Roth's plan. Really?

Hello all. A GF fan from down under here.

I have loved the trilogy for decades. Yes, even part 3. I acknowledge it's not in the same league as its two predecessors, but it's a fine film anyway.

To my point. I have never understood Roth's plan. He sent Johnny Ola to Tahoe to reassure Michael that he wouldn't object if he pushed Klingmann out. This had the desired effect. It eased Michael's concerns and made him entirely relaxed and comfortable. You can clearly see this in his conversation with Johnny. In other words, Roth had Michael exactly where he wanted him.

What he should have done is ... absolutely nothing! The Havana meeting was already in the works. Michael arrives in Cuba, blissfully unaware and is executed. Roth wins.

Instead, he instigated the most ham-fisted assassination attempt, which fails spectacularly. Michael's legendary cunning comes to the fore and we know the outcome.

I know my way wouldn't make for much of a film, but it's surely smarter?

Greetings, most valued friend.

I think the Tahoe assassination would give Roth plausible deniability. Michael just had a good meeting with Ola, a bad one with Frankie, so it looks like Frankie made the hit. If Michael dies in Havana, everyone will assume it was Roth.

I hear ya on the above but it is kind of dumb luck with the bad meeting with Frankie; was Johnny Ola at the table eating that night when Frankie spilled the wine? Lucab19 right on with your theory but like you said movie is over. Michael also knew that people were not going to be happy with him doing what he did before the move to Nevada

I always assumed that Roth would use his association with Batista to ensure that Michael's death would be blamed on Castro and his rebels. It was a very chaotic time in Cuba.

And thank you.

What Pete said, very succinctly. I'll be less succinct:

Roth's overarching goal was to get rid of Michael, who'd been encroaching on his gaming empire since he got back from Sicily. Roth strung him along, waiting for the perfect opportunity. Plan A, Tahoe, looked like that opportunity--Pentangeli, contentious over Michael taking the Rosatos' side, would make the perfect fall guy for Michael's murder. I'm guessing that, prior to the Tahoe shooting, Roth spun out a scenario in which Michael would eventually come to Cuba, meet President Batista, and be anointed as Roth's heir and successor. Oh, and Michael would have to bring $2 million as a bribe for Batista (to add credibility to the Havana tale). They might even have set a date for the Havana trip. But, if the Tahoe shooting had succeeded, that trip obviously would have been moot. So would the $2 million--but it was secondary to Roth's goal of having Michael killed.

Roth, resourceful fellow, immediately moved to Plan B: Bring Michael to Havana, get the $2 million, and use part or all of it to bribe Batista to have Michael killed. Now, the $2 million was essential to Roth's plan B. One of the marvels of that last scene in Roth's Havana hotel suite is that both Michael and Roth were on to each other, but they were still hanging tough: Roth for the $2 million, Michael still buying time to find out who was the traitor in his family.

Yes. Michael would be driven to his hotel in a military car. SIM, Batista's secret police, would attack the car with weapons associated with Castro's rebels. It'd look like another rebel/government skirmish, and an unfortunate gringo got caught in the crossfire.

We'd debated this in various threads

Roth was slippin' with the Tahoe shooting and Pentangeli as the fall guy
Murdering Michael in Havana would have been the perfect hit

Michael's Murder / Perjury trap plans as we saw after the events, were -
Plan A – Tahoe bedroom shooting
Plan B – Michael's murder in Havana
Plan C – Senate hearing / brilliant perjury trap

I believe, the incredibly resourceful and astute Roth, friend and associate of Batista, would have meticulously concocted Plan B after the failed Plan A Tahoe shooting attempt – Michael's murder in Havana, such a terribly unfortunate death, caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising in spite of being escorted in a military car

Nobody would have expected Michael to survive! the Tahoe machine gun fire in such a confined space of a bedroom

Vito was hit with five shots and survived Michael's bedroom was machine gun sprayed and survived
Where do they find these assassins who couldn't shoot fish in a barrel!

Roth's plan would have been to stay on in Havana after Michael's assassination Then Roth
1. had his stroke
2. was nearly killed by Michael's bodyguard Buscetta in his hospital room
3. was taken out of Havana on a private boat
4. was in a hospital in Miami recovering from his stroke
5. surfaces in Israel

Plan C – Senate hearing / brilliant perjury trap

• So who put together the Senate hearing
• How did they know / find out Pentangeli was alive let alone FBI has Pentangeli air-tight, on an army base twenty-four hour guards
• How did they know / find out Pentangeli was being prepared to testify against Michael
• How did it come about the Senate Lawyer Questadt belongs to Roth
• Did Questadt have Roth's brain -- uh -- for big deals

This raises an interesting point

Roth could have concocted Plan B with Batista's help but was in no state for Plan C
Why would he have back up plans when Nobody would have expected Michael to survive! Plan A failing which Plan B

Previously we'd debated Geary would have known about the senate hearing when they were in Havana but never warned Michael but plan C was not in place then

So how did they get their hands on it?

Michael's business with Roth was about getting his hands on Roth's Havana gaming empire. That was the basis of his meeting with Ola at Anthony's party. Though Roth planned to have Michael killed after that party ("Plan A"), he would have told Michael all along that he'd have to come to Cuba, meet Batista and get his ok to succeed Roth--and hand over $2 million. That tale would have been a credibility-builder to relax Michael and make him focus down the road--not on the possibility that he'd be whacked before then. That's why Plan B was so brilliant: it was a perfect backup in case Plan A failed.

As for Geary: I believe he wasn't as dumb as he seemed. I think that, as a member of the Senate subcommittee, he had to know that they were holding Pentangeli as a surprise witness against Michael. His question to Cicci--did he get direct orders from Michael Corleone or was there always a buffer in between--was designed to get Cicci to reply: "I never talked to him," which would make Michael think he could get away with lying under oath rather than pleading the Fifth Amendment. I believe that Geary did it to avenge himself against Michael setting him up with the hooker murder in Fredo's brothel. All that BS he said at the hearing about his fine, salt-of-the-earth Italian-American constituents was designed to make him look like he was on Michael's side.

But was it? Michael saw through it immediately, and but for Roth's timely heart ailment, would have been the one to strike - "Hyman Roth will never see the new year"

I don't want to belabour the point but what you call a backup plan I maintain should have been the primary plan.

How did Roth last so long in that business? By being a behind the scenes guy who didn't put his head above the parapets. The one time he did, it got kicked in. His Rosato brothers misdirection wasn't going to fool anyone; did he think the other families would allow him to pull the strings and try to control the New York underworld?

If Michael had died in Plan A - Tahoe bedroom shooting, Roth still would have been “behind the scenes guy who didn't put his head above the parapets” and would have continued to live like our average neighbour, harmless old man eating Tuna sandwich for lunch! ie: retired investor on a pension

“Rosato brothers misdirection” certainly fooled Michael until Michael survived the Tahoe shooting

Besides I too believe as Turnbull posted “Roth's overarching goal was to get rid of Michael, who'd been encroaching on his gaming empire” not “to pull the strings and try to control the New York underworld”

“Michael saw through it [Plan B – Michael's murder in Havana] immediately” only because of the failure of Plan A - Tahoe bedroom shooting

If Batista hadn't been forced to resign, I believe

• Michael would undoubtedly have been murdered by Roth's pre-arranged assassins, in the military car plan or somehow if Michael refused the protection offer
• Roth too would have died smothered by Michael's bodyguard Buscetta in his hospital room

I don't disagree the why and how the sequence of events played out

However the basis of Ola's meeting with Michael at Anthony's party was about the casino Michael was interested in, moving Klingman out and Roth going along with Michael's take over of that casino of which Roth was part-owner?

All this of course was a non-event as Michael was going to be murdered that night Plan A Tahoe bedroom shooting

As as far as I can recall, there was no mention of Roth's Havana gaming empire at the said meeting

I agree Roth's fancy! Havana “tale would have been a credibility-builder” in keeping with Roth-Michael / Father-Son alliance! 'knowing' Michael will never see Havana

After the failed Plan A Tahoe bedroom shooting attempt, Roth would have concocted Plan B – Michael's murder in Havana
Since nobody would have expected Michael to survive! the Tahoe shooting, I doubt there would have been any back up plans

Whilst Roth did come up with Plan B – Michael's murder in Havana after the failed Plan A nobody could have foreseen Batista's resignation which again foiled Roth's second attempt on Michael's life

Whilst I appreciate Pentangeli was already being prepared to testify against Michael, hospitalised Roth could not have had anything to do with what we have been giving Roth credit! for as his Plan C – Senate hearing / brilliant perjury trap

Besides according to Roth's Plan A and then Plan B Michael would have been dead

However the Senate hearing must have been already work in progress with Pentangeli being prepared to testify against Michael so the Senate Lawyer Questadt who belongs to Roth must have got the ball rolling

Geary would have been smug in Havana thinking “Have I got a deal! “to avenge himself against Michael” waiting back home

My take on Geary's ambiguous! speech
I believe Geary's speech, the ever so slippery! customer he was, was very cleverly designed, extolling the virtues of the great Italian Americans but having a go at [rotten apple] Michael without seeming to...

Geary was not taking any chances though Geary expected Michael to go to prison for perjury, Geary knew it would be just a matter of time before Michael's long-reaching tentacles of death comes calling wherever he is, how well he is protected

The esteemed colleague Geary was always on Geary's side

I agree, with a little bit of vengeance for Moe Greene on the side. And the best chance of achieving it was surely colluding with his mate Bautista and blaming it on Castro. I believed that then and I believe that now.

I find it implausible that Geary was participating in a perjury trap. At the end, he remains exactly as vulnerable to blackmail as he was going in, and even if Michael were immediately jailed, he doesn't want to give a vengeance motive to people like Hagen and Neri.

Geary references his "own committee." I think that Geary is not a member of the gambling committee, but is sitting in under the cover of the special interest a Nevada senator has in the links between legal and illegal gambling. I don't think a senator who was assigned to the committee, with it's attendant publicity, would give priority to a hearing on any other matter at that time. I think that Geary sat in just long enough to introduce the notion that the committee was an example of anti-Italian prejudice, then left because his usefulness to the Corleones was at an end, with his own committee as an excuse that he himself had scheduled.

I believe that Geary knew he was Mike's puppet,and would never risk angering the Corleone's. He knew first hand what they were capable of, and in jail or not,Mike could drop the hammer on him.

Being a Senator, Geary was probably immune from being killed,given the incredible heat that it would bring,but his weak spots were women and greed.

So maybe next time,instead of one dead hooker,he gets caught with one (or two) live ones. The newspaper people and cops on the Corleone payroll make sure it's not covered up,and Bada Beep Bada Boop, no more Senate job. Or, he gets set up taking bribes,maybe a little laundering scheme to avoid taxes, and same result.

So as long as Mike needed him, Geary was his man.

I am warming up to Plan A being brilliant, beautifully put together by Roth
If Michael had died, nobody would suspect him

He would have continued to fly under the radar having achieved his goal of getting rid of Michael and in addition Corleones in total disarray and could even gets to pick up their business after all the bloodshed

Geary was a slippery! customer and his ambiguous! speech wanting to avenge himself against Michael but also careful not to upset him, not to rock the boat

I thought Michael didn't know that the senate hearing was up and running that Cicci had testified or Geary's question to him and his reply: "I never talked to him,"

We'd debated Michael pleading the Fifth Amendment was never an option

Michael did know about Cicci's testimony. "I never talked to him" tricked Michael into believing that the subcommittee had no one who could testify that they gotten a direct order--and that he could safely lie under oath and deny all the accusations leveled against him.

Mr Turnbull could you, uh -- amplify your answer a bit?

The Chairman told Michael at the beginning of the Senate hearing

How did Michael know about Cicci's testimony and Geary questioning Cicci?

Plan A – Tahoe bedroom shooting

You're still my brother
I acknowledge Michael dying “wouldn't make for much of a film”! but if Michael had, Roth played this one beautifully and the Corleones would have been in “total disarray” with Michael's sudden death

Then bonus! Roth sits back and “could even gets to pick up their business after all the bloodshed”

Plan B – Michael's murder in Havana

You're still my brother
Sure thing Turnbull my only debating point! is nobody back home knew that “Roth had promised big chunks of his Havana gaming empire to other operators” at Roth's birthday party
However I agree Havana is great It's Roth's kinda town and Michael was Roth's invited guest

Whilst Michael's murder in Havana seemingly such a terribly unfortunate death, caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising in spite of being escorted in a military car, it still could have certainly raised significant suspicions that Michael was the only one who died

Roth has to answer for Michael

How'd Michael know it was Roth?

You're still my brother

The assassins had plenty of time too
1. Michael enters the bedroom
2. light is on
3. drapes are open
4. Michael spends time looking at the drawing Anthony had left him
5. Michael spends time talking to Kay who was already in bed
6. Michael stands by the window in full view of the assassins
7. Michael is silhouetted perfectly as an easy target
8. After all this time, assassins start spraying the bedroom with machine gun fire
9. Michael ducks, drops to the floor
10. Michael 'propels' himself on his stomach towards the bed
11. Michael pops his head up and pulls Kay down from the bed

Roth's best-laid plans....Yet the assassins still missed! Go figure!!

Roth was unlucky All his ducks in a row Brilliant Perfect plan but assassins messed up

The chairman made that statement for the record, and for the benefit of the press covering the hearing. Of course Michael knew about Cicci's testimony--Tom would have gotten the transcripts of the hearings for him (Tom may have been present to monitor the testimony). Cicci's statement that he never talked to Michael was what emboldened him to lie under oath.

Aren't these supposed to be live, televised hearings, so that Michael would see Cicci's testimony and Frankie Michael's? That would follow the real world Kefauver hearings and give meaning to the FBI guy telling Frankie that he'd look good for 50 million Americans.

Yes indeed. The family chart looked more like those used at the Valachi hearings, which were also public.

Great analysis Lana Great insight

It is always a pleasure doing Godfather business with you!

I reckon who killed the Tahoe assassins has been answered They shot each other and Fredo must have dragged their bodies into the ditch

No doubt he wouldn't, couldn't, in fact never could take the fifth amendment and would have still lied under oath

As I remember Cicci's testimony was after Michael returned So it jells, I get the picture that he knew or had seen the transcripts because the hearings are public He did come prepared with his statement too

What did Pentangeli mean when he said Ten to one shot he would take the fifth and I lose? How did he not know Michael hadn't taken the fifth?

He's speaking after Michael testified, but he's talking about what was expected before Michael testified. Everyone in the government expected him to take the Fifth, but he didn't.

Don't forget the last part of Frankie's statement after "10-1 shot...and I lose!". He meant that, if Michael had taken the fifth, Frankie wouldn't have had to testify--and thereby wouldn't have revealed that he'd not only survived the Rosatos' murder attempt, but that he was also a rat. "My life won't be worth a nickle after this," he added.

Thank you Senators!

Michael pleading the fifth was “what was expected before Michael testified” and what Pentangeli wanted [hoping for]

Didn't they know Michael? Didn't they know that's an impossibility that it could never happen!

• Could you expand on your answer, I'm particularly interested in knowing....

What would Pentangeli have done if Tom hadn't visited with his 'helpful push' for Pentangeli to sit in a hot bath, open up his veins and bleed to death

Pentangeli would have known he was not going to be able to continue living better than most people on the outside ie: “what will happen as a result of his denial” having already stated "My life won't be worth a nickle after this," even before he recanted his sworn affidavit having been jolted into honouring the Omertà by the icy stare of his brother Vincenzo

Thank you Evita

I'll take it! Likewise you and the Board too

Of course they (the subcommittee chairman, Questadt, Roth) knew that Michael would bend over backward not to take the Fifth because the only permissible form of response is: "I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that my answer might tend to incriminate me." The beauty part of the plot against him was that, by hiding Pentangeli's survival until after Michael testified, and by having Cicci testify earlier that he never talked to Michael, they made him relax and think he could get away with lying under oath instead of pleading the Fifth.

Pentangeli was stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. If he testified, he'd have had a price on
his head no matter where the FBI placed him. And, the government undoubtedly offered him "immunity to testify"--if he waived his Fifth Amendment privilege and agreed to testify against Michael, he would not be prosecuted for any of the crimes he admitted to while under oath. By repudiating his affidavit, he violated the terms of his agreement. The FBI would have turned him over to NYPD, which would have prosecuted him for the crimes that Tom mentioned to Michael: "possession, Murder One.." He'd be put in the general prison population, where his life expectancy would have been about five minutes.

There's another possibility, too: When he was discussing his "future" with Tom, he talked about the Romans who had a "little party" before they killed themselves..."and their families were taken care of." Some people here think it meant that Frankie's family would be killed if he didn't commit suicide, but if he did, they'd be safe and get some financial support.

I believe Michael “pleading the Fifth” was never an option even if Michael had known about “Pentangeli's survival” before “Michael testified”

Michael & Hagen towards the end of 1
It occurred to me, seems far-fetched....
Michael locates / contacts Vincenzo out of the blue and Vincenzo comes all the way from Sicily to help Michael against Vincenzo's own brother Frankie because Omertà is more important than his own brother's life?

My take is there was never any danger of “Frankie's family would be killed” same as Vincenzo

As Tom said
ie: “financial support” if the planners killed themselves

As far as Michael is concerned nobody gets a pass Everybody who plotted against Michael must die whether Frankie the good old man who was loyal to Michael's father for years or Fredo, Michael's own 'weak and stupid' brother

“Pentangeli was stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place” indeed
I had forgotten the NYPD and Frankie's "possession, Murder One.." and a lot more!

Why because He's old fashion? Only Michael could get him out, get him away from that two mule town Go figure!

So, what's your answer gonna be, Turnbull?

Why help Michael against Vincenzo's own brother Frankie

The answer, I believe, is when the committee chairman hurriedly adjourns the meeting. Tom turns to Vincenzo and says in Italian, "The honor of the family is secure." This tells me that Michael and Tom convinced Vincenzo to come to America because they told him that Frankie was going to dishonor the family by breaking omerta and testifying for the Law. But, by showing up, Vincenzo would shame Frankie into shutting up. It's also possible that Vincenzo's presence might threaten Frankie by implying that if he dishonored the family, Vincenzo would be obligated to take vengeance against Frankie's family.

Tom told the committee earlier that Vincenzo came to America "at his own expense to help his brother in his time of need." By preventing Frankie from going through with breaking omerta, Vincenzo helped his brother.

I know I'm not the one you asked, but if I can add you two cents : Vincenzo didn't act in order to help Michael. He acted in order to save the family's honor.
Yes, if Frankie snitched, the Pentangeli 's reputation would be irremediably lost.

At the end of the trial, Tom (?? I think??) turns to him and says in Sicilian:" The honor of your family is intact."

That would be important for Vincenzo. Essential enough to leave his two-mule town to set his brother straight and then go back. Not in the States to go sightseeing.

Oops! I didn't see your answer, Turnbull.

Makes sense Wow! rather die than break Omertà

Vincenzo's help to his brother Frankie was “preventing Frankie from going through with breaking Omertà” which benefited Michael nicely! and “Pentangeli reputation” and “honor of the family is secure“


Michael told Kay at Hotel Washington

Thanks for the answers

Wow! rather die than break Omertà

Came across this video I found very interesting

Thanks for posting this, Irishman, I always appreciate serious, detailed analyses of Trilogy plot themes.

In this case, I think the answer is much simpler: Michael knew, almost immediately after the Tahoe attack, that Roth was behind it. Only two people--Pentangeli and Roth--could have benefited from killing Michael. Pentangeli was the obvious one because of his beef over the Rosato brothers and his desire to get Michael off his back. But, he was too obviously set up as the patsy for the shooting. The big prize was Havana, not three territories in the Bronx. As Pentangeli admitted to Michael in NY (and as Michael already knew), "I don't have your head for the big deals." Contrary to what this film says, Michael already knew it was Roth when he met with Pentangeli in NY--he said so to Pentangeli--and before all the play-acting Roth did in Havana. The only outstanding doubt was to find out who was the traitor in his family.

A long time ago I posted that greed blinds otherwise intelligent people to the obvious--and dangerous. Michael's greed for controlling all the legal gambling in Nevada and Havana blinded him to the obvious: Why would Roth sit still for Michael's killing of Roth's best friend, Moe Green? Why would Roth sit back and let Michael barge into Nevada gaming almost as soon as he returned from Sicily, and take over Klingman's holding in a hotel Roth part-owned? Why would Roth--if, as Michael said, thought he'd live forever--turn over all his Havana holdings to Michael? And why, especially, would Roth, who lived in Miami and had business interests in Nevada and Havana, involve himself in a penny-ante dispute over three territories in the Bronx?

Michael didn't see all of this before the Tahoe shooting because greed blinded him to the obvious. The bullets flying in his bedroom opened his eyes.

I appreciate videos like this too Turnbull. I'm glad you do as well. A little long but worth the watch. One of the reasons I liked Part I more than Part II was the story of II was always a little confusing to me. This cleared up a lot of it.