Michael & Roth's casinos

At his birthday party in Havana, Roth tells Michael and the assembled guests:

"At the time of my retirement -- or death -- I turn over all my interests in the Havana operation to [Michael's] control. But -- all of you will share. The National will go to the Lakeville Road boys. The Capri to the Corleone Family. The Sevilla Biltmore, also, but Eddie Levine of Newport will bring in the Pennino Brothers -- Dino and Eddie - for a piece, and also to handle the actual casino operation. And we've saved a piece for some friends in Nevada, to make sure things go smooth back home."

Michael just sits back and smiles.

I find this hard to believe. Michael was driven--to gain control of Roth's Havana gaming empire. Now, in Havana, Michael gets only one hotel (the Capri) free and clear. Roth says he'll give the biggest one (the Nacional) to another mob, and Michael has to share a third (the Sevilla Biltmore) with the Peninno brothers), who get the most lucrative casino operations. And other holdings will go to other people or mobs.

Why would he complacently sit by as Roth promised what seems to be most of his Havana holdings to others? I have my views, but I'd love to hear yours.

Well TB, what could he do? Is he going to argue with Ross in front of everybody? What would that accomplish? Ross intends to murder Michael anyway and Michael intends to murder Roth. So any intended distribution of Roth's assets is moot.

I guess it's as important to know what Michael gets as what the others do. For instance, if Michael's being juiced in for points in future gambling projects then that could be a pretty big deal.

To elaborate on what Oli said succinctly:

Michael’s objective was to be the biggest legal gaming mogul in the Western Hemisphere—at that time, Nevada and Havana. I’m guessing that Roth mentioned to him, early on in their negotiations, that he’d give some of his Havana empire to others for the reason he stated later at his birthday party: “to make sure things go smooth at home." Michael went along because he had no choice, and, probably, because he figured that, once Roth stepped down, he’d either buy out the others, or force them out, as he had Klingman.

The Tahoe shooting showed Michael that the only thing he’d get from Roth was a death certificate. So, his objective for the Havana meeting was to string Roth along until he found out who was the traitor in his family, then have Roth killed before Roth had him killed. The high percentages of his holdings that Roth said he’d give to others may have surprised Michael, but at that point the percentages were moot—Roth would “never see the New Year,” as he told Fredo. The grenade killing showed Michael that Batista was soon going to be history. But I don’t think he had given up on Havana at that point. Even if the rebels won, he probably convinced himself that they wouldn’t shut down the casinos—Cuba’s third biggest industry after sugar and minerals.

There was a possible complication. Michael had to leave Havana immediately after Roth’s murder to escape possible arrest or questioning. That’s why he had the private plane waiting. With Roth apparently dead, what was to stop the Lakeville Road Boys, Eddie Levine of Newport, and the Pennino brothers, from moving immediately to claim their shares—and perhaps Michael’s, since he wasn’t there to stop them? Michael had to wait until he thought it was safe to return to Havana. The others may have thought that they didn’t have to wait—it was their big chance to go one-up on Michael.

Batista’s abdication on New Year’s Eve was a stroke of good luck for Michael—nobody could do anything until the dust settled and the rebels took over. As it happened, Castro immediately closed the casinos, and eventually nationalized all American property. By waiting, Michael saved $2 million.

(N.B.: In real life, Castro reopened the casinos after a few weeks because the hotel and casino workers’ unions pressured him. He hired Joe Louis as official greeter at the casinos, and ran newspaper ads in the US explaining that his differences were with the US Government, not American citizens, whom he loved. No one believed him, and Americans stayed away. The casinos and brothels were shuttered permanently. As a result of Cuba no longer being a prime US vacation paradise, other countries in the Caribbean and the northern rim of South America stepped in and legalized gambling.)

Michael threw a spanner in the works by stating “the rebels could win” Nicely done! The look on Roth's face was priceless indeed

My wife and I visited Cuba 14 months ago. The tour guides all spoke reverently about Meyer Lansky (the real life Roth), but they were probably giving the gringo tourists a good time, so to speak. The Nacional is still Havana's poshest hotel. A major attraction for tourists is a nightly, full-tilt floor show that they bill as an "authentic" re-creation of the kind of lavish costumed gala that we saw in GFII.

No, we didn't see a "Superman" show while we were there. A guy I worked with years ago, who grew up in Miami, played in his HS orchestra. As a reward, the school treated the seniors in the orchestra to a weekend in Havana. He said that, as soon as the ferry from Miami docked in Havana, local touts besieged the kids with offers to see shows "just like Superman."

Sure thing Turnbull that's what they all say!

Whilst both Michael and Roth have already made arrangements for the other to be murdered “will never see the New Year” both continued playing out the charade

Roth begins with “I turn over all my interests in the Havana operation to [Michael's] control. But -- all of you will share” [Key words all and share]

Does this mean Michael – Roth's heir apparent! - still has controlling interest in,
1. The Nacional over the Lakeville Road boys
2. The Sevilla Biltmore over Eddie Levine and the Pennino Brothers
3. The saved piece over the friends in Nevada

That's why! "Michael just sits back and smiles"

BTW: Meyer Lansky, the real-life "Roth," did not own casinos in Havana until very late. He was a big pal of Batista, the once and future dictator of Cuba. After Batista returned in a coup in 1952, he found that tourists were staying away because gambling was hopelessly crooked. Batista brought in Lansky to clean up gambling because Lansky had a reputation for giving the suckers a fair shake--he wasn't greedy, house odds were good enough for him. Batista paid him $100k/year--a small fortune then. He installed his brother Jake as casino manager at the Nacional, and I'm guessing he was in on the skim. But, Santos Trafficante, the Don of Tampa, FL, was the biggest actual owner in Havana. Lansky was the gatekeeper between Batista and the gangsters, and he probably profited from that arrangement, too.

Lansky finally built a hotel/casino, the Riviera, with $5 million of his money and another $6 million from Batista and others. It opened in March, 1958, and started making big bucks. Then Castro took over in January 1959, and Lansky lost everything.

Smooth talking Roth certainly looked like he was anointing Michael as his heir apparent and giving him control of all his interests

That birthday party "anointing" of Michael was an insurance policy for Roth. If his plan to have Michael whacked had succeeded, and people started pointing the finger at him, he could say, "What, me, have Michael killed? Why, I loved him like my son. I was gonna turn over my entire Havana gaming empire to him--just ask any of those thugs who were at my birthday party."

My take, for what it is worth!

Why would Roth [or Michael] need insurance policies?

Nobody other than Fredo and us, the Godfather scholar! Board members knew about Michael and Roth's murder plots of each other

Neither Tom, Neri nor Rocco had any idea and were totally in the dark about - if my memory serves me right, among others,

• It was Roth who tried to kill Michael in the Tahoe bedroom shooting
• Roth's plan B to murder Michael in Havana
• Roth's “anointing" of Michael that Roth “was gonna turn over his entire Havana gaming empire to Michael”
• Fredo was the traitor in the family
• Frankie Pentangeli was alive
• Roth's Plan C – Senate hearing in which Willie Cicci had already been grilled
• Senator Geary was no longer in the Corleones' pocket

If Michael had died, it would seem such a terribly unfortunate death, caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising in spite of being escorted in a military car

If Roth had died smothered by a pillow it could seem a natural death caused by Roth's stroke

So, I believe, neither Michael nor Roth 'needed' insurance policies Whom did they have to answer to? Everyone none the wiser

I doubt! Roth would have used / lost his own money like Meyer Lansky

The ever astute Roth as clever as he is, would have sweet talked all the other 'investors' into financing his [American and Cuban] interests and since Roth always made money for his partners there would have been no complaints

No wonder Roth still had all his millions to offer for his rejected asylum in various countries

Michael too was going to invest $2 million if not for the Tahoe shooting and “the rebels could win”

These insurance policies and alibis don't ring true Whom did they have to answer to?

If Michael had died everything died with him and everyone none the wiser They came to know of Roth's tactics and Fredo's betrayal only because he survived

As we saw at Anthony's party, Rocco and Neri were in on the meeting with Michael and Ola--probably because they were going to have a part in Michael's planned takeover of Roth's Havana properties. They would have been right on Roth's ass if Michael had been killed, demanding their cut.

My take, for what it is worth!

Everything was amicable in Roth and Michael's father / son alliance! Johnny Ola assured Michael at Anthony's party -

Extracts:
“The casino you're interested in.....I've been instructed to tell you that if you move Klingman out, our friend in Miami, Roth the real owner [with the old Lakeville Road group from Cleveland] will go along”

Michael: “That is very kind of him. You tell him, that's greatly appreciated”

Nobody suspected any foul play Michael himself didn't even twig straight away that it was Roth who tried to kill Michael in his Tahoe home

How Rocco and Neri “would have been right on Roth's ass if Michael had been killed, demanding their cut” [what cut?!] even if “they were probably going to have a part in Michael's planned takeover [what takeover?! Michael was Roth's heir apparent!] of Roth's Havana properties”?

Besides everything was work in progress and with Batista gone, Roth's empire like Roth's birthday cake! was gone too Nothing left to carve up for anybody's cut

Well, this is getting to be very interesting exchange of an old thread! We still find views to discuss

As Lana posted what cut?! what takeover?!

He had the private plane waiting because he didn't want to spend any more time here than he had to

Michael turned up in Havana without the $2 million, the 'little gift' to Batista probably padded with Roth's commission!

Then why would Michael get Fredo to bring the money after witnessing the rebel blowing himself up and his statement “the rebels could win”

Michael already knew, he only had until the New Year's Eve to string Roth along / chance of finding out the traitor in the family [with or without the money] both Michael and Roth having made arrangements and believing the other “will never see the New Year”

Perhaps the money was to be payment to Batista for having his thugs kill Michael. Nice touch: Michael pays for his own demise!


Michael needed to keep stringing Roth along until the very end because a) he needed time, until the very end, to find out who the traitor was; and b) Roth could have had him whacked at any time--including well before the presidential New Year's Eve party--if he was certain he wouldn't get the $2 million. The possibility of the $2 million was the only thing keeping Michael alive in Havana.

This sequence points up a major theme of the Trilogy: Greed blinds people. Michael's greed for Roth's Havana gaming empire blinded him to signs that Roth was plotting against him (like, why would Roth interest himself in a two-bit beef between the Rosato brothers and Pentangeli over three territories in the Bronx?). Roth's greed for the $2 million blinded him to signs that Michael was onto him (like, not bringing the money and predicting that the rebels would win).

My take, for what it is worth!

Nice touch indeed Michael pays for his own murder but $2 million is an awful lot of money even for the Head of the most powerful Mafia family!

Somewhat makes sense Turnbull that Michael was dangling the $2 million carrot “The possibility of the $2 million was the only thing keeping Michael alive in Havana” However a lot of Ifs!!

• Will never see the New Year

If Michael had died an unexplained violent death, it would have certainly raised suspicions, perhaps open the floodgates for Rocco and Neri to go after “Roth's ass”

Whilst Roth “could have had him [Michael] whacked at any time--including well before the presidential New Year's Eve party” I doubt, the ever astute Roth having planned so meticulously Michael's murder [terribly unfortunate death] - Michael was caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising in spite of being escorted in a military car, can be 'believable' as Roth was acting like Michael was his son – would just bring forward / change Roth's carefully considered and arranged, Michael's demise

If Roth hadn't had the stroke, a violent death [if Bussetta, Michael's bodyguard, had succeeded] would have certainly raised suspicions – I suppose could have been any one of the guests [unlikely] at Roth's birthday party, greedy for their shares right away unless Bussetta was caught red-handed in the act
[Roth had the stroke but still didn't work out]

• Traitor in the family

If Geary hadn't asked Fredo “where did you find this place?” [Superman club] Michael couldn't have been able “to find out who the traitor was”

Michael's chances of finding out the traitor were seemingly Buckley's and none Geary's question was a stroke of luck

• Havana's great It's Roth's kinda town

If Batista hadn't been forced to resign, I believe Michael would undoubtedly have been murdered by Roth's pre-arranged assassins, in the military car plan or somehow if Michael refused the protection offer

Sure thing Turnbull “major theme of the Trilogy:“ Greed and Revenge affect judgements and lead to under / over estimating especially Michael not cottoning on “why would Roth interest himself in a two-bit beef between the Rosato brothers and Pentangeli over three territories in the Bronx?”

• Roth

Roth played this one beautifully Roth had Michael completely relaxed and confident, in their friendship
When Michael visited Roth in Miami, at Roth's birthday party and after “We are bigger than US Steel” Roth was still sweet talking Michael

• Michael

Michael thought he had Roth's blessing! to move Klingman out as per Ola's message at Anthony's party

Michael didn't even twig straight away that it was Roth who tried to kill Michael in his Tahoe home, believing it was someone inside not realising an outside force [Roth] was involved

If my memory serves me right, among others -

Michael tells,
1. Tom “They [Tahoe assassins] are dead already, killed by somebody close to us – inside”
2. Roth “Pentangeli tried to have [Michael] killed.
3. Pentangeli “It was Roth who tried to have [Michael] killed I know it was Roth” How did Michael suddenly know it was Roth?

I believe, the first, we the audience notice that all is not well in Michael and Roth's friendship was when Michael and Roth gave [Kay's] that look at each, across the table when the Gold phone was being passed around

Then all hell broke loose! the charade finally exposed with Michael's “Who had Frank Pentangeli killed?” [Michael's slip up? that he didn't try to think as people around him think] and Roth's soliloquy

Extract
Anybody kinda rooting for Roth to beat Mike? So wonder how did Michael, what were the signs that made Michael realise, there was an outside force involved in the Tahoe shooting and that force was Roth?

Roth probably kept some, or most, of it for himself--Batista could be bought cheaply.



Roth's plan to have him whacked after the Presidential party was best case--as was his plan to have Michael whacked at Tahoe. But, as we saw, Roth was nothing if not resourceful. He would have quickly come up with another plan to kill Michael. Look how, after having a stroke, nearly being killed by Buscetta and having to leave Cuba, he still almost snared Michael in a perjury trap!



You probably saw a thread I started a while back whose point was that Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life. The assassins assigned to kill Michael no doubt were lurking inconspicuously at the Presidential party to make sure Michael didn't run out on them or change his plans. Wouldn't have mattered if Roth lived or died because they took their orders from Batista, who had no reason to tell them Roth was the instigator. But, after Batista resigned, the assassins were more worried about saving their own asses than about nailing Michael's.

Michael probably knew, immediately after the bullets stopped flying in his bedroom, that Roth was behind the shooting--the setup of Pentangeli as the fall guy was way too obvious. Roth had far more to gain by whacking Michael than Pentangeli did--as Frankie himself told Michael, "I don't have your head for the big deals." What obsessed Michael after the shooting was: who was the traitor in his family who was complicit in the attack?

Roth had just given his blessing! for Michael to move Klingman out and “was gonna turn over his entire Havana gaming empire to Michael”

So why / how would “Michael probably knew, immediately? after the bullets stopped flying in his bedroom” let alone suspect “that Roth was behind the shooting”

I believe, the first, we the audience see Michael could probably know Roth was responsible for the Tahoe shooting was when Michael asked Pentangeli to help Michael take his revenge – cottoning on “why Roth interested himself in a two-bit beef between the Rosato brothers and Pentangeli over three territories in the Bronx”

We the audience know in hindsight that ”Roth had far more to gain by whacking Michael than Pentangeli did”

Pentangeli always! knew never to trust Hyman Roth, Michael to never give his loyalty to Roth before his own blood indeed

If Michael had died?
I never thought Pentangeli had anything to do with the Tahoe shooting!

I believe, the incredibly resourceful and astute Roth would have already had in place [not that Michael would survive! the Tahoe machine gun fire in such a confined space of a bedroom] all the below which would have come up in Roth's meticulous preparation, to bring Michael down

Plan A – Tahoe bedroom shooting
Plan B – Michael's murder in Havana
Plan C – Senate hearing / brilliant perjury trap

I believe, Roth “quickly coming up with another plan to kill Michael” would be very difficult and not quite as believable “as Roth's best plan to have him [Michael] whacked after the Presidential party” - Michael's terribly unfortunate death

Roth's any other plan of “an unexplained violent death” would have certainly raised significant suspicions that Michael was the only one who got killed unlike the military car which the rebels attacked because the rebels thought the car was carrying important military personnel or similar

It would have been Questadt who got the Senate hearing - which I believe was already put in place by [now 'stateless'] Roth - going and “almost snared Michael in a perjury trap!”

Sure thing Turnbull “Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life”
However nobody could have predicted Batista's resignation that night, New Year's Eve

If not for Geary's question to Fredo “where did you find this place?” [Superman club] Michael couldn't have been able “to find out who the traitor was”

Extract:
So Michael as obsessed as he was after the Tahoe shooting: to find out “who was the traitor in his family who was complicit in the attack?” would act among others as below, seems implausible to me

1. put Michael's life at risk
2. took an extremely dangerous and uncharacteristically reckless chance in a foreign country
3. with little or no protection
4. knowing Michael was a marked man – New Year's Eve assassination
5. no guarantee the answer of the traitor was in Havana - Roth's kinda town
6. Michael could still find out the traitor back in Tahoe – just a matter of time
7. still has to get to the airport for the private plane

He had already found out Fredo was the traitor in the family

Then still recklessly hangs around in Havana - Roth's kinda town, attends the Presidential party with no protection having dispatched Bussetta on murder duties and knowing he is a dead man once the party is over

I used to think Michael was reckless and irresponsible for leaving his wife and kids in Tahoe, knowing there was a traitor in his family still at large. Then I realized he was being brave: he had to remove himself from Tahoe because Roth didn't care if he endangered his family in his quest to kill Michael. But, by pretending that Pentangeli was the perp, that his relationship with Roth was still good--and by coming to Havana with the promise of the $2 million--Michael was buying time with Roth to find out who the traitor was, and protecting his family by removing Roth's target (himself) from Tahoe.

Michael didn't find out that Fredo was the perp until late that evening. Expecting that Buscetta would kill Roth toute suit, he couldn't leave immediately, with Buscetta, without calling attention to both Buscetta and him, and linking both to Roth's murder. He had to go through the motions by attending the Presidential party to establish an alibi.

A real example of Michael's recklessness is in III: Told that Sicily's top assassin, a man "who never misses," is gunning for him, Michael takes Kay and Mary to the opera house, sitting in a box without any others near them--sitting ducks.

My take, for what it is worth!

I too thought similar that Michael had put business before family “for leaving his wife and kids in Tahoe” after the bedroom shooting until I read explanations including your previous posts

However I am still not convinced that Michael “probably knew immediately” who had organised the Tahoe shooting, let alone suspect Roth but I do understand why Michael removed himself from Tahoe as Michael was the target and the “traitor in his family still at large” because whoever was behind the shooting “didn't care if he endangered his family in his quest to kill Michael”

Whilst I acknowledge Michael leaving Havana without calling attention to himself could have been tricky but could have been done – excused himself! emergency back home - My brother Fredo will look after you [Geary and the other government people]

Perhaps Bussetta could have stayed back inconspicuously and carried out the murders of Roth and Ola - Difficult not impossible

What is the point of finding out who the traitor was [which had been revealed prior] if Michael is dead

I don't believe Michael 'needed' "to go through the motions by attending the Presidential party to establish an alibi” Whom did he have to answer to?

When Michael left “his wife and kids” in Tahoe Michael made arrangements for them, well protected and cared for, with Tom in charge

“Sitting ducks” in Sicily

Michael's choices However Michael was under the impression that Vincent had organised secure protection in Sicily unlike in Havana with not even Bussetta to protect Michael at the Presidential party or after

It is not like Mafia haven't kill civilian women and children Could have been anyone behind the shooting

No point finding out the traitor then Michael dead

How linking to Roth's murder? Bodyguard would have smothered by a pillow it could seem a natural death caused by the same heart attack he's been dying for twenty years

This is an interesting thread.

Regarding Michael's "recklessness" in Cuba, and whether Bautista's resignation saved his life, I think we might be selling Michael a little short.

Michael seems to know Roth's exact plan but is still confident that killing Roth will end the threat. Why?

Is it realistic that Michael assumed that word of Roth's death would get to Bautista almost immediately, and that Bautista would not only not want revenge, but would go out of his way - during the party - to urgently get a hold of the assassins and call Michael's killing off? Why would Bautista make that a priority? It hardly seems like Michael to put his life on the line based on such a flimsy turn of events.

My theory is that Michael had an entirely separate plan to assure his escape, regardless of whether Roth and Ola were killed. Maybe he bribed a legion of soldiers to protect him. Maybe he bribed Bautista himself to double-cross Roth. (BTW, Roth seems to be in the dark about how well the rebels are doing, which calls into question how close he and Bautista really were.) We never see what it was, so it's hard to speculate. But that makes much more sense that him staking his life on such a flimsy chain of events.

A lot of the posts here are based on the fact that Michael was alone in Cuba, except for Bussetta. But that is clearly false. He's arranged his own driver to take him to the airport. He's arranged a plane and a pilot who he trusted enough to stand fast even as the country crumbled around them. If Michael could arrange all that, he surely could have arranged a counter-move to the assassination plan.

Bautista's resignation didn't save Michael's life, it just meant he didn't have to activate his plot.

I tend to agree with you Woltz. Apparently, Michael had assets in Cuba; how else would he know about Roth's plan to murder him?

I don't think Michael was acting recklessly in Cuba. He operated with the confidence and assurance that he knew Roth was behind the Tahoe shooting, and that Roth wanted him in Cuba so he could be killed. He also was confident that Roth still thought Michael believed that Pentangeli was behind the shooting and that their relationship was still good. A classic example of the Corleones' craft of making your enemies relax and get careless by thinking you're weak or stupid.

Michael, like every American who read newspapers in '58, knew Batista was governing on borrowed time. He couldn't have known when Batista would resign. But, I think he was being ultra-careful by going, very visibly, to the Presidential party while Bussetta was attempting to kill Roth. He ordered the plane so he could get out of Cuba fast, before the authorities could start rounding up suspects in Roth's death. Even though Bussetta tried to smother Roth so it might look like a natural death, Batista and whoever else was in on the plot against Michael would have linked him to Roth's death--and in a dictatorship, they don't need warrants and court orders to round up suspects.

My take, for what it is worth! - from what we saw in the movie

Batista too ”seems to be in the dark about how well the rebels are doing” Batista gave assurance that according to his staff the rebels will be driven out of the city before the New Year!

Sure thing Woltz Michael arranged the below which just one phone call to the Hotel Concierge and voila! everything in place
1. his own driver to take him to the airport
2. plane and a pilot

Michael also knew a place Fredo and Michael can spend some time together

Nobody could have predicted Batista's resignation that night, New Year's Eve which resulted in the “country crumbling around them”

So, I don't think it is about Michael “trusted the pilot enough to stand fast” irrespective....
I believe, the pilot would have been just a regular commercial pilot, may not even know who his passenger/s are [arranged by the Hotel Concierge] and perhaps blissfully unaware of all the rebel uprising chaos, standing by at the Airport

As regards “Michael seems to know Roth's exact plan” for Michael's New Year's Eve assassination If my memory serves me right -
Turnbull had a credible theory that Michael would have twigged straight away as to why Michael needed to be escorted in a military car for his protection
[when according to Roth “This county's had rebels for the last fifty years It's in their blood” and it is business as usual]

Whilst Michael would among others “staking his life" seems implausible to me as well but seemingly that's what Michael did!

I don't think Michael thought “killing Roth will end the [Michael's assassination] threat” nor Batista was even a consideration for Michael because I believe Michael would not want Roth or Ola's bodies found until Michael was out of Cuba not because I believe Michael could be linked to the deaths but to avoid the hassle, delay and Michael having to play the grieving son!

I am not sure Turnbull "Michael also was confident that Roth still thought Michael believed that Pentangeli was behind the shooting and that their relationship was still good"

I believe the charade was finally exposed with Michael's “Who had Frank Pentangeli killed?” Roth's soliloquy and Ola looking smug that Michael has no idea Pentangeli is alive, Michael is no match for Roth

Mafia's code of behaviour is a convenient myth! among others,
1. Don Ciccio would have killed Vito if the orphaned Vito had been found
2. Hooker with Tattaglia
3. Geary compromise Hooker
4. Spraying machine gun fire into bedrooms with women and children would not be out of the question! either

So what we saw in the movie the fact that Michael was alone in Cuba, except for Bussetta is clearly false

Right. I'm speculating. Just because you don't see anyone in the movie but Bussetta doesn't mean he was Michael's only support. Most of what we talk about here goes beyond what's on the screen.

But we do know that Michael had a driver, a plane and a pilot. He correctly believed that his plane was "the only way out of here tonight." His life depended on getting out of Cuba ASAP, plus he remained confident that they would work for him even with Bautista's men trying to kill him and, as it turned out, even with the government being overthrown. I don't believe that he would have had that trust in people he randomly found at the concierge desk at the hotel. Those were guys he trusted, not hired hands.

True, my theory that Michael had plan to get away even if Bautista hadn't abdicated is more speculative. But it is rooted in the nature of the characters we see on the screen. Michael was cunning, cautious and stragetic. It would be hugely out of character that he would have "twigged" to Roth's plan and then walked right into it without so much as a single bodyguard. OK, he had arranged a separate car, but that would only have helped him if he made it to the car in the first place (and if the driver was prepared to out-gun Michael's military escort). Did Michael expect a team of assassins have let him simply decline their offer of a ride and go about his way? Surely, Roth would have made sure they would have kept a close eye on Michael. Could Michael have failed to realize that?

I don't think so, which is why I believe that Michael had an off-screen escape plan.

My two cents worth!

Michael and Roth sentiments aside....

What would have happened if Batista had not resigned?
No doubt I reckon the assassins assigned to kill Michael would have carried out their assignment and murdered him

We all know Coppola's fanatical attention to details that he would leave out and not even give an indication of Michael's counter-move if any, to the assassination plan which he didn't have to activate his plot due to Bautista's resignation is not in accordance

As Turnbull posted the assassins would have been shadowing him, keeping a close eye but once Batista resigned they were more worried about saving their own asses than about nailing Michael's So Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life.

How would Michael find trusted driver and pilot in foreign Havana? I reckon they were run-of-the-mill hired hands At that stage, Batista governing and nothing out of the ordinary someone hiring a private plane out of Havana after the New Year celebrations

Michael was cunning, cautious and stragetic but he did slip up with Roth in the beginning and as Turnbull posted was obsessed with finding the traitor

Exactly Woltz It would be hugely out of character as discussed uncharacteristic and implausible he was hanging around without so much as a single bodyguard.

Why he was being ultra-careful by going, very visibly, to the Presidential party? Everyone knows he is not going to personally murder!

Most of what we talk about here might go beyond what's on the screen but in conjunction with what was seen in the movie as well
It is nice, fun to flesh out the different opinions, interpretations, speculations, knowledge of the Forum members, in the spirit of the Board Why we are still going!

I''m guessing that he had Tom arrange the driver and the plane. I'm reasonably sure he was in constant touch with Tom.


I think that coming with only a personal bodyguard was part of his plan to make Roth "relax" by thinking Michael felt reasonably safe in Roth's territory and didn't suspect that Roth was going to have him killed. Then why bring a bodyguard at all, you may ask. Because not bringing any personal security would make Michael look uncharacteristically stupid by not being at all concerned with personal safety. And, by not bringing Neri and/or Rocco, he was signaling Roth that he hadn't ruled them out as possible conspirators in the Tahoe shooting.

Yes, he was being ultra-careful to distance himself from Buscetta's deed and to create an alibi for Roth's killing, "just in case."


That's it in a nutshell!

Just because you don't see anyone in the movie but Bussetta doesn't mean he was Michael's only support or means just that

How can he have guys he trusted, in foreign Havana? his plane was "the only way out of here tonight he still has to get to the airport Michael's plans worked because the government being overthrown No Batista resignation ride in the team of assassins car like Tessio Driver, separate car, private plane, pilot no use

If he had an off-screen escape plan, what would it have been?

Michael might have been in constant touch with Tom but I can't see Tom arranging the driver and plane from Tahoe Why? He would know even less about Havana than Michael who was actually in Havana

As Lana posted, the hotel concierge arranging them makes more sense and I also reckon they were regular hired hands

Keep up! Turnbull
I don't think any of us are disputing Michael's plan coming with only a personal bodyguard

It is the going we are thrashing out, Michael hanging around attending the Presidential party without so much as a single bodyguard and knowing he is a dead man once the party is over

Creating an alibi? Whom did he have to answer to?

The only issue I see is Bussetta being caught in the act which would no doubt link Michael to Roth's killing
If he was not out of Cuba fast no doubt he would have a lot of explaining to do but money talks especially that $2 million

Again as you posted Batista's resignation probably saved Michael's life but why take this uncharacteristic and unnecessary risk?

Hot off the press!! Bussetta was caught in the act and killed Roth survived Michael escaped

I could easily be wrong, but it seems the best strategy would be to have a plane dispatched from the US with a known pilot who would wait and wait.

I believe “a plane dispatched from the US” undoubtedly would have attracted attention

Roth knew the $2 million never got to the island and then Fredo had brought a bag full of money so “a plane dispatched from the US” would have been flashing neon lights!

Whilst I believe the private plane whether Cuban or American would have waited and waited, standing by for their passengers - the Cuban pilot may not even know who his passenger/s are [believe the plane arranged by the Hotel Concierge] Michael still has to get to the airport

How Michael planned to dodge? give the slip? to the "team of assassins" who would have been “lurking inconspicuously at the Presidential party to make sure Michael didn't run out on them or change his plans” to “carry out their assignment and murder him”

So, brings us back to, why Michael needed
1. to attend the Presidential party
2. an alibi Whom did Michael have to answer to?

Now my sources tell me we can teach old threads new tricks!

No doubt US plane on stand by would have got Roth's sixth sense working overtime

It looks like we have to go back to Godfather school for answers
1. why Michael needed to attend the Presidential party
2. why Michael needed an alibi Whom did Michael have to answer to?
3. How Michael planned to dodge? give the slip? to the "team of assassins" to get to the airport, board and take off

There can be a tendency to impute omniscience to these characters in their cat-and-mouse games. Havana was a big city, a tourist city, a party city. People had been shuttling to Miami by air for probably forty years. I don't think anyone could keep track of every plane amongst so much traffic.

True Pete I reckon keeping with the sixth sense trend Roth could! Good point

Whichever plane, he still has to get to the airport

He saw Military marching in still hanging around No escape until Batista resignation

It was suspenseful, Michael watching like a hawk, the Military Police marching in wondering whether they were his Military 'protection'!

As regards Michael “still hanging around” even after Michael saw the Military Police, they were marching away from Michael So, Michael must have twigged something more serious than his murder assignment was happening

My queries please and somewhat confusing take!

• Military Police informed Batista of his untenable position due to the rebels taking over
• Whilst no one could have known of Roth's stroke, the Military went to Roth's hotel to check / inform Roth, Batista's old friend and associate of Batista's resignation due to Roth's no show at the New Year reception
• Military must have found out Roth was in the hospital and took care of Batista's old friend and associate Roth
• No brainer the Military or plain clothes personnel would take Michael away in full view of all the guests
• Fredo broke free of Michael's “You broke my heart” embrace and seemingly walked quickly out of the Palace
• Michael made his smart lone exit down the Presidential Palace steps
• The assassins after “Batista resigned were more worried about saving their own asses than about nailing Michael's” So under the same circumstances, why would the Military Police worry about Roth?

Historically, Batista's assassinations and other dirty deeds were done not by the military but by his Bureau for the Repression of Communist Activities (BRAC), which was funded by the CIA. They were, technically, civilians. I'm guessing that they were depicted in Roth's hotel room, just after Buscetta strangled Johnny Ola--"Relax, Senor. Roth, we are taking you to the hospital." That scene was before Batista announced his resignation, so they were still "on the job," not covering their asses. The uniformed military people who barged into Roth's hospital room and killed Buscetta were portrayed that way by FFC, I think, for effect: to demonstrate that Roth had clout with the Cuban government--in other words, "directoral license." This was a rare example of where FFC's fanatical attention to detail slipped up: The officer who killed Buscetta used a revolver; but since the US armed Batista's forces, his standard sidearm (handgun) would have been an auto
loader--a Colt Model 1911, same sidearm used by US military at that time.

Thanks Turnbull I appreciate your additional explanations and interesting tidbits as it undoubtedly enriches our enjoyment of the movies

Why would “Batista's buttons! (BRAC) be depicted in Roth's hotel room before Batista announced his resignation” when it was business as usual and all their plans arranged by Roth including Michael's murder, were in place

“Rare example of FFC's fanatical attention to detail slip up:" - Coppola should have known, Turnbull, this wouldn't escape your eye!
[(BRAC) in civilian clothes, may not have had the same dramatics]

?? I'll guess that Batista had his "old friend from Florida, Senor Hyman Roth," watched constantly by BRAC, and maybe the military, to protect him since Roth was paying him for the hit on Michael. Perhaps the Dr. who examined Roth was connected to the government and told BRAC that Roth was in a bad way. That might explain why those plainclothes guys were moving him to the hospital, and why that military detachment charged into his hospital room, probably after Johnny Ola's murdered body was discovered.

I thought Paramedics [missed the plain clothes!] were moving Roth to the hospital after Roth's wife, Marcia presumably called for assistance

You are right Turnbull All those little gifts to the President came in handy! indeed
Roth's sequence of events – stroke “plain clothes guys moving him to the hospital, military detachment charging into his hospital room” - were constant watching / protection by Batista's BRAC and Military

Tom told Michael at the Desert Inn -
“Roth got out on a private boat, he's in a hospital in Miami He had a stroke but he recovered okay”
“I think Fredo got out He must be somewhere in New York”

What would be our ongoing re-vamp, re-visit 'revolving door'! [what's new?!] take as to how Roth and Fredo - after Batista resigning, leaving the city immediately and being caught up in the midst of the rebel uprising - got out of Havana?
1. Roth “after having a stroke and nearly being killed by Buscetta”
2. Fredo alone “walking in a daze”

Roth wife arranged the private boat Fredo was -- well -- alone in rebel uprising only Coppola know

Roth's wife could have arranged the private boat through the hotel concierge if it was still functioning or Batista's people if they have not deserted them after his resignation

How did Fredo get out? How could anyone find him in all that chaos

What was Rocco doing at the Desert Inn? Why did Michael stop over there Tom and Neri were there too

I discussed those points in this thread:
http://www.gangsterbb.net/threads/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=472494&Searchpage=1&Main=16944&Words=%2BFredoRoth+%2Bconspiracy&Search=true#Post472494


A guess is: directorial considerations. Logically, Michael would have met all three at his home in Tahoe. But, FFC was planning to make Michael's return to Tahoe into that deeply melancholy scene we saw (his gift to Anthony of the little car abandoned in snow, Kay working at her sewing machine without looking up when he came in, asking Mama if he could lose his family), so FFC "took care of business" by having him meet the Big Three in Vegas before returning home.

Also TB, holding the miscarriage et al discussion at Tahoe would have been somewhat awkward. As you point out, FFC wanted the drama of his and Tom's conversation which would have been less so at the compound.

No doubt directorial considerations FFC taking care of business and our ongoing re-vamp, re-visit 'revolving door'!

No doubt he was in deeper with Roth than he let on We thought before, he came with Roth in their private boat I reckon that theory is now up for exploring other options

So how did he get out?
1. If he did come with them how did they find him in all that chaos?
2. Who would know their relationship Roth in a coma was in no position to tell anyone anything
3. Why would they even bother looking for him, needle in a haystack scenario, their priority would have been sick Roth and getting out

I guess one possibility would be that he glommed onto Geary or some other big shot they spent the night with. They wouldn't know about a split between the brothers, so would see helping Fredo as a favor to Michael.

Geary and the other big shots were rushing to the US Embassy, trying to pass through the gate, everyone for himself

Fredo had already left before Batista's resignation How can the scared, stumbling and walking in a daze Fredo get to the US Embassy even if he thought of it

Roth's plan would have been to stay on in Havana after Michael's assassination
So there would have been no private boat already waiting like Michael's private plane because Roth never thought “the rebels could win”

I doubt Fredo was even a consideration even if Fredo and Roth's alliance was known, “their priority sick Roth and getting out" of Havana

Michael's return from sunny Havana to snowy Tahoe, no wife no children greeting him was a telling scene However....

• Kids do get tired of their toys so the little car [Michael's Christmas 'gift'!] was perhaps not quite abandoned It was perhaps too big to drive around indoors so left out for Anthony to play later
• Kay knew Michael was back [in Vegas] but may not have known Michael was actually home in Tahoe, not heard him with the whirring of the sewing machine

Whilst I acknowledge the drama factor including “Was it a boy?” what was awkward for me, was Tom telling Michael such a personal, distressing, private matter of Kay having had a 'miscarriage' and losing the baby

Anyhow the sequence of events certainly put us in a melancholy mood! that -

• Tom was telling Michael, the husband, Kay, his wife has had a 'miscarriage' instead of Kay telling Michael, herself
• Michael's first question to Tom at the Desert Inn was “Kay know I am back?” but then Michael doesn't even greet Kay when Michael sees Kay at home in Tahoe knowing Kay has had a 'miscarriage'
• Michael instead of comforting and talking to his wife, Kay [not dissimilar to Michael's talk! at Hotel Washington] who has just had a 'miscarriage' walks through heavy snow “to ask Mama if he could lose his family”
• If Michael had talked to Kay instead of Mama or both Kay and Mama, perhaps their marriage might, just might...could have stood a chance of being saved

“The Big Three in Vegas” - Who was minding Michael's wife and his children, the future of the family, at Tahoe
No wonder Kay was able to have the abortion!

Tom telling Michael was awkward

He trudged through heavy snow to talk his Mama blind to his wife

The Big three didn't return to Tahoe with Michael He was the only one in the big car

Straight from car nut since he was a little kid Turnbull, that's because it is one of the rarest cars ever!