What if Fredo were competent?

(Per Book)The Don liked to say that each man has but one destiny.
But what if he were wrong. What would have changed in the Family if Fredo had been able to successfully defend his father at the fruit stand?

What if instead of mishandling his gun and watching his father get shot, Fredo had been able to shoot or kill at least one of the gunmen and prevent his father from being seriously wounded?

If the Don were still in control, does Sonny go on his roaring rampage of revenge?
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/RoaringRampageOfRevenge

Does the war among the Families still happen?
Does Fredo start to get more respect from everyone?
If Fredo is still around and doing well there's no reason to send him out west..

Vito's tome sounds alot like predestination which I guess it is. But it's actually non-sensical because who knows what the destination is meant to be if meant at all.

Yes, if Fredo had been more competent, he could have upset Sollozzo's and Barzini's applecart. Vito wopuld have been alerted and Sollozzo would have been out of th epicture since Barzini would have considered him a liabilityat that point since the Corleones were still at their peak. More importantly, Vito would have remained in control and Sonny not. Fredo would have indeed earned respect for his defense of his father and playeda larger role i the family. Thus, Puzo would have had to rewrite his plot and FFC would not have produced a sequel.

No, because Vito would still be in charge. Vito would want to settle scores, but not via an all-out war.

Probably not. But it's a thoughtful question, Lilo. If Vito survived, it'd still leave the big picture unresolved: can one Don block the drugs business for all the Dons? I envision that, after the attack failed, Sol would go underground and Tatt would run to Barzini in panic. Barzini would call for a sit-down with Vito and propose a "political" solution: Sol got "impatient" with Vito and acted "on his own." Tatt, because he vouched for Sol, owes Vito an indemnity--he has to whack Sol and perhaps pay cash to the Corleones or give them some of his non-prostitution business.
BUT: Barz also would tell Vito that there's so much money in drugs that nothing will stop it--"just look how this nobody, Sollozzo, took it on his own to try to kill you, and he almost succeeded. There's going to be nothing but trouble ahead unless you agree to let us draw the water from the well..." Tom would support that view because that's what he believed from the beginning. I'm guessing that Vito, mindful of the disaster that would have befallen his family if he'd been killed, would reconsider his opposition to drugs.

Definitely--starting with his father.

Maybe. Vito evidently had designs on Nevada, as attest his giving Moe Green money to finish his hotel. He probably didn't send Fredo out west because had little confidence in him. If Fredo had saved his life, perhaps Vito would have had more confidence in Fredo, and given him a "real" job to explore out west. Maybe he would have proven himself (to Vito) tough enough to stand up to Moe.

I agree with what you both said. Another wrinkle could be that with the Don in charge , Sonny doesn't get whacked eventually, which means that Michael is still free to pursue his non-criminal dreams.

Or even if Michael does take over later somehow, Fredo has more self-confidence/self-esteem as a result of his actions and is not jealous of Michael or the weak link among the brothers.

Or maybe it's even Fredo, not Sonny, who goes ballistic and starts hunting down Sollozzo and his crew. It would have been an interesting spin if it were Fredo who was really the Crouching Moron Hidden Badass

Just because Fredo botched the defense of his father, it would have taken quite a bit of marksmanship and luck to kill or wouund two assassins who were already running at Vito with guns drawn. Assuming Fredo pulled it off, or even if the Don wound up slightly wounded, there's no doubt he would have gained respect, but I think the Don already knew that Fredo was not the sharpest knife in the drawer. At the end of his life when he tells Michael that he knew Santino would have to go through "this" and that Fredo was "well......" Vito kept Fredo close to him as a factotem and body guard, sort of, because he was his son and he wanted to make him feel important even though he had absolutely no say in how the family business was run. Even when he was in the room for important meetings (i.e. with Sol) he kept his mouth shut.

Hey come to think of it keeping quiet was smarter than what Sonny did at that meeting. Maybe he was smaht.

Somewhere in GF2 Michael mentions "Fredo's men". I think it was the only hint that Fredo actually had a crew. Seems kind of far-fetched, given Fredo's portrayal.

To keep him happy, Michael may have given Fredo a token "crew," but instead of being killers or racketeers, they were probably helping him with his "Mickey Mouse nightclub" activities. The guy who ran the brothel where Neri murdered the hooker pmost likely was one of them.

If Fredo was competent, then that could change the whole complexion of things. Even if Vito still was shot, Sonny would have had Fredo as one of his resources and who can say how that might have affected the way Sollozzo acted. Sonny being hot for his deal alerted Sollozzo because he considered both Fredo and Michael non-factors. He gets rid of Vito and he only has Sonny to deal with. Fredo being competent changes the landscape.

Good point, Olivant. As you know, in the novel Sol tells Tom that he specifically ordered his men not to harm Fredo--"Fredo is alive because of me." Tells me he had discounted Fredo even before the bullets started flying. Fredo acting competently would have thrown Sol off.

Excellent point olivant.

I don't know, this what-if-question is a little irritating. It's like asking "What if Vito was incompetent?"

Vito: C'mon, Fredo, it's christmas eve, tell Paulie to drive me to Tat's Micky Mouse Club in the Bronx. Let's have some fun.
Fredo: Look, Pop, Paulie called in sick this morning. I don't trust Tattaglia. I smell a rat.
Vito: I teach you how to do the sandwich...
Fredo: Stop it, Pop, please, let's ... (He's being interrupted by two gunmen who seem to appear out of nowhere, he pulls the gun, shoots them down, looks at his hands, they don't tremble.) Let's buy some oranges, I'll drive you home. And tomorrow I'll take care of Paulie.

The only reason Fredo is there driving his father because he is not compotent. If Fredo had a more important position in the family, I would doubt that they would both (he and Don Vito) would be left out in the open.

The Turk not killing Fredo served several purposes. Yes, it is probable that Solozzo discounted Fredo as a factor, but he also did not want to "drive" the Corleones "over the top," however the situation might have been different if Fredo wasn't the one driving the car.

This could go on and on....What if Michael wasn't a ruthles bastard...

Tom - Roth was turned away by Israel. He's gonna try Panama next.
Mike - Geeze Louise, Tom ya think they'll let him in?
Tom - Not Sure Mikey, but something's been weighing on me. NEri already knows this, but I turned down a job offer at a hotel chain. I was thnking of moving my wife and mistress there.
Mike - Tom, what you do is your own busines, but really if you'd like to stay here that would be really swell.
Tom- Thanks Mike. What do we do about Fredo and Pentangeli?
Mike - Fredo is so weak and helples. Neri, just take him fishing when he wants to go. I'm not worried about him anymore. And poor Frankie... fooled like that into squealing. Pooe bastard. Tom, at least fly to that prison and give him a god Cuban cigar and let him know I will personally take care of his family.
Tom - Once Panama turns Roth down he'll go to Miami.
Michael - I want that plane met.
Tom - There will be all kinds of security.
Michael - Rocco?
Rocco - Difficult, but not impossible.
Michael. Forget it, Rocco. You are too valuable to me. Roth' an old man. He can't last much longer, just let it go.

...and on into III:

CONNIE: You remember Vincent Mancini--Sonny's boy?
MICHAEL: Vincent! How great to see you! Take my daughter...please!

And further:

Harrison - Now we had a deal. This was just supposed to be a
formality!
Gilday - Please, gentlemen remember you're in the Vatican!
Michael - The archbishop is right. The deal had to be ratified by the pope, and now he's dying. Come on, Harrison, lets go find Andrew Hagen, go out for some pasta and wine and forget this Immobilire thing...what the hell...you win some you lose some.

Now, that would be something: Michael Corlone saying, "You win some, you lose some."

That's Michael on Prozac.

Other examples:

"You want to leave me and take the kids to New Hampshire? Fine. How much child support and alimony do you want?"
___________________
"Sollozo has to kill pop. That's the key for him. They want a meeting. It'll be me, Sollozo and McCluskey. Tell them I want it in a bar or a restaurant where I'll feel comfortable. I can't have a weapon on me then because they'll frisk me. But if I can find a way to excuse myself from the table, then Clemenza, or Tessio, or even you Sonny can run in and kill them both. After all I am not going to be in the family business."
_______________
Michael - That's why you slap my brother around?
Green- I got a busines to run. I had to straighten Freddie out.
Michael - You straightened my brother out?
Green - He was banging cocktail waitresses two at a time!
Michael - Oh.... well that's different. Fredo you shouldn't have done a thing like that. You know Pop disapproves.

_______________
Vito - I never wanted this for you. I knew Santino would have to do this, and Fredo, well he was .... but I wanted something different for you. Senator Corleone, Gvernor Corleone...something...

Michael - Pop thats what I was always trying to tell you when you kept after me to go into the family business. No way I can do politics with this family name, but Kay and I are thinking of moving to Boston and start up some kind of think tank for social justice. Can you spare me a few million?

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Michael - Is there anything else you can tell me about this committee?
Fredo - Questadt...the lawyer... he belongs to Roth.
Michael - Thanks Fredo, you've been a big help. Stick around.

_____________

Michael - What are you doing with my daughter?
Vincent - What do you think?
Michael - I know, I know... just be careful.