Fredo/Roth conspiracy

An interesting discussion in the “When did Michael decide to kill Fredo” thread has made me believe that Fredo was in with Roth and Ola far more deeply than I’d previously thought:

Probably no more than 48 hours elapsed between Michael’s departure from Cuba and his meeting with Tom, Neri and Rocco in Nevada—Michael’s wearing the same clothes as in Cuba, looks exhausted, asks Neri for a wet towel…As soon as he’s alone with Tom, he asks:

Where's my brother?
TOM: Uh – Roth got out on a private boat, he's in a hospital in Miami. Had a stroke but he recovered okay. Your bodyguard's dead.
MICHAEL: I asked about Fredo.
TOM: Uh -- I think he got out -- he must be somewhere in New York.

--Tom had been in Nevada all the while Michael was in Cuba. How could he have known that Roth had a stroke, had recovered, got out on a private boat, and that Michael’s bodyguard was dead? Roth sure didn’t tell him.

--The last we saw of Roth, he was gravely ill, unconscious, breathing on oxygen—and nearly dead from the bodyguard’s attempt to asphyxiate him. How did Roth get on that private boat so quickly? Not under his own power, surely.

--The last we saw of Fredo, he seemingly was running from Michael, dazed, nearly hit by a car. Michael’d had the foresight to arrange a private plane out of Cuba, but Fredo wasn’t on it. How did dumb, simpleminded Fredo get to New York in that same 48-hour-or-less timeframe?

What this suggests to me is:

1. Fredo told Tom about Roth’s stroke, escape, and the bodyguard.

2. Roth had either arranged the private boat for himself ahead of time, or someone rescued him. It may have been his pals in the Cuban government. Or, it may have been Fredo, via his own contacts in the Cuban government. Either way, Fredo had to have been on that boat with him—that’s how he knew about Roth’s escape and the bodyguard’s death.

3. Since Fredo was included in Roth’s escape plan, he had to have been far more important to Roth than simply as a dupe for the attempted Tahoe massacre.

Put this together with other hints: “Johnny Ola brought me here [to the Superman show] implies that Fredo’d been to Cuba with Ola before. “I’m gonna get me a real drink” may have been Fredo leaving the Presidential Palace to phone his contacts in the Cuban government because the next thing we see is that smart-looking military detachment double-timing down the hospital corridor to rescue Roth. And, in the later boathouse scene, Fredo knows that Pentangeli survived, and that the Senate lawyer, Questadt, belongs to Roth.

All of this suggests that Fredo not only an active part of the plot to murder Michael in Tahoe, he also didn’t expect Michael to get out of Havana alive—and may have tried to prevent Michael’s escape. And, even after Michael got out, he and Roth still may have been conspiring against Michael. Part of that conspiracy may have been Fredo’s failure to tell Michael about Pentangeli and Questadt, when doing so before Michael’s Senate testimony might have gotten him back in Michael’s good graces.

Small wonder Michael killed his own brother.

I reached the same conclusion in that other threat TB, and would add some more observations.

After Fredo arrives with the money, Michael tells Fredo that Roth is going to assassinate him. During that conversation Fredo ruefully says "why didn't we spend time like this before" and "I was so mad at you Mikey." Later that day Roth is far more agitated than he had been. He tells Michael that he is aware that the money reached Cuba. I suspect Fredo, after spending time with Michael contacted Ola or Roth to tell them the money had arrived AND that Michael was on to their assassination plot. Furious, Roth explodes in an uncharacteristic way when Michael pushes him on "Who gave the order" to kill Pentangeli. By this point Roth probably knows his assassination plan isn't going to work, and he may have also known that all the money he was collecting allegedly to pay off Batista may have been destined for his pockets all along. Note how distressed Roth gets when Michael publically suggests the rebels could win. I'm thinking Roth knew the rebels could and even would win, and was planning to pocket the money himself, claiming Batista had taken it. Now, knowing that he didn't have a partner in Michael, he secured his arrangements to leave Cuba.
It is entirely possible that his trip to the hspital was a ruse to save himself from being killed. Remember that Michael's body guard had to settle for killing Ola at the hotel, and had to rearrange his plans to get Roth at the Hospital, where Batista had disatched some troops to guard him, and who arrived in a nick of time, and who probably spirited him away.

Fredo had to have been aware all along that Michael would be assassinated in Cuba, and he was probably aware of where to go if he needed to get off the islad in short order....so yes, I believe Fredo and Roth were on the same boat to Miami.

No question they Roth camp was using Fredo as a mole, and despite Fredo's trepidations at one point ...the telephone scene where he says they lied to him and tells Ola not to call him anymore...he stayed with the Roth people in an effort to rub out Michael.

Assuming all this to be true, once again we need to wag our finger at Tom Hagen and somewhat to Michael who never had a clue this was going on. From the time Fredo called out Michael in front of Moe Green (a staunch ally of Roth, and the person who most likely introduced Fredo to Ola and Roth) somebody should have been watching Fredo. No way should his meeting in Beverly Hills have gone unnoticed.

Very very interesting theory TB!!! It most definitely paints a different picture of the entire Michael / Roth /Fredo scenario.

Now that you point it out, everything that took place did happen very quickly between the time that Michael elft Cuba and meets with Neri, Rocco and Tom.

Fredo must have escaped Cuba with Roth. And it makes total sense that he was with Roth because as you point out, Tom already knew all of the information about Roth having a stroke, recovering and getting out on a private boat.

I can see a telephone conversation between Tom and Fredo going something like this :

----------------------------------------------------


FREDO : Tom, it's Freddie.

TOM : Freddie, are you ok? Where are you? Michael's worried about you. Are you still stuck in Cuba?

FREDO : I'm back in the states. I'm safe.

TOM : How did you get out of there? Michael phoned and said that you did not leave Cuba with him.

FREDO : I --- Uh -- I got out by boat.

TOM : By boat? But how? Michael said ---

FREDO : ---Roth's Boat.

TOM : You got out with Roth's boat? But Roth....

FREDO : ...Roth's still alive. He had a stroke and we got him out on his private boat. He's recovering in a hospital in Miami.

TOM : Where are you Fredo?

FREDO : Tom, I'm afraid, I'm scared. I screwed up. And Michael knows it. That's why I didn't leave with Michael. I didn't know what to do -- and -- uh --- Roth's people got Roth and me out of there.

TOM : Tell me where you are Fredo.

FREDO : All I can tell you is that I'm headed for New York. I have to go. I'll call you soon.

TOM : Fredo, don't hang ......

Dial Tone.

------------------------------------------

TB - You know that I've always been an advocate on here defending Fredo because I felt that he was just stupid, not malicious, and really didn't know. But now that you've brought up some really excellent points and probable scenarios , I'm begining to agree that perhaps Michael wasn't so wrong in having Fredo whacked.

GREAT TOPIC TB! You may have outdone yourself with this one!

I have nothing to add.

Nice dialogue, DC.

Bravo DON T! Both you and TB have placed a totaly new light on the whole Roth / Fredo scenerio.

And if you both do not mind, I'd like to once again add that I believe that the Fredo / Ola relationship goes all the way back to when Fredo was with Moe Green while in Las Vegas.

.....and all this going on behind the scenes. Do you think FCC knew about all of this?!

CARDI : Mention it. Don't insist. Ruddy is a man who would know that without being told.

MARYCAS :You mean FFC.

Moe Green - I took him in because the Corleones bankrlled my casino and the Molinari family on the coast guaranteed his safety.

Roth - BE careful with him Moe. I've heard you have humiliated him pblically by slapping him around.

Green - He was banging cocktail waitresses two at a time.

Roth - Moe, you see he's not that bright. The Corleones are in deep trouble in New York. Santino is dead, and Don Corleone had to concede almost everything to get his youngest son back. The word is he's being groomed to take over, but Vito is kidding himself. Michael's still nothing more than a kid, and we scared the hell out of him in Sicily by taking care of his bride. When the Don dies, there will be nothing for them to build on.

Green - So what are you getting at?

Roth - I want you to cultivate Fredo. He's stupid and he's weak, but he may be of use to us in the future. I'm sending Johnny Ola to Vegas. Make sure you give Freddie some time off and convince him Johnny is there to be shown a good time.

Green - Whatever you say Hyman, but I just don't see him as an asset.

THREE YEARS LATER

Roth - We badly underestimated Michael Corleone. He secretly built an entire regime, wiped out all the heads of the New York families and, as you know he put a bullet through Moe's eye.

Ola - So what's your plan.

Roth - Michael doesn't know that we bankrolled a good portion of Virgil Solllozo's operation and also Barzini's after Sollozo died. That's the reason he never came after us. I've always taken care to send Michael birthday cards, and the like even from the time he was a kid, so I think he kind of looks up to me as a father figure.

Ola - What do you have in mind?

Roth - What's your relationship with Freddie?

Ola - Its solid. We've gone to Havana a few times on our own and also on some of the trips you made. I've taken him to that damn spuerman show 10 times. I swear to god he likes that guy more than the hookers.

Roth - You think maybe he's ...

Ola - Not that I've seen, but who knows.

Roth - Well, it doesnt matter. Here's what I want you to do.
Fly out to the coast and set something up with Freddie in Beverly Hills, or someplace away from Vegas or Tahoe. Tell him that Mike and I have something going on but that he's being tough on the negotiations. Be vague.

Ola - No problem, curiosity isn't Freddie's stong suit.

(both men laugh briefly)

Roth - Tell him it is very important that Freddie keeps your relationship secret from Michael. Tell him you'll be in Tahoe at the kid's Communion, and to make himself scarce. Tell him you need a favor from him, and that if he does it there is something big in it for him. Tell him you can't say what it is right now, but that you'll get word to him.

FFC: Ruddy, I want you to go to TheGodfathertrilogy.net, make them think you're not too sure about our plots...find out what they got under their keyboards...

So, why would Tom say that he thought Fredo got out of Cuba and must be in NY? That all sounds tentative to me unless Tom was intentionally being tentative with Mike.

I've always felt that Tom WAS being tentative with Mike.

Of course he was being tentative. He didn't want Mike to know he'd had contact with Fredo.

Like DC, I've always been inclined to give Fredo the benefit of the doubt, and I remain unconvinced that Fredo had as active a role as is theorized above.

Without going into a point-by-point, one main objection is the issue of the $2M. I think we all agree that Roth's motivation in keeping Mike alive was to get his hands on it. But, if you believe that Fredo was an active participant in the entire plot, then Roth, in effect, already had his hands on it.

Fredo surely would have told Roth that he was coming with the $2M. In fact, he probably did, as Roth's "sixth sense" told him Fredo and the money had arrived.

If Fredo was truly in deep with Roth, Roth would have killed Michael as soon as Fredo had the money. There's no way Fredo would have given up possession of it to Michael.

As to their escapes, there were any number of ways that Fredo and Roth could have gotten off the island; both were clearly well-connected in Havana.

As to Tom's admittedly strange wealth of information, I'd chalk that up to directoral license. The movie was long enough without scenes of them investigating Roth and Fredo's whereabouts.

I have to disagree LW with some of the points you raise. First of all, from Roth's perspective it is not clear when he knows for sure that Michael Corleone is on to him. The whole subtext of the Michael-Roth relationship is the two men circling each other, each outwardly flattering the other but inwardly suspecting the other of treachery.

As far as Roth Killing Michael as soon as Fredo had the money, I think he had to go through the charade of Fredo bringing it to Cuba and having Michael giving it to him. Having missed his chance to kill Michael in Tahoe, Roth had to wait and see if Michael would personally hand him the money or ultimately bail out, as he eventually did. Roth's plan was to have Michael killed by Batissta's military after the New Year's party, and at that point the money would either be in his hands or in Fredo's after Michael's death. Fredo would never openly defy Michael by giving the money to Roth while Michael was still alive. At the heart of Fredo's treachery, at that point in the story, was his keeping it from Michael, not putting it on display.

As I said earlier, I think Roth's going to the hospital was a ruse to protect himself, because after the scene where they confront one another about Pentangeli and Moe Green, Roth has a pretty good idea that Michael knows he tried to kill him, and that Michael is about to try to take Roth out himself.

Finally I don't know that Fredo was all that well connected in Havana. He does say it is "his kind of town," but in the Superman scene he implies that Johnny Ola was the one who knew the town like the back of his hand, and not himself. Besides, how well connected in Havana could a guy who didn't know how to say "Banana Daquari" be?

Yes!
Roth had no organization of his own, other than Johnny Ola. Even though he had Fredo in his pocket, he had to hide his involvement in Michael's death. He had to protect himself from possible retaliation by Neri, Rocco, Tom or others loyal to Michael--or to others who'd want to grab Michael's empire and eliminate him from contention.

The birthday party scene was an attempt to provide him with an alibi: "What? Me kill Michael? Why, I loved the kid like he was my own son. I was preparing to hand over my whole Havana gaming empire to him--just ask any of those thugs who were at my birthday party!" The assassination plan was a clever ploy: Michael'd be driven to his hotel in a military car. On the way, the car would be attacked by agents of SIM (Batista's secret police) with military weapons, making it look like an ambush by Castro's guerillas. "Poor Mike, he got caught in the crossfire..."

So, it was essential for Michael to have turned over the $2 million personally to Roth--it would be one more very important proof that their "deal" was still valid. Having Fredo turn over the money, and then killing Michael, would have tipped Roth's hand. It also would have tipped Fredo's hand in the plot--and he needed protection against retaliation, too.

TB you bring up a provocative point in saying that Roth had no organization. Assuming that is the case, then it is likely that Roth contracted with the Rosato Brothers to execute the hit on Michael, and that the assassins got on to the estate either as party crashers or with Johnny. This is likely because the Corleone people assume the contractors were "hired out of New York." It is conceivable that Fredo had a role in hiding,and maybe even killing the assassins. In the movie there is a brief scene of Deanna shrieking that there are two of them "lying dead outside my window." This would indicate that the shooters were told to go to the cabin or whatever it was in which Fredo was staying to receive further orders, when in fact the plan was to keep them quiet forever by killing them.

Additionally, Fredo knew that Frank Pentangeli had come all the way to Tahoe to talk to Mike about Clemenza's demise, which Willie Cicci was quick to say "was no heart attack." Fredo would have passed the information to Roth that Pentangeli thought the Rosatos were somehow responsible for Clemenza's death, and that he had gone out of his way to appeal to Michael to allow him to keep the territories Clemenza had promised them. Roth would not have known the outcome of the discussion, but when Michael came to visit him and tell him Pentangeli had orchestrated the hit, Roth has a virtual green light to take Pentageli out. At that point Roth thought he was in the cat bird seat because he had heard from both Corleone brothers that there wasw a rift between Michael and Pentangeli.

Roth probably had been invited to Anthony's party. He begged off, citing ill health. But he knew that Pentangeli would be there, contentious over Michael's support of the Rosato brothers. Thus Frankie would have a perfect motivation to whack Michael, and would make the perfect patsy if the murder had succeeded.
So, what information did Fredo give Ola and Roth? And why did he protest, on the phone, "You guys lied to me"? A guess is that he confirmed that Frankie was invited, and planned to be there. Another (speculated by others on this board) is that he gave Ola the layout of the grounds and the location of Michael's bedroom window, and opened the drapes.

What was the "lie"? That's a toughie. Some here have speculated that Ola told Fredo that Michael might merely be kidnapped and held hostage until he agreed to Roth's (unspecified) demands. That idea gets reinforcement when Fredo said, "I swear to God, Mike, I didn't know it was gonna be a hit." It's credible that Fredo's stupidity, coupled with his resentment of Michael, would make him fall for that absurd idea.

Another possibility: Fredo was told that Michael and Frankie would be whacked, and Frankie's body would be placed in such a way to look as if he'd killed Michael and had been killed in return (perhaps by those two gunmen out of NY who'd been found later). Then Fredo would take over as Don. Thus, the "lie" was that Frankie had been permitted to leave the compound before the attempt on Michael's life, that Michael survived--and that Fredo wasn't the Instant Don.

Of course Roth had intended for Michael to be killed. He didn't have to have Frankie killed at the same time, because suspicion would fall on Frankie no matter where he was. And, had Michael been killed, Roth would have little more use for Fredo. If Fredo succeeded in becoming Don, his coglioni would always be in Roth's pocket. If a power struggle broke out over succession, so much the better--divide and conquer. And, with Frankie a hunted man, the Rosatos would take over New York. He couldn't miss. But when the murder failed, Roth had to go to Plan B--lure Michael to Cuba--and he needed Fredo to at least stay on board.

Hence, the Ritz cracker with chopped liver. Michael went so far as to keep it Kosher for Hyman, which really agitated poor Frankie, who just wanted some peppers and sardines.

Peppers and salsiccia

Also, Roth's sixth sense about the $2 million should have immediately sent tremors though Mike becuase it reinforced that there was a traitor in the family. So, I wonder why Roth said it.

Indeed, Roth had no organization. He was a mob financial advisor with tremendous influence not only in financial areas, but also when it came to mortaility issues.

IMHO it is more likely that Fredo DID know it was going to be a hit and he lied to Michael when confronted (just like Carlo tried to do). I also agree that Roth or Ola led Fredo to believe that Pentangeli, or someone would be set up as a patsy, and that no one but Fredo would ever know what happened. But, as Michael put it, the assassination attempt failed, and the asssins were killed, as Michael said, by "somebody close to us...inside..very, very scared they botched it." It is also noteworthy when Michael and Tom run down the list of potential suspects, Michael makes the point that Rocco and Neri are "businessmen" but that Fredo is "weak and stupid."

By the time Ola calls Fredo, Michael had left Tahoe suddenly and without explanation; Tom was temporarily in charge of everything including Fredo and his men; Geary was about to be compromised; and the identity of the mastermind of the hit was still considered a mystery. Fredo, with a guilty conscience anyway, was now rightfully afraid that Michael would find him out. In short, Fredo now knows it is possible that Michael will win. Ola tries to reassure him while simultaneously using him as a mole to inform him whether or not Pentangeli is on the level in making the deal with the Rosatos. Fredo truthfully says he doesn't know anything, and then tellingly says that "you got me in deep enough already."

I don't think Roth "lured" Michael to Cuba, I think it was Michael's plan to go to Cuba all along. The Cuba deal was the big thing Roth and Michael had going and the reason Michael initially denied Pentangeli permission to welch on Clemenza's deal with the Rosatos. Had Michael been assassinated, and Pentangeli set up as the killer, Roth would have reached out to Tom and Fredo and no doubt convinced them that this new investment would garner more strength and money for the Corleones in the wake of Michael's tragic death. Further such an arrangement would forever protect Fredo from being found out by Tom, Neri or Rocco.

I can hear Lee Strausberg laying it on. "Michael's death?...
a tragedy. I always thought my time would come before his, and that is why I had planned to leave everything to him. Now, I am keeping the offer I made to Michael ... and am giving it to you." They would have both bought into that, and of course they would have been Roth's targets in Havana insetad of Michael.

Yeah, you're right about that. My mother, God rest her soul, used to insist it was sardines. I think because she loved them so much. It's kind of an inside joke within my family.

There are a lot of good points in this thread. Nicely done, TB et al.
I can't address each of them for the post would become an essay.

However I just can't see Fredo having an active or important role in the conspiracy to kill Michael in Tahoe. I don't think Roth or Ola would have entrusted him with the details. I also think that while Fredo was quite happy to be doing what he thought was important business behind his brother's back, ultimately he wouldn't have sanctioned Michael's murder.

The late night call from Johnny Ola and the aborted heart to heart over the banana daiquiri confirm that for me. Fredo got in over his head, used by people who played on his jealousy and resentment. A useful idiot.

The seeming reconciliation between the two brothers also makes me think that Fredo was unaware of all of Roth's plans. Fredo won't let go of Michael; he hugs him fiercely and with abandon. If Fredo had honestly wanted his brother dead, why would he have bothered to be so demonstrative. He was seeking forgiveness for his mistakes.

I think that Roth did have an organization. The character was based on Lansky, who also had an organization. It wasn't as flashy as some of the other families but it was , at least during the fifties and sixties, as powerful as some of the better known families.

Roth probably didn't have the muscle to go toe to toe with the Corleones (either in NY or Tahoe) and that wasn't his style anyway. Hence the long drawn out seduction of Fredo which leads to an attempt on Michael's life and the low level sniping between Pentangeli and the Rosatos in NY. Roth hoped to keep Michael off balance dealing with internal matters long enough to get the $2 million investment and have Michael assassinated and rebels blamed.

Roth would then have gotten more money for his casinos, protected his interests from an aggressive rival and avenged his buddy Moe Green.

Well it was a small essay anyway...

Damn good thread and discussion here.

I'm with the crowd that thinks Fredo was in deeper than the movie and even the novel let on. While back in Tahoe after finding out that Pentageli is indeed alive, Michael asks Fredo if he has any information that would help him in the Senate iunvestigation. In this conversation, Fredo ultimately tells Michael that he was "stepped over" for command of the Family, and that he didn't really care that Don Vito wanted it that way. (To further accentuate Fredo's sub-par intelligence, and therefore his unfitness for command of the Family, the excuses he offered Michael were fully pathetic). That attitude from Fredo sealed it for me that he was in way deep and simply HAD to be eliminated. Michael made this clear as well by informing Fredo that he was completely disowning him.

Once again, great discussion and observations. Thoroughly enjoyable and informative.

Welcome, Lucchese, glad you're enjoying it here. Hope to see many more good posts from you.

Grazie, TB. Been a GF fan for years, but only recently discovered this site. Great stuff. Hope to contribute to the discussions.

Welcome Luchese. Looking forward to your posts.

Lilo, let's take another look at this long-standing controversy, this time from the viewpoint of Fredo's motivation:

He told Michael in the boathouse: "He [Johnny Ola] said there'd be something in it for me." Given Fredo's burning resentment of Michael, it's credible that his motivation was revenge. So, he probably didn't press Ola too hard on the benefits to him. Ola may have told him that Michael wouldn't be harmed, that all they wanted to do was kidnap him and talk sense to him. Fredo would have closed his ears to the speciousness of that tale because all he wanted was for Michael to be taken down a few pegs. And, when he said on the phone to Ola, "You guys lied to me," he may have meant that they'd promised there'd be no shooting.

But: suppose what was in it for Fredo was to become the new Don? That viewpoint is supported by his next statements in the boathouse:

Michael: I've always taken care of you, Fredo.
Fredo (voice rising): I'm your older brother, Mike, and I was passed over.
Michael: That's the way Pop wanted it.
Fredo (screaming) It ain't the way I wanted it!

Even Fredo had to know that he'd never get the Donship while Michael lived. So, he had to be an active, knowing, willing participant in the plot to kill Michael at Tahoe. And, "you guys lied to me" may have meant that they'd assured him that Michael would be dead.

If you believe, as I do, that Fredo was a key player in the Tahoe shooting, you also must believe he had to be a part of the Havana treachery:

First reason: blackmail. Ola says on the phone: "Your brother's not gonna know we talked"--a thinly veiled threat. Fredo's coglioni were in their pockets.

Second reason: greed. I'm guessing that, after Michael met with Roth in Miami, Roth called Fredo: "Your brother got lucky at Tahoe. But the important thing is that he thinks Pentangeli was behind it. He doesn't suspect me--or you. And he thinks our deal is still good. Why, he's agreed to come to Havana and bring $2 million as a 'gift for the President.' I'm the most powerful gringo in Cuba. As soon as I get the $2 million, I'll have Batista arrange to have Michael whacked, and make it look like he was killed by the rebels. And then you'll be the Don. All you have to do is go along" [as if Fredo had any choice].

And (breathes deeply), let me go a step farther:

Fredo's active, knowing role in the Tahoe assassination attempt may have been to admit the two gunmen to the estate, lead them to Michael's bedroom window, and help them escape. But, escape would have been problematic, given the size of the estate and the high level of security. The gunmen easily could have been captured, and forced to tell what they knew--implicating Fredo and Roth.

So, I'm guessing, to protect himself and Roth, Fredo killed the Tahoe shooters--dead men tell no tales. Some people on this board, seeing a red mark on the throat of one of the gunmen, conclude that he was stabbed or garrotted. Not even Luca Brasi could have taken on two trained, armed killers with a garrotte or a knife, much less Fredo. But I'm guessing that the red mark was a mistake--and that Fredo shot the two gunmen, the sound of his gunshots masked in the general cacaphony of machine gun rounds.

TB, I'm with you 100% up until the "breathes deeply" paragraph. The timing involved in such a scenario is tough for me to get my arms around. Another thing that I might consider, though, is that Fredo, if noticed in the area of the gunmen, could simply have said that he was out for an evening walk, and seeing the gunmen immediately knew that a hit on Michael was on. So he took action by killing them both, and would be viewed as a hero and savior, thereby garnering a tremendous amount of trust to use in taking Michael out at a later time.

TB, I doubt that Fredo or anyone gunning down the gunmen amidst the cacophany of machine gun fire doesn't work. The gunmen were found a distance away from Mike's house in what appears to be a drainage ditch. The geometry doesn't work.

Also, Fredo in a crisis? Let alone with the job to murder two people? Remember Fredo during the attempted murder of his father?

Lucchese and Olivant: I admit it's a big stretch to imagine Fredo as the killer of the Tahoe gunmen. And I qualified it by saying that I was guessing. But I offer two rejoinders:

First, FFC and Puzo made Fredo almost a cartoonishly dumb character. But a silver lining in our perception of his terminal simplicity is that we were all the more shocked when he turned out to be the traitor. No matter what his role, he was pivotal to an assassination plot that very nearly worked.

Second, none of us, including me, has ever definitively answered the question of who killed the Tahoe shooters. This is one attempt. If there's a better theory, let's hear it (again).

Lansky never had an organization of any substance because he didn't need one. He had partnerships with the most powerful men in organized crime. As long as they made money together, their organizations supplied Lansky with capital, protection--and muscle when needed. He and Charlie Luciano were like brothers throught their lifetimes. Though Lansky didn't sit on the Commission, he sat with the Commission, advising and making allies of the other Dons. For example, when he wanted to move slot machines into New Orleans, he brought Frank Costello on as a partner. Costello's presence helped smooth things over with Carlos Marcello, the Mafia boss of Louisiana. And while Batista put Lansky in charge of Havana gaming, he made sure to bring Santos Trafficante, the Mafia boss of Florida, as his partner. Trafficante, in turn, protected Lansky's gaming empire in Broward County, FL.

Lansky had a Mafia partner who was at his side for many years--Vincent (Jimmy Blue Eyes) Alo, the model for Johnny Ola (the name is an anagram). But Alo wasn't a toady like Ola--he was a real partner. Alo's closeness to Lansky was a physical reminder to independents and wayward Mob types that Lansky was protected by the Mafia.

According to Lansky's biographer, Robert Lacey, Lansky's modus operandi contributed to his longevity (81) and peaceful death: he never held the physical assets or army of gunsels that would have engendered fear and jealousy among Mob bosses--and that would have made them want to whack him.

According to Deana, the gunmen were killed somewhere in the proximity of she and Fredo's house. "Right out my window! I want to get out of here! They're lying there dead!" Fredo is rather frantically dragging her away, assumingly trying to keep her quiet(?)

And I don't think it's a stretch to think that Fredo had an assistant. I think the two of them could have overcome the seemingly non-linear geometry of the situation, dragging the bodies from outside his (Fredo's) window to the nearby drainage.

Well said.

TB's analysis seems plausible, but.

Was Fredo really such a good actor in the boathouse?

When he says "I swear to god I didn't know it was going to be a hit. ", he really seems to mean it.
Compare it to Fredo's nervous, bad acting in Cuba.
I think, in the boathouse scene, Fredo is emotionally naked. He speaks frankly about his frustrations as well about his innocence regarding the hit. Just from what I see of Fredo, I believe every word of his in the boathouse scene.

I agree and disagree TB...
Certainly I agree with all you wrote about Lanksy's tendency to seek partnerships with various Mob bosses. His willingness to let others grab the spotlight certainly contributed to his longevity and general avoidance of law enforecement.

But....he definitely had a group of his own. Initially this would have been the Bug and Meyer mob of the twenties, part of which later morphed into what would be called Murder Inc. But Lanksy also had his own personal gambling casinos, horsetracks and nightclubs in Florida, Kentucky and upstate NY. Then of course all the other business and interests which you mention. He was in partnerships, to be sure. But he was more than just an investor.

There were differences between Jewish OC and the Italian versions, the most relevant here being that post WW2 we just don't see new young Jewish influx into OC. So Lansky's group gradually shrunk and/or went legit.

As Jack Dragna said "Meyer's got a Jewish family built along the same lines as our thing. But his family's all over the country. He's got guys like Lou Rhody and Dalitz, Doc Stacher, Gus Greenbaum,, sharp ******** guys, good businessmen, and they know better than to try to ******** with us."

I guess I think that Fredo's primary motivation was to rub Michael's nose in it- sort of like 'See you're supposed to be so smart and so important but I'M the one who closed this big deal for the Family'.

He was definitely seething with resentment over real and imagined slights. His little "Did you ever once think about that?" screed indicates that he's been holding stuff inside too long.

But his behavior post Tahoe shooting indicates a man who's not only afraid he'll be found out by his brother and Family but also a man who realized belatedly that he got played for a buffoon by someone much smarter.

The films go out of their way to depict Fredo as generally not up to snuff as mobster material so I can't imagine him getting the drop on two trained killers or having the stones to kill two men personally.

The question which no one can really answer (has FFC ever spoken on it) is what exactly did Fredo do for Ola/Roth and who killed the gunmen.

I am still thinking it through but I've always wondered if a few of Fredo's men may have been Roth loyalists. I can certainly see Fredo being gullible enough to take on employees on Roth's say-so.

Although Fredo was certainly not overly bright I also can't quite see him thinking that in the event of Michael's demise that Tom, Rocco, Neri, Pentangeli or others would accept or promote Fredo as Boss.

"I'm your older brother, Mike--and I was passed over...It ain't the way I wanted it..I'm smart, not dumb...I can run things..."


No limit to the self-deception of those with a surfeit of ambition and a paucity of brains.

Murder Inc. was formed by Lepke Buchalter. Lansky may have used their hitters from time to time, but their biggest user (and occasional supplier of shooters) was Albert Anastasia. Go here:

http://www.gangsterbb.net/threads/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=367602&page=1&fpart=3


True. Lansky, Siegel, Dalitz, Zwillman, Landsburgh, etc., went on to build Vegas. Money washed away their sins, except Lansky's. The government continued to have an, uh, "erection" for him.


Depends how you define "family." They were his partner in various enterprises (like Vegas hotels, Bahamas casinos, racetracks, etc.). But they weren't part of a permanent mob that took orders from Lansky, though they may have deferred to him as a senior partner in their mutual enterprises.

Supposedly Lanksy and Luciano had proposed the idea of an independent syndicate trouble-shooting squad. It was determined that Siegel, Buchalter and Anastasia would oversee it. People were leery of having Siegel as formal boss over it because of his closeness to Lanksy and his general instability. So Siegel was dropped. But some of the gunmen who became known as "Murder Inc" hitters were Bug and Meyer alumni. It was Lanksy's gunmen who murdered Maranzano.

http://www.carpenoctem.tv/mafia/lansky.html




Indeed they did....



I don't want to parse definitions too much. Certainly Lansky's group was organized and operated differently than most Italian dominated criminal enterprises. But I think the evidence showed that Lanksy gave orders to his people, expected them to be followed and had an organization , albeit smaller and older by the fifties and sixties, that was seen as a separate group by other traditional Mafia families.

The rosetta stone for this discussion IMHO is the meeting between Michael and Fredo in Havana. Mike pointedly asks him if he knew Johnny Ola, and Fredo lied to him. Then when they go out for the afternoon, and Fredo is loosened up by a couple of banana daquaris he seems to be remorseful and is having second thoughts about what he did. After Michael confides in him about the upcoming attempt on his life Fredo says some telling things. He says "Why couldn't wehave spenttime like this before?" Before what? Obviously his treachery. Then even more telling "I was mad at you!" Again for what? and finally, the very freudian statement that sometimes he thinks his Mama's jest that he was left on the doorstep by gypsies might be true.
In other words he is not a true brother to Michael.

This scene has guilt written all through it.

Ecellent points, DT...
I am not arguing that Fredo did not betray Michael or did not try to hide the betrayal or feel guilty about it. As I wrote Fredo had some massive resentments and envy of Michael.

But I just can't see him in an active role in the conspiracy.
Whatever Fredo did, did he know he was acting against his brother's interests?

Absolutely he did. And he was glad to do so. And that alone is enough for Michael to damn him.

But I can't believe that the Fredo who is unable to defend or avenge his father, who has a nervous breakdown and is sent away during the Five Family war, who isn't smart enough to figure out that Michael, not Tom or the Don, is the boss during the meeting with Moe Green, who lets Moe Green bully him and even beat him, and who can't even successfully handle his wife, is going to be someone Roth or Ola put any sort of serious trust in, let alone be capable of killing two mobsters by himself.

Is some of this possible? Sure. I just don't think it's likely.

I think that Ola and later Roth cultivated Fredo for a very long time, listened to his grievances and gave him support. When the time came they asked him for some help on "the big deal".

Now what the exact nature of the help was, I don't think anyone can know for sure.
Perhaps it was something like "Vouch for these new guys out of NY to join your team" or "Let these guys from Ola's crew stay behind when he leaves, they might need to talk to Michael first thing next morning" or "Hey we're arriving by boat launch, can you draw up a general map of your brother's compound" or maybe something like "Can you introduce us to Rocco"...

I agree with Lilo that Fredo did not committ Mike's attempted murder. I believe that he unknowingly facilitated it. He was a dunce on both sides the equation. He was incapable of handling something as complex as a murder; he was also incapable of handling the pathos associated with such facilitation and figuring out the important angles.

On the other hand, while Lansky did have associates who may have acceded to his suggestion that someone be murdered, Lansky did not have an organization with him at its pinnacle from where he dished out life and death.

Well, I suppose if I watched the same film 5 times a day 7 days a week 52 weeks a year...I'd be placing totally new lights on the same old scenarios every so often as well.

FFC could probably make not only a GFIV but a full blown HBO series based on the sometimes incredibly insane stuff that has emerged here over the past several years.

And if you do not mind, I'd like to once again add that I believe that:
a) Michael was RIGHT to have Fredo killed, and
b) Fredo didn't know

Apple

Apple's back and we're gonna be in trouble
Hey,la,dee,la, Apple's back.
If you see her commin'
Better run out on the double
Hey,la,dee,la, Apple's back.

How ya doin Apple?

That makes sense Lilo.

Hello, Apple.

...how else can an old guy fill his time? Cashing Social Security checks and clipping coupons just doesn't complete my day...

Between watching "the same film 5 times a day 7 days a week 52 weeks out of the year," how do you find time to cook, eat, sleep, read, post to the boards and watch Cavalleria Rusticana, Laura, True Confessions, Goodfellas and Casino?


I've always said that you were a multi talented man Turnbull.

Geez, I watch it a lot more often than that!

...clean living, righteous thoughts, abstinence...and a lack of interest in anything worthwhile, I guess.

The first step in the 12 step program:

HELLO, MY NAME IS DONTOMASSO, AND I AM A GODFATHERHOLIC!

Hell, that's not that difficult to admit...sign me up!

Well, it's on AMC right now if anyone wants to watch.

If? If?

" 'If' is the middle of 'Life' " -- Col. Walter Kurtz (Apocalypse Now).

DC will you be my sponsor?

I surely thought that you would want Apple to sponser you!

I think she is still in denial, so that won't work.

Well, I'm watching it again right now, so I guess I'll have to join the support group.

We should include Michael in the 12 Step Program. I'd like to be there when he gets to the First Step: "I admit that I was powerless..."

"Hello everyone. My name's Apple and I am the facilitator of this Godfatherholic group.

Yes, these black leather thigh high boots, this black leather bodice, and this riding whip is what I'll be wearing and using during our meetings.

Tonight we'll begin by your telling me why you think you are addicted to the Godfather. Remember. There is a right and a wrong reason. So, be careful. I'm pretty good with this whip. And remember also, I've cured bigger addicts than you Dontomasso."

There is no place to introduce myself, but I posted here about two or three years ago, and for some reason, stopped. But here I am again. And all I know about Fredo is that this is the guy who couldn't get his gun out in time to wing the two hitmen who tried to kill his father in GF1. Unless Moe Green, Johnny Ola or Meeetsah Beeg himself (Hyman Roth) grew him a pair, I doubt it was Fredo who killed the two hitmen in Vegas. For all anyone knows, it was Johnny. He'd been there that day, right?

DT, you bring up that fredo may have hired the hitters in gf 2, i have a few questions ( i'm not questioning your theory ) 1) if fredo did hire them, would'nt there be some kind of paper trail for fredo to cut them the money to them or would he have the funds avaialable to him to pay in cash? 2) if fredo did whack them how did he get the stones to whack them or did this come with the exposure he had with mike from gf1 to gf 2? 3) why was the button that was sent to kill roth one we know nothing about? wouldn't mike send someone to do the job that would finish with bungling the job? 4) after the scene in gf 1, where fredo trys to undermine mike, could moe reported this to roth and that's when they started to work on fredo? 5) how could have fredo contracted 2 hitters for such a high profile hit like mike's without it setting off some bells somewhere - unless roth suppiled them as 2 unknown buttons???? Observations - when he didn't know how to say banana dauquari, this could have been a ruse on fredo's part, to lure mike into a false sense of security, because the backdrop was still being set.

sorry, for the longwindedness.

Petrie, I was the one who suggested that Fredo may have been responsible for whacking the two gunmen. But, truth be told, I can't prove it or even argue persuasively.

"Who killed the Tahoe gunmen?" is one of the most often-debated subjects here. No one, least of all me, has come up with a satisfactory answer. It's one of those leaps of faith that directors and writers impose on us periodically to keep the plot moving.

sorry turnbull.

I surely thought that you would want Apple to sponser you! [/quote]

"Hello everyone. My name's Apple and I am the facilitator of this Godfatherholic group.

Yes, these black leather thigh high boots, this black leather bodice, and this riding whip is what I'll be wearing and using during our meetings.

Tonight we'll begin by your telling me why you think you are addicted to the Godfather. Remember. There is a right and a wrong reason. So, be careful. I'm pretty good with this whip. And remember also, I've cured bigger addicts than you Dontomasso." [/quote]


My problem is always this: When I get to the belief in a "Higher Power," I always say
"The Higher Power is Vito Corleone," and I fall right off the wagon.

TB, how did Roth know Frankie would be there (at the communion?)

Frankie was Michael's subordinate. It was a command performance.

Plus, Roth supported the Roasatos and he figured Frankie would want to ask for Mike's intervention. In fact, he probbaly hoped that Frankie and Mike would be at odds.

after studying the whole Neri/Rocco situation, i think Rocco was the triggerman on the Tahoe assasins, Michael mentioned "if what I think is happening, has aready happened theyre dead already', which was very vauge and he did not elaborate at all about what he "thinks" happened. and subsequent actions toward him (Fredo)(many go unnoticed), then eventually sending him on a suicide mission to kill Roth,some of the reasons that lead me to think Rocco was involved to some degree.....Any thoughts? please post em'!

heres a good thread thats related to this subject

http://www.gangsterbb.net/threads/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=594134#Post594134

correction (Fredo) i meant (Rocco) im sure most members knew what i meant sorry

great insights

Turnbull,
Your third point is way too much assumption Fredo did NOT say Ola took him to the show, he said he "TOLD HIM" about the show. then said Old Man Roth wasn't into that kind of stuff. I do agree with you guys that Ola and Fredo knew eachother from Vegas, how close, I have to think he wasn't close enough to go on the boat back to the us WITH ROTH. Roth wouldn't be so stupid as to be seen leaving with Fredo after killing Mike. Ideally which is what they were hoping to accomplish on that trip. If Roth and Fredo were working together, they would lay low for a bit incase Tom Hagen or the Mother tried to seek Justice somehow. Remember Tom was VERY loyal to the family. The Corleone's were all he knew as he was homeless and very sick as a child when the family took him in, and they always treated him like a smarter less vicious ally and a son. I really think Tom didn't know where Fredo was just that he was safe. Fredo probably just went home by himself and hid out for awhile

The exact dialog from the script is:

FREDO

JOHNNY OLA told me about this place. He brought me here. I didn't believe him -- but seein' is believin', huh?

Then how did Fredo get to NY in the same 48-hour-or-less time frame that Michael got to Vegas?


Roth's plan was to have his pals in the Cuban government have Michael assassinated in a government car on his way back to the hotel after the Presidential New Year's Eve party. Neither Roth nor Fredo would have been anywhere near that government car when the assassination occurred. The major purpose of Roth's speech at his birthday party, promising to turn over his Havana interests to Michael, was to establish an alibi for Roth--"what, me assassinate Michael? Why, I loved the kid like my own son. I was gonna turn everything over to him...just ask any of those thugs who heard me say it at my birthday party.


Then why did Tom say he was in New York, especially since "home" to Fredo was the Tahoe estate?

Straight from the movie I google the script:

Geary: Hey, Freddie. Where did you find this place? Fredo: Johnny Ola told me about this place. He brought me here. I didn't believe it but seeing is believing, huh! Man: I see it and I still don't believe it! Fredo: 50 bucks Pat. Old man Roth would never come here, but Johnny knows these places like the back of his hand.

Sorry I hadn't seen the movie in a very long time, forgot the line where he said "he brought me here. I just remembered "Johnny Ola told me about this place." and "Old man Roth would never come here"

Im still unclear about how Fredo got home doesn't it just show him running away??

Fredo sort of vacillates between uselessness and borderline cunning in Pt. 2. Fredo may of had enough money in his pocket to get back to Florida and some stashed in New York where he went to ground. I guess we're to infer at least this much from the fact that Fredo did get out on his own and back to New York.

I think though, given Michael's vindictiveness, that if he thought Rocco was in on the Tahoe assassination attempt that he would of have had him killed sooner once he was safely back home. Also, if Michael really suspected Rocco would he of left the Family in the hands of Tom?

We're never shown how Fredo got out of Havana. But, given the chaos caused by Batista's sudden abdication, it seems clear to me that he could only have gotten to NY 48 hours or less via some prearranged private means. Just as Michael had a plane waiting for him, Roth had a boat. And that's why I infer Fredo was on it.

Rocco's role in the Tahoe betrayal and shooting, if there was one, is truly a mystery to many of us here. Rocco was in charge of security for the compound--and the security failed. No one has ever explained how the Tahoe shooters died, leading some to conclude that Rocco killed them to keep them from talking. That would imply that he set up the Tahoe shooting. Of course, there's no proof of any of that.

Then Michael sent him on that one-way mission to kill Roth? Why? Because it was punishment for Rocco's role in the Tahoe shooting? And, Rocco accepted the mission. Why? Because he was trying to get back into Michael's good graces?

I'm not convinced that Rocco had any role in the Tahoe betrayal, but that doesn't mean I totally rule him out. One of those nice mysteries that FFC and Puzo left us with.

But how would Fredo know Roth had a boat unless he was in on the plan the assassinate Michael? Also, Michael told Fredo that Roth was already dead.

About the Tahoe shooters, weren't their throats slit? I'm thinking how did someone get close enough to slit their throats while these guys still had their guns on them?

The only reasonable explanation is that there was a backup team. They may have learned of the assassins' failure on the spot and so they killed them as punishment. Also, having their throats cut might have been a symbolic gesture to point out that they couldn't talk anymore..

The assassination of the assassins makes no sense.

It's unrealistic to think that anyone could take out 2 hired killers by cutting their throats. Even a surprise attack by the Family traitor would only kill one.

Why have a backup team? Obviously, it wasn't to make sure the mission succeeded, since it failed and they did nothing to prevent that. If Roth was so concerned about the first team talking, why hire them at all? Why have a plan that involved smuggling trusted people onto the compound to kill untrusted ones? Why not just have the backup team carry out the mission?

Between the drapes and the dead assassins, that sequence was just not thought through, at least to the level of scrutiny given to it by us crazy fans.

Going back to Fredo's escape from Cuba, I am not so sure Roth would have taken him out. In the first place by then Roth knew that Michael was aware that Roth had organized the hit, and it would have been a small leap for Michael to figure out Fredo had been the traitor in the family. With Roth's assassination plan gone to hell with the Castro uprising, Fredo was of no more use to Roth, and it would make more sense that he be eliminated.

I agree Woltz. It is highly improbable that two hitmen are going to expose themselves to being murdered from which we infer that they must have been taken completely by surprise from behind. Also, why use a knife (and invite all the variables that can accrue to its use) when it's obviously a situation in which one uses a pistol with a silencer.

Also, remember the line: "I don't recognize them. They must be out of New York." Ridiculous.

Perhaps they were killed via silencers and then had their throats slit post mortem as a message. Some killers do have a flair for the dramatic.

The logistics of having an assassination of the original assassins is more daunting to explain. Either the original assassins are to be fully trusted or not trusted at all. This course of action suggests a gray area in between that would not make much sense, as it still involves a degree of trust that they won't simply go tell Michael "Don Corleone, XXX approached us to try to kill you."

dt, you raise an intriguing point. Logic is on your side. But, Roth was in a coma when he got on that boat, and he was in no position to tell his rescuers, "Screw Fredo, he's of no use to me anymore." Also, I'm guessing that if Roth's plan had gone as anticipated--if Michael had been assassinated on his way back to his hotel, and Roth hadn't had his stroke and been attacked by the bodyguard, and Batista hadn't abdicated--Roth would have still sat on his throne in his hotel suite and tut-tutted about poor Michael's unfortunate demise. Fredo would have accompanied his beloved brother's body to Nevada, and tried to assume leadership of the family (which is probably what Roth and Ola promised him in return for his treason).

EDITED OUT SPAM - SC

Fredo was involved deep into it all. I don't believe for one second that he didn't know they was going to try and kill Michael. Fredo was just covering his ass when Ola called. If he wasn't in deep then he would not know about Roth having somebody in the senate. My thing has always been, who killed the two hit men after the failed attempt on Michael's life?

I'm thinking Rocco May have been in on it. First he tells Michael he can't promise to keep them alive and then he dismissing them as guys from NY he don't know. Shifting blame on Pantangelli. Also mike sent Rocco on a suicide mission. In the movie it is not revealed but for sure it was more than one traitor because no way Fredo's kills two hired killers alone.

There can only be one other theory. Michael had more traitors on his team. Seemed like Mike didn't really trust Rocco at this point.

Digging deeper, I have to wonder who got Roth out of Cuba? Ola was dead, and Batista's people were running for their own lives. I suppose it could have been someone from Batista's camp, but if so that person would have had to know of the Fredo/Roth alliance. Then again hasn't it always been assumed that Questadt's being at the Batista meeting was some kind of mistake? Maybe it wasn't!

I agree with several others in this thread about the depth of Fredo's involvement in the assassination. I feel like, to whatever extent we can trust the film makers to have given us clues about how the attempted hit on Michael happened, it just has to be Fredo (or I suppose "his men", on Fredo's orders) who opened the drapes and later killed the two gunmen, however implausible that seems. And thus Fredo had to have known it was a hit. Any other theory would have to be invented out of whole cloth, based on nothing.

Although I can't immediately put my finger on a particular reason, I always had a strong impression that Roth's ties to Cuba stretched back decades, perhaps even to prohibition times (Cuba obviously being a prime source for the 'rumrunning' racket back in those days). If that were true I'm sure he would have had the 'local resources' to escape from Cuba when needed - more so than perhaps anyone else caught on the island at the time?

That sounds plausible to me...

Yes I would agree, his strong ties to Cuba he more than likely knew how to get out especially with the rebellion starting up he had to have known "other ways" to get out if Batista was overtaken.

Roth: "This county's had rebels for the last fifty years -- it's in their blood, believe me, I know. I've been coming here since the 20's. We were running molasses out of Havana when you were a baby -- the trucks, owned by your father."

Aha! Of course, thanks. Cool scene - that would explain my "strong impression" then...

Note to self: when you begin to forget the actual lines, it's time to once again dust off that boxed set and set an evening aside... or book yourself in for a brain scan.

Turnbull,

I always enjoy reading your posts. Very informative and well thought out.

The wild-card in the Roth theories is that when Roth went to the hospital, he wasn't faking. He was about to get smothered with a pillow and wasn't making any defensive moves. I'm not sure how far this mitigates his craftiness, but to a certain extent, he wasn't faking some things.

Thank you!

Roth had suffered a stroke in his hotel room, so he wasn't even conscious when brought to the hospital. He wasn't in a position to be crafty.

IMO, it comes down to greed: Michael, greedy for Roth's "legitimate" Havana interests, blinded himself to Roth's craftiness. Roth, greedy for the $2 million, blinded himself to Michael's being onto his game. Michael won, but by a hair.

TB, are you sure about that. I think that, plain and simple, Michael wanted Roth dead. That's why he told Fredo that Roth wouldn't see the new year. I think Michael's Cuba sojourn was only intended to get rid of Roth.

olivant, yes I agree that Michael wanted Roth dead and he truly thought he wouldn't see the new year but like TB said he didn't plan on Roth having the stroke either.

Oli, sure, Michael wanted Roth dead. But only after he found out who was the traitor in his family. I think that was the main purpose of his trip to Cuba.

And, yes, Michael had good reason to want Roth dead after he concluded that Roth was behind the Tahoe attack. But, the decision to have him whacked in Cuba may have been prompted by his knowledge that Roth was planning to have him whacked after the Presidential New Year's Eve party--kill or be killed. Whacking Roth in Cuba would have been more dangerous than having him killed in the US.

Maybe, but that is exactly what Michael tried to do. That bodyguard guy wacked Ola and was going to wack Roth, but Batista's cops got in the way.

Actually in a way Castro taking over was a lucky break for Michael. Roth lost a ton of money, and influence.

Thanks for the link reference

Reinforce "Pop had Genco -- look what I got" He let Michael perjure himself, very nearly ended in prison

Yes. I sympathize with Tom to a point. But, I draw the line there. He tells Michael, "Our people with the New York detectives said Pentangeli was half-dead, scared, talking out loud about how you betrayed him...
"Our people"??? How about you, Tom: why didn't you know about it????

Vito was slipping If anybody is to be blamed, first and foremost, it is Vito for appointing Tom as consiglieri
Michael's concern was justified and in times, detrimental too

Tom had strange wealth of information, Fredo was talking to him yet another failure of his instead of finding out what he's got under his fingernails, I reckon Tom says gleefully! payback time!!
“No way we can get to him. If we don't it's up to five counts of perjury”
"Fredo says he doesn't know anything I believe him"
“Roth played this one beautifully” ”

Now I believe it was Tom who opened the drapes in Michael and Kay's bedroom!
Fredo is a pimp He never could have outfought Michael but I didn't know until this day that it was Tom all along!

Extract:
Very informative thread indeed

Sure thing Fredo was undoubtedly in with Roth and Ola far more deeply in his treacherous betrayal of Michael

I acknowledge the above is may have been scenario....My queries please and somewhat confusing take!

• Did Roth and Ola know that they will never see the New Year?
• They seemed pretty slack considering how Michael's bodyguard, Bussetta was able to just walk into Ola's hotel room and killed him
• How and why would Fredo have contacts in the Cuban government?
• Why would Roth / Ola organise or feel the necessity for Fredo to have contacts in the Cuban government
• Besides Fredo could and wouldn't have already told Roth / Ola straight after Michael told Fredo “Hyman Roth will never see the New Year” unless Fredo's guilty conscience pricked him!
• Why would Fredo wait until the Presidential Palace New Year reception and then tell his contacts in the Cuban government even if he had any unless because of Roth's no show
• Anyway, Roth and Ola should have been already dead?
• More importantly no one knew of Roth's stroke, at the New Year reception [however acknowledge the military could have gone to Roth's hotel to 'check' on him if Roth's no show was detected and found out Roth was in the hospital]
• Then again why would the military go to rescue Roth as at that stage if my memory serves me right, Batista had not resigned his presidency unless the military after informing Batista of his untenable position due to the rebels taking over, went to take care of Batista's old friend and associate Roth

As regards Tom the Consigliere and lawyer, Tom seemed clueless "Duh-h-h, Tom!" - or it was all an act for aspiring Don Tom!

If Tom was being tentative, perhaps trying to protect Fredo but in the process let his one and only client Michael perjure himself, who very nearly could have ended up in prison indeed if Michael had not brought Frankie Pentangeli's brother Vincenzo over

Fredo kept the trust Michael entrusted but couldn't continue wanted to be Don

Lana, not everything in that scene was logical or even credible--FFC took directoral license to enhance the drama, as he did throughout the Trilogy. Keep in mind the broad themes:

1. Greed motivated both Michael and Roth: Michael, greedy for Roth's Cuban gaming empire; Roth for the $2 million and the opportunity to put Michael in the killing-bottle in Cuba. Greed makes people careless; or as Vito said, "Women and children can afford to be careless, but not men."
2. Corollary to the above: They underestimated each other: Michael, initially thinking Roth was a harmless old man; Roth, thinking Michael still didn't know he was behind the Tahoe shooting. Michael was the more clever because he knew, right after the shooting that Roth was behind it.

Those themes run throughout the Trilogy. Greed for money made Pauilie Gatto think he could get away with betraying Vito; greed for revenge blinded Carlo to the fact that his beating of Connie would identify him as Sonny's betrayer; greed for respect and status was Fredo's undoing. And, Vito underestimated Solozzo and Tattaglia; Sol and Mac underestimated Michael; Sonny and Tom underestimated Carlo; Carlo underestimated Michael; Michael underestimated Altobello; Vincent and Michael underestimated Mosca, etc., etc.

Keep in mind, too, that Michael brought the bodyguard, Buscetta, to Cuba in part to fool Roth into thinking that he still had no clue about who was behind the Tahoe shooting, hence he didn't bring Rocco and/or Neri. Roth and Ola, seemingly protected by Batista's forces, thought they had nothing to fear from Buscetta.

Fredo had not been outed as the traitor in the family until the superman show

I believe, Fredo had plenty time and probably opportunities to tell Roth / Ola

• Michael had figured Roth was the one who engineered the Tahoe bedroom shooting, failing which Roth had now arranged for Michael to be killed in the Cuban military car taking Michael back to his hotel after the New Year party
• Michael had arranged for Roth to never see the New Year

It seems to me for whatever reason Fredo chose not to go running to Roth / Ola with this pivotal information “keeping the trust Michael had entrusted” when the brothers were having drinks

However when the senate hearing came around Fredo withheld all the information that could have helped Michael because the jealousy, resentment was back and the misguided allure of becoming Don Fredo - something in it for me - was too much pull to resist

Also if and once Michael got into that Cuban military car - Bussetta, Neri, Rocco – no one, nothing would have saved Michael!

Tom took his time coming to see Michael because he was killing the assassins!

Nobody until they actually saw Michael alive would have thought Michael survived the shooting
Who can that sort of machine gun fire in such a confined space of a bedroom?!

So the dead assassins is another anomaly Whodunit and why

What are we to make of it?!

Comical