If Michael had been killed...

Suppose Michael had been killed in the Tahoe attack. How do you think that would have played out?

I think that, in the short term, Roth would have installed a puppet regime of Italians. Namely Johnny Ola and the Rosatos, with the possibility of Fredo holding a cosmetic position to appease the Corleone loyalists in the street. Of course they would have had to kill Al, and probably Rocco, immediately.

Long term, it's hard to say.

In this what if situation there could be numerous different scenarios.

Perhapes Al Neri and Rocco retaliated, killing Ola and the Rosatos. Pentangeli would probably back them up with more muscle so their side would be superior. Roth would be forced to make a deal with them.

Or, from the perspective that Michael's men where all business men, Rocco and Neri would have sought to make a new deal with Roth, cutting of their support to Pentangeli who would then probably have been outmanoeuvred by Ola and the Rosatos. The other families in New York would most likely have chosen Roth's side as part of their revenge. The Corleone family would have been in the same shape as they were during the Sollozzo crisis, only this time with lesser men in charge.

Or Roth could have manipulated Neri and Rocco so they would go against eachother. Or maybe the subborn Pentangeli would have cut of his support to them because he 'would not have to answer to higher authority anymore'.

In any scenario, there would have been chaos for the Corleone family.

Would the Italians stood by quietly while a non-Italian (Roth) whacked the head of the most powerful crime family?

I cannot see Rocco, but especially Neri, making a deal with Roth. As the novel described, Neri was Michael's Luca Brasi. I think that Neri had that kind of loyalty to Michael.

I believe that the Italians would have put aside their differences and killed Roth, then settled the issue of dividing Michael's power afterward.

Keep in mind that the assassination attempt was set up to frame Frank Pentangeli. There's no reason to believe that Neri, Rocco, etc. would ever have linked Roth to it. And Roth would have been smart enough to remain safely in the background while the dust settled.

I would imagine that Roth's hope was that Pentangeli would be blamed and eliminated. That would give the Rosato Brothers the opening to take over NY operations.

As for Nevada, it depends on the reactions of Neri, Rocco, and Tom. Roth would probably have Ola get a feel for how they were leaning under the guise of continuing the business they were already working on. We are led to believe that they probably would have fallen in line because they are "businessmen." If they didn't, I think Roth would have worked behind the scenes to squeeze their casino business, weakening Nevada while the Rosatos got strong enough in NY to control the entire Family.

Good point.



Don't forget that there would also be Willie Cicci or someone else who might have taken over from Pentangeli. We don't know how much influence the Rosatos had and if they would have been in a position to take over at all. But that wouldn't have been Roth's problem anymore..

It would depend on whether Tom Hagen and Neri would be able to hold things together. I am ssuming Fredo was in on the hit (as I have for some time now) and Fredo being the bonehead he is, would have tried to move in too quickly to "take over," and if Hagen and/or Neri were astute enought they would see Roth was behind.

Tom probably had an idea about what Michael was doing in Cuba, and if he could control Neri and convince him it was Roth, then Hagen, Neri and Rocco could use Pentangeli in NY to do what Pentangeli wanted "hit 'em while we still have the muscle."

It would be an uphill battle though, because with Michael dead the Corleones could not move in on Klingman because Geary was in the way. If things fell apart, I'd guess Roth would kill Rocco, Neri, Hagen, and eventually Fredo and take it all over.

The Commission would have engaged in its usual machinations and factions within it would have jockeyed to name a new Don they favored. Roth might have been influential in some way, but not determinant. I don't think Rocco or Neri would have had enough gravitas with the Commission to be selected.

I don't think that Rocco or Neri would have been smart enough to figure out that Roth was behind it. Tom MIGHT have been but why should he stick his neck out? His patron was gone and he wouldn't want to be seen as a threat by either of Michael's attack dogs. he certainly couldn't give them orders at this point.

I think Rocco and Neri would have blamed Pentangeli and threatened some sort of war. The Corleones tear themselves apart. Roth picks up the pieces in Nevada and overseas while the Rosatos get NY-if they're strong enough.

The character I love most in the movies is Tom Hagen and I think everything depends on him in this scenario.

Can he convince Neri/Rocco who was truly behind the hit? Main problem for that was the fact that Hagen wasn't the true consiglieri anymore. Or did Michael deliberately take Hagen out of the equasion just to make sure he can handle the family (because he can figure out what truly happenend on who's orders) if he's gone (read: dead) for some reason.

I believe Hagen was capable of doing that. With his dimplomacy skills he is able to talk to Neri and Rocco. And when they are on his site they can also use Pentangeli and a war will be on. After a while things settle down and there will be some kind of truce.

Going way out on a limb here........maybe Connie comes to her senses and becomes the strong person she became at the end of II and throughout III and helps Tom, Neri and ROccco to hold it together.

"Difficult, not impossible"

Roth’s primary need was to stop Michael’s constant encroachments on Roth’s gaming empire. But he needed a master plan to make sure he survived and prospered. I believe he constructed a series of win/wins surrounding the hit, and also faced some serious risks:

First, New York. Pentangeli was a source of monetary tribute for Michael, and his muscle was deterrent against mobsters trying to threaten Michael’s Nevada holdings. A successful hit would have made Pentangeli the patsy. The Rosatos would move against him immediately, ostensibly “revenging” the assassination of the guy who backed them. Pentangeli would either be on the run, or he’d have to fight a war that would likely divide his family. If the Rosatos won, Roth would have an ally in NY. If it came to a long, bloody war, NY would be neutralized as far as Roth was concerned. Win/win. BUT: What if Pentangeli won? He wae the only person who knew, for certain, that Roth ordered the hit. Once he felt secure, Roth would be a dead man.

Second, Nevada. Fredo would be the nominal heir, and Tom probably would be loyal to him. Tom had no ties to Rocco (Clemenza’s man) or Neri (Michael’s man), and he probably resented them because Michael had reduced him to “our lawyer.” But, would Rocco and Neri accept Fredo as their boss, and Tom as their consigliere? If so, Fredo’s coglioni were in Roth’s pocket forever because of his complicity in the Tahoe assassination. At minimum, he’d stop the Corleones’ encroachment on Roth’s gaming empire. And, with Michael gone, Klingman (presumably Roth’s ally) would hold onto his piece of the Tropigala. Sooner rather than later, Fredo would run the whole Corleone enterprise into the ground. I

If Rocco and Neri didn’t accept Fredo, he (and probably Tom) would be dead. But that would put the Corleones’ gaming licenses in jeopardy. Roth would move to have the Gaming Commission revoke the licenses because no one with the name “Corleone” was left to qualify for ownership. Guess who would get the licenses after they were revoked? Win/win.

BUT: Rocco and Neri were privy to the Havana deal, and I’m guessing that Michael, because he included them in his negotiations with Ola, promised them a piece of the action. What if they decided that they wanted to claim the Havana properties Roth was negotiating to give Michael?

Just some thoughts…

Great points, TB.

I don't think Roth had any interest in running the Corleone Family, either personally or through proxies. He just wanted to stop the attacks on his properties.

I've often wondered what his endgame was regarding Fredo - what he intended to give him after the hit and whether he felt that the underbosses would ever accept him in a prominent role. As TB shows, it didn't really matter - Roth would benefit either way.

Other than Roth, I wonder what other criminal entities threatened the Corleones in that era. Was anyone else in a position to benefit from chaos in the Corleone Family. If not, things would be perfect for Roth.

If so, the chaos caused by the Corleone succession might have been dangerous for Roth, either because a Family outside his influence may have prospered or the outside muscle he relied upon might have been too preoccupied by the war to protect Roth's interests.

I don't know. As I posted above, with noone within the Corleone family strong enough to assert satisfactory leadership, I just don't see how the Commission could have avoided stepping in and namimng a successor. I especially see it doing that given that an outsider was responsible for the death of one of their own.

Personally I think that Roth had no intentions of leaving Fredo alive if the Michael hit had been successful. Obviously Fredo was not bright enough to realize that a hit was coming on Michael. Had Michael been killed I think Roth would have knocked off Fredo knowing his anger would have prevented any real loyalty to Roth.

Another possible Roth fallback: He could have had Questadt, "who belongs to Roth," subpoena Fredo or whomever was the Corleone successor to testify before the Senate subcommittee (the hearings were scheduled and would have been held with or without Michael). Fredo or whomever would have to plead the Fifth, which would destroy any "legitimacy" and invite the Gaming Commission to revoke their licenses.

LOL you are assuming Fredo would have taken Tom's advice and pled the fifth. On the other hand he was always kept pretty much in the dark, and probably knew more about Roth than Michael.
Then again because Fredo was so smaht he would probably have testified full bore thinking he could outwit Questadt.

The situations for Michael and Fredo were not analagous, so I'm not convinced that this was a viable option for Roth. Fredo really didn't know much about the Family business. Even as Don, it is possible that someone else would have handled the details.

The Senate committee had the goods on Michael, not Fredo. Michael engineered the killings of the heads of the Five Families, not Fredo. Pentangeli had been ordered to kill by Michael, not Fredo.

Without such compelling testimony, it's questionable whether the Seante committee would have subpeonaed Fredo, regardless of what Questedt may have wanted. And Fredo would have had much less reason to take the Fifth.

Also, the knife cuts both ways. Fredo could testify about Roth and Ola and who knows where that would lead.

Come to think of it all Fredo knew about Roth and Ola was that Roth was straight laced, Ola knew Havana like the back of his hand, and that Ola told him Michael was being tough on "the negotiations" and thee would be something in it fo him if he helped.