagner Group mercenaries attempted to oust Russia's military command

https://www.foxnews.com/world/purge...portedly-missing-following-wagner-mutiny

I also believed he used a body double when he shook all those hands in a big crowd he never would be close to that many people that's too dangerous for him.


'No question' that Putin is using a body double after Wagner revolt - analyst
Experts argue that the stark deviation from Putin's usual behavior and security protocols points to the involvement of a body double.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-748344

Wagner officers in Syria have been arrested by the Russian authority.

Small gains along the Zaporizhzhian Front, however heavy casualties were suffered at the Oleshky bridgehead after heavy artillery strikes and Iskander missile strikes. Strong, in depth, entrenchments hamper the Ukranian offensive and it looks to be a long hard fought summer for both sides. Prighozhin visited Moscow, St. Petersburg and is in Minsk, Belarus. The Wagner camp in Belarus continues to grow and can manage 9,000 troops currently.

I found this video informative:

The Real Reason China Can't Invade Taiwan

China's reason for not supplying Russia with arms explained.

[video:youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwdht3h4xjg [/video]

China has been quit lately, some experts say Xi is worried about Putin he's losing control and that could also happen in China.

Italy has frozen 2 bn in Russia yachts, villas, funds
Bank of Italy's UIF reports on actions linked to sanctions

(ANSA) - ROME, JUL 4 - Italy has frozen luxury villas, yachts, cars and liquid assets worth around two billion euros belonging to Russian and Belarusian individuals subjected to sanctions following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the Director of the Bank of Italy's Financial Information Unit (UIF) Enzo Serata said in his annal report on Tuesday.
Serata added that, by the end of June, 170 "financial relationships" in the name of 80 individuals and worth over 330 million euros had been frozen.
The impounded assets include a 52-metre yacht belonging to Russian energy and infrastructure oligarch Gennady Timchenko and the villa near Lucca of businessman and politician Oleg Savchenko. (ANSA).

It's seems the Kremlin wants direct control over the gold, diamonds and oil: Wagner is making fortunes all over the world. In Africa more and more leaders are paying them.

Awkward: Russian And Ukrainian Soldiers Arrive At Same Nuclear Power Plant To Blow It Up And Blame On Each Other

https://babylonbee.com/news/awkward...nt-to-blow-it-up-and-blame-on-each-other

Interesting and informative, many of it's points are solid and factual. I think the new agreement with Phillipines to allow 4 bases to be built in the S. China Sea, further jeopardize China's fragile supply lines. China's biggest threat is loss of Himalayan glacier water, which if global warming continues to accelerate, can occur as soon as the end of the century.

Interesting and fun to watch, Cinese invasion of Taiwan simulation.

Action in the Donbas as Ukranian forces progress around the Klishiivka high ground overlooking Bahkmut from the south. HIMAR barrage at Donestsk and Bahkmut resulted in the destruction of munitions and oil depots in Donetsk.
Bahkmut faces encirclement by Ukranian forces as they overan an extensive trenchline system in Klishiivka .

Military TV Channel

What Are Mk 20 Rockeye II Cluster Bombs and Why Does Ukraine Want Them

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K1U_jLBfoc

What could happen if Russia blows up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant?

https://abcnews.go.com/US/happen-russia-blows-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/story?id=100846888

President Volodymyr Zelensky brought home from Turkey on Saturday five former commanders of Ukraine’s garrison in Mariupol, a highly symbolic achievement that Russia said violated a prisoner exchange deal engineered last year.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230709-%F0%9F%94%B4live-zelensky-enrages-russia-by-bringing-home-azovstal-commanders-from-turkey

Germany blocks Ukraine from joining NATO !

]Wagner Group leader and ex-convict Prigozhin has lost the respect of Russian prisoners who now think he's a 'traitor,' activist says.
Russian prisoners, the primary source of conscript recruits for Prigozhin's Wagner Military Group, have labeled the mercenary group leader a traitor after supporting his short lived mutiny. Russians don't like losers and that the word "wool" is being used in reference to him, which is slang for "traitors" who collaborate with the authorities.
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...-wagner-boss-ex-convict-prigozhin-2023-7

The Turkish government will submit Sweden's NATO membership to its parliament, says NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg. Now that Turkey has dropped its objections, Sweden is expected to join NATO soon.

The NATO summit starts in Vilnius on Tuesday.

A few days after the Wagner uprising, Prigozhin sat at the table with Putin, says Kremlin

President Putin spent hours talking late last month with Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and leader of the Wagner mercenary army, about his June 29 uprising. Five days earlier, on June 24, Wagner's armed militiamen occupied military targets in the city of Rostov-on-Don. Prigozhin advanced on Moscow, demanding the resignation of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Supreme Army Commander Valery Gerasimov.

Suddenly, Prigozhin's mercenary army halted its advance. Why exactly has not yet been clarified. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did confirm today a report from the French newspaper Libération about Putin's conversation with Prigozhin. At the meeting on the 29th, according to Peskov, there were 35 people, including Wagner's commanders. "All we can say is that the president gave his take on Wagner's performance in Ukraine, and on the events of June 24," Peskov told reporters.

Prigozhin has long been openly critical of Russia's fight in Ukraine. His Wagner troops eventually fought and succeeded in taking the city of Bachmoet. The 'march for justice' on Moscow stopped after mediation by President Lukashenko of Belarus, after which Progzhin is said to have flown to Minsk. Last week, Lukashenko said that Prigozhin is in Russia. No evidence of this has yet surfaced.

What in the World is Happening? A Fireside Chat with a Geopolitics Expert, Peter Zeihan
Ukraine & Russia & Europe are discussed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISk9ZpKM9so

Good until the very end when TDS kicks in...

Jimmy Dore's Take on sending cluster bombs to Ukraine...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DvKKTHl_D0

Soviet Menace | From The First Russian Bombers, To The Nuclear Tupolev Tu-95 Bear | Documentary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPHNmN9BaBw

Britain’s defence secretary and the US national security adviser have suggested Ukraine ought to show more gratitude for the help it has received from the west.

I agree Ukraine also has to do more about corruption and organized crime to join NATO or EU.

Wagner Turns Over 2,000 Heavy Weapons Including Tanks, SAM Systems
In the wake of his aborted mutiny last month, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Private Military Company turned over more than 2,000 weapons and pieces of equipment more than 2,500 tons of ammunition and over 20,000 small arms, the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) said on its Telegram channel Wednesday. A video showing turned over Wagner tanks and other armor, artillery pieces, land mines and boxes apparently full of munitions has also been distributed.
This list of equipment provided by the Russian MoD includes "hundreds of heavy weapons like T-90, T-80, T-72B3 tanks, Grad and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems, Pantsir surface-to-air missile systems, 2S1 Gvozdika 122 mm self-propelled artillery systems, 2S3 Akatsiya 152 mm, 2S5 Giatsint 152 mm, 2S4 Tulpan 240 mm, howitzers and anti-tank guns, mortar systems, multipurpose armored tractors, armored personnel carriers, as well as motor vehicles."

Among other items, the video released by the Russian MoD shows:

MT-LB light armored vehicles
2B9 Vasilek semi-automatic 82mm gun-mortars
TM-62 anti-tank land mines
120mm 2S9 Nona self-propelled gun-mortars
152mm D-1 towed howitzers
152mm 2S5 Giatsint-S self-propelled field guns
152mm 2A36 Giatsint-B towed field guns
trucks with 57mm S-60 anti-aircraft guns
towed anti-tank guns
AK-series rifles
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...eavy-weapons-including-tanks-sam-systems

Funny thing the Wagner group is called after Richard Wagner.

"I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it's like, victory."

Why not send some of these to Ukraine???

U.S. Marines Has a New Ship-Killing Weapon Can Destroy a Warship 100 Miles Away

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef8sQhKiYzs

It is not known exactly where Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is at the moment. But the smear campaign against him is in full swing. A photo of Prigozhin in his underpants is currently circulating on the internet.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0_J63jXwAEWmyY?format=jpg&name=medium

New mysterious death in Moscow
Putin supporter's daughter found dead in her apartment
Updated Yesterday, 20:25
Yesterday, 6:30 PM
MOSCOW - Once again there is a mysterious death among the Russian elite. Natalia Bochkareva, 44, the daughter of the late Russian politician Vasily Bochkaryov, was recently found dead in her Moscow apartment.
The woman would have felt bad the day before. The woman's body was found by the janitor, who called the police after the woman stopped opening her door. According to the Daily Mail, initial reports indicate that the death was not a violent one.
According to sources, the woman had a heart problem. Still, her death is suspicious. She is not the first of the Russian elite to die suddenly.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many generals, politicians or oligarchs have died under mysterious circumstances.

21:20 Yesterday
The Russian intelligence service FSB has arrested seven people suspected of trying to kill two prominent journalists. The five minors and two adult men allegedly planned to kill Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of Russian state television RT, and Ksenia Sobchak, a well-known TV presenter.

Russia says Ukraine is behind the assassination plot . Interfax, Russia's state news agency, claims those arrested admitted to the FSB that the order for the killings came from Kyiv and that they would receive 1.5 million Russian rubles (just under $15,000) per murder.

A court in Moscow has given permission to detain the seven at least until September 14. They are suspected of 'attempted murder motivated by nationalistic hatred'.

It would not be the first time that Russian media figures have been targeted . Earlier, a well-known journalist and a blogger were killed in bomb attacks. Both openly supported the invasion of Ukraine. A nationalist writer narrowly survived an attack on his car.

Moscow repeatedly blamed Ukraine. Kyiv denies any involvement, saying the incidents are a result of internal settlements in Russia. The Ukrainian authorities have not yet responded to these arrests.

Update from the Institute for the Study of War
Russian sources reported on July 15 that the Russian military command dismissed 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov.[
Russian sources stated that the reason for Seliverstov’s dismissal is currently unknown but speculated that it could be associated with Seliverstov’s reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers.

Seliverstov’s dismissal may be a part of an ongoing purge of insubordinate commanders by the Russian military command and may suggest that the corrosion of the Russian chain of command in Ukraine is accelerating
The Russian military command recently dismissed 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) Commander Major General Ivan Popov after he reportedly attempted to bypass Chief of the Russian General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and bring his complaints about the situation in western Zaporizhia Oblast directly to Putin.

The Russian military leadership is likely attempting to dissuade commanders from emulating recent cases of insubordination by punishing those involved in leaking Popov’s message of complaints.
Shoigu is also likely attempting to mitigate the aftermath of Popov’s leaked audio recording within the Russian government and punish Russian State Duma Deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev for the leak.
Growing insubordination will likely exacerbate existing factional divides within the Russian military and the wider Russian security sphere.
A Russian source claimed that Dyumin unsuccessfully attempted to intercede to prevent Seliverstov’s dismissal in a trip to Moscow on July 14.
Polyakov’s arrest suggests that different factions within the Kremlin and Russian security entities are exploiting the Russian information space and secret information to advance their political and financial objectives against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

If Polyakov’s affiliation with numerous insider Telegram channels is true, then it is evident that Russian officials see the Russian information space as an important source of authority that allows them to promote their interests and discredit their opponents in the eyes of their constituencies.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 15 and reportedly made limited gains.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces made limited gains south of Bakhmut near Andriivka (10km south of Bakhmut) and crossed the Siverskyi Donetsk Canal in the area.

Key Takeaways:
Russian sources reported on July 15 that the Russian military command dismissed 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov.
Seliverstov’s dismissal may be a part of an ongoing purge of insubordinate commanders by the Russian military command and may suggest that the corrosion of the Russian chain of command in Ukraine is accelerating.
The Russian military leadership is likely attempting to dissuade commanders from emulating recent cases of insubordination by punishing those involved in leaking Popov’s message of complaints.
Growing insubordination will likely exacerbate existing factional divides within the Russian military and the wider Russian security sphere.
Factions within the Russian security forces and the Kremlin appear to be fighting for control over the Russian insider information space.
Polyakov’s arrest suggests that different factions within the Kremlin and Russian security entities are exploiting the Russian information space and secret information to advance their political and financial objectives against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 15 and reportedly made limited gains.
The New York Times (NYT) reported that the Ukrainian military has adjusted its strategy to minimize Ukrainian casualties while continuing to attrit Russian forces, supporting ISW’s previous assessments.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that it developed a plan for Wagner Group personnel to train Belarusian forces as Ukrainian, Russian, and Belarusian sources continue to report that Wagner forces are moving to Belarus.
Russian authorities likely continue to forcibly integrate Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) dioceses into the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) as part of a wider religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations and made limited territorial gains near Svatove.
Ukrainian forces reportedly made limited territorial gains on Bakhmut’s southern flank, while Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made limited advances on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Donetsk City-Avdiivka line but did not make any territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border and reportedly made limited gains.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and reportedly made limited advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the completion of Russia’s spring 2023 conscription cycle on July 15.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the Kremlin launched a program to recruit young adults in Russia for service in occupation administrations in Ukraine.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

F-16's and other european jets in a few months Ukraine will get them.

Ukraine war latest: Putin control hit as attack sends 'shockwaves' across Russia
A couple has been killed and their daughter injured after explosions were reported on the bridge linking Crimea and Russia. Ukraine attacked the bridge overnight using unmanned drones on the water surface, Russia's Anti-Terrorist Committee claims.

This is a severe blow for Putin he must react relentless.

[/b]Update from The Institute for the Study of War.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 17, 2023
Jul 17, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF










Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2023

Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 17, 2023, 8:30pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 2:30pm ET on July 17. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.


[b]The July 17 attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge will likely have continuing ramifications on Russian logistics in southern Ukraine. [/b
Russian authorities accused Ukrainian special services of conducting an unmanned surface vehicle strike against the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea on the morning of July 17.[1] Footage of the aftermath shows that one Kerch Strait Bridge road span had collapsed and another span suffered damage but remains intact.[2] The Russian Ministry of Transport claimed that the strikes did not damage the rail bridge or supports of the road bridge, and rail traffic across the Kerch Strait Bridge resumed several hours after the strike.[3] Russian occupation authorities rerouted heavy civilian traffic from occupied Crimea to Russia through occupied southern Ukraine, and Russian sources reported extensive traffic jams in Crimea’s Dzhankoy Raion and occupied Kherson Oblast towards Melitopol.[
[b]The Russian government’s continued failure to put Russian society on a war-time footing will have significant impacts on Russian logistics as traffic from Russian tourism to occupied Crimea jams Russian logistics to southern Ukraine in the midst of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south.
The Kerch Strait Bridge is along one of two ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supporting Russia’s southern force grouping, with the other route passing through occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
Russian logistics to southern Ukraine will likely suffer in the short and medium-term, likely exacerbating recent and significant complaints about inadequate Russian supplies in southern Ukraine.

Former Russian 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) Commander Major General Ivan Popov’s recent complaints about the Russian military command’s mistreatment of Russian forces defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine sparked great ire in the Russian information space.
Russian and occupation authorities appear to be consumed with mitigating the consequences of the attack rather than leveraging the incident to levy heavy informational attacks with rhetorical inflections.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting instructing Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin to lead a headquarters and develop solutions to mitigate traffic issues across the bridge.
The Russian milblogger response to the Kerch Strait Bridge attack largely criticized Russian authorities for failing to secure the bridge.
Some milbloggers, including former Russian officer and critical pro-war nationalist Igor Girkin, offered the critique that Russian authorities have focused too heavily on road security and not enough on maritime security, thereby allowing the most recent attack on the bridge to occur.[
The Wagner Group continues to prepare to establish a permanent presence in Belarus.
Independent Belarusian monitoring group “The Hajun Project” reported on July 17 that another Wagner vehicle convoy traveled towards the Tsel village tent camp near Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast, Belarus, and that two other Wagner columns had traveled along this same route between July 11 and July 17.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front over the backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border on July 17.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces have launched active offensive operations and advanced in the Kupyansk area (between northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and northwestern Luhansk Oblast) in the past several days.

Key Takeaways:

The July 17 attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge will likely have significant and sustained impacts on Russian logistics as traffic from tourism to occupied Crimea jams Russian logistics to southern Ukraine in the midst of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south.
Russian and occupation authorities appear to be consumed with mitigating the consequences of the attack rather than leveraging the incident to levy heavy informational attacks with rhetorical inflections.
The Russian milblogger response to the Kerch Strait Bridge attack largely criticized Russian authorities for failing to secure the bridge.
The Wagner Group continues to prepare to establish a permanent presence in Belarus.
Russia continues efforts to reorganize its domestic security apparatus in the wake of the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front over the backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border on July 17.
Russian forces conducted active offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and have likely made marginal tactical gains in this direction.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks southwest and south of Kreminna, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area and advanced near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border.
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that Russian authorities have removed at least eight Russian military commanders without reappointing them to new positions since the start of the war, which is largely consistent with ISW’s previous assessments.
Russian occupation authorities continue to artificially increase the number of Russian citizens in occupied Ukraine ahead of the September regional elections.

Follow the link to observe terrain maps
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-17-2023

Ukraine will never give up Odesa !

Odesa port infrastructure damaged in Russian air strikes

Russia launched missile and drone strikes on southern and eastern Ukraine overnight that damaged infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday.

The attack on Odesa, one of Ukraine's main ports for exporting grain, followed a pledge of retaliation by Russia after a blast on a bridge linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula on Monday that Moscow blamed on Ukraine.

Where in the world is Yevgeny Prigozhin.
In a video segment appearing online Wednesday from a Wagner related source shows the Wagner Commander welcoming Wagner troops to their training camp in Belarus.
"The decision is made to stay here in Belarus for some time. During this this time, I'm sure we will make the Belarusian Army the second army in the world and we will stand up for them if necessary." He is heard shouting to the cheers of the Wagner mercenaries, promising a new beginning not in Ukraine but in Africa.

Poland moves troops to border with Belarus over Wagner's presence

Poland moves military troops from the west to the east of the country. Poland sees a possible threat due to the presence of Wagner's mercenary army on the border with Belarus. The country speaks of a provocation. It is still unclear how many troops are involved.

Wagner's mercenaries have begun exercises on the Polish border and will move with the army there, the Belarusian defense ministry said. They would be only a few miles from the border, training close to NATO territory.

Last week, more than 2,000 Wagner mercenaries arrived in Belarus. In all, some 10,000 mercenaries should be given refuge in Belarus, a Wagner commander said.

It was unclear for a long time whether the mercenaries would leave for Belarus in the wake of their leader Prigozhin, who had already left Russia. After the mutiny of the Wagner boss, it was agreed with President Putin that he will move to Belarus, where ally Lukashenko has been in power for 30 years.

For a while it was a mystery where Prigozhin was and whether he was actually in Belarus. The day before yesterday, a video surfaced in which the leader can be heard addressing his troops, but in which he is difficult to see.

In the video, the leader can be heard welcoming his mercenaries to the country and declaring that they will no longer be part of the war in Ukraine. He also says he wants to make the Belarusian army the second strongest in the world and to defend the country if it were attacked.

'MH17 perpetrator Igor Girkin arrested by Russian services'
Modified: 14 min ago 30 minutes ago
abroad _

MOSCOW - Igor Girkin has been arrested by the Russian authorities, according to his wife. This is confirmed by his lawyer. It is still unclear why he would be detained. Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, was involved in the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the subsequent uprising in eastern Ukraine and the downing of flight MH17. Lately he has been critical of the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The former intelligence officer is wanted internationally for involvement in the downing of MH17. He was sentenced to life in prison in November for the murder of 298 people on the plane. The judge considered him ultimately responsible as the highest-ranking soldier there.

Girkin was arrested by Russian authorities on charges of extremism.

Unlike the liberal and pro-democracy opposition to Vladimir Putin and independent journalists who are persecuted for criticizing the war in Ukraine or Putin, ultra-nationalists and pro-war activists like Girkin are considered untouchable because they are protected by high-ranking members of the military and intelligence services.

After large Ukrainian conteroffensives in September 2022, he predicted a complete defeat for Russian troops in Ukraine.[142] He said that full mobilization in Russia was the "last chance" for victory.[143] On 12 September, he called the Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants "very useful".[144] He also said that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu should be executed by firing squad and called for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order "to drive 20 million refugees to Europe."[137]

Putin knows he has been lied to by many people he wants to get out of this mess.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2023

Click here to read the full report.

Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 21, 2023, 8:00pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00pm ET on July 21. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.


The arrest of former Russian officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin (Strelkov) on July 21 may be the public manifestation of a shifting balance of power among Kremlin factions, possibly to the detriment of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), in which Girkin had served. The Russian Investigative Committee arrested Girkin on July 21, and Girkin will be held until September 18 on extremism changes.
Girkin’s arrest follows other criminal charges against ultranationalists with past ties to Russian security services and indicates that unknown Russian officials may be targeting prominent ultranationalists who routinely reveal insider information about the Kremlin. ISW has consistently assessed that Girkin likely has the backing of an unknown silovik – possibly within the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) – who promoted their interests by using Girkin as a conduit to reveal select information to Russia’s online ultranationalist community.
Wagner’s rebellion likely shifted the balance of power in the Kremlin, potentially depriving some patrons – including Girkin’s patron – of Putin’s favor and, therefore, of some of their power.
Girkin claimed on July 12 that Prigozhin’s rebellion shifted the balance of power within the Kremlin in favor of the group that reportedly includes Kiriyenko.
Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes against southern Ukraine for a fourth night on July 21 following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two of three Kaliber missiles, three of four Iskander missiles, and 13 of 19 Shahed UAVs launched at areas in southern Ukraine and that Russian forces also launched one Kh-22, one S-300 surface-to-air, and six Onyx missiles.
The Kremlin appears to be attempting to soften the Russian Ministry of Defense's July 19 announcement about viewing civilian ships in the Black Sea as legitimate military targets. Russian Deputy Foreign Ministry Sergei Vershinin stated on July 21 that the Russian MoD’s July 19 announcement that the Russian military will consider all ships en route to Ukrainian ports as potential military cargo vessels meant that Russian forces will inspect the ships.Russia is maneuvering to retain the option of modifying the current agreement rather than negotiating an entirely new one as it seeks to extract extensive concessions from the West.
Vershinin also argued that the July 22, 2022 memorandum underpinning the Black Sea Grain Initiative remains valid because neither Russia nor the United Nations (UN) gave notification about the termination of the memorandum that the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine signed.
Putin continued efforts to sow intra-NATO and Ukrainian-NATO divisions likely aimed at supporting the Kremlin’s Black Sea Grain Initiative effort and undermining long-term Western support for Ukraine. Putin’s rhetoric heavily drew upon historical parallels meant to evoke fear and distrust between European countries and the United States as well as between Ukraine and Poland. Putin’s rhetoric is consistent with prior rhetoric from Russian senior officials meant to sow distrust between Ukraine and its allies, undermine ongoing Western security assistance to Ukraine, and encourage Western states to push Ukraine prematurely into negotiations with Russia.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 21 and made gains in some areas. Geolocated footage published on July 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces made gains northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut) and closer to Pryyutne (12km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).
Pro-Wagner Group sources continue to express loyalty to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as the future of the Wagner Group and Prigozhin’s role in the organization remains unclear. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger released an interview with an alleged unnamed Wagner platoon commander on July 21. The platoon commander claimed that none of the Wagner personnel he knows signed contracts with the Russian MoD except for fighters whom Wagner fired for drunkenness and looting and a Wagner commander with the surname Troshev (callsign “Seda”).
French Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Emmanuel Bonne was likely referring to dual-use technology and non-lethal aid when speaking about Chinese supplied equipment to Russia on July 21. Bonn told a CNN journalist at the Aspen Security Forum on July 21 that China is supplying “massively [sic] military capabilities to Russia.”[44] CNN later quoted unspecified French officials as clarifying Bonne’s intent to speak of non-lethal aid, however.
A Russian milblogger affiliated with the Russian Airborne Forces claimed that recent speculations about the dismissal of 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev are false. The milblogger amplified footage of alleged personnel of the 7th VDV division denying Kornev’s dismissal as well as speculations that Russian authorities may intend to arrest VDV commander Mikhail Teplinsky.[47] ISW cannot confirm Kornev’s dismissal.


Key Takeaways:



The arrest of former Russian officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin (Strelkov) on July 21 may be the public manifestation of a shifting balance of power among Kremlin factions, possibly to the detriment of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), in which Girkin had served.
Russian insider sources claimed that Girkin’s arrest is part of the Russian Presidential Administration’s efforts to crack down on select high-profile Russian ultranationalists following Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion on June 24.
Girkin’s arrest follows other criminal charges against ultranationalists with past ties to Russian security services and indicates that unknown Russian officials may be targeting prominent ultranationalists who routinely reveal insider information about the Kremlin.
Wagner’s rebellion likely shifted the balance of power in the Kremlin, potentially depriving some patrons – including Girkin’s patron – of Putin’s favor and, therefore, of some of their power.
Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes against southern Ukraine for a fourth night on July 21 following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The Kremlin appears to be attempting to soften the Russian Ministry of Defense's July 19 announcement about viewing civilian ships in the Black Sea as legitimate military targets.
Russia is maneuvering to retain the option of modifying the current agreement rather than negotiating an entirely new one as it seeks to extract extensive concessions from the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued efforts to sow intra-NATO and Ukrainian-NATO divisions likely aimed at supporting the Kremlin’s Black Sea Grain Initiative effort and undermining long-term Western support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 21 and made gains in some areas.
Pro-Wagner Group sources continue to express loyalty to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as the future of the Wagner Group and Prigozhin’s role in the organization remains unclear.
French Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Emmanuel Bonne was likely referring to dual-use technology and non-lethal aid when speaking about Chinese supplied equipment to Russia on July 21.
A Russian milblogger affiliated with the Russian Airborne Forces claimed that recent speculations about the dismissal of 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev are false.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut areas, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and reportedly advanced in the Kupyansk and Kreminna areas.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area, and along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna and Avdiivka Donetsk City lines, and advanced in the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast, the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area, and south of Orikhiv, and reportedly advanced south of Orikhiv.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made gains in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area.
Russian officials announced that they will amend a Russian State Duma bill originally aimed at incrementally raising the conscription age so that there is an immediate increase of the upper age limit for the spring 2024 conscription cycle.
Russian occupation authorities continue to relocate Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine to Russia.
A Wagner-linked source reported that Wagner temporarily relocated its headquarters from Molkino, Krasnodar Krai, to Belarus and that Wagner’s work to transfer combat experience to the Belarusian military is in full swing.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 23, 2023
Jul 23, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023

George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Thomas Bergeron, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 23, 2023, 7:15pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:30pm ET on July 23. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin may pose to him through symbolism and posturing during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, Russia. Putin made several significant symbolic gestures during his July 23 meeting with Lukashenko, suggesting that Putin sought to project power and confidence in his own supremacy over the Prigozhin-aligned St. Petersburg-based faction. Putin took Lukashenko to visit Kronstadt in St. Petersburg – the historically significant island fortress where Russian soldiers and sailors conducted a famous unsuccessful anti-Bolshevik insurrection in early 1921 that the Soviet government ultimately suppressed.

Lukashenko told Putin that the Wagner Group in Belarus will remain in central Belarus likely subtly reminding Putin of the threat the Wagner military organization still poses to him and underlining Lukashenko’s control over that power. Lukashenko’s statements were likely meant to make Putin reflect on the uncomfortable (for Putin) fact that Wagner’s new garrison in Belarus puts its forces half as far from Moscow as Wagner’s previous base in southern Russia. The Wagner Group’s previous base in Krasnodar Krai was about 1,370 km from Moscow, whereas its new base in Belarus is about 720 km along an excellent military highway.

Putin and Lukashenko also amplified information operations targeting the West. The leaders amplified their false claims that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed.[6] Senior Western and Ukrainian leaders--and ISW--continue to assess that it is too early to evaluate Ukraine’s counteroffensive since Ukraine still has significant uncommitted prepared forces and retains the ability to launch decisive operations at times and places of its choosing.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have liberated approximately 50 percent of the territory that Russian forces captured since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. This figure is largely consistent with ISW’s current assessment of control of terrain. Analysts can employ several methods to calculate control of terrain with varying results depending on the cartographical projection used and other factors. An estimate using ISW’s control of terrain data and the Mercator projection indicates that Ukrainian forces liberated about 53 percent of the land that Russian forces captured since February 2022. Estimates made using different data sources, measurement methods, or projections will generate different numbers. Factors, such as higher confidence about unconfirmed Russian claimed territorial gains, can impact such estimations as well. ISW appreciates and closely studies government officials’ statements about control of terrain geometry to cross-reference, confirm, and where necessary correct assessments.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front line and advanced on July 23. Geolocated footage published on July 22 shows that Ukrainian forces made some advances in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka), and some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced near Pryyutne (14km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes against port infrastructure and the city center in Odesa City overnight on July 22 to 23, severely damaging civilian areas. General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 19 missiles, including five Onyx, five Iskander-K, four Kalibr, two Kh-22, and two Iskander-M missiles, and that Ukrainian forces shot down four Kalibr and five Iskander-K missiles.

Further speculation about former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s arrest and the public posturing of Girkin’s affiliates suggests that a limited section of the pro-war community may have been contemplating political action in opposition to the Kremlin. Angry Patriots Club member and leader of the “Civil Solidarity” movement Georgy Fedorov claimed on July 22 that the Club developed a strategy and specific action plan for a campaign to defend Girkin and will be reaching out to grassroots supporters for help.

Angry Patriots members likely view Girkin’s arrest as an existential threat to the segment of the ultranationalist community he represents and will likely intensify their campaign to cast Girkin as an opposition figure. Angry Patriots Club member Yevgeny Mikhailov continued to criticize the Kremlin, calling Girkin’s arrest a ”gross mistake” and highlighting the double standards that Russian authorities use for prominent Russian officials who have criticized Russian forces’ conduct in the war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin may be attempting to censor an isolated segment of the Russian ultranationalist community that is consistently vocally hostile to the Kremlin. Russian news outlet Kommersant reported on July 21 that Russian law enforcement is investigating Angry Patriots Club Chair Pavel Gubarev for extremism because of his Telegram posts.

The head of one of the largest suppliers of surveillance equipment to Russian special services died on July 22. Russian law enforcement found “IKS Holding” Head Anton Cherepennikov dead in his office on July 22 and later claimed that Cherepennikov suffocated during a xenon gas therapy session.


Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin may pose to him through symbolism and posturing during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Lukashenko told Putin that the Wagner Group in Belarus will remain in central Belarus likely subtly reminding Putin of the threat the Wagner military organization still poses to him and underlining Lukashenko’s control over that power.
Putin and Lukashenko also amplified information operations targeting the West.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have liberated approximately 50 percent of the territory that Russian forces captured since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front line and advanced on July 23.
Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes against port infrastructure and the city center in Odesa City overnight on July 22 to 23, severely damaging civilian areas.
Further speculation about former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s arrest and the public posturing of Girkin’s affiliates suggests that a limited section of the pro-war community may have been contemplating political action in opposition to the Kremlin.
Angry Patriots members likely view Girkin’s arrest as an existential threat to the segment of the ultranationalist community he represents and will likely intensify their campaign to cast Girkin as an opposition figure.
The Kremlin may be attempting to censor an isolated segment of the Russian ultranationalist community that is consistently vocally hostile to the Kremlin.
The head of one of the largest suppliers of surveillance equipment to Russian special services died on July 22.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line and reportedly made tactically significant gains.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line and in the Bakhmut area, and reportedly made gains near Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas but did not advance.
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblasts border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblasts border area.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine.
Russian occupation authorities are bringing foreign citizens to occupied Ukraine to artificially alter demographics.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Update from the Institute for the Study of War.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023

Click here to read the full report

Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 25, 2023, 7:20pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:30pm ET on July 25. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may pose during an impromptu two-day extension of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to St. Petersburg. BBC’s Russian Service reported on July 25 that Putin told Lukashenko at the beginning of their July 23 meeting that Putin was ready to adjust his schedule to prolong Lukashenko’s visit and “discuss important topics in more detail.”[1] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reported on July 25 that Putin and Lukashenko intended to “’synchronize watches’ and exchange views” but not sign any agreements during their prolonged meeting.[2] Peskov also reported that Putin and Lukashenko discussed the Wagner Group, the Union State, and external threats on the borders of Russia and Belarus.[3] Putin’s decision to prolong his meeting with Lukashenko likely shows Putin’s continued concerns about Wagner, which it appears that Lukashenko did not allay.

Lukashenko likely seeks to leverage his power over the Wagner Group to gain concessions from Putin. A Russian insider source claimed that the Wagner Group was the most important topic during the Putin-Lukashenko meeting, and that Lukashenko sought more economic assistance to Belarus through Union State programs.[4] The insider source also claimed that Putin wanted Belarus to be more involved in the war in Ukraine and rejected Lukashenko’s compromise offer to have Belarusian forces conduct a show of force on Belarus’ border with Ukraine.[5] Lukashenko was likely trying to leverage Putin’s concern over the Wagner Group throughout the entire visit to Russia to gain favorable conditions in Belarusian-Russian relations while deflecting Putin’s demands for closer integration into the Union State and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Russian leadership is attempting to mitigate the security vacuum left by the Wagner Group’s departure by creating formalized but decentralized military “enterprises” on the basis of federal subjects (regions). The Russian State Duma adopted the second and third readings of amendments to the federal law regulating the circulation of weapons in constituent entities of the Russian Federation on July 25 that will allow heads of Russian federal subjects to create specialized state unitary enterprises.[6] Russian opposition media noted that certain intricacies in the amendments allow regional heads to create regionally based militarized state enterprises that are analogous to private military companies (PMCs) during a period of mobilization under martial law.[7] The amendments notably require regional and local budgets to finance the special enterprises, which will be equipped with small arms by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and will assist the Russian State Security Service (FSB), Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) and other military authorities in ensuring public order and border security.[8] The amendments would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to create the enterprises on a temporary basis and later abolish them, after which these enterprises would have to transfer all small arms and other weapons back to the Russian MoD within a month.The Kremlin is likely trying to balance two competing security requirements—the need for combat capable formations that can fulfill roles left by the Wagner Group following their armed rebellion and relocation to Belarus and the desire not to recreate the systemic threats to the Russian state that Wagner’s independence posed. The creation of formal militarized state enterprises that will fulfill border security and domestic law enforcement tasks is likely intended in part to remedy the gap left by Wagner. However, the fact that these enterprises are so heavily decentralized and will operate under the auspices of internal security organs on the basis and expense of regional and local governments suggests that the Russian military leadership is very alive to the risk of recreating a powerful Wagner analogue and is therefore trying to limit the scale and power each individual enterprise can obtain. These state enterprises also appear to be a renewed iteration of the failed volunteer battalion model that Russian regions employed throughout the summer of 2022, but these enterprises will operate under formalized and consolidated domestic security organs such as the FSB, likely to mitigate many of the weaknesses in the old volunteer battalion system.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced on July 25. Geolocated footage published on July 25 shows that Ukrainian forces have made tactically significant gains south of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[11] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast), and Berdyansk (Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area) directions.[12] Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 750 meters in the direction of Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka), and Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces made marginal advances west of Orikhiv.[13] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces are dying at a rate eight times higher than Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area and 5.3 times higher in the Berdyansk and Melitopol directions.[14] ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations aim to create an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment.

Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed drone strikes on rear areas of Ukraine overnight on July 24-25. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported on July 25 that Ukrainian forces recorded the launch of about 10 Shahed drones, five of which Ukrainian forces destroyed.[16] Ukrainian military sources reported drones over Kyiv City and Cherkasy, Sumy, Poltava, and Zhytomyr oblasts.[17] The Kyiv City Military Administration noted that this was the sixth drone strike on the capital city in July alone.[18] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that the strikes targeted Ukrainian concentration areas, Western-provided military equipment and other military infrastructure, but Ukrainian sources noted that many of the drones struck open fields and empty hangars.

The Angry Patriots Club continues efforts to cast former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin (Strelkov) as an opposition figure and may be attempting to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin through rhetoric about the illegality of Girkin’s arrest. The Angry Patriots Club, known in the Russian information space for its virulent pro-war, ultranationalist rhetoric and willingness to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), the Kremlin, and even Putin himself, has unexpectedly postured itself as an organization concerned about the rule of law following Girkin’s arrest.[20] The organization is attempting to cast Girkin as an opposition figure in Russian politics by arguing that his arrest is unlawful and by launching the social media campaign “#FreedomtoStrelkov.”[21] The Angry Patriots Club may be employing rhetoric about the illegality of Girkin’s arrest as an appeal to Putin, who has historically (and ironically) portrayed himself as a defender of Russian democracy and has seemingly been hesitant to abandon the veil of legitimacy that Russia’s democratic institutions provide his authoritarian and corrupt rule.[22] The Angry Patriots Club may believe that the veneer of legality in Russia is personally important to Putin and that Putin might feel compelled to intervene if he believes Girkin’s arrest and detention is illegal. It is a further irony that Girkin’s statements seem straightforwardly to violate Russia’s repressive laws prohibiting criticism of the war and its leaders.[23] Russian opposition figures Alexei Navalny and Mikhail Khodorkovsky amplified the Angry Patriots Club’s framing of Girkin as a political prisoner and his arrest as illegal, though it is unclear how Navalny and Khodorkovsky intend for their support to affect Girkin’s detention and eventual sentencing.

Putin and the Kremlin reportedly failed to respond promptly to the Wagner Group’s June 24 rebellion, leaving local Russian officials to make decisions concerning the group’s drive on Moscow. The Washington Post reported on July 25 that Ukrainian and European security officials stated that Putin did not issue orders for most of June 24 despite warnings from Russian security services about the likelihood of the rebellion at least two or three days beforehand.[25] Russian security services reportedly increased security at several strategic locations, including the Kremlin, in the days before the rebellion but took no other actions.[26] Regional Russian officials reportedly had to decide how to respond to the rebellion, and regional military and security officials were reportedly the ones that decided not to try to stop Wagner convoys by force.[27] The Kremlin’s and Putin’s alleged lack of response indicates that the Russian security apparatus had likely not prepared for a direct challenge to the Russian military leadership and likely did not have the capacity to quickly bring the rebellion to an end. The Kremlin is likely aware that its paralysis highlighted a degree of regime instability and appears to be consolidating Russia’s internal security apparatus in the Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) to prepare for further internal threats and to signal resolve.[28] Putin’s failure to act quickly also suggests that he is uncertain about his ability to rally the Russian elite around him and may indicate how factional internal Kremlin politics have become. A senior NATO official reportedly stated that unspecified senior Russian political figures in Moscow appeared ready to rally behind Prigozhin in the event that Wagner’s rebellion succeeded.[29] The Kremlin is likely trying to identify Russian elites who may have been prepared to side with Prigozhin and likely views regional officials’ decisions not to stop Wagner's advance as an indicator of disloyalty. Tula Oblast Governor and former head of Russia’s Special Operations Forces Alexei Dyumin has likely drawn further suspicion due to his previous affiliations with Prigozhin and his role in the negotiations that ended the rebellion.


Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may pose during an impromptu two-day extension of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to St. Petersburg. Lukashenko likely seeks to leverage his power over the Wagner Group to gain concessions from Putin.
Russian leadership is attempting to mitigate the security vacuum left by the Wagner Group’s departure by creating formalized but decentralized military “enterprises” on the basis of federal subjects (regions).
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced on July 25.
Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed drone strikes on rear areas of Ukraine overnight on July 24-25.
The Angry Patriots Club continues efforts to cast former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin (Strelkov) as an opposition figure and may be attempting to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin through rhetoric about the illegality of Girkin’s arrest.
Putin and the Kremlin reportedly failed to respond promptly to the Wagner Group’s June 24 rebellion, leaving local Russian officials to make decisions concerning the group’s drive on Moscow.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Svatove, Kreminna, the Bakhmut area, the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area and made claimed advances near Svatove, Kreminna, and Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Kreminna, the Bakhmut area, the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts, and western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in the Bakhmut area, in some areas along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts, and west of Orikhiv.
US intelligence officials warned on July 25 that Russia’s drone supply will dramatically increase as a result of continued bilateral Russo-Iranian cooperation.
Russian officials continue efforts to deconflict legal discrepancies as part of the incorporation of occupied territories.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Update from the Russian advance in the Luhansk Oblast.
A concentration of up to 100,000 Russian troops in the Luhansk Oblast has been able to create a salient into Ukrainian territory capturing three Ukrainian villages and penetrating eight kilometers up to the Kharkiv Oblast border.

Ukraine has thousands of new soldiers now in the south trained by the best in the West, Russians still have the numbers but, without Wagner, those soldiers are no match.

Russia downs Ukrainian drone in Moscow region, says defence ministry

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230728-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-russia-downs-ukrainian-drone-in-moscow-region-says-defence-ministry

I wonder how long it will be until Moscow is reporting downing F-16s in the Moscow region??

Update from the Institute for the Study of War.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 2023

Click here to read the full report.

Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 27, 2023, 7:30pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1pm ET on July 27. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 28 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, although Ukrainian forces appear not to have continued significant mechanized assaults south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted footage on July 27 showing that Ukrainian forces liberated Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) in western Donetsk Oblast following heavy fighting in the area.[1] Geolocated footage published on July 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces also made marginal advances north of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[2] Geolocated footage published on July 26 suggests that Ukrainian forces made additional advances east of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) during offensive operations on July 26.[3] Ukrainian Director of the Department of Application Planning at the Main Command of the National Guard Mykola Urshalovych stated on July 27 that Ukrainian forces achieved tactical victories in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[4] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued assaults at a lower tempo and with far less manpower near Robotyne on July 27 after Ukrainian forces launched an intense mechanized frontal assault that broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement on July 26.[5] Geolocated footage published on July 27 suggests that Ukrainian forces may be operating in areas well forward of where ISW assesses Ukrainian advances to be as a result of ISW’s intentionally conservative assessments about control of terrain (covered in more detail in Southern Axis text).[6]

The Kremlin and the wider Russian information space are intensifying efforts to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed effort. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated to a reporter on July 27 that in recent days Russian forces destroyed 39 armored vehicles out of 50 that Ukrainian forces committed to intensified assaults in the Zaporizhia direction.[7] Putin claimed that Russian forces also killed 60 percent of the Ukrainian personnel that conducted these assaults as well as 40 percent of Ukrainian combat aviation pilots in the area.[8] Putin has previously claimed that Russian forces have destroyed an implausible amount of Ukrainian equipment during Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, although his figures concerning Ukrainian assaults in recent days indicate an inflection in his exaggeration of likely Ukrainian losses.[9] Russian milbloggers similarly claimed that Russian forces destroyed dozens of Ukrainian armored vehicles and celebrated the alleged losses as proof that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalling.[10] The Kremlin’s and the Russian information space’s framing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive notably violates a reported Kremlin manual instructing Russian media not to downplay the potential for successful Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[11] The intensifying portrayal of the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed effort suggests that the Kremlin’s policy on the coverage of the war is to bolster efforts to promote itself as an effective manager of the war effort.

Russian President Vladimir Putin used the Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum in St. Petersburg on July 27 to continue efforts to posture Russia as a more attractive ally to African partner states than the collective West. Putin met with several African leaders at the forum, including Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of Zimbabwe Emmerson Dambuzo Mnangagwa, President of the Republic of Burundi Evariste Ndayishimiye, President of Mozambique Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, and President of Comoros Azali Assoumani.[16] During his speech at the plenary session of the forum, Putin emphasized the importance of expanding Russian–African cooperation and Russia’s investment in the development of African nations, notably accusing Ukraine and the West of interfering with Russia’s supply of grain and fertilizers to the African continent and claiming that Russia will provide between 25 and 50 thousand tons of grain free of charge to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somali, Central African Republic, and Eritrea over the coming months.[17] Putin announced that Russia is helping to develop over 30 energy infrastructure projects in 16 African states and called for an expansion of cultural and social integration between Russia and the African continent, stating that Russia plans to open branches of Russian universities in Africa and increase enrollment of African students in Russian educational institutions.[18]

Beyond the typical diplomatic platitudes and promises of continued cooperation and development, Putin’s rhetoric during the Russia-Africa forum does not represent a major inflection in the Kremlin’s policy toward the African continent. Putin previously signed an article published on July 24 to posture Russia’s commitment to African development and mitigate damage done to Russia’s position in Africa and his personal reputation with African leaders.[19] Putin’s and the Russian government’s reputations likely suffered due to a number of recent factors: Russia’s recent withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure (both of which were critical for grain exports to various African countries) and his inability to attend the upcoming BRICS summit because of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant against him.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was also present in St. Petersburg on July 27 and took the opportunity to informally meet with an unknown number of African leaders, suggesting that the Wagner Group intends to remain a significant player in Africa. Russian milbloggers amplified photos of Prigozhin shaking hands with a Central African Republic official and the “director of Afrique media.”[20] A Russian insider source claimed that Prigozhin held private, informal meetings with representatives of an unknown number of African governments in a hotel close to the Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum but did not attend the summit itself.[21] Prigozhin's continued efforts to meet with and message to African leaders are likely part of Wagner's efforts to maintain its profitable military and mining contracts in Africa. An unnamed Wagner commander who recently returned from CAR claimed on July 26 that Wagner is working on increasing its operations in Africa to fund its presence in Belarus.[22] Prigozhin additionally used the backdrop of the Russia-Africa summit to position Wagner as a viable anti-Western partner for post-coup Niger. Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels began circulating an audio recording reportedly of Prigozhin on July 27 wherein Prigozhin praised the Nigerien military’s removal of Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum and lauded it as an act of “gaining independence,” while accusing Western nations of deliberately destabilizing the situation in Africa and supporting terrorist organizations.[23] Prigozhin suggested that a “thousand fighters” from Wagner would be able to restore order, presumably in post-coup Niger.[24] Several Russian milbloggers responded to Prigozhin’s purported audio recording and suggested that Niger will need “help” from Wagner similar to what Mali needed following its coup in May 2021.[25] Prigozhin is posturing Wagner as a viable security partner for Niger, which is largely consistent with ISW’s and the Critical Threats Project’s (CTP) previous assessment that Wagner is likely to maintain and even expand its presence in the African continent following its July 24 armed rebellion.

The Kremlin reportedly distributed a manual to Russian state media on framing the anniversary of the Baptism of Rus on July 28, likely as part of continued information operations and propaganda narratives to advance Russian military objectives. Russian opposition news outlet Meduza reported on July 27 that it obtained the manual but did not publish the manual itself, which reportedly directs Russian state media to frame the Baptism of Rus as “a key turning point in Russian history” and “the point of formation of statehood.”[27] The manual reportedly emphasized that a “common faith” allowed the “East Slavic tribes” to unify as “one people.”[28] The manual reportedly instructs state media to paint Russian President Vladimir Putin as the one who “brought the mission of defending the Orthodox faith back to Russia” and reportedly labels the Ukrainian government an “apostate regime” and a “satanic regime” that is trying to “destroy” Orthodoxy in Ukraine and “the spiritual ties of the fraternal peoples.”[29] These Kremlin-dictated religion-based narratives come as Russia is itself committing systematic religious repressions and persecutions throughout Ukraine, including against Orthodox Christians, in an effort to destroy Ukrainian cultural and national identity.[30] The Kremlin reportedly issued a similar manual to state media in May aimed at controlling the narratives about a potential upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the distribution of these manuals demonstrates the Kremlin’s use of various information operations to spread propaganda messages and discredit Ukraine in the international arena.

Russia conducted another strike on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast and rear areas of Ukraine overnight on July 26–27. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched two Kalibr cruise missiles that damaged port infrastructure in Odesa City.[32] Ukrainian military sources also reported that Russian forces launched eight Shahed drones and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all eight.

US President Joe Biden has reportedly ordered the US government in recent days to share evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague. This will be the first time the US will share evidence with the ICC as part of a criminal investigation into a country that is not a part of the ICC.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, although Ukrainian forces appear not to have continued significant mechanized assaults south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
A US official expressed caution about assessing that the July 26 uptick in Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast is part of the Ukrainian main effort, tempering July 26 statements to the contrary.
Russian President Vladimir Putin used the Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum in St. Petersburg on July 27 to continue efforts to posture Russia as a more attractive ally to African partner states than the collective West.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was also present in St. Petersburg on July 27 and took the opportunity to informally meet with an unknown number of African leaders, suggesting that the Wagner Group intends to remain a significant player in Africa.
Prigozhin additionally used the backdrop of the Russia-Africa summit to position Wagner as a viable anti-Western partner for post-coup Niger.
The Kremlin reportedly distributed a manual to Russian state media on framing the anniversary of the Baptism of Rus on July 28, likely as part of continued information operations and propaganda narratives to advance Russian military objectives.
Russia conducted another strike on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast and rear areas of Ukraine overnight on July 26–27.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on July 27 and did not make any confirmed advances.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and have advanced south of Bakhmut, in the ZaporizhiaDonetsk Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian State Duma approved measures on July 27 aimed at clarifying confusion surrounding the recently updated laws regarding conscripts and reservists.
Russian authorities are discriminating against Ukrainian refugees in Belgorod Oblast, Russia.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Significant progress along the Zaporizhzhian Front when Ukranian forces were able to advance to, and liberate Staomaiorske. This sets the stage for advancement to the next objective, Staromlynivka, headquarters for the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army. This promises to be a larger scale engagement which, if successful, opens the way to the Russian main defense lines and open path to the Black Sea and the ports of Yalta or Berdiansk.
Further advances near Robotyne by Ukrranian mechanized units supported by infantry were able to penetrate up to the Russian main defense lines which were unmanned, only lack of trench filling machines hampered advancement past fixed dragon teeth emplacements near Verbove.
Ukrainian forces were able push back the Russian salient in the Luhansk Oblast several kilometers, liberating one of the villages captured by Russian Federation forces yesterday.
.

African Union not only wants Russian grain, but also a ceasefire in Ukraine

Proposals made by President Putin about grain deliveries to Africa are not satisfactory, a ceasefire in Ukraine is needed. African Union President Azali Assoumani said this in a closing statement at the two-day Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg.

On Thursday, Putin reiterated earlier claims that Russia can supply grain to Africa, now that Ukraine can no longer export because the grain deal has ended . He also offered six African countries free grain .

"Yes, this is important, but maybe it's not enough. We need to reach a ceasefire," Assoumani said. African leaders called on the Russian president in St. Petersburg to end the war and presented him with a peace plan.

"This war must stop. And it can only stop on the basis of justice and reason," said African Union Secretariat Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat. Putin said he respects the proposal and will "study it carefully."

Negotiate
Congolese President Denis Sassou-Nguesso believes that the African initiative should not be underestimated. "We call again urgently for the restoration of peace in Europe." Last month, African leaders also called on Russia to begin peace negotiations .

Putin repeated earlier statements that Russia is ready to negotiate, but that Ukraine is not willing. According to Putin, talks should take into account "new realities on the ground", referring to the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine.

The adviser to Ukrainian President Zelensky, Mychajlo Podoljak, called Putin's remarks "negotiation whimsy." African Union president Assoumani said that Putin had shown willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, and now "the other side" had to be convinced.

Extend grain deal
The African Union is also urging Putin to extend the grain deal, which recently expired as Russia suspended its cooperation . According to Faki Mahamat, an extension would "benefit all the peoples of the world, especially Africans".

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, grain exports from that country had come to an almost complete standstill. Global food prices rose sharply. The grain deal allowed Ukraine to export nearly 33 million tons of corn, wheat and other grains last year .

After the deal was closed, prices fell, but after its recent expiry, they rose again sharply. It is feared that the Russian decision will lead to more food insecurity and hunger in African countries.

Putin praised Africa's role in the emerging "multipolar world order." According to him, the era of US dominance is over. He said Russia has plans for increased trade and investment in African countries.

He also wants to strengthen military ties with African countries by training their armies and supplying more military equipment, some of which is free of charge.

Furthermore, Russia and African countries agreed to cooperate on colonialism-caused damage and to strive for the return of cultural artifacts.

The summit was attended by 49 African delegations, 17 of which came with heads of state. At the first Russia-Africa summit in 2019, there were still 43 African heads of state.

Russia downs three Ukrainian drones over Moscow, defence ministry says

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...drones-over-moscow-defence-ministry-says

Russia’s defence ministry said that three Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow early on Sunday, the TASS news agency reported. One drone was destroyed in the air and two others crashed in Moscow, the ministry said. The attack damaged two buildings and temporarily suspended flights at Vnukovo airport.

Update from the Institute for the Study of War
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2023

Click here to read the full report.

Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 29, 2023, 3:40pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 11:30am ET on July 29. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 30 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around the Kremlin’s narrative effort to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failure, increasingly overstating Ukrainian losses and writing less about Russia's losses and challenges than they had been. Prominent Russian milbloggers have been increasingly presenting Ukrainian counteroffensive operations inaccurately as a series of failed Ukrainian assaults along the entire line of contact.[1] Russian milbloggers widely amplified footage on July 29 claiming that it showed a single Russian tank defeating an entire Ukrainian company with armored vehicles as if the event had occurred recently, but the footage is actually from June 7 and shows Russian artillery units striking the Ukrainian column.[2] Russian sources have previously recirculated old footage to support claims that Ukrainian forces are suffering significant armored vehicle losses, and the amplification of the footage on July 29 indicates that Russian sources are deliberately amplifying old footage to support the Kremlin narrative.[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin recently claimed that Ukrainian forces lost 39 armored vehicles in a few days of fighting in western Zaporizhia Oblast, a notable inflection in his exaggeration of Ukrainian losses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[4] ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is likely shifting its policy about the coverage of the war to downplay the possibilities of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive and to promote itself as an effective manager of the war effort.[5] Russian milbloggers continue to report on localized Ukrainian advances and some issues with Russian defensive operations, but the pro-war Russian information space’s wider operational framing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive aligns with the likely shift in the Kremlin’s portrayal of the counteroffensive.

Select Russian milbloggers may be shaping their depiction of the wider Ukrainian counteroffensive for fear of Kremlin punishment following the arrest of prominent pro-war critic Igor Girkin. A Russian insider source claimed on July 28 that sources within the presidential administration stated that the Kremlin recently encouraged Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers to reduce their coverage of the war in Ukraine in general and to post more positive content on topics of nationalistic pride.[7] ISW has not observed Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers reducing their coverage of the war, although Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers have begun to argue more emphatically that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is a failure.[8] The arrest of notable critics of the Russian war effort in Ukraine such as Girkin along with ongoing Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) efforts to consolidate control over the Russian information space may be prompting select milbloggers to align their portrayal of the war with the Kremlin’s more than they have normally done.

The Kremlin’s ability to establish a more cohesive narrative about the war within the Russian information space remains uncertain, and subsequent Russian failures or significant Ukrainian successes could disrupt the Kremlin’s progress in this effort. Segments of the Russian information space do continue to complain about systemic issues within the Russian war effort in Ukraine, and many Russian milbloggers would likely reverse course on their portrayal of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the event of significant Ukrainian gains. The milblogger community continues to be highly reactive and motivated by salient topics of outrage, and many milbloggers would likely abandon efforts to align themselves with the Kremlin’s messaging about the war in the event that a controversy about Russian failure prompts renewed intense ire towards the Russian military leadership.[10] A cohesively amplified and unchallenged Kremlin narrative concerning the tactical and operational situation in Ukraine would make accurate coverage of battlefield realities more challenging, particularly in the absence of more detailed reporting from the Ukrainian side.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in some areas on July 29. Geolocated footage published on July 28 confirms that Ukrainian forces have advanced close to the northwestern outskirts of Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut).[11] Geolocated footage published on July 29 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced to positions near the northern outskirts of Pryyutne (16km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[12] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued assaults near Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, and Andriivka south of Bakhmut.[13] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[14] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Rivnopil, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[15] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and one milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces captured a forest northeast of Robotyne.[16] A Russian milblogger stated that Russian defensive fortifications will not matter if Ukrainian forces inflict heavy losses on Russian forces to the point that there are not enough Russian personnel to man the fortifications.[17] The milblogger also stated that the depth of Ukrainian advances into Russian defensive lines matters less than the degree to which the balance of forces has shifted to favor Ukraine during the course of the counteroffensive.

Ukrainian forces targeted Russian military and logistics assets in occupied Crimea on July 28 and 29. The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Chonhar bridge between occupied Crimea and occupied Kherson Oblast on the morning of July 29.[18] Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo claimed Ukrainian forces launched 12 Storm Shadow missiles at the Chonhar rail bridge, but claimed that Russian air defenses intercepted all 12 missiles.[19] Some social media sources stated that locals reported explosions in the Chonhar area, but there is currently no visual evidence of the strike or claims about the consequences of the strike at the time of this publication.[20] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that saboteurs set explosives against a Russian ammunition depot in Kozacha Bay near Sevastopol, Crimea on July 28 and that locals reported primary and secondary detonations.[21] Sevastopol occupation head Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed on July 28 that any explosions in the Kozacha Bay area were due to Russian military exercises.

Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the evening of July 28. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces struck a residential building and a Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) building in Dnipro City with two Iskander cruise missiles.

Key Takeaways:

Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around a Kremlin narrative effort to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failure, increasingly overstating Ukrainian losses and writing less about Russia's losses and challenges than they had been.
Select Russian milbloggers may be shaping their depiction of the wider Ukrainian counteroffensive for fear of Kremlin punishment following the arrest of prominent pro-war critic Igor Girkin.
The Kremlin’s ability to establish a more cohesive narrative about the war within the Russian information space remains uncertain, and subsequent Russian failures or significant Ukrainian successes could disrupt the Kremlin’s progress in this effort.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in some areas on July 29.
Ukrainian forces likely targeted Russian military and logistics assets in occupied Crimea on July 28 and 29.
Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the evening of July 28.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and made claimed advances along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and advanced around Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and south of Orikhiv and advanced along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and south of Orikhiv but did not make confirmed or claimed advances.
A Ukrainian report indicates that Russian occupation authorities continue crypto-mobilization efforts in occupied Ukraine to replenish losses from combat casualties.
Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine to Russia under the guise of rest and rehabilitation programs.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Does someone knows which drones they use to penetrate so deep they probably have men on the ground no?

Yes, more than likely they were Ukrainian made UJ-22 drones or perhaps the longer ranged R18, which Ukraine's Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov recently boasted of a Ukrainian drone called the R18 that "can fly from Kyiv to Moscow and back".
"Although Ukraine has not confirmed that its armed forces carried out the attacks [on Moscow], I think that the pre-emptive raids we have seen last year prove that Ukraine has the capability to launch long range attacks of that kind from within Ukrainian territory," says David Cenciotti, editor of the Aviationist blog.

Drone specialist Steve Wright also said it was possible that a drone could hit the Kremlin having been launched from within Ukraine.

But he added: "My guess is that the drone was launched from far closer in than that, as this would avoid it having to run the gauntlet of much of Moscow's defences."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65475333

Thanks another attack on Zelensky's hometown, clearly a personal message.

Dead and people under rubble after Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih
By our news editors
Jul 31, 2023 at 10:29 am
Update: an hour ago



At least four people, including a 10-year-old girl, were killed in a Russian missile attack on Ukraine on Monday morning. At least thirty others were injured. Several people are still under the rubble.
Russia fired two missiles at Kryvyi Rih, a town in the Dnipropetrovsk region, on Monday morning. The Ukrainian Interior Minister confirms that there have been several deaths.

The death toll could rise further as people are still trapped under the rubble. Rescue workers search for victims.

One of the buildings had four floors. An educational institution was located there. The other building was a nine-story residential tower.

XI is a smart guy.

Update from the Institute for the Study of War


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 31, 2023
Jul 31, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2023

Karolina Hird, George Barros, Grace Mappes, and Mason Clark

July 31, 2023, 5:15pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00pm ET on July 31. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 1 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

The Wagner Group may be supplanting the Russian military as the Belarusian military’s key training partner. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on July 30 that Wagner personnel conducted company-level training with unspecified elements of multiple Belarusian mechanized brigades.[1] The training included tactical maneuver for dismounted infantry and focused on force concealment from enemy UAVs and coordination between companies, platoons, and squads.[2] The training also reportedly featured Belarusian infantry conducting a combined arms assault with tank and artillery support.[3] The Wagner Group’s new role in Belarusian company-level training is notable. The Belarusian military typically conducts such exercises with Russian trainers and relies on Russian planners for any multi-brigade exercises, which ISW has not yet observed Wagner Group participating in. ISW previously observed Wagner personnel training with a Belarusian airborne brigade that historically trains with the Russian 76th Airborne (VDV) Division and forecasted that the Wagner Group may seek to supplant legacy Russian–Belarusian unit relationships.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely succeeded in recruiting an unknown number of Wagner personnel following Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, though Prigozhin reportedly ordered remaining Wagner fighters to assemble in Belarus by August 5. Prigozhin announced on July 30 that “unfortunately a few [Wagner personnel] agreed to transfer from the Wagner Group” and joined other unspecified Russian security services — likely the Russian MoD).[5] Prigozhin thanked former Wagner personnel for their service, stated that neither he nor Wagner’s Council of Commanders banned Wagner personnel from joining different Russian “security structures,” and expressed hope that the departed Wagner members would “keep in touch” so that they can rejoin Wagner should there ever arrive a time when the Wagner Group must reform a force.[6] Prigozhin also reiterated known details about how the Wagner Group will continue to train Belarusian forces and operate in Africa.[7] The Ukrainian Resistance Center also noted on July 31 that Prigozhin ordered all Wagner personnel currently on rest and recuperation to arrive at Wagner’s field camps in Belarus no later than August 5 to attend unspecified events that Prigozhin will personally lead on August 5.[8] Prigozhin stated that most Wagner fighters are on “vacation” as of July 30. Prigozhin stated that the Wagner Group stopped recruiting in Russia and claimed that the Wagner Group does not need to recruit more personnel and has sufficient reserves.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made largely boilerplate comments framing the Russian state as adequately supporting long-term force-generation efforts and meeting Russian weapons demand through domestic production and international cooperation.[13 Shoigu claimed that over 15,000 students enrolled at Russian military universities for the coming school year, 10 percent of whom have combat experience fighting in Ukraine. Shoigu announced the resumption of instruction at the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School in occupied Donetsk, one of the combined arms academies the Russian military requires officers to attend before commanding at the brigade or regiment level. Shoigu also reiterated positive rhetoric about the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and actively seeking international military-technical cooperation to support the war effort. Shoigu stated that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will sign contracts worth over 433 billion rubles (roughly $4.7 billion) with defense enterprises at the Army-2023 international military-technical forum. The claimed overall value of these contracts is at least 13.4 percent less than the over 500 billion ruble (roughly $5.45 billion) value of contracts the MoD signed at the Army-2022 and 2021 forums but a substantial increase over the 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016 forums, the overall contract values of which were roughly 1.16 trillion rubles ($17.4 billion), 1.03 trillion ($10.9 billion), 130 billion ($1.4 billion), 170 billion ($1.8 billion), and 130 billion, respectively.[14] Shoigu stated that Russia invited the heads of over 108 defense departments to attend the Army-2023 forum.

Imagery posted on July 30 and 31 visually confirms damage to the Chonhar Bridge following a Ukrainian strike on July 29. Satellite imagery posted on July 30 reportedly shows damage to the Chonhar railway bridge.[16] Social media sources additionally circulated an image taken by someone standing on the bridge itself reportedly showing damage to the railway bridge.[17] One source speculated that the pictures taken from the bridge do not match the location of the damage as shown on available satellite imagery, which suggests that the full extent of the damage to the bridge is still unclear.[18] Russian milbloggers maintained their silence on damage to the Chonhar Bridge on July 31, possibly supporting ISW’s previous assessment that the Kremlin may have directed Russian commentators to refrain from covering the strike in an effort to exert greater control of the information space.

Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova confirmed on July 31 that Russia has transferred 4.8 million Ukrainians, including over 700,000 children, to the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war. In a report on the activities “authorized by the President of the Russian Federation for children’s rights” in 2022, Lvova-Belova claimed that Russia has “received” 4.8 million Ukrainians since February 2022 and noted that the vast majority of the 700,000 children who arrived to Russia did not have parental or guardian supervision.[21] The report carefully frames these activities as humanitarian gestures of goodwill. International humanitarian law, however, defines the forced transfer of civilians to the territory of an occupying power as “deportation.” And the circumstances of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the situation in occupied territories are likely sufficiently coercive to mean that most “transfers” of Ukrainian civilians to Russia meet the threshold of forced deportation, which is prohibited under Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, regardless of Russia’s claimed motive.[22] ISW continues to assess that Russian authorities are conducting a large-scale campaign to deport Ukrainians to the Russian Federation.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 31. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacking northwest and southwest of Bakhmut, in the western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[24] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that over the past week, Ukrainian forces liberated an additional 2 square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut area and 12.6 square kilometers in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.


Iran and Belarus are deepening bilateral cooperation over the backdrop of their mutual support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin arrived in Iran on July 31 and met with his counterpart, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, to sign a Memorandum of Understanding and a bilateral military cooperation plan for 2023.[26] Ashtiani is primarily responsible for negotiating military acquisitions and sales in his role as Iranian Defense Minister, so Khrenin and Ashtiani likely discussed arms deals during their meeting. Belarus may have also been seeking to secure an agreement on Iranian production of Shahed drones on the territory of Belarus following initial reports that Iran was seeking to convert a plant in Belarus’ Gomel Oblast into a Shahed production plant.

Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak stated on July 30 that Kyiv and Washington will begin consultations on providing Ukraine “security guarantees” as soon as the week of August 6 – 13. Yermak stated that the security guarantees for Ukraine — including “concrete and long-term commitments that will ensure Ukraine's ability to win now and deter Russian aggression in the future” — will cover the period before Ukraine acquires NATO membership.[28] Yermak described the security guarantees as an “important prerequisite” for Ukraine’s recovery and noted that the security guarantees include financial support for Ukraine and sanctions and punitive measures against Russia.


Key Takeaways:

The Wagner Group may be supplanting the Russian military as the Belarusian military’s key training partner.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely succeeded in recruiting an unknown number of Wagner personnel following Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, though Prigozhin ordered remaining Wagner fighters to assemble in Belarus by August 5.
Prigozhin stated that the Wagner Group stopped recruiting in Russia and claimed that the Wagner Group does not need to recruit more personnel and has sufficient reserves.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made largely boilerplate comments framing the Russian state as adequately supporting long-term force-generation efforts and meeting Russian weapons demand through domestic production and international cooperation.
Imagery posted on July 30 and 31 visually confirms damage to the Chonhar Bridge following a Ukrainian strike on July 29.
Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova confirmed on July 31 that Russia has transferred 4.8 million Ukrainians, including over 700,000 children, to the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war, very likely violating the Fourth Geneva Convention.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 31.
Iran and Belarus are deepening bilateral cooperation over the backdrop of their mutual support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak stated on July 30 that Kyiv and Washington will begin consultations on providing Ukraine “security guarantees” as soon as the week of August 6 – 13.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna and Avdiivka-Donetsk City lines and made claimed gains in Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified a law on July 31 increasing the fine for mobilized personnel’s or conscripts' failure to arrive at a military registration office after being summoned.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-31-2023

More Wagner Fighters Move Closer to Polish Border, Poland Says

WARSAW- About 100 soldiers from the Russian Wagner group have moved closer to the Belarusian city of Grodno near the Polish border, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Saturday.

Poland, a former Warsaw Pact member that has been a full member of the U.S.-led NATO military alliance since 1999, has been concerned about the possibility that the war could spill over onto its territory since Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Earlier this month, Poland began moving more than 1,000 troops to the east of the country amid rising concerns that the presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus could lead to increased tension on its border.

"The situation is getting increasingly dangerous. ... Most likely they (the Wagner personnel) will be disguised as the Belarusian border guard and help illegal migrants get to the Polish territory (and) destabilize Poland," Morawiecki said at a press conference in Gliwice, western Poland.

"They will most likely try to enter Poland pretending to be illegal migrants and this poses additional threats," Morawiecki said.

However, he did not disclose the source of his information on the Wagner movements, and Anton Motolko, founder of the Belarusian opposition Hajun project, which monitors military activity in the country, told Reuters his group had not seen any evidence of the Wagner group moving closer to Grodno.

The city has a potentially significant position because it is near the Suwalki Gap, a strategic strip of land along the Polish-Lithuanian border that divides Belarus, Russia's ally, from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

Earlier in July, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was shown in a video welcoming his fighters to Belarus, telling them they would take no further part in the Ukraine war for now but ordering them to gather their strength for Africa, where they are involved in a number of conflicts, while they train the Belarusian army.

The following day, some Wagner fighters arrived at the training ground of the 38th airborne assault brigade outside the city of Brest, just a few miles from the Polish border.

Wagner's move to Belarus was part of a deal that ended the group's mutiny attempt in June, when they took control of a Russian military headquarters, marched on Moscow and threatened to tip Russia into civil war, President Vladimir Putin has said.
https://www.voanews.com/a/more-wagn...-polish-border-poland-says-/7203775.html

Update from the Institute for the Study of War

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 1, 2023
Aug 1, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2023

Karolina Hird, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Annika Ganzeveld, and Mason Clark

August 1, 2023, 6:15pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:00pm ET on August 1. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submersibles on August 1. The Russian MoD initially claimed that Ukraine launched three unmanned boats at the “Sergey Kotov” and “Vasily Bykov” Project 22160 large patrol ships in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, about 340km southwest of Sevastopol.[1] The Russian MoD later clarified that the patrol ships were escorting Russian civilian transport ships en route to the Bosphorus Strait via the Black Sea and claimed that the patrol ships detected and destroyed all three semi-submersibles.[2] Russian authorities may be amplifying claims of Ukrainian attacks to frame Ukraine as irresponsibly threatening civilian ships in the Black Sea, thereby setting conditions to further escalate naval activity and consolidate control in the Black Sea, though there is no indication that Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets have threatened civilian vessels.[3] Geolocated images posted on July 31 show the installation of anti-naval drone barriers in Sevastopol Bay, likely as part of the overall Russian effort to increase naval and defensive posturing in the Black Sea.


Ukrainian actors likely conducted another drone strike on Moscow City in the early hours of August 1. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claimed that Russian air defense downed several drones flying towards Moscow, and geolocated footage shows that one drone struck the 21st floor of the IQ-Kvartal Tower in central Moscow City.[5] Russian media reported that the target of the strike was the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, located on the IQ-Kvartal Tower’s 21st floor.[6] Russian sources claimed that drones previously struck the IQ-Kvartal Tower on the night of July 29 to 30.[7] Social media footage from August 1 additionally shows a drone flying over Moscow suburbs in the Odintsovo district.[8] Several sources suggested that the drones were Ukrainian-made.[9] One Russian commentator accused Sobyanin of neglecting to secure Moscow against such continued drone attacks.[10] Russian authorities will likely struggle to balance the need to quell domestic concern over continuing drone attacks deep within the Russian rear with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued refusal to fully mobilize Russian society for the war and its corresponding consequences.

The Russian MoD continues to posture Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov as an effective and involved overall theater commander in Ukraine. The Russian MoD posted footage of Gerasimov on August 1 reportedly inspecting a forward command post in western Zaporizhia Oblast and receiving a briefing on Ukrainian operations and Russian defenses in the area.[11] This footage is one of Gerasimov’s first public appearances since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s June 24 rebellion and indicates that the MoD continues to publicize Gerasimov’s role as theater commander.[12] Some Russian sources previously claimed that rumored deputy theater commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky replaced Gerasimov as overall theater commander in Ukraine following Wagner’s rebellion, but ISW was unable to verify these rumors and assessed that Gerasimov will likely nominally retain his position in the Russian military.[13] The MoD’s footage notably portrays Gerasimov as the architect of Russian defensive operations in one sector of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, a role that the Russian information space previously attributed to both former deputy commander of the joint grouping of forces in Ukraine Army General Sergei Surovikin and former 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) Commander Major General Ivan Popov prior to their likely dismissals on June 28 and July 15, respectively, for challenging Gerasimov and the traditional MoD hierarchy.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may have signaled his intent to use the Wagner Group to create a foundation for an unspecified Belarusian “contract army.” Lukashenko stated on August 1 that he seeks to retain the Wagner Group within the Belarusian Armed Forces by using experienced Wagner fighters to “more actively create a contract army.”[15] Lukashenko did not provide details on the “contract army’s” organizational structure, planned end strength, or formation timeline, but noted that the Wagner Group currently includes over 30,000 fighters.[16]

Belarus currently does not have a “contract army” or a structure resembling a “contract army,” which in this context likely refers to the Russian term of “kontraktniki,” professional volunteer soldiers rather than conscripts. The Belarusian military does not field any formations above the brigade level and Belarus’ main combat units are six separate brigades (three mechanized, two airborne, and one spetsnaz) primarily staffed by 18-month conscripts and some contract servicemen.[17] The creation of a “contract army” would likely require the creation of a new formation or a significant reorganization of Belarus’ existing brigades and an overhaul of Belarusian training to create a force of long-serving professional soldiers, as Russia previously (and unsuccessfully) attempted to do in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Then-Belarusian Defense Minister Andrei Ravkov previously stated in 2016 that Belarus should not and does not plan to transition away from the traditional staff and cadre system to have a fully contract army.

Two Belarusian helicopters reportedly violated Polish airspace on August 1. Polish officials reported that two Belarusian helicopters entered Polish airspace on August 1 and that Poland will increase its troop presence at the Polish-Belarusian border in response.[19] Lukashenko also dismissed the Polish government for overreacting to news that the Wagner Group deployed a 100-person element closer to the Belarusian-Polish border and claimed that Wagner forces are in Grodno and Brest, rather than near the international border.[20] ISW continues to assess that Wagner forces in Belarus pose no military threat to Poland (or Ukraine, for that matter) until and unless they are re-equipped with mechanized equipment.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on August 1. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued gradually advancing near Bakhmut, and a Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces captured an unspecified height south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka.[21] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on August 1 that in the past week, Ukrainian forces captured two square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut direction and 12 square kilometers in southern Ukraine.[22] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks against Russian forces along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske and Urozhaine and in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne.[23] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) in western Zaporizhia Oblast likely struggles with severe fatigue and that elements of the 5th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) south of Velyka Novosilka likely face a high level of pressure to defend the area and feel that the Russian military command should rotate them from the front line.[24] The UK MoD also reported that Russian commanders in southern Ukraine largely struggle with artillery ammunition shortages, a lack of reserves, and challenges with securing the flanks of defending units.

Russian companies not under Western sanctions continue to recruit volunteers to fight in the war in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that unsanctioned Russian companies Rusal, Novatek, PIK, and Mospromstroy that are affiliated with Russian oligarchs, including Oleg Deripaska, Leonid Mikhelson, Sergei Gordeev, and Mikhail Gutseriev, recruit Russian volunteers to fight in the war in Ukraine.[25] Vazhnye Istorii reported that both the Russian MoD and Russian “military industrial complex companies” pay recruits’ salaries, who then serve in the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) and the “Sokol” Volunteer Battalion of the 108th Air Assault Regiment (7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division).[26] ISW and Vazhnye Istorii previously reported that Russian state-owned companies such as Gazprom, Russian Railways, and Roscosmos have contributed to recruitment efforts.[27] Gazprom and Russian Railways are under Western sanctions, however.

Iran is pursuing the construction of drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones more readily and provide Iran with numerous economic and military benefits. (NOTE: This text also appeared in the Critical Threats Project (CTP)’s August 1 Iran Update) Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri called for greater defense industry cooperation between Iran and Belarus during a meeting with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin in Tehran on August 1.[29] Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani signed a military cooperation agreement with Khrenin on July 31.[30] CTP assessed that Ashtiani and Khrenin may have discussed establishing Shahed kamikaze drone factories in Belarus to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[31] Ukraine claimed in May 2023 that Iranian engineers are exploring how to convert factories in Gomel, Belarus into drone production facilities.[32] The Biden administration revealed in June that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, Russia.[33] Iran opened an Ababil-2 drone factory in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in May 2022. Bagheri notably attended the opening ceremony of this factory.[34] The production of Iranian drones in Belarus and Russia will benefit both Russia and Iran:

Russia will benefit by acquiring Iranian drones for its invasion of Ukraine more readily. Israeli and Ukrainian media have noted that the construction of an Iranian drone factory in Belarus would alleviate the “logistical problems” Russia faces in transporting Iranian drones from Iran to Russia via the Middle East.[35] The Biden administration published a map in June showing Iranian drone transfers from Iran to Russia through the Caspian Sea.[36]
Iran will benefit by receiving revenue for the Iranian economy. The British Secret Intelligence Service revealed in July that Iran seeks to acquire cash from Russia in return for Iranian drones.[37] Iran is currently facing critical economic conditions, with the value of the rial surpassing 500,000 rials to one US dollar on August 1.[38] The Iran Statistical Center reported on July 25 that Iran’s inflation rate is approximately 47.5 percent.[39]
Russia can also benefit Iran's military. Western media speculated in late 2022 that Iran might receive Russian Su-35 fighter jets in return for supplying Russia with drones.[40] Iranian military officials have increasingly expressed skepticism at receiving Su-35s in recent months, however.[41] Western media reported in March that Russia provided Iran with advanced surveillance software and cyber weapons in exchange for drones.[42] A high-ranking Israeli military official separately expressed concern in June that Russia is providing Iran with Western weapons captured in Ukraine.[43]
Iran’s close cooperation with Belarus and Russia may stem, in part, because Iran has signed long-term strategic agreements with these countries. The graphic below depicts which countries Iran has signed or is pursuing cooperation agreements with.

Key Takeaways:

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submersibles on August 1.
Likely Ukrainian actors conducted another drone strike on Moscow City in the early hours of August 1.
The Russian MoD continues to posture Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov as an effective and involved overall theater commander in Ukraine.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may have signaled his intent to use the Wagner Group to create a foundation for an unspecified Belarusian “contract army.”
Two Belarusian helicopters reportedly violated Polish airspace on August 1.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on August 1.
Russian companies not under Western sanctions continue to recruit volunteers to fight in the war in Ukraine.
Iran is pursuing the construction of drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones more readily and provide Iran with numerous economic and military benefits.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 1 and made advances in certain areas.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 1 and advanced near Kreminna and Bakhmut.
The Russian Cabinet of Ministers granted Russian volunteer fighters and Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic (DNR and LNR) militia fighters (opolcheniye) veteran status on August 1.
Russian occupation authorities continue to deport children from occupied regions of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of education and rehabilitation programs.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2023

206 Shahed strike UAVs, 39 Kalibr cruise missiles, 37 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles and 2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles: Ukrainian air defence system destroyed more than 70% of Russian air targets in July
By: Myroslav Trinko | yesterday, 10:29

Monitoring group @war_monitor shared statistics of Russian shelling of Ukraine for July 2023.

Here's What We Know
From 01.07 to 31.07, 415 means of destruction were launched on the territory of Ukraine, including 150 missiles and 265 Shahed kamikaze strike drones. In total, the Ukrainian air defence system destroyed 206 UAVs (77.74%), as well as 39 out of 54 Kalibr cruise missiles (72.22%), 37 out of 41 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles (90.24%) and 2 out of 4 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles (50%). In addition, Russia fired 20 Onyx supersonic missiles and 17 Kh-22 hypersonic missiles at Ukraine. Unfortunately, none of them were shot down.

The overall success rate of the Ukrainian air defence forces is over 70%. The decrease in performance is affected by the use of Onyx, Kh-22, Kinzhal and Kalibr supersonic missiles. They are launched from submarines.

Source: https://t.me/war_monitor/9253

https://gagadget.com/en/289102-206-...2-kinzhal-hypersonic-missiles-ukrainian/

Update from the Institute for the Study of War

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 4, 2023
Aug 4, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2023

Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Mason Clark

August 4, 2023, 6:05 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:00pm ET on August 4. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russian logistics and port infrastructure in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai (a key Russian naval base) on the night of August 3 to 4. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses and electronic warfare units downed up to 13 Ukrainian drones targeting Crimea.[1] Geolocated footage published on August 4 shows Ukrainian drones striking areas near an oil depot in Feodosia, Crimea, although it is unclear whether the drone strikes damaged Russian targets.[2] Geolocated footage published on August 3 and 4 shows Russian forces firing on Ukrainian naval drones near a Russian naval base in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, and one of the naval drones striking the Russian Olenegorsky Gornyak Ropucha-class landing ship.[3] The Russian MoD stated that Russian naval artillery fire destroyed two Ukrainian naval drones near the base in Novorossisyk.[4] Geolocated footage posted later on August 4 shows the Olenegorsky Gornyak listing and a Russian support vessel towing the landing ship to the Novorossisyk port.[5] Geolocated footage does not indicate the full extent of the damage to the Olenegorsky Gornyak, and Russian sources claimed that the damage was not critical and that the ship would be operational after an unspecified time of repair.[6] Russian sources claimed that the Russian navy used the landing ship to transport civilian vehicles across the Kerch Strait amidst widespread disruptions to traffic across the Kerch Strait bridge.

Russian milbloggers characteristically lambasted the Russian MoD for lying about the naval drone strikes and called on the Russian military to escalate activities in the Black Sea. Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian MoD for originally claiming that the Russian forces had intercepted all drone strikes instead of admitting that the strikes damaged the Olenegorsky Gornyak landing ship.[8] Russian milbloggers criticized the MoD for previously lying about destroying the Ukrainian drone assembly facilities and claimed that Russian forces must cut Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea in order to prevent naval drone attacks from civilian ships.[9] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russia needs to create a full-fledged monitoring system for the Black Sea to detect Ukrainian boats, as other tactics like striking Ukrainian port infrastructure have not prevented attacks in the sea.[10] Some Russian milbloggers argued that the Russian MoD lacks a cohesive information policy, which creates conditions for public outcry in the Russian information space after every Russian military failure.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Berdyansk (Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[12] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces continue to advance on the southern flank of Bakhmut.[13] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Vadym Skibitskyi stated that the most important elements of the Ukrainian counteroffensive are unexpectedness and accuracy, not speed.[14] Skibitskyi noted that Ukrainian actions are aimed at cutting off Russian supply routes, destroying Russian stores of weapons and military equipment, and winning counterbattery battles.[15] Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder stated that Ukraine independently decides when and where to employ its significant combat capabilities.

The Kremlin continues to express its unwillingness to return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the absence of extensive concessions from the West. The Kremlin released a joint statement on August 4 following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s July 28 meeting with African leaders regarding their newly formally named African Peace Initiative.[17] The document stated that the African leaders called for concrete steps to remove obstacles to the export of Russian grain and fertilizers, and the release and delivery of 200,000 tons of Russian fertilizer stuck in European ports to African countries. These calls suggest that the African leaders support Russia’s conditions for revitalizing the Black Sea Grain Initiative.[18] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on August 4 that the United States would continue to do “whatever is necessary” to ensure that Russia can freely export food on the global market if Russia would be willing to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative and allow Ukraine to export grain safely through the Black Sea.[19] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Blinken’s statement by claiming that as soon as the United States fulfills Russia’s conditions, “the deal will immediately be resumed.”[20] These statements give no clear indication that Russia intends to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative and seeks to coerce the West to end limitations on its own exports.

Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin reportedly facilitated the reinstatement of the commander of the Russian 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division, Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, after meeting Putin’s Chief of Staff Anton Vaino on July 21.[21] Russian sources previously claimed on July 14 that the Russian military command dismissed Seliverstov for unknown reasons, but speculated that his removal could have been due to his reputation for speaking up on behalf of his forces.[22] ISW assessed on July 15 that Seliverstov’s claimed dismissal may have been a part of an ongoing purge of insubordinate commanders.[23] An unnamed source told a Russian Telegram channel (reportedly affiliated with the Russian security forces) that Dyumin bypassed the Russian MoD to reinstate Seliverstov via Vaino and the Russian Presidential Administration.[24] The source added that Dyumin’s decision to bypass the military chain of command has already sparked conflicts between the Russian Presidential Administration and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, and that Dyumin is attempting to displace Shoigu from his position. Dyumin reportedly attempted to intervene in Seliverstov’s firing during his visit to Moscow on July 14 but was unsuccessful in reversing the dismissal at that time.


While ISW cannot independently confirm these reports, if true, Dyumin likely advocated for Seliverstov in opposition to Shoigu or Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov or may have simply supported Seliverstov because the 106th VDV Division is headquartered in Tula Oblast. Vaino holds one of the most influential positions within Russian President Vladimir Putin’s circle and has reportedly served as an intermediatory between Putin and figures such as Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.[26] Dyumin’s successful meeting with Vaino, if true, indicates that select members of the Russian Presidential Administration are able to overrule and undermine decisions made by the MoD. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin’s chronic disregard for the Russian chain of command is likely hindering Shoigu and Gerasimov in their attempts to suppress insubordination and establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russian logistics and port infrastructure in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai (a key Russian naval base) on the night of August 3 to 4.
Russian milbloggers characteristically lambasted the Russian MoD for lying about the naval drone strikes and called on the Russian military to escalate activities in the Black Sea.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 4.
The Kremlin continues to express its unwillingness to return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the absence of extensive concessions from the West.
Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin reportedly facilitated the reinstatement of the commander of the Russian 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division, Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, after meeting Putin’s Chief of Staff Anton Vaino on July 21.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 4.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, in the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 4 and made advances in certain areas.
A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that China’s “temporary” export restrictions on drones may severely impact the ability of Russian volunteers to supply drones to Russian servicemen fighting in Ukraine.
Russian authorities are continuing to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camps.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-4-2023

CSIS
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance



The Issue
Russian fortifications in Ukraine are the most extensive defensive works in Europe since World War II, according to new CSIS analysis. The Russian military has constructed trenches, minefields, dragon’s teeth, and other barriers to slow Ukrainian forces during offensive operations. But as a review of previous wars shows, fortifications and other measures do not guarantee that the defender has the advantage. The Ukrainian military could effectively use a combination of strategy, technology, geography, and other factors to retake territory illegally seized by Russia.


Introduction

Russia has constructed formidable defensive fortifications in eastern and southern Ukraine. These defenses consist of an extensive network of trenches, antipersonnel and anti-vehicle mines, razor wire, earthen berms, and dragon’s teeth—truncated pyramids made of reinforced concrete used to impede the mobility of main battle tanks and mechanized infantry. As one UK defense intelligence report concluded, “Russia has constructed some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades. These defences are not just near the current front lines but have also been dug deep inside areas Russia currently controls.”[1]

Russia’s goals in building these defenses are to solidify its territorial gains in Ukraine and to prevent Ukrainian forces from liberating additional territory. Despite Russian efforts, however, it is unclear whether the defender has the advantage in Ukraine (as the Russians hope) or the Ukrainians can shift the advantage to the offense.





Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance
Figure 7: Multilayered Defenses North of Mykhailivka, Ukraine
Photo: Copyright © 2023 by Planet


Table of Contents
Introduction
The Offense-Defense Balance
How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?
What Obstacles Could a Ukrainian Offensive Face?
Lessons for Ukraine: Shifting the Advantage to the Offense
Next Steps

Brief by Seth G. Jones , Alexander Palmer , and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

Published June 9, 2023

Available Downloads
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The Issue
Russian fortifications in Ukraine are the most extensive defensive works in Europe since World War II, according to new CSIS analysis. The Russian military has constructed trenches, minefields, dragon’s teeth, and other barriers to slow Ukrainian forces during offensive operations. But as a review of previous wars shows, fortifications and other measures do not guarantee that the defender has the advantage. The Ukrainian military could effectively use a combination of strategy, technology, geography, and other factors to retake territory illegally seized by Russia.



Introduction
Russia has constructed formidable defensive fortifications in eastern and southern Ukraine. These defenses consist of an extensive network of trenches, antipersonnel and anti-vehicle mines, razor wire, earthen berms, and dragon’s teeth—truncated pyramids made of reinforced concrete used to impede the mobility of main battle tanks and mechanized infantry. As one UK defense intelligence report concluded, “Russia has constructed some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades. These defences are not just near the current front lines but have also been dug deep inside areas Russia currently controls.”[1]

Russia’s goals in building these defenses are to solidify its territorial gains in Ukraine and to prevent Ukrainian forces from liberating additional territory. Despite Russian efforts, however, it is unclear whether the defender has the advantage in Ukraine (as the Russians hope) or the Ukrainians can shift the advantage to the offense.

To assess the impact of Russia’s fortifications, this analysis asks several questions. How is the Russian military attempting to strengthen its defenses in Ukraine? How are these efforts likely to impact the offense-defense balance? What are Ukrainian options to shift the advantage to the offense? To answer these questions, this analysis utilizes several sources of information. It analyzes open-source data on Russian fortifications and assesses satellite imagery of Russian fortifications in eastern and southern Ukraine. It is also informed by extensive interviews with senior Ukrainian, U.S., and European military officials in Eastern Europe in May 2023. Finally, this analysis leverages an extensive literature on the offense-defense balance, including lessons from previous wars.

The rest of this assessment is divided into four sections. The first provides an overview of the offense-defense balance. The second section examines Russian defensive efforts in eastern and southern Ukraine based on CSIS analysis of open-source data and satellite imagery. The third explores the obstacles a Ukrainian offensive could face. The fourth section examines implications for Ukraine and its Western supporters.

Chapter One-published tomorrow

U.S. Strategic Nuclear Policy, An Oral History explores the origins of United States strategic nuclear policy and how it evolved. The documentary looks at this topic through the oral history of key participants including Robert McNamara, Edward Teller, James Schlesinger, Andrew Goodpaster, Harold Brown, Richard Garwin and William Kaufmann.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz0Dg5gIjhw

Update from the Institute for the Study of War


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 5, 2023
Aug 5, 2023 - Press ISW

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Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 5, 2023, 6:30 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00 pm ET on August 5. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 6 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two consecutive days. The Moscow Times identified the tanker as the chemical tanker SIG, which is currently under US sanctions for supplying jet fuel to Russian forces in Syria.[1] Sources within the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) confirmed to the Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that the SBU and the Ukrainian Navy struck the ship near the Kerch Strait Bridge using a naval drone.[2] The Russian Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport (Rosmorrechflot) reported that the strike on the SIG occurred 27 kilometers south of the Kerch Strait Bridge, and Russian milbloggers claimed that the attack caused Russian authorities to suspend traffic on the bridge.[3] Russian news aggregator Baza reported that the naval drone punched a two-by-one meter hole in the SIG’s engine room, and state Russian outlets claimed that the incident did not result in an oil spill.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that the Ukrainian naval drone intentionally targeted the SIG’s engine room because targeting the stern creates the least likelihood of an oil spill and is where the most expensive and difficult-to-repair equipment is located.[5] The nature and location on the ship of the attack suggest that Ukrainian forces intended to disable the ship without generating significant ecological consequences. Ukrainian forces have long targeted the Kerch Strait Bridge in order to degrade Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine, and the attack on the SIG is likely part of a wider effort to disable ships involved in supplying Russian military forces and the location of the attack near the bridge suggests that it was part of a larger effort to disrupt Russian logistics along a key Russian ground line of communication (GLOC).

Ukrainian officials issued a notice to mariners that Ukraine may strike vessels near Russia’s Black Sea ports – a measured response to continued Russian strikes against Odesa – Ukraine's main port – since July 17. The Ukrainian State Hydrographic Service at the State Service of Maritime and River Transport posted a notice to mariners on August 4 announcing a “military threat” in the vicinity of the internal and external roadsteads at the ports of Taman, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, and Sochi, until further notice.[8] The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also cryptically tweeted ”Two can play that game,” without further context on August 5 - likely a reference to the Russian military’s continued strikes against Odesa’s port infrastructure since July 17.[9] This Ukrainian warning may deter merchant activity and international commercial shipping to and from Russia in the Black Sea.

Ukrainian naval strikes are likely part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations. A Ukrainian naval drone struck the Russian Olenegorsky Gornyak Ropucha-class landing ship on the night of August 3 to 4.[10] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov stated on August 5 that the damage to the Olenegorsky Gornyak is very significant and suggested that the ship will not be operational for some time.[11] The UK Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that images of the ship show it listing at 30 to 40 degrees, which suggests either that several watertight compartments were breached by the drone strike or that the crew’s efforts to control the damage were ineffective.[12] UK MoD reported that the Olenegorsky Gornyak is typically assigned to Russia’s Northern Fleet but has lately been ferrying military and civilian traffic between Russia and occupied Crimea following traffic disruptions to the Kerch Strait Bridge caused by previous Ukrainian strikes.[13] Previous Ukrainian interdiction efforts have mainly focused on Russian military targets on land, but it seems that Ukrainian forces are now expanding their efforts to include naval targets as part of these efforts. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated their commitment to a deliberate interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in order to degrade Russian logistics and defensive capabilities to set favorable conditions for future Ukrainian counteroffensive activity. Ukrainian forces are thus continuing to set conditions for future decisive operations via an interdiction campaign as they did before and during counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts in 2022, now striking much deeper into Russian rear areas and incorporating maritime targets.

Ukrainian forces continue to draw Russian forces to the Bakhmut area and fix them there despite a slower tempo of Ukrainian operations there. Ukrainian offensive operations on Bakhmut’s southern and northern flanks have slowed in recent days, and Russian and Ukrainian sources did not report any Ukrainian ground attacks in the area on August 5.[15] The rate of Ukrainian advances in the Bakhmut area has also slowed in recent weeks. Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut have drawn additional Russian units and formations to the Bakhmut area and have kept Russian forces in the area, which was likely one of their primary objectives. Russian forces have deployed elite formations and units to support defensive operations around Bakhmut, including elements of the 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division, the 11th VDV Brigade, the 106th VDV Division, and the 364th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff Main Directorate).[16] ISW has also observed speculation that elements of the 31st VDV Brigade are now defending Bakhmut’s southern flank and inconclusive footage suggesting that elements of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Guards Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) recently arrived in the Bakhmut direction.[17] The arrival of these units and formations in the Bakhmut area represents the commitment of a sizable amount of combat power that Russian forces could otherwise have used to support offensive operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts or to reinforce Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations also appear to be successfully fixing Russian forces in this area, as ISW has yet to observe elements of these forces deploying to other parts of Ukraine. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on August 4 that Russian forces are continuing to commit a large number of forces in the Bakhmut direction in hopes of recapturing recently lost dominant heights north of Bakhmut City.

Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in southern Ukraine on August 5, part of a continuing pattern of limited Ukrainian ground attacks accompanying Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian logistics and headquarters in rear areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia) directions. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in both areas and are advancing near Orikhiv.[19] Russian sources have routinely characterized Ukrainian attacks in southern Ukraine as up to a company in size with minimal armored vehicle or tank support.[20] These small Ukrainian ground attacks indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to conserve uncommitted reserves for larger mechanized attacks. Limited Ukrainian ground attacks can set conditions for larger mechanized attacks when the Ukrainian deep interdiction campaign has generated effects on the battlefield and can also support Ukrainian efforts to achieve an asymmetrical attrition gradient. Larger Ukrainian mechanized offensive operations have been sporadic since the start of the counteroffensive in early June, and ISW did not observe visual evidence or other observable signatures indicating a large assault near Orikhiv that Russian sources claimed occurred on July 26.[21] Russian sources may have exaggerated the Ukrainian attack in order to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive operations as a failure. The New York Times reported that two anonymous Pentagon officials said on July 26 the ”main thrust” of the counteroffensive had begun, although it was not clear if those officials were referring to the July 26 attack, and other unnamed US officials subsequently walked those comments back.[22] Ukrainian forces are clearly not committing to large, massed mechanized counteroffensive operations in the Zaporizhia direction as their interdiction campaign proceeds, although they continue to conduct a series of variously-sized but relatively small attacks across the front line that are having the effects of fixing Russian forces in place, tiring them, and attriting them, as ISW has previously observed.

Senior officials from reportedly 40 countries, including the US, China, and India, began talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 aimed at drafting a set of key principles to guide the future settlement of the war in Ukraine. US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby stated on August 3 that the White House does not expect any “tangible deliverables” from the talks in Saudi Arabia and that the talks are a continuation of the process to promote a peace formula proposed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two consecutive days.
Ukrainian officials issued a notice to mariners that Ukraine may strike vessels near Russia’s Black Sea ports – a measured response to continued Russian strikes against Odesa – Ukraine's main port – since July 17.
Ukrainian naval strikes are likely part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations.
Ukrainian forces continue to draw Russian forces to the Bakhmut area and fix them there despite a slower tempo of Ukrainian operations there.
Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in southern Ukraine on August 5, part of a continuing pattern of limited Ukrainian ground attacks accompanying Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian logistics and headquarters in rear areas.
Senior officials from reportedly 40 countries, including the US, China, and India, began talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 aimed at drafting a set of key principles to guide the future settlement of the war in Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, along the Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kreminna line and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kremmina line.
Pardoned Wagner Group convict fighters continue to increase recidivism rates in Russia.
Russian officials continue to transport Ukrainian children from occupied regions to Russia under the guise of summer vacations.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5-2023

Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance
Figure 7: Multilayered Defenses North of Mykhailivka, Ukraine
Photo: Copyright © 2023 by Planet


Table of Contents
Introduction
The Offense-Defense Balance
How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?
What Obstacles Could a Ukrainian Offensive Face?
Lessons for Ukraine: Shifting the Advantage to the Offense
Next Steps:

Chapter One- The Offense-Defense Balance

The Offense-Defense Balance
The offense-defense balance is the relative strength between the offense and the defense in warfare. The core idea behind the offense-defense balance is that there are several factors, such as technology and geography, that can influence the relative benefits and costs of attacking versus defending.[2] These factors impact whether the offense or defense has the advantage.[3] As political scientist Robert Jervis wrote in one of the most influential works on the topic: “When we say that the offense has the advantage, we simply mean that it is easier to destroy the other’s army and take its territory than it is to defend one’s own. When the defense has the advantage, it is easier to protect and to hold than it is to move forward, destroy, and take.”[4] The offense has the advantage if the expected benefits of attacking outweigh its costs by more than the expected benefits of defending outweigh its costs.

Several factors relevant to the current war in Ukraine impact the offense-defense balance. The first is technology. Innovations that can help a military to conduct maneuver warfare and swiftly advance into enemy-controlled territory may favor the offense. For example, advances in military mobility—such as tanks, fighter aircraft, chariots, horse cavalry, or even earlier critical components (such as the stirrup)—have sometimes favored the offense.[5] These technologies—and how militaries employ them—have increased the possibility that forces can punch through opponents’ lines and exploit their breakthroughs.

Conversely, advances that decrease mobility—such as moats, land mines, trenches, and barbed wire—have sometimes favored the defense. Firepower such as machine guns, fast-firing rifles, infantry anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems have also favored the defense.[6] The high lethality of these weapons increases the need for cover and concealment, allowing the defender to fight from prepared positions while the attacker must advance over relatively open ground.

A second factor that impacts the offense-defense balance is geography. Terrain that includes flat plains, open fields, and deserts can favor the offense because these features offer good visibility, ample room for maneuver, and fewer natural obstacles. Open terrain generally allows for easier mobility, flanking maneuvers, and the potential to rapidly concentrate forces at critical points.

Terrain that slows movement or makes it difficult to provide logistics—such as thick forests, dense jungles, swamps, mountainous terrain with few passes, and rivers and other bodies of water with few or no bridges—often strengthens the defense. Such geographic barriers can force attacks into the few roads, bridges, or passes that are available, thus reducing the defender’s intelligence difficulties as well as shortening the length of the front requiring defense. During the Cold War, for instance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s plans for defending West Germany focused on the North German plain and the Fulda Gap, a pair of lowland corridors near the border between East and West Germany, because these were two places where major mechanized offensives against West Germany seemed feasible.

Distance also often favors the defense. If the attacker must travel a considerable distance just to reach the defender’s territory, the amount of force it can project is reduced by the costs of transporting and supplying the projected force, as well as the costs of defending long lines of communication.[8] In addition, the offense-defense balance depends, in part, on how much territory the attacker is trying to take. More ambitious offensive missions, including those designed to take more territory, tend to be more difficult than less ambitious ones.

Weather can further impact the offense-defense balance.[10] In cold weather climates, frozen ground can support the offensive movement of mechanized forces in winter. As the Soviet army discovered during its invasion of Finland in November 1939, however, winter fighting can also mean operating in conditions of biting cold and deep snow. In the spring in some parts of the world, including Ukraine, mechanized forces have to deal with the Rasputitsa, or thaw, during which the ground turns to mud and the advantage may shift to the defense. During the summer in Ukraine, however, the steppes dry out and allow for better movement of tracked and wheeled vehicles.

There are other factors that can impact the offense-defense balance, such as clever strategies, force employment, leadership, and combat motivation.[11] Today, the challenge for the Ukrainian military and its Western supporters is to leverage technology, geography, strategy, force employment, leadership, combat motivation, and other factors to increase the relative benefits and reduce the costs of offensive operations. Conversely, the task for Russia is to build strong enough defenses (such as trenches and berms), layer these defenses with sufficient weapons systems (such as surface-to-air missiles and artillery), and utilize favorable terrain to blunt successful Ukrainian counterattacks.
Chapter Two to be published tomorrow: How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?

https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-offensive-operations-shifting-offense-defense-balance

Drive a Lada, Putin tells Russian business chiefs
Russian leader tells top officials they should all switch to using domestic cars.
BY CLAUDIA CHIAPPA
AUGUST 3, 2023 4:43 PM CET
1 MINUTE READ
Foreign cars are out; Russian motors are in.

That was the message from Russian President Vladimir Putin to officials Thursday during a meeting with the heads of manufacturing businesses, reported state-run news agency TASS.

"Ministries, agencies, and the administration of affairs have asked to continue [purchases], to emphasize, in fact, foreign-made cars, to continue this practise," Putin said. "I said that this should be absolutely excluded and all officials of the country should drive domestic cars."

Russia’s car market has suffered in recent years, hurt under the weight of sanctions and international companies pulling out of the market. Carmakers such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and Nissan have all suspended work in Russia because of the Kremlin's war on Ukraine, leaving more space in the market for Russian brands.

Moving to driving domestic cars will be “more modest than before,” Putin admitted, but he said that it’s a good thing.

“All of our officials are wonderful, but they should realize that we should strive to develop domestic brands of cars and other domestic products,” Putin said.

Lada is Russia's most iconic car brand — though Putin himself has been spotted in the more luxurious Russian brand, Aurus.

The Crimean Peninsula is both a playground and a battleground, coveted by Ukraine and Russia

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-crimea-peninsula-dff3484da824e11afc92c83ecf19f71b

Moscow (AFP) – Russia said Monday it plans to launch a lunar lander this week after multiple delays, hoping to return to the Moon for the first time in nearly fifty years.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...-mission-friday-first-in-nearly-50-years

"The Luna-25 will have to practise soft landing, take and analyse soil samples and conduct long-term scientific research," Roscosmos said in a statement.

The four-legged lander, which weighs around 800 kilograms (1,750 pounds), is expected to touch down in the region of the lunar south pole. By contrast, most previous Moon landings have occurred near the lunar equator.

The spacecraft is expected to reach the Moon around five days after launch.

Update from the Institute for the Study of War.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 7, 2023
Aug 7, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2023

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, and Mason Clark

August 7, 2023, 5pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00pm ET on August 7. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 7[ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[1] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that fighting is ongoing south of Bakhmut and that eastern Ukraine has been the epicenter of hostilities in the past week.[2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in an interview published on August 6 with Argentine news outlet La Nacion that the tempo of counteroffensive operations is slower than expected and stated that patience is necessary in order for Ukraine to win.[3] Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces are in the offensive phase of operations and continue to hold the initiative.

Russian forces and occupation administrators continue to seek to mitigate the impact of recent Ukrainian strikes on logistics nodes along key Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea with occupied Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk noted that Ukrainian strikes on the Chonhar and Henichesk bridges were intended to specifically target Russian plans and strategies and inhibit the ability of Russian forces to bring supplies and personnel to the front.[5] Humenyuk also emphasized that Russian forces must now route supplies and personnel through Armyansk, directly on the border between Kherson Oblast and Crimea and within 80km of the frontline.[6] Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo reported that his administration has temporarily changed the logistics and vehicle crossing routes between occupied Kherson and Crimea due to damage to the Chonhar Bridge, including the suspension of bus traffic between Simferopol, Crimea and Henichesk, Kherson Oblast.[7] Russian milbloggers notably did not comment on the aftermath of the strikes on August 7, further supporting ISW’s previous assessment that Russian officials may have directed Russian correspondents to not offer commentary on Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics nodes in Crimea to avoid generating panic within the information space.

Russian opposition media outlet Verstka suggested that the Russian Investigative Committee and its head, Alexander Bastrykin, are directly involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and the forced placement of Ukrainian children into Russian military training programs.[9] Verstka reported that the Russian Investigative Committee “took patronage” over Ukrainian children living in children‘s homes throughout Russia, and sent its employees to 10 such homes with toys, clothes, and school supplies in order to coerce the children to enter the Russian cadet corps. Verstka reported that Bastrykin personally visited Ukrainian children in Russia and told them that Russian victory depend on the children and that the Russian Investigative Committee is there to support them. Verstka reported that the Investigative Committee previously advertised the cadet corps to Ukrainian children from Donbas and stated that 78 Ukrainian children entered educational institutions, including the cadet corps and academies affiliated with the Investigative Committee, between February 2022 and March 2023. Verstka reported that Bastrykin ordered the cadet corps in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Volgograd to prepare to receive Ukrainian children from occupied Donbas as early as February 25, 2022. Verstka highlighted statements from Ukrainian children who said they felt compelled to participate in the Russian cadet corps due to the educational opportunity. The coercion of Ukrainian children, who are legally unable to consent to their deportations and participation in such military-patriotic re-education programs, is likely part of an ongoing Russian campaign to eradicate the Ukrainian national identity and militarize youth who have been forcibly deported to Russia.

China's increasing misalignment with Russia on any settlement to end the war in Ukraine was reportedly evident at the talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5-6. The Financial Times reported that the Chinese representatives at the meeting were “constructive” and “keen to show that [China] is not Russia.”[10] The Financial Times quoted one European diplomat present at the talks as saying that the “mere presence of China shows Russia is more and more isolated.”[11] The Chinese delegation reportedly indicated its willingness to attend the next meeting of a similar format that will likely also exclude Russia.[12] A Russian insider source alleged that Russia has rejected China's 12-point peace plan for the war in Ukraine from February 2023 (which the Chinese delegation re-introduced during the talks in Saudi Arabia) and that some Chinese elites are secretly expressing their dissatisfaction with the actions of the Russian leadership regarding a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine.[13] These reports from the talks in Saudi Arabia and insider allegations, if true, align with ISW’s previous assessments that China is not fully aligned with Russia on the issue of Ukraine and that Russia and China’s relationship is not a “no limits partnership” as the Kremlin desires.

The Ukrainian delegation at the talks in Saudi Arabia presented a 10-point peace plan that reportedly included calls for global food security, nuclear safety, environmental security, humanitarian aid, and prisoner releases. Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff reported that all of the members of BRICS besides Russia – Brazil, India, China, and South Africa – attended the talks.[16] Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova predictably responded to the Ukrainian peace plan, calling it a “meaningless ultimatum, which is aimed at protracting hostilities.”[17] Zakharova thereby repeated a longstanding Russian information operation that absurdly claims that Russia, unlike Ukraine, “has always been and will remain open to a diplomatic solution” to the war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted a prisoner-of-war (POW) exchange on August 7. Ukrainian officials reported that 22 Ukrainian soldiers returned to Ukraine and did not state how many Russian POWs returned to Russia.[19] Official Russian sources have not reported on the POW exchange and Russian milbloggers have notably not commented on it either. Russian milbloggers have often criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) when POW exchanges are not carried out on a one-to-one ratio between Ukrainian and Russian personnel.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 7.
Russian forces and occupation administrators continue to seek to mitigate the impact of recent Ukrainian strikes on logistics nodes along key Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Crimea with occupied Kherson Oblast.
Russian opposition media outlet Verstka suggested that the Russian Investigative Committee and its head, Alexander Bastrykin, are directly involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and the forced placement of Ukrainian children into Russian military training programs.
China's increasing misalignment with Russia on any settlement to end the war in Ukraine was reportedly evident at the talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5-6.
The Ukrainian delegation at the talks in Saudi Arabia presented a 10-point peace plan that reportedly included calls for global food security, nuclear safety, environmental security, humanitarian aid, and prisoner releases.
Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted a prisoner-of-war (POW) exchange on August 7.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 7 and made advances in certain areas.
The Kremlin continues efforts to portray itself as adequately mobilizing the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war effort.
Russian occupation authorities continue to use maternity capital benefits to coerce Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories to accept Russian citizenship and increase social control in occupied areas.[/b]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-7-2023

Just wait until the US gives Ukraine ICBMs ! ! !

Ukraine's foreign minister asks U.S. for long-range missiles

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...s-atacms-long-range-missiles-2023-08-07/

Affected people and statistics
By Reuters · Updated: 1 day ago

Deaths
At least 62,295 people

Non-fatal injuries
At least 61,000 people

Missing
At least 15,000 people

Expelled
About 17 million people

Destroyed buildings
At least 140,000

Material damage
About US$411 billion.

Update from the Institute for the Study of War

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 9, 2023
Aug 9, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2023

Nicole Wolkov, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 9, 2023, 6:30 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00pm ET on August 9. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Speculations about the Wagner Group’s withdrawal from Belarus suggest that aspects of the deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24 have collapsed. A Russian insider source claimed on August 8 that Wagner forces are conducting their first stage of withdrawal from Belarus by bussing groups of 500 to 600 personnel from Belarus to Krasnodar Krai and Voronezh and Rostov oblasts and that the second stage will begin after August 13.[1] The insider source and a Wagner-affiliated source speculated that Wagner forces may be leaving Belarus because Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko refused to finance Wagner when he discovered that Russia would not be paying for Wagner as he had evidently expected.[2] Putin and Lukashenko allowed Wagner forces and Prigozhin to continue to operate in Belarus after the armed rebellion.[3] The insider source claimed that a small group of Wagner instructors would remain in Belarus to train Belarusian forces.[4] ISW has not observed visual evidence of Wagner forces moving out of Belarus, however. The insider source claimed on August 6 that Wagner forces that did not deploy to Libya “urgently” went on leave in Russia, and that Wagner's command called on their fighters to keep in touch because new orders could come at any time.[5] Wagner-affiliated sources claimed that the main Wagner forces will “activate” at the end of August but did not elaborate on the statement.[6] Claims that Wagner forces are moving out of Belarus — a relatively safe haven for Wagner and Prigozhin — back to Russia, Wagner command’s mentions of new orders, and claims of the future “activation” of Wagner forces at the end of August likely suggest that aspects of the deal that allowed Wagner to move to Belarus and continue operations there and in Africa have collapsed.

The validity of these claims and the future of the Wagner Group remain unclear at the time of publication. ISW offers the following assessments and hypotheses for the potential implications of these claims, if true, on the Russian power composition, Putin’s regime, and the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) efforts to integrate Wagner personnel into conventional Russian formations. ISW will continue to monitor and report on indicators and counter-indicators that support, undermine, or inform these hypotheses and assessments.

Putin is likely still concerned about the threat that Prigozhin poses to his long-term goals and continues to focus on definitively separating Prigozhin from Wagner. Putin has previously attempted to present Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reputation among Wagner personnel and within Russian society and to rhetorically separate Prigozhin from Wagner.[7] ISW assessed on June 27 that the Kremlin would likely continue to attack Prigozhin’s character to break Prigozhin’s popular support, discourage Wagner personnel from following him to Belarus, and destroy his financial power.[8] Putin’s June 29 meeting with Prigozhin and 35 Wagner commanders further indicated that Putin intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up while also seeking to separate Prigozhin from Wagner leadership and forces.[9] Prigozhin’s presence at a Wagner base near Asipovichy, Belarus, on July 18 and on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg on July 27 suggests that Prigozhin has maintained his position as the effective leader of the Wagner Group and that Putin has thus far failed to separate Prigozhin from Wagner.[10] A Russian insider source claimed on August 9 that the Kremlin’s rhetorical attacks against Prigozhin decreased dramatically after Putin’s meeting with Wagner leadership on June 29, but began to increase again in early August.[11] An increase in Kremlin attacks on Prigozhin, if true, could indicate that Putin has recommitted to his original goal of destroying Prigozhin and creating a clear separation between Prigozhin and Wagner.

Putin’s prioritization of separating Prigozhin from Wagner and attempting to maintain a reconstituted Wagner fighting element appears to be at odds with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s objectives. A Russian insider source claimed that Shoigu has taken over Russia’s relationships with African countries from Prigozhin, angering the Wagner leadership and personnel and depriving Wagner of opportunities in Africa.[12] If true, Shoigu’s ambitions in Africa are likely to create issues for Putin’s greater goals with Wagner by angering the very people Putin is trying to woo. Putin’s and Shoigu’s priorities have become periodically misaligned throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, often when Putin prioritizes balancing competing groups and interests while Shoigu attempts to establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine.

Alternatively, Putin may intend for Wagner's forces to return to Russia in order to facilitate the destruction or restructuring of Wagner. Putin appealed to Wagner commanders in a speech on July 26 seeking to persuade them to continue to fight in Ukraine by joining the Russian military.[14] Putin’s appeal may have suggested that the Kremlin intended to organize Wagner forces into the Russian MoD. This appeal appears not to have been successful as many Wagner personnel deployed to Belarus and individual Wagner commanders and personnel continued to express loyalty to Wagner and Prigozhin.[15] The Kremlin has also reportedly attempted to control Wagner’s operations in the Middle East and subordinate Wagner's operations there to the Russian MoD following the rebellion on June 24.[16] Wagner commanders released a statement on August 9 claiming that Wagner fighters have been receiving calls advertising opportunities to work with other private military companies (PMCs) in Africa.[17] The calls may suggest that the Russian government seeks to lure Wagner personnel away from Wagner with new work opportunities. Putin may intend for Wagner's forces to return to Russia so that he can more easily facilitate Wagner’s subordination to the Russian MoD or disband the organization entirely.

There are other possible outcomes that would see Wagner reconstitute as a unitary fighting force reminiscent of its operations in Ukraine, although ISW has observed no indicators for these outcomes, which appear unlikely based on available information. The Kremlin’s likeliest courses of action vis-à-vis Wagner will likely lead to an overall decrease in the combat power that Wagner could offer the Russian military, as either approach will likely dissuade some elements of Wagner from continuing to serve, whether in a Wagner without Prigozhin or in some type of entity completely subordinated to the MoD.

The likely collapse of aspects of the Wagner-Putin-Lukashenko deal indicates that Putin has failed to decisively resolve issues posed by Prigozhin and Wagner following Wagner’s June 24 rebellion. Putin is unlikely to resolve the Wagner problem as long as tensions remain between Putin’s own aim of separating Prigozhin from Wagner and Shoigu’s aims to secure full MoD control over Wagner and the other armed forces fighting for Russia. Speculations about Shoigu taking over Russian military operations in Africa from Wagner, if true, will likely only exacerbate tensions between the MoD and Wagner personnel returning from Belarus or Africa to Russia rather than persuading the Wagner personnel to join conventional Russian military formations in accord with the prior deal.[18] Pro-Wagner sources have historically coalesced around Prigozhin because of anger at the MoD and likely retain the ability to rally the support of Wagner rank-and-file and supporters regardless of Prigozhin‘s actual participation in current rhetoric.[19] Angering Wagner personnel further while bringing them back to Russia poses challenges if Putin seeks to eliminate the Wagner threat. Putin’s decision to allow Shoigu to undermine this aspect of the prior deal, if true, then threatens to undermine the careful façade of internal security that Putin has extensively attempted to project following the June 24 rebellion.[20] This situation is evolving dynamically in an increasingly complicated information environment marked by the absence of direct commentary from Prigozhin or other Wagner leaders. ISW will continue to evaluate these and other hypotheses and assessments as more information becomes available.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attempted to justify the recreation of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts by reamplifying boilerplate rhetoric posturing NATO as an existential threat to Russia. Shoigu opened a meeting of the Russian MoD Collegium on August 9, focusing on issues related to the creation of the two military districts but primarily commented on Western support for Ukraine and NATO’s expansion.[21] Shoigu stated that the NATO countries’ attempts to help Ukraine win are creating serious risks for further escalation and that Finland’s accession and Sweden’s planned accession to NATO are “a serious destabilizing factor.”[22] Shoigu stated that it is likely that NATO will deploy military contingents and strike weapons on Finnish territory that can strike critical targets in Russia, and Shoigu accused NATO of intentionally militarizing Poland as part of America’s alleged anti-Russia policy.[23] Shoigu stated that Eastern European militaries have a combined manpower of 360,000 personnel with 8,000 armored vehicles, 6,000 artillery systems, and 650 aviation units deployed to the immediate vicinity of the borders of the Union State.[24] Shoigu suggested that the Russian MoD is strengthening the Russian grouping of forces along Russia’s western borders to respond to these alleged threats.[25] Shoigu announced on January 17, 2023, that the MoD will reestablish the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts as part of long-term goals to significantly increase the size of the Russian military.[26] Shoigu is likely framing the recreation of these military districts as a necessary response to alleged Western aggression towards Russia in order to justify the cost of resources, time, and institutional capacity required for their recreation.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in some areas on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut, Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area), and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[27] Geolocated footage published on August 9 suggests that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but the duration and extent of these advances are currently unclear.[28] Ukrainian Tavriisk Operational and Strategic Group of Forces Spokesperson Serhii Kuzmin stated on August 8 that Ukrainian forces reached the Russian first line of defense in an unspecified area in the Melitopol or Berdyansk directions.[29] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on August 9 that Ukrainian forces were partially successful south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Pryyutne and southeast of Orikhiv near Verbove.[30] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced into Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and suggested that Ukrainian forces may have captured some Russian positions south of Bakhmut.[31] Malyar stated that the Ukrainian forces are conducting the counteroffensive as expected and are successfully degrading Russian offensive potential as Ukrainian forces did during the summer-autumn 2022 interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.

The Russian veteran community may be attempting to rehabilitate the nominal Russian deputy theater commander in Ukraine, Army General Sergei Surovikin, following scrutiny over his affiliation with the Wagner Group. Surovikin’s former commander, Colonel General Valeriy Marchenkov, told state affiliated URA.ru outlet that Surovikin did not and could not ever renege on his oath and praised Surovikin for pioneering a defensive strategy that is slowing down Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine.[33] Marchenkov claimed that Surovikin successfully reduced the frontline length and strategically redistributed Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast. Marchenkov also defended Surovikin’s decision to withdraw Russian troops from the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast in November 2022, stating that this decision allowed Russian forces to construct the current defensive lines in Kherson Oblast and prevent military and civilian deaths. Marchenkov also attributed the creation of the Russian military police to Surovikin and boasted about Surovikin’s efforts to suppress the August 1991 coup in Moscow. Russian veterans communities were instrumental in rehabilitating and promoting Surovikin’s claimed affiliate, Russian Airborne (VDV) Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, in March-April 2023.[34] Russian VDV veterans appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin on behalf of Teplinsky, after which Teplinsky returned to the frontlines ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[35] Former Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army Major General Ivan Popov has also rallied veteran and army groups, sparking a discussion around his removal from command in mid-July.

Marchenkov’s interview may suggest that Surovikin and the anti-Gerasimov faction believe there is a chance for Surovikin to return to the frontlines. Marchenkov’s public defense of Surovikin is in line with previous veteran efforts to secure the reinstatement of commanders who oppose Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov. Marchenkov notably did not publicly disclose Surovikin’s whereabouts. One Russian insider source claimed that the Kremlin’s agreements with Wagner began to “sag,” a claim that accords with ISW’s assessments as noted above, which the source claimed can explain the lack of a new appointment for Surovikin.[37] ISW assessed on April 30 that Putin fails to decisively dismiss commanders and instead demotes them in order to encourage them to seek to regain his favor and to retain options for future appointments.[38] Surovikin’s return to command will likely depend on his ability to convince Putin of his loyalty and usefulness on the battlefield – both narratives presented in Marchenkov’s interview.

Russian sources claimed that poor safety regulations led to an explosion near the Zagorsk Optical Mechanical Plant in Moscow on August 9, and notably, most Russian sources did not suggest that Ukrainian actors may have been responsible for the incident.[39] The explosion caused widespread damage to the plant and surrounding areas, injured at least 60 people, and killed at least one person.[40] The explosion reportedly occurred at a facility at the plant leased by Russian pyrotechnics company PiroRoss, and the Russian authorities have reportedly opened a criminal case against PiroRoss for the violation of industrial safety requirements.[41] Russian sources also claimed that Russian authorities have detained PiroRoss Director Sergei Chanakev in connection with the explosion.[42] Shvabe Holding Company, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, owns the Zagorsk Optical Mechanical Plant, and the plant produces pyrotechnics and precision optical equipment for the military.[43] Russian media outlet Agentstvo reported that the Zagorsk Optical Mechanical Plant has also been participating in the development of a next-generation strategic stealth bomber “Poslannik” since 2019.


Key Takeaways:

Speculations about the Wagner Group’s withdrawal from Belarus suggest that aspects of the deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24 have collapsed.
Putin is likely still concerned about the threat that Prigozhin poses to his long-term goals and continues to focus on definitively separating Prigozhin from Wagner.
Alternatively, Putin may intend for Wagner's forces to return to Russia in order to facilitate the destruction or restructuring of Wagner.
The likely collapse of aspects of the Wagner-Putin-Lukashenko deal indicates that Putin has failed to decisively resolve issues posed by Prigozhin and Wagner following Wagner’s June 24 rebellion.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attempted to justify the recreation of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts by reamplifying boilerplate rhetoric posturing NATO as an existential threat to Russia.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in some areas on August 9.
The Russian veteran community may be attempting to rehabilitate the nominal Russian deputy theater commander in Ukraine, Army General Sergei Surovikin, following scrutiny over his affiliation with the Wagner Group.
Marchenkov’s interview may suggest that Surovikin and the anti-Gerasimov faction believe there is a chance for Surovikin to return to the frontlines.
Russian sources claimed that poor safety regulations led to an explosion near the Zagorsk Optical Mechanical Plant in Moscow on August 9, and notably most Russian sources did not suggest that Ukrainian actors may have been responsible for the incident.
Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced on the Svatove-Kreminna line, north of Bakhmut, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in some areas on August 9.
Footage published on August 9 further supports ISW’s assessments that the Ukrainian incursion near Kozachi Laheri in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on August 8 was likely a limited raid.
Russian forces may be moving military equipment through Kazakhstan to Russia, but ISW has observed no geolocated footage confirming these reports.
Russian officials appear to be setting conditions to justify the possible need to cancel or postpone regional elections in the occupied territories in case of Ukrainian counteroffensive successes.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-9-2023

CSIS
Center for Strategic and International Studies


Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance
Figure 7: Multilayered Defenses North of Mykhailivka, Ukraine
Photo: Copyright © 2023 by Planet


Table of Contents
Introduction
The Offense-Defense Balance
How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?
What Obstacles Could a Ukrainian Offensive Face?
Lessons for Ukraine: Shifting the Advantage to the Offense
Next Steps:

Chapter Two How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?
To shift the offense-defense balance in its favor, Russia has designed one of the largest defensive systems in Europe since World War II. It has constructed a line of fortifications roughly 2,000 kilometers long, running from Russia’s border with Belarus to the Dnipro Delta.[12] Approximately 1,000 kilometers of these defenses are located in Ukraine itself, where essentially all conventional warfare between Russia and Ukraine has taken place. Russia’s fieldworks include four semi-independent defensive systems, each of which roughly corresponds to a Ukrainian oblast.

The area that has been most extensively fortified since the 2022 invasion is Zaporizhzhia Oblast, followed by Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts, as highlighted in Figure 1.[13] Although the defensive systems in each oblast are generally built from the same components—ditches, dragon’s teeth, trenches, and artillery positions—each has unique characteristics that represent particular challenges to a Ukrainian offensive.

Overall, Russian defenses are designed to slow a Ukrainian offensive and to channel it into areas advantageous to Russian forces. The Russian fortifications visible in satellite imagery confront Ukrainian military planners with difficult trade-offs. The first dilemma is whether to commit forces against the densely defended approaches to Crimea, the urban areas that dominate Donetsk Oblast, or the more sparsely fortified but less strategically important areas in Luhansk. A Ukrainian offensive against the oblasts bordering Crimea carries further hard choices, forcing commanders to fight through layers of defensive positions more than 10 kilometers deep in Zaporizhzhia or to cross the Dnipro River, a difficult operation that carries the subsequent challenge of defending a beachhead from a counterattack. No matter what their commanders choose, Ukrainian forces will also be subject to repeated counterattacks from multiple directions seeking to isolate combat units from the support they need to sustain the offensive.

Zaporizhzhia: A System of Systems
The Zaporizhzhia defensive system consists of roughly three subsystems, as illustrated in Figure 2. The first is an approximately 150-kilometer frontline system that stretches from the town of Vasylivka on the southeastern edge of the Kakhovka Reservoir to the town of Novopetrykivka on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border. This system consists of multiple layers of counter-mobility barriers and infantry trenches in the frontline area supported by prepared artillery positions less than 30 kilometers to the rear, just ahead of the second subsystem of prepared defenses. This longer line also contains another set of defenses around the town of Vasylivka, making the westernmost edge of the line particularly densely fortified.

The second subsystem stretches more than 130 kilometers from the town of Orlyanske to just north of Bilmak. Its makeup differs little from the frontline system, and it could serve Russia well were it to establish a new front line following a successful Ukrainian offensive. The withdrawal of Russian forces to this second line of defenses could also serve as a prelude to Russian counterattacks against the flanks of the Ukrainian advance.

The third subsystem is a constellation of disconnected fortifications surrounding larger towns close to the front line, most of which occupy commanding positions on major railways or roads, and smaller fieldworks along important roadways. None of these fortifications would be sufficient to rapidly establish a new front line in the case of a Russian collapse, but they could slow a Ukrainian breakthrough, enable Russian counterattacks, and prevent the total collapse of the Russian front.

The distance between these subsystems varies, but the territory between them should not be seen as undefended space. Russian doctrine emphasizes both positional and mobile defenses.[14] Russia would likely seek to engage Ukrainian vehicles in these areas using a combination of indirect fire—potentially including airstrikes—and its own fighting vehicles. A Ukrainian breakthrough would likely trigger a rush of Russian armored reserves to the area, where they would seek to engage Ukrainian forces in open terrain while the second and third subsystems underwent final preparations for combat.

The cumulative effect of these systems would be to array Russia’s strongest resistance against Ukrainian efforts to break through to Melitopol or Berdiansk cities. These preparations reflect the high military and political value Russia attaches to control of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A Russian collapse like the one seen in Kharkiv in 2022 that allowed Ukraine to approach or liberate these cities would pose a serious threat to Russia’s operations in Ukraine. A Ukrainian push through the second defensive line would allow Ukraine to hold Russia’s supply lines in the country at risk, effectively splitting its military effort between two theaters. It would also threaten to reverse the forcible creation of a land bridge to occupied Crimea. Such a breakthrough approaches a worst-case scenario for Russia and therefore incentivizes the construction of a defensive system of the depth and density seen in Zaporizhzhia.

Kherson: Behind a Wall of Water
Kherson’s defensive system is also arrayed around defending approaches to Crimea, but it is less dependent on multiple layers of fortifications because of the oblast’s terrain, which favors the defender. Russia has constructed a set of defenses along the Dnipro Delta across from the city of Kherson and at wide intervals along the Dnipro River. These spans of water are wide enough that they would require amphibious assaults, one of the most complex and demanding operations a military can attempt.

Any such assault would be contested by Russian forces in that first line of defenses, and even the most successful crossings of the river would not lead to a dramatic exploitation of Russian rear areas. The logistics involved in supporting such an exploitation across a large body of water are far more complicated than those involved in a ground offensive without such an obstacle. Russia has also constructed a large number of fieldworks to make such an advance even more difficult. Trenches stud the roads in Kherson every few kilometers, which would slow any effort to reach major logistics hubs and trigger the collapse of the Kherson front.

On June 6, 2023, a major dam and power station on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine were destroyed, causing a significant outflow of water. The flooding prompted evacuations in areas downriver from the Kakhovka dam, including in some parts of the city of Kherson.

Donetsk: Fighting Block by Block
The Donetsk front is characterized by a combination of new and old defensive fortifications and complex urban terrain. These factors coupled with the front line’s proximity to Russia itself make a Ukrainian breakthrough in the region unlikely to result in significant exploitation.

Russian units in Donetsk may be able to benefit from defensive positions dug before the 2022 invasion, unlike their counterparts in other parts of Ukraine. The oblast was the site of combat between Ukraine and Russian proxies for almost eight years before the 2022 invasion. As visible in Figure 4, pre-2022 fortifications outnumber post-2022 fortifications approximately three-to-one.

The benefits of these fortifications to Russian fighters will likely be uneven. The quality and readiness of these fortifications are extremely difficult to assess.[16] Some have likely been in disuse so long that they will not give Russian soldiers the full benefits of a recently prepared defensive position, and some are Ukrainian defensive positions that are oriented to defend against an attack moving away from Russia rather than toward it.

The defensive system in Donetsk incorporates two layers of defenses around the town of Olhynka, where several roads meet, but otherwise appears to rely more on the three cities of Donetsk, Makiivka, and Horlivka, as illustrated in Figure 5. A Ukrainian attempt to push through either of these cities is extremely unlikely for an excellent reason: if Ukraine attempted to assault these cities directly, its offensive would become bogged down in urban combat.

Bakhmut has recently become emblematic of the difficulty of fighting in built-up areas, but any combat in these cities would be on another order of magnitude. Horlivka, the smallest of the three frontline cities, had a pre-invasion population of about 240,000 and has an area of more than 400 square kilometers. In comparison, Bakhmut had a pre-war population of about 70,000 and an area of about 40 square kilometers. Any attempt to overrun either of these cities would make the battle of Bakhmut seem like a skirmish in comparison.

Ukraine could conceivably try to bypass either of the cities, but Russia has constructed fortifications between them. Where the cities are closest together, a single line of fieldworks may be sufficient, as a successful Ukrainian breakthrough passing close to either city would find its supply lines exposed to counterattack from city-based Russian forces. In areas further afield, Russia has constructed multiple layers of defenses somewhat comparable to those in Zaporizhzhia, but much closer together—about 5 kilometers in Donetsk compared with 30 kilometers in Zaporizhzhia. This is unlikely to spell failure for Russia. The centrality of the cities and the proximity of the front line to Russia mean that Russian reserves will be able to move into position in Donetsk far more quickly than in Zaporizhzhia and that Ukrainian logistics will face a greater threat in the event of a breakthrough.

Luhansk: Forests and Front Lines
The construction of Luhansk’s defensive system is less clear from satellite imagery than those of the other three oblasts. It appears to be broken into a southern and a northern system, with the southern system arrayed primarily around the city of Severodonetsk, and the northern system consisting of a long line of defenses reaching toward the northern border with Russia, as highlighted in Figure 6. The southern system looks a great deal like the defenses around Donetsk Oblast’s three cities and includes the front line in Bakhmut and the forests around Kreminna, where heavy fighting has been ongoing for months with few territorial gains for either side.

The areas north of Kreminna look different. Russian fortifications north of the forest appear in satellite imagery as a defensive line running from Kreminna to the Russian border, split into forward and rear subsystems (as in Zaporizhzhia) in the northernmost parts of the oblast. Many of the fortifications visible in satellite imagery may actually represent a secondary system rather than an intended front line. These fortifications lie just a few kilometers behind a string of towns that hug the eastern bank of the Krasna River. The houses in these towns would provide ready-made fortifications from which the Russians could fight, while Ukraine would be slowed by the need to conduct bridging operations. As a result, Russia might place their first echelon of defenders in these towns, using the fortifications visible in satellite imagery to contain any Ukrainian units that break through beyond the towns.

North of Preobrazhenne, where the river passes to the east of the towns, Russia once again has constructed two major lines of field fortifications, although they appear less complete than other defensive lines. For example, there is an apparent gap between the towns of Pershotravneve, Mykolaivka, and Arapivka: a potential opening less than 30 kilometers by road from Kupiansk, a city in which Ukraine could conceivably mass forces. As is the case in Zaporizhzhia, areas without fieldworks are not necessarily undefended. Russia would still seek to conduct mobile warfare in these areas north of Preobrazhenne, which have already seen tank battles in the past year. A Ukrainian offensive this far north would also create novel vulnerabilities, extending Ukraine’s flank along the Russian border, where political constraints give Russia a degree of safe haven from which to conduct a counteroffensive or strike Ukrainian forces, logistics, and civilians with standoff weapons.
Chapter Three published 8/11/2023
https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-offensive-operations-shifting-offense-defense-balance

Reports are circulating - not yet visually confirmed, but plausible - that the Wagner Group is being expelled from Belarus. It's unclear where the gang of misery settles next, maybe Russia or Africa.

Update from the Institute for the Study of War


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 11, 2023
Aug 11, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2023

Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Mason Clark

August 11, 2023, 7:45pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00pm ET on August 11. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11. Geolocated footage published on August 11 confirms that Ukrainian forces reached the northern outskirts of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast, though the permanence and extent of these positions are currently unclear.[1] Ukrainian forces have conducted regular ground attacks towards Robotyne for weeks as part of their operations aimed at degrading Russian defenses. The Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne — which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time, and resources to defend — remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time. Geolocated footage published on August 11 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced into Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces back into the settlement on August 10 and 11.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut, Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area), and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses. Russian milbloggers claimed on August 11 that elements of the 7th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division are involved in heavy fighting near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on August 10 that elements of the “Vostok Akhmat” Battalion are now defending near Robotyne.[4] Elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army’s 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (Southern Military District) have been the primary Russian formation defending immediately south of Orikhiv since the start of the counteroffensive, with elements of the 22nd and 45th Separate Guards Spetsnaz (Russian General Staff Main Directorate) brigades and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) supporting Russian defensive operations in the area.[5] The arrival of the 7th VDV Division and the Akhmat elements to the Robotyne area represents the first explicit commitment of new Russian formations and units to the area.

Kadyrov has consistently deployed Akhmat elements to perceived critical sectors of the frontline in order to earn favor from Russian President Vladimir Putin, and most recently deployed Akhmat Spetsnaz elements to the Klishchiivka area south of Bakhmut in response to Ukrainian advances in the area.[6] Russian sources claimed that elements of the 7th VDV deployed from east (left) bank Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhia direction following the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station (KHPP) dam on June 6, and ISW later observed elements of the division defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Staromayorske area along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts in July.

The 7th VDV Division is now split across at least two and possibly three axes of the front. Russian milbloggers offered diverging accounts on whether elements of the 7th VDV Division withdrew entirely from the Staromayorske area after Ukrainian forces captured the settlement on July 27.[8] Elements of the division have remained in Kherson Oblast to defend against Ukrainian activity on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[9] Elements of the 7th VDV division may have arrived in western Zaporizhia Oblast at an earlier date, although this is the first time that Russian sources have claimed that Russian command has committed these elements to fight in the area. Elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division continue to defend near Robotyne and ISW has not observed any elements of the division withdrawing from the area, indicating that the arrival of the 7th VDV Division and Akhmat elements likely does not portend a rotation for the main Russian fighting force in the Orikhiv direction.[10] These likely lateral redeployments suggest that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have significantly degraded existing defending Russian forces in the area and prompted the Russian command to send these elements to shore up Russian defenses in this critical sector of the frontline. The lack of Russian operational reserves means that the Russian command will have to conduct more lateral redeployments if they wish to reinforce certain sectors of the front in the future.

Russia’s practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front. These lateral reinforcements will likely disrupt Russian offensive and defensive operations in the sectors from which they are drawn and threaten to rapidly degrade the forces that the Russian military is using as reinforcements.[12] Russia currently does not appear to possess significant available forces that it could draw on for reinforcements without endangering other sectors of the front. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations drew elite Russian formations and units to the Bakhmut area and continue to fix them there.[13] Russian forces have also committed a significant number of forces to localized offensives operations in the Kupyansk and Svatove areas, which aim to similarly draw Ukrainian forces away from areas of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[14] Even if the Russian command determines to end localized offensive pushes in these areas it would likely take some time for Russian forces to lower the tempo of their operations and withdraw forces for lateral redeployments without opening up areas of the front to successful Ukrainian counterattacks. The limited Russian lateral redeployment of elements of the 7th VDV Division from the left bank of Kherson Oblast in June appears to have set conditions that allowed Ukrainian forces to more freely operate in the area, and Ukrainian forces will likely similarly exploit weakened Russian groupings in other areas of the front where they are actively conducting offensive operations in the event of further Russian movements.

Ukrainian forces on the other hand maintain reserves that allow them to rotate units instead of relying on redeploying units conducting defensive and offensive operations to other sectors of the line without rest.[16] Ukrainian forces likely therefore can maintain the necessary combat potential needed to continue degrading Russian forces defending southern Ukraine and the Bakhmut area while constraining Russian advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian lateral redeployments will likely increase the likelihood that Russian forces would have to fall back to prepared defensive positions without significant support in the case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.[17] The further degradation of defending Russian forces thus creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.[18]

Russian forces appear to be intensifying offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, likely to draw Ukrainian forces away from more operationally significant areas of the front. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on August 10 that Russian offensives along the front line in the Kupyansk area forced Ukrainian forces to flee to Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk) and claimed that Russian forces are threatening to collapse Ukrainian defenses in the area.[19] The milblogger predicted that Russian forces will take Petropavlivka in the next two days and continue advancing toward Kupyansk.[20] The milblogger claimed on August 11 that Russian forces have recently captured 30 Ukrainian ”strongholds” in the Kupyansk direction along a wide front from Kupyansk to Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk).[21] Another Russian milblogger claimed on August 10 that Russian forces entered the outskirts of Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk) and are less than 10km away from Ukraine’s advanced defensive lines.[22] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian claims of advances northeast of Kupyansk. Russian milbloggers have repeatedly made claims of extensive Russian advances southwest of Svatove and ISW has additionally not observed visual confirmation of those claims, despite those claims now being weeks old.[23] Russian forces may have increased offensive activity on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line to take advantage of Ukraine’s operational focus elsewhere and to draw Ukrainian units away from more critical areas of the front. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Force Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces have significantly strengthened defenses in the Kupyansk direction in recent days, indicating that Russian forces may have been successful in drawing additional Ukrainian forces to the area.[24] Ukrainian officials also announced mandatory evacuations for civilians in 53 settlements near Kupyansk on August 9 due to intensified Russian shelling and airstrikes posing increased risk for civilians, though the evacuations do not necessarily indicate that Ukrainian forces expect Russian forces to make significant advances.

Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes in Ukraine on August 11 and targeted a Ukrainian airfield for the second time in the last week. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched four Kinzhal missiles and that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted one missile over Kyiv Oblast.[26] The Ukrainian Air Force claimed that the other Kinzhal missiles struck near the Kolomyia airfield in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.[27] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces targeted the Starokostyantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast on August 6 because Ukrainian forces store foreign-supplied missiles including Storm Shadow cruise missiles at warehouses on the base.[28] Russia’s targeting of the Starokostyantyniv and Kolomyia airfields in the past week suggests that Russian forces are increasingly concerned about Ukraine’s interdiction campaign.

Russian sources claimed that the Wagner Group appears to be maintaining a presence at its facilities in Belarus, though the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russian remains unclear. A Russian milblogger posted satellite imagery captured on August 3 claiming to show that an additional 930 Wagner vehicles and 18 additional low-bed semi-trailers were present at the Wagner camp in Tsel, Asipovichy, Belarus compared to imagery from July 17.[29] The milblogger claimed that the imagery from August 3 shows that 40 shipping containers arrived and that unspecified construction is occurring at the camp.[30] The milblogger also claimed that the number of tents at the Wagner camp has not changed and that the number of cars present at the camp indicates that it is likely fully staffed.[31] Russian rumors about Wagner’s withdrawal from Belarus surfaced on August 8, so this additional satellite footage from August 3 does not completely refute those claims.[32] The footage does suggest that Wagner intended to expand its presence in Belarus and believed that elements of the deal ensuring its operations in the country were still in place as of August 3.

The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) is struggling with significant personnel shortages, especially in occupied territories in Ukraine, amid a broader power shift between other Russian internal security organs. Russian Internal Affairs Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev stated on August 10 that the MVD is struggling with a critical personnel shortage and that over 5,000 MVD personnel have left various MVD bodies within the past month.[34] Kolokoltsev stated in October 2022 that the MVD needs 52,000 police officers to adequately staff newly occupied territories in Ukraine by 2026, and stated in November 2022 that the current MVD shortage was 90,000 personnel.[35] Russian insider sources speculated that MVD employees are leaving due to corruption, poor payment, and performing as gendarmerie (military forces acting as civilian law enforcement).

The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are likely attempting to deflect blame for Ukrainian shelling in Russian border areas onto mid-level officers. A Moscow court will consider a criminal case against two Russian officers accused of failing to prevent a surprise attack on the Russian Federation, which violates Article 340 of the Russian Criminal Code.[37] Russian authorities have accused the officers of failing to prevent Ukrainian forces from shelling their units and military equipment in Belgorod Oblast in April 2022.[38] This will be the first time that a Russian court will consider such a case since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reached the outskirts of Robotyne amid continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses.
Russia’s necessary practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front.
The further degradation of defending Russian forces creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.
Russian forces appear to be intensifying offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, likely to draw Ukrainian forces away from more operationally significant areas of the front.
Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes in Ukraine on August 11 and targeted a Ukrainian airfield for the second time in the last week.
Russian sources claimed that the Wagner Group appears to be maintaining a presence at its facilities in Belarus, though the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russian remains unclear.
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) is struggling with significant personnel shortages, especially in occupied territories in Ukraine, amid a broader power shift between other Russian internal security organs.
The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are likely attempting to deflect blame for Ukrainian shelling in Russian border areas onto mid-level officers.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast area on August 11 and advanced in some areas.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11 and advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) has begun producing “Geran-2” drones, a modified version of the Iranian-produced Shahed-131/136 drone that will likely enable Russia‘s ability to maintain or potentially increase the frequency of Russia’s drone strikes on Ukraine.
Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to make the upcoming regional elections in the Russian occupied territories appear to be fair and competitive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-11-2023

CSIS
Center for Strategic and International Studies


Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance
Figure 7: Multilayered Defenses North of Mykhailivka, Ukraine
Photo: Copyright © 2023 by Planet


Table of Contents
Introduction
The Offense-Defense Balance
How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?
What Obstacles Could a Ukrainian Offensive Face?
Lessons for Ukraine: Shifting the Advantage to the Offense
Next Steps:
Chapter Three: What Obstacles Could a Ukrainian Offensive Face?
The Russian defensive system consists of multiple types of anti-vehicle barriers, infantry trenches, and prepared firing positions for artillery and fighting vehicles. These fieldworks are arranged in layers to form defensive positions 1 to 2 kilometers deep. Russian doctrine suggests that these systems are intended to be held by motorized rifle battalions, which are assigned to defend areas 3 to 5 kilometers wide and 2 to 2.5 kilometers deep, and motorized rifle companies, which are assigned to defend areas up to 1.5 kilometers wide and 1 kilometer deep.[17]

A defensive system outside of the occupied town of Mykhailivka is representative. It consists of four layers of defenses. First, about 2 kilometers from the town itself, Russia has constructed a trench to disrupt the movement of Ukrainian vehicles toward the front line. Approximately 500 meters behind that ditch is a barrier of “dragon’s teeth.” These concrete barriers are densely packed into three rows and serve as a second barrier to any Ukrainian vehicles that cross the ditch to the north.

Roughly 250 meters behind the dragon’s teeth is an infantry trench system. Soldiers in this trench would be able to engage vehicles attempting to approach or bypass the barriers with recoilless rifles, rocket propelled grenades, or anti-tank guided missiles; fire on accompanying infantry and engineers with small arms; and use indirect fire to target Ukrainians north of the ditch. Russian doctrine dictates that tactical commanders would have created integrated fire plans for their areas of responsibility.[18] These plans would in theory increase the defensive advantage by maximizing the defenders’ familiarity with the terrain, creating zones in which the defenders will concentrate fire, and allowing for planned maneuvers during combat including both withdrawals and counterattacks.

Behind the trench is a second set of counter-mobility barriers: an anti-vehicle ditch and another set of dragon’s teeth. These are supported by a smaller set of trenches and vehicle emplacements located on the two roads leading into the town from the north. These smaller fieldworks can provide command positions from which the wider defensive effort would be led. These positions can also be used for direct and indirect fire on Ukrainian forces north of the first anti-vehicle ditch, as well as covering fire for any effort to withdraw into the town or further south.

These defenses are part of a longer defensive line that stretches from the town of Yasna to the Molochna River, covering a defensive front of approximately 30 kilometers. The northernmost line of dragon’s teeth stretches for more than 6 kilometers to the east, where it meets another set of multilayered defenses near the town of Trudovyk. The southernmost line wraps around the town of Mykhailivka and measures approximately 45 kilometers.

Similar layered defenses are visible across the span of the front line. Another example is visible near the town of Verbove. These fortifications are less extensive, although they have been the location of more recent construction. East of the road leading into the town, the defenses consist of three layers, as illustrated in Figure 10. An anti-vehicle ditch sits north of a set of dragon’s teeth, which is itself north of a trench system with two layers. West of the road, the ditch has been extended since the initial image was taken, but satellite imagery available at the time of writing is not sufficiently clear to determine whether the line of dragon’s teeth has been extended.

Farther west, Russian fieldworks serve as a reminder that these defenses are not intended to be static, but rather that they are part of a larger system incorporating mobile and positional defense. Figure 11 shows a trench leading to an opening in the dragon’s teeth barrier. This construction is relatively unusual. Trenches are usually placed parallel to counter-mobility barriers in order to maximize firepower onto forces trying to cross or breach those barriers, something these trenches would not allow the soldiers manning them to do. What they could do, however, is provide cover to forces withdrawing through the gap in the dragon’s teeth just north of the trench or provide interlocking fire onto an attempt to advance down the road less than 800 meters to the east. These trenches are therefore likely part of a tactical commander’s prepared system of fire and maneuver.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-offensive-operations-shifting-offense-defense-balance

8/12, 10:43 PM (Source: TeleTrader)
Zelensky thanks Germany, Netherlands for aid
EPA-EFE/SERGEY DOLZHENKO

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked on Saturday the German government following the delivery of two more Patriot launchers, which were sent on Wednesday. He also thanked the Netherlands for the mobile medical support complexes it provided for the Ukrainian border guards. "The Netherlands is among the leaders in defense and political cooperation with Ukraine," he said. Zelensky added that Azerbaijan is ready to provide a new package of humanitarian support, including demining equipment. He insisted that Ukraine should establish a domestic production...

Zelensky added that Azerbaijan is ready to provide a new package of humanitarian support, including demining equipment. He insisted that Ukraine should establish a domestic production base for demining equipment, and that "this task should be completed not in decades, but in years."

Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DJ

Update from the Institute for the Study of War


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 13, 2023
Aug 13, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2023

Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, and Mason Clark

August 13, 2023, 3:20pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00pm ET on August 13. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions and achieved partial success near Robotyne (western Zaporizhia Oblast, 13km south of Orikhiv).[1] Several Russian sources claimed on August 12 that Russian forces withdrew from Urozhaine (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast area), although many Russian sources refuted those claims on August 13 and claimed instead that Russian forces still occupy the southern part of Urozhaine, that fighting is ongoing, and that areas of Urozhaine are contested.[2] ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from Urozhaine and Russian forces likely currently maintain positions in at least the southern part of the settlement.

The Russian information space is seizing on Ukrainian gains in Urozhaine (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) to highlight poor Russian morale and command challenges in the area. A Russian milblogger complained on August 12 that the Russian 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) failed to dedicate tank units to support its infantry in Urozhaine and prematurely withdrew from Urozhaine on August 10, claiming they lacked reinforcements when in reality the unit’s personnel were drunk in the rear areas.[3] The milblogger complained that the entire 36th Combined Arms Army (CAA) is unwilling to defend the settlement while the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Kaskad” Operational Tactical Combat Formation and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) defend Urozhaine.[4] These complaints generated a multitude of responses in the Russian information space, including attempts to deescalate tensions between the implicated Russian formations, doubling down on complaints against the 37th Brigade and 36th CAA, and accusing the initial milblogger who reported a Russian withdrawal from Urozhaine of attempting to inflate the reputation of other defending units at the expense of the 36th CAA’s reputation.[5] One milblogger blamed the current situation on the front on the Russian military command’s removal of Major General Ivan Popov as commander of the 58th CAA in early July 2023.[6] The milbloggers notably targeted their complaints at the personnel of these units rather than the unit or theater commanders, suggesting that Popov’s removal and other rumored command purges may have removed mid-level Russian military commanders as a readily available scapegoat for Russian military failures.[7] Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the “Vostok” battalion defending near Urozhaine, referenced Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky as saying that Russia cannot win in defense, and Khodakovsky complained that Russia expended its resources too early in the war and now needs to pause to accumulate resources for a new operation, indicating recognition that the Russian elastic defense in this area has its limitations.[8] Teplinsky is reportedly responsible for planning the Russian defense of the Velyka Novosilka area.


A Russian warship forcibly stopped and searched a civilian cargo ship en route to the Izmail port in Odesa Oblast, likely as part of a Kremlin effort to curtail maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports without committing naval assets to fully enforce a blockade. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that the Russian Vasily Bykov patrol ship forcibly stopped and searched a dry cargo ship sailing under the flag of Palau after it did not respond to the Vasily Bykov’s demand for inspection.[10] The Russian MoD stated that the Russian forces conducted small arms warning fire near the civilian ship before a Ka-29 helicopter landed on the vessel with a group of Russian personnel.[11] The Russian MoD claimed that the Russian personnel conducted an inspection and then allowed the civilian vessel to continue along its route to the Izmail port.

The Russian MoD announced on July 19 that it would consider all ships en route to Ukrainian ports as potential military cargo carriers and the flag countries of such vessels as “involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.”[13] Russian forces did not stop three civilian ships which openly advertised their destination as Ukraine over their ships‘ automatic identification system (AIS) on July 30.[14] The reports of the three civilian ships sailing to Ukraine unhindered suggested that Russian forces may be unable or unwilling to forcibly stop and search neutral vessels, and Russian forces likely conducted their first forced inspection to reimpose the threat of escalation against civilian vessels en route to Ukraine.[15] Russian forces also likely conducted the forced stop and inspection to undermine confidence in temporary trading corridors through the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports, which Ukrainian officials announced on August 10.[16] The Russian naval posturing in the Black Sea is likely intentionally ambiguous and seeks to create a chilling effect on civilian maritime traffic to Ukraine without requiring Russian forces to commit Black Sea Fleet assets to the enforcement of a naval blockade.[17] The Russian military is likely less willing to commit the Black Sea Fleet to such a blockade than it was in July following notable Ukrainian strikes on Russian naval targets in the Black Sea and the Novorossiysk naval base in Krasnodar Krai in early August.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from Urozhaine and Russian forces likely currently maintain positions in at least the southern part of the settlement.
The Russian information space is seizing on Ukrainian gains in Urozhaine (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) to highlight poor Russian morale and command challenges in the area.
A Russian warship forcibly stopped and searched a civilian cargo ship en route to the Izmail port in Odesa Oblast, likely as part of a Kremlin effort to curtail maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports without committing naval assets to fully enforce a blockade.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and attempted to regain lost positions near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and reportedly advanced in some areas.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and reportedly advanced in several areas.
The Wagner Group is likely downsizing and reconfiguring to adapt to financial pressure following the June 24 Wagner rebellion.
Ukrainian partisans claimed to have attacked a Russian military base in occupied Mariupol on August 13.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13-2023

CSIS
Center for Strategic and International Studies


Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance
Figure 7: Multilayered Defenses North of Mykhailivka, Ukraine
Photo: Copyright © 2023 by Planet


Table of Contents
Introduction
The Offense-Defense Balance
How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?
What Obstacles Could a Ukrainian Offensive Face?
Lessons for Ukraine: Shifting the Advantage to the Offense
Next Steps:
Chapter Four- Shifting the Advantage to the Offense
While Russia’s defensive fortifications are impressive in their size and scale—at least in some respects—they are likely insufficient to prevent Ukrainian forces from breaking through Russian lines and retaking territory illegally seized by Russia. In short, Russian defensive actions do not guarantee that the defense has the advantage. Several steps could shift the advantage to the offense.

Weakness of Defensive Forces

Fortifications are only as good as the forces defending them. In the 1930s, France constructed the Maginot Line, which included concrete fortifications, machine guns, anti-tank emplacements, and even underground railways. The Maginot Line had state-of-the-art living conditions for specialist units of infantry, artillery, and engineers—even including air conditioning. But the French military was relatively weak. It had a debilitated air force and a large army that was unprepared for offensive operations, though it had a reasonably strong navy.[19] Germany exploited these French weaknesses during its invasion of France in 1940.

The Russian military—especially the army—has been battered over the past year. Following its February 2022 invasion, Russia failed to achieve many of its objectives in Ukraine because of poor combined arms operations; ineffective joint operations, such as close air support to Russian ground forces; problematic intelligence, including faulty Federal Security Service planning and analysis; significant logistical problems; and low morale. These factors were vital for Ukraine’s lightning offensive in Kharkiv Oblast in 2022, where Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise, broke through Russian lines, and captured a key logistical hub to trigger a collapse among Russian ground forces and the liberation of more than 12,000 square kilometers of territory.[20]

The deployment of Wagner Group private military contractors to the front lines in eastern Ukraine in 2023 has further highlighted the poor performance of Russian ground forces, as well as the political risks of a full-scale Russian mobilization. Consequently, a partially bruised and demoralized Russian army sits behind the extensive fortifications, which may present opportunities for Ukraine.

Furthermore, the Russian military likely does not have enough high-quality forces to defend all parts of the line. The 70 combat regiments and brigades Russia has in Ukraine will likely not be sufficient to form a large mobile reserve, even if Russia commands enough soldiers to adequately staff its fortifications.[21] The lack of a strong mobile reserve means that Russia will be hard-pressed to surge forces to fill gaps in its lines, station forces in second-echelon defensive positions, and conduct counterattacks according to its defensive doctrine.[22]

Expansive Front Line

Ukraine can use the extensive front line to its advantage. Territory can be important, particularly the size of a front and the territory an attacker is attempting to seize. While the Maginot Line in France covered approximately 450 kilometers, it did not cover every inch of French territory or key parts of France’s border with Belgium and Luxembourg. Germany invaded the Netherlands and Belgium in May 1940. Later that month, German forces penetrated the Maginot Line at a weak part along the Belgian frontier, where France’s defenses had few forces that were of relatively low quality. On May 15, 1940, Heinz Guderian’s XIX Panzer Corps broke through the French line and headed west into open country, sealing France’s fate.[23]

One historical lesson for Ukraine and its Western supporters is to continue assessing weak spots in the Russian lines where there are opportunities for penetration, where Russian defenses are poorly constructed or of insufficient depth, and where Russian forces are understaffed or of particularly poor quality.[24] Ukrainian forces know this terrain well, since it is land many of their soldiers grew up on.


The formidable appearance of Russia’s defensive fortifications may also obscure as much as it reveals. Russia has used contractors to dig trenches, many of whom likely lack significant military engineering experience.[25] There have also been reports of Russian mistreatment of these contractors.[26] Lack of expertise or low morale could lead to the fortifications being less effective than they appear in satellite imagery.

Variation in the quality of Russia’s dragon’s teeth is notable, despite the media attention they have generated as a symbol of Russia’s defenses in Ukraine. These obstacles are most effective when connected to one another by concrete linkages underground and partially buried. Some images appear to show dragon’s teeth without underground connections. Other images appear to show dragon’s teeth sitting on top of the earth rather than partially under it. One image posted on several Russian websites also appears to show that some of the dragon’s teeth used by Russia are not entirely made of concrete and are already suffering environmental damage in Ukraine.[27] It is impossible to draw sweeping conclusions about the overall quality of Russia’s defenses from these images, but they are enough to suggest that there are variations in the quality of defenses across the line that can be exploited by Ukraine with good intelligence.

The Ukrainian front covers roughly 1,000 kilometers—more than double the size of the Maginot Line—as it zigzags from the grassy slopes of the northeast, hugs the Dnipro River, and extends to the Black Sea.[28] This large front is likely a major vulnerability for the Russians. As one assessment of the offense-defense balance concludes, “If the attacker is faced with a defender who is protecting a narrow front, the probability that the blitzkrieg will succeed is much less than if the attacker can strike at a defender deployed across a broad front.”[29] This challenge is often called the force-to-space ratio.[30] Russia likely lacks the force-to-space ratio to defend such an expansive territory.

The May 2023 clashes between Russian security forces and fighters in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, near the Ukrainian border, likely worsened Russia’s deployment problems by forcing the Russian military to move troops to its internationally recognized border with Ukraine.[31] These types of attacks could increase Russia’s force-to-space ratio problems by thinning out its defensive positions in some areas.

Technology and Military Innovation

Technology can impact the offense-defense balance. The offense generally requires mobility.[32] The attacker must first achieve a breakthrough by defeating or destroying a section of the defender’s front, and then it must exploit this breakthrough to advance into the defender’s rear.[33] As noted earlier in this analysis, advances in military mobility have sometimes shifted the balance in favor of the offense.[34]

The Ukrainian military has thus far been innovative in its development and use of technology.[35] Military innovation involves a change in the conduct of warfare intended to improve the ability of a military to generate combat power. A change in the conduct of warfare does not necessarily require a change in military doctrine, but it does involve change at the operational level of war.[36]

The challenge for Ukraine will be to innovatively utilize technology and adapt its conduct of warfare in ways that maximize mobility to exploit Russian vulnerabilities. For example, Ukrainian forces could use a combination of advanced technology and UASs or loitering munitions—including those supplied by the West—to conduct UAS “swarms” against Russian defensive positions. As interviews with Ukrainian military officials indicate, Ukraine is investing significant time and resources into innovations such as swarming tactics designed to maximize target saturation and overwhelm Russian defenses.[39] UASs could also be employed to probe for gaps in Russian lines, locate Russian reserves or artillery systems, or provide artillery-like effects in support of high-mobility units exploiting a breakthrough.

An important technological obstacle to Ukraine’s efforts is Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities. Russia has effectively used electronic warfare to combat Ukrainian UASs.[40] The ability of the Ukrainian military to find and destroy Russian electronic warfare systems, which are now organic to units at multiple levels, will be a key enabler of offensive success.

Strategy, Force Employment, Will to Fight, and Other Intangibles

Attackers can make up for a tough defense with clever strategies, effective force employment, leadership, nationalism, will to fight, combat motivation, morale, and other factors. Force employment, for example, includes how militaries use force on the battlefield—a combination of cover, concealment, dispersion, suppression, small-unit independent maneuver, and combined arms operations.[41] Some also call this “military skill,” which describes a country’s ability to effectively employ military technology, including designing military strategy and assessing adversaries’ forces and strategy.[42]

Will to fight and nationalism can influence the offense-defense balance, and neither have been in short supply among Ukrainians. To the extent that soldiers are motivated by nationalism, they frequently become willing to fight harder for territory that they understand to be part of their national homeland.[43] The Ukrainian military and civilians have shown an extraordinary will to fight since the start of the war.

The reverse is also true: soldiers who are not imbued with a nationalist consciousness may be less willing to fight for territory. Confederate soldiers deserted the Army of Northern Virginia at the Potomac in 1862 because “they felt that they were fighting to defend Virginia’s soil, not to invade the North.”[44] In addition, Hitler was unwilling to risk imposing full war mobilization on Germany until the failure of Operation Barbarossa opened the possibility that Germany’s own homeland security might be threatened.[45]

Despite President Vladimir Putin’s insistence that Ukraine is part of the Russian empire, it is unclear how much this argument has convinced Russian soldiers and contractors. Recent research on absent without leave (AWOL) cases in Russian military courts suggests that an increasing number of Russian military personnel are not convinced. AWOL cases in the first four months of 2023 already surpassed the total number of cases in 2022.[46] It is impossible to say definitively that the rise indicates that Russians in Ukraine have a low will to fight, but it is hardly an indicator of a strongly motivated military.

A clever strategy is also important. Between 1919 and 1945, an evolving offensive doctrine (blitzkrieg) and motorized armor shifted the advantage to the offense and overrode machine guns, trenches, railroads, and barbed wire.[47] As B.H. Liddell Hart explained in analyzing German General Heinz Guderian’s blitzkrieg into France in May 1940:

"It is clear that Guderian and his tankmen pulled the German Army along after them, and thereby produced the most sweeping victory in modern history.
The issue turned on the time factor at stage after stage. French countermovements were repeatedly thrown out of gear because their timing was too slow to catch up with changing situations, and that was due to the fact that the German van kept on moving faster than the German high command had contemplated."

In the 1967 Six Day War, Israel Defense Forces heavily relied on armor and air forces to destroy significant components of the Egyptian and Syrian air forces. Within three days, the Israelis captured the Gaza Strip and all of the Sinai Peninsula up to the east bank of the Suez Canal. Israeli forces then drove Jordanian troops out of East Jerusalem and most of the West Bank and seized the Golan Heights from Syria. Israel developed an effective blitzkrieg strategy that relied on armor to inflict a decisive defeat against its Arab adversaries. As Moshe Dayan explained to Israel’s Ministerial Defense Committee before the war, “If we opened the attack and effected an armored breakthrough into Sinai, the enemy would be forced to fight according to the moves we made.”[49

For Ukraine today, maneuver warfare demands a flexible command structure with soldiers capable of exercising initiative in combat situations. It is not based on a rigid plan that commanders need to follow closely.[50] Ukrainian soldiers at the platoon, company, and battalion levels have already shown a proclivity to taking the initiative. In World War II, the German military developed a doctrine of Auftragstaktik, which dictated that commanders be given a battlefield objective rather than lengthy orders that micromanaged how they do it.[51] This doctrine helped enable implementation of blitzkrieg, which requires lower-level commanders to act quickly and decisively in order to exploit breakthroughs and maintain the momentum required to avoid enemy counterattack.

A clever Ukrainian strategy that penetrates Russian lines could have significant follow-on effects. For example, a major breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia could severely threaten the viability of Russia’s land bridge linking Russia’s Rostov region with Crimea. Even a breakthrough in the less-densely defended Luhansk Oblast could provide significant benefits by proving that Western support for Ukraine continues to bear fruit, removing Russian units from the battlefield, and sowing further dissent within Russia itself.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-offensive-operations-shifting-offense-defense-balance

Update from the Institute for the Study of War


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 15, 2023
Aug 15, 2023 - Press ISW









Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2023

Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, and Mason Clark

August 15, 2023, 5:45pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on August 15. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luhansk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut, Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast), and Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[1] Coordinates published by a Russian milblogger on August 15 indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Dibrova (7km southwest of Kreminna).[2] Geolocated footage posted on August 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced into Robotyne, and further Russian and Ukrainian reporting published on August 15 suggests that Ukrainian forces have committed additional counteroffensive brigades to the western Zaporizhia oblast area.[3] Ukrainian Colonel Petro Chernyk stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is advancing slowly in southern Ukraine because Ukrainian forces must overcome a three-echeloned Russian defensive line.[4] Chernyk stated that the Russian line of defense includes a first line of minefields stretching several kilometers wide; a second line with artillery, equipment, and personnel concentrations; and a third line of rear positions meant to preserve resources.[5] Chernyk noted that Ukrainian counterbattery measures are especially important in order to prevent Russian artillery from targeting Ukrainian mine-clearing equipment.[6] Chernyk’s statements are in line with ISW’s previous assessments that Russia’s doctrinally sound elastic defense is slowing Ukrainian forces’ advances in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile strike against targets mainly in Ukrainian rear areas on the night of August 14-15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 28 missiles, including four Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, 20 Kh-101/555 air-based cruise missiles, and four Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, at targets throughout Ukraine on the night of August 14-15 and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 16 Kh-101/555 and Kalibr missiles.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces launched eight S-300/400 missiles in ground attack mode at targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[9] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the missile strikes targeted key enterprises in Ukraine’s defense-industrial base.[10] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian missiles targeted various rear areas of Ukraine, including industrial areas in Dnipropetrovsk, Volyn, Lviv, Cherkassy and Donetsk oblasts.[11] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces struck the Starokostyantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, although Ukrainian sources did not confirm this strike.[12] Russian sources may be inflating claims of the strike on Khmelnytskyi Oblast in order to frame Russia as effectively targeting Ukrainian assets associated with Ukraine’s counteroffensive capabilities.

The Kremlin is using the Army-2023 forum in Moscow (August 14-20) to foster bilateral military and political relations with other states and posture itself as a reliable and technologically advanced partner. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that over 77,000 representatives from over 1,500 Russian defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises are presenting over 28,500 defensive and technical developments at the forum, and that representatives from over 82 countries are in attendance.[14] The MoD claimed that Russia conducted 14 bilateral meetings on the first day of the forum.[15] Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin met with officials from Myanmar, Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos, Bangladesh, and Djibouti to discuss bilateral defense relations.[16] The Russian MoD also posted photographs of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu viewing Iranian, Chinese, and Indian exhibitions.[17] Chinese Defense Minister Colonel General Li Shangfu spoke at the forum to celebrate Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation and to signal Chinese readiness for further cooperation.[18] The Russian MoD featured multiple Iranian drones at the forum.[19] The Russian MoD also postured itself as a viable long-term defense partner and weapons producer by hosting conversations on long term Russian military training, the intended integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into Russian weapons and control systems, the utilization of three-dimensional printing for Russian naval repairs, and the modernization of domestic rescue and underwater equipment.[

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Shoigu made largely boilerplate comments framing the Russian government as effectively meeting Russian force generation efforts, portraying Western and Ukrainian resources as limited, and promoting international cooperation against the West.Shoigu claimed on August 15 at the Moscow International Security Conference that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) has produced various weapons, tanks, armored vehicles, and drones in an amount of time and alleged that Russian and Soviet equipment capabilities surpass Western equipment capabilities.[21] Shoigu claimed that Western sanctions on Russia have helped to increase domestic military equipment production through import substitution at DIB enterprises, part of a longstanding (and inaccurate) Kremlin narrative since 2014 claiming that international sanctions strengthen Russia.[22] Shoigu claimed that in contrast, Ukrainian resources and Western military arsenals are almost completely depleted.[23] ISW continues to assess that Russia has failed to mobilize its DIB to adequately support the war effort, however.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated unsubstantiated claims on August 15 at the Moscow International Security Conference that the West is responsible for "igniting the conflict” in Ukraine.[25] Shoigu and Putin reiterated rhetoric accusing the West of creating instability in Africa, Latin America, and Asia and advocated for deepening Russian defense relations with those countries and the creation of a “multipolar world order.”[26] Shoigu also alleged that the West escalated international conflicts including "the situation around Taiwan.”[27] Shoigu’s reference to Taiwan likely indicates Russia’s continued efforts to create a “no limits” partnership between Beijing and Moscow despite China’s reservations.

Wagner Group-affiliated sources are undermining private military companies (PMCs) affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Several Russian and Belarusian insider sources claimed on August 15 that rumors currently circulating about the alleged transfer of Wagner commanders to the Russian MoD’s “Redut” PMC are false.”[28] The insider sources called the rumors a ”dream” of the Russian MoD and denied that any Wagner commanders are transferring to ”Redut” and are instead continuing to fulfill tasks as part of Wagner leadership.[29] Wagner affiliated sources and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin previously harshly criticized ”Redut” and its constituent units over the backdrop of Wagner’s tensions with the Russian MoD during the Battle of Bakhmut.[30] The acerbic responses of many Wagner-affiliated channels to the allegation that some Wagner commanders may be transferring to ”Redut” suggests that Wagner sources have a continued interest in undermining various MoD-associated organs. As ISW reported on August 14, the Russian MoD appears to be struggling to consolidate control of other PMCs associated with Russian businessmen and enterprises, and likely hopes to maintain a grasp on “Redut” despite rhetorical attacks by Wagner affiliated channels.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to comment on Wagner issues on the African continent to remain active in the information space, but is notably refraining from commenting on the war in Ukraine A Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel posted an audio recording of Prigozhin on August 15 wherein Prigozhin commented on the alleged arrests of protesters wearing Wagner shirts in Ghana and claimed that the incident proves that Wagner has continued support around the world and in Africa.[32] Wagner channels previously posted an audio clip of Prigozhin discussing the coup in Niger and Wagner's presence in Africa on August 8.[33] Prigozhin appears to be using his limited public addresses to focus on platforming Wagner’s interests in Africa as opposed to commenting on the situation in Ukraine or reports of Wagner activity in Russia and Belarus, possibly indicating he is following imposed limitations on his involvement - even rhetorically - with the war in Ukraine.

Russian news outlet Kommersant reported that Russian authorities are developing a mechanism to fully control and shut off civilian mobile telecommunications networks in the event of a declared emergency, possibly related to pro-Ukrainian cross border raids. Kommersant reported on August 15 that Russian authorities are considering amendments to the Russian development strategy for the communications industry that would create a mechanism for law enforcement agencies and civilian communication operators to share frequencies and allow law enforcement agencies to take complete control over jointly used frequencies in the event of a declared emergency.[34] Kommersant reported that experts say it is possible that sharing frequencies could also improve the quality of mobile communications ”in peacetime” because operators will have access to previously restricted frequencies currently only used by Russian authorities.[35] Russian authorities may hope to institute such mechanisms to exert greater control of communications networks and the wider information space in the wake of recent events such as limited pro-Ukrainian cross-border incursions, wherein civilian communications greatly contributed to panic spreading and undermining the official Russian line of the incidents.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luhansk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile strike against targets mainly in Ukrainian rear areas on the night of August 14-15.
The Kremlin is using the Army-2023 forum in Moscow (August 14-20) to foster bilateral military and political relations with other states and posture itself as a reliable and technologically advanced partner.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Shoigu made largely boilerplate comments framing the Russian government as effectively meeting Russian force generation efforts, portraying Western and Ukrainian resources as limited, and promoting international cooperation against the West.
Wagner Group affiliated sources are undermining private military companies (PMCs) affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to comment on Wagner issues on the African continent to remain active in the information space but is notably refraining from commenting on the war in Ukraine.
Russian news outlet Kommersant reported that Russian authorities are developing a mechanism to fully control and shut off civilian mobile telecommunications networks in the event of a declared emergency, possibly related to pro-Ukrainian cross border raids.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and reportedly advanced near Svatove and Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 15 and reportedly advanced in Luhansk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian “Vostok” Battalion, which is notably fighting near Urozhaine claimed on August 15 that Russian forces have entirely lost Urozhaine and blamed a lack of infantry and equipment for the loss of the settlement, but ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from the town.
The Russian federal subject “Bashkortostan Regiment” volunteer formation has reportedly deployed to Ukraine.
Russian authorities continue to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories into the Russian cultural and educational sphere.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-15-2023

CSIS
Center for Strategic and International Studies


Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance
Figure 7: Multilayered Defenses North of Mykhailivka, Ukraine
Photo: Copyright © 2023 by Planet


Table of Contents
Introduction
The Offense-Defense Balance
How Are Russia’s Defenses Organized?
What Obstacles Could a Ukrainian Offensive Face?
Lessons for Ukraine: Shifting the Advantage to the Offense
Next Steps
Chapter Five-Next Steps
The next phase of the war will hinge, in part, on the ability of Ukrainian forces to retake territory by moving from attrition to maneuver warfare and to shift the offense-defense balance in favor of the offense. As Napoleon wrote, “The strength of an army, like power in mechanics, is estimated by multiplying the mass by the velocity.”[52] A Ukrainian maneuver strategy places a premium on the second factor—velocity. Russian forces have attempted to shift the advantage to the defense and retain the territory they have conquered in Ukraine by constructing a formidable system of fortifications. But Russia faces several challenges in holding this territory, including weak ground forces that have not performed well on the battlefield, the need to defend a massive amount of territory, and variable construction of the fortifications.

This war is far from over. Western aid—including weapons systems, technology, training, intelligence, and financial support—will be critical over the long run to help Ukraine retake its territory and prevent Russia from invading again in the foreseeable future. The future trajectory of the war will also depend on whether Ukraine can exploit Russian vulnerabilities and effectively integrate technology, a clever strategy, force employment, nationalism, and other factors to turn the tide.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-offensive-operations-shifting-offense-defense-balance

Update from the Institute for the Study of War


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 17, 2023
Aug 17, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2023

Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 17, 2023, 7:30pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:00pm ET on August 17. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion. Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] Prigozhin’s April 14 essay suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine to set conditions for a future victory without negotiations.[4] Russian sources have periodically claimed that a Kremlin faction is interested in freezing the war along the current frontlines for similar reasons as well as over concerns about domestic political stability and the economic fallout from the war.[5] Discussion of this narrative has waned with Prigozhin’s relative silence following Wagner’s June 24 rebellion and the arrest of ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin, who routinely called on the Kremlin to resist the faction that aims to freeze the war.[6] Khodakovsky may be reintroducing the narrative into the Russian information space on behalf of the faction allegedly interested in freezing the war, although Khodakovsky likely has limited influence on the Russian leadership itself. ISW continues to assess that a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine and protraction of the war will only benefit Russia by allowing Russian forces to reconstitute and letting Russia wear down Western support for Ukraine.


Khodakovsky commands forces defending in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and his comments about freezing the war follow the Ukrainian liberation of Urozhaine on August 16, suggesting that recent Ukrainian advances may be significantly weakening confidence in the Russian defense along the wider front in southern Ukraine. Khodakovsky has previously highlighted concerns about the Russian defense in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, specifically relating to poor Russian counterbattery capabilities, heavy Russian losses, exhausted Russian forces, and a lack of reserves.[8] Khodakovsky previously called for an operational pause on August 13 so that Russian forces could accumulate resources for a new operation.[9] Khodakovsky’s escalation from calling for an operational pause to suggesting that Russia freeze the conflict is likely associated with his firsthand experience of recent tactically significant Ukrainian advances and the degradation of defending Russian forces in Urozhaine.

Recent Ukrainian advances near small settlements in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast are likely tactically significant because of the structure of Russian defensive lines. Ukrainian Colonel Petro Chernyk stated on August 15 that the three-echeloned Russian defensive line in southern Ukraine is comprised of a first line of minefields stretching several kilometers deep; a second line with artillery, equipment, and personnel concentrations; and a third line of rear positions meant to preserve resources.[10] Recent Ukrainian advances north and northeast of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia may allow Ukrainian forces to begin operating in the areas past the densest minefields.[11] If the areas around the second Russian line of defense are less heavily mined, then they would likely be more conducive to more rapid Ukrainian gains. ISW has no ability to assess the density or depth of Russian minefields, however.

Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, resources, and personnel to hold settlements such as Robotyne and Urozhaine, and recent Ukrainian advances in these areas are therefore likely reflective of a wider degradation of defending Russian forces. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces lack significant operational reserves, and the intense Russian effort to hold these settlements instead of withdrawing their forces means that Ukrainian forces have likely had to thoroughly degrade Russian units before advancing.[12] ISW recently observed Russian forces conduct lateral redeployments of elements of the 7th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division from Kherson Oblast and possibly from the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area to the Robotyne area, further suggesting that recent Ukrainian advances have significantly degraded the Russian forces that have been defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast without rotation since the start of the counteroffensive.[13] The lack of Russian operational reserves means that Russian forces will have to reinforce certain areas of the front at the expense of others, likely weakening Russian defensive lines in aggregate and offering Ukrainian forces opportunities for exploitation.[14] Khodakovsky’s recent complaint that the Russian command failed to send reinforcements to secure exhausted Russian forces defending Urozhaine may indicate that the Russian command is already making difficult choices about what sectors to prioritize as Ukrainian forces advance.[15] Russian forces increasingly appear likely to have to withdraw to secondary prepared defensive positions without significant support in the case of a Ukrainian breakthrough, and the further degradation of Russian forces creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant.[16] Khodakovsky’s apparent waning confidence in the Russian defense in southern Ukraine may indicate that he believes that recent advances have made a Ukrainian breakthrough more likely.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 17 and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area), and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[17] Geolocated footage published on August 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains in southern Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[18] Additional geolocated footage published on August 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced southwest of Novopokrovka (16km southeast of Orikhiv).[19] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters on August 17.[20] Ukrainian military sources and geolocated footage posted on August 17 indicate that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[21] Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk stated that Ukrainian air defense units downed another Russian Ka-52 helicopter in the Bakhmut direction, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of a downed Russian Ka-52 helicopter in this direction.[22] The destruction of two Russian Ka-52 helicopters in the same day could indicate that protracted Russian aviation operations without rest may be degrading Russia’s limited cadre of pilots, although it would be premature to draw firm conclusions from two instances.

Russian efforts to ramp up the domestic production of Iranian Shahed-136/-131 drones indicates that Russia aims to develop the long-term capability to conduct large strike series in Ukraine. The Washington Post reported that a drone production facility in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone aims to build 6,000 Iranian Shahed drones domestically by 2025.[23] The Washington Post cited leaked documents from a disillusioned Alabuga facility worker that state that Russia aims to develop a drone manufacturing capability that exceeds Iran’s production capacity and aims to improve on existing capabilities of the Iranian Shahed-131 and -136 drones. The report noted that Russia is focused on producing and improving the Shahed-136 variant, which has a payload 10 times larger than the Shahed-131. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuri Ihnat stated on August 17 that Russian forces are producing many missiles, helicopters, and aircraft but are unable to sustain this production.[24] Ihnat recently assessed that Russian forces will rely on strike drones because they are cheaper and easier to manufacture than precision missiles.[25] Ihnat stated that Russian forces are largely launching precision missiles that Russia recently produced, which indicates that Russian forces are prioritizing targeting Ukraine with precision missiles over restoring their stockpiles.[26] Russian forces currently use Shahed drones in Ukraine primarily as decoys so that high precision missiles have better chances of hitting their targets. The Russian command may believe that a large number of strike drones will allow Russian forces to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, although Shahed drones remain Russia’s high precision weapon system most vulnerable to Ukrainian air defenses.[27] Shahed drones do not carry sufficient payloads to significantly damage most critical military targets, and Russian forces are likely to continue using the drones to target soft and civilian targets in Ukraine.

The Washington Post report indicates that Russia is struggling to produce its own variants of the Shahed drones at the pace and quality it desires. The Washington Post cited experts who assessed from the leaked documents that the Alabuga drone production facility has only manufactured the external components for 300 drones and is about one month behind schedule.[29] The leaked documents indicate that the Alabuga facility has struggled to fill specialist positions and that workers, including the one who leaked the documents, struggle with morale issues and that the plant has had to implement incentives such as increased pay and coercive measures such as seizing passports to retain workers. The documents also indicate that the Alabuga facility is struggling to obtain necessary drone components from foreign sources, as Russia only produces four of the 130 necessary internal components, and recent US blanket sanctions have further hindered Russia’s ability to acquire some electrical components.

Russia is likely dissatisfied with the quality of Shahed-131- and -136 drones it sources from Iran but likely seeks to retain Iran as a long-term strategic defense partner. The Washington Post’s leaked documents indicate that Iran has consistently held an advantage over Russia with the provision of the Shahed drones on Iranian rather than Russian terms.[30] The documents state that Iran leveraged negotiations to provide the smaller Shahed-131 drone to Russia despite Russia’s strong preference for the larger Shahed-136. The Washington Post reported that an estimated 25 percent of Iranian-provided drones arrive damaged, many even inoperable. Russia has continued to posture itself as supporting or partnering with Iran in other strategic initiatives, including promoting Iranian weapons at the ongoing Army-2023 development forum, continuing bilateral defense cooperation discussions, and seeking to expel US forces from Syria, however.

Russian reports about the state of the Chonhar Bridge in occupied Kherson Oblast indicate that Ukrainian strikes disrupted a major Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) to Crimea for 11 days. Crimean occupation Transport Minister Anatoly Tsurkin claimed on August 16 that traffic resumed on the Chonhar road bridge connecting Crimea with occupied Kherson Oblast after a Ukrainian strike on August 6 damaged the bridge and forced authorities to reroute civilian and likely military traffic.[32] The road bridge is part of a critical Russian GLOC, and the resumption of traffic on the bridge 11 days following the strike indicates that the Ukrainian interdiction campaign against Russian deep rear areas in southern Ukraine is able to temporarily disrupt Russian logistics supporting the Russian defense of critical sectors of the front during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[33] The status of rail activity on the Chonhar railway bridge is unknown at this time, as is the status of the damaged road bridge across the Henichesk Strait.

Russian authorities are likely targeting individuals associated with the “Golos” Movement for Defense of Voters’ Rights, including its Co-Chairperson Grigory Melkonyants, to suppress meaningful electoral opposition in preparation for the 2024 presidential election. Russian opposition news outlets reported that Russian authorities searched the premises of 14 associates of Melkonyants in eight oblasts in connection with the case against Melkonyants.[34] Russian authorities also reportedly arrested “Golos” Movement Coordinator Vladimir Yegorov on charges of disobeying the police and searched Yegorov‘s home in connection to the case against Melkonyants.[35] “Golos” Movement Co-Chairperson Stanislav Andreychuk stated that the case against Melkonyants is connected to the upcoming regional elections in Russia and claimed that Russian authorities have made it difficult for ”Golos” to cover Russian elections over the past year.[36] The “Golos” Movement had remained the main independent election observation organization in Russia until recently.

Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers reportedly detained the lawyer of arrested former FSB officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin on August 17. Russian sources claimed that FSB officers detained Girkin’s lawyer, Alexander Molokhov, in Yalta on suspicion of extortion after he was invited to the city by a developer in an arbitration case and offered money.[38] Russian sources claimed that the FSB officers held Molokhov for 10 hours before releasing him but did not initiate a criminal case.


An imprisoned former Russian Federal Protection Service (FSO) general with alleged knowledge of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s private Black Sea residence died suspiciously on August 16. Gennady Lopyrev, a former lieutenant general in the Russian Federal Protection Service (FSO), who was serving a sentence for bribery in a penal colony in Ryazan Oblast, Russia, died on August 16.[40] The chairman of the Public Monitoring Commission of Ryazan Oblast, Viktor Boborykin, did not provide the cause of Lopyrev’s death, but a Russian insider source claimed that Lopyrev was “unexpectedly” diagnosed with leukemia on August 14 after suddenly complaining of shortness of breath despite normal health indicators.[41] The insider source claimed Lopyrev was “the keeper of secrets” related to the construction of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Black Sea residence in Gelendzhik, often referred to as “Putin’s Palace.”


Key Takeaways:

“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion.
Khodakovsky commands forces defending in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and his comments about freezing the war follow the Ukrainian liberation of Urozhaine on August 16, suggesting that recent Ukrainian advances may be significantly weakening confidence in the Russian defense along the wider front in southern Ukraine.
Recent Ukrainian advances near small settlements in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast are likely tactically significant because of the structure of Russian defensive lines.
Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, resources, and personnel to hold settlements such as Robotyne and Urozhaine, and recent Ukrainian advances in these areas are therefore likely reflective of a wider degradation of defending Russian forces.
Russian efforts to ramp up the domestic production of Iranian Shahed-136/-131 drones indicates that Russia aims to develop the long-term capability to conduct large strike series in Ukraine.
Russian reports about the state of the Chonhar Bridge in occupied Kherson Oblast indicate that Ukrainian strikes disrupted a major Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) to Crimea for 11 days.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 17 and advanced in certain areas.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 17 and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023

Update from the Institute for the Study of War


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 19, 2023
Aug 19, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2023

Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 19, 2023, 7pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on August 19. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahed drone strikes overnight. Russian forces struck Taras Shevchenko Theater in Chernihiv City, killing seven people and injuring 117.[1] Chernihiv Oblast Administration Head Vyacheslav Chaus reported that Russian forces “probably” launched a “ballistic missile” at the theater, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces used an Iskander-M ballistic missile during the strike.[2] The theater reportedly hosted a drone exposition called “Lyuti Ptashky” (Angry Birds), which had previously occurred in other Ukrainian cities.[3] The event organizer, Maria Berlinska, stated that organizers only shared the location of the event with individuals who registered and were screened before attending the event.[4] The event reportedly ended shortly after an air raid warning, and organizers advised people to hide in a shelter.[5] Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces are targeting public events to emotionally affect Ukrainians and noted that Russian forces have previously struck public events even without prior public announcements of such events.[6] Many Russian milbloggers originally claimed that Russian forces targeted a Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) building, before most indicated that Russian forces struck the drone exhibition.

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces also carried out 17 Shahed drone strikes overnight on August 19 and that Ukrainian forces shot down 15 drones.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff later reported that Russian forces also carried out five missile strikes.[9] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and Ukrainian regional officials reported that Russian attacks overnight on unspecified targets wounded eight people.[10] The Zhytomyr Oblast Administration reported that a Russian loitering munition targeted unspecified infrastructure in the oblast and that debris from the shot down drone sparked a localized fire.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast and reportedly damaged strategic aircraft on August 19.[12] Geolocated images published on August 19 show smoke rising from the Soltsy airbase.[13] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian drone using small arms and that a fire damaged one aircraft.[14] A Russian insider source claimed that the fire damaged at least two aircraft and that the Soltsy airbase housed an unspecified number of Tu-22M3 (NATO reporting name Backfire-C) long-range supersonic bombers.[15] The source also claimed that Russian forces moved the undamaged aircraft to Olenya air base, Murmask Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 19, and advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[17] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain the initiative in the Bakhmut direction.[18] Geolocated footage published on August 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently made limited advances east of Nevelske (directly west of Donetsk City).[19] Additional geolocated footage published on August 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[20] CBS News reported on August 18 that anonymous US officials stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing in the direction of Tokmak (a major Russian stronghold in western Zaporizhia Oblast) and have cleared a Russian minefield north of Tokmak.[21] US officials are likely referring to recent Ukrainian advances north and east of Robotyne (about 23km northeast of Tokmak). ISW previously assessed that recent Ukrainian advances near small settlements in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia are likely tactically significant because of the structure of Russian defensive lines.[22] These advances may allow Ukrainian forces to begin operating in less heavily mined areas of the Russian line of defense that are likely more conducive to more rapid Ukrainian gains.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chief of the Russian General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and senior officers at the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on August 19.[24] This was reportedly Putin’s first visit to Rostov-on-Don since the Wagner Group took control of the SMD headquarters on June 23-24.[25] Putin rarely visits areas associated with the war in Ukraine; in April he visited Kherson and Luhansk oblasts and in March he visited Mariupol.[26] Putin’s visit to the SMD headquarters is likely a public gesture that he continues to side with Gerasimov and his group of commanders despite these commanders’ failure to stop Wagner’s rebellion or achieve the war aims Putin set for them. Putin’s visit occurred about two months after the rebellion, and he is likely attempting to portray himself as in control of his regime and military.

The Russian MoD is continuing to set conditions to possibly replace Wagner Group forces with MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs). A Wagner-affiliated source that there is an ongoing effort to recruit Wagner personnel to deploy to missions abroad as part of PMCs. The source claimed that unspecified Russian authorities – likely referring to Russian MoD – are forming the new “Rossiyskiy Ekpeditsionniy Korpus” (Russian Expeditionary Corps) PMC at the base of one of the advanced Spetsnaz brigades.[27] The source also claimed that the Russian MoD controls “Redut” PMC (also known as “Zvezda” PMC), which is currently recruiting personnel for missions in Africa instead of in Ukraine.[28] The source suggested that Redut PMC may have been attempting to recruit Wagner fighters to Redut’s operations in Africa, referring to a statement that Wagner commanders issued on August 9 warning fighters about calls from “second-rate” PMCs advertising jobs in Africa.[29] The Russian MoD may be attempting to lure Wagner personnel away from Wagner with new work opportunities at MoD-controlled PMCs as part of a wider effort to break up Wagner.


Key Takeaways:

Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahed drone strikes overnight.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast and reportedly damaged strategic aircraft on August 19.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 19, and advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chief of the Russian General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and senior officers at the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on August 19.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is continuing to set conditions to possibly replace Wagner Group forces with MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs).
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and advanced in certain areas on August 19.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree on August 17 establishing the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School under the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely in an effort to further integrate proxy military formations in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Russian officials continue to deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19-2023

‘Shameful’ Nicolas Sarkozy under fire for defending Putin’s Ukraine invasion
The former French president criticises EU and US support for Kyiv in his latest memoirs

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...re-for-defending-putins-ukraine-invasion

The Netherlands and Denmark said Sunday that they would donate up to 61 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, the first countries to do so. Biden gave his go ahead.

Dramatic video from a Ukrainian combat Go Pro.

[video:youtube]https://youtube.com/shorts/gHoNejua8Wg?feature=share[/video]

Greece offers F-16 training to Ukrainian pilots, says Zelensky

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230821-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-ukraine-says-it-has-recaptured-more-ground-around-bakhmut

Greece will take part in training of Ukrainian air force pilots for F-16 jets, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday. Greece has been a strong supporter of Ukraine since Russia's invasion, providing humanitarian aid and weapons including infantry fighting vehicles and Kalashnikov assault rifles. Zelensky's visit to Greece came after Kyiv announced advancements near the war-battered eastern town of Bakhmut over the weekend.

Update from the Institute for the Study of War

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 21, 2023
Aug 21, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2023

Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 21, 2023, 8:30pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:00pm ET on August 21. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on August 20 and August 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces reached the central part of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through some Russian defenses south of Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces succeeded in the direction southeast of Robotyne and south of Mala Tokmachka, and that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked east of Robotyne.[2] Malyar and Russian sources stated that fighting is ongoing in Robotyne.[3] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces captured some positions in a part of the Russian forward defensive lines after intensifying attacks on the Robotyne-Verbove (21km southeast of Orikhiv) line.[4] Some Russian sources reported that Russian forces retreated from some positions near Verbove as part of their elastic defense, likely in response to a Ukrainian advance south of Mala Tokmachka.[5] ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian attacks on Robotyne are tactically significant because a Ukrainian advance in the area may allow Ukrainian forces to begin operating past the densest Russian minefields.[6] Ukrainian advances across fields in this area likely confirm this assessment. Persistent Ukrainian advances in the Robotyne area also likely aim to degrade Russian forces that have committed significant effort, resources, and personnel to hold positions around Robotyne.

Ukrainian forces also reportedly advanced in the Bakhmut and Kreminna directions over the past week and continue counteroffensive operations south and southeast of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.[7] Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces recaptured three square kilometers around Bakhmut over the past week and 43 square kilometers in total since Wagner Group forces captured Bakhmut in May 2023.[8] Ukrainian Severodonetsk City Administration Head Andriy Vlasenko reported that Ukrainian forces achieved some unspecified successes south of Kreminna while conducting active mobile defenses in the area.

Russian milbloggers continue to indicate that Russian forces lack equipment and suffer from low morale along the entire frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces – especially the 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) and 2nd Combined Arms Army (Central Military District), both operating in eastern Ukraine – lack light transportation vehicles, which inhibits them from using equipment and operating effectively and reduces their morale.[10] The milblogger claimed that Russian personnel must register their privately-owned vehicles with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), after which their vehicles disappear or get transferred elsewhere.[11] The milblogger claimed that Russian commanders regularly punish servicemen who keep their vehicles for minor administrative violations and that Russian personnel feel that they are “at war” with their commanders.[12] A Russian milblogger claimed on August 21 that Russian authorities have not provided Russian forces operating in the Kherson direction with boats and have ignored milbloggers’ ongoing appeals since July 2.[13] “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky claimed that Russian forces continue to face problems with counterbattery operations after Russian forces began experiencing artillery systems shortages and claimed that Russian forces began to receive “outdated” D-20 towed gun-howitzers.[14] Khodakovsky claimed that the “outdated” D-20 howitzers are not suitable for counterbattery combat, possibly referring to barrel wear from constant use that makes tube artillery less accurate over time.[15] Multiple milbloggers have claimed that Russian forces lack adequate counterbattery capabilities, especially since Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army Major General Ivan Popov’s dismissal in early July.[16] Another Russian milblogger, however, claimed that Russian forces are improving artillery tactics and that artillery units have become far more accurate than they were a year ago.[17] The milblogger may be suggesting that mobilized personnel who did not have prior military experience have learned to accurately strike targets. Ongoing complaints from Russian personnel suggest that the Russian MoD is unwilling or unable to address persistent equipment shortages and problems with low morale. Russian forces may be improving tactics and learning from previous mistakes as the war continues, however. The protraction of the conflict resulting in part from delays in the provision of Western aid to Ukraine gives Russian forces time to improve and to learn from their mistakes.

The Russian MoD is creating new military formations possibly to allow more combat effective units currently defending in Kherson Oblast to redeploy to more critical sectors of the front. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on August 21 that the Russian military is highly likely forming the new 18th Combined Arms Army (CAA) from other units currently operating in Kherson Oblast, including the 22nd Army Corps.[18] The UK MoD reported that the new army will consist mostly of mobilized personnel and will focus on defensive operations in southern Ukraine.[19] Russian authorities in Dalnegorsk, Primorsky Krai stated on June 5 that the newly created 25th CAA (Southern Military District), for which the Russian MoD has been recruiting volunteers from the Russian Far East since mid-May, will deploy to Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts in December 2023.[20] The Russian MoD previously formed the 3rd Army Corps (Western Military District) in the summer of 2022 from mostly volunteer battalions which were then largely destroyed in Kharkiv Oblast and Bakhmut.[21] The formation and reported future deployment of the new 18th and 25th CAAs to southern Ukraine are likely meant to allow more effective standing formations such as the 49th CAA (Southern Military District) currently operating in Kherson Oblast to redeploy to more critical sectors of the front possibly to reinforce combat-weary Russian forces degraded defensive lines.

Russian insider sources indicated that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have decisively won Russian President Vladimir’s Putin favor following the June 24 Wagner Group rebellion. A Russian insider source claimed that Putin postponed a meeting with Alexey Dyumin, former Putin bodyguard and current Tula Oblast governor, and forced Dyumin to publicly escort Shoigu at the recent Army-2023 Forum in Moscow.[23] The insider source claimed that the Kremlin wants to portray Shoigu and Dyumin as having positive relations and to gauge public reactions.[24] The Kremlin, however, likely aimed to publicly subordinate Dyumin to Shoigu. Dyumin and Shoigu have notably had a tense relationship, and Russian milbloggers recently floated Dyumin as a replacement for Shoigu immediately after the Wagner Group’s rebellion on June 24.[25] A Wagner-affiliated source claimed that the Russian General Staff now has “carte blanche” and has purged all proteges of Army General Sergey Surovikin, a former deputy theater commander and Wagner affiliate who was reportedly ousted and placed under house arrest.[26] The source also claimed that unspecified aspects of the Putin-Wagner deal collapsed for unknown reasons, which could indicate increased Putin favor for Shoigu and Gerasimov if true. Putin also recently publicly met with Gerasimov in Rostov-on-Don for the first time since the Wagner rebellion, which further indicates that Putin has fully aligned himself with Shoigu and Gerasimov despite their military failure and inability to stop the rebellion.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be attempting to re-establish Wagner in Africa, and some Russian sources are portraying this reported effort as necessary for Wagner’s survival. A Wagner-affiliated source claimed that Wagner representatives and possibly Prigozhin himself arrived in Mali on August 19 possibly to discuss the regional security situation or cooperation with Niger.[28] Another prominent Wagner-affiliated source published footage of Prigozhin on August 21 in which Prigozhin claims to be in Africa and claims that Wagner is increasing its presence in Africa.[29] A Russian insider source claimed that Prigozhin began a media campaign to portray Nigeriens as begging for Wagner’s intervention in order to help Wagner secure a contract with Niger and thereby save Wagner.[30] The source claimed that Wagner has struggled with significant personnel and financial issues from funding cuts following the June 24 rebellion and the recent claimed (but unconfirmed) withdrawal from Belarus.[31] Wagner likely has thousands of personnel to dedicate to operations in Africa if Wagner is able to both secure a contract and deploy personnel from Russia and Belarus, actions that Prigozhin may see as Wagner’s final option to maintain its independence from the Russian MoD.

Some Russian sources are likely running an information operation to exaggerate the degree to which Wagner is struggling to survive, possibly in support of the Russian MoD effort to destroy Prigozhin’s reputation and the whole Wagner Group. Russian insider sources are increasingly portraying Shoigu and Gerasimov as having Putin’s full support and ousting insubordinate commanders while painting Wagner as a private military company increasingly struggling to survive.[32] ISW has observed indicators that the Wagner Group is struggling to maintain coherence, including recent reports of conflict within the Wagner high-level representatives.[33] These Russian sources may be exaggerating the degree to which Wagner is struggling, however, especially if reports of Prigozhin’s travel to Africa are accurate and his reported efforts to secure contracts for Wagner are successful. Shoigu likely seeks to deal a final blow to Wagner but may struggle to make that blow decisive. A Russian milblogger noted that the Russian MoD may struggle to replace Wagner in Africa as Russian forces need time to train before deploying, have not established the connections with locals that Wagner has, and may destabilize conflicts rather than quell them.[34] If Wagner is able to secure contracts in Africa and deploy its personnel before the Russian MoD can deploy personnel, then Prigozhin and Wagner may retain at least some ability to operate independently in Africa contrary to the MoD’s efforts to eliminate Wagner.


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine.
Russian milbloggers continue to indicate that Russian forces lack equipment and suffer from low morale along the entire frontline.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is creating new military formations possibly to allow more combat effective units currently defending in Kherson Oblast to redeploy to more critical sectors of the front.
Russian insider sources indicated that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have decisively won Russian President Vladimir’s Putin favor following the June 24 Wagner Group rebellion.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be attempting to re-establish Wagner in Africa, and some Russian sources are portraying this reported effort as necessary for Wagner’s survival.
Some Russian sources are likely running an information operation to exaggerate the degree to which Wagner is struggling to survive, possibly in support of the Russian MoD effort to destroy Prigozhin’s reputation and the whole Wagner Group.
Russian sources made and walked back claims about significant Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction amid continued offensive actions on August 21.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and advanced near Bakhmut.
The Russian government continues to introduce mandatory nationalistic and militaristic courses into high school curriculum to promote military service among Russian youth.
Belarusian authorities reportedly exposed forcibly deported Ukrainian children to pro-Kremlin propaganda in Belarus.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21-2023

Russia on Tuesday said one of its jets it had “destroyed” a Ukrainian reconnaissance boat near a gas production facility in the Black Sea. Russia also said it had downed two attack drones near Moscow overnight, which makes it the fifth consecutive night the Russian capital has been targeted by such attacks.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230822-%F0%9F%94%B4live-russia-claims-it-destroyed-ukrainian-reconnaissance-boat-in-black-sea

- Russia's top general Sergei Soerovikin, who is said to have links with Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner group, has been removed from his position, according to Russian media . He hadn't been seen in public for months.

A supersonic Russian bomber is said to have been destroyed by Ukrainians. This is evident from various reports, reports the BBC. It would be Tupolev Tu-22, BBC Verify concludes after analyzing photos on Telegram.

- The Russian Defense Ministry says it has 'destroyed' a Ukrainian army reconnaissance ship early Tuesday morning in the Black Sea . That would have happened with a Russian fighter plane, the ministry says in a message on Telegram.

- Moscow's three largest airports suspended flights early Tuesday morning , according to the Russian news agency TASS. It concerns the three international airports Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo. The last two have now resumed flights, Vnukovo remained closed.

- The Ukrainian city of Zaporizhia, in the southeast of the country, has again fallen victim to attacks by Shahed-type drones in the night from Monday to Tuesday, according to media reports.

The US government has approved the sale of 96 Apache attack helicopters to Poland . The State Department has reported this to Congress, which has the right to block the deal. However, no objections are expected.

Poland's decision to buy the Apaches stems from concern over neighboring Russia's invasion of Ukraine . The U.S. attack helicopters are to replace the aging Soviet-era helicopter fleet . The sale is worth around 12 billion dollars (more than 11 billion euros). The Apaches will be supplied by Boeing.

Poland announced in January that it plans to spend 4 percent of its gross domestic product on defense this year . That is well above the NATO target of 2 percent.

In June, the country received US Abrams tanks as part of a US$1.4 billion deal. These were combat vehicles previously used by the US Marine Corps. Last year, Poland also purchased 250 modern Abrams M1A2 tanks, which are expected to be delivered by the end of 2024. This makes Poland the first country outside the US to have those tanks.

Yevgeny Prigozhin listed among passengers in plane crash. All ten passengers are listed as dead, according to sources.
https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...-passenger-list-plane/story?id=102497445

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane
23 August 2023, 18:12 BST
Updated 6 minutes ago
Breaking News image
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a plane which crashed in Russia, killing all 10 on board.

He was believed to be on board the plane.

Earlier, a Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported that the jet was shot down by air defences in Tver region, north of Moscow.

Prigozhin led a failed mutiny against the Russian armed forces in June

Image of crash site.

Prigozhin was a dead man walking, it was just a matter of time.