If Tessio had succeeded

What if Tessio had succeeded in his plot to whack Michael? What do you think would have happened to the rest of the Corleone family and crew?

The easy answer is that the Corleone family would break apart, and Clemenza would also be whacked and his operation taken over by Tessio who would pay money to Barzini.

But....here's a fun possibility...

With Michael dead, the assumption would be that the Corleones were extremely weak. In truth they had built up significant strength with the secret Neri regime, about which Tom was aware. Tom also knew that there was somthing afoot after Vito died, because he knew someone would "come at" Michael
he just didn't know who.

Assuming Clemenza could take refuge in the Corleone compound, and further assuming that Hagen, who idolized Michael took a meeting with Neri who encouraged a bold move, it is possible that the Neri and Clemenza regimes could have done exactly what Michael did and knock off Moe Green and the heads of the other families.

IMHO Barzini would have had Tessio wacked the minute Michael died. After all Tessio was not a man of honor, he was a traitor. If he could betray the Corleones, he could betray BArzini. He would have no use for him, and this would have allowed some of Tessio's muscle to come into the Corleone fold and add o their strength.

This would set up a power struggle among Hagen, Neri and Fredo, but I think Hagen would have been able to finesse Fredo by telling him he was his "older brother," and by making him think he was a "co-Don." Neri with his fierce loyalty to the Corleone family and to the memories of Vito and Michael would have been convinced by Tom that with anyone but Tom at the head of the family, the Corleones would lose their political and judicial contacts, and thus Neri would continue in a top role as the major capo regime.

I think that if Tessio had succeeded in setting up Michael to be killed, Barzini would have made sure that Clemenza, Neri and Rocco would have also been taken out at the same time.

Most likely, to play it safe, Fredo would have been taken out by Moe Green in Las Vegas because he had already "tocked to Barzini."

And while Barzini probably promised Tessio that he would make him run what was left of the Corleone business, I really believe that Barzini would have had Tessio killed too. After all how could he have trusted someone who turned traitor on a family that he had been a part of for so long? You can never trust someone who is willing to turn traitor...even if, for that moment, they are on your side. Once a traitor always a traitor. So Tessio would have been a goner too. It would have been the smart move by Barzini to get rid of him in the end.

Thank you, DT. One of the finest "What-if"-scenarios ever

Well, there's enough real life precedent. When Maranzano and Anastasia and Castellano were murdered, what happened to the players in their families?

In the novel, Puzo described Barzini as the most "modern" Don, younger, colder, contemptuous of the "Moustache Petes." He also said that Barzini's ambition was to supplant Vito as the top Don, not necessarily to take over Vito's family. I infer that Barzini would want to keep killing to a minimum. So:
--Clemenza would have to go. He expected to be head of his own family, and would never settle to be subordinate to Tessio or Barzini. He'd be a mortal danger to both.
--Neri and Rocco were joined at the hip to Michael and Clemenza. They'd have to be killed at the same time.
--I think Barzini would want Tom to work for him. He'd need to continue the Corleone police/political contacts to protect his drugs business, and Tom would be the only remaining family member who could deliver them. Barzini might conclude that since Tom wasn't Italian and was a lawyer by training, he'd put pragmatism over loyalty. He'd probably "make him an offer he can't refuse." Tom would recognize that if he turned it down, he'd be dead. I think he'd take it--and work 24x7 to keep himself as the political go-between because once Barzini got the judges and the politicos wired to him, Tom would be superfluous--dead.
--I think Barzini would figure Fredo wasn't worth killing. His ally Moe Green had Fredo under control and could whack him at any time. Besides, Fredo had already shown signs of drifting loyalty. He was harmless, and might have been marginally useful.
--Unlike others, I think Barzini would have let Tessio live. Tessio would now become Barzini's protege, and it would be easier for Tess to run the Corleone enterprise under Barzini's thumb than for Barzini to do it himself. As Olivant advised, look to other Mob internal upheavals. Vito Genovese got Carlo Gambino to conspire against Albert Anastasia in return for becoming a Don; then Gambino became Genovese's protege and ally on the Commission until Genovese went to prison. Then Gambino got Joe Columbo to betray Joe Magliocco; Columbo become Don of the former Profaci family, and was Gambino's protege and ally on the Commission until he started up the Italian-American Civil Rights League and incurred Gambino's wrath. No large-scale massacres followed either the Maranzano coup or Castellano's murder, either. As Solozzo said, "Blood is a big expense."

TB -

As you can see by my original reply just above yours...we seem to be on the same page as to what probably would have happened had Tessio been successful in having Michael assassinated. The only thing that I disagree with you about is Tessio himself. I really think that eventually Barzini would have had Tessio killed because of the reason that I cited in my original post..., the fear of Tessio turning traitor on him (Barzini) in the same way that he turned on the Corleones.

Barzini would have to go through various people to set up the meeting with Tom. Here's the dialogue.

Barzini - Tom, I apreciate how all this has you feeling, but you above all people understand that it was only business, not personal.

Tom -(shows reaction other than to look down)

Barzini - My proposal is a simple one. You come to work for me. Deliver as much of the political and judicial protection the Corleones had. There's a million for you to start, and you can bring in anyone you like who you think will facilitate these relationships.

Tom - What makes you think I would ever work for you after you destroyed my family?

Barzini - They weren't your family Tom, and don't tell me that Sonny and Michael didn't remind you of that every chance they got. I saw how Michael moved you out when he took over and only brought you back when he needed you after his father died. What makes you think he would have treated you any better if he was alive today?

Tom - Thank you for the proposition Don Barzini, but my answer is "no."

Barzini - Think about it Consigliere, where are you going to go? What law firm is going to hire a former lawyer for the Corleones? What? You're gonna hang a shingle and write wills for a bunch of married couples the rest of your life? (gestures to an aide at the table, pulls a cigaret from a pack, puts it in his mouth. In what appears to be a single stroke the aide lights the cigaret and hands Barzini a folder) Smoke Tom?

Tom - No I dont...

Barzini - (flipping through the folder) Nice how you slipped Michael in and out of the country without incident, how you arranged for him to be cleared of all those cop killing charges. Really slick job with that movie big shot. I'd guess between that and your dealings with the late Luca Brasi they'd have you on several counts of conspiacy to commit murder, if not an accessory. After that there's bribery, extortion and a list of other things I have right here. Tom not only will you be disbarred, you'll be doing time. As your old mentor might have said "The pezzanovante will make you the scape goat for everything the Corleones ever did."

Tom - What makes you think I can't keep them at bay already? I have enough money to move to a dozen countries that will never extradite me.

Barzini - I didn't want it to come to this, but my family has no regard for the extradition laws. I am asking you to work for me out of my admiration for your talent. Corleone and the rest of those moustache petes time has come and gone, and you know it. But one thing hasn't changed. To refuse a favor will not bring you anything good. So be practical. Take a week to decide.

Tom - All right. I'll consider it.

While I think its a great scene and Michael looks really suprised when Vito tells him "and you'll be assassinated"

Couldnt Michael or Tom or Neri eventually figure this out in time to not have the meeting or something else?

The scene is what it is. The answer to my question BUT could it have been possible that Neri says "smells like a trap" or "why is Tessio setting up meeting" etc etc...

People underestimating people is a major theme in the Trilogy. Barzini underestimated Michael. Michael knew it. That's why Barzini died, instead of Michael.
The reckoning between Michael and Barzini was inevitable. If Michael simply ducked the meeting, he wouldn't have resolved the basic problem: Barzini figuring him for a pushover, and encroaching on his territories. It had to happen.

Hi, just discovered this site the other day...

IMHO, yes, Barzini definitely would have had Tessio killed, but not until after all the other Corleone loose ends were tied up:

- Clemenza, Rocco & Neri would have been killed immediately after Michael, if not at the same time. All way too dangerous to keep around & not particularly valuable;

- Carlo, harmless though he was, would be next in line, quite possibly with Connie. This would most likely be handled by Tessio, who would be next;

- Kay & the kids unlikely to be touched (unless it was decided to kill Michael while he was with them), but probably threatened. Likewise Mama Corleone;

- Barzini would have tried to keep Tom around to keep the Corleone business in as much order as possible while he assimilated it into his own. Just how valuable Tom made himself during this time would have determined whether or not he survived afterwards. Refusal to help, well, that's a no-brainer, pardon the pun;

- in terms of an interesting alternative future storyline, Barzini might have let Fredo live & serve as nominal head of the Corleone Family, simply as a puppet. However, I'd like to think that after years of humiliating servitude to Barzini & the other Families, Fredo would eventually find his strength & wipe them all out, possibly with Tom's help. This would be the one flaw in Barzini's plan, underestimating Fredo's loyalty while overestimating his weakness.

Welcome, JJ!

("What happened to your nose, Gittes? Someone slam a bedroom window on it?")

I doubt they would have killed Connie. I think women were pretty much offf limits.
Carlo may have been given something small in the Barzini organization as a reward for fingering Sonny.